Battlegrounds: Florida, Pennsylvania breaking for McCain?
posted at 5:34 pm on September 13, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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As if the Barack Obama needed any more bad news, the St. Petersburg Times and Zogby both deliver cause for pessimism at Team O. Florida polling shows that despite spending millions in advertising in the Sunshine State and a delay in advertising for McCain, Obama is in worse position that John Kerry at the same time in 2004. Zogby has new polling that shows Obama now trails in Pennsylvania, a must-hold state for the Democrats.
First, the Florida breakdown:
Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.
Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America’s biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state. …
He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.
Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.
And Pennsylvania? According to Zogby, Obama is down by five:
Updated: 9/13/2008
Summary:
McCain – 49.1%
Obama – 44.3%
Not Sure/Other – 6.6%“This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We’re turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state.”
And in Ohio, Zogby now puts McCain ahead of Obama by six, a substantial enough margin to move the state from purple to red. Zogby, of course, is one of the more volatile pollsters, so any results here should be taken with a grain of salt. However, if McCain takes Pennsylvania and holds Ohio and Florida, it will be difficult for Obama to prevail in a national election.
Obama could hope to capture Virginia, which has eight less Electoral College votes than PA. However, Zogby also shows McCain up by over six points there in its latest polling of likely voters. He may do better in North Carolina than in Virginia, with two more EC votes, as Zogby has Obama slightly ahead by less than the margin of error. McCain has moved out to a similar lead in Colorado now, and has taken a seven point lead in New Hampshire and Nevada.
Momentum appears to have definitely shifted towards McCain. Expect the Obama campaign to focus like a laser on these battleground states and end any remaining pretense at a national effort.
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MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:20 PM
Don’t give up your day job, if you have one, and try to become a detective as you will surly starve.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:24 PM
Seems a bit more like Korea to me: Obama came out of the gate like the NorK blitz, the GOP was pushed back to Pusan, but the line held. Then Palin lands at Inchon and the convention turns into the Pusan breakout.
Right about now they’ve re-taken Seoul and pushed Obama back over the 38th after carving up his thinned out lines and worn out forces.
Only thing they’ve got to do now is make sure they don’t over-reach themselves and keep China on the other side of the Yalu and they’ll be in pretty good shape to have the boys home by Christmas.
SuperCool on September 13, 2008 at 11:24 PM
Oh dear. A dud…much like the Messiah’s campaign.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 11:25 PM
Do you almost hear him speaking to you through your microwave or through your hair drier?
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:26 PM
At least DethMetal has a day job. Aside from avoiding sunlight…what is yours?
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 11:27 PM
If the tinfoil hat is properly adjusted, even YOU can hear him.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 11:28 PM
Just watch those Chinese. We were cocky, and thought they wouldn’t join the tick…, ur, intervene. We saw the intelligence, but ignored it, and continued on with the rolling party. We left vulnerabilities, but didn’t think anything of them. Then we hit the counter-surge.
Let’s not make the same mistake here, folks.
Tommygun on September 13, 2008 at 11:29 PM
…sometimes both, which beats hearing you speaking out your azz.
91Veteran on September 13, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Manly Rash:
Are you John Ringo?
texette on September 13, 2008 at 11:32 PM
Should ever I get to your state and decide to wear a tinfoil hat I will be sure to seek your advise on it’s proper adjustment.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:32 PM
Stop that! He thinks he is George S. Patton.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:34 PM
Howard Dean forced to go to Washington State to fight Palinmania
William Amos on September 13, 2008 at 11:34 PM
One should always tailor ones speaking mode to ones audience.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:35 PM
So, your audience are the other liberal trolls here then.
91Veteran on September 13, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Maybe Howard and Sarah can trade foreign policy expertise and military war stories seeing as how they have both been Nation Guard commanders.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Once again, Ed, when Allah comes back on Monday, he’s gonna post a very strong objection to this silly pie-in-the-sky nonsense of yours…
Jaibones on September 13, 2008 at 11:39 PM
Can’t get the video on this terminal. What’s it gist of it?
Tommygun on September 13, 2008 at 11:40 PM
William Amos on September 13, 2008 at 11:34 PM
Heh. Howard Dean. Set him up alongside “God love ya” Biden and see who’s first to say something stupid. Unfortunately my stopwatch isn’t sensitive enough to measure that brief of an interval. Maybe Jim
TurbanDurbin can throw a little of his wisdom in, too.innominatus on September 13, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Sapwolf on September 13, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Amen there!
