Majority rules: McCain 50, Obama 47 at Rasmussen; Update: Dead even in Minnesota?

posted at 12:35 pm on September 14, 2008 by Allahpundit
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This is their three-day tracker, which means it incorporates two full days of reaction to Thursday night’s Charlie Gibson interview. As usual, the difference lies in the ratio of McCainocrats to Obamicans, something you’d never know from the media’s coverage of The One’s supposed post-partisan appeal:

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 53%… McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans and has a six-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama…

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama has the edge in states with 193 votes. When “leaners” are included, shows Obama leading 259-247…

Rasmussen weights by party, which they’ve pegged this week at 38.7% Democrat and 33.6% Republican. If they’re lowballing GOPers — and they may well be — then Maverick’s lead is bigger than this suggests. Question, though: How’s night two of the Gibson interview going to play? Night one got more attention online because blogs spend most of their time on foreign policy, but for much of the public the exchanges on social policy will be their first clue that she doesn’t support abortion in cases of rape and incest, strongly favors gun rights, etc. That’s fine for conservatives, but note well the margin in the blockquote among unaffiliateds. Hmmm.

Here’s new vid from Carson City, her first solo appearance on the trail. If you’re bored watching her deliver the same speech at every stop, the crowds very much aren’t. Must-reading from Politico:

Many wore buttons just purchased from vendors outside the pavilion — a pink “You Go Girl” was a favorite — and some sported shirts paying homage to the most memorable line in her convention speech, “McCain-Palin ‘08” with the “O” as a pair of red lips.

Asked why they liked her, voters said little about issues but rather focused on Palin’s personal qualities and compelling life story.

“PTA, Soccer Mom, that kind of stuff,” explained Luann Tiner.

“She’s the only candidate of all four who can actually shoot an assault rifle,” chimed in her husband, Ken…

Blake and Shay Johnson of Reno were even more plain-spoken…

They said that it was the first time they attended a political event and that they had just given a financial contribution to the campaign.

“That’s how excited she’s made us feel,” Shay Johnson said.

Update: Oh my. CNN had Obama by 12 in Minnesota just before the GOP convention.

Minnesota has become a battleground in a presidential campaign that has dramatically tightened nationwide.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state…

The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.

Palinmania is only a marginal factor, surprisingly, with 30 percent saying it makes them more likely to vote for McCain and 26 percent saying less likely.

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