Battlegrounds: Florida, Pennsylvania breaking for McCain?

posted at 5:34 pm on September 13, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

As if the Barack Obama needed any more bad news, the St. Petersburg Times and Zogby both deliver cause for pessimism at Team O.   Florida polling shows that despite spending millions in advertising in the Sunshine State and a delay in advertising for McCain, Obama is in worse position that John Kerry at the same time in 2004.  Zogby has new polling that shows Obama now trails in Pennsylvania, a must-hold state for the Democrats.

First, the Florida breakdown:

Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.

Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America’s biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state. …

He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.

Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.

And Pennsylvania?  According to Zogby, Obama is down by five:

Updated: 9/13/2008

Summary:
McCain – 49.1%
Obama – 44.3%
Not Sure/Other – 6.6%

“This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We’re turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state.”

And in Ohio, Zogby now puts McCain ahead of Obama by six, a substantial enough margin to move the state from purple to red.  Zogby, of course, is one of the more volatile pollsters, so any results here should be taken with a grain of salt.  However, if McCain takes Pennsylvania and holds Ohio and Florida, it will be difficult for Obama to prevail in a national election.

Obama could hope to capture Virginia, which has eight less Electoral College votes than PA.  However, Zogby also shows McCain up by over six points there in its latest polling of likely voters.  He may do better in North Carolina than in Virginia, with two more EC votes, as Zogby has Obama slightly ahead by less than the margin of error.  McCain has moved out to a similar lead in Colorado now, and has taken a seven point lead in New Hampshire and Nevada.

Momentum appears to have definitely shifted towards McCain.  Expect the Obama campaign to focus like a laser on these battleground states and end any remaining pretense at a national effort.


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Comment pages: 1 3 4 5

What did you fail again…Basket Weaving 101…?

And shouldn’t you be headed out to Wall Street tomorrow so that you could yell, “Jump, jump” to the traders as the economy crumbles?

You appear to be one of those who would enjoy such a sport.

SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 7:35 PM

“…No, it’s a PhD in analyzing jackasses
SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 7:32 PM

“jackasse[s]” is that plural…?

I only count only one around here…?

It was the University of Florida, Miami…!
Wasn’t it…?

Look at it this way; if the lead balloon goes up, you’ll have something to barter with…!

I’m stockin’ up on booze, ammo and gold…!

J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 7:42 PM

Look at it this way; if the lead balloon goes up, you’ll have something to barter with…!

I’m stockin’ up on booze, ammo and gold…!

Not me. I’ll roll up my sleeves and join with my fellow Americans and get to fixing things.

You can go hide in your basement. Hope there’s internet access for you to post your complaints.

‘Cause you’re good at complaining. Not much skilled at fixing anything, though.

SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 7:46 PM

I don’t stop by nearly as much as I used to…these days the stories aren’t nearly as funny or irreverent, the comments are downright boring and the troll level as reached epic proportions.

Let’s get back to Hotair Classic.

Dorvillian on September 14, 2008 at 3:39 PM

You said it.

There are a few new commenters who are terrific, and I’m not knocking any of you, but the trollery is no longer so droll.

4-8 pages of back-and-forth sniper fire is just not where it’s at. (This coming from me, who will engage in the sniping myself from time to time… “hypocrite!”)

RD on September 14, 2008 at 7:53 PM

What I mean to say is, trolls, you are succeeding. Keep up the good work! (And don’t let anything like your own debasement, lack of self-respect or netiquette deter you in the least from making the comments section of this site unvisitable.)

RD on September 14, 2008 at 7:58 PM

‘Cause you’re good at complaining. Not much skilled at fixing anything, though.
SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 7:46 PM

I’m the most positive, inspiring, individual in this whole group.

First we have defined the inherent and continuing problem; the last eight years have encompassed a totally despicable self serving and war mongering administration…

Second we now have proscribed new solutions; new hope and change, domestically here at home and a totally multilateral approach to our friends and neighbors abroad…!

You say…?

J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 8:03 PM

Everytime I see the Sarah P. as Rosie the riveter poster it occurs to me that she’s not just flexing her bicep, she’s actually giving the dems and the MSM a rude gesture. They’re just too obtuse to recognize it for what it is. The trolls sniping here may want to take a closer look. It may give them something else to whine about.

BadDogMN on September 14, 2008 at 8:08 PM

J:

Don’t you have a life?

Terrye on September 14, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Speaking of war mongering I hear that Obama is planning on kicking some ass in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now there is a quagmire.

Terrye on September 14, 2008 at 8:10 PM

You say…?

Sorry, I have no idea as to what “proscribed new solutions” means.

