Hotline poll: Palin’s favorables declining
posted at 5:05 pm on September 16, 2008 by Allahpundit
The numbers aren’t as dire as in the, ahem, Daily Kos tracking poll favored by Andrew Sullivan, but there does seem to be some erosion going on:
The poll has Obama up four over McCain so it’s a bit of an outlier, but keep an eye out for her favorables in major polls out tomorrow or on Thursday for comparison. It’s worrisome how quickly the trend has moved: As of Saturday, after both nights of the Gibson interviewed had aired, she was still +22, higher than any of the other three candidates. Three days later she’s +11, lower than both Democrats. The Gibson interviews finished Friday; if they’re the catalyst, I’m not sure why we’d be seeing such delayed movement. There must have been something over the weekend that nudged people. Was it the NYT and WaPo hit pieces? The fire she took on the Sunday morning talk shows? The, gulp, SNL skit? McCain’s favorables have also eroded, so maybe all the media whining about his ads has penetrated and Palin’s simply absorbed some collateral damage. Or maybe not: “What’s more, 35% of RVs now say Palin is ‘very unprepared’ to serve as POTUS — up from 28% who said so in the sample completed immediately after the GOP convo (fielded 9/5-7).” Could be that her leveling off is dragging him down, not vice versa.
Exit question: Big rebound coming from tomorrow night’s softball game with Hannity, right?
Blowback
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MSM is gonna win, unless we win the debates BIG.
marklmail on September 16, 2008 at 6:10 PM
“in what regard?” LOL i had to, im sorry.
but yea, im not sure which comment you’re referring to…cuz if its the russia one…im sorry, im not taking one random bloggers word on the matter.
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 6:10 PM
It’s surprising her numbers aren’t much worse. She has been subjected to a withering media assualt to distort and destroy, and then was set up by her own campaign for the Gibson ambush. These poll respondents are the same people who get their version of reality from ABC every night. The GOP will have to do much better with both Palin and McCain in the coming weeks if they expect to hold the edge.
FalseProfit on September 16, 2008 at 6:10 PM
While we all chortled that Obama’s attacks on Palin would backfire, the actual result has been that Palin has been completely neutralized, and by next week she will be as big a liability to McCain as she was an asset the first week. Nobody rises as fast as Palin without crashing to the ground just as quickly. In Palin’s case, the crash is so violent that nobody will be able to pick up the pieces. She will have McCain to thank, not for the vice-presidency, but for the end of her political career and maybe even her marriage and family. How delusional have we become!
jay12 on September 16, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Have you seen the internals of this poll 40% dems 29% rep.31% ind. this poll is a joke!!!
thmcbb on September 16, 2008 at 6:17 PM
Screw’m – McCain / Palin: get my vote, get my money, get my shoe leather.
Onager on September 16, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Is this the sort of posting that makes AP go wobbly? How delusional?..!
Haunchie on September 16, 2008 at 6:21 PM
Her ability to take a punch and her fiestiness will win more people over.
If that doesn’t work, we just have to wait for Obama or Biden to screw something else up, which should happen in about 10 seconds…..
Hog Wild on September 16, 2008 at 6:24 PM
WE HAVE A WINNAH!
marklmail on September 16, 2008 at 6:26 PM
jay12:
You are full of it. I don’t know if you are an Obama fan or a pissed off Romney supporter, but Palin is still very viable.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Don’t confuse “fiestiness” with “snide, testy, and defensive with nothing to back it up with.” :]
an_abstraction on September 16, 2008 at 6:27 PM
thmcbb:
Is that really true? Is there only 29% Republicans? If so, what the hell are we even doing talking about it?
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:28 PM
I don’t think there’s any significant erosion except the eight point undercounting of Repubs in the polls. But that couldn’t possibly have any effect on the percentages of favorable unfavorable. Naw. Of course not.
eaglewingz08 on September 16, 2008 at 6:29 PM
an_abstraction:
This woman has an approval rating of over 80% in her home state where people know her best. Over 75% of the Democrats in that state view her favorably. Now you can play the old strong women are bitches card all you want, but that does not change the fact that the people who know Sarah Palin best, like and respect her.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Possibly all the conservative commentators who’ve decided, for some reason, that Charlie Gibson mopped the floor with her. (See Rich Lowery, Jonah Goldberg, et al.) When your own side decides to follow the lefty take on something like that what do you expect.
