Bounce gone: Obama back up by two over McCain in Gallup
posted at 2:05 pm on September 17, 2008 by Allahpundit
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There’s no proof that it’s tied to the market downturn, although Gallup has a hunch. If they’re right, I wonder if we haven’t already seen Maverick peak. Gulp.
The good news? Looks like America isn’t racist today. Whew!
Today’s report includes two days of interviewing conducted after reports of the collapse of Wall Street financial institutions and changes in the stock market began to dominate the news on Monday. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that in each of these individual days (Monday and Tuesday) consumer ratings of the U.S. economy have become more negative. Similarly, in each of these individual days’ interviewing, Obama has led McCain in election tracking. There is thus a correlation between the bad financial news and Obama’s gains, although the data do not allow us to conclude definitively that there is a causal connection between the two. Throughout the campaign, Obama has generally held an edge over McCain when voters are asked who could best handle the U.S. economy, although McCain gained on the economic dimension in polling conducted immediately after the GOP convention.
It’s The One’s first lead since the day after the GOP convention, although McCain still has a (steadily dwindling) edge in Rasmussen. Both polls are within the margin of error. There’s a CBS poll out tonight that should delve into subcurrents; I’m curious to see if the ‘Cuda is, in fact, becoming a bit of an anchor. Current pessimism level: Six, a three-point drop from last week, indicating resignation to defeat — but not by disastrous, party-smashing margins!
Update: Curiouser and curiouser: Hotline’s tracking poll still has Obama in front, but his lead on the economy issue dropped six points overnight.
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Mc Cain needs to strike back with out mercy if he wants to have a chance to become the next President.
pukara61 on September 17, 2008 at 3:56 PM
It’s not time to panic. Historically we are way further behind at this time in the race. The fact that McCain is within the margin of error actually shows greater strength than previous elections and remember we usually win presidential elections.
church on September 17, 2008 at 4:00 PM
This is what always happens: Republicans become complacent and don’t counter the MSM. Did McCain’s campaign learn nothing about how the MSM destroyed President Bush? They should have immediately countered with negative ads against Obama and ads defending Palin. But they didn’t because they were ahead in the polls and wanted to be above the politics. Bad move.
I don’t think Republicans will ever learn the power of the MSM to negatively affect voters’ perceptions. They just turn around and reward them with choice interviews.
Palin should never have agreed to a sit down interview with the MSM. It should have been a live interview, so the MSM could not edit and doing other tricks.
I think the polls will keep going down for McCain until the debates. They could have killed the Obama campaign but backed off and now Obama is ahead again.
Gabe on September 17, 2008 at 4:00 PM
True. I had a cat, indoor cat. Every time she went outside she was catching a mouse or a little bird. She brought tehm inside just to show my mother the trophees. Never eat them.
My cats are doing the same with thier toy mice. If thats not cruelty I wonder what it is. And we are talking about a behaviour in the animal world.
clemycali on September 17, 2008 at 4:01 PM
I look forward to wearing Ingrid Newkirk in a few years. Perhaps few more PETArds will be on the market by then.
trailboss on September 17, 2008 at 4:02 PM
McCain has to make this campaign about the media. He needs to deliver a major speech on the growing moral hazard to society of a corrupt media and begin a series of huge ad buys citing this corruption chapter and verse. Specific, authoritative and relentless. Make CNN defend their own corrupt, degeneratively biased coverage instead of attacking Sarah Palin’s clothing. It’s McCain’s only hope. Anything else he says or does will simply get lost in the shouting. He’s running against the media right now, not Obama. He better figure it out, soon.
rrpjr on September 17, 2008 at 4:10 PM
when is somebody on the McCain campaign going to start calling out all the Dems that were instumental in this economic catastrophe? Obama is the number 2 recipient of contributions from FAnnie and Freddie. Dodd is #1. Then you got the Rangel mess and Schumer, Gorelick. McCain spoke on this coming crisis years ago and warned that action needed to be taken to head it off. They need to put an ad together revealing these things.
church on September 17, 2008 at 4:12 PM
WHO CARES@?$!?@#!~! Most of these pollsters are just Democrats in sheeps clothing – masquerading as impartial gatherers of opinions. Bull-hockey! They want a particular outcome and they will ask ‘random’ people their opinions until they get the outcome they are looking for and quit.
It has been shown time and time again, they slant the questions to get a pre-conceived answer.
