Is New York in play? Update: Obama loses 13 points since June

posted at 8:30 am on September 15, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

According to the New York Post, internal polling by both Democrats and Republicans show Barack Obama beginning to fade in New York.  Once considered an unassailable bastion for Democrats, the Empire State has narrowed to a potential catastrophe for them, all the way down the ticket.  Polls out today will show a significant gain for John McCain, and a nightmare for Obama:

BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state – where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.

The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties – and produced deep worries among Democrats. …

The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.

The last Siena poll had Obama only up by eight in August.  Apparently, that margin has narrowed even further, a shocking result for a Northeastern state considered a lock for Democrats.  The McCain campaign may start spending money in New York if the results get further confirmed by public polls due out today and later this week.

What happened?  The Post credits the selection of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate, but the snub of their Senator by Obama for the other position may have created a backlash among New Yorkers.  The tax problems of Charlie Rangel may have contributed to the falling fortunes of Democrats, and the Post forgets that this is the first election since Eliot Spitzer’s resignation over his affairs with high-priced hookers.  If the Republican brand suffered nationally, the Democratic brand isn’t doing well in New York now, and the reform rhetoric of Obama isn’t convincing voters there.

If Obama loses his grip on New York, he can’t possibly win the election.  If he has to sink a large amount of money in New York, he’ll have to take it from his efforts in battleground states, and he’ll have to cut his face time in places like Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and Minnesota. That’s a recipe for defeat, both financially and electorally.

Just a week ago, his campaign shrugged off the national polls by asserting that the state polls were what counted.  As this shows, the national polls provide a pretty good barometer about what one can expect in the states.  If New York becomes a toss-up, Obama can kiss his White House aspirations good-bye.

Update: The Siena poll of likely voters in New York shows just how bad Obama has fared.  He lost 13 points off his lead since clinching the nomination, and now barely leads outside the margin of error — and can’t get to a majority:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today.  Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.  On a series of  six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four.  Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.  “The conventions are over.  The running mates are set.  And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

McCain has made significant gains in New York largely on national security and personal attributes.  He wins on terrorism, 54-33, and edges Obama in ensuring American strength, 47-41.  McCain obliterates him on personal qualities, especially patriotism (59-21), experience (73-18), and perhaps most unsettling for Team O, integrity (43-38).

Update: Obama lost 13 points on an 18-point lead, not 18 points. My apologies for the confusion.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

Rod,

Here’s my counter-prediction:

Kos and Dean don’t go anywhere, because they’re the ones who now give directions on where people should go.

MSNBC will do what they have to do in order to keep ratings high enough to make their business viable. It may or may not mirror what goes on in the Dem party.

What’s happening now in the Democratic party is that the ideological liberals (Dean, MoveOn, Kos, et al) have succeeded in wresting control from the institutional liberals (Hillary, Lieberman, et al). Where the Republicans have largely been successful at shearing off and marginalizing the influence in their own party of people like David Duke, Pat Buchanan, and less conservative but equally nutty types like Ross Perot, the Democrats have not. They have gone from Mondale, to Dukakis, to Clinton, to Gore, to Kerry, to Obama – a nearly unbroken linear progression from garden-variety liberal to wackadoo liberal.

They have, over the last dozen or so years, bit by bit ceded control of their party to the kooks. The Republicans may have lost in ’92 due to the vote-splitting caused by Perot’s candidacy, but they didn’t lose because Perot was running the Republican Party. The same can’t be said of the Dems – they lost in 2000, in 2004, and it’s looking like in 2008, because their candidates keep getting more and more liberal.

If the institutional liberals had the power to “dismiss” the ideological kooks, they would have done so by now – probably following the 2000 election, but certainly by 2004. The fact that they haven’t, I submit, is proof that they can’t. Instead, what you have is Joe Lieberman speaking at the GOP convention, Hillary throwing up her hands in a “good luck with that” kind of gesture, PUMA’s crossing over in significant numbers, and states like Minnesota and New York perhaps being in play.