Tommygun on September 13, 2008 at 11:45 PM
Tommygun:
Boilerplate “More failed Bush policies we can’t afford” in front of not-so-large crowds. Then when asked whether Washington is a battleground state, “Yes, we consider every state a battleground state.”
Good luck on that 50 (57?) front war, dems.
innominatus on September 13, 2008 at 11:46 PM
There goes someone with that vacuous word of desperation, troll, again. None of you people are any competition at all. I wish some of you people could do better. What is the internet world coming to? The real Patton would probably slap you silly.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Please, Dean-0, give us just one YEEEEEEE-ARRRRRGHHH! moment for the cameras.
Just one.
SuperCool on September 13, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Thank you. It does show the Hussein people are taking the shift seriously.
Tommygun on September 13, 2008 at 11:48 PM
SuperCool on September 13, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Dean will deliver your scream, the night of the election as he’s watching MSNBC in disbelief. It’ll have a little more of a mopey, childish tone this time, though.
innominatus on September 13, 2008 at 11:50 PM
Dean was in Washington state trashing McCain as 4 more years of Bush.
Then local station showed polls that race is tight between McCain and Obama
Then reporter asks Dean “How is Sarah Palin affecting this race ?”
Dean replies “We arent running against Palin but against McCain”
Then they go to a poltical Pundit who steps all over Dean’s thoughts by saying Sarah has had a big impact.
William Amos on September 14, 2008 at 12:34 AM
I am no one in particular.
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 12:35 AM
He alrady did.
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 12:37 AM
Mine? Nay, ma’am. go ye to Kos. They will avail you in the ways of moonbat wisdom
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 12:41 AM
I am convinced McCain will take Michigan, for what it’s worth.
lansing quaker on September 14, 2008 at 12:50 AM
Appreciate it. I’ll check the video ASAP.
Tommygun on September 14, 2008 at 12:55 AM
Oh thank God. MB4 Is back! That hugely announced departure had me wetting my pants it would be weeks before he graced this thread with his banality. Thank the heavens he could only keep away for no more than an hour!
Chuck Schick on September 14, 2008 at 1:02 AM
ManlyRash, Good stuff.
But there is no way on God’s green earth that any wisdom of any kind emerges from the Daily Kommunists.
either orr on September 14, 2008 at 1:02 AM
Go back through the past couple of pages -
You guys are the ones that are flailing
becoming unhinged
Not the Dems or Obama.
Weak!
an_abstraction on September 14, 2008 at 1:07 AM
Don’t take PA out of the mix yet. There are way too many of us bitter clingers who are cleaning our guns in preparation for deer season and reading our Bibles for inspiration on how to beat the devil Obama.
either orr on September 14, 2008 at 1:10 AM
No, no, no.
It’s only fun when he does it in front of a large audience and on camera at the worst possible time.
I want him to go nutball NOW and help tip Washington into the McCain column.
The GOP needs to send Palin there STAT. Even without Dean-0 going nutball, she can still do a lot to appeal to a state slipping out of Obama’s grasp.
After that, ON TO MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA!
SuperCool on September 14, 2008 at 1:16 AM
It’s Zogby. I trust my dog’s political predictions more than them.
spmat on September 14, 2008 at 1:17 AM
Ladies and gentlemen, the above is a textbook case of denial.
SuperCool on September 14, 2008 at 1:18 AM
I still have Obama friends trying to tell me Indiana is a swing state.
And SOUTH DAKOTA.
Denial runs rampant in that crowd.
lansing quaker on September 14, 2008 at 1:22 AM
Minnesota Poll: Obama, McCain are dead even in state
bnelson44 on September 14, 2008 at 1:47 AM
becoming unhinged.
an_abstraction on Sept 14,2008 at 1:07AM.
an_abstraction: Pageing Doctor Hope,Pageing Doctor Changey
code red in the DNC!
All personel,Code Red,this is a lock down,
the Liberals are desperate,there leaping
off the ledges!(Sarc).
canopfor on September 14, 2008 at 1:55 AM
The Fed is trying desperately to find a buyer for Lehman. All over the world, officials have urged that this be done before the Asian markets open on September 15. The German Finance Minister at the EU Finance Ministers meeting has strongly urged it. The Fed meets on September 16.
Black Monday? Got Gold? Got Guns?