srhoades on September 16, 2008 at 6:31 PM
an abstraction:
Maybe you just think a strong woman is mean or something. But back in her home state where people know Sarah Palin she has an approval rating of over 80%. Even 75% of Democrats view her favorably. The people who know her best like and respect her. Unlike the NYT.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:32 PM
srhoades:
Yes, there was all that whining about the Bush Doctrine.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:33 PM
I thought only Democrats took surveys. I certainly don’t sit there for questioning, life’s too short. Besides, if polls were accurate, President Bore and VP Silky would be currently polling on raising the CAFE standards on lawnmowers.
rhodeymark on September 16, 2008 at 6:34 PM
The Gibson interview may have hurt Palin, not so much for what she said, but the way ABC edited what she said, throwing out most of her substantive answers, and leaving in a Gibson question, cutting Palin’s answer out, then leaving in her answer to a different question, making it seem as if Palin wasn’t answering the question!
Palin has also been hammered on non-issues such as her family, her daughter’s pregnancy, and all sorts of slimy rumors that need to be debunked. Eventually, when the rumor mill comes up empty, people will trust her again, and in the meantime, she needs to be out on the campaign trail, talking about specific reforms, especially energy issues, and criticizing Obama’s lack of experience–her attacks can throw him off-message, leaving McCain free to concentrate on issues.
The bank failures and Hurricane Ike have probably derailed both campaigns for a few days, but if McCain can get the high road on economic reform, and Palin can take up the energy issue, they can get the campaign back on track. There are still some skeletons left in Obama’s closet–Bill Ayers, Annenberg Challenge, his intereference in Iraq (Amir Taheri) that haven’t really been exposed yet, but maybe McCain is keeping them in reserve for October, if he isn’t leading in the polls after the debates.
But it is time to get some specific proposals out there, to show Obama for the empty suit he is.
Steve Z on September 16, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Obama-bots have invaded.
Haunchie on September 16, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Well, I’m sure gonna keep a note on this prediction.
csdeven on September 16, 2008 at 6:39 PM
Game over for Obama.
I have faith in the American people that we are way too damn smart to elect socialist, arrogant dickheads to be our next Pres. and VP
So how do you explain the electorate putting Pelossi and Reid in control of congress?
I think the relentless hit jobs from the media will take their toll and eventually destroy Sarah, even if there is backlash the first few weeks, they will eventually do their job in implanting their view in peoples subconscious. look what happened with Katrina, they started with ridiculous reports of tenths of thousands of dead which served the purpose of softening the ground for relentless attacks on Bush. Now in the public eye Bush’s responsibility for any deficiencies is blown all out of proportion and the responsibility of local and state governments is non-existent in peoples minds. Do not underestimate the power of the media or overestimate the ability of the masses to be immune to constant negative messages, no mater how false or ridiculous they are.
neuquenguy on September 16, 2008 at 6:39 PM
banning reading material
She never banned any reading material, but obviously not all reading material is fit for kids and that’s what the questions to the library were about.
paying ANY lip service to creationists
Oh I don’t think she is merely paying lip service, I think she is a creationist like most Christians. Thank goodness because evolution is an absurd fairy tale.
no abortion even in case of rape or incest
Was it the babies’ fault that the rape or incest occurred? How do you justify killing the child in any case?
Yes, Sarah’s a real conservative, that’s why the base is energized and that’s why McCain will win big.
Maxx on September 16, 2008 at 6:40 PM
I did a weird double post thing there, abridged. Sorry for the repeat.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:40 PM
As compared to your ‘humanity’?
How would you know?
csdeven, good to see you.
Entelechy on September 16, 2008 at 6:42 PM
Yeah, Daego/Hotline isn’t biased at all.
SouthernGent on September 16, 2008 at 6:44 PM
This was inevitable. The honeymoon was going to come to an end .. that level of gah-gah just isn’t sustainable for very long unless the media plays along.
When it comes to the booth, people are just not going to allow for a third Republican term .. especially when the perception is that things are bad bad bad bad. (I’m still not sold on the economy as a whole being in the toilet .. because I was forced to take some economics classes in college and found them interesting in spite of myself)
My prediction .. sadly .. Obama in a very close one.
Hope I’m wrong.
cgoode777 on September 16, 2008 at 6:44 PM
Rassmussen and Zogby, both on Hannity’s radio program today, both have her favorable numbers up high while giving her much of the credit for the McCain bounce. McCain/Palin are ahead in many of the swing states, and are currently ahead in Pennsylvania and close in Jersey.
Palin has been under attack for (2) solid weeks now, with little or no effects. Independents are moving towards McCain in large numbers nationally, and the Conservative base is fired up like I haven’t seen them since the days of Reagan.
What we don’t need, is our own side putting road blocks in the path of the mighty MOmentum….