My prediction is that the party will continue to fracture along that ideological/institutional fault line. The ideological liberals will not cede the power they’ve gained – beginning in earnest in 2000, and cemented in 2004. The institutional liberals, with no place else to go, will have no choice but to wage war against them for control of the party. Hillary/Obama was just a skirmish – the real battles are yet to come.

I think it’s a wonderful thing, since the reason the Dems are in this mess is because they made a deal with the devil in 2000 in hopes that having the lunatic fringe on their side would put them over the top. That plan failed, but by the time the SCOTUS process was over and they realized they had lost, it was too late to stop the loon insurgence into the party. Ever since then, it’s since spread like a cancer to the point where excising it would mean not a couple of election cycles spent in the wilderness – like what happened with the GOP in 92 and 96 – but splitting the Dem party as we know it now into two distinct (and competing) entities, neither one of which would have anywhere near the numbers to win the White House. A fracture like that would also likely be mirrored in the House and Senate (hello, Ned Lamont!)

The challenge for Republicans from here on out – provided McCain wins – is to figure out how to keep the GOP from getting so liberal that guys like Lieberman feel they’re able to join in good conscience, or – worse – that they’re considered even more seriously as VP selections by GOP nominees. It’s tempting to want to cast your net wider when you see an opportunity for votes, but we have to remember that when we welcome the likes of Lieberman into our ranks, it doesn’t make guys like him more conservative, nearly as much as it makes our party more liberal.

greggriffith on September 15, 2008 at 1:22 PM

My own girlfriend (who is expecting twins) is not conservative. She is not a crazy liberal but she certainly isn’t conservative.

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Dude, are you going to marry that woman and take care of those babies?

Marry? Not in the very near future but who knows? Taking care of, my little boy and girl? Absolutely!

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 1:33 PM

I smell a LANDSLIDE!!!

pueblo1032 on September 15, 2008 at 11:53 AM

Let’s not get overly confident. McCain needs to keep the expectation of a very close election so that voters come out and vote for him.

highhopes on September 15, 2008 at 1:36 PM

The real question is, will AP’s vote count this election?

Maybe, just maybe?

VolMagic on September 15, 2008 at 1:37 PM

VolMagic on September 15, 2008 at 1:37 PM

We’re doomed!!!

* I keed, I keed.

wise_man on September 15, 2008 at 1:41 PM

Time for a massive autum offensive by Rudy…backed with some Palinmania!

Also, it may be time for Republicans across the country to start asking: Are you better off now than you were two years ago?

The trick now, apparently, will be getting around fraudulent ACORN voters in battleground states.

SuperCool on September 15, 2008 at 1:42 PM

Yeah, this is no time to be slacking off. I’m nervous because in past elections, when the Dem had the huge lead he lost. What does McCain being so close at this point mean? I’d love to see more ads running against Congress. How the Pelosi Congress managed to do what Katrina and Al Queada couldn’t: Namely slow down our economy.

Iblis on September 15, 2008 at 1:56 PM

Time for a massive autum offensive by Rudy…backed with some Palinmania!
SuperCool on September 15, 2008 at 1:42 PM

It hadn’t occurred to me before you mentioned it but a campaign of both Rudy & Lieberman might prove very effective in the northeast. I still doubt McCain would win New York but it would be good to see just how close he could make it. Rudy could even use this as a springboard for a possible run for governor in 2010 and get rid of this corrupt joke of a state leadership we have now.

I couldn’t believe the other day this idiot-race-hustling-goon-in-charge David Patterson said that the state was experiencing financial difficulties. They tax and toll us for just about everything but fresh air in this state, and they are probably working out some scheme to charge us for that. I bet you couldn’t account for where half of the money they collect is going.

