McCain up 9 in Virginia — among registered voters
posted at 4:55 pm on September 17, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
This sounds more like an outlier on first blush, but other data from the same poll suggests otherwise. the Virginian-Pilot shows John McCain with a substantial lead over Barack Obama in the state of Virginia among registered voters, a sampling that would otherwise favor Democrats. And it does, as the Senate race shows:
Republican presidential nominee John McCain has opened a clear lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Virginia voters in the race for the White House, according to a new statewide poll.
The survey, taken last week for the Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, found McCain with the support of 48 percent of state voters, compared with 39 percent for Obama. Just under 13 percent were undecided.
The poll also showed Democrat Mark Warner is maintaining a huge advantage, 54 percent to 30 percent, over Republican Jim Gilmore in the state’s U.S. Senate contest. Warner leads Gilmore among virtually all voter groups, the survey indicates, even claiming the support of nearly one in four Republicans.
The poll sampled 500 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4%. That puts both McCain and Warner ahead, the latter comfortably so. No one thought Jim Gilmore would present a formidable obstacle to the very popular Democratic former governor, but I doubt anyone thought he’d fail to garner a third of the vote. That number seems very low, even for a state that has elected more Democrats than Republicans to statewide office over the last few years.
That result tends to underscore the significance of the McCain/Obama polling. If Gilmore couldn’t get more than 30% in his matchup, that makes Obama’s failure to clear 40% even more significant. It means that 30% of people voting for Warner do not plan to vote for Obama, a rather stunning rejection in a state Obama hoped to make competitive.
Virginia would be a hold for McCain, so the good news is limited to a potential sigh of relief. For Obama, that was one of the few states he thought he could reasonably flip from red to blue. To have a nine-point gap after spending so much time, effort, and money on this state has to be frustrating. To have that kind of a gap among registered voters, and that kind of rejection from Warner’s supporters, has to be making Democrats very, very nervous.
Blowback
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I’ll send this info to my poll cruncher, and see if your conclusion is a good one.
Sakaki on September 17, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Wow.
Spirit of 1776 on September 17, 2008 at 4:57 PM
The Eric Cartman polls are the ones to watch.
Leopold Stotch on September 17, 2008 at 4:58 PM
I’m telling you. McCain will win with the same states as Bush except for Iowa (thanks to ethanol boondoggle/waste).
Sapwolf on September 17, 2008 at 4:58 PM
What’s weird is that the more money Obama spends in a state, the less people like him.
Happened in Florida too.
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 4:59 PM
Not to be a downer but isn’t the problem in Virginia the fear of Obama bringing in “new voters” and the explosion of black voter turnout? So why would a poll of registered voters favor Obama?
D0WNT0WN on September 17, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Gallup poll… Boooo!!
Virginian-Pilot poll… Yaaay!
CliffHanger on September 17, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Ed, I love that “don’t worry, be happy” thumbnail picture. Hopefully Obama will macarena into oblivion!
Mr_Magoo on September 17, 2008 at 5:02 PM
The Fred Thompson effect: The more you know the guy, the less you like about him.
csdeven on September 17, 2008 at 5:03 PM
Wow, well we’ll see if the trends at the state level hold…I am hoping Gallup(which never went wild in %s for MAVERICK!*) is an outlier but truth be told the press is exerting its narrative. We did fine on defense but it is time to go on Offense.
sven10077 on September 17, 2008 at 5:03 PM
Things are falling into place, first Virginia, next in line: Colorado…if McCain wins both, he wins the election…the only question is by how much.
Agreed?
joepub on September 17, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Ed,
What’s the feel in MN for senate and president right now?
joepub on September 17, 2008 at 5:04 PM
I liked Fred. :(
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Time for Teh One to pack up his stakes and MoveOn to a different state.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 17, 2008 at 5:05 PM
If McCain can hold all the redstates, except Iowa, he wins. Yep. Can he?
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:05 PM
I think it’ll come down to CO and OH.
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Me too. Federalist principles for running government. What’s not to like?
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 17, 2008 at 5:06 PM
But I’m getting pessimistic that McCain can keep his leads. Seems, to me, that’s he’s floundering around out there.
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Ah, I knew there was something missing around here the past couple months. Welcome back.
BadgerHawk on September 17, 2008 at 5:06 PM
CSDeven always had some sort of paranormal hatred for Fred.
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:07 PM
I wouldn’t believe this poll. AmericanResearchGroup has some new polls for 25 states though.
lodge on September 17, 2008 at 5:08 PM
So maybe Obama is abandoning Va afterall?
