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CBS poll: Obama leads by five after trailing by two post-convention

posted at 6:25 pm on September 17, 2008 by Allahpundit
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That’s among registereds. Among likely voters, he … leads by the same margin, a bad result given that Maverick’s typically fared much better with that group. Maybe those young Obamites are tuning in and turning out after all?

Exercise caution until we have details about the sample, as some of these swings are eye-poppingly dramatic. Even so, it’s safe to say the bounce is indeed gone:

Obama’s advantage can be traced in part to independents, who favored Obama in late August, swung to McCain just after the Republican convention, and have now returned to Obama. Obama now leads McCain among independents 46 percent to 41 percent.

Obama now also leads McCain among women, a group that favored McCain by five points in polling taken just after the Republican convention, where Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin became the second woman ever to be nominated to a major party ticket.

Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama’s direction from one week ago.

There were enormous swings among women towards McCain in other polls last week. If these numbers are right and the pendulum’s swung back, it probably means they were drawn to Palin, gave her a look, and … didn’t like what they saw. In fact, in the CBS poll her favorables among women have dropped 11 points in a week; among Hillary voters she splits 20/48, even though 25 percent of Clintonites say they’re voting for McCain. She’s still +10 in favorables overall — but as of last week she was +22, which I guess means that Hotline poll I linked yesterday wasn’t such an outlier after all.

I’m seeing some grumbling about her answers to Hannity in the excerpt thread in Headlines, too. Exit question: Is Palinmania over?

Update: Just as I’m ready to publish this, I see they’ve posted the complete PDF. Back in a few with updates as warranted, but a quick review of the sample of registered voters weighted by party reveals a possible partial explanation for the swing. In last week’s poll, the Dem/GOP/Ind breakdown was 36.8/30.6/32.5. Today’s sample is 40.6/31.6/27.8. They’ve added more Democrats at the expense of independents — although given the trend among the latter group back towards Obama, the effect may be less dramatic than we think/hope.

Update: Biden’s net favorables are actually higher among independents than Palin’s are now, +22 to +14. On the question of whether she’s prepared to be VP, among indies she’s net -2 and among all voters -10. As for whether she’s prepared to step in for McCain as president or whether voters would be “concerned,” she’s net -28 among indies and -29 overall. Plus, there’s this. Note the trend:

Again, the sample gap is unusually wide so don’t take the overall numbers too much to heart. The indie numbers are more important.


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Roger:

Palin did not look Dumb. Not at all. She became the first woman Governor and the youngest Governor in the history of Alaska. That is not something a dumb person could do.

I just love the way all these people on the internet, half of whom probably can not match their socks, think they are smart enough to call someone like Sarah Palin dumb. Pathetic and insulting.

She showed more understanding of economics when she was working in Alaska than Obama has ever shown. I am not just talking about her tenure as Governor either. So yeah, snicker. But she balanced the budget in her state, made the payroll, gave $1200 rebates to every citizen in Alaska and negotiated a new pipeline that is worth billions. Her work on the ethics commission showed more understanding of basic economics than anything Biden has ever done. The man has been a Senator since McCain was a POW. He has never had a real freaking job in his life.

Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 8:43 PM

Thank Heaven for the Founding Fathers.

But hey aren’t you rooting for the wrong team?

petunia on September 17, 2008 at 8:05 PM

Um… NO! :)

ROLL TIDE

Ramma Jamma Yella Hamma,
Go to HELL Barack Obama!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPuN0I4zsW8

GulfCoastBamaFan on September 17, 2008 at 8:43 PM

Yet somehow you felt compelled to respond to me….eh tailfloss……

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Yes, fw, you make me feel a ‘compulsion’ whenever you’re out of your cave.

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:44 PM

It is not the poll numbers that bothers me, it is the thought that we partisan regulars on this site are out numbered 10 to one, 100 to one, 1000 to one by people who will cast their vote on … . .. impressions, and what they hear from friends and family.

As Mr. Pundit demonstrates we are not immune to the desire to believe what we want to believe.

rockhauler on September 17, 2008 at 8:44 PM

Let’s see-

go trolling for an MB4-

catch a Tav and a trailboss.

Thanks troll, most helpful!

p.s. your semloh names getting cold.