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 1:59 PM

I couldn’t believe the other day this idiot-race-hustling-goon-in-charge David Patterson said that the state was experiencing financial difficulties. They tax and toll us for just about everything but fresh air in this state, and they are probably working out some scheme to charge us for that. I bet you couldn’t account for where half of the money they collect is going.

Dude, quiet about the air thing man. Nurse Bloomberg is still looking for more money to squeeze outta us. I love how he talks about congestion pricing, but fails to mention that his big success example, London, privatized its mass transit. Or its impact on areas outside of the CP ZONE. Can you imagine privatizing the MTA? Oh, and NY is probably one of the only places where a $40 traffic ticket actually costs you $120. Or where it costs more in tolls to go between the Bronx and the Rockaways than it does from Maryland to Florida. If the Republicans weren’t so incompetent they’d actually have a shot. Of course NY allows pols to list on multiple parties. My former Assembly man was listed on both Dem AND Republican tickets.

Iblis on September 15, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Oh, and NY is probably one of the only places where a $40 traffic ticket actually costs you $120
Iblis on September 15, 2008 at 2:14 PM

If anyone wants to see what a Democratic run country would look like Just come on over to New York and examine the horror that we deal with year after year. Raised taxes, raised transit fares, raised tolls. For what? Hell if I know. I really want to see the books (before they get cooked that is) But for corruption and financial mismanagement there is no way this state should be out of money.

Thank God Rudy saved NYC (and in many ways saved other cities around the country after several mayors picked up on his methods) in the 90s because I really cant imagine what this place would be like. It really pisses me off to hear these ignorant assholes from the city badmouth Rudy while sipping their lattes without realizing how much of their lifestyle they owe to his governance.

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 2:35 PM

As a Western NY resident, I’ve talked a lot to a bunch of people about Palin. A lot of the blue-collared workers go for the person rather than the party, and BO’s attitude and policies emulate the failed policies that have ravaged the upstate cities, and the republicans don’t seem to be as scary of a choice to them.

My prediction is that a number of the counties that go blue up here will be more purple. Whether that will be enough to turn the state red is anyone’s guess, but it would be wise for the McCain camp to run ads up here, which will trickle down to the contested races here.

People up here need to know that voting for the (D) – or Working Families party (candidates can register for more than one party in NY state) – essentially means that they become sub-servant to Pelosi, Reid, and other Corrupticrats.

pt on September 15, 2008 at 2:35 PM

I see Joe Biden either getting really ill or knocked off by a left wing loonie if things keep going this way for Zeus. Cue the smoke machine and step back…here comes Pantsuitomania

hot-heir on September 15, 2008 at 2:46 PM

The real hope is that this will help the Republicans running for congress. In fact, there is plenty of danger if we get McCain and a strongly leftwing congress…

The worst possible scenario is a solidly Democratic Congress with a “Republican” President McCain. Just think of all the “bipartisan” crap they’d pass together.

flenser on September 15, 2008 at 2:48 PM

It hadn’t occurred to me before you mentioned it but a campaign of both Rudy & Lieberman might prove very effective in the northeast.

Rudy is not very popular in NY, but he could have an impact in NJ and CT. But at present I suspect he’s needed in Florida.

flenser on September 15, 2008 at 2:51 PM

Thank God Rudy saved NYC (and in many ways saved other cities around the country after several mayors picked up on his methods) in the 90s

I’ve always thought that the country would be better off if the big cities (those left-wing ant-heaps) went into terminal decline, and population and power were more dispersed. So I can’t thank Rudy for that.

flenser on September 15, 2008 at 2:55 PM

I wish we had a more detailed picture of this poll. My suspicion is that this is more about urban vs rural than a split in NYC itself. The real “revolution” I see coming is between the conservative rural vs leftist liberal urban areas, especially in the Midwest. Chicago and her suburbs control IL holding a majority of seats in both houses, St. Louis and Kansas City have about 50% of the votes in MO, the Quad Cities area and Des Moines, IA are solidly blue and I frequently read complaints from those elsewhere about those areas’ control in the state.
Such comments can be made for almost every Midwest state and that trend seems to be increasing in the West and South. While I do not know the voting splits in NY, I suspect that upstate tends much more red than NYC and its surrounding areas and that motivated more rural NY voters are the reason for the shift in numbers.

deepdiver on September 15, 2008 at 3:33 PM

My own girlfriend (who is expecting twins) is not conservative. She is not a crazy liberal but she certainly isn’t conservative.