Keemo on September 16, 2008 at 6:45 PM
No, sorry, that’s no excuse either. You go into an interview with the media you have. If she couldn’t fight back against him in a way that couldn’t be spun, then they shouldn’t have had her do the interview.
I don’t fully, or even primarily, blame her for the interview. Normally I would, but with so many campaign appearences and events, you have to be able to trust that your advisors and media consultants are going to help you stay prepared. It’s ok she didn’t know exactly what he meant by the bush doctrine. It’s not ok that she sounded scripted whenever she was talking about islamic terrorism and econimic policy.
Obviously, whoever prepped her suggested that she stick to some key talking points, rather than suggesting she keep a few specific examples in mind. The part about being able to see Russia is likely to become a running joke. It’s very likely that someone who was coaching her suggested she use that line, or approved of it when she suggested it. Someone with more media and PR savvy would have said “No, Governor, it’s better in this interview to talk about specific interactions with the Russians. Can you think of an anecdote where you had to deal with them, directly or indirectly?” Then she would have gone into the interview with a concrete experience in mind, and people who didn’t know her would see her talking about some situation she dealt with as governor, and would SEE that she was experienced.
That’s what makes me angry about the interview. It’s not that she came across as unprepared. It’s that she probably actually IS prepared, and we would have seen that more if we had more media savvy on our side.
RINO in Name Only on September 16, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Yep, this is a feel good poll for the left, nothing more. That’s cool, they paid for it. But building themselves up on this false hope is going to make for a mighty long fall in November.
Maxx on September 16, 2008 at 6:45 PM
I don’t think the McCain campaign can take Obama saying he is lying without really defending themselves. Even I was thinking it could be true. I remember he got where he is by bald faced lying about Mitt Romney. So he is vulnerable on that account.
They need to get Palin making more speeches and fresh material. That is how Obama kept his popularity for so long is speeches. When he started to answer questions he became a real person and was found defective.
petunia on September 16, 2008 at 6:49 PM
I know this has been said before .. but trolls are best met with silence. Don’t respond to them .. it’s beneath all of the people whose posts I’ve been reading around here.
I’m all for healthy debate, but when the premises of their arguments are factually and demonstrably incorrect, what’s the point? The whole reason they’re here is to get heated reactions out of the right.
Why indulge them?
Is the point to change their minds?
Won’t happen.
To illustrate that they’re ill-informed wingnuts to the rest of the readers of the board?
They do that themselves with their posts.
cgoode777 on September 16, 2008 at 6:50 PM
Speaking of polls… I could have swore that the Gallup tracking poll was of LV yesterday and today it is RV. McCain always does better in the LV surveys. Am I wrong?
petunia on September 16, 2008 at 6:50 PM
Okay Allah-
we all know you’re sharper than that.
You left that little tidbit out on purpose- didn’t ya.
FiveWays on September 16, 2008 at 6:50 PM
What we all must realize, is this race is far from over. Donate money, time, and any other resource available; join forces with local grassroots efforts. We are heading for the home stretch, and I assure you all that Democrat ground forces will be out in huge numbers. Obama has the MSM working 24/7 for his campaign, and this work is for FREE! Despite the shrinking power of the MSM, they represent a huge advantage for Democrats.
If we are not ready to fight for this victory, we are likely to lose, and will wake up on November 5th to hear the words “newly elected President of the Unites State, Barack Hussein Obama… We we stay energized and work our butts off, McCain/Palin could win and win big.
Keemo on September 16, 2008 at 6:52 PM
Umm… shouldn’t we be more concerned about McCain’s favorables declining?
It shouldn’t matter as long as the distribution of respondents stays constant over time. A decline in favorability is bad even if the poll were 100% Democrat.
viking999 on September 16, 2008 at 6:54 PM
That was not an AP post, sure read like it.
WoosterOh on September 16, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Then what you’re saying is-
this poll is pointless.
FiveWays on September 16, 2008 at 6:57 PM
I looked at Rasmussen earlier and in a match up Palin_Biden she leads 47-44. What we can read is that the McCain’s campaign got everything was possible after her surprise nomination and after the convention and its time to go into the next gear. Let’s talk about economy, about gas prices, about Charlie Rangel, and so on.
Amen.
clemycali on September 16, 2008 at 6:57 PM
It is too bad that she didn’t hit it out of the park. They might have been better off with doing the Hannity interview first even though they would have gotten flack for it. At least she could have some practice nationally before she faced the hostiles.