Proscribed?

What new solutions are you (or whoever) offering?

“Totally mutilateral approach to our…”

What language is this? These are words throw together in search of an idea. This sounds like a EU policy statement.

Sorry, but this is just gibberish.

SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Don’t you have a life?

He certainly doesn’t have one that involves the English language, that’s for sure.

His post sounded like an EU policy statement. “Totally multilateral approach”…?

SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 8:16 PM

I think the main point is to make the comment section such a drag no one wants to be here.

Terrye on September 14, 2008 at 8:22 PM

Just an observation/question:

Does envy for the type of debate that usually occurs on this site, play a role in the sudden influx of a certain type of poster that is so full of rage that they want to drag the comment section at HA into the gutter where they came from?

Saltysam on September 14, 2008 at 8:33 PM

Dorvillian on September 14, 2008 at 3:39 PM

RD on September 14, 2008 at 7:53 PM

So it’s only hymns from the choir you want to hear…?

Folks as difficult as it may be… I’ll “cease and desist” for twelve hours…!

That would be until, 15, 2008 at 0753 AM

Buck ‘er up folks…!

No more “jerkbah” J_Gocht to deal with…!

J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 8:41 PM

The magnificent bastard himself is showing NC up 12 for McCain.

While I understand his methodology.

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate. There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Why he shows NC solid red is confusing to me. Anyone have any explanation?

F15Mech on September 14, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Interesting to hear some people in Wisconsin remarking that their voter-roll issues have been cleaned up since the last election. Wisconsin is another one of those states the Dems can only carry if their vote-fraud machine is firing on all cylinders. It will be a healthy sign for the political health of the country if this election ends with some ACORN guys in orange jumpsuits, doing the perp walk. Preferably in October.

It seems to me that in modern Presidential elections, at least post-Watergate, the Democrats have never carried an election unless they were up 10+ points in the week after the conventions. There always seems to be a steady tidal pressure toward the GOP as Election Day draws closer. Even Clinton-Dole ’96 wasn’t quite the blowout it seemed it would be, and most of the Republican winners, from Reagan forward, have overcome double-digit poll deficits going into September. Has anyone got the August poll vs. November exit-poll numbers to prove that out? If the data back it up, it would be an interesting commentary on the effects of media bias (which seems to burn hot but short, and peak too early in its benefits to the Democrats) and the tendency of certain demographics to tell pollsters they plan to vote for the culturally-approved “hip” candidate, but then skipping the election itself, or even changing their minds in the solitude of the voting booth.

Doctor Zero on September 14, 2008 at 10:45 PM

Why he shows NC solid red is confusing to me. Anyone have any explanation?

F15Mech on September 14, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Is this a trick question?

McCain is up 12% in North Carolina; Red is the electoral “color” for GOP; therefore, he is showing it Red because he thinks 12% is a pretty safe lead.

What do I win?

Jaibones on September 14, 2008 at 11:00 PM

it would be an interesting commentary on the effects of media bias (which seems to burn hot but short, and peak too early in its benefits to the Democrats) and the tendency of certain demographics to tell pollsters they plan to vote for the culturally-approved “hip” candidate, but then skipping the election itself, or even changing their minds in the solitude of the voting booth.

Doctor Zero on September 14, 2008 at 10:45 PM

Media bias plays a big role no doubt, but I would also point out that many people normally only pay much attention to elections shortly before they go to vote. Polling these people before the fall is an exercise in futility.

18-1 on September 14, 2008 at 11:07 PM

trying to figure out how to post links here…

SuperCool on September 14, 2008 at 11:16 PM

trying to figure out how to post links here…

SuperCool on September 14, 2008 at 11:16 PM

When you figure it out could you explain it to me? I’m technilogically challenged. :)

mrsmwp on September 14, 2008 at 11:29 PM

Not to get off topic, but after seeing yet another thread stretched out do to flamming, courtesy of Flame Warrior…

Rywall

alphie

Gotch

A public service message for better forum combat.

SuperCool on September 14, 2008 at 11:42 PM

Similar names, true, but not similar folk.

Mew

acat on September 14, 2008 at 3:55 PM

You’re right. I got tangled up between him and “Baghdad Jim” McDermott

innominatus on September 15, 2008 at 12:27 AM

Would it help if I tried to inject more parody and sarcasm…? Your call! – J_Gocht on September 14, 2008 at 3:52 PM

It would help if you went away. Perhaps you can share your unique blend of irreverence and stupidity in the fever swamps.