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:45 PM

Yes, fw, you make me feel a ‘compulsion’ whenever you’re out of your cave.

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:44 PM

And you give me a ‘compulsion’ whenever I feel you in my ass, tailfloss.

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:46 PM

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:45 PM

Glad to help make you think you have a purpose in life.

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:46 PM

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:46 PM

Was that proposition, braindrain?

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:48 PM

Yeah – you guys aren’t becoming totally unhinged at all.

Not at all.

Must be that Palin-feevah!

an_abstraction on September 17, 2008 at 8:48 PM

Just when I thought it was safe to read HotAir again and Fiveway get’s a day pass out of his lunatic asylum

KentAllard on September 17, 2008 at 8:48 PM

Where’s our President “Texan Air Guard Pilot” ” President George W. Bush…?

Do we deserve a “fire side chat” concerning the melt down in our economy today…?

J_Gocht on September 17, 2008 at 7:43 PM

Sure why not?
And when Obama becomes president in Jan we can have platitudes about fearing um fear blah blah blah. And then we can have the highest marginal tax rates up-ed over 90%, freeze wages of everyone else, double digit unemployment, and have a massive govt program rollout to make sure the depression lasts 10 years just like the original fire sider FDR.

burnitup on September 17, 2008 at 8:49 PM

Was that proposition, braindrain?

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:48 PM

…uhm….no….that was an expulsion….

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:49 PM

Was that proposition, braindrain?

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:48 PM

i think it was. He probably doesn’t get much action at the asylum.

KentAllard on September 17, 2008 at 8:51 PM

Just when I thought it was safe to read HotAir again and Fiveway get’s a day pass out of his lunatic asylum

KentAllard on September 17, 2008 at 8:48 PM

You can go to hell too.

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:51 PM

…uhm….no….that was an expulsion….

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:49 PM

Good catch there, HockeyPuck.

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:53 PM

Someone you can relate to …. Biden, 43%

Where did they take this poll, at a Chia Pet convention?

fogw on September 17, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Good catch there, HockeyPuck.

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:53 PM

……*flush*……

Hey, what happened to tailfloss?

FiveWays on September 17, 2008 at 8:56 PM

McCain is more a drag than Palin on this ticket. He’s a war hero and all, but he has the personality and verve of a dead fish.

Palin has taken him about as far as she could. What’s the next move to shake things up, Mac?

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:57 PM

Why do we continue to discuss polls? This is just another attempt by the media to deflate the swell of enthusiasm for a candidate that actually represents the average American. The politburo would be very proud.

Let’s just hope the electorate doesn’t fall for it… again…

CaliConstitutionalist on September 17, 2008 at 8:59 PM

We’ve lost the “Concerned Conservative Christian and Life-Long Republican” vote that live on the Internet and belong to Daily Kos!

Speedwagon82 on September 17, 2008 at 9:00 PM

Palin has taken him about as far as she could. What’s the next move to shake things up, Mac?

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 8:57 PM

Maybe Mac could go on TV and do a little mariachi two-step.

Tav on September 17, 2008 at 9:00 PM

According to Gallop, Americans have very low confidence in the MSM, about 25%. After their Obama adulation performance this year, I expect that number will drop further.

Loxodonta on September 17, 2008 at 9:04 PM

I was in Alaska on election night the night Sarah won the Governor’s race. I was one of her campaign volunteers.

Two days before that, a last minute poll came out showing Dem Tony Knowles ahead of Sarah by 5 points. It scared the crap out of us. We were worried until the polls closed. Then the first numbers started to come in. Sarah was ahead.

She ended up winning by a comfortable 10 point margin.

The liberal Anchorage media tried to shift the election the last few days by making it appear Sarah was going to lose. They’re doing the exact same thing here.

ericdondero on September 17, 2008 at 9:06 PM

Maybe Mac could go on TV and do a little mariachi two-step.

Tav on September 17, 2008 at 9:00 PM

Univision interview, Sept. 15.

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 9:08 PM

The liberal Anchorage media tried to shift the election the last few days by making it appear Sarah was going to lose. They’re doing the exact same thing here.

ericdondero on September 17, 2008 at 9:06 PM

What’s the Anchorage media doing down here?

trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 9:09 PM

Terrye,

If matching Obama’s economic and financial prowess is your bar, we are in heap big trouble.