I think she must have some international experience she did negotiate the pipeline with Canada. Wasn’t there some fairly high level people she worked with? And didn’t she host some fairly high level Chinese government officials in Alaska? I mean how many high level contacts did Edwards or Quayle, or Geraldine have when they were chosen? The McCain people should have gotten her on the phone with some more of his cronies over seas so she could have name dropped a bit more, even if she admitted that they were causal conversations… heck she could call up Putin and just say howdy neighbor! And then say she spoke to him on the phone once.
petunia on September 16, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Howdy.
csdeven on September 16, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Ahhh, a fellow Kung-Fu Master joins the fray…
SuperCool on September 16, 2008 at 7:00 PM
Do drugs often do we?
petunia on September 16, 2008 at 7:04 PM
Palin’s dropped at most 4% points in a poll that oversampled Dems by 10% points. That indicates to me that about half of all Democrats still have a favorable view of her (if they were all unfavorable, her favorable rating would have been much less).
What’s newsworthy about this is not that her favorable ratings might be declining a bit (that is, they are stabilizing — it was unrealistic to assume that they would remain in the stratosphere once the electorate moved out of the honeymoon phase). What’s newsworthy is that even a heavily slanted poll puts her decline at only 4%.
Just a thought experiment: assuming that Palin enjoys 80% (a conservative guess) favorability among Republicans, and given a poll that has relative parity (~35%) in its polling of Repub’s and Dem’s, do the numbers in the actual poll suggest that she may actually have seen a slight increase in her favorability ratings?
I’d love to see the poll broken down by R/D/I affiliation.
Harpazo on September 16, 2008 at 7:06 PM
I just realized that this is the “Hotline” poll that almost always has Obama up.
When both Gallup and Rassmusen had McCain up 4-5 Hotline still had Obama up by 2 or so. What’s up with that?
There is some reason that they show Obama consistently higher than all the others. Anyone know who they are? They are “new” is all I could find out.
petunia on September 16, 2008 at 7:09 PM
I learned not to take my dreams to be reality. She is not going to be a liability for McCain. After 2 weeks of media frenzy is only natural to have a Palinomania fatigue. And I look at the news and I don’t think they have anything to do with Palin and her gender. Is about economy now and who is better prepeared to weather the financial storm. Who is calm and who cries “disater”.
clemycali on September 16, 2008 at 7:10 PM
I’d say something, but I saw the DON’T FEED THE TROLLS sign on my way in….
Hog Wild on September 16, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Thanks for pointing out the significant oversampling of Democrats in this poll. I agree. This poll is unreliable.
Loxodonta on September 16, 2008 at 7:13 PM
No, it does matter, as Democrat voters can not reasonably be expected to maintain favorable feelings for an opposition candidate, particularly one who has been so effective against their candidate. So any opposition numbers in Palin’s favor should be viewed as, at best, short-lived.
This isn’t to say that the opposition voters viewing Palin favorably is a bad thing, quite the contrary, but they could not be expected to matter positively (i.e., vote for McCain/Palin in Nov). Also, just because Palin’s favorable ratings are decreasing does not mean Obama’s/Biden’s are increasing. Indeed — the poll shows basically a flat line for both Obama and Biden while Palin’s numbers have changed. That indicates that those voters are more apathetic (more apt to stay home) than enthused, one way or the other.
Harpazo on September 16, 2008 at 7:14 PM
Although I appreciate your rebuttal of the other post, I don’t think you can support this statement (that most Christians are creationists). Catholicism, the largest Christian sect in this country, does not teach creationism.
Irrespective of Palin’s personal religious views, I’m satisfied that she would not use her position as VP (or President) to develop a federal education policy requiring that Intelligent Design be part of science curriculum. I haven’t seen any reports of her pushing for ID to be taught in Alaska public schools. Her position has been that it would be ok for a short discussion of ID in a classroom if a question arose from a student, not that it be part of the curriculum.
As a scientist and former educator, I can think of ways I could properly handle a (very short) discussion of ID in a biology class that would avoid religion and refocus the students on what a scientific theory is.
Y-not on September 16, 2008 at 7:16 PM
Let me guess, this poll was posted by Hot Air’s resident agent of the DNC, Allah Pundit, right?
Dude, If you insist on trying to break the morale of conservatives, why don’t you just sign on with Andy Sullivan? He too, is a “true” conservative.
MCPO Airdale on September 16, 2008 at 7:18 PM
Lets find a poll on Obama’s favorability with a sampling of 100% republicans.
C’mon AP.
csdeven on September 16, 2008 at 7:25 PM
That doesn’t surprise me.
It was only a matter of time as to when her preeminence as the GOP energy guru would be questioned.
