Rasmussen: McCain moves out to the lead
posted at 11:55 am on September 12, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The Rasmussen daily tracking poll finally shows John McCain getting the post-convention bounce that has appeared in almost every other poll. Calling the sudden three-point jump “unusual”, it demonstrates that the shift in the race has become more substantial than merely a convention bounce. McCain and Sarah Palin have changed the dynamics of this campaign, and Barack Obama simply hasn’t yet found a response:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.
McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied.
It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.
How bad is the crisis? Rasmussen now has the state of Washington as a toss-up, with Obama’s lead in the traditionally blue state down to only two points. Only a month ago, Obama led by twelve and didn’t even break a sweat. Now he trails among independents by five points, and he has lost six points among Democrats.
If Obama can’t hold Washington, he will have a very difficult time winning the election. Moreover, it’s a bellwether for his eroding national standing in this race, and the erosion will only accelerate as long as Obama cannot demonstrate why he is an agent of change with no record of it, and why reformers like McCain and Palin with actual records of change somehow don’t measure up. The Palin selection has stolen his theme, and Obama has been left flailing.
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40 states. I can smell it!
lorien1973 on September 12, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Washington is an Alaskan wannabe…this will be Palin’s state.
When McCain and Palin go there to campaign…buh bye Obama.
right2bright on September 12, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Should be interesting to see how some of the other Blue states start to poll, like Massachusetts and even the 50th State. If it tightens in those two places, Barry’s in trouble.
Del Dolemonte on September 12, 2008 at 12:00 PM
Change!
iurockhead on September 12, 2008 at 12:00 PM
Sarah’Cuda!!!!!
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:00 PM
The more the public learns about Osama Obama, the farther he will fall. All but the farthest-left loons will begin to wonder why, if Palin is receiving so much scrutiny, the Boy Wonder gets a pass.
This could turn into a landslide.
MrScribbler on September 12, 2008 at 12:01 PM
I’m enjoying watching Obama’s consternation. He really thought he was just going to stroll into the White House with throngs of adoring followers tossing rose petals at his feet and bowing as he passed by.
Welcome to the real world, Barry.
AZCoyote on September 12, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Alaskan wannabe? I hadn’t thought of Washington quite that way. Maybe that’s because I live on the Seattle side.
I would LOVE to see them win here. It would be nice to see King County get its butt kicked for a change.
capitalist piglet on September 12, 2008 at 12:02 PM
That’s my state baby!!
nickj116 on September 12, 2008 at 12:02 PM
As my son likes to say:
ROFL like a waffle.
(Not Waffle’s, he’s never ROFL’d in his life.)
I’m a Palindrome!
y2church on September 12, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Suck it Evergreen College!
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Isn’t OR more red than WA? How is OR doing?
lodge on September 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Lol, taking a page out of Pam Anderson’s book, eh?
nickj116 on September 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Matt Damon is a skeered.
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Washington is going to be interesting to watch since there are so many Alaskans who live there part time and visit there more times then not due to the city, shopping etc.
Texas is the second highest State with Alaskans…. Florida is the thrid.
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Is it too early to say “George McGovern” yet?
bopbottle on September 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Thanks for noticing!
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:04 PM
it has to be RAAAACCISM
right4life on September 12, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Really? I’m Texan and I have never met an Alaskan. Very cool!
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:04 PM
When my lefty friends complain that Sarah Palin does not have the foreign policy experience to take over if something happened to McCain, I just smile and tell them that she could pick Joe biden as her VP in that case. It usually leaves them speechless.
bopbottle on September 12, 2008 at 12:05 PM
Mush!
infidel on September 12, 2008 at 12:05 PM
“Only a month ago, Obama led by twelve and didn’t even break a sweat. Now he trails among independents by five points, and he has lost six points among Democrats.”
Can you say Hemorrhaging ?
skree on September 12, 2008 at 12:05 PM
The Kos Kidz react.
ManlyRash on September 12, 2008 at 12:06 PM
I’m not resting until November 5
cntrlfrk on September 12, 2008 at 12:06 PM
This is why I am surprised that McCain has focused on the slights against Palin without using the opportunity to contrast Obama.