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Dude, are you going to marry that woman and take care of those babies?
Marry? Not in the very near future but who knows? Taking care of, my little boy and girl? Absolutely!

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 1:33 PM

Uh, isn’t there a word for kids who are born when their parents aren’t married? There are quite a few for dads who don’t. “Dishonorable” is one of them.

steve007 on September 15, 2008 at 3:50 PM

Uh, isn’t there a word for kids who are born when their parents aren’t married? There are quite a few for dads who don’t. “Dishonorable” is one of them.

I see you’re not from NYC.

flenser on September 15, 2008 at 4:07 PM

The real “revolution” I see coming is between the conservative rural vs leftist liberal urban areas, especially in the Midwest.

As population grows, and the size and number of cites grows, the number of states like NY and IL will increase. That is, the number of states dominated by left-wing cities.

And we owe it all to our insane open borders policy. Insane from our standpoint, that is. Ted Kennedy is a genius if you’re a lefty.

flenser on September 15, 2008 at 4:11 PM

Uh, isn’t there a word for kids who are born when their parents aren’t married? There are quite a few for dads who don’t. “Dishonorable” is one of them.

steve007 on September 15, 2008 at 3:50 PM

LOL. you are joking right….? Oh I get it…this is a reference to the whole Sarah Palin daughter thing right…? Ha?

I seriously hope you are joking

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 4:14 PM

steve007 on September 15, 2008 at 3:50 PM

You forgot the /sarc tag at the end of your comment, Steve. It’s important to remember to use it, lest people come away with the impression you are a total douchebag.

ManlyRash on September 15, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Capt Ed,

Toss-up doesn’t mean Obama is going to lose NY. He may very well retain NY’s electoral votes. But Obama camp do have to spend time and money during this final leg of the race, instead of on ‘battleground states’. If even NY is in play in their internal polls, dems might have a legitimate reason to worry.

I sure hope those PUMAs will be out in force and make sure no funny business around polling places on election day.

Sir Napsalot on September 15, 2008 at 4:45 PM

Maybe he should have mentioned 9/11.
*shrug*

Ronnie on September 15, 2008 at 4:58 PM

So if Obama has lost 18 points in New York why hasn’t this phenomenon escaped the borders of the Nanny State (TM)?

It can’t just be PUMAs…because that’s a LOT of PUMAs and Pennsylvania would have already broken in a big way. Anyone have a real idea here?

I really just don’t get it. But that being said, bring on Rudy. Have him promise McCain/Palin will crack skulls together worse than when he closed down all the strip clubs.

its_a_trap on September 15, 2008 at 2:20 PM

I can explain to an extent. New York is Hillary’s home state. As such they would keep an even keener eye on the fortunes of Mrs. Clinton. The women there would probably relate to her even more strongly than women in most states would as well.

Note that the decline in Obama’s popularity in New York started with the Democratic convention. This is about the time that concern for how Obama had treated Hillary started reaching a crescendo. The attempts to stifle any visible signs of strength by the Hillary backers really turned off a lot of Democrats.

Then move on to the selection of Joe Biden who has been fairly inept at helping the Obama cause. Many New Yorkers, and not just women, did not understand this pick.

I think the best bit of proof is the low ratings that Obama gets for integrity in New York. This is almost certainly a reflection of the perception that Obama was not fair in how he treated Hillary.

In short, Obama has done everything he could to alienate New York voters, and especially women. I doubt that such a sympathy with Hillary would extend in any broad based way outside of New York.

