Is New York in play? Update: Obama loses 13 points since June

posted at 8:30 am on September 15, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

According to the New York Post, internal polling by both Democrats and Republicans show Barack Obama beginning to fade in New York.  Once considered an unassailable bastion for Democrats, the Empire State has narrowed to a potential catastrophe for them, all the way down the ticket.  Polls out today will show a significant gain for John McCain, and a nightmare for Obama:

BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state – where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.

The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties – and produced deep worries among Democrats. …

The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.

The last Siena poll had Obama only up by eight in August.  Apparently, that margin has narrowed even further, a shocking result for a Northeastern state considered a lock for Democrats.  The McCain campaign may start spending money in New York if the results get further confirmed by public polls due out today and later this week.

What happened?  The Post credits the selection of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate, but the snub of their Senator by Obama for the other position may have created a backlash among New Yorkers.  The tax problems of Charlie Rangel may have contributed to the falling fortunes of Democrats, and the Post forgets that this is the first election since Eliot Spitzer’s resignation over his affairs with high-priced hookers.  If the Republican brand suffered nationally, the Democratic brand isn’t doing well in New York now, and the reform rhetoric of Obama isn’t convincing voters there.

If Obama loses his grip on New York, he can’t possibly win the election.  If he has to sink a large amount of money in New York, he’ll have to take it from his efforts in battleground states, and he’ll have to cut his face time in places like Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and Minnesota. That’s a recipe for defeat, both financially and electorally.

Just a week ago, his campaign shrugged off the national polls by asserting that the state polls were what counted.  As this shows, the national polls provide a pretty good barometer about what one can expect in the states.  If New York becomes a toss-up, Obama can kiss his White House aspirations good-bye.

Update: The Siena poll of likely voters in New York shows just how bad Obama has fared.  He lost 13 points off his lead since clinching the nomination, and now barely leads outside the margin of error — and can’t get to a majority:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today.  Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.  On a series of  six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four.  Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.  “The conventions are over.  The running mates are set.  And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

McCain has made significant gains in New York largely on national security and personal attributes.  He wins on terrorism, 54-33, and edges Obama in ensuring American strength, 47-41.  McCain obliterates him on personal qualities, especially patriotism (59-21), experience (73-18), and perhaps most unsettling for Team O, integrity (43-38).

Update: Obama lost 13 points on an 18-point lead, not 18 points. My apologies for the confusion.


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it is a long shot, but what the hey?

She should campaign in rural upstate while McCain should go play MAVERICK!* in the lion’s den in the city for a day or two….

this sort of polling has to be what is driving Barry nuts.

sven10077 on September 15, 2008 at 8:36 AM

In NY we had George Pataki and Rudolph Giuliani as Governor and Mayor respectively. I give credit to these men for changing NY for the better. And they are republicans!

Now we have Spitzer, Charlie Rangel, Schumer (Calling out a bank and bankrupting it), David Paterson (an idiot), and other liberals. They brought the state into a recession. Democrats ruin everything. Of course there will be a negative image of the party.

jencab on September 15, 2008 at 8:36 AM

Oh please, please, please, please be a toss-up. It’s going to be a crappy day on Wall Street and Obama is trying to blame the failure of Lehman and the sale of Merrill on Bush’s policies. Playing that blame game will not fare well with wall street types. Could further push obama down in the polls. We can only hope.

pullingmyhairout on September 15, 2008 at 8:37 AM

No, as someone who lives in NYC, unfortunately NY is no more in play than Calif or Mass.

Total liberal goofdom here in the city and not enough upstate conservatives to compensate.

I wish it were otherwise, but Obama will take NY easily and if the margin is 15 instead of 20 or 12 instead of 15, what does that matter?

Always Right on September 15, 2008 at 8:38 AM

as this article proves, there are two types of people in this world:

Meat-eaters…

and

Leaf-eaters…

Republicans are “meat-eaters”; hence, BIG brains!

Anit-American/Pro-Jihadi Leftist Marxist-Muslims such as Barack HUSSEIN Obama (PBUH) are definitely “leaf-eaters” (i.e. “Vegans”; hence their scientifically proven shrunken brains!

It’s a scientific fact as we now know, and it explains a lot, doesn’t it?

Dale in Atlanta on September 15, 2008 at 8:38 AM

We woke up to a potential game changer folks.

Wall Street awakes to 2 storied firms falling

“It’s clear we’re one step away from a financial meltdown,” said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of the consulting firm RGE Monitor.