Damiano on September 12, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Yeppers and Texas is the second for People from other States working in Alaska… Oil Industry!
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Yes. There’s 8 weeks to go. Ultimately, my money is on Obama carrying WA. That doesn’t mean he’ll win, but we still have the debates to go through.
amerpundit on September 12, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Well done sir.
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:08 PM
I hope it’s not for this reason, but Washington State is very white, and more traditional than you’de think.
anniekc on September 12, 2008 at 12:08 PM
Behold!
Obameltdown is starting to spread!
pilamaye on September 12, 2008 at 12:08 PM
King County is notorious for having the wacked out people. Other then that, it is Blue Collar all the way.
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Barry had his chance and he blew it.
Simple as that.
You can just feel the narrative being written. If…if…if…if, Barry had had the guts and the fortitude and the belief in himself to pick Hillary as his running-mate, the Dems would have been electrified. Not only that, but he would have shown the country and the world that he wasn’t scared of either one of the Clintons. He could but them on his trailer and keep them in tow.
But he didn’t do it. He didn’t have the guts.
So he–only him, no one else–left the opportunity for McCain and McCain seized it by picking Palin.
What a freaking masterstroke and as we go into the home stretch and fully take the measure of these two men, what does it say about each?
Oh, sure, it’s never over til it’s over, and an asteroid could fall on McCain. But that’s nearly what it’s gonna take.
Barry had his chance, and it’s gone.
Typhoon on September 12, 2008 at 12:09 PM
State polls for last two days
Results Spread
Washington Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 47
Ohio Univ. of Cinci McCain 48, Obama 44
Thursday, September 11
Race Poll Results Spread
Ohio InAdv/PollPosition McCain 48, Obama 47
Florida InAdv/PollPosition McCain 50, Obama 42
Michigan InAdv/PollPosition Obama 44, McCain 45
Michigan Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 46
Colorado InAdv/PollPosition Obama 49, McCain 46
Georgia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 56, Obama 38
Nevada InAdv/PollPosition McCain 46, Obama 45
Wyoming Rasmussen McCain 58, Obama 39
Alaska Rasmussen McCain 64, Obama 33
Idaho Rasmussen McCain 68, Obama 29
North Carolina Research 2000 McCain 55, Obama 38
New Mexico Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 49
Maine Research 2000 Obama 52, McCain 38
Mississippi Research 2000 McCain 55, Obama 37
Ohio Strategic Vision (R) McCain 48, Obama 44
Michigan CNN/Time Obama 49, McCain 45
Virginia CNN/Time McCain 50, Obama 46
Colorado PPP (D) Obama 47, McCain 46
Missouri CNN/Time McCain 50, Obama 45
New Hampshire CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 45
Georgia Strategic Vision (R) McCain 52, Obama 39
North Carolina Civitas/TelOp (R) McCain 47, Obama 44
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 48, McCain 45
Florida Quinnipiac McCain 50, Obama 43
Ohio Quinnipiac McCain 44, Obama 49
Alabama AEA/Capital Survey McCain 55, Obama 35
William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 12:09 PM
People beginning to pay attention will look at Obama and say, “Yeah, I want change, but not that change.”
Giddyup.
BuckeyeSam on September 12, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Makes sense. We are having a boom in NCTX with the Barnett Shale natural gas.
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:09 PM
We have some VERY overconfident commenters. I’ll stick with pessimism- its a long 53 days to November 4th and anything could happen. Don’t just read blogs and post comments. Stay frosty! Work hard! Volunteer! Give!
lionheart on September 12, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Nice!! I may just have to use that!
nickj116 on September 12, 2008 at 12:10 PM
I don’t know about Oregon. Oregon has the lowest percentage of people that go to church in the country. That’s not to say that Oregonians can’t be traditional and not go to church, but I always thought Oregon was pretty liberal.
MobileVideoEngineer on September 12, 2008 at 12:10 PM
The emporer’s naked…and skinny…and…BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
AubieJon on September 12, 2008 at 12:10 PM
So when Obama was up 12, there was no racism, but now when he’s up two, there’s racism???
nickj116 on September 12, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Yep, know all about that too. The BF has land there. He is very surprised at the royalty checks he is receiving. I and a geologist friend are explaining to him what they are doing and how.