Chuck Schick on September 17, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Is it just me, or does it seem like there’s a narrative being written here by the polls, almost like there’s a concentrated effort to demotivate us? Oh well.
BadgerHawk on September 17, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Poor Allah. He must be heartbroken.
Just kidding.
Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 5:10 PM
We’re what, 6 weeks out from the election? You have to register at least 4 out in order to vote in Virginia.
amerpundit on September 17, 2008 at 5:10 PM
McCain will win it all if he executes on these messages two:
a) energy
b) the Obama/Biden/Dodd/Raines/Hillary/Schumer cabal being neck deep in monies from the failed financials
SlimyBill on September 17, 2008 at 5:10 PM
That is precisely what Rush said (a couple days after the convention) would happen.
And welcome back csdeven.
Spirit of 1776 on September 17, 2008 at 5:10 PM
I’ve lived here for over 14 years, and Northern VA has changed dramatically during that time. The illegal population has sky-rocketed, and suburban sprawl has set in. Still, Obama and his minions can expect a brawl this November. Us conservatives ain’t giving up without a fight.
dugan on September 17, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Obama only has 17 more days to register more felons, Disney characters, etc. And early voting has started, so even if he has a momentum swing it’ll be hard to catch up.
I don’t see that “30% of Warner voters” rejecting Obama as such a big deal though, considering so many Republicans are voting for Warner.
What sucks is that Warner is going to be one of those fake moderates who never deviates from the liberal line when it counts.
BuzzCrutcher on September 17, 2008 at 5:10 PM
lorien:
Just a few days ago people were saying Obama was flailing. Maybe we are watching too close.
Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Not to veer too far from the Virgina polls, but — as a midwesterner transplanted in San Diego — can somebody please explain to me why California is “solid blue?” (55 EC votes)
I mean, other than San Francisco, Berkeley, and Hollywood, California is a pretty pro-military, pro-capitalism (Silicon Valley), kind of place. Heck, we even have a Republican governor (OK, pretty RINO-ish and married to a Kennedy.)
Every Hispanic voter I’ve spoken with is pro-McCain (immigration) as is every Asian voter (for his service in Vietnam.)
So why can’t McCain win California?
VastRightWingConspirator on September 17, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Glass ceiling.
maynila on September 17, 2008 at 5:11 PM
I don’t see ohio as a problem. Colorado and Virginia worry me a bit…
I just can’t see BO willing VA, but Colorado is possible. Other than that, We need to get some red paint out for PA and MI!
yes, if mac wins all of bush states minus Iowa he wins.
joepub on September 17, 2008 at 5:12 PM
There’s also the Public Policy Polling poll from yesterday that shows Obama up by 2 in Virginia: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Virginia_91735.pdf.
jim m on September 17, 2008 at 5:12 PM
lots of stories still say he is flailing. I haven’t heard that about McCain’s side yet. Weird, isn’t it?
I agree. I think I’m just totally peeved that McCain’s ad team hasn’t been firing their cannons all week like they should.
Maybe I don’t see the ads, cuz I’m not in a battleground state anymore. Florida is pretty much McCain territory.
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:12 PM
Don’t forget Fred has a red truck…
Funny you should post, I just found this article about you.
right2bright on September 17, 2008 at 5:13 PM
If the media EVER breaks this, will it change the mind of any obama zombies!
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080825WBENa
christene on September 17, 2008 at 5:15 PM
McCain just threw his arms up in celebraton – and snapped them back out of joint. Dammit!
marklmail on September 17, 2008 at 5:16 PM
Somebody said if McCain won VA there is a good chance it would reflect what could take place in PA and OH. Somewhere on HotAir there was an article yesterday that had a letter THE ONE’S campaign had sent to VA residents to come help campaign in PA. Maybe this is why?
freeus on September 17, 2008 at 5:16 PM
Must be a bunch of racists in Virginia.
lionheart on September 17, 2008 at 5:16 PM
It wasn’t FT’s federalism I was disappointing with.
And it DOES seem like we are trying to be put off our guard. The Virginia poll seems so also. Someone mentioned that the poll was registered voters, but BO’s target group are NEW voters. That 9 points doesn’t look so solid. But, Im a paranoid on some stuff.
