Hotline poll: Palin’s favorables declining
posted at 5:05 pm on September 16, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The numbers aren’t as dire as in the, ahem, Daily Kos tracking poll favored by Andrew Sullivan, but there does seem to be some erosion going on:
The poll has Obama up four over McCain so it’s a bit of an outlier, but keep an eye out for her favorables in major polls out tomorrow or on Thursday for comparison. It’s worrisome how quickly the trend has moved: As of Saturday, after both nights of the Gibson interviewed had aired, she was still +22, higher than any of the other three candidates. Three days later she’s +11, lower than both Democrats. The Gibson interviews finished Friday; if they’re the catalyst, I’m not sure why we’d be seeing such delayed movement. There must have been something over the weekend that nudged people. Was it the NYT and WaPo hit pieces? The fire she took on the Sunday morning talk shows? The, gulp, SNL skit? McCain’s favorables have also eroded, so maybe all the media whining about his ads has penetrated and Palin’s simply absorbed some collateral damage. Or maybe not: “What’s more, 35% of RVs now say Palin is ‘very unprepared’ to serve as POTUS — up from 28% who said so in the sample completed immediately after the GOP convo (fielded 9/5-7).” Could be that her leveling off is dragging him down, not vice versa.
Exit question: Big rebound coming from tomorrow night’s softball game with Hannity, right?
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Allah breathes a sigh of relief.
fogw on September 16, 2008 at 5:07 PM
To quote the late, great Bones McCoy:
POPPYCOCK !!
Always Right on September 16, 2008 at 5:08 PM
It was bound to happen, she is hate her or love her. Anyways she did what she needed to do, now all that is left is kicking Biden in the mouth during the debates.
Cardiganfox on September 16, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Eh, no questions about Biden.
Bishop on September 16, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Meh, the glitter was bound to wear off. She’s still more favorable than Biden. I can’t imagine how a Democrat who takes the MSM seriously couldn’t hate her guts by now, so I guess we’re lucky she’s not doing worse. Another question: What about the independents??
jimmy the notable on September 16, 2008 at 5:09 PM
the power of the media on display.
painting McCain and Palin as liars on “Bridge to Nowhere”, obama’s Child Sex Ed stuff and the other media hysteria is having some toll on her.
jp on September 16, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Not with me they ain’t.
Again…when they start contacting me or folks I know for these polls, I’ll start taking them seriously…
Well, maybe not.
I don’t give a rat’s a$$ what the polls say. She’s got my vote. And McVain does too. :)
tickleddragon on September 16, 2008 at 5:10 PM
There must have been something over the weekend that nudged people.
Maybe the republicans were too busy watching/attending “crude” and “barbaric” High School, College, or NFL football games to answer a phone poll………….
battleoflepanto1571 on September 16, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Shrugs.. who knows Allah.
Allah… we need to get you off the polls man.
upinak on September 16, 2008 at 5:11 PM
I read that the Hannity softball was postponed until later this week. Please check and update if needed.
tdavisjr on September 16, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Of course you’re certainly right about this being a huge outlier. How in the world does any polling source give Obama an unfavorable of 37?
jimmy the notable on September 16, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Just for reference the partisan makeup of the poll sample was 41% Democrat; 36% Republican; 19% Independent.
CP on September 16, 2008 at 5:11 PM
She hasn’t been as visible.
Gibson (ABC) did to a hatchet job.
What do you expect?
The handlers DO need to let her loose. Drop Carly and push Palin out of the nest. She’s her best advocate.
Editor on September 16, 2008 at 5:11 PM
It’s no wonder as the press has been beating her brains in since day one!
woodman on September 16, 2008 at 5:12 PM
I’m hoping that most of the decline is from leftist Democrats that wouldn’t have voted for her in any case. Still not good, though.
Hannity won’t help because undecideds don’t watch Fox News in large numbers, plus everyone will know it’s a farce.
The Dean on September 16, 2008 at 5:12 PM
I’m up for it! And let’s re-run The First Dude with Greta while we’re at it!