KentAllard on September 14, 2008 at 2:05 AM
We NRA folks are rubbing our hands to pull the lever against the anti-gun ticket of Obama-Biden, the most anti-Second Amendment ticket in decades.
Don’t think that is not going to tip some states to the Red side.
TexasJew on September 14, 2008 at 2:22 AM
It was warned there would be ups and downs in the campaign. Into last week, our side was definitely on the up. But last week marked a number of events: Interviews with Hussein and Palin, the 9/11 commemoration. Earlier that week, McCain-Palin had been running some strong ads and saying some strong things. Whenever that happens, it will open the way for counter-attacks. Gaffes, errors, “exaggerations”–even simple voter fatigue–all serve to give fodder.
Please, expect an onslaught, and expect some negative poll number changes. It will not mean that all is lost. It will simply mean we and the campaign need to do more. The war will not be lost WHEN Hussein shows a five-point lead somewhere we thought we were going to take. That’s just part of the game.
There are a lot of other articles as well, but this one seemed interesting for some reason:
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28315209.html?
Tommygun on September 14, 2008 at 2:34 AM
It was warned there would be ups and downs….
Tommygun on Sept 14,2008 at 2:34AM.
Tommygun: Good point,Hot air crew last month were on the
verge of mutiny,and as SarahCuda came along
things are looking rosy!
After some intel gathering from HuffPuff and
Daily Krap,they are beginning to snap!
And their theme is,that voters are being lied
to!
McCain/Palin are telling the truth,and with
Gibson’s(taking one for the team)hit piece,
your right,the real nastiness from the Left,
as if it wasn’t nasty enough,will be ratched
up!:)
canopfor on September 14, 2008 at 3:15 AM
Heehee. Tina Fey as Sarah Palin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc3Zxq078ns
Tuning Spork on September 14, 2008 at 3:26 AM
An Abstraction needs to take his abstract opinion, shove a mossberg into it’s throat, and fire.
Sakaki on September 14, 2008 at 3:39 AM
Fey nails the voice and the gesture quirks (like the finger pointing). Hits her on her performance in the Gibson interview, but (spoiler) stays within bounds regarding the family. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc3Zxq078ns
Tommygun on September 14, 2008 at 5:42 AM
Maybe they can all add this to their evidence of MB4 = Michael in MI. (It was actually amusing to go back and re-read that thread and remember when you and I were debate adversaries instead of being mistaken for being the same person heh)
Seriously though, there are simply a few people who post here who are not interested in actually having intellectual debate, and when they cry out “troll!”, they ironically do not even realize they are practicing projection.
Michael in MI on September 14, 2008 at 5:56 AM
Now this is good news for the morning!
drjohn on September 14, 2008 at 9:08 AM
I’ll be surprised if FL didn’t go McCain. Afterall, BO has aliented both the jew and the elderly. And, the latino population has no reason not to vote for McCain.
jbh45 on September 14, 2008 at 9:25 AM
Until recently, I’ve been hearing that from both sides. I believe Ed called it a swing state not long ago.
Yeah, like Utah’s a swing state. They can’t find enough boxes of “ballots” in “closets” in Gary to outvote the rest of the state — though don’t get your hopes up about Pennsylvania. The folks here don’t call it Filthadelphia for nothin.
rightwingprof on September 14, 2008 at 9:37 AM
It’s simply magical how you manage to show up around MB4 posts Michael.
And ain’t it interesting the way never-before-heard-of posters like texette just happen to randomly pop up in MB4’s defense?
I know…Iknow…..I’m just paranoid….yes…yes….I need medication…….yawn*…. You really need a new retort.
You’re a troll, pal. You know you’re a troll, most people in here realize you’re a troll. And NOW we are starting to discover all your little sock-puppet troll names as well.
Who did you say you were voting for again?
Oh that’s right…..you refuse to say…..
troll troll troll………….
FiveWays on September 14, 2008 at 9:42 AM
Lieutenant Tommygun, Sir!
Thanks for that rousing stem winder Sir!
Does that mean I’ll be the “Follow Me” guy on this mission and you’ll be remaining secure to coordinate the final assault on the target from here in the rear… at headquarters…?
OK…!
The troopers and I really appreciate your morale support,
continuing optimism and leadership, Sir!
Thank you Sir!
Hooaah…!
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 11:05 AM
I have to compliment you folks.