Hawthorne on September 15, 2008 at 4:59 PM

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 4:14 PM

While this is off-topic, I felt I should inform you of one fact. Some states will list a child as a bastard on their birth certificate if the parents are not married. While it is not any of my business whether you get married or not, this is a stigma your children will have to bear. You should at least check to see if your state does this and if they do, you may wish to consider having the babies born in another state that does not.

Hawthorne on September 15, 2008 at 5:03 PM

Time for a massive autum offensive by Rudy…backed with some Palinmania!
SuperCool on September 15, 2008 at 1:42 PM

It’s called, “diversion of resources.”

The NE is a lost cause, with the very, very outside exception of NH. Accept it. Move on. Forget about trying to make a point or divert Dem resources. And stop listening to people who try to divert your attention.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 5:11 PM

I say again, this topic should be removed as counterproductive.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 5:12 PM

If you look at the electoral map of NY for the 2004 election, you’ll see that most of the state is red, with central NY (Ithaca, Syracuse, Binghamton corridor), Long Island and downstate, and Buffalo blue. Unfortunately, the blue areas are densely populated.

It would be nice to think that NY is in play and I suspect that if Rudy starts spending some time here we can consider the internal polling very favorable.

Upstate New Yorker on September 15, 2008 at 5:19 PM

While this is off-topic, I felt I should inform you of one fact. Some states will list a child as a bastard on their birth certificate if the parents are not married. While it is not any of my business whether you get married or not, this is a stigma your children will have to bear. You should at least check to see if your state does this and if they do, you may wish to consider having the babies born in another state that does not.

Hawthorne on September 15, 2008 at 5:03 PM

Since this is not 1845 I doubt they would do that in New York. By the way, I would love the name of a state that actually does that.

titus_pullo on September 15, 2008 at 5:21 PM

I say again, this topic should be removed as counterproductive.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 5:12 PM

You are absolutely right, never could a Republican win NY, not even Reagan did, or Bush in 88…oh wait…

right2bright on September 15, 2008 at 5:27 PM

I say again, this topic should be removed as counterproductive.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 5:12 PM

Counterproductive to WHAT? The polls are what they are.

Your instinct to squash free speech is alarming.

I remember vividly Republicans winning New York state and it is entirely posible.

Elizabetty on September 15, 2008 at 5:30 PM

If you look at the electoral map of NY for the 2004 election, you’ll see that most of the state is red, with central NY (Ithaca, Syracuse, Binghamton corridor), Long Island and downstate, and Buffalo blue. Unfortunately, the blue areas are densely populated.

It would be nice to think that NY is in play and I suspect that if Rudy starts spending some time here we can consider the internal polling very favorable.

Upstate New Yorker on September 15, 2008 at 5:19 PM

Useless. Diversion of resources. I appreciate you wish to think the best about your state, but its best interests lie with securing the election.

Fortunately, I doubt the McCain campaign looks here much.

I wouldn’t be surprised if half that one stupid article’s origin was a Dem deception to divert attention. Don’t fall for it.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 5:32 PM

Counterproductive to WHAT? The polls are what they are.

Your instinct to squash free speech is alarming.

I remember vividly Republicans winning New York state and it is entirely posible.

Elizabetty on September 15, 2008 at 5:30 PM

Uh, first, this is not government-run, so no freedom-of-speech squashing here. I understand your point, but I am more concerned with the success of the campaign than in personal indulgence on here. We simply don’t have the luxury.

Things are tightening. Hussein would be horrible for the country. Stopping him must take priority. (Yes, I’m not a happy camper right now.)

Second, whereas NY ain’t gonna switch barring anything short of Hussein flying the next suicide plane himself, it’s useless exercise and takes attention off of where some good might be done.

Third, the GOP winning there on a national ticket was too long ago and (correct me if wrong) with Reagan or Bush-41. The Dems need us to be overconfident. Thinking of NY as even possible is diversion.