TheBigOldDog on September 15, 2008 at 8:39 AM

they must all be racists in NY. couldn’t be anything else like $4.00/gal gas and all the dems in NY saying that’s a good thing. Or the stock market falling 4,000pts over the last year, or all the banking jobs lost in NYC, or any of that stuff.

unseen on September 15, 2008 at 8:40 AM

If New York becomes a toss-up, Obama can kiss his White House aspirations good-bye.

Are we being a bit optimistic here? Short of Obama going out on an axe-murder spree, I don’t see him not carrying New York.

flipflop on September 15, 2008 at 8:40 AM

Hard to say, hard to say, though I’m not getting my hopes up.

I have to wonder if the new earmarking revelations about Palin are going to hurt the campaign or if it won’t matter; mix it all together and my head is twirling today.

Bishop on September 15, 2008 at 8:40 AM

Winning New York is too big a nail in Obama’s coffin for me to give it much hope – I don’t think he will go down very easy at all.

But here’s to hoping!

Grafted on September 15, 2008 at 8:40 AM

As long as Obama and gang keep using lies and innuendos to trash Sarah, any person male or female should be outraged at the utter disregard for any semblance of the truth. The fact that community organizers like ACORN, that Obama brags about being one, will be convicted of voter registration fraud in multiple states. Dark clouds ahead.

volsense on September 15, 2008 at 8:40 AM

Biden was in MA last week, too.

My McCain/Palin yard sign went up Friday and it’s still there, heh.

I saw 4 other McCain signs and 1 Obama sign driving around this weekend in a town that went 62% for Kerry.

I know it’s probably too much to hope for, but by this time in 2004 I saw a lot more Kerry/Edwards stickers on cars and signs on lawns. I’m sure Obama has all the eastern MA union stooges, college kids, state employed hacks and Deval Patrick moonbats locked up, but it’s nice too see that the small towns in the western part of the state may be coming around some.

reaganaut on September 15, 2008 at 8:41 AM

She should campaign in rural upstate while McCain should go play MAVERICK!* in the lion’s den in the city for a day or two….

Palin would play VERY well north of Westchester County.

Leonidas Hoplite on September 15, 2008 at 8:41 AM

New Yorkers experienced 09/11 firsthand.
Dem or Rep, they’re sure to look for a solid leader.

bridgetown on September 15, 2008 at 8:42 AM

New York has a large percentage of radicalism running its government, and running in its streets. At some point even southern NY State has got to see the light.

Hening on September 15, 2008 at 8:42 AM

reaganaut on September 15, 2008 at 8:41 AM

MA residents are just racists

unseen on September 15, 2008 at 8:42 AM

The Post credits S.Palin…….it’s never the message Palin brings to the table, nor is it ever the message that Liberals put on the table…..

sbark on September 15, 2008 at 8:42 AM

Yea, I’d like to see those polls before we get too excited. Even if McCain is within 5 it still seems like it’d be a waste of money to dump resources into New York. Stick to Penn, OH, MI, CO, NM… leave California and NY alone unless you’re really close in the polls.

BadgerHawk on September 15, 2008 at 8:42 AM

Stick a fork in ‘em, he’s done.

m064404 on September 15, 2008 at 8:44 AM

Obama will take NY easily and if the margin is 15 instead of 20 or 12 instead of 15, what does that matter?

Always Right

AR, If it was an 8% margin previously and has narrowed according to state polls then as pointed out above, Obama will have to take money from elsewhere to ensure he doesn’t loose NY. If the Polls are narrow it’s a win for McCain which ever way you look at it.

Aussie-T on September 15, 2008 at 8:45 AM

This is anectodal, but I live in NY and I haven’t met anyone yet who doesn’t like the idea of Sarah Palin, including my longtime democrat colleagues in the office AND the libertarian right wingers in the next cubicles. There’s one thing they agree on, Sarah Palin (and McCain by extension) is a MAVERICK.

rightallthetime on September 15, 2008 at 8:45 AM

No, as someone who lives in NYC, unfortunately NY is no more in play than Calif or Mass.

Total liberal goofdom here in the city and not enough upstate conservatives to compensate.

I wish it were otherwise, but Obama will take NY easily and if the margin is 15 instead of 20 or 12 instead of 15, what does that matter?

Always Right on September 15, 2008 at 8:38 AM

I’m at the other end of the state, near Niagara Falls. NY is safely in the Obama column. The only growth industry out here is working for the government. This is big time Hillary Democrat country, i.e. working class, union member. It’s not so much that people here like Hillary, they’re as disillusioned with her as anyone, but for most, Republican equals undeserving, silver spoon having rich folks, and resentment ensues. I have seen zero, not one, McCain stickers or signs, yet I’ve seen a multitude of Obama stuff.

