Battlegrounds: Florida, Pennsylvania breaking for McCain?
posted at 5:34 pm on September 13, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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As if the Barack Obama needed any more bad news, the St. Petersburg Times and Zogby both deliver cause for pessimism at Team O. Florida polling shows that despite spending millions in advertising in the Sunshine State and a delay in advertising for McCain, Obama is in worse position that John Kerry at the same time in 2004. Zogby has new polling that shows Obama now trails in Pennsylvania, a must-hold state for the Democrats.
First, the Florida breakdown:
Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.
Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America’s biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state. …
He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.
Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.
And Pennsylvania? According to Zogby, Obama is down by five:
Updated: 9/13/2008
Summary:
McCain – 49.1%
Obama – 44.3%
Not Sure/Other – 6.6%“This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We’re turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state.”
And in Ohio, Zogby now puts McCain ahead of Obama by six, a substantial enough margin to move the state from purple to red. Zogby, of course, is one of the more volatile pollsters, so any results here should be taken with a grain of salt. However, if McCain takes Pennsylvania and holds Ohio and Florida, it will be difficult for Obama to prevail in a national election.
Obama could hope to capture Virginia, which has eight less Electoral College votes than PA. However, Zogby also shows McCain up by over six points there in its latest polling of likely voters. He may do better in North Carolina than in Virginia, with two more EC votes, as Zogby has Obama slightly ahead by less than the margin of error. McCain has moved out to a similar lead in Colorado now, and has taken a seven point lead in New Hampshire and Nevada.
Momentum appears to have definitely shifted towards McCain. Expect the Obama campaign to focus like a laser on these battleground states and end any remaining pretense at a national effort.
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Fight. Keep fighting. Fight until Florida is deep red. Fight until Illinois is surrounded by a sea of red from Pennsylvania to Montana.
Fight like we’re down by 10 indeed. It’s only the third quarter, let’s get more points.
Red Cloud on September 13, 2008 at 6:51 PM
I heard on Fox that Palin will be speaking at Carson City, Nevada in a couple of hours.
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 6:52 PM
My inner Patton says:
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 6:53 PM
That site has Washington barley dem and Oregon weak dem, which is bass-ackwards. It also was Texas weak rep, when I thought that Texas would be strong rep.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Don’t stop MB4- keep trying to suck the air out of the enthusiam in here, troll.
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 6:56 PM
I live in a northern suburb of Indy in the HC (Hamilton Country – reddest of red). I drive down Meridian Street to work which is in the 7th Congressional district (Andre, take over from grandma Julia after her death, Carson…2nd Muslim in Congress). Since the beginning of the campaign, there have been Obama signs everywhere along the streets that I drive (no Repubs whatsoever). Only until the past week or so have I started to see McCain and Daniels signs. There have been more and more while really no increase (maybe even a slight decrease) in Obama signs. The Obama signs have been in demographically (and truthfully, economically depressed) African American neighborhoods. I don’t know what it is like in northern Indiana in the Gary/East Chicago area. That’s the only area that Barry did very well in when Hillary barely beat him.
I wonder how many dead people will be voting?
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 13, 2008 at 6:56 PM
Payback is a b!tch. I suggest you get a high colonic before November 4.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Did you go to tulip time in Holland this year?
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 6:57 PM
MB4:
I am just passing along the information. Hey cheer up, it is probably an outlier and your guy Obama will come through. He will implement the most liberal immigration policy in history and make you a happy and contented man.
The truth is my dear, they do not do state polls like they do daily tracking polls, some of the polls are old and some are local. I think we will have to get closer to the election before we see enough new polls to have an idea. And even then I am not sure the polls tell us everything this year.
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Nope. I moved to Indiana over 4 years ago.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 13, 2008 at 6:58 PM
All of them, most likely. And, strangely enough, every one of them will be a Democrat.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 6:58 PM
In truth in the last couple of weeks the Gallup daily tracking poll has had Obama ahead by 7, Obama and McCain tied, McCain ahead by 5 or 6 and everything in between. Who the hell knows?
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 7:00 PM
What would you expect from a Chicago politician…ChicagObama!