Now, I’m done with this topic. Moving on to something potentially fruitful.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 5:38 PM

I doubt the McCain campaign looks here much.

Yes, I think it’s save to assume that the opinions of people on the right are not of much interest to McMoron.

flenser on September 15, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Some states will list a child as a bastard on their birth certificate if the parents are not married

I call BS. Name that state.

JustTruth101 on September 15, 2008 at 5:50 PM

Yes, I think it’s save to assume that the opinions of people on the right are not of much interest to McMoron.

flenser on September 15, 2008 at 5:40 PM

His new name is McBrilliant, thank you very much. Ever since he picked Palin anyway.

JustTruth101 on September 15, 2008 at 5:51 PM

Eh, here’s hoping McCain spends his money wisely in New York. It’s hard for me to believe that those numbers are anything more than disaffected Hillary people getting their last digs in before “getting in line” behind their current leftist overlord.

spmat on September 15, 2008 at 5:53 PM

I will say this, though, spending just enough to force Barry into a defensive battle inside his border (thus draining resources from battleground states that are well within McCain’s reach) would be a master stroke. Keep the Hillary folks in play as long as possible, keep Barry’s resources going to New York (where advertising is much more expensive than, say, Ohio or Florida).

spmat on September 15, 2008 at 6:01 PM

Well, as a purely subjective offering, I live just outside Ithaca, NY (Cornell U. – hotbed of liberalism) and I have noticed that there are no new Obama signs. The old ones sit in the same yards since the primary, but there are no new signs sitting in every other yard like for Kerry in 2004. Nor are there new bumper stickers.

As I said, this is just an observation, but this is a town ripe for Obama, so the idea that supporters are not excited about him is interesting.

Upstate New Yorker on September 15, 2008 at 6:07 PM

Down 18 pts in NY since June?

Things like this just make me grin from ear to ear…

JetBoy on September 15, 2008 at 6:18 PM

{on knees, hands clasped in prayer}

Dear Lord,

May I please ask for an early Christmas gift? Please allow my state of New York to get so close in the Presidential polls, that John McCain thinks it’s a great idea to send Sarah Palin to Long Island for a rally/town hall.

If you can’t send Sarah’cuda, I’ll settle for my state going Red in November.

Thank you, Lord! Amen!

{climbs into bed for a great nights sleep!}

Thanks for

IrishGirl17 on September 15, 2008 at 6:18 PM

I was wondering about the internal polling.

This Friday I heard the McCain campaign will be opening an office(s) in NY state this week.

Their downstate office will be on suburban Long Island.

peterargus on September 15, 2008 at 8:51 AM

From your mouth to McCain’s ears! The closest office I could find was in New Jersey.

I’ll have to check the website again and see if it’s up there yet.

IrishGirl17 on September 15, 2008 at 6:25 PM

May I please ask for an early Christmas gift? Please allow my state of New York to get so close in the Presidential polls, that John McCain thinks it’s a great idea to send Sarah Palin to Long Island for a rally/town hall.

IrishGirl17 on September 15, 2008 at 6:18 PM

How awesome would it be if NY goes red this November? Ahhh…never thought I’d live to see the day it was even remotely possible.

JetBoy on September 15, 2008 at 6:33 PM

Dateline Election night:
New York goes red, and a cackle echoes across Chappaqua.

Iblis on September 15, 2008 at 6:43 PM

You are absolutely right, never could a Republican win NY, not even Reagan did, or Bush in 88…oh wait…

right2bright on September 15, 2008 at 5:27 PM

TWENTY F@CKING YEARS AGO!

Have a nice daydream.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 6:44 PM

TWENTY F@CKING YEARS AGO!

Have a nice daydream.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 6:44 PM

Yeah, you’re right, if it happened twenty years ago, it could never happen again, never…
Has New York City ever elected a Republican Governor? If it has they probably had to be liberal, well I guess that leaves that ultra-conservative McCain out…

right2bright on September 15, 2008 at 7:04 PM

May I please ask for an early Christmas gift? Please allow my state of New York to get so close in the Presidential polls, that John McCain thinks it’s a great idea to send Sarah Palin to Long Island for a rally/town hall.