You all maintain your sense of humor and comity despite the sharp and truthful effacing of your candidate.
Outstanding…!
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 11:16 AM
My sentiments precisely, JG. Read it and weep:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain reaching the 50% level of support for the first time since Barack Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. McCain retains a three-point advantage for the third straight day, 50% to 47% (see recent daily results).
Voters are evenly divided as to who they think will win, but McCain voters are now more excited about the election than Obama’s. Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 52.7% chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 46.2%. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.
McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 53% (see trends). McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans and has a six-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.
And it’s only the middle of September. Your boy is cooked,
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Where is the needle at now on the Despair-O-Meter™, Allah?
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 12:29 PM
I note that this information is provided by Ed. When Obama starts funneling more money and advertising into these battleground states and the polls change in favor of Obama, I’m assured in the fact that will be pessimistically reported by AllahPundit. Of course, in favor of Obama winning the election since that’s he’s prediction: Close but no cigar.
Sultry Beauty on September 14, 2008 at 2:11 PM
If past presidential elections are any gauge, it’s not the west side of my state Dean needs to speak to, they’ve been pretty reliably blue, the commies!
He should come across the mountains into the red section. We may boo, but we won’t bite (well, not so we leave a mark, anyway.)
TeeDee on September 14, 2008 at 2:48 PM
This is curtains in Florida for the Republicans; their failed domestic economic policies won’t be taken lying down by all those retirees relying on their pensions, 401K’s and IRA’s.
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said today…
We all know Lehmann Brothers is toast…?
Before we count our chickens; to be fair, we should probably wait for those economic wizards John and Sarah to weigh in.
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I don’t stop by nearly as much as I used to…these days the stories aren’t nearly as funny or irreverent, the comments are downright boring and the troll level as reached epic proportions.
Let’s get back to Hotair Classic.
Dorvillian on September 14, 2008 at 3:39 PM
I’m hoping that McCain really stays ahead in the polls and that people actually VOTE.
MrsWeebork on September 14, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Golly Dorvillian, I do my best to be humorous while at the same time irreverent and still not being disrespectful…!
Would it help if I tried to inject more parody and sarcasm…?
Your call!
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Maybe Jim Turban Durbin can throw a little of his wisdom in, too.
innominatus on September 13, 2008 at 11:41 PM
—-
Are you referring to Dick(head) Durbin, the Senior Senator from Illinois?
The guy who *almost* lost his last election to the under-funded, unsupported, insurgent candidacy of Jim Durkin?
Similar names, true, but not similar folk.
Mew
acat on September 14, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Sorry to burst your bubble there, JG, but the “failed domestic economic policies” responsible for the current mess originated in Congress – the DEMOCRAT CONTROLLED Congress, which now has an approval rating less than 10%.
Fortunately, Palinmania is having a downticket effect and Republicans may very well regain control of the House. If Bambi keeps screwing up, they may retake the Senate.
Heh.
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/12/AR2008091202415.html
Calm Before the Storm on September 14, 2008 at 4:14 PM
It would help if you went away. Perhaps you can share your unique blend of irreverence and stupidity in the fever swamps. Between now and Nov 4 they are going to need all the cheering up they can get.
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 4:14 PM
I’ve lived in Florida 40 years and know the state VERY well.
There is no way in he** Fl goes blue this time.
In fact, I’ll say confidently it’s at least a 5-point win here for McCain/Palin.
Marybeth on September 14, 2008 at 4:24 PM
Manly my man, I really know you’re funnin’ me now…!
Let’s see now…?
By golly I remember clearly now, when the oldsters I visited, next door, last week, reminisced…
Yah see what I mean Manly…?
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 4:31 PM
I see what you mean. I just can’t see it from your perspective as I am unable to stick my head up my ass. Sorry.
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Golly Dorvillian, I do my best to be humorous while at the same time irreverent and still not being disrespectful…!
Would it help if I tried to inject more parody and sarcasm…?
Your call!
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 5:00 PM
You could start by not repeating your posts.
ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 5:25 PM
Would someone tell me why Real Clear Politics seems to ignore Zogby data?
toliver on September 14, 2008 at 5:48 PM
MB4 and Michael seem to think that since some Republicans did not seem to warm to McCain last year that they are duty bound to sit back with their thumbs up their asses and let Barack Hussein Obama win the White House.
Well, I was never one of those people who was calling John McCain Juan McAmnesty so that does not apply to me.