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:00 PM
The more accurate information we can broadcast regarding Obama, the more the voters will realize McCain/Palin is the better combination to keep America strong.
mindhacker on September 13, 2008 at 7:01 PM
FiveWays has gone quite mad. A few days ago he was certain that Michael in Michigan was my alter-ego or that I was his.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:01 PM
Agreed. I think it will be somewhat close. If all of the college students that registered Democrat and all of those in traditional Democrat voting areas do what they usually do (not vote), Indiana should still go for McCain. Although there has been talk of people splitting the ticket: voting for Mitch Daniels for Gov. and Barry for POTUS. Mainly it’s being propagated by a talk show host in Indianapolis (WXNT).
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 13, 2008 at 7:01 PM
Check out the JOHNMCCAIN.COM website to find an event near you
Mercy4Me on September 13, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Dr. Cwac:
After they passed the Voter ID law, maybe not so many dead will rise and vote.
I live in Greene County. Poor backwards guntoting Jesus loving inbred redneck provincial America.
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 7:03 PM
Oh I still do- and no one could ever recall you two disagreeing on anything- ever.
Oh and uhm……who did you say you were voting for again, troll?
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:03 PM
So do you think that I am this “DRywall’s” “sock-puppet” or is he mine? Have you and FiveWays been drinking from the same container per chance?
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:05 PM
As much fun as this all is…
The only poll that counts will be taken on November 4th.
Drunken Angry Clown on September 13, 2008 at 7:07 PM
We know that YOU have been swilling the water from the Kos fever swamp. ’nuff said.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 7:07 PM
Does your HMO pay for psychiatric treatment? If not maybe if Obama wins he will mandate that it be included. Hang on, help may be on the way!!!
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:07 PM
Let’s hope. Who’s your congressman? I’ve got the Republican (and somewhat detestable) Dan “Miss House Sessions to Go Golfing” Burton as mine.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 13, 2008 at 7:09 PM
All these polls are nice if for no other reason than to make the libs squirm. I’ll start really worrying about it after the debate in two weeks. I don’t see how Obama can really pick up support after the debates given his inability to intelligently defend his policies, his numerous flip flops for no other reason than political expediency and his track record of never effectively instituting any reform or “change.” I’m quite confident that McCain is good enough in debates to work these talking points in and force Barry defend himself. If Barry’s lucky the debates will be a wash, and given the fact that the media will be working overtime to elect him he may well be lucky.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the three debates are watched by more people than ever before and are worth 5-6 points for McCain. If that happens, lights out Barry!
hump1201 on September 13, 2008 at 7:09 PM
The more we show BHO as the hologram that he is, the enthusiasm will wane on his side and wax on ours.
I love the smell of dangling chads in the morning.
Mojave Mark on September 13, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Oddly, I have also noted the racist overtones on several other sites. They appear out of nowhere, almost as if there are a sub-species of trolls for that specific purpose. People can be having a spirited debate on issues and out of the blue there appear posts, directed toward anyone opposing Obama, that have startlingly overt and provocative racist accusations. Bumper sticker: “Race baiting is not a strategy.”
NightmareOnKStreet on September 13, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Going back to the Kos well again, huh? You are really out of fresh ideas, not that you ever had any to begin with. ’nuff said.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:10 PM
I still haven’t forgotten your defense of Joe Bidens draft deferments a few weeks back. You cited part of a news article that stated his childhood asthma- but you seemed to have omitted the part of that article that cited ole Joe’s autobiography where he bragged about his amazing feats on the football field and his heroic actions as a lifguard.
I’m sure that was all an honest mistake on your part.
So….who ya votin’ for in Nov?
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:11 PM
Go ahead little troll- start posting under Sigmund…..you know you want to.
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:12 PM
No, I’m thinking that maybe you are not registered to vote because you are either Canadian or not a US citizen. Understand? DRywall is Canadian!?
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:15 PM
Hi I’m MB4:
I take no position while attacking others positions.
I never state who I’m supporting in this election-
and I never hesitate to suck the oxygen out of the enthusiasm in the room.