ManlyRash on September 14, 2008 at 4:14 PM

Yah, Sarge, why don’t you just clear out of these parts. Didn’t they teach you to respect George S. Patton’s reincarnation while you were in the U.S. Army Special Forces? Did you drink too much Ba Muoi Ba in Nam or what?

MB4 on September 15, 2008 at 5:09 AM

Terrye:

Could MB4 and Michael be one and the same? I must admit it had occured to me.

Yes, me too. In my opinion, they are the same.

The writing styles are superficially different in a way that seems deliberate and done to try to appear as if they’re two different people.

Yep, I’d wager that they’re the same person.

SteveMG on September 14, 2008 at 7:18 PM

You fracken idiots are beyond stupid. The shallow end of the gene pool if ever there was one. Michael writes like an English Professor and I went to school on an Indian Reservation.

MB4 on September 15, 2008 at 5:14 AM

Five WAys:

Could MB4 and Michael be one and the same? I must admit it had occured to me.

Terrye on September 14, 2008 at 5:55 PM

I have no doubt about it. A couple of times now I’ve gotten into it with one of them and VIOLA the other one shows up out of the blue! Plus- MB4’s lame attempt at poetry and lyrics fits in pretty well with the pathetic poetry that Michael has written on his site. How many political bloggers have you read that write their own poetry? Plus I asked if anyone ever remembered Michael and MB4 ever disagreeing on anything…..no one could….
Yet they seem to agree on….well….everything.

I report- you decide.

FiveWays on September 14, 2008 at 6:38 PM

You report? You should report to a mental institution ASAP! STAT! You have got to be not only delusional but the #uckin dumbest guy on the planet!

MB4 on September 15, 2008 at 5:20 AM

I have a confession to make folks. My conscience is starting to bother me so I have to get this off my chest if I am ever going to sleep again. I have fooled you all big time. Not only am I Michael in Michigan, but and here comes the really good part, I am also FiveWays, Terrye and Manlyrash. And the Queen of Spain.

MB4 on September 15, 2008 at 5:24 AM

Oh, and I am also SteveMG and George the Third. There now I feel so much better.

MB4 on September 15, 2008 at 5:31 AM

US economic policy under the Bush administration is a four step process…

1] Borrow money from China.
2] Run it through our crooked and crumbling banking system.
3] Throw 700 billion into the rat hole of Iraq.
3] Give another 700 billion a year to Saudi Arabia for lack of an energy policy of our own…!

Helluva job Dubyah…!

I’m votin’ for more of the same with McCain…!

J_Gocht on September 15, 2008 at 7:53 AM

If one clicks through on the Zogby data…say for Indiana…you’ll see that some of the states are based on very old data. Indiana is listed as “purple” based on a poll conducted from June 11 to 30 that had McCain up 40% to 39% with Bob Barr at 7%. Hmmm…wonder if those number would be different today?

MattB on September 15, 2008 at 8:02 AM

A public service message for better forum combat.
SuperCool on September 14, 2008 at 11:42 PM

Good morning Super…

I’ll do my darnest to hold “Loopy’s” battle flag proud, high and on point for the rest of the squad…!

J_Gocht on September 15, 2008 at 8:12 AM

Pretty excited about this news. I now live in the Conservative Bible Belt but I used to live in Pittsburgh, PA. I’m considering moving back to cast my vote :)

bethany on September 15, 2008 at 8:50 AM

I took a trip last week to Gettysburg and the Flight 93 memorial. We traveled thru the heartland toward Gettysburg and saw more signs for Mccain then Obama. There were more in the city of Gettysburg then in the countryside for sure.

When we went to the Flight 93 memorial, which was a day before 9/11 and John McCain’s visit….we could tell it is republican territory. Im pretty optimistic that they will carry Pa…the only worry is Philidelphia.

becki51758 on September 15, 2008 at 8:55 AM

Oh yes…Pittsburgh and the surrounding areas usually run republican. But, its Harrisburgh and Philly that could kill it.

bethany on September 15, 2008 at 8:58 AM

becki51758 on September 15, 2008 at 8:55 AM

bethany on September 15, 2008 at 8:58 AM

Too much of a selfserving neocon dynasty…

Bush 41 then Bush 43 and now McBush 44…?
Had enough…?

Besides; they luv Joe Biden in Pennsylvania…

J_Gocht on September 15, 2008 at 9:22 AM

Bush 41 then Bush 43 and now McBush 44…?
Had enough…?

better than ObaCarter 44.

Besides; they luv Joe Biden in Pennsylvania…

a plagiarizing racist..ie a typical democrat, whats not to love?

right4life on September 15, 2008 at 2:50 PM

Comment pages: 1 3 4 5