This is going to be great:

We have a presidential candidate who knows jack sh*t about how the economy works and was nominated because he was a POW.

We have a vice presidential candidate who knows jack sh*t about how the economy works and was chosen because she is a woman.

AND THESE ARE THE REPUBLICANS!!!!

The democrats are supposed to suck, but the republicans are supposed to be about ability.

We deserve to lose.

Disagree? then bite me.

Roger Waters on September 17, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Palin was nothing more than a gimmick and this shows it.

Xolom on September 17, 2008 at 9:29 PM

Who put out the troll food?

fogw on September 17, 2008 at 9:41 PM

Thanks Allahpundit … a very fair article. Thanks for writing it and sharing it.

Monkei on September 17, 2008 at 9:43 PM

OK AP, let’s go over this again.

She will excite the base, help bring in more money for McCain, push energy and reform.

However, the election is still McCain vs. Obama period.

Palin brings a lot of energy, and it is a incredible she is this popular after the unprecedented bigotry, hate, and unfair attacks she has received.

Think, would we even be wasting time if McCain had picked a white guy? No, cause the election would be over.

The recent economic news may not be good for McCain, but this kind of news can turn around too. What happens if unemployment goes a little down over the next month? That could benefit McCain.

Let’s do our work and watch the debates. It is an election as opposed to what happened in 1996.

Sapwolf on September 17, 2008 at 9:46 PM

The liberal Anchorage media tried to shift the election the last few days by making it appear Sarah was going to lose. They’re doing the exact same thing here.

ericdondero on September 17, 2008 at 9:06 PM

You do know that Troopergate was ongoing BEFORE Ms Palin was picked to be the woman on the ticket don’t you? If not, maybe you can find a timeline.

Monkei on September 17, 2008 at 9:46 PM

The recent economic news may not be good for McCain, but this kind of news can turn around too. What happens if unemployment goes a little down over the next month? That could benefit McCain.

It’s not that high for starters, so if you are counting on a .02 percent drop to help out Johnny MAC … oh well. You are better off hoping that Bin Laden attacks again and changes the tone and subject, or at least Bush brings him our of the cell they held him in down in GITMO for the last 4 months.

Let’s do our work and watch the debates. It is an election as opposed to what happened in 1996.

The debates were meaningless in 2000 and 2004, Bush was out debated every which way, still won. Uneducated, non informed voters who decide elections don’t watch them, only those on the right and left, and then spin for their side.

Monkei on September 17, 2008 at 9:52 PM

the mac will lose and we will have higher taxes, big deal

foxone on September 17, 2008 at 10:08 PM

There were enormous swings among women towards McCain in other polls last week. If these numbers are right and the pendulum’s swung back, it probably means they were drawn to Palin, gave her a look, and … didn’t like what they saw

It’s called the convention bounce. McCain had a coming out party and did very well in presenting himself to the American people. But bounces don’t last forever, the momentum was going to swing back toward the center of gravity at some point.

Is this a big problem for McCain? Not at all. The convention bounce wasn’t meant to last and it’s end shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Voters ultimately don’t vote for a ticket based on the VP, so the Palin effect can’t be expected to completely change the dynamics of the race. Not every woman is crazy about Palin? Not a problem- the plan was to court the conservative and evangelical vote, not everyone.

McCain’s biggest problem is being associated with the party in power, especially as the financial markets suggest that someone, somewhere dropped the ball. Even if it’s not Bush’s fault, many voters will inevitably place the blame at his doorstep.

foreverright on September 17, 2008 at 10:12 PM

Thanks, ericdondero, for your 9:06 PM post. My reaction to the CBS poll numbers was that they were wrong, that CBS was trying to show Obama back in the lead. Your experience would indicate that my reaction to the CBS poll is correct.

Phil Byler on September 17, 2008 at 10:45 PM

Oh no!

That is all.

Dave Rywall on September 17, 2008 at 11:26 PM

I’m a registered voter and I’ve never been part of any of these polls. Nor have I known anyone who has. I don’t see their value.