Sporty1946 on September 17, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Oh get over your damned obsession with name calling and using Troll! It makes you sound like a witless infantile whiner.
semloh on September 17, 2008 at 4:16 PM
This is why my friends and I joke that he is the anti-Christ. If he actually wins, I don’t think we’ll be joking. It is just beyond my comprehension that someone with so little to offer and so much baggage could even be on the ballot, much less win. Mind boggling. I know the media is powerful, but come on.
I just donated some more money to the RNCPAC. They have to get some commercials out there, hammering on Ayres/Rezko/wright/infanticide/etc… The MSM will not do it, so we have to.
pannw on September 17, 2008 at 4:20 PM
Just happened to catch this comment. While it is true cats do indeed “hunt for sport”, what you describe above may be more related to the cat showing love to your mother by sharing its food. That is a big gesture for an animal.
As for this whole AP topic, don’t forget it’s AP. Plus, this has been a bad week or so. The debates won’t turn it around per se, but the time until election offers a lot of opportunities.
Simple advice: Give the Mc-P campaign the room they need. Many of us have disagreements on various issues. Forget about them (FOR NOW). Let them run as they need to and can best, and win. Then we can deal with the differences in an administration which is at least 1: closer to us, and 2: loyal to the country.
Oh, and ignore AP.
Tommygun on September 17, 2008 at 4:35 PM
Probably the Palin novelty has worn off, and people are scratching their heads about the bank bailout, which gives Barry Baby a chance to blame Bush.
McCain has a huge ace in the hole here if he has the guts to use it–he SAW THIS COMING in 2005 and proposed a reform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which died in the Senate Banking Committee, of which McCain is not a member. He needs to make an ad and tell everyone that his reform THEN could have avoided this, and he can fix it now!
Also, with the sham drilling bill in the House which really BANS drilling where it’s needed (including Alaska!) and imposes new taxes and doesn’t benefit coastal states, Gov. Palin needs to get out there and hammer the energy issue as she knows best, giving Bush the cover to veto this sham, and promise that a McCain/Palin Administration will bring American energy using American workers.
Then there will be the debates: cogent thinking vs. uhhh, ahhh, what?
Steve Z on September 17, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Oh and grow up. I fyou want to banter or say something then SAY IT!
Troll is a acceptable word for rejects. Or how about pansey, liberal wankers, rejects…. but if you really want me to go there. How about Liar. She lied straight out.
Hope that makes you happy. Now eat a twig or something.
upinak on September 17, 2008 at 4:43 PM
You’re treating her like you treated teh Fred! I like the little sarcastic The ‘Cuda you always use.
Okay, AP, I concede. The GOP is gonna lose BIG TIME. So now I don’t need to bother reading from you confirming that anymore and you can go back to drinking your Val-U-Rite Vodka and sleep until January 1st. Maybe Michelle can see if Brian’s available for a few months while you take a hiatus. He could fill us in on the sex robots and iPhone upgrades. It’s not like there’s much technical writing required for that job.
AllahPudit: Banned from my reading repertoire from this point. I’ll stick with Ed for what’s going on in the blogosphere.
Sultry Beauty on September 17, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Indeed.
And I still wonder why “the Boss” even lets that individual participate in this site. It’s one thing to be sobering, even pessimistic at times. It’s another to use deceitful tactics in the process. This particular topic is at least a legitimate story (though the presentation is still biased). There are cases, though, of misstatements, deceptive omissions, etc. The story about Palin’s positives going down was a good example.
AP–The biggest troll on HotAir.
Tommygun on September 17, 2008 at 4:56 PM
I hate to disappoint you Allah, but these tracking polls literally change day to day. After all, just a few days ago they had McCain up. People do not change that fast. Not even with the market. In truth there has been very little change in the polls in weeks.
But if it makes you feel better to blame Palin, go ahead. However, it should be remembered that until McCain put her on the ticket, he had not been in the lead since May.
I am sure that if Romney had gotten the nod, America would have jumped right on board. You just keep telling yourselves that.
Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 4:58 PM
I know. But my mother didn’t like the showing and she was screaming and I or my father had to throw away the throphees. Usless to say the cat was always dissapointed that we didn’t apreciate her good work.I’m smiling remembering the cat. She died in my arms of old age.