Hey yall, thanks for the “welcome back”.
csdeven on September 17, 2008 at 5:17 PM
Yes, PPP would. As TPM noted in April, the same poll gave Obama a 3-point lead in Pennsylvania. It was the only poll to give Obama a lead in the state that Clinton easily won.
amerpundit on September 17, 2008 at 5:17 PM
This isn’t good for Michelle’s kids.
marklmail on September 17, 2008 at 5:20 PM
The Virginian Pilot is based in Hampton Roads, home to one of the largest military bases in the country. One question that has to be asked is where did they take their sampling from? Out of the phone book? If so, that would skew the results towards military members and families.
covel on September 17, 2008 at 5:21 PM
lorien:
I don’t see a lot of the ads either, because I don’t watch a lot of TV and I rarely look at the stuff on line. I hate ads. I know they work, but I don’t like them.
Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 5:22 PM
It was actually a statewide poll conducted by the Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.
amerpundit on September 17, 2008 at 5:23 PM
That makes sense. I live in Virginia and I think McCain support is being purposely underreported by certain polls. Bush won Virginia an eight point margin. Why would Virginians suddenly vote four years later for the socialist Obama? Doesn’t make any sense.
Virginians often vote for CONSERVATIVE Democrats. . .at least those pretending to be conservative while running, such as Warner. It doesn’t mean that they will go for Obama. Dems never get it, though. At this time in 2004, they still thought Virginia might go for Kerry.
Gabe on September 17, 2008 at 5:24 PM
It’s funny you should post that. I was wondering if you had abandoned your penchant for juvenile comments. I can see you are as committed as you always were to Jr high humor.
Tsk, tsk, tsk.
csdeven on September 17, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Those who said that Obama could win Virginia were just wanking
Allen ran a bad campaign, and lost to an eccentric jerk who pretended to be more conservative than Allen on some issues
McCain and his staff are not Allen & Co., and yes, race is a factor in the southern and western counties
on to Pennsylvania and Michigan……
Janos Hunyadi on September 17, 2008 at 5:25 PM
…the header of this is careful to point out that this statistic holds true for registered voters…how is Obama doing among his usual constituency…corpses, felons, illegial aliens, foreigners in general, household pets, imaginary figments? If these pollsters are to maintain any credibility (*AAAWWWWK* *GUUUULP* *EEEEEECCCCK*), they have to give us the full picture.
Inquiring minds are about fed up to here *POINTING TO LEFT EAR*….
Puritan1648 on September 17, 2008 at 5:28 PM
If you look at the current numbers – Obama +4.8 – and then look at the numbers from 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin seems like a great target for McCain, better even than Washington or Minnesota. Gore was only +0.2%, while Kerry was +0.4%.
uncalheels on September 17, 2008 at 5:28 PM
So Virginia racists outnumber non-racists by 9%, give or take 3%.
Now if the polls change a bit, as they surely will, would that mean more people are becoming racist by the day?
Bishop on September 17, 2008 at 5:31 PM
Christopher Newport University is in Hampton Roads which is why I was curious, I missed the statewide thing, thanks.
covel on September 17, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Go to the RCP electoral map
and flip Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to “leaning McCain”
Those are probably safe flips. Note the count, though: 269 for McCain.
Limiting yourself only to toss-up states (gray), you can see that McCain will need only one more, but look at the ones you have to choose from:
Nevada
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Michigan
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
At this point I leave it to those with more insight to make it make sense.
My hope comes from what I figure is a pretty good chance that if McCain wins Ohio and Virginia, he’ll win Nevada (or, optimistically, Pennsylvania) too.
greggriffith on September 17, 2008 at 5:32 PM
raaaacist
ballz2wallz on September 17, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Yes, but the mitigating factor is that here in Virginia, outside of the Northern Va region, we’re all just a bunch of racists. Just ask J. Cafferty. This means that on Wednesday after the election, the Obama campaign will sue in federal court, claiming that any vote not cast for him is inherently racist and discrminatory, and therefore a hate crime. The remedy for this is to nullify all votes cast for his opponent (also a racist, btw), and to count only those votes cast for him. Oh, he’ll also seek his 40 acres and a mule as punitive damages.
BobMbx on September 17, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Look at NC. Obama has no business being competitive there.
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Webb was a cheap panderer, wearing his son’s (who was in Irag) boots while campaigning. In contrast, McCain refuses to exploit his sons’ military service.
BTW, Jim Webb = Captain Forehead
dugan on September 17, 2008 at 5:41 PM
P.S. – My nightmare scenario is that those other 6 states all go Obama, which means the election is thrown into the House, which means President Obama.
greggriffith on September 17, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Ed,
With the picture of bho in Hawaii, any polls on him there?