Egfrow on September 17, 2008 at 11:37 PM

The appeal of Palin is starting to fade as the McCain team craps her up.

She’ll be another RINO by the time they are through with her. Hopefully, she’ll be able to go back home and unlearn all the programming,

Valiant on September 17, 2008 at 11:59 PM

The debates were meaningless in 2000 and 2004, Bush was out debated every which way, still won. Uneducated, non informed voters who decide elections don’t watch them, only those on the right and left, and then spin for their side.

Monkei on September 17, 2008 at 9:52 PM

Not this year. The debates matter and people will watch in record numbers. Look at the number of people who watched the conventions, 40 million. I suspect the debates will draw more than that. Especially Palin and Biden.

johnt on September 18, 2008 at 12:10 AM

However, the election is still McCain vs. Obama period.

Exactly, and it will be in the POTUS debates, seeing McCain and Obama head-to-head, that Americans will really make their decisions about the candidates.

The debates were meaningless in 2000 and 2004, Bush was out debated every which way, still won.

Indicating that what voters actually get out of the debates has little to do with what the candidates actually say. More important in these debates will be who comes off as more appealing to the voters. This has been the case ever since that first televised Kennedy-Nixon debate — Nixon won that debate on paper, but he came off as the caustic douche that he was. Kennedy, by comparison, appeared cool, calm, and collected, giving off a likable air.

Bush beat Gore and Kerry because people saw in him a guy who would be good to have at a family BBQ. They saw in Gore & Kerry guys who would cause everyone at the BBQ to remember they have things to do somewhere else.

Palin has this same likable quality, which is why she generated so much interest & energy on a popular level (her policy-appeal is an other, if separate, reason for her popularity).

McCain-Palin = an old soldier and a minivan, PTA mom; down-to-earth ticket interested in meeting the voters in venues that dialogues with the public (town halls, etc)

Obama-Biden = a young elitist and an old elitist; Obama prefers delivering prepared speeches to actually interacting with the voters; Obama prefers Biden to do the same (lest he stuff any more feet in his mouth).

One of McCain’s major tasks in the debates will be to (a) put Obama back on his heels, for he loses his cool quickly and allows the facade to drop, revealing the arrogent socialist beneath; and, (b) do so in a way that doesn’t make McCain look like a jerk.

It should be real easy for McCain to accomplish (a), given the sheer volume of Obama’s uncomfortable associations and the hidden pains (to the electorate’s pocketbook) in his policies. Obama’s inexperience should be highlighted by McCain as well; Hillary used that line of pressure effectively in the primaries — and if Obama is so foolish as to bring up Palin, McCain can remind Obama that he will have to wait at least 4 more years if he wants to run against Palin (or something like that).

Obama is insubstantial. All McCain has to do is show the people that the wanna-be Emperor’s clothes are imaginary — and that Obama’s an elitest jerk (a perception that has grown substantially since the Iowa caucuses).

Harpazo on September 18, 2008 at 12:11 AM

McCain-Palin = an old soldier and a minivan, PTA mom; down-to-earth ticket

Right, the old soldier who doesn’t know how many homes he owns- as down to earth as it gets! One of McCain’s biggest problems that it’s taken a long time for him to fully acknowledge the severity of the financial system’s pains. As recently as last week he said that the economy was ‘fundamentally sound’. The ‘down to earth’ candidate who’s out of touch with reality isn’t going to appeal to independent voters.

foreverright on September 18, 2008 at 12:18 AM

foreverright on September 18, 2008 at 12:18 AM

Aside from the factual errors in what you said (i.e., McCain was warning about Fannie/Freddie in 2005), none of that matters to the non-politico voter — which is the majority of the electorate.

What matters is perception and likability. Intangibles. You think Obama beat Hillary in the primaries because his platform was so much stronger? Of course not. He beat her because she appeared harsh and calculating, with a voice that neuters dogs at 500 yards. Obama appeared confident and smooth, speaking in soaring tones with a voice that was easy to listen to.

Obama was more appealing than Hillary, at least at first, because the sad truth is that the vast majority of voters don’t actually vote based on politics — they vote based on how much they the candidate appeals to them and on the one (maybe two) issue that they really care about.