John McCain had a few very bad days and even before this didn’t try to push more over Obama’s head. Now he has to play catch up again. Its getting harder and harder. Sometimes I wonder if its not useless even to hope in a McCain win.
clemycali on September 17, 2008 at 4:59 PM
Gabe:
Palin did just fine in that interview. It should be remembered that she is the Governor of Alaska. She is not some idiot who needs to be lead around by the hand by a bunch of pundits and talking heads…most of whom could not win an election if their lives depended on it.
Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 5:03 PM
clem:
If McCain was behind a lot I might agree, but he still has an edge in a lot of battleground states. And a couple of points one way or the other is just not definitive.
Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Maybe you are right but they lost time. They were milking Sarah Palin too much and they didn’t start attacking Obama on economics, on energy independence. And when the Wall Street meltdown happend what we had:Carly Fiorina saying that McCain and Palin are not qualified to work for a top company. Anyway. Lets hope they wake up and start hitting again.
clemycali on September 17, 2008 at 5:16 PM
clem:
They did both. They attacked and they used Palin. But a couple of days is not going to matter. Really. This is politics.
Terrye on September 17, 2008 at 5:29 PM
*shrug*
There is obviously nothing that will stir AP from his nightmare.
Is McCain going to win? I dunno. I’ve honestly never thought he had a chance. For the longest time, I thought he was the media’s perfect candidate, the perfect flower-girl for whomever the Democrats picked. The only reason why he isn’t at Mondale levels right now is Team Barry’s fountain of gaffetastic incompetence. That, and the fact that the Palin pick proved a lot of my assumptions about McCain wrong.
Right now, a victory for McCain is well within reach, AP’s wailing and gnashing of teeth notwithstanding. Despite my earlier disgust with him as a candidate (and my desire that he would lose), I hope very much now that he wins. That hope, however, is pretty much fully predicated on what kind of a conservative Palin turns out to be.
spmat on September 17, 2008 at 5:41 PM
7 weeks = eternity
We have a long time till election day folks. Calm down.
Mojave Mark on September 17, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Start:
Oh get over your damned obsession with name calling and using Troll! It makes you sound like a witless infantile whiner.
Go to Start.
semloh on September 17, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Right on, semloh!
Shelby on September 17, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Okay, I’m back.
Slublog that was quick! Guess you didn’t want anyone thinking you wear panties! ;)
Shelby on September 17, 2008 at 10:35 PM
So anyone whom you don’t agree with is a troll?! Hate much?
I think you are a LIBERAL!!! The libs practice juvenile name calling and hatred. Sounds like you–fess up!
Also, I’m new here…please do tell if previously a poll was taken and you—upinak—was crowned the Bully-Queen of HotAir!
Shelby on September 17, 2008 at 10:42 PM
It’s all about the economy this year. The veep should have been the EXPERT on this subject–Mitt Romney! McCain made up lies about Romney and Iraqi timetables to win Florida and then McCain did not chose the most competent person on both sides of this election as the veep!
What’s that saying…People get the government they deserve…
Shelby on September 17, 2008 at 10:54 PM
I lied? You’re pretty desperate, aren’t ya?!
Clue me in on this “lie” so I can set you straight.
Shelby on September 17, 2008 at 11:02 PM
NEVER give up hope. THAT is the key to losing. With hope, there’s a chance. Without it, there is NO chance. (Oh, and ignore AP.)
Read further.
There is truth to this.
As for the point of “lost time” (from whoever), there are others who say McCain’s bounce peaked too early–that is, that it should have taken MORE time. There’s always the issue of running up the score vs. running down the clock. It’s an art more than a science, I suspect.
There is plenty of time. There are plenty of scandals against the other side brewing. The point is to keep working, not because you want to, but despite the fact you may not.
And a little psychological lesson I learned years ago: When things are going good and you’re all hyped and enthused, that is the time to settle things in your heart and mind. Recognize you will take losses later. Recognize you may fall behind, and be ready for it. Heck, recognize you might lose, come to peace with it, and then fight like it doesn’t matter. If you do that when things are good, you are ready to keep going when things are bad.
Just increase your working–more volunteering, donating, contributing, emailing, etc., etc., etc. And let the campaign have flexibility. If they have to go to the center a bit, or play to the Amnesty crowd, or whatever, just let them. (Yes, I hate it, too.) We can fight those battles later, and we can win. Right now, we need to focus on keeping the One who undercut us in Iraq and wants to take our guns out of the office.