Keep hope alive, maybe things will, uh, change, but let’s not make any wagers.

trubble on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Clearly this is a racist poll. This is all part of The Obamassiah’s plan to lose all 57 states.

Seriously, I doubt that Barack is going to lose NY, he’ll easilly win Albany and the city, but just the idea that New York is possibly in play is real trouble for The One. And maybe one day New York will get its act together, get a decent government in and I may even think about returning.

rbj on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

We woke up to a potential game changer folks.

Wall Street awakes to 2 storied firms falling

“It’s clear we’re one step away from a financial meltdown,” said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of the consulting firm RGE Monitor.

TheBigOldDog on September 15, 2008 at 8:39 AM

That’s a bad game changer if it turns out to be true. Bad economic news = Messiah election

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

trubble on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Put your signs out!
:)

bridgetown on September 15, 2008 at 8:49 AM

No, New York is not in play.
McCain wasting money in New York would be as dumb as Obama wasting money in Georgia.

I mean, really now.

e-pirate on September 15, 2008 at 8:49 AM

No, as someone who lives in NYC, unfortunately NY is no more in play than Calif or Mass.

Total liberal goofdom here in the city and not enough upstate conservatives to compensate.

I wish it were otherwise, but Obama will take NY easily and if the margin is 15 instead of 20 or 12 instead of 15, what does that matter?

Always Right on September 15, 2008 at 8:38 AM

As a former New Yorker, I’d mostly agree… but I think that folks outside the City and LI could be moved. Westchester folks like to keep their money and the state gets more purple the further north you go.

I never though I would see NJ down to a 3-6 point gap this years, but alas, it is so. If NY starts getting close, it may not flip, but it’s a hell of an indicator for all the more reasonably thinking states.

Damiano on September 15, 2008 at 8:50 AM

I was wondering about the internal polling.

This Friday I heard the McCain campaign will be opening an office(s) in NY state this week.

Their downstate office will be on suburban Long Island.

peterargus on September 15, 2008 at 8:51 AM

BWAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Put some lipstick on that Barry! Muhahahahahahah!

sabbott on September 15, 2008 at 8:51 AM

Yeah well, MO is supposed to be a toss up, and there’s not a chance Obama will even come close. I think there comes a point where people actually put their personal safety ahead of “wanting to vote for the cool black guy.”

anniekc on September 15, 2008 at 8:52 AM

I suspect Rhode Island may be in play too. Hillary won big here and I’m hearing a lot of love for Sarah Palin, along with a lot of concern about Obama. The most recent polls have Obama way out in front, but there’s nothing more recent than 8/20. I’m interested to see what new polling looks like in the bluest of blue states.

Eagleton? Dukakis?

Pablo on September 15, 2008 at 8:52 AM

I never though I would see NJ down to a 3-6 point gap this years, but alas, it is so. If NY starts getting close, it may not flip, but it’s a hell of an indicator for all the more reasonably thinking states. – Damiano on September 15, 2008 at 8:50 AM

I’m doing everything I can to flip NJ for Mac and Fox. If NJ falls from Bambi’s clutches, I’m pretty sure NY will follow, which means PA is a slam dunk. If that happens, the Messiah is toast.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 8:53 AM

Yo,Obama, McCain/Palin iceberg dead ahead,
should we change course,or Hope it moves!!a hem

canopfor on September 15, 2008 at 8:54 AM

trubble on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Put your signs out!
:)

bridgetown on September 15, 2008 at 8:49 AM

HAhaha, I live in an apartment about 50 yards from the projects. I suppose I could just deny it after I put it up, but I’m thinking it wouldn’t last 3 days. Same reason I don’t put stickers on my car, I don’t want to deal with the insurance claim.

My only outlet is arguing lefties into the ground at work or where ever they open their pieholes and spew their foolishness. I don’t bring the subject up, but let’s just say I’ve ended more than one conversation by asking, “What do you mean you haven’t read Al Qaeda’s declaration of war? You don’t even know what it says?”

trubble on September 15, 2008 at 8:55 AM

Well, this is LOL, even if it’s somewhat slightly a little bit close.

There was, and will again be some McCain supporters at the corner of Lexington and 86th St. 6pm on Wednesday. I will be there, and I encourage all sane NYC’ers to come out of the closet, and join me.

Maybe some McCane people can storm the Today Show line outside the studio?