For example; she says…
All righty Sarah; your exuberance is only exceed by your ignorance.
It’s actually only 2.4%, decimal points are important when you’re an energy expert!
J_Gocht on September 16, 2008 at 7:25 PM
What do you think this is, The Official RNC Cheerleading Website? The point of this site, as I understand it, is to discuss politics as it is, albeit from a conservative persective.
There is nothing conservative about ignoring facts in the service of “morale” boosting. If you disagree and think things are more optimistic, just say so. The idea that anyone who expresses doubts about a Republican is a DNC plant is the mirror image of the insanity offered at sites like the Daily Kos.
RINO in Name Only on September 16, 2008 at 7:27 PM
Yep. As others state, negative polling data about Palin is being posted. AllahPundit on the header: Check.
You spend your entire day searching for this stuff Allah? Last time it was Rasmussin polling data from Sept. 1st, 3 days after Palin was announced to Independents about how Independents didn’t know her well or think her as qualified as Biden. Now Diageo Hotline Poll? Who the heck are they? Has anyone even heard of them? Thanks for the update Allah. Palin’s obviously tanking. Heard on Hewitt she was bringing in 5,000 for a pancake breakfast meet and greet in Colorado when they only expect about 1,000 on a Monday morning. Yep! Her favorables are obviously tanking.
Moving right along….
Sultry Beauty on September 16, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Daego/Hotline is up so far Obama’s a$$ they think they are Larry Sinclair.
elduende on September 16, 2008 at 7:31 PM
RINO:
Palin did just fine in that interview. No stuttering or him hawing around, no loss for words. I honestly do not know what some people are talking about when they attack her performance. I mean, have you ever watched an interview with Obama???? She did as well as he ever does.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 7:32 PM
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 6:01 PM
for God’s sakes, it was her 1st interview…alot of time left in this campaign..I am pretty sure by the time 4Nov rolls around everyone will have forgotten the interview…
Static21 on September 16, 2008 at 7:37 PM
No, sorry, it’s what happened.
Jim Treacher on September 16, 2008 at 7:38 PM
When AP posts, some conservatives sigh, others ignite. Well done.
Fuquay Steve on September 16, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Which they played at 11:30 at night, correct?
Jim Treacher on September 16, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Hysterical and ignorant people can make up stuff about Palin but the reality is that she has governed from the Center in Alaska. No creationism in the schools, no abortion doctors on death row, no book burning weenie rosts. Nothing like that.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 7:43 PM
If you only steer to the right, you’ll sail in circles.
I think AP wants the Good Ship HotAir to traverse more of the ocean of thought, not be trapped in a shallow puddle.
I happen to agree, and think that is exactly why HA is as popular as it is with sentient beings that have grown more than a brainstem.
Carry on, you pessimistic, atheistic, magnificent bastard.
trailboss on September 16, 2008 at 7:45 PM
Sultry_B, she’s actually a huge hit “with the choir”..!
Johnny Mc has empty seats where ever he goes and she fills the house to the rafters…!
The questioning and the so called erosion is only occurring in the Independent Camp!
There’re still 53 days to go; gosh I sure hope she didn’t peak to early…?
I’m sure she’ll come roarin’ back…
J_Gocht on September 16, 2008 at 7:46 PM
I think we’re talking around each other, and I shouldn’t have taken such a snide tone in my earlier reply.
I agree 100% that the media did all of these things. My point is, it was a given that the media was going to play gotacha the way they did, and she should have either been prepared for that, or not done the interview.
Like I said before, I don’t really blame her, since she is obviously extremely busy with campaign appearences and such. But someone with more experience dealing with the media should have prepped her better.
My complaint is about how prepared she was to deal with the media, not how prepared she is to govern.
RINO in Name Only on September 16, 2008 at 7:46 PM
Don’t worry about it. Happens to everybody.
She couldn’t prepare for every possible question they could have asked. And they obviously would have found or concocted a gotcha no matter what she did. The only way around it, I agree, would’ve been to refuse the interview. As it is, in my eyes she only ended up revealing ABC’s, or at least Gibson’s, bias.
Jim Treacher on September 16, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Sorry Allah, but Hotline’s in the tank for Obama and their polls don’t mean a damn thing.
eyedoc on September 16, 2008 at 7:53 PM
RINO – My complaint is that the majority of AP’s posts are designed to sow discontent and harm the morale of conservatives. Ever heard of a “Self-fulfilling Prophecy”?
MCPO Airdale on September 16, 2008 at 7:58 PM
I get annoyed with it too, MCPO, but AP is doing no such thing. He’s just a Gloomy Gus.
