Rasmussen: McCain moves out to the lead

posted at 11:55 am on September 12, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll finally shows John McCain getting the post-convention bounce that has appeared in almost every other poll.  Calling the sudden three-point jump “unusual”, it demonstrates that the shift in the race has become more substantial than merely a convention bounce.  McCain and Sarah Palin have changed the dynamics of this campaign, and Barack Obama simply hasn’t yet found a response:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.

McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied.

It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.

How bad is the crisis?  Rasmussen now has the state of Washington as a toss-up, with Obama’s lead in the traditionally blue state down to only two points. Only a month ago, Obama led by twelve and didn’t even break a sweat.  Now he trails among independents by five points, and he has lost six points among Democrats.

If Obama can’t hold Washington, he will have a very difficult time winning the election.  Moreover, it’s a bellwether for his eroding national standing in this race, and the erosion will only accelerate as long as Obama cannot demonstrate why he is an agent of change with no record of it, and why reformers like McCain and Palin with actual records of change somehow don’t measure up.  The Palin selection has stolen his theme, and Obama has been left flailing.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Still seven weeks. Just passing out some caution on the ‘victory disease’.

Limerick on September 12, 2008 at 12:53 PM

Blue_State_Blues on September 12, 2008 at 12:52 PM

Sounds like Oregon alright.

Browncoatone on September 12, 2008 at 12:54 PM

This is why I am surprised that McCain has focused on the slights against Palin without using the opportunity to contrast Obama.

Damiano on September 12, 2008 at 12:06 PM

The issues regarding the slights are relevant now. They won’t be next week. The contrast ads will be relevant from now till the election. As long as McCain doesn’t allow himself to get distracted with these ads, there will be no problem.

MarkTheGreat on September 12, 2008 at 12:55 PM

Yes. There’s 8 weeks to go. Ultimately, my money is on Obama carrying WA. That doesn’t mean he’ll win, but we still have the debates to go through.

amerpundit on September 12, 2008 at 12:07 PM

Going from 12 points up to 2 points up, does mean that Obama will have to put money into WA if he wants to preserve it. And given his recent fund raising problems, he doesn’t have money to spend everywhere.

MarkTheGreat on September 12, 2008 at 12:58 PM

I saw the suggestion that Hillary now accept the VP, but if she has any hope of winning in 2012, she’s going to refuse that offer now. Obama has a campaign that is self destructing and while she might help them win, if she doesn’t she’ll permanently end her chances. She has a much better hope that The Chosen One falls and she can go up against the GOP in 2012 without that baggage.

The biggest problem Obama has is his campaign was simply too long. Over time even with the MSM refusing to “vet” him, everyone got to see the real man, and the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes.

mvargus on September 12, 2008 at 12:59 PM

Is it possible for The Obamassiah to be the first candidate to lose 57 states?

rbj on September 12, 2008 at 12:50 PM

I heard the 7 imaginary states in Obama’s head just went red as well.

Chuck Schick on September 12, 2008 at 1:00 PM

AP News has a new poll out. It has some great details.

Just a breif run down

Terrorists have not really been trying to attack the United States because

Actions taken by the U.S. (United States) government
64%

In your opinion, please tell me whether you think each of the following candidates does or does not have the right type of experience to successfully serve as President of the United States

John McCain
Does have right type 80
Does not have right type 15
Don’t know enough 5
Don’t know 0
Refused 0

Barack Obama
Does have right type 46
Does not have right type 47
Don’t know enough 7
Don’t know 1
Refused 0

Sarah Palin
Does have right type 41
Does not have right type 36
Don’t know enough 1
Don’t know 0
Refused 0

Considering what you know about Sarah Palin and her family, do you think she made the right decision or the wrong decision to accept John McCain’s offer to be his running mate?

Right decision 70
Wrong decision 23
Don’t know 7
Refused 1

William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 1:03 PM

Don’t you mean State of Lincoln?