Mr_Magoo on September 16, 2008 at 5:12 PM
It’s only natural. They’ll go back up a little and settle.
That’s definitely it. This ticket became non-viable once she got on board.
Or it could be his return to ill immigration as an important topic, concern about his association with the gang of 10/20, and the general whininess of the last 7-10 days of his campaign.
Spirit of 1776 on September 16, 2008 at 5:12 PM
Check also the part on the hotline poll about congress
It shows in Battleground poll
Its not an anti Palin trend its an anti Incumbent trend
William Amos on September 16, 2008 at 5:12 PM
Never mind, I just had a look at RCP and 37 is actually pretty high for Obama.
jimmy the notable on September 16, 2008 at 5:13 PM
that does seem awfully low, of course the media has a 90% approval or Obama rating…
jp on September 16, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Says one thing, too many sheeple in America
kirkill on September 16, 2008 at 5:14 PM
This is really good. It lowers expectations for the VP debate. The gibson interview hurt no question about that. the SNL skit and the hit pieces also hurt. add into it the last couple of days as seen Wall Street implode and no coverage of Palin much to change the opionion of the interview,snl, and the hit pieces and I’m surprised she is holding up as well as she is. Hannity interview should help her. He will concentrate on her personal traits. Will give her a change to rebut some of the smears etc. But it is the debate where she can overcome all of this negative press. The Katie Couric interview will help also. IMO
unseen on September 16, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Meanwhile Rasmussen puts NY out of McCains Reach
The race for New York is the closest it’s been in six months, but Barack Obama still leads John McCain by 13 points, 55% to 42%, in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
William Amos on September 16, 2008 at 5:14 PM
The Daily Kos tracking poll under samples republicans. Kos says that this is on purpose because he believes that most other polls are over sampling. So it is no surprise that McCain’s and Palin’s numbers are declining. We shall see if Kos is correct.
johnt on September 16, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Or it could be that this is a Dem year and having an R by her name sinks Palin’s numbers?
Illinidiva on September 16, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Wasn’t down the only way they ha
kc8ukw on September 16, 2008 at 5:15 PM
It’s not really popularity eroding, it’s more undecideds (i.e. “dumb people who don’t pay attention to stuff”) deciding to not like her. People who don’t visit blogs, watch news shows, or generally put any thought into their future, never heard of her until they heard SNL make fun of her or some Obamaton compare her to Hitler. Then it’s “Oh, I guess she’s bad. I disapprove of her”.
playblu on September 16, 2008 at 5:16 PM
Wasn’t down the only way they had to go? Sheesh.
kc8ukw on September 16, 2008 at 5:16 PM
it is bound to happen, can’t be a steady climb every week. She left the scene for about 5 days, now she is back.
She’s baaaaaackkkkk!!!
right2bright on September 16, 2008 at 5:16 PM
Hey I for one think it’s awesome the press still has such power, and thank God they can never be quite bothered enough to really vet the democrats with the same fury or intensity. There were terror strikes in two nations that got less airplay than Sarah Palin having a tanning bed. Priorities being what they are I am just pleased she is not polling below “Scranton”….
oh and f*** you MSM.
sven10077 on September 16, 2008 at 5:19 PM
McCain’s policies do not fit well with Palin… they need some populistic sexying up . Palin is going to die a death of 1000 paper cuts because Team McCain is just terrible… if they think they’re going to be able to win this on biography(Rick Davis farking moron) then they should tell all the donors just just save their moneys…
McCain is getting hammered in the polls when it comes to dealing with health care… he needs to fix that… email me… yarrrr@mail.com
ninjapirate on September 16, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Hey everybody, have you checked out the recent transcipt on troopergate? Palin is coming out not only clean, but Monegan was insubordinate.
http://palinforvp.blogspot.com/
Sapwolf on September 16, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Nice try, AllahP: That poll is sh+t, and you know it.