IrishGirl17 on September 15, 2008 at 6:18 PM

That’s what my wife said about NC, now that is is not a questionable state.
All we got was the Obama campaign bus parked out in front of our homes a few months ago…stunk up the area for weeks…

right2bright on September 15, 2008 at 7:06 PM

Rasmussen just released some new state polls

polls

Virginia
The race for the White House in Virginia is a tie this week. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 48% support in the Old Dominion.

Colorado
John McCain has taken a modest lead over Barack Obama in Colorado this week. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds the Republican on top 48% to 46%

Pennsylvannia
The race for Pennsylvania’s 21 Electoral College votes is tied.
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 47% of the vote (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members). Eighty-three percent (83%) of Obama voters are certain they will vote for him and not change their mind before Election Day. An identical

OHIO
new Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain holding on to a 48% to 45% lead over Barack Obama in Ohio, down from a seven-point spread a week ago.

FLORIDA
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Sunshine State finds John McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44% (crosstabs available for Premium Members). Eighty-four percent (84%) of McCain voters and 84% of Obama voters are certain of their vote and say they will not change their mind before Election Day.

William Amos on September 15, 2008 at 7:08 PM

Yeah, you’re right, if it happened twenty years ago, it could never happen again, never…
Has New York City ever elected a Republican Governor? If it has they probably had to be liberal, well I guess that leaves that ultra-conservative McCain out…

right2bright on September 15, 2008 at 7:04 PM

Times have changed. NYC has too much power.

As far as the governor, no, NYC hasn’t. The state has, but the city hasn’t.

Nonetheless, that quote is the closest thing any of you has made to a valid point in this. You’re still wrong, and the campaign would be stupid to put money into that state. Wouldn’t it be ironic if McCain-Palin put time and effort into NY, and then lost the election by a few votes in CO or NV. Not that I’m suggesting anyone might be trying to plant a bad idea in the GOP camp. Oh no. Just forget what I said.

Out.

Tommygun on September 15, 2008 at 7:12 PM

Re: blockquote>trubble on September 15, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Trubble you may not see McCain signs in Niagara Falls but on Grand Island just across the river from you, the signs are out for McCain and I have had several people asking if I have more. Bumper stickers are going on cars too; watch for them. The “Bush = McCain” message hasn’t sold — at least not yet. I agree that New York would be a tough victory but remember, Ford only lost to Carter by 4% and Obama is more left than Carter ever was on economic issues.

KW64 on September 15, 2008 at 7:12 PM

How awesome would it be if NY goes red this November? Ahhh…never thought I’d live to see the day it was even remotely possible. JetBoy on September 15, 2008 at 6:33 PM

Ahhh. It would be awesome. The stuff HA dreams are made of.

We’ll see. The mo is all McCain and defense is not the strong suit of Obambi and O’Biden.

Mojave Mark on September 15, 2008 at 9:08 PM

Tacky Obama labels Palin “just another Bush to preside in the White House” while simultaneously charging Palin for not knowing the “Bush Doctrine”. This argument is the equivalent of voting “present” and never deciding to vote “Yes” or “No” on an essential piece of legislation, as if “present” functions simultaneously as “Yes AND No”.

Obama’s personal religious bigotry labeled Palin’s faith “Christianist” in the same dialogue that he referenced his own “Muslim beliefs”. Neither McCain nor Palin has ever discussed Obama’s faith, nor will they.

Political ideology is the name of the game this election. So spit it out. There’s no rule requiring conservatives to swill down Marxism in order to be popular or win an election. To the contrary. Spit it out. Label it loud and clear. Produce and publicize non stop all of Marx’s failures past, present, and in the works projecting into tomorrow.

maverick muse on September 15, 2008 at 9:54 PM

This is pretty shocking, but I’ll be really excited the day I see McCain gaining ground in my state.