Jim Treacher on September 16, 2008 at 7:59 PM
You’re right that she didn’t stutter or appear at a loss for words, but the problem is, she was so stuffed with vague talking points that it sounded unnatural, like somone BSing their way through the interview. It’s ok sometimes to be vague during a speech, but not in an interview like this.
I agree that Obama doesn’t have much substance either, but the media like him enough to give him a pass. The point is not how she stacks up to Obama in a fair fight, it’s how she contributes to the Republican ticket in the unfair fight that we find ourselves in.
My problem is that she was too vague, and probably because she was coached to be vague, rather than to discuss specific policies, examples, and anecdotes. I’m sure she has had to deal with a number of specific situations involving energy policy and the Russians, and I’d like to hear her use these in her answers during the interview. It would be a lot more impressive, and would likely help her a lot with independents.
RINO in Name Only on September 16, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Yeah, I got one of those frantic Sarah’s banned books emails from a former work associate (guess it never occurred to her that I was a conservative, huh?). I wanted to reply with a link about the “difference in pay between women and men on the Obama vs McCain senate staffs, but didn’t bother.
Another former work colleague who also received the email (who I knew was a closet Republican, but apparently our friend did not) sent a reply with the facts debunking this myth. That solicited an immediate, “Yeah, well maybe it’s not true but she’s a devil-worshipper…” mass reply.
(Ok, I’m kidding about the devil-worshipper part. I know that’s Romney.) /sarc
For some strange reason I decided that a person who hadn’t bothered to ever solicit my opinion about politics before including me on a mass email of democratic raving points wasn’t going to be swayed by anything I could say.
Maybe if I were smarter… although, I did live in Obama’s neighborhood for 7 years. Oh well.
Y-not on September 16, 2008 at 8:03 PM
Terrye said: “Hysterical and ignorant people can make up stuff about Palin but the reality is that she has governed from the Center in Alaska.”
She did what she did in at least one situation (striking down a bill prohibiting same sex benefits) because she was told it likely violated Alaska’s constitution. You don’t know what she would have done had the advice been different.
jim m on September 16, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Sarah Palin has become a serial exaggerator. She is reminding me more and more of Al Gore.
KentAllard on September 16, 2008 at 8:09 PM
The Hotline poll is a joke, I don’t know why it is even included in RCP’s list of polls.
Last week they released results giving Obama far more of an advantage than any of the rest of the polls, the link at RCP led to their website where they reported the %Reps, %Dems and %Inds. The Dems were highly over-represented. The poll was savaged in its comments section.
Now I see that links to their results (from RCP and here) don’t report the percentages of R,D &Is and there is nowhere to comment.
29Victor on September 16, 2008 at 8:10 PM
you know what, i was referring to a comment someone made about Palin NOT being a traditional values person. all i was saying is that she IS, in fact, a traditional values person…as you so eloquently pointed out
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 8:11 PM
I know the country has been shifting on benefits for same-sex couples, but I hardly think that opposing them is a fringe position, particularly when you are governor of a state trying to cut costs. I was at a Big Ten school when the administration decided to add them and we had a lot of complaints from alumni all over the country.
Having said that, my guess is that she would still have struck down that bill assuming that the state could afford to provide benefits to that minority.
Y-not on September 16, 2008 at 8:11 PM
The subjects of these polls are generally those whose intellectual diet consists of Katie Couric, Oprah, and Keith Olbermann; lest we forget the “polls” had Kerry winning BY A LANDSLIDE…
Sarah Palin is the first pol to bring a smile to my face since I put down a book of letters between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson (I was in the sixth grade when Reagan was sworn in).
Polls, shmolls!
CaliConstitutionalist on September 16, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Okay AP, I’ll see your negative Palin poll and raise you this:
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/9/16/mccain-has-the-advantage-over-obama-in-post-convention-polls.html?msg=1
CC
CapedConservative on September 16, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Well, I concede the point about the gotcha question. I agree those are inevitable, and you can’t prepare for all of them. But I stand by my point about coming in armed with specific examples to discuss. That way, after Gibson reveals to the audience that she doesn’t know this somewhat obscure technical term, and gives his definition of the Bush Doctrine meaning “pre-emption”, she can answer,
“Well Charlie, I have really viewed Bush’s primary foreign policy concern not to be about general philosophies like Pre-emption, but about dealing with a specific threats, like the one posed by Saddam. Keep in mind that this man had had a history of both using WMD’s, against for example, the Kurds, and hiding them, as he did throughout the 90′s. So this was an exceptional circumstance. He also had a history of cooperating with terrorists. So I view his decisions in the context of that history, rather than any general philosophy.”