A
nd for the really daring, there’s outside the 2/3 Station on the Upper West Side–LOL.

AskParisParamus=at=aol=dot=com

ParisParamus on September 15, 2008 at 8:55 AM

The McCain campaign may start spending money in New York if the results get further confirmed by public polls due out today and later this week.

Just the fact that they’re even TRYING to win NY could make all the difference. NYers think the world revolves around them and paying them some attention could put the state into the toss-up category. Same for California, make the O-man spend (waste) money in what should be a sure thing.

Tony737 on September 15, 2008 at 8:57 AM

Gee, also, lots of empty retail spaces here in Park Slope Brooklyn, but unfortunately, only 1-in-1000 are not dyed-in-the-wool Dems…. ;-(

ParisParamus on September 15, 2008 at 8:57 AM

I think Barry will get a boost with the WS crash though.

lodge on September 15, 2008 at 8:57 AM

IT’S A TRAP!

GulfCoastBamaFan on September 15, 2008 at 8:57 AM

I think Barry will get a boost with the WS crash though.

lodge on September 15, 2008 at 8:57 AM

Yup, because the economy has done so wonderfully since the donks took over the purse of the feds…

sven10077 on September 15, 2008 at 8:58 AM

That’s a bad game changer if it turns out to be true. Bad economic news = Messiah election

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Dunno about that. Fannie Mae, Countrywide, and energy tie directly to donks.

a capella on September 15, 2008 at 8:58 AM

That’s a bad game changer if it turns out to be true. Bad economic news = Messiah election

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Maybe not. Some other folks and I were yaking about this last night. Obama is playing this stupid. He’s already pulled out the Bush card… again… and people are starting to get calloused to it.

If McCain and Palin can come out strong and positive on this today (yeah… Lehman’s in the toilet and Merrill’s sold. Fine. The market will right itself… always does) it could put them in a powerful position. Recent polls show McCain starting to lead on economy. This is a matter of the Fed keeping their hands out of it and letting the market right itself. Meanwhile, if a positive leader comes out with a strong message and a plan for the interim, it could work miracles. Bank failing is one thing… blame the bankers. The fallout is in confidence and that is where Presidential leadership comes in.

Palin has the potential to knock something like this out of the park and be very credible. Time to take her leash off McCain and let her make a big speech on this one. Follow it up with something rousing from McCain and there’ll be a market rally by the end of the day.

Damiano on September 15, 2008 at 8:58 AM

I think Peloki’s boner shrinker of an idea of going on vacation while citizens struggle to budget money, as energy bills are not voted upon, has finally started to show in the polls. USA wants to drill among other programs and Pelosi turned her back. Pelosi “No Lipstick for You”

Wade on September 15, 2008 at 8:59 AM

hell, even if it means Barack has to spend more money there.. even better..

McCain might do good to stump there for a day or two..

if only to panic Barack and make him divert his war chest funds for a supposedly ‘safe’ state..

DaveC on September 15, 2008 at 8:59 AM

Are we being a bit optimistic here? Short of Obama going out on an axe-murder spree, I don’t see him not carrying New York.

flipflop on September 15, 2008 at 8:40 AM

Optimism. Must avoid it at all costs. So much better to assume we will lose, give up, wallow in our inevitable defeat…

/

Disturb the Universe on September 15, 2008 at 8:59 AM

People forget that New York was once a Republican state. Rudy is a Republican and he managed to become a popular mayor in NYC. I will have to see it to believe it, but it is not impossible that McCain might have a shot.

Terrye on September 15, 2008 at 9:01 AM

It might be worth a few $$$ to Maverick to throw some ads up on the much-cheaper Upstate TV markets like Albany, Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo, since if you look at a county-by-county electoral map from 2000 or 2004, Upstate is about as red as anyplace else in the dread flyover country (yes, Buffalo and Albany themselves are blue, but that even holds true for the big city counties in as red a state as Texas. It’s the suburbs you’re shooting for with your ad buys).

Keeping New York (and New Jersey) close means Obama would have to spend more money than planned in the Democratic-heavy areas around New York City, and you can’t get a more expensive ad buy than NYC media. While the odds are neither state is going Republican, if Mavericks’ team can make Obama’s group burn even more money than they already have there, it could make a little difference in some of the real swing states come the end of October and early November.

jon1979 on September 15, 2008 at 9:02 AM

Okay, HOLD IT, FOLKS! I was afraid of this. All this talk of all the Blue states suddenly coming into play is becoming a distraction. I’m not saying the polling is wrong or someone is deliberately laying out a deception, but we need to focus resources. There are three or four states (NV, CO, NM, and maybe NH [based on 2000]) where we know the GOP can win. If we go focusing resources on all these “possibly in play” states, it will deplete what is needed to win.