Browncoatone on September 12, 2008 at 12:40 PM

No, I believe the official secession name was “Columbia” but I could be wrong. I was young then.

p40tiger on September 12, 2008 at 1:03 PM

Rove was a genius because he focused on 270. No more, no less. That’s what McCain needs to do as well. Just focus on what you need to win the thing. WA would be nice, but don’t waste a lot of time there.

lorien1973 on September 12, 2008 at 12:12 PM

A lot depends on how fundraising goes over the next two months. If Obama continues to have fundraising problems, forcing him to defend a WA would prevent him from spending money on states McCain should win, but is weak in.

Given the way Obama appears to be panicing, a small investment in a state like WA, could cause him to over react in an attempt to defend his flank.

McCain’s got enough military background to know how affective a feint at an exposed flank can be.

MarkTheGreat on September 12, 2008 at 1:05 PM

Keep an eye on Biden’s campaign tour schedule. If he suddenly takes a prolonged swing to the coasts and increasingly appears more tan and relaxed and waves off questions or sends suragates to give speeches then we know he has already booked his Thanksgiving-Christmas trip to the Mediterranean.

moxie_neanderthal on September 12, 2008 at 1:06 PM

No, I believe the official secession name was “Columbia” but I could be wrong. I was young then.

p40tiger on September 12, 2008 at 1:03 PM

Given the number of times Eastern Washington has made the effort I’m sure they’ve gone through a number of names. What about five times now?

You know, I think E. Oregon and E. Washington have more in common than W. Oregon and E. Oregon or E. Washington and W. Washington do. Maybe we should get E. Washington and E. Oregon together and tell Salem & Olympia (or more appropriately, Portland & Seattle) to take a flying leap.

Browncoatone on September 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM

They’re too busy talking about “Tsunami” Ike. Am I missing something, did an underwater earthquake form Ike? – LastRick on September 12, 2008 at 12:13 PM

My guess is they are referring to the storm surge. I saw a graphic last night that showed the surge litterally swamping Houston, if Ike comes in as predicted. Looked pretty similar to the surge caused by a tsunami.

mwdiver on September 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM

The Palin selection has stolen his theme, and Obama has been left flailing.

I haven’t heard one pundit who isn’t taken by surprise that Palin had as much effect as she has had. I attribute it to two factors. First, McCain finally gave the GOP base somebody they could be proud of supporting. A vote for McCain makes most Republicans feel dirty but a vote for McCain/Palin is making history. Secondly, putting Palin on the ticket gives likely Democrat voters underwhelmed by Obama a reason to vote for the Republican.

McCain’s selection of Palin is either pure political genius (never before in evidence) or a mere fluke. In either case, it’s working well.

highhopes on September 12, 2008 at 1:10 PM

It would seem that Obama is going to lack the funds to dig himself out of the hole he is in.

ctmom on September 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM

Browncoatone on September 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM

Sounds good to me, but without their ports and industry, we’d be one of the poorest states in the land. Westies: we need ‘em to pave our roads, they need us to feed ‘em.

p40tiger on September 12, 2008 at 1:14 PM

In three weeks even the KOSsacks will be tired of beating their heads against the wall…….but Barry lost his mojo for good.

sven10077 on September 12, 2008 at 12:45 PM

Most, yes, because it’s just being part of the in-crowd for them. But even though it may seem impossible, I worry that the dead enders will become exponentially more unhinged.

Loxodonta on September 12, 2008 at 1:16 PM

mwdiver on September 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM

I know it’s OT but Galveston is already getting pounded and the storm is still 12-15 hours out. Just know on FOX4 Geraldo declared the evac ‘successful’ just before the Galveston fire chief said 1/4 of the residents decided to stay.

Limerick on September 12, 2008 at 1:17 PM

Browncoatone on September 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM

I think combining Eastern Washington and Eastern Oregon is a pretty good idea as long as we don’t have to adopt Oregon’s state income tax!

Blue_State_Blues on September 12, 2008 at 1:19 PM

Obama stickers are everywhere, along with “war is not the answer”, “Bush lied, people died” and other staples of the Liberal standard bumpersticker mentality. It’s almost like living in the state of Daily Kos around here.

100% correct, Sir! I live in Bend and the dynamics of this state are incredible. The Peoples Rebublics of Eugene, Corvailis and Portland dominate the state’s politics and social trends. I believe that Oregon should be two states – split it right down the spine of the Cascade Mountains. Then the people east of the mountains would really have a voice.