They are going to do a fracture here next spring. My BF is very happy about it… and I am too since he is a retired Vet and doesn’t receive that much on disablility.
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Oh now, Allah has gotten to you huh?
Not overconfident, but very confident here.
And why not? The debates have not even started and we know, via Saddleback, just how great Obama is when off teleprompter and given challenging questions.
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:12 PM
Rove was a genius because he focused on 270. No more, no less. That’s what McCain needs to do as well. Just focus on what you need to win the thing. WA would be nice, but don’t waste a lot of time there.
lorien1973 on September 12, 2008 at 12:12 PM
And Seattle’s the most unchurched big city in America. Man, the west coast needs Jesus in a big way.
nickj116 on September 12, 2008 at 12:12 PM
West Coast Nanny State….
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:12 PM
Very
right2bright on September 12, 2008 at 12:13 PM
I plan on doing just that starting tomorrow. Volunteering.
4shoes on September 12, 2008 at 12:13 PM
They’re gonna Torricelli him…
beatcanvas on September 12, 2008 at 12:13 PM
The last few months I’ve come to the conclusion that the Quinnipiac polls are garbage. They always seem to be the outliers. They may have been good during 2006, but this year seems like there may be some shenanigans going on at Quinnipiac.
MobileVideoEngineer on September 12, 2008 at 12:13 PM
They’re too busy talking about “Tsunami” Ike. Am I missing something, did an underwater earthquake form Ike?
Seriously, they’ll get back to poll-talk when it favors them. The next NBC News poll, perhaps? That’s how I know when the poll looks good for the GOP, the front page of DKos won’t touch it.
LastRick on September 12, 2008 at 12:13 PM
Sweet! I only have two acres, sadly. But my county has been historically poor and now the gas money is coming in. Thank you BF for his service for me.
carbon_footprint on September 12, 2008 at 12:13 PM
Oregon (realize these are over a month old)
Rasmussen 08/07 – 08/07 Obama 52 McCain 42
SurveyUSA 08/02 – 08/04 Obama 48 McCain 45
Riley Research 02/07 – 02/18 Obama 46 McCain 38
William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Ed, is anyone suggesting that Washington reflects a regional impact from Palin? The northwest might be starving for a localite, I’m thinking.
Jaibones on September 12, 2008 at 12:14 PM
No, it won’t be difficult – it will be impossible. Dukakis carried Washington.
We haven’t had a Rep. Gov since ‘84.
Editor on September 12, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Obama: “I’m scared. What can we do?”
Staffer: “Attack McCain’s age.”
Obama: “Good idea dude.”
20 Million Senior Voters: “WTF?”
fogw on September 12, 2008 at 12:15 PM
I think for awhile, they thought Bush may carry Oregon in 2004. I think its basically same makeup as Washington, just Portland is a smaller city than Seattle so less Lib votes
jp on September 12, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Can do RealClear politics state by states here
William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Everything they use to trip up Gov Palin just backfires,..The hard hitting questions in the Gov Palin interview, (just a guess here), but I’m thinking people thought,.Now why didn’t they ever ask Barry those questions?! Or maybe it’s the fake respect he shows for America,.. the flower into the 9/11 pool-like he was at a fair playing ring toss trying to win a fish!….just sayin
christene on September 12, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Wanna name me one single pessimistic person in history who ever accomplished a thing.
One will do.
Realism is a good thing. But it’s not the same as pessimism. Realism says that I’m confident of my ability to win but I know I still need to fight.
Pessimism meekly mails its surrender in.
Typhoon on September 12, 2008 at 12:16 PM
He should go to WA for a day, get a big turnout, and further increase the panic at Obama HQ.
lodge on September 12, 2008 at 12:16 PM
LOL
YOU Said it! Obama is dumb as a rock…. on uranus!
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Heh…they’re ignoring Hurricane Sarah.
ManlyRash on September 12, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Rasmussen also has NM flipping to McCain in its latest poll. In August down by 4 (44-48) in September up by 2 (49-47). So it’s moved from “leaning demo” to “toss up”.
Woohoo, my presidential vote actually might mean something.