Let’s not make the Hussein “57-state strategy” mistake.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 9:02 AM

New Yorkers are not going to vote to turn this nation’s security over to a bunch of lightweights like the democrats. I bet when Reid entered into the Congressional Record that the U S had lost the war that it made New Yorkers winch.

volsense on September 15, 2008 at 9:03 AM

Disturb the Universe on September 15, 2008 at 8:59 AM

Inner Patton can contain himself no longer.

People, all this stuff you’ve heard about conservatives not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the election, is a lot of horse dung. Conservatives traditionally love to fight. All real Conservatives love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer.

Conservatives love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Conservatives play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why true Conservatives have never lost and will never lose a poltical war. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Conservatives.

I don’t want to read any comments saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let the Liberals do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We’re going to hold onto them by the nose and we’re going to kick them in the ass. We’re going to kick the hell out of them all the time and we’re gonna go through them like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you people will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandchildren on your knee and they ask you what did you did in the Election of 2008, you won’t have to say, “Well, I sniveled about defeat over at HotAir.com.”

Alright now, you sons-of-b!tches, you know how I feel. Oh, and I will be proud to lead you wonderful people into battle – anytime, anywhere.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:04 AM

Maybe not. Some other folks and I were yaking about this last night. Obama is playing this stupid. He’s already pulled out the Bush card… again… and people are starting to get calloused to it.

The economy is really all about perception as there’s really nothing that the government can do to help the economy (other than stimulus checks and rate cuts). However, if the bad economy and corrupt financial institutions dominate the last months of the election, this doesn’t help McCain-Palin @ all.

I’m sure that you and your Republican leaning friends might feel that the Messiah is overplaying his hands, but the public @ large isn’t as smart or in tune with politics and might feel completely differently.

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 9:04 AM

No, as someone who lives in NYC, unfortunately NY is no more in play than Calif or Mass.

Total liberal goofdom here in the city and not enough upstate conservatives to compensate.

I wish it were otherwise, but Obama will take NY easily and if the margin is 15 instead of 20 or 12 instead of 15, what does that matter?

Always Right on September 15, 2008 at 8:38 AM

I’m at the other end of the state, near Niagara Falls. NY is safely in the Obama column. The only growth industry out here is working for the government. This is big time Hillary Democrat country, i.e. working class, union member. It’s not so much that people here like Hillary, they’re as disillusioned with her as anyone, but for most, Republican equals undeserving, silver spoon having rich folks, and resentment ensues. I have seen zero, not one, McCain stickers or signs, yet I’ve seen a multitude of Obama stuff.

Keep hope alive, maybe things will, uh, change, but let’s not make any wagers.

trubble on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

I’m betting the report is nothing. Back to work.

But this is different:

We woke up to a potential game changer folks.

Wall Street awakes to 2 storied firms falling

“It’s clear we’re one step away from a financial meltdown,” said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of the consulting firm RGE Monitor.

TheBigOldDog on September 15, 2008 at 8:39 AM

The link didn’t work for me, btw.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 9:06 AM

I think Peloki’s boner shrinker of an idea of going on vacation while citizens struggle to budget money, as energy bills are not voted upon, has finally started to show in the polls. USA wants to drill among other programs and Pelosi turned her back. Pelosi “No Lipstick for You”

Wade on September 15, 2008 at 8:59 AM

Indeed…Bambi is on record saying 4 dollar a gallon fuel is a good thing, Nancy had to be dragged kicking and screaming to any increase of our energy production….

I think this may well be the nail if McCain is ruthless.

sven10077 on September 15, 2008 at 9:06 AM

I think Barry will get a boost with the WS crash though.

lodge on September 15, 2008 at 8:57 AM

It is probably so, but very unfortunate because the most voters do not know who is responsible for this mess.

Wade on September 15, 2008 at 9:06 AM

Alright now, you sons-of-b!tches, you know how I feel. Oh, and I will be proud to lead you wonderful people into battle – anytime, anywhere.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:04 AM

And let’s focus on where we have an actual chance.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

Being a NY’er, I’d like to think that NY could be in play. However, for it to happen, McCain and Palin would need to bring their campaign here and I seriously doubt they will, unless we see more movement to McCain in the more contested states. If that happens, we could make a game of it.