Then anyone listening can see that it doesn’t matter whether she knows the term Bush doctrine, because she clearly knows the specifics of the foreign policy issue being discussed. Although, to be honest, that part of the interview didn’t bother me nearly as much as the part about Russia. I feel like she must have some good anecdotes she can share that would really get across the idea that she has been involved in serious policy issues.
Anyway, it very well might be that I am just getting jittery (It’s what I do around this time.) But I think we’ll do better if McCain and Palin’s people work a bit harder in making sure her experience comes across.
RINO in Name Only on September 16, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Funny. Palin gets a hoard of negative media, intense scrutiny and an actual hard-ball interview and her support softens by a few points. Obama gets pattycake interviews (save one) and a litany of (literally) glowing support in print, and he’s taken a double digit hit in all of the polls. Biden needs a laugh track at his stump speeches for all the gafftastic unforced errors he keeps making.
Yet Palin is the problem.
Sorry. Don’t buy that. AP’s good enough of a writer to make that evident without saying it outright, such as his language when writing about the Middle East. The undercurrent in this is not pessimism. It’s contempt. Not strong, to be sure, but it’s there.
Contempt for what, I don’t know, but my instincts tell me it’s about not only her choice as VP and the political realities that made apparent, but also the explosion of support it garnered and the stark ideological reality it conclusively proved. AP is squaring the circle of sharing a political bed with bible-thumping morons, for the sake of saving Western culture as a whole, by indulging in cleverly weaved snark at Palin’s expense whenever possible.
I’m saying this because I believe it to be so, which it certainly may not be, but I’m not going to stop reading him, whether he’s talking Palin or Palestinians. I don’t care for his attitude on a lot of issues, but I’d be a fool to not read what he has to say about them.
spmat on September 16, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Oh, we already know that about Obama. Thanks for reminding us.
BKennedy on September 16, 2008 at 8:36 PM
I always found that when I’m sad and blue it is best to spread the gloom. Thanks AP. I suppose the sun will come out tomorrow, but I’m not so sure anymore.
Fuquay Steve on September 16, 2008 at 8:42 PM
I meant to use the sarcasm button but forgot. Sorry.
Fuquay Steve on September 16, 2008 at 8:43 PM
First, the shift is small and even if accurate, can be reversed without panicking.
Second, people got cocky, and now when there’s a small downturn so many are ready to give up. That is exactly what I said would happen if people weren’t careful. (Palin isn’t crashing, the people here are.)
Third (a quick self-indulgence):
But I thought a day or so ago so many of you were saying, based on one tabloid-looking article in the Post, that NY was back in play? I remember being pounded on for trying to be realistic. (Self-indulgence ended, and sad I appear to have been correct.)
Some people here need to learn to stay calm, ignore AP, and simply keep working at it. Looking at the results in that poll show basically a two-point loss for McCain-Palin in several categories. It’s not just Palin, as AP deceptively suggests. It could be a trend, or it could simply be an off sample. The next few days will tell a lot.
What we can be sure of is that if people give up, it is lost.
Tommygun on September 16, 2008 at 8:46 PM
And then there’s this:
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/sep/15/carville-poll-obamas-behind-3/
Carville poll… now there’s someone that will fudge a poll in favor of Republicans.
Besides, all pollsters are racist. How do I know, you ask? Well, they never mention or try to measure the impact of the Bradley Effect but I’ve seen it mentioned otherwise as being 5-8%. How is that racist? Well, don’t city fathers typically name a street Dr. Martin Luther King (Blvd, Ave, Pkwy, etc) to both honor Dr. King and identify the black neighborhood to prospective residents of their fine cities.
CC
CapedConservative on September 16, 2008 at 8:50 PM
So why is this poll included because frankly it is messing up McCain’s numbers and I wanted to remain in fantasyland that this could be more than just another tie race but a real mandate for change!
I think the media, including RCP, has a stake in keeping the race as close as possible. If one or other of the canidates get very far ahead they will get half the hits and audience. I feel so manipulated all the time.
Obama has turned out to be such a horrible canidate that I can’t believe the polls are truly tied! He has not got the experience to be President. Period. It is irrational to elect him, against the self-interests of the country. I can’t believe it will happen.
ARRRRRGGGGG! But it could happen!
petunia on September 16, 2008 at 8:51 PM
You are a very cynical man… but the Carville poll was nice enough…but it’s a day old already!!!!
petunia on September 16, 2008 at 9:05 PM
Cynical? Okay, then tell me why that street name is NEVER applied to one of the nicest streets in town, regardless of location and is ALWAYS applied to a street in the minority section of town? After all, who would care where the street is actually located… it’s being named to honor Dr. King.