And yes, the “down to earth” ticket will appeal to independents because independents are American voters. And American voters are pretty much the same in their methology across the board. The only things that change are what the few major issues will be for them.

And of course, those who DO pay attention to policy, etc., will pick the ticket whose platform most appeals to them. But those voters aren’t going to show (as) much movement, as they are basing their decision on a more objective basis.

Platforms are fixed values; subjective appeal is fluid and less predictable.

Harpazo on September 18, 2008 at 12:52 AM

Well spoke Harpazo. I’m clinging to the fact that the American voter has gotten it right since Carter. We got Clinton right too ’cause 57% voted against him in 92. I have faith that McCain will win by a comfortable margin. Even Ford was only beaten by 4%.

This election is like 2000. It’s helping my prayer life. It’s either time for continued blessing or it’s time for judgment from God. Elections matter.

Mojave Mark on September 18, 2008 at 1:23 AM

We have a presidential candidate who knows jack sh*t about how the economy works and was nominated because he was a POW.

We have a vice presidential candidate who knows jack sh*t about how the economy works and was chosen because she is a woman.

AND THESE ARE THE REPUBLICANS!!!!

The democrats are supposed to suck, but the republicans are supposed to be about ability.

We deserve to lose.

Disagree? then bite me.

Roger Waters on September 17, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Roger – Spot on! Both the Pub and the Dem candidates are JOKES! The pubs should have known better!

Shelby on September 18, 2008 at 1:30 AM

Harpazo on September 18, 2008 at 12:11 AM

Well put, Harpazo. Not to mention Obama can’t talk without his teleprompter so he will sound like the blithering idiot he is. McCain will eat his lunch.

NightmareOnKStreet on September 18, 2008 at 1:33 AM

Wow, one outlier poll (sponsored by an outfit known to be hostile to Republicans) bucks a trend confirmed in nearly all others, and some throw hysterical hissy-fits.
-
Cowboy up, or join the metrosexual party, mmmkay?
-
Obama beat Hillary by following the McGovern model from 1972: running up big margins in the ‘red’ caucus states the rest of the field didn’t bother to seriously contest, winning bunches of delegates in the process. If Hillary had spent even a modest amount on efforts in these states, the proportional representation rules would have given her more than enough delegates to win. Mark Penn blew it by blowing off the states they wouldn’t contest in the fall, and Obama is the result.
-
Obama does very well amongst blacks, the white liberal elite, and gullible youngsters. He has never shown the ability to expand his base beyond them, though.

Adjoran on September 18, 2008 at 3:39 AM

I hate to post this comment, but in the interest of reality and supporting those on here who have noted this matter, I must:

On AP’s happiness at this turn of events:

That’s because I’m a filthy traitor to the conservative cause, Calm. Didn’t you know that? It’s evident in even the slightest critical word I utter, notwithstanding the mountains of abuse I’ve poured on Obama for the last 18 months.

Allahpundit on September 17, 2008 at 6:47 PM

I’m sure you did do so, AP, at a time before McCain got the nomination. But it’s not your “slightest critical word” that’s the problem. It’s your deception. Yes, you are a traitor.

Folks, it appears AP, and indeed MM herself, have adopted the approach of some on the truly far Right that McCain is so bad (read, ticks them off personally) that they actually want Hussein to win the election. The thought on the Right is that a backlash of some sort will occur once Hussein gets in office, and he would be easier for the GOP to resist agenda-wise than McCain.

Ann Coulter took that approach with Hillary Clinton, as I’m sure most remember, but seemed to qualify it with The One, and then almost reversed it with Palin’s pick.

One of MM’s signature issues, of course, is illegal immigration and related cultural matters (note her involvement with VDare.com — http://vdare.com/), perhaps McCain’s weakest “social policy” area. It is probably this aspect of MM (coupled by her departing from them on the Iraq War issue) that has (until now) most endeared her and her efforts to me. However, it seems she let this issue get the better of her judgment. In her article, “Not all is well in GOP land”
(http://michellemalkin.com/2008/09/03/not-all-is-well-in-gop-land/), she expressly intended to “dampen your (GOP) convention enthusiasm” by raising (admittedly) valid issues at a time when it would do the most harm to the ticket. (Two of her three main points pertain to the illegal alien cultural issue.) AP’s behavior here has been the same, by and large.