This State has no chance at turning red. And don’t get me started on that RINO Gordon Smith…wimpy bastard is running ads on how he “cooperates” with Barry in the Senate. Makes my blood boil…

Agent of the Cross on September 12, 2008 at 1:20 PM

Sounds good to me, but without their ports and industry, we’d be one of the poorest states in the land. Westies: we need ‘em to pave our roads, they need us to feed ‘em.

p40tiger on September 12, 2008 at 1:14 PM

It will be a lot easier to pave your roads if you aren’t having to pay all their taxes. Idaho and Montana aren’t suffering that badly.

MarkTheGreat on September 12, 2008 at 1:22 PM

William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 1:03 PM

So the Republican VP candidate trails the Democrat Presidential candidate by only 5 points on the “right experience question. Hmmmmmmmm.

Also, link please. TY

rockhead on September 12, 2008 at 1:24 PM

The wonderful, glorious, magnificent things about the poll numbers today are showing that people are identifying themselves more and more as Republicans.
The pollsters will be forced to change their methodologies skewing the respondents more to how it should be. The new methodologies will be a killer for Obama and the Democrats in general. If the pollsters are honest, and I believe they are then they will change and survey a more honest representation.
All the polls are skewed for a very large Democrat turnout now they will have to honest.
Want to know the shortest time frame in the world. When the new polls come out and the Obama campaign says “yes but our voters only use cell phones.”

Jdripper on September 12, 2008 at 1:29 PM

The surge will swamp Galveston Island but most parts of Houston will not be swamped, mwdiver, because the surge is expected to be about 20 feet high and most of Houston is 50 feet above sea level.

FYI–Gallup is now showing McCain leading by only three (down from five) and is mentioning that Obama had a good night last night in the polling. Three percent for either Gallup or Rasmussen is within the margin of error.

jim m on September 12, 2008 at 1:30 PM

Obama says: “We’re behind? Quick! Check the tires. Check the oil.”

My collie says:

President Dipstick.

I’m betting that our lipstick can beat their dipstick.

CyberCipher on September 12, 2008 at 1:32 PM

AP Poll

Its A PDF file

William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 1:33 PM

MarkTheGreat on September 12, 2008 at 1:22 PM

Good point. Our high business taxes already drove Boeing out, and many other businesses went across the border to Idaho.

p40tiger on September 12, 2008 at 1:34 PM

Agent of the Cross on September 12, 2008 at 1:20 PM

My sister lives in Bend. Moved there a couple of years back with her new husband. Dietitian.

Count to 10 on September 12, 2008 at 1:36 PM

Good point. Our high business taxes already drove Boeing out, and many other businesses went across the border to Idaho.

p40tiger on September 12, 2008 at 1:34 PM

Dino Rossi 08 !

Blue_State_Blues on September 12, 2008 at 1:38 PM

These numbers, if they hold even close to what they are for the next eight weeks, spell absolute DOOM for The One’s chances to win.

These daily tracking polls measure national opinion. They reflect the opinions of Californians, New Yorkers and the Starbucks bunch in the Pacific Northwest in greater number than in states where the race will be decided. This is so because those states are more populous and have much greater margins of Obama support.

Secondly (and sady), there is a Bradley effect. A small number of secretly bigoted people tell pollsters that they will vote for a black candidate, when they have no intentions of doing so once they enter the privacy of the booth. It’s probably not as bad now as it was when the phenomenon was named, but it is probably good for at least one to two points nationally.

Thirdly, the conservative base is more excited about the ticket now than they have been since the early 1980′s. When conservatives are motivated, there is no more reliable voting bloc in the free world. Conversely, liberals seem to have lost some air from their balloons. Even when they are motivated, their reliability at the polls causes sweating and heart palpitations.

Fourth, much of Obama’s support is expected to come from newly registered Democrats, in states where party choice is required at registration. A: Guess which states are more likely to go blue anyway, and B: Guess how reliable newly registered urban voters are on election day?