CC
CapedConservative on September 16, 2008 at 9:11 PM
The S.S. Palin will weather this trough and bob up with a smile.
profitsbeard on September 16, 2008 at 9:36 PM
Actually I think I can although I could not find a poll that specifically dealt with Christians. Firstly this gallup poll states that only 36% of Americans believe that people evolved and God played no part in it, which is pure evolution. However 44% believe we were created in our present form. Another 14% believes it was a combination of God and evolution.
This Gallup video breaks it down a bit differently. The poll number I found most interesting was that only 30% of Republicans believe in evolution. The video also states that only 24% of weekly church goers believe in evolution, it didn’t break it down by specific religions.
In any case, given the data I found I think its pretty safe to say most Christians do not believe in evolution. Let me also add I don’t have a lot of faith in polls but this is the best I can do.
Maxx on September 16, 2008 at 9:49 PM
And eroding with what demographics?
I’m up in Michigan tonight where McCain/Palin are holding a town hall tomorrow. The event was “sold out” in less than 3 hours. There simply isn’t evidence that the GOP base which McCain depsperately needed to get on his side seem to be willing to put up with him so long as Palin is on the ticket. When social conservatives and evangelicals start being less supportive of Palin, then there may be cause for concern but I don’t think it is time to panic.
Also, let’s remember that Palin goes on the airwaves with Sean Hannity’s interview tomorrow. That promises to be a far more fair interview than that attack Gibson disgraced himself with last week.
highhopes on September 16, 2008 at 9:50 PM
RINO:
Vague?? It was an interview with Charlie Gibson for ABC, if it took her more than 2 minutes to answer a question, they edited it. There was no way it could be anything but vague. And considering the fact that most Americans had been told she was a backwards hilly billy guntoting Jesus freak who could not stop popping out babies, most people were no doubt impressed with the woman.
She is a Governor, which is something that can not be said for the commenters right here I would venture to guess.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Oblamey was on a bubble not long ago, looking like he would walk off with the election. Palin’s bubble has burst and she is coming back down to earth, and bringing McCain with her( since she took him up as well.)
Close elections are always roller coaster-y. That’s what makes them exciting. Predictions based on fact, on fiction, on hope or on pessimissm don’t mean a thing. We simply won’t know till early on Nov. 5.
trailboss on September 16, 2008 at 10:03 PM
then there is also this:
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/09/mccain_takes_le_1.html
CC
CapedConservative on September 16, 2008 at 10:13 PM
We’ll see.
In the meantime, checkout this article from the Anchorage Daily News
and
this one from Palin’s convention speech writer.
Btw, I am not an Obama fan…
Shelby on September 16, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Sorry, I only scanned the comments and I didn’t catch that.
Maxx on September 16, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Okay, fair enough to assume that this isn’t a blog for governors. What in the hell does that have to do with anything?
highhopes on September 16, 2008 at 10:33 PM
petunia – I believe this to be very true. McCain has a history of lying as you mentioned and as mentioned in the excerpt below from The Minnesota Daily:
This has become the central theme of John McCain’s run for president: willing to say anything to get elected, regardless of whether it’s the least bit true.
McCain has a history of lying in this campaign. Way back in January, when he was still running against Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination, none other than Rush Limbaugh put McCain on blast for lying about Romney’s position on Iraq war timetables. McCain said Romney supported a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq; Romney advocated no such thing. That didn’t matter to McCain, of course. It was a chance to get a shot in at Romney, and whether it was true clearly didn’t matter.”
http://www.mndaily.com/2008/09/15/opinion-mccain%E2%80%99s-lying-habit
Shelby on September 16, 2008 at 11:14 PM
Sorry. Don’t care.
Jim Treacher on September 16, 2008 at 11:31 PM
I will say, in defense of the people who prepped her, that having watched some of the later sections of the interview again, it looks like she is better than I gave her credit for. Maybe after the first day she realized she had to change her style.
In fact, the contrast between the two interviews makes me confident. If she (or her advisors) perceived they had a problem and changed their approach that fast, maybe there is more hope than I thought. On the other hand, it might be that the later parts of the interview are more substantive just because she is naturally better prepared to discuss domestic policy.
We’ll see how she does at the debate with Biden. Based on watching these later portions, I am cautiously optimistic, but still a bit nervous.
RINO in Name Only on September 17, 2008 at 12:39 AM
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