But I’m not a troll….no no…never….
why, a troll is completely different than me…..really….
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:15 PM
Speaking as a 40-year Florida resident, I’ve no doubt the Sunshine State will go for McCain.
Pennsylvania? McCain has a better chance than the GOP usually does, unless we see 150% voter turnout in Philly.
Which is not out of the realm of possibilities, come to think of it.
The sad thing is, no one in the LSM will question it.
Marybeth on September 13, 2008 at 7:15 PM
And I suggest that you get some closer to adult level material and maybe some modicum of wit before November 4, as your grade school level attempts at either are getting most tiresome.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:16 PM
And THIS coming from a guy who’s stand-by defense of any troll accusations is “Gee you so crazy! You need medication. You’re paranoid.”
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:17 PM
And with that, the pot calls the kettle black.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 7:18 PM
I don’t buy the Zogby PA numbers — unless some other outfit confirms it soon.
The other three polls done post-convention in PA all found Obama up by 2 or 3 points.
ClintACK on September 13, 2008 at 7:18 PM
I will take that as a no to my question as to if your HMO provides psychiatric treatment.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:19 PM
oooohhhhh, gosh that was clever, troll!….wait..no…no it wasn’t.
Sooooo who you votin for this November, troll-turd?
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:19 PM
I think it’s remarkable – given his advantages – that at this stage of the campaign that Obama doesn’t have a 8-10 lead.
What’s more remarkable is the generic party identification gap, in one poll, has lessened to under 5 points. Something is happening out there that the press is missing. It mostly may be Palin; but I think it’s more substantive than her selection.
If the Republicans in Congress could find their rear ends, they would at least be able to minimize any additional Democratic pickups this election.
SteveMG on September 13, 2008 at 7:20 PM
MB4! Can you vote in a US election?
I don’t know why I even ask.
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:20 PM
See what I did there, troll?
I let ya answer yourself…….ooooooohhhhh….I’m clever!
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:21 PM
Rather a shame. You need help. Soon.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 7:21 PM
Hillary “could” save Obama.
She won’t.
Randy
williars on September 13, 2008 at 7:21 PM
Anybody but me hearing any chatter about Biden getting dumped for Hillary? Supposedly it’s really being considered.
Scott P on September 13, 2008 at 7:22 PM
Not likely. Hillary would not gather enough attention campaigning alone.
If Obama and Hillary appear together, it’d just make democrats wistful of what might have been.
lorien1973 on September 13, 2008 at 7:22 PM
Still didn’t catch who you’re votin’ for MB4?
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:22 PM
To do so would sabotage her in 2012. I don’t see her helping more than enough to say, “I helped”.
tgharris on September 13, 2008 at 7:24 PM
I don’t think MB4 is allowed to vote FiveWays!
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:24 PM
Oh we can only hope!
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:25 PM
You are just trying to put a thin coat of lipstick on the pig that is your lack of wit with that way overused cliche. You are about as much of a challenge as shooting a moose with two broken legs.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:26 PM
And uhm…..when does your wit finally kick in?
And say, that Joe Biden was quite the draft-dodger, wasn’t he, MBtroll?
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:27 PM
There it is folks- right out of The DailyKos…..
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Hope is all you have at this point, unless you can transfer to another HMO.
This is all getting very tiresome, so I hope that none of you mind terribly if I leave you alone for a while and pursue something more interesting, which at this point is just about anything.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Never happen. Two words Thomas Eagleton.He was replaced as VP by Shriver on the Dhimmi ticket back in ‘72 and they lost in a landslide to Nixon/Agnew. If you change VP’s you look hopelessly weak and capricious.
Mojave Mark on September 13, 2008 at 7:29 PM
You are just trying to put a thin coat of lipstick on the pig that is your lack of wit with that way overused cliche. You are about as much of a challenge as shooting a moose with two broken legs.
MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:26 PM
And with that, “MB4″ uses TWO tired cliches in the same sentence, thereby proving the point that everyone else is trying to make…MB4 = Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Delusional Democratic Traitor Leftist Nutbag Moron Troll!
End. of. Discussion.
