Rasmussen: McCain edging Obama on economic issues

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll remains remarkably stable despite the economic turmoil of the last three days — and their internals may explain why.  John McCain retains a one-point lead over Barack Obama, a result that hasn’t changed in three days.  However, McCain has taken an edge on a key issue that explains why the credit crisis hasn’t damaged his standing:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday is unchanged with John McCain attracting 48% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 47% (see recent daily results). Both men are viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters.

McCain leads 58% to 38% among those who regularly shop at Wal-Mart while Obama leads 61% to 36% among those who don’t frequent the retail giant. Overall, Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 a year while McCain leads among those with higher earnings. Among white voters, Obama has the edge only among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and his advantage among those lower income white voters is just four percentage points.

Investor confidence has stabilized—at least for the moment–after falling sharply for several days. The economic confidence of those who do not invest was not shaken by the Wall Street events of recent days. As for the political implications, polling conducted last night shows that 49% trust McCain more than Obama on economic issues while 45% trust Obama.

That shift is startling, and shows the effectiveness of McCain’s campaign at defining Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal.  Only voters aged 18-29 trust Obama outside the margin of error, although voters in their 40s give Obama a one-point edge.  All other age demographics clearly trust McCain over Obama on economic issues, while McCain overwhelmingly tops Obama on national security, the other question asked in the survey.  Interestingly, college graduates and non-completes trust McCain more than Obama too, by double-digit margins.  Only high-school graduates and those with higher masters and doctorates trust Obama more.

It may be more than that, and the crisis may continue crystallizing a leadership gap between the two men.  This arose during the Russo-Georgian war in the Caucasus, when Obama stumbled through a series of responses while McCain looked informed and resolute.  When the nation faces a crisis, it looks for tested leadership.  Americans might be tempted to take a chance on a newcomer if they see little risk on the horizon, but someone with no leadership experience beyond running his own campaign may scare off people who see turbulence ahead.

Obama will lose this election if this trend continues.  McCain’s ad today takes exactly the right tone in light of this movement.  He has to demonstrate calm, experience, and determination while assuring people that America can solve this problem.  Obama will almost certainly take the opposite tone, painting this as a meltdown of Great Depression proportions and making himself look hysterical in the process.  While that will feed Obama’s argument for radical change, it will not make him more credible — and he will continue to lose his edge on what had been his greatest policy strength until now.

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