Something appropriate to brighten your heart and lighten your day: http://icanhascheezburger.com/2008/07/07/funny-pictures-fine-give-ded-skwirrel-back-then-plz/
Tommygun on September 17, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Something I posted on another topic — http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/17/cbs-poll-obama-leads-by-five-after-trailing-by-two-post-conventions/comment-page-3/#comment-1433690 on September 18, 2008 at 6:09 AM, but which seems appropriate here as well:
I hate to post this comment, but in the interest of reality and supporting those on here who have noted this matter, I must:
On AP’s happiness at this turn of events:
I’m sure you did do so, AP, at a time before McCain got the nomination. But it’s not your “slightest critical word” that’s the problem. It’s your deception. Yes, you are a traitor.
Folks, it appears AP, and indeed MM herself, have adopted the approach of some on the truly far Right that McCain is so bad (read, ticks them off personally) that they actually want Hussein to win the election. The thought on the Right is that a backlash of some sort will occur once Hussein gets in office, and he would be easier for the GOP to resist agenda-wise than McCain.
Ann Coulter took that approach with Hillary Clinton, as I’m sure most remember, but seemed to qualify it with The One, and then almost reversed it with Palin’s pick.
One of MM’s signature issues, of course, is illegal immigration and related cultural matters (note her involvement with VDare.com — http://vdare.com/), perhaps McCain’s weakest “social policy” area. It is probably this aspect of MM (coupled by her departing from them on the Iraq War issue) that has (until now) most endeared her and her efforts to me. However, it seems she let this issue get the better of her judgment. In her article, “Not all is well in GOP land”
(http://michellemalkin.com/2008/09/03/not-all-is-well-in-gop-land/), she expressly intended to “dampen your (GOP) convention enthusiasm” by raising (admittedly) valid issues at a time when it would do the most harm to the ticket. (Two of her three main points pertain to the illegal alien cultural issue.) AP’s behavior here has been the same, by and large.
You are correct, and it pisses me off, too. For someone to seek to maintain sobriety among supporters is one thing. However, when, as with AP’s stupid headline, “Hotline poll: Palin’s favorables declining” (http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/hotline-poll-palins-favorables-declining/), someone crafts their presentation to cause the most damage to morale, that crosses into the very same game played by the “anti-war” crowd today–taking the enemy’s side. It would be fair to say they will not be too upset should Hussein win.
AP and MM: By operating from this flawed mindset, by focusing more on the issue itself rather than operating from trying to promote the agenda you have regarding the issue, you have acted with self-defeating disregard of the country. Your insistence on ideological purity, your seemingly unbridled willingness to “cut off your nose to spite your face”, and your immature focus in this entire campaign have made you no better than Carly Fiorina. In fact, you are worse. She is just a woman scorned. You are actively hoping to see McCain-Palin lose for policy reasons.
Hotair has been a successful site trafficwise, I’ve been led to believe. But of course, it can only do so much damage. Will it be enough? Have AP and MM delivered the election to someone who WANTS to take your guns, and who WILL so alter the society defended by MM’s friends at VDare as to make America a categorically different country than it has ever been since the original “V-Dare” (look it up)?
Perhaps if/when they find themselves in the bizarro America, with a whole new generation of hate-speech and “cultural diversity” laws, coupled with gun confiscation and the denial of all things traditional, they will think back and say (very quietly, and only to themselves), “Uh, maybe that wasn’t such a good idea.”
Of course, it’ll be too late then.
It’s not too late now, though. Think about it.
Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 6:18 AM
Just a thought on why AP acts this way:
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/17/cbs-poll-obama-leads-by-five-after-trailing-by-two-post-conventions/comment-page-3/#comment-1433690
Tommygun on September 18, 2008 at 6:27 AM
Tommygun – Perhaps AP, MM, Peggy Noonan (sp?) Kra…mer (sp?) and many other conservative commentators truly SEE THAT THE McCAIN / PALIN ticket is a terrible one!
TO THOSE OF YOU WHOSE MAIN CONCERN IS GUNS, TommyGUN, you may be too blinded to see what is fact and that explains your frustration over some speaking the truth–it hurts sometimes. Oh yeah, you’re Mr. Liar expert–so you don’t wanna here that. Whaaaaa!
Shelby on September 18, 2008 at 12:10 PM
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