Dale in Atlanta on September 13, 2008 at 7:31 PM
You need a new schtick- MBtroll.
Don’t let the door hit you in your sorry troll ass…..
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:31 PM
I don’t mind MB4. Have a great weekend. I’m kinda disappointed that you didn’t have the courtesy to answer my question though.
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:31 PM
Plus the fact that its been talked about so much that if Biden suddenly gets “very ill” everyone will see through the sham.
Elric66 on September 13, 2008 at 7:32 PM
Chicago poll worker on November 4th: “I see dead people”.
darwin on September 13, 2008 at 7:32 PM
No offense to you Vince, but I don’t know why people tollerate his crap.
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:33 PM
Hey guys, go easy on MB4, he is a big tough guy. Unlike that horrible guy McCain whose service to his country was nothing more than {let me see} getting shot down and beat up a lot.
The truth is MB4 is still pissed his guy did not get the nomination so he hates McCain, wants him to lose and beyond that does not give a rat’s ass one way or the other.
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Trouble is…you are out of ammo.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 7:34 PM
I got that right didn’t I? I do believe that is how MB4 characterized John McCain’s capture and confinement. getting shot down and beat up a lot. wow.
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 7:35 PM
This is all getting very tiresome, so I hope that none of you mind terribly if I leave you alone for a while and pursue something more interesting, which at this point is just about anything.MB4 on September 13, 2008 at 7:29 PM
If you didn’t need the constant validation, you wouldn’t hang out here to begin with.
Enjoy the Wii!
Chuck Schick on September 13, 2008 at 7:36 PM
Who was MB4’s “guy”?
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:37 PM
Dr. Cwac:
I am in the 8th District. Brad Ellsworth, blue dog Democrat beat out John Hostettler {R} paleo in 2006.
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 7:37 PM
Vince:
Hell if I know. Probably Ron Paul.
Who cares? sigh. It is all so tedious.
Terrye on September 13, 2008 at 7:40 PM
I’ve given three dozen chances over the last two weeks to explain his position and he refused. He’s just a troll coward- plain and simple.
I don’t like trolls- but I hate weasely cowards.
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:41 PM
It was Mitt Romney. I remember that because he was one of the guys I had to beat over the head the night that Palin’s planes landed in Ohio.
Sakaki on September 13, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Are you sure? I remember arguing with that troll in the pre-Palin days, and I was for Mitt.
Disturb the Universe on September 13, 2008 at 7:46 PM
Hey folks! I volunteered for a Victory Walk today for McCain, canvassing neighborhoods in Northern VA, it was a great!
4shoes on September 13, 2008 at 7:47 PM
Great job!
darwin on September 13, 2008 at 7:49 PM
Well Romney’s a nice enough guy but I think that MB4 is Canadian like DRywall but they can’t voice their opinion in Canada like they can in the US so they troll different sites originating in the US.
They don’t want to run their posts past the “human rights” commission because it takes to long to get it posted and they forget why they were posting in the first place.
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:49 PM
How’s NVA shaping up? I used to live in Fairfax and Annandale.
From what I’ve read, it’s going increasing blue. Will Davis’s seat go to the Democrats?
SteveMG on September 13, 2008 at 7:49 PM
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!! THE WINNAH! Great stuff!
*Any of you from Texas, my sympathies and watch it going back home! We lost 4 people due to touching contaminated junk on the Coast after Katrina, and several more to generators, downed power lines. PLEASE BE CAREFUL GOING HOME! Praying for you guys!
freeus on September 13, 2008 at 7:49 PM
From your words to God’s ears, my friend.
Scott P on September 13, 2008 at 7:50 PM
If you get twelve different people in here with twelve different opinions you’ll find they all debated with MB4.
I’m a newbie here- but I’ve read this blog for a couple of years now. And I took special note of MB4. That little weasel is a troll, sure as Joe Biden’s draft deferments were bogus. And YES MB4 is using phony sock-puppet names too.
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Well, that knucklehead has managed to completely derail this thread.
Anybody know a scenario in which Obama can win without MO, OH, FL and PA? I guess he’d have to win both NM and CO, hold MI and NH and take Iowa or Virginia too? Would that be enough, or would he need another state? I don’t see it happening.