Fifth, another significant demographic Obama is depending on consists of younger voters. This is, again, not the most reliable bloc of the electorate. MTV has been trying to rock the vote for two decades and hasn’t so much as even gotten the vote to list a little.

Obama needs to go into November with a lead at or above the double digit threshold, or he will spend 2009 on the rubber chicken circuit with Al Gore and John F’ing Kerry.

GulfCoastBamaFan on September 12, 2008 at 1:48 PM

Keep in mind crongress flipped on some close GOP seats oing the dems way. If that reverses Nancy Pelosi wont be speaker

William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 1:52 PM

AP Poll

Its A PDF file

William Amos on September 12, 2008 at 1:33 PM

I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned this, but thanks for posting links to polling numbers.

BadgerHawk on September 12, 2008 at 1:52 PM

Is it possible for The Obamassiah to be the first candidate to lose 57 states?

rbj on September 12, 2008 at 12:50 PM

Naw, he’s got Germany locked up. At least I’m presuming that’s one of the 57 since he took the time to make a campaign stop there.

rsrobinson on September 12, 2008 at 1:53 PM

IF Washington goes red with all the latte libs there,its over for Osama!!!! Semper Fi

Marines for Mccain on September 12, 2008 at 2:11 PM

Going from 12 points up to 2 points up, does mean that Obama will have to put money into WA if he wants to preserve it. And given his recent fund raising problems, he doesn’t have money to spend everywhere.

MarkTheGreat on September 12, 2008 at 12:58 PM

Very good point mark

Marines for Mccain on September 12, 2008 at 2:12 PM

Going from 12 points up to 2 points up, does mean that Obama will have to put money into WA if he wants to preserve it. And given his recent fund raising problems, he doesn’t have money to spend everywhere.

MarkTheGreat on September 12, 2008 at 12:58 PM

And the 10% point jump is gigantic!

Marines for Mccain on September 12, 2008 at 2:14 PM

I wonder how the Washington local media has been playing Palin… They might have been giving Sarah “Northwest” Palin a free ride, and thus the boost in McCain’s numbers. Believe it!

Seixon on September 12, 2008 at 2:32 PM

Don’t worry about Washington, that was the state that had more voters than registered voters (indeed, even more voters than residents of many areas of the State) in 2004.
The courts there are so corrupt that they waved off these ‘inconvenient’ facts in fraud cases following that election. So, if the dems there have to dig up a million bodies from the graveyard to vote this November, they will do so.

eaglewingz08 on September 12, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Republicans in WA are fired up about the gov race since it got stolen last time. Even my obamatron sister in law is planning to vote Rossi because ‘he got screwed’ in 04. Theres near-constant commercials from both candidates and the GOP ones highlight the current gov’s spending increase during her term. I’m not sure if it will translate into GOP wins in either race but it sure as hell is exciting and nice to see the possibilities.

hump1201 on September 12, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Also we had our own run in with ACORN and I believe some people went to jail for vote fraud a ittle while ago. The state sec of state is a republican and i saw a figure of 500,000 names purged from the voter rolls. WA elections have been a joke the past few years so thres more pressure to get it right. At my county GOP convention the sec of state spoke and said his office was working hard to fix the states reputation. Hopefully he did a good job! Keep hope alive! Stand up and fight!

hump1201 on September 12, 2008 at 2:46 PM

“… [Obama] really thought he was just going to stroll into the White House with throngs of adoring followers tossing rose petals palm branches at his feet and bowing as he passed by. …”
 
AZCoyote on September 12, 2008 at 12:01 PM

FIFY. :-P

Mary in LA on September 12, 2008 at 2:56 PM

Now up today:

Rasmussen +3 McCain
Hotline +1 Obama
Gallup +3 McCain
AP/GfK +4 McCain
AP/GfK +4 McCain (with Barr and Nader included)

Dusty on September 12, 2008 at 2:56 PM

That Washington thing mroe than likely stems from a rather provincial possessiveness the city of Seattle itself has for Alaska. Seattle has always considered Alaska as it’s own pet territory and then state, ever since the Yukon gold rush. We have a bit of a paternalistic affinity for Alaska and Alaskans. Western Washington has always largely drove statewide politics due to numbers in the Bellingham-Everett-Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia axis. Eastern Washington has been more Republican leaning, much like the rest of the interior western states, but they’ve usually been overwhelmed by the (much) more liberal areas west of the cascades. I’m a Seattlite, so I know a bit from whence I speak. I’m gonna crow a little bit now, I predicted on August 29th Palin might just bring WA to the red, or at least put it into play. One can only hope, they have a solid, strong Democrat organization in the state’s largest population centers. I’m doing my part, I vote absentee there – I’m military stationed in Virginia.