I guess I’m new enough here that I don’t understand, (and it pisses me off) why Allahpundit has to go immediately to the complete negative? I don’t have a problem with truth and facts, but sometimes it seems as though he goes looking for bad news- please enlighten me.

anniekc on September 17, 2008 at 6:38 PM

You are correct, and it pisses me off, too. For someone to seek to maintain sobriety among supporters is one thing. However, when, as with AP’s stupid headline, “Hotline poll: Palin’s favorables declining” (http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/hotline-poll-palins-favorables-declining/), someone crafts their presentation to cause the most damage to morale, that crosses into the very same game played by the “anti-war” crowd today–taking the enemy’s side. It would be fair to say they will not be too upset should Hussein win.

AP and MM: By operating from this flawed mindset, by focusing more on the issue itself rather than operating from trying to promote the agenda you have regarding the issue, you have acted with self-defeating disregard of the country. Your insistence on ideological purity, your seemingly unbridled willingness to “cut off your nose to spite your face”, and your immature focus in this entire campaign have made you no better than Carly Fiorina. In fact, you are worse. She is just a woman scorned. You are actively hoping to see McCain-Palin lose for policy reasons.

Hotair has been a successful site trafficwise, I’ve been led to believe. But of course, it can only do so much damage. Will it be enough? Have AP and MM delivered the election to someone who WANTS to take your guns, and who WILL so alter the society defended by MM’s friends at VDare as to make America a categorically different country than it has ever been since the original “V-Dare” (look it up)?

Perhaps if/when they find themselves in the bizarro America, with a whole new generation of hate-speech and “cultural diversity” laws, coupled with gun confiscation and the denial of all things traditional, they will think back and say (very quietly, and only to themselves), “Uh, maybe that wasn’t such a good idea.”

Of course, it’ll be too late then.

It’s not too late now, though. Think about it.

Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 6:09 AM

The media polls are absurd. Their constant reporting of daily changes is pure mathematical garbage. Their samples are not representative of the likely voter population and respondents are lying to the pollsters. In most cases the polls are both unreliable and invalid and in some cases intentionally politically biased in favor of a predetermined position. I’m sure that there are some internal polls that are mathematically valid and reasonably predictive, but they do not include the flakey garbage being pumped out by media sources. Ignore them . . . there is only one poll that will matter and that will be conducted in November.

rplat on September 18, 2008 at 8:13 AM

Got this story from Instapundit, one more reason as to why we love Sarah:

Outraised by her well-known Democratic opponent in 2006, Dittman noted, “She didn’t have the support of the party. She did not have the support of labor unions, environmentalists, the oil industry. She did it all by herself.”

Hey, I think the Sarah bounce is gone down a bit because elitists like our own Allah keep throwing cold water at their own party faithful!

It’s amazing that Sarah is keeping up even after all the negative stuff that she is getting from the MSM. Also, I think many conservatives have gotten impatient. We want the moon. This person has been on the campaign less than a month and she is doing wonders in the polls, fund-raising and the campaign trail but no we want foreign policy expertise, we want economic expertise and yadda yadda yadda. And by “expertise” we actually mean that she should have sophisticated conversation with some sophisticated people.

Cheer up. Keep up the excitement because it spreads. Only if we are infected, can we pass the contagion around.

promachus on September 18, 2008 at 8:15 AM

In a CBS poll, Obama leads by 5 (source: 5 members of the View). I’m sure the MSNBC poll has him up by 10. A close race should favor McCain. When it’s time to pull the lever, I’m betting Americans will vote for him.

orlandocajun on September 18, 2008 at 8:36 AM

Take this CBS poll and flush it down the MSM sewer…

Here is a poll that represents the reality of what is going to take place come November…

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?s=al&promo_code=6AB2-1

Keemo on September 18, 2008 at 8:47 AM

Hey, I think the Sarah bounce is gone down a bit because elitists like our own Allah keep throwing cold water at their own party faithful!