If you had any shame, you’d be ashamed of yourself………
Janos Hunyadi on September 16, 2008 at 5:20 PM
OK Allah you win. She was a horrible pick. We cant win with her on the ticket. It’s over. I guess that’s what you are dying to hear? Just keep searching for headlines and polls to vindicate your feelings. You can’t miss
titus_pullo on September 16, 2008 at 5:21 PM
The only poll I am interested in will be November 5th.
L
letget on September 16, 2008 at 5:22 PM
McCain needs to become the headliner for the campaign again. Palin needs to start speaking more off-the-cuff and doing more media interviews. She needs to go off-script, immediately.
indythinker on September 16, 2008 at 5:22 PM
overheard guy at work today:
“That lady, running for VP, turns out she lied about the Bridge to Nowhere thing and actually did support it…”
this is the type of message that gets thru to the average Joe Blow out there
jp on September 16, 2008 at 5:22 PM
Palin’s positives of course have to settle at some point. Her pick as veep is exciting the base, distracting Obama, and still bringing in some women and a whole lotta money.
It is close and I think the debates will have an impact.
The Lehman Bros. thing may hit McCain due to him being a Repub. on paper, but he will focus on being a leader and attacking Wall Street and Washington.
Sapwolf on September 16, 2008 at 5:22 PM
It’s effectively all tied up again:
Gallup Tracking 09/13 – 09/15 2800 RV 47 46 McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/13 – 09/15 909 RV 42 46 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 09/13 – 09/15 3000 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Newsweek 09/10 – 09/11 1038 RV 46 46 Tie
jim m on September 16, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Ha… that’s what she wants you to think. Don’t swim too close.
Maxx on September 16, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Not worried. Wait until the debates.
Game over for Obama.
I have faith in the American people that we are way too damn smart to elect socialist, arrogant dickheads to be our next Pres. and VP.
Winebabe on September 16, 2008 at 5:23 PM
All those Christian Conservatives warning me about her in my comments were right!
frankj on September 16, 2008 at 5:23 PM
first debate is huge, and on Foreign Policy. McCain should shine here. worried about the Economic debate coming up down road, closer to election
jp on September 16, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Polls… nothing but crap and a tool for people who sit on their butt all day. Sarah will do just fine.
MNDavenotPC on September 16, 2008 at 5:25 PM
Not hardly!!!!!!!
grapeknutz on September 16, 2008 at 5:25 PM
It was the gulp SNL skit and the gulp ignoramity of the American people who probably never even saw Sarah speak anywhere (or quickly changed the channel to their favoirte Reality TV epiode) and got their first exposure to her from Tina Fey (whom many undoubtedly thought was actually Sarah).
ugh
max1 on September 16, 2008 at 5:25 PM
What we are seeing is a wave of voter uneasiness hiting everyone. I suspect every politicans favoribles will take a hit due to this recient crisis.
William Amos on September 16, 2008 at 5:25 PM
But, Palin’s not from Illinois so she always has that going for her.
Blake on September 16, 2008 at 5:26 PM
Because most people don’t see it live and form an immediate opinion. They hear comments from the friends, etc. and form an opinion based on the crowd around them.
pedestrian on September 16, 2008 at 5:26 PM
The SNL effect. She’ll do fine once she sinks her teeth into Biden on the debate stage.
Fletch54 on September 16, 2008 at 5:28 PM
Yeah, the media’s worth 15% for the libs.
Iblis on September 16, 2008 at 5:29 PM
Either Rush or someone years ago said polling on the weekend was unreliable because more Dems are at home or answer the phone while Republicans are at the kid’s soccer games, out working in the yard, and tend to not answer the phones on the weekend.
I am not buying this. Other polls are not showing this and they are turning people away wherever she is speaking. This does not add up, but I do think Palinmania could come to a screetching halt if she does not do well in the debate.
freeus on September 16, 2008 at 5:32 PM
For arguments sake, let’s all assume McCain actually makes it a couple of years before he is “unable to serve as President for some reason”. Let’s compare someone with 2 years experience as Governor, 2 terms as Mayor and 2 terms as City Council plus 2 years as a Vice President vs. a community organizer, State Legislator and Senator.