JeffWeimer on September 12, 2008 at 4:12 PM

I wonder how the Washington local media has been playing Palin… They might have been giving Sarah “Northwest” Palin a free ride, and thus the boost in McCain’s numbers. Believe it!

Seixon on September 12, 2008 at 2:32 PM

That’s hardly the case. I live in the town that Governor Palin’s parents grew up in and our local newspaper smears her just as much, if not more than the other newspapers do.

Blue_State_Blues on September 12, 2008 at 5:20 PM

Straw Man, Straw House, Palin’s turned into the Human Torch, you do the math.

SuperCool on September 12, 2008 at 5:44 PM

I seriously doubt that Washington will go for McCain–Obama would have to win Seattle by less than the usual Democrat margin–I can verify that many Washingtonians who had been committed to Obama are now, at the least, back on the fence.

Eukardios on September 12, 2008 at 7:59 PM

I seriously doubt that Washington will go for McCain
Eukardios on September 12, 2008 at 7:59 PM

You’re right….. too many wackos in this state are still pulling for Ron Paul. If I remember right, Paul got a higher percentage of the primary vote here than in any other state. I still see the stupid banners everywhere on my way to work!

Knuckledragger on September 12, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Hey Knuckles, don’t be so pessimistic. The earlier commenters who brought up Dino Rossi have a real point…

Some background for those who don’t live an breath local Washington politics… Dino Rossi ran for Governor in Washington four years ago, and you may remember the scandal that was the King County vote counting. I forget how many times they ‘found’ ballots, but they declared Rossi the winner twice, and then counted again… just putting Christine Gregoire (D) over the top for the win.

Dino’s from the Rainier Valley/South Seattle… a neighborhood that is historically Italian, then African American, now pretty much mixed African American and Asian American etc. The ethnic vote is up for grabs for Governor because there is a real feeling of the Dems ‘taking the election away from Our Dino.’

How this affects the Presidential Election we’ll have to wait to see… but I wouldn’t bet against a Dino Rossi landslide, and a McCain/Palin coat-tails win as well.

A lot of Seattle Blue Collar folks have either fished in Alaska or worked the pipeline, we do a LOT of retail sales to Alaska when they come south. Seattle sends Cruise Ships up to Alaska all summer long. Point is, we have a lot more ties to Alaska than the Eddie Bauer/REI trailstompers! And Sarah Palin would get just an absolutely HUGE response up here!

Mr Michael on September 13, 2008 at 1:29 AM

No such angst in AZ about losing to Hussein. But I like it that way.

We’re Locked&Loaded For McCain/Palin!

So Bring It Barry! And you too Michelle.

We’ll intro’ you to some Real PUMAs!

Thing is, we call em’ mountain lions down here.

Maybe you can organize their community too?

Then you can call them whatever the hell you want to.

Teddy on September 13, 2008 at 4:48 AM

I, for one, would be ecstatic to see Washington go red for McCain/Palin, so I could then rub it in the face of my wife’s Seattle-burb relatives who have nothing at all positive to say about any Republican, who forwarded me the lengthy “Things you should know about Sarah Palin” e-mail from the disgruntled Wasillan, and who said Palin should be kept “barefoot and pregnant” (there’s leftist tolerance for you) where she belongs. On my last visit, I was arguing (really, elucidating) the finer points of foreign policy with the family’s 12-yr old (who says, “Bush is a bad man,” “I think all war is stupid,” “high gas prices are Bush’s fault”). It’s sad to see such indoctrination in someone so young.

Captain Scarlet on September 13, 2008 at 6:27 AM

Comment pages: 1 2