Could the GOP retake the House?
posted at 2:20 pm on September 12, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Talk about coattails! Gallup’s latest polling now shows Republicans within the margin of error on the generic Congressional ballot nationwide, up from a double-digit deficit just two weeks ago. The selection of Sarah Palin has energized the Republican base, motivating them to vote even more than Democrats:
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year. …
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The erosion began last month, and may result from a double whammy of sorts. The Palin effect may have energized the base, but the gain among independents may be more likely the result of the Democratic punt on energy in August. Nancy Pelosi shut down Congress rather than allow a vote on expanded drilling, a huge miscalculation with an electorate favoring that policy by more than 2-1.
This also indicates that Democratic efforts to run against George Bush again have failed. Gallup suggests that the Republican brand has begun an abrupt recovery with the transfer of symbolic leadership to two proven reformers, McCain and Palin. From this point forward, Bush is irrelevant to the election, and Team Obama’s constant “four more years” refrain hasn’t any resonance except among the already-committed Democrats.
If Democrats lose the House, they can look back to Pelosi’s adjournment as their tipping point. She may have singlehandedly transformed