I think Palin wins the experience argument.
Exit question: How much VP experience puts her over the top vs. Obambi? What if McCain craps out after 6 months, 9 months, 1 year?
sleepy-beans on September 16, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Given the storm of abuse the media has unleashed on her I’m surprised that anyone likes her.
flenser on September 16, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Unsurprising, given the unrelenting mud-slinging by the objective, impartial, totally fair media.
Paul_in_NJ on September 16, 2008 at 5:33 PM
If the RNC runs each congressional candidate against nancy Peloser, they win, big time. Run them against the banks and everything else they can with her attached. It happened on her watch as SotH. I say slam Pelosi, ignore Palin, and have John start talking about how running business OUT of America will only kill the middle class.
Start talking about class warfare for pete’s sake man. have some balls.
JP1986UM on September 16, 2008 at 5:34 PM
you kidding me? she got freaking buttslammed by the MSM for 2 weeks and thats all she dropped?, LMAO..
stlpatriot on September 16, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Yeah right.
The denocrats are applying their Bush Doctrine to her.
“stay in tune with your cohorts in the media and bash constantly about nothing.”
They have made headlines out of nothing burgers.
Since when did we go back to the politics of personal destruction? Answer I guess it really got started with Algores defeat in 2000.
They will never rest till they get back to their glory days of the early 60’s
Amazed on September 16, 2008 at 5:37 PM
what a waste …
redrock on September 16, 2008 at 5:37 PM
My 2 cents:
1. Natural anticipated “settling”
2. The media’s 24/7 war on Palin
3. Blowback from both camps getting off message. Lipstick-gate didn’t do anyone any favors. The McCain camp poorly played a weak hand on that one.
Hannity may help a bit, if he’s tough on her and it’s not a complete softball game. If Palin bitch-slaps Couric, it will help a lot.
More important, as has been said, get on a distinct, detailed message and hammer Obama with it. The MSM is pitching Obama’s 19 month old, canned economy speech as the second coming again. It’s not and I think people are getting wise to it.
If McCain comes out with strong, detailed points on the message he’s pitching, he can steal this issue back, especially with Palin’s help. She’s been doing some good stumping on this and she’s credible.
Damiano on September 16, 2008 at 5:38 PM
upinak,
What is with the Palin is “attacking” the Eskimo’s bit going on?
http://turtletalk.wordpress.com/2008/09/08/palin-on-tribes/
It looks like another smear campaign/greivance ploy; as this “list” is making its way around certain sites and appeared just recently. I was curious what your take was on the actual issues. They appear to be old cases still tied up in the courts.
The source links at the above link are a dead end (shocker).
Thanks.
DWB on September 16, 2008 at 5:38 PM
Well I am already voting the Messiah/Plugs ticket since she has her own tanning bed, so this only solidifies my choice.
/Drywall
carbon_footprint on September 16, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Allah, you’re kind of like our own little Pooh’s friend, Eeyore, aren’t you?
There, there, little buddy. Things aren’t that bad.
tickleddragon on September 16, 2008 at 5:40 PM
ROFL… LOVE it!
tickleddragon on September 16, 2008 at 5:40 PM
lets get rid of the Peggy Hill looking pic on the outside, she was Pregnant then and bloated from it. much better pics can be used
jp on September 16, 2008 at 5:40 PM
The only poll I’m really interested in is the one on election day. It’s nice to see our side up when it suits the poll gods to do so but for the most part I don’t worry about them.
If I did give credence to the polls I would attribute their decline to be caused by the “newness” of Palin losing appeal as people get to know her.
Guardian on September 16, 2008 at 5:41 PM
its the ads…every major outlet…even Fox News has hit McCain on the content of his ads.
when karl rove and megan kelly say you’ve gone too far…youve gone so damn far you should be ashamed
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 5:41 PM
If there is a negative article, comment or poll for McCain and especially Palin, leave it to AP to find it.
Not saying Palin and McCain are doing great, just saying that seems to be AP’s focus while others seem to look for positive and negative.