Now on the matter of other states, does anyone know why RCP wouldn’t include Insider Advantage polls in their roster of state polls but host the pdf for Insider’s poll of Iowa from Sept 10 showing the contest there as Obama 49% and McCain 46%? (501 registered voters, MOE 4.3%)

Dusty on September 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

The economy is really all about perception as there’s really nothing that the government can do to help the economy (other than stimulus checks and rate cuts). However, if the bad economy and corrupt financial institutions dominate the last months of the election, this doesn’t help McCain-Palin @ all.

I’m sure that you and your Republican leaning friends might feel that the Messiah is overplaying his hands, but the public @ large isn’t as smart or in tune with politics and might feel completely differently.

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 9:04 AM

Nancy”book tour Pelosi” and Barry “let them drive cake” O’bama…..

I think you may be wrong this election.

sven10077 on September 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

In an economy where there is an enormous credit crises the voters understand what raising taxes and in particular capital gains taxes will do. Also upstate New York you could take the counties there and drop them in Alabama and Mississippi and they would not miss a beat. Republicans don’t campaign there and they lose it is a self fulfilling prophecy.

Jdripper on September 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

Anyone seen Biden lately?

Neo on September 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

I’m doing everything I can to flip NJ for Mac and Fox. If NJ falls from Bambi’s clutches, I’m pretty sure NY will follow, which means PA is a slam dunk. If that happens, the Messiah is toast.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 8:53 AM

If you bring NJ along by itself, Barry is toast. PA is seriously in play, OH looks good and so does FL. If PA ditches him, he’s mostly done. NJ does it and he might as well move to Kenya with George.

Damiano on September 15, 2008 at 9:08 AM

Nancy”book tour Pelosi” and Barry “let them drive cake” O’bama…..

I think you may be wrong this election.

sven10077 on September 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

Most people don’t know who Nancy Pelosi is.

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 9:08 AM

Terrye on September 15, 2008 at 9:01 AM

Yep and the last good Governor was Republican

Wade on September 15, 2008 at 9:09 AM

And let’s focus on where we have an actual chance. -Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

Frederick the Great was fond of saying:

L’audace, l’audace…toujours l’audace.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:09 AM

Alright now, you sons-of-b!tches, you know how I feel. Oh, and I will be proud to lead you wonderful people into battle – anytime, anywhere.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:04 AM

Hang tough, and take no prisoners.

Disturb the Universe on September 15, 2008 at 9:09 AM

If you bring NJ along by itself, Barry is toast. PA is seriously in play, OH looks good and so does FL. If PA ditches him, he’s mostly done. NJ does it and he might as well move to Kenya with George. – Damiano on September 15, 2008 at 9:08 AM

I agree.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:10 AM

LOL = New York going for McCain/Palin?   Please don’t make me laugh!   Oh wait, you just did?   Thanks for the laugh, Ed.

martywd on September 15, 2008 at 9:10 AM

Disturb the Universe on September 15, 2008 at 9:09 AM

Advance. Always advance. And never, ever retreat.

I don’t like to pay for the same real estate twice.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:11 AM

That’s a bad game changer if it turns out to be true. Bad economic news = Messiah election

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Wrong! With Obama’s plans to tax businesses and their payrolls to redistribute the money to those who pay no taxes is a loosing proposition. In fact, this throws Obama’s complete economic plans into the garbage.

Rovin on September 15, 2008 at 9:12 AM

Most people don’t know who Nancy Pelosi is.

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 9:08 AM

a fine testament to US civics classes and our media….

they’ll learn right quick in the event of a black friday though….

sven10077 on September 15, 2008 at 9:12 AM

I would have to agree with many of the above: NY will not go Republican. It may be a close race there, but I think that — despite the polling data that Ed is citing — the Empire State will still vote Democratic in November.

Now, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Michigan… these are states to watch.

thePajamaPundit on September 15, 2008 at 9:12 AM

thePajamaPundit on September 15, 2008 at 9:12 AM

You may be right, but that should not deter McCain from making it a battlefield on which he can distract the Messiah and deplete precious resources and manpower. And if NY does miraculously flip to Mac and Fox, it’s icing on the cake.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:14 AM

No way!!!!!!!! I live in the most liberal of liberal bastions, the Village/SoHo and if that happens people go ape.

I on the other hand will celebrate, though quietly so as not to be lynched by my peace-loving non-violent multi-cultural neighbors.

McCain/Palin ’08 V I C T O R Y!!!