The senate race is also tightening up, with Pearce down by 7 to Udall (one of the western “Kennedys”) after being down by 28 a few months ago.
rockhead on September 12, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Obama: “I’m scared. What can we do?”
Staffer: “Attack Palin’s inexperience.”
Obama: “Good idea dude.”
40 Million Hockey Moms: “WTF?”
fogw on September 12, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Ugh my Congressional race is head to head and they are on the second recount.
Yuong and Parnell, and Parnell looks as though he is losing. :(
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Obama has ran his career and his campaign on the strength of the color of his skin..
now that the race has gone deeper than that.. (I think the thrill is gone that Sarah is a woman) he isn’t finding much to stand on..
wanna bet he’ll play a race card again? (after pulling it out of his sleeve 4-5 times already?)
DaveC on September 12, 2008 at 12:19 PM
say goodnight EMPTY SUIT ELITIST SNOB
SDarchitect on September 12, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Flash
Rush 5 minutes ago: Do not dismiss the likelihood that Clinton-Obama discussed the prospect of Hillary for VP at their lunch yesterday. The Dems are in serious trouble, and they know it.
I can’t get rid of the very bad hunch I have about this.
petefrt on September 12, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Realclear has moved New Jersey from a safe state to “leaning” for Obama. If Obama is fighting for New Jersey it really is over.
William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 12:20 PM
What I meant was Washington likes to think of themselves as being a vast, open, beautiful, “outdoorsy” state. And nothing wrong with that, it is beautiful…just not as vast, open as the state of Alaska. When I visit there it seems everyone wants to embrace the outdoors (which is good) even the downtown metro people consider themselves “wilderness” inhabitants. But let’s face it, Alaska has shown it to be the ultimate “outdoor” wilderness state.
right2bright on September 12, 2008 at 12:20 PM
No worries, Mate.
Jaibones on September 12, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Realclear also does individual House race polls
Senate races are here
William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Good link! Look at the recent changes. Every one of them is in McCain’s direction.
lorien1973 on September 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM
I was thinking mine would as well here in NC. Then the 20-point McCain advantage came out. Wow. I’d yanked ads from North Carolina too if I was Obama — that’s not just being behind. That’s embarrassing. He puts the South in play, my foot.
LastRick on September 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM
If they choose Hillary, and they only have probably a week to decide…it is all over the the dems, they basically admitted defeat.
I don’t even think the MSM would get behind this, maybe from the interest of Palin vs. Hillary, but nothing much else. This would leave the MSM with egg on their face…supporting the “One” and having his most (and maybe only) important decision being the wrong one.
right2bright on September 12, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Can you imagine how that’d play out? In 4 years, Hillary comes out saying Obama is incapable of leading any further and she is stepping out to run against him for President. That’d be something to watch.
AubieJon on September 12, 2008 at 12:24 PM
This article has given me some significantly increased optimism.
Damiano on September 12, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Right I LOVE Washington… I have a blast everytime I am there and I did actually live there for a couple years. But the people who live in Seattle and pretend to be outdoorsey annoys me to no end.
Especially when they say they are going to do this or that and I ask them about the gear they will be using. One guy was such a jerk about it, he screamed WTF did I know. My Friends got up and said “Dude, she is from Alaska… she knows because she has done it.” and we left. A few weeks later that same guy came and asked me for advice. That is how Seattle is concerning the “outdoorsey” people. They think it is all REI good!
upinak on September 12, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Lol, this gets my vote for POTD so far.
nickj116 on September 12, 2008 at 12:26 PM
Slightly OT: McCain had a great line at the National Service forum last night.
He said (paraphrased) that ‘the approval rating for Congress was down to, what, 9%? That’s close blodd relatives and paid staffers.’ (big smile) The crowd loved it.
He has a good mix of humor, self-depracation (I think I used that right) and moxy.
Mr_Magoo on September 12, 2008 at 12:26 PM
Here is last 3 polls for michigan. It has turned into a battleground state.