Just an observation…
kerrhome on September 16, 2008 at 5:41 PM
No.
All is doom.
Stephen M on September 16, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Sleepy,
No worry. She picks Fred Thompson or Mitt for veep. Calm down.
Sapwolf on September 16, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Dear AP
Your strategy worked! Did the ticket to Babs gethering arrive on time? See you tonight.
Sincerely,
Charlie G. & Keith O
Fuquay Steve on September 16, 2008 at 5:44 PM
Yep. Rove would have left that to the 527s
lodge on September 16, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Please oh please McCain mention Barbara Streidand’s fundraiser while cruising in Ohio with Palin.
Sapwolf on September 16, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Maybe this “Softball Interview” can even out the 13,768 “Softball Interviews” given to Democrat Pols on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC over the past 18 Months.
AYNBLAND on September 16, 2008 at 5:49 PM
I was worried there for a sec, AP. It looked like that dark cloud over your head was lightening up a bit… ;)
Jim Treacher on September 16, 2008 at 5:49 PM
Who here thinks her interview with Hannity tonight will actually help her? He’s going to ask 3rd grade level questions and let her rattle on about her life etc. etc.
Is that what the American people want to see?
I honestly think he’s going to do a disservice to her by not asking questions that allow her to expound on her policies. I’m sure he’ll get a lot of nice sound-bites for his radio show though. That he’ll play over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.
Palin-feevah seems to have been cured by a healthy dose of reality.
an_abstraction on September 16, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Her favorables were so high they were bound to come down, so I wouldn’t be pessimistic about this.
AP, on the other hand… :)
irishspy on September 16, 2008 at 5:51 PM
yea he would have. then again what does that say about the campaign he’s running? if we know the content is too sleazy for the candidate himself and should be running on 527 ads that the candidate can later disavow…doesn’t that make schmidt a slimebucket?
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Whoever prepped her for that interview should be shot. Yes, Gibson was a condescending ass. So what? Did they not expect that? Why wasn’t she prepared? That is no excuse for her very awkward performance.
The next person who coaches her should not try to cram 18 million talking points into her mouth in some insane attempt to “control the message”. Obviously she needs to learn as much about foreign and economic policy as she can in the coming days and weeks, and needs to really think about some of these issues so she can talk about them a bit more naturally. She needs to have some specific examples that she can refer to when she talks about foreign and economic policy so she doen’t sound like she’s faking it. Not the vague platitudes that were obviously crammed into her mouth by the people who coached her, who should be executed for criminal incompetence.
The problem is, now that a meme has started that she is unprepared, she needs to really give an impressive interview or three before people will discard that idea.
Most of all, she really needs to redeem herself in debate with Biden. They should probably take a break from campaign appearences if necessary, so that she can practice.
Oh, and did I mention that the imbeciles who helped her prepare for the Gibson interview should be euthanized?
RINO in Name Only on September 16, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Smoke & mirrors.
B*llshit & PeppermintIncense & Peppermint…. pay close attention Nov 5 – 50 of 50.CC
CapedConservative on September 16, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Well, Allah will be happy to hear this one: Sarah is a witch now.
Or a witch hunter, or maybe she’s responsible for the death of a woman that caused too many car accidents, or maybe she’s the
product of some kind of political voodoo.
Just read the article, maybe it will make sense to you.
Polls tend to go up & down – I’ll be standing firm.
Dorvillian on September 16, 2008 at 5:52 PM
except he was right on the Child Sex Ed ad
jp on September 16, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Let’s remember that it is about the top of the ticket.
BTW when Palin wipes the floor with Plugs and he throws out his last life ring, the condescension card, she shoots up.
In the back of my mind, I know that America will not elect a terrorist loving, black liberation, marxist.
jukin on September 16, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Maybe people are just pissed that she killed Bigfoot…
It's Vintage, Duh on September 16, 2008 at 5:55 PM
mmmmmmmmm……I’ll be thinking about that tonight……
FiveWays on September 16, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Well, I think the Charlie Gibson hatchet job of editing was the punch to her gut, and SNL’s mocking of the half-answer on Russia that aired was the follow-up to her jaw.