I think OH and FL are pretty safe for McCain, and PA has a big bulls eye on it for both campaigns. This is going to be interesting.
forest on September 13, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Palin needs to criss-cross PA from now until the election and end every speech with something like “As one bitter, religious gun-clinger to another, please vote for John McCain.”
Kafir on September 13, 2008 at 7:54 PM
McCain should win here in missouri. We have problems with ACORN but we are watching that very carefully.
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:54 PM
I hate to throw a damp towel over the proceedings, but Zogby’s totally unreliable. He massages those numbers like Kobe beef.
DrSteve on September 13, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Just wait until the full effect of that unbelievable “McCain can’t type” ad settles in with the seniors here in Florida. There isn’t going to be much election-night drama from the Sunshine State this time around, not even if West Palm Beach prints up ballots that have Obama on page 1 and McCain on page 20.
I really wish Allah and Ed would start pulling the plug on some of these trolls. They’ve long outlived their usefulness. It’s not even fun watching our wittier commenters slap them around any more. Nobody wants to leave their posts sitting there unanswered like steaming turds, but half of our Blowbacks turn into endless arguments with idiots posting random insults and links to the nutroots sewer. Let’s clean house, open registration again, and see if we can get some feisty correspondents with challenging points of view, instead of Canadian insult bots.
Doctor Zero on September 13, 2008 at 7:55 PM
So, how are Greg Goode’s chances of defeating Ellsworth?
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 13, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Amen Doctor Zero. My apologies for my participation.
Vince on September 13, 2008 at 7:56 PM
Great. Another thread that should have been interesting reduced to a steaming heap by people trying to scream “troll!” louder than everybody else. Congratulations.
innominatus on September 13, 2008 at 7:58 PM
Latest quote from THE ONE: “We need to get rid of this Electoral College bullshit system before November 4!!”
alwyr on September 13, 2008 at 7:59 PM
Doc Zero makes a strong move on the outside and beats innominatus by half a length.
innominatus on September 13, 2008 at 7:59 PM
McCain, you crafty old devil!
He’s been lying low, letting the media write him off, only to come back with a winning strategy for an energetic second half. He waited for Obama to name a VP, then trumped him with Palin. He saved his money until he needed it. He did not interrupt his foe while his foe was hurting himself.
Bravo!
PattyJ on September 13, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Question it? They’ll celebrate it! AP and/or Reuters headline Nov 5: “Record high turnout for Obama in Philidelphia” without, of course, the voting population vs. voting numbers.
AZfederalist on September 13, 2008 at 8:01 PM
Hear, hear, Doc! Well said. (Although, truth be told, I do enjoy b!tch-slapping Alphie, Rywall and MB4.)
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 8:05 PM
I really don’t take Zogby seriously, but I’ve been itching to talk about PA because I live here and it’s the state that could put BO away for good. And with the other pollsters having the gap down to 2-4%, and Obama’s massive over-polling here in the past, and what people I know and complete strangers have been saying, I’m pretty well convinced McCain would take PA if the vote were held right now.
I’m especially anxious to see how bad McCain wipes the floor with BO in some traditionally Democrat areas I’m familiar with. The liberal pundits are all gonna be shocked – and then they will explain it away by saying we’re a bunch of racist, gun-totin bible thumpers, but it will all be worth it.
forest on September 13, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Hey, living in PA makes me no expert, yet still I can tell almost all the folks outside of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Johnstown are voting for McCain. Folks here disdain elitists, and Obmama is a poster child for elitism.
petefrt on September 13, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Obama has already done that for them – well ahead of time.
ManlyRash on September 13, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Amen. Get Newt in there and draw up a plan that focuses on a few specific national items, and then handcuff the Senate Republicans to it so they don’t wander off. Tie Obama to Pelosi, Reid, Murtha statements, etc. I don’t understand why we haven’t used a nation-wide campaign again since 1994.
Kevin71 on September 13, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Obama’s church at it again
Elric66 on September 13, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Well said, sir!
FiveWays on September 13, 2008 at 8:20 PM
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