J.J. Sefton on September 15, 2008 at 9:15 AM

It doesn’t matter if these states are actually in play, if Obama has to spend extra resources to secure a victory in these blue states, it drains the efforts in the battleground states. So it makes sense to fight just enough to get them worried.

reaganaut on September 15, 2008 at 9:15 AM

The economy is really all about perception as there’s really nothing that the government can do to help the economy (other than stimulus checks and rate cuts).

No entirely so. If the Government steps aside, keeps their nose out of business, then free enterprise has a much better chance of working properly. Supply and Demand works when unfettered viz: government block of oil drilling.

Wade on September 15, 2008 at 9:16 AM

Is New York in Play?

As a New Yorker, I can definitively say….no.

crr6 on September 15, 2008 at 9:16 AM

The good news out of the Wall Street mess today is that taxpayers are not going to foot the bill either for the sale of Merrill or the fall of Lehman. This will not affect anyone on Main Street. I don’t think many small town voters re too concerned about a bunch of 30-year-old investment bankers losing their 7-figure jobs.

Having just come out of the mortgage business, I see these events as positive. The whole industry jumped the shark when the investment banks and brokerages started getting into it, especially Merrill. Lehman went whole hog into mortgages with no clue about how they work. They are paying the price now and nobody should feel sorry for them. These firms all got too greedy and together they killed the goose that laid those golden eggs. This has nothing to do with insufficient federal regulation or oversight, it has to do with plain old greed.

rockmom on September 15, 2008 at 9:17 AM

As a New Yorker, I can definitively say….no.

crr6 on September 15, 2008 at 9:16 AM

as if you’d say yes at any rate CCCP6

sven10077 on September 15, 2008 at 9:17 AM

Confronted with taking a side on a surge in Iraq, a surge that might turn the war around and bring victory to the U.S., Obama chose to frown upon a surge, stated it could not work, and in effect chose to lose the war.

Confronted with selecting a running mate, a running mate who could virtually assure him a landslide victory in the fall, Obama went with his ego rather than his brain, and chose a running mate of no political value, one who was not an asset but a liability, and one who will cost him the election.

Obama has a record of making dreadfully losing decisions. I don’t want a loser for president and it looks like New York and many other states have voters who have come to the same conclusion.

Changey Hopey lacks any kind of sound judgement. He’s a windbag. Period.

fogw on September 15, 2008 at 9:18 AM

Perhaps a short campaign stop in New York could prompt Obama to spend cash firming up his flank, but let’s get real here folks- New York is Blue.

A better ploy would be a short trip out to Washington State which is Blue but fading. Then get back to the real game in the battleground states.

Browncoatone on September 15, 2008 at 9:18 AM

As an Obama partisan hack New Yorker, I can definitively say….no.

FIFY

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:18 AM

New York is not in play. I recommend this topic be removed.

That’s a bad game changer if it turns out to be true. Bad economic news = Messiah election

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Maybe not. Some other folks and I were yaking about this last night. Obama is playing this stupid. He’s already pulled out the Bush card… again… and people are starting to get calloused to it.

If McCain and Palin can come out strong and positive on this today (yeah… Lehman’s in the toilet and Merrill’s sold. Fine. The market will right itself… always does) it could put them in a powerful position. Recent polls show McCain starting to lead on economy. This is a matter of the Fed keeping their hands out of it and letting the market right itself. Meanwhile, if a positive leader comes out with a strong message and a plan for the interim, it could work miracles. Bank failing is one thing… blame the bankers. The fallout is in confidence and that is where Presidential leadership comes in.

Palin has the potential to knock something like this out of the park and be very credible. Time to take her leash off McCain and let her make a big speech on this one. Follow it up with something rousing from McCain and there’ll be a market rally by the end of the day.

Damiano on September 15, 2008 at 8:58 AM

That approach won’t work. People have been pulled too far to the Left to accept that. That was Herbert Hoover’s approach in 1929 onward. Economically, it might make sense. Politically, it gave us 13 years of FDR (at least it wasn’t Carter).

The campaign needs to offer something. Sorry, that’s just politics. Give them a little so we can win and do what needs to be done. I hate even typing that, but it’s true.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 9:19 AM

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Elizabetty on September 15, 2008 at 9:19 AM

As a former Alabama resident, now a Upstate New York resident, located in Iraq… I’ll not be absentee voting for Obama.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on September 15, 2008 at 9:19 AM

Most people don’t know who Nancy Pelosi is.

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 9:08 AM

You really need to get out of your little bubble “sweetie” (Obama’s words). Nancy Pelosi is the single biggest reason this nation is not pursuing energy independence. Two years and the worst record Congress has had for generations. Two years and there’s still “cash in the freezers”.