It’s amazing that Sarah is keeping up even after all the negative stuff that she is getting from the MSM. Also, I think many conservatives have gotten impatient. We want the moon. This person has been on the campaign less than a month and she is doing wonders in the polls, fund-raising and the campaign trail but no we want foreign policy expertise, we want economic expertise and yadda yadda yadda. And by “expertise” we actually mean that she should have sophisticated conversation with some sophisticated people.

Cheer up. Keep up the excitement because it spreads. Only if we are infected, can we pass the contagion around.

promachus on September 18, 2008 at 8:15 AM

Preach on, brother.

Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 8:53 AM

Take this CBS poll and flush it down the MSM sewer…

Here is a poll that represents the reality of what is going to take place come November…

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?s=al&promo_code=6AB2-1

Keemo on September 18, 2008 at 8:47 AM

I doubt Oregon is a tossup, but New Hampshire could be turned potentially (but not yet). The rest looked plausible.

Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 8:57 AM

So, does anyone think that the ABC hack job was indeed effective? That’ll probably explain the drop in her popularity. The media will congratulate themselves even more and do even more desperate acts.

As for the canned replies, I think maybe Palin’s views differ from Mccain’s a lot. This is probably the way to stick to the message and she has been good at it considering other campaign members(think Carly Fiorina) have gone off the rails.

promachus on September 18, 2008 at 9:12 AM

So, does anyone think that the ABC hack job was indeed effective? That’ll probably explain the drop in her popularity. The media will congratulate themselves even more and do even more desperate acts.

As for the canned replies, I think maybe Palin’s views differ from Mccain’s a lot. This is probably the way to stick to the message and she has been good at it considering other campaign members(think Carly Fiorina) have gone off the rails.

promachus on September 18, 2008 at 9:12 AM

Chalk it up to lessons learned. The Gibson interview didn’t help, but it’s nothing fatal. I keep reminding people of the first Reagan-Mondull debate in 1984. Reagan got tripped up regularly. He was badly prepped. But he and the campaign learned, and following Bush-41 “kick[ing] a little @$$” on Ferraro in the VP debate, knocked Mondull to the mat.

Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 9:16 AM

I don’t think that the polls are going to be a good indicator of the actual result, if the Republican base turns out to vote in record numbers. Polls assume that turnouts remain balanced in accordance with historical data. The focus of the Republican Party needs to be on remaining energized (or should I say Palinized?) and making sure that record turnouts happen in the historically red States. We need to forget the polls and work on getting the silent majority of more conservative voters to show up in November. If they show up, they will reject the far left solution to our economic woes that is epitomized by the Obama/Biden rhetoric. They will choose the more moderate course that will actually be implemented by McCain/Palin.

NuclearPhysicist on September 18, 2008 at 9:50 AM

I don’t think that the polls are going to be a good indicator of the actual result, if the Republican base turns out to vote in record numbers. Polls assume that turnouts remain balanced in accordance with historical data. The focus of the Republican Party needs to be on remaining energized (or should I say Palinized?) and making sure that record turnouts happen in the historically red States. We need to forget the polls and work on getting the silent majority of more conservative voters to show up in November. If they show up, they will reject the far left solution to our economic woes that is epitomized by the Obama/Biden rhetoric. They will choose the more moderate course that will actually be implemented by McCain/Palin.

NuclearPhysicist on September 18, 2008 at 9:50 AM

Very well put. I would only add to remember the battleground states. We need the electoral votes.

Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 9:54 AM

The new Rasmussen Poll today says they are in a dead heat. You ought not to feature this outlier on the homepage as it is misleading.

Gil on September 18, 2008 at 12:31 PM

Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 6:09 AM

Tommygun – Perhaps AP, MM, Peggy Noonan (sp?) Kra…mer (sp?) and many other conservative commentators truly SEE THAT THE McCAIN / PALIN ticket is a terrible one!

TO THOSE OF YOU WHOSE MAIN CONCERN IS GUNS, SUCH AS TommyGUN, you may be too blinded to see what is fact and that explains your frustration over some speaking the truth–it hurts sometimes. Oh yeah, you’re Mr. Liar expert–so you don’t wanna hear that. Whaaaaa!

Shelby on September 18, 2008 at 1:02 PM

The Wall Street collapse will hurt McCain more than Obama, notwithstanding Ed’s efforts to tie all of this back to Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.

jim m on September 17, 2008 at 7:20 PM

I’m seeing this nonsense repeated by all the leftybots across the internet – Freddie and Fannie have nothing to do with the current financial problems!