But my guess is that even though McCain might not have been the first choice of everyone {no one else was either}..he is the nominee today and he is way better than the alternative.
If this is too difficult for MB4 to grasp or if he just does not care, then fine and dandy. Who the hell cares?
BTW, Michael, if McCain loses, Bush will be the one they blame. I don’t think he deserves that.
Terrye on September 14, 2008 at 5:49 PM
And Michael, there is nothing intellectual about attacking other people for supporting their party’s nominee. If you want an intellectual debate go to some site where they discuss literature or philosophy or some esoteric crap that might get your intellectual juices going. This is a political site. There is a campaign on. There are two major parties and two major candidates. One of them will win and one of them will lose. Intellectual debate has nothing to do with it.
Terrye on September 14, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Five WAys:
Could MB4 and Michael be one and the same? I must admit it had occured to me.
Terrye on September 14, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Ease up on MB4: he’s only 12 years old!
landlines on September 14, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Mon apologies Manly, came back from “long walkies” with “man’s best friend”; she caught her foot in the mouse cord and…
Whall-lah…!
So you were treated twice to my unforgettable sagely advice and profound wisdom.
I cain’t gar-on-tee it wouldn’t happen again. Both she and me luv breaks from higher intellectual pursuits…!
You nevertheless; will be the better enlighten and informed for it today and if you’re lucky sometime in the future…!
Win, win for you, Manly my man!
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 6:09 PM
There writing styles are actually quite different.
One possesses more of an academic approach the other a more pragmatic real life approach from long experience.
Then again, olde geezers have been wrong before..?
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 6:26 PM
I have no doubt about it. A couple of times now I’ve gotten into it with one of them and VIOLA the other one shows up out of the blue! Plus- MB4’s lame attempt at poetry and lyrics fits in pretty well with the pathetic poetry that Michael has written on his site. How many political bloggers have you read that write their own poetry? Plus I asked if anyone ever remembered Michael and MB4 ever disagreeing on anything…..no one could….
Yet they seem to agree on….well….everything.
I report- you decide.
FiveWays on September 14, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Oh gosh, oh no, that’s why I stopped watching TV and came to Hot Aire…!
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 6:44 PM
Sorry- Gocht, I ain’t buying it. I’ve seen people change their writing style with ease. The MB4 style is more scripted and deliberate, and when he gets emotional he always falls back on nonsensical quotes and immature “logic”.
FiveWays on September 14, 2008 at 6:44 PM
Hey- I’m just your humble correspondent…..ack!
Sorry! That Jughead O’Reilly impersonation even made me a little sick.
FiveWays on September 14, 2008 at 6:47 PM
let me share some info with you that i have gotten from excellent sources within the DNC:
On or about October 5th, Biden will excuse himself from the ticket, citing health problems,
and he will be replaced by Hillary. This is timed to occur after the VP debate on 10/2.
there have been talks all weekend about how to proceed with this info. generally, the feeling
is that we should all go ahead and get it out there to as many blog sites and personal email
lists as is possible. i have already seen a few short blurbs about this – the “health problem”
cited in those articles was aneurysm. probably many of you have heard the same rumblings.
however, at this point, with this inside info from the DNC, it looks like this obama strategy will be a go. therefore, it seems that the best strategy is to get out in front of this obama maneuver, spell it out in detail, and thereby expose it for the grand manipulation that it is.
Well, I’ll tell you, if I were Joe Biden, I’d want to get that V.P. thing in writing.”
reshas1 on September 14, 2008 at 6:47 PM
He’s just tryin’ to “get your goat”…!
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Come on reshas1…
Isn’t this sortta like Bush will never let either the newly elected President take office or he’ll invoke his executive order even before the election, when he and Cheney decide to attack Iran…?
You’re just funnin’ me…
Right, reshas1…?
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 7:08 PM
Terrye:
Yes, me too. In my opinion, they are the same.
The writing styles are superficially different in a way that seems deliberate and done to try to appear as if they’re two different people.
Yep, I’d wager that they’re the same person.
SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 7:18 PM
That’s with your PhD in English, from Harvard or Yale…
Stevo baby, you’d be lucky to have set foot on the football field at Univ.of Miami, in Florida…!
What did you fail again…Basket Weaving 101…?
J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 7:28 PM
No, it’s a PhD in analyzing jackasses.
I can focus on you if you’d like?
No charge.
SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 7:32 PM
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