Quinnipiac 09/05 – 09/09 1001 LV 48 45 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/07 – 09/07 500 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Strategic Vision (R) 09/05 – 09/07 1200 LV 47 45 Obama +2
William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Oregon is a low population, mostly rural state infested with immigrants from San Fran, Boston, New York, Chicago, southern California and Mexico that mostly reside in “Little Beruit” (AKA Portland).
Unfortunately, Oregon’s rural areas have significant numbers of “democrats” that, by any objective measure, should be Republicans but somehow manage to support the party that burns them on virtually every turn. It’s so bad you’d almost think they were black. Couple this with the urban areas that are almost outright socialists (and in some cases proudly are) which also happen to out-number their country neighbors and you can guess which way Oregon will be going this fall.
Obama stickers are everywhere, along with “war is not the answer”, “Bush lied, people died” and other staples of the Liberal standard bumpersticker mentality. It’s almost like living in the state of Daily Kos around here.
Browncoatone on September 12, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Remember when some idiots (who thought they were insightful) were passing along the BS that Georgia would be in play because of Obama’s post-partisan appeal & the entrance of Bob Barr into the race?
[Edward G. Robinson voice]
Where’s your messiah now?
[/Edward G. Robinson voice]
rjwest21 on September 12, 2008 at 12:31 PM
I see the piture and the song “WIPEOUT” is playing in my head….
CynicalOptimist on September 12, 2008 at 12:33 PM
How funny is it that Hillary was being fitted for a tiara and scepter before the primaries ever began… and then Obama does the exact same thing.
Chuck Schick on September 12, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Yeah… there is definitely trouble in paradise.
When the best that NYT can manage is Obama Plans Sharper Tone as Party Frets things are not going well.
So… Plouffe is wrigging his hands and wetting his bed?
BWWWWWAAAAAAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!
Damiano on September 12, 2008 at 12:36 PM
There was never any question about Washington’s sensible side. Eastern Washington! :-)
p40tiger on September 12, 2008 at 12:37 PM
If Obama dropped Biden and picked Hillary, THAT would be the cynical choice, the choice based solely on gender.
Hillary may talk about it, but I highly doubt she’ll reduce herself to a token, especially when she has more to gain by sitting out.
Sir Andrew on September 12, 2008 at 12:37 PM
If you listen really closely, under the roaring sound of the wind going out of Obama’s sails, you’ll hear a dinstinctive cackling. It’s music to my ears.
Anna on September 12, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Don’t you mean State of Lincoln?
Browncoatone on September 12, 2008 at 12:40 PM
Maine Research 2000 Obama 52, McCain 38
New Hampshire CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 45
Representing the liberal wasteland that is New England. I feel so alone.
KrisinNE on September 12, 2008 at 12:42 PM
And that’s why thry have tried every way in the world to destroy her. My guess is, the worst is yet to come.
BacaDog on September 12, 2008 at 12:42 PM
That picture needs a t-shirt….
They have just about shot their wad on being able to hurt the Arctic Fox, she’ll be at the point in maybe a week where she’ll only be able to hurt herself.
In three weeks even the KOSsacks will be tired of beating their heads against the wall…….but Barry lost his mojo for good.
sven10077 on September 12, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Othuga’s gonna lose in a landslide.
VolMagic on September 12, 2008 at 12:46 PM
My collie says:
Get used to it. In the next four years, you’re gonna’ be seein’ things you ain’t never seen before. (KOS kidz: “Turn out the lights ’cause I don’t want to see.”)
CyberCipher on September 12, 2008 at 12:46 PM
I’m running out of places to put more pins in the voodoo doll.
Limerick on September 12, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Is it possible for The Obamassiah to be the first candidate to lose 57 states?
rbj on September 12, 2008 at 12:50 PM
The majority of liberals in the NW are from Portland and Seattle. These aren’t your typical liberal democrats; most of em are your granola-eating, black-rimmed glasses wearing vegans who dont wash their hair for months at a time and refuse to step foot in a “box store.”
I’ve lived in Eastern Washington State for my entire life and, like most blue states, the further away you get from the metropolitan areas, the more conservative it gets. That said, we do have a Democrat Governor and two Democrat Senators thanks to the inundation of Bay Area leftists who cant afford to live in CA anymore.
Blue_State_Blues on September 12, 2008 at 12:52 PM
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