Come on Vermonters – vote for the vet and the mommy, not the plagiarist and the commie!

RightWinged on September 15, 2008 at 9:59 PM

I agree, generally speaking. Why is the Dope not being called out as a doctrinaire run-of-the-mill *MARXIST* community organizer street thug? Treating him as reasonable allows him to be perceived as such by the people who don’t really pay attention.

Fortunata on September 15, 2008 at 10:33 PM

I will say this, though, spending just enough to force Barry into a defensive battle inside his border (thus draining resources from battleground states that are well within McCain’s reach) would be a master stroke. Keep the Hillary folks in play as long as possible, keep Barry’s resources going to New York (where advertising is much more expensive than, say, Ohio or Florida).

spmat on September 15, 2008 at 6:01 PM

My point exactly. Where better or more effectively, to deploy Rudy than New York to force Obama into a defensive on his own turf. Palin’s big swing should be through Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio where I think she can really connect with the voters and help swing/hold three big states.

Would it really be such a bad idea to have her Strike North, so to speak, after a swing through Pennsylvania?

It’s not like I’m saying send her into New England, although, I think she’d play very well in New Hampshire
and Maine.

Gotta try and grab as many states as you can. Electoral landslides can’t be dismissed as “stolen” wins.

SuperCool on September 15, 2008 at 10:55 PM

Hey Ed & Allah!

Please, please, please…get this out front:

Mark Levin Show Sept 15, 2008

Saltysam on September 15, 2008 at 10:56 PM

The RNC should throw up a few commercial in NYC…2 for one with New Jersey also imploding on Bambi. It probably won’t work, but…

SouthernGent on September 15, 2008 at 10:57 PM

OMG : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anieuWFWe8s&eurl=http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/

**DEVASTATING!!** Abortion Survivor Gianna Jessen Blasts Obama For Voting Against Protecting Newborn Survivors of Abortion In New Ad

skree on September 15, 2008 at 10:59 PM

**DEVASTATING!!** Abortion Survivor Gianna Jessen Blasts Obama For Voting Against Protecting Newborn Survivors of Abortion In New Ad

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/

skree on September 15, 2008 at 10:59 PM

skree on September 15, 2008 at 10:59 PM

Wow, skree…

Did you see the “lipstick” on her? I wonder if they meant to do that?

Great ad!

Saltysam on September 15, 2008 at 11:09 PM

Hey Ed & Allah!

Please, please, please…get this out front:

Mark Levin Show Sept 15, 2008

Saltysam on September 15, 2008 at 10:56 PM

I’m with Sam, get this out front STAT!

SuperCool on September 15, 2008 at 11:58 PM

Watch New Jersey and Maryland as well……

EricPWJohnson on September 16, 2008 at 12:18 AM

^^^^^
Maryland? I doubt it. A recent poll there showed Bambi up by double digits.

New Jersey may bear watching…

SouthernGent on September 16, 2008 at 12:56 AM

I grew up in Western NY out in the country…Sarah should stop on by, lots of gun owners who are conservative independents that may not necessarily vote.

senrab on September 16, 2008 at 6:32 AM

I have always thought that the Peoples Republic of Maryland was a lost cause and not with a conservative effort. On the other hand, I felt essentially the same way about New York . . . who knows anymore?

rplat on September 16, 2008 at 8:52 AM

Posted on an Allahpundit topic about Palin’s positives declining (misleading and incomplete title, and pertaining t a strange and odd poll):

Meanwhile Rasmussen puts NY out of McCains Reach

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_york/election_2008_new_york_presidential_election

The race for New York is the closest it’s been in six months, but Barack Obama still leads John McCain by 13 points, 55% to 42%, in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

William Amos on September 16, 2008 at 5:14 PM

I’m sorry I was apparently right on this.

Tommygun on September 16, 2008 at 9:13 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3