L
letget on September 17, 2008 at 5:42 PM
RCP has NC as leaning LcCain. I didn’t change it; NC’s votes are counted in my total.
greggriffith on September 17, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Here we go – click this link and give it a minute to load up my map.
Somebody help me out here – how will we win this thing?
greggriffith on September 17, 2008 at 5:48 PM
But its only like 1 percent for McCain. It should be a blowout, as usual.
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 5:49 PM
According to the RCP Nevada already leans McCain and Colorado actually leans Obama. But I would think Co will start to trend McCain just because of the neighboring state thing. And the convention there is over.
Today, as a snap shot in time I think McCain is in really good shape. Although maybe the states are lagging and the disipation of the bounce hasn’t shown up there yet.
The rumour a few days ago was that the polls always trend toward the GOP just before the election. Does anyone have info to support that?
petunia on September 17, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Well, if VA and OH goes McCain’s way, then that puts M/P at 260. That means he doesn’t need CO if he takes NM (5) and NV (5).
With:
- MN moving into play
- PA very tight to on the verge
- MI closing up fast and,
- WI questionable
I’m not pessimistic any more. Woot!
Dusty on September 17, 2008 at 5:53 PM
I’ve heard the same about Pennsylvania. Sure it’s Democrat but not Liberal Democrat like Obama is.
I think McCain has a real chance in any state that went with Hillary over Obama. I think that is why they are trying so hard not to alienate the Hillary voters.
petunia on September 17, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Everyone forgets that Virginia was the Capitol of the Confederacy. I was never worried about my home State. However, I am surprised that we are so close in NC. I do not look for that State to stay in Republican hands.
John McCain over the years irritated every Republican in that State.
Jdripper on September 17, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Rush has always stated that these polls are both businesses and Democratic cheerleaders. They tend to overstate Democratic support in order to start a bandwagon effect.
Then, right before the election, they get nervous and move the polls to where they should be–closer to Republicans. This is so they will have some sort of credibility when the election goes for the Republicans.
I distrust this 2-point current lead in the Gallup poll.
Gabe on September 17, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Wow you are good! I’ve never seen anyone make the case for an actual tie before!
But I think your flaw is Nevada. if it came to a head to head in Nevada… well I think there is a Republican grassroots potenital there that hasn’t been used to it’s full extent there ever before. Mitt Romney could help by campaigning there I think.
petunia on September 17, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Thank you for posting Ed. I was jonesing for a read sinced I’ve banned AP from my reading list.
I’m not concerning myself with this right now. This can all turn on a dime, tighten, or loosen based on the debates. It just takes ONE gaffe, er, make that two, or three, or four considering the caliber of the debaters.
Sultry Beauty on September 17, 2008 at 6:03 PM
That would explain it. In fact I always feel manipulated by media… so that does make sense.
petunia on September 17, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Is there anyone in the Obama campaign who realizes that Virginia is chalk full of military voters and specifically, NAVY voters, active duty, reservist and retired?
Jim Webb was Reagan’s former Secretary of the Navy, a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and a United States Marine. That’s the only reason he beat George Allen. Even the Washington Post’s phony scandals would not have put him over the top.
Obama has as much chance as Cynthia McKinney has of winning Virginia. But by all means, waste lots of money here, dude, it’s money you can’t spend elsewhere.
NoDonkey on September 17, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Well I’m from AZ and he irritated everyone here too! In fact he didn’t do all that well last time around here for an incumbant.
But what has he done to anger the NCarolinans? He can’t open their borders or give there water to California.
petunia on September 17, 2008 at 6:07 PM
Virginia ain’t flippin just like Zoo York ain’t flippin.
(yes, that’s how I spell ain’t)
VolMagic on September 17, 2008 at 6:08 PM
Go Navy.
Bishop on September 17, 2008 at 6:11 PM
NoDonkey is right–Webb was competitive due to his military background, and could compete in the military-heavy Virginia Beach area. In this election, McCain will dominate the military vote, which will probably be enough to win Virginia, even if Obama gets a big turnout near DC.
Steve Z on September 17, 2008 at 6:16 PM
My nightmare scenario is that those other 6 states all go Obama, which means the election is thrown into the House, which means President Obama.
greggriffith on September 17, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Not necessarily, the electorals could switch a vote after the fact and if it stayed tied, the newly minted Congress would decide for the pres and the senate would pick the veep.
Interesting times.