How pathetic.

flenser on September 18, 2008 at 1:04 PM

One of MM’s signature issues, of course, is illegal immigration and related cultural matters (note her involvement with VDare.com — http://vdare.com/),

It’s the only issue that matters. If the left get their way on that then we’re a Socialist Republic anyway.

Yes, everyone should check out VDARE, one of the best all-round political sites out there.

flenser on September 18, 2008 at 1:09 PM

Perhaps if/when they find themselves in the bizarro America, with a whole new generation of hate-speech and “cultural diversity” laws, coupled with gun confiscation and the denial of all things traditional, they will think back and say (very quietly, and only to themselves), “Uh, maybe that wasn’t such a good idea.”

Dude, you must be about twenty years old, because that bizarro America is here NOW.

flenser on September 18, 2008 at 1:13 PM

Just to clarify my earlier post responding to TommyGun at 1:02 PM:

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/hotline-poll-palins-favorables-declining/#comment-1429680

Make it the smallest, most obscure lie possible (minimize chance of getting caught, minimize damage to your storyline), unless you truly have to go nuclear and lay down a doozy (but that should be a last resort).
Tommygun on September 17, 2008 at 1:08 AM

Are you an expert on lying or an expert liar?
Shelby on September 17, 2008 at 1:31 AM

Yes.
Tommygun on September 17, 2008 at 1:36 AM

Shelby on September 18, 2008 at 1:27 PM

McCain’s biggest problem is being associated with the party in power, especially as the financial markets suggest that someone, somewhere dropped the ball.

The “party in power” in Congress is the Democratic Party. I know it’s a closely guarded secret.

flenser on September 18, 2008 at 1:46 PM

Shelby on September 18, 2008 at 1:27 PM

Yes, I posted all that. It was simply because people were acting “shocked–shocked, I tell you–” over thinking McCain may have lied in this or another campaign. As for my response to Shelby’s question, notice it’s a non-answer: Shelby asks which I was, and my response just says I’m one or the other. It’s a joke often pulled on me by my boss when I ask an either-or question, and was offered there in good fun to illustrate dancing around a question.

Shelby on September 18, 2008 at 1:02 PM

I would say my “one-issue” mindedness is no worth than that of many pro-lifers or that of flenser on September 18, 2008 at 1:09 PM: “[Illegal immigration]’s the only issue that matters.”

BTW, as I mentioned in my original post, MM’s stance on that issue itself is one I agreed with. And for the record, outside of some of their “non-interventionist” Ron Paul-type foreign policy stances, I also recommend VDare. Looking back on how I phrased it — “her involvement with” — I might have appeared to be criticizing it or casting MM’s connection in a negative setting.

Tommygun – Perhaps AP, MM, Peggy Noonan (sp?) Kra…mer (sp?) and many other conservative commentators truly SEE THAT THE McCAIN / PALIN ticket is a terrible one!

That is a valid opinion, and they have a right to it. It’s one many here do not seem to share, at least not if they are being honest (remember what you said about my discussion of lying). Two points on that: 1. Why not offer that criticism in a more forthright manner?; and 2. It’s the ticket “we” are stuck with, so such criticism now only assists in something far worse in power.

flenser on September 18, 2008 at 1:13 PM

There is far too much truth in that. Nonetheless, I was referring to a far more extreme version, where many of the social pressures brought to bear will appear in law on a wider scale than anything seen since the Soviet gulags. That is my fear from a “President Obama”.

Gun control, illegal immigration, “hate-speech laws”–all these and more can and will be the order of the day under Hussein. As “insufficient”, perhaps in places near the point of politicaly “insufferable” one might believe McCain to be on some of them, Hussein’s agenda would be not merely worse, it would be “unsurvivable.”

Please, everybody: Think about the consequences of your attacks.

Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 3:20 PM

You gotta remember that because it says CBS poll, it automatically gives BO a 20 point bounce.
It should read BO trails by 15 but we’re lieing so we put 5 point lead just to make are very stupid audience happy.

BruceB on September 18, 2008 at 8:49 PM

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