Rovin on September 15, 2008 at 9:20 AM

I guess it is Obama who “doesn’t know what he’s up against.”

However, I’m with the others who say that NY is a long way from purple, much less red. However, if news like this can distract Obama and force him to spend resources campaigning there, then that’s all for the good. If the numbers are close, I think Giuliani and Pataki’s time would be well spent seeing if they could stir things up there.

Kafir on September 15, 2008 at 9:20 AM

rockmom on September 15, 2008 at 9:17 AM

I agree. The market will correct itself as it usually does.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:20 AM

I’ve been predicting a 50-state landslide for months now…

And it’s getting ever closer.

ebrawer on September 15, 2008 at 9:22 AM

Wrong! With Obama’s plans to tax businesses and their payrolls to redistribute the money to those who pay no taxes is a loosing proposition. In fact, this throws Obama’s complete economic plans into the garbage.

Rovin on September 15, 2008 at 9:12 AM

Perception is more important than reality. It’s alot of “Message: I care.” The reason why McCain has shot up in the polls is because Palin is one of the “common folks” and understands what it is like to have to live within a budget and struggle to pay the bills. However, having large investment houses fail under the current administration is not good news because it goes back to the perception of the rich trying to screw the little guy.

As for the crisis itself, Bush should really have the Feds start investigating some of these investment houses. It seems that there was some outright fraud and shady deals going on in the real estate industry. I’m sure that seeing a few of these CEOs led out in handcuffs would do wonders to calm the market just as going after Arthur Anderson, Enron, and WorldCom calmed the market in 2002.

Illinidiva on September 15, 2008 at 9:22 AM

RNC should take those “bi-partisan Senate record” stats and run $5 million worth of ads in New York. Even if he hangs on there, you can bleed him and make him spend a bunch of money.

Jaibones on September 15, 2008 at 9:22 AM

Which he seems to do with great passion.

Jaibones on September 15, 2008 at 9:23 AM

This has got to be a fluke. I can see Minnesota turning purple, even Wisconsin. But New York? No way Jose.

zmrzlina on September 15, 2008 at 9:24 AM

[reaganaut on September 15, 2008 at 9:15 AM]

I agree with that. More important, however, is the need to work hard in each state even if we lose them, if only to put the kabash on the left’s favorite and inane “selected, not elected” trope.

Dusty on September 15, 2008 at 9:26 AM

I’ve been predicting a 50-state landslide for months now… And it’s getting ever closer. – ebrawer on September 15, 2008 at 9:22 AM

This will depend on how much of the truth about Obama gets out for public consumption. If, in the next few weeks, the alternate media and the internet sites manage to inform enough Americans about Obama’s complete absense of a paper trail, his shady deals with Rezko, his close association with a domestic terrorist and his participation in an organization that engages in voter fraud, the tide of public opinion may well turn into a tsunami of rejection. We’ll know for sure by the end of October.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 9:27 AM

I have been watching the polling there because of the Clinton/Obama issues and some of the polling outfits are showing major percentages of undecideds more than anything else.

Siena College polls find numbers on some questions hitting near 40%.

The only thing that seems to have single digit undecided numbers is Rudy and Hill.

The rest are all in the mid 20% and higher.

CommentGuy on September 15, 2008 at 9:27 AM

This has got to be a fluke. I can see Minnesota turning purple, even Wisconsin. But New York? No way Jose.

zmrzlina on September 15, 2008 at 9:24 AM

New York has a certain Democrat Senator who beat Obama to a pulp in the primaries (and in the actual National vote count) and had her nomination stolen from her by the “superflydelegates”

A little retribution may indeed be in order for The One.

Elizabetty on September 15, 2008 at 9:29 AM

Don’t forget how Obama dissed the memorial by tossing the rose at it. I’m sure a lot of New Yorkers have seen that / will see that.

beatcanvas on September 15, 2008 at 9:29 AM

Looks like Obama may not win many of the States he did not win in the Primaries.

Gosh, who’d a thunk it?

Elizabetty on September 15, 2008 at 9:30 AM

Also recent polling there is looking at no more taxes on the state.

Maybe people are finally waking up somebody has to actually pay those things and it is just a circular feeding frenzy.

Wages go up to compensate for the taxes and taxes are raised in a vicious cycle without end.

Right to the heart of Obama’s economic policies.

That may leave a mark.

CommentGuy on September 15, 2008 at 9:30 AM

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