Bishop on September 17, 2008 at 6:18 PM
This cherry picking of polls is really getting to be a bit much.
Non cherry picking
semloh on September 17, 2008 at 6:23 PM
Never make that map again!
lorien1973 on September 17, 2008 at 6:25 PM
Yes, those terrible racists in Virginia, the same people who put the nation’s first elected black governor (Doug Wilder) in office a couple decades ago.
I remember that because I was living there at the time, and I was one of those evil white descendants of Virginia slave-holders who voted for Wilder. (I was young and foolish and a registered Democrat back then).
AZCoyote on September 17, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Okay, Sherlock (isn’t your handle Holmes spelled backwards?), write this down. Senator Obama will lose 50 of 50 in the only poll that matters.
CC
CapedConservative on September 17, 2008 at 6:30 PM
McCain will winn Pennsylvania, Nevada, and NH ( where the ‘Bradley effect’ will be strong )
So, no tie, and no Obama admin. The polling flurries might make this campaign look like that Cowboys-Eagles game Monday night, but………McCain is Dallas / Romo ( complete with fumbling in his own end zone, untouched )
BTW, where are the Cowboys posts this year?
the Daily Kos called: they want you back, and we don’t want you HERE, troll. As for cherries, I’m sure you’ve still got yours
Janos Hunyadi on September 17, 2008 at 6:33 PM
Can someone please explain why Iowa, which went for Gore in 2000 but flipped to Bush in 2004, is said to be fairly solid for Obama and not mentioned much as a swing state?
neocon hippie on September 17, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Wisconsin is now considered a toss-up, per RealClearPolitics.
However, about this poll…I am a bit hesitant to jump too high about it. All other polls show a dead heat. I’ll need to see one or more polls showing this trend in VA.
SouthernGent on September 17, 2008 at 6:53 PM
I am sure he has the Wahabi Corridor sewn up.
Disturb the Universe on September 17, 2008 at 6:56 PM
Funny…I actually had that exact same map a while back. However, I have flipped Nevada to leaning McCain with Ohio as a toss-up.
SouthernGent on September 17, 2008 at 6:56 PM
That result tends to underscore the significance of the McCain/Obama polling. If Gilmore couldn’t get more than 30% in his matchup, that makes Obama’s failure to clear 40% even more significant. It means that 30% of people voting for Warner do not plan to vote for Obama, a rather stunning rejection in a state Obama hoped to make competitive.
Oh no those must be the rednecks Andrea Mitchell warned everyone about. The Mudcat Sanders crowd, the ones Obama is writing off all over the country.
Montanans supposed to be in play ths election, turns out they really, really like their guns.
Dr Evil on September 17, 2008 at 7:08 PM
“However, I am surprised that we are so close in NC. I do not look for that State to stay in Republican hands.”
Large Military and vet population here in NC. General population is conservative as well, regardless of party affiliation. NC will not flip to Obama. It will go McCain.
Drunken Angry Clown on September 17, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Unfortunately for us, that is not with the ACORN margin of error for unregistered voters and general miscreants.
moxie_neanderthal on September 17, 2008 at 7:35 PM
History tells us that a man like Obama is very unlikely to win – regardless of his shading.
Since he is a radical liberal the only hope he has is massive corruption from the current administration and the ability to tie McCain to Bush.
Neither of those things have come to pass, the democrat party is fracturing as the conservative side unites.
McCain/Palin will win in the end.
Dorvillian on September 17, 2008 at 7:49 PM
Once again, this presidential race has brought me to my knees in prayer for our nation. It’s similar to 2000 as the fabric of the universe is at stake.
Mojave Mark on September 17, 2008 at 8:13 PM
I’m hoping that the Mav’ and ‘Cuda can pull this off!
MrsWeebork on September 17, 2008 at 8:43 PM
The Rationalization Express is here BEEP BEEP
Dave Rywall on September 17, 2008 at 11:27 PM
Every pilot/crew member in my squadron here in Iraq has requested an absentee ballot… we are scared to death of Obama as Commander-in-Chief.
ColHogan on September 18, 2008 at 12:45 AM
“we are scared to death of Obama as Commander-in-Chief.”
Me too. I go over 20 in February and will drop my retirement papers if that jackass is elected.
NoDonkey on September 18, 2008 at 8:22 AM
Yeah, we don’t like reds.
ex-Democrat on September 18, 2008 at 8:45 AM
Unfortunately, participation will not be limited to registered voters in November.
Vashta.Nerada on September 18, 2008 at 10:47 AM