She’s tough. She can take it. If she’s hunkered down and comes out making Biden look like the clown he is, expect some different numbers. (I never think debates are fair to the Republicans, though, and isn’t Gwen Ifill going to moderate? Oy.)
capitalist piglet on September 16, 2008 at 5:57 PM
This is fallout from the victim ads from last week.
They need to get her out there back on the offensive.
Browncoatone on September 16, 2008 at 5:58 PM
Besides the brutally choppy, dishonest editing, and Gibson’s outright hostile demeanor and gotcha questions, you mean.
Jim Treacher on September 16, 2008 at 5:58 PM
except theres enough ambiguity about who supported what amendments and with what language that anyone could safely say that mccain was toeing the line with that one. regardless of whether he was right or wrong…he was toeing the line in a way that even karl rove wouldnt.
and karl rove was the guy who insinuated mccain had black children.
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 6:00 PM
blaming it solely on that is dishonest and you know it. she WAS unprepared, and no amount of editing or hostile demeanor could change it. you’re lying to yourself if you really think the only reason she looked bad was because ABC was malicious about it.
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 6:01 PM
an_abstraction:
Like you would know reality.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:02 PM
I don’t remember universal agreement that she looked “bad”.
capitalist piglet on September 16, 2008 at 6:02 PM
The full interview they aired later wasn’t choppy at all. And he asked her legitimate questions that Americans would want to know the answers to.
Blame everyone/everything else but her inability to appear at least a little human.
an_abstraction on September 16, 2008 at 6:02 PM
…not “belly up”…it’s “Palin fatigue”….
…folks aren’t as much unfavorably disposed to Sarah as tired of hearing about her, and — to judge by me, anyway — are waiting to hear someone say something substantive.
Obama can lose on the issues…once someone begins asking him about the issues.
PointTo Ponder: Sarah doesn’t personify traditional values, etc. Don’t put that on her (shapely) shoulders. The appeal she has might just be that an actual, real citizen flew in under the radar. Look how the establishment (the media, academia, entrenched special interests and Hollywood) is reacting!
It’s OK for us to vote (so long as we vote the right way…we can even think once in a while (as long as it’s about American Idol or Paris Hilton or the latest pap out of Hollywood)…but we’re not to burgle our way into the halls of power…that is the preserve of the Vanguard of the Proletariat!
How many people today are running on major party tickets who got their starts as the “protege” of a political faction…and how many started out on the PTA?
…point to ponder….
Puritan1648 on September 16, 2008 at 6:04 PM
It is one poll. A friend of mine told me that someone she works with was telling all the folks at the job that Palin speaks in tongues and burns books and all kinds of crap. I guess those lies are what pass for reality to an abstraction here.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Palin is a woman who handles whatever is thrown at her with grace. No tears, no whining. Examples: issues with children, husband’s broken arm in last race, Republican corruption in Alaska, trooper threats to her family, etc. I’m sure she would do just fine.
Presidents never work alone, they have personal advisors, the Cabinet, etc. She’ll take the information she’s given, apply experience and common sense, then make a decision.
Common Sense on September 16, 2008 at 6:05 PM
if you thought insisting that georgia was invaded unprovoked looked GOOD…then you my friend have serious issues.
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 6:05 PM
But the truth is it is one poll, and it was Sarah all the time for awhile there. I think people have just kind of come down from the high. But that is not a bad thing.
I don’t think most people will watch the Hannity interview. Most people did not watch Gibson. Most people did not read NYT or WaPo. Most people do not watch SNL either. We forget a lot of people do not really get into all this like we do.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:07 PM
ernesto:
That is just what most people believed.
Terrye on September 16, 2008 at 6:08 PM
are you kidding?!?!?!?!?
banning reading material
paying ANY lip service to creationists
no abortion even in case of rape or incest
sounds like “traditional” values to me (in the sense that traditional values mean the insane cultural mores put forth by the far right wing)
ernesto on September 16, 2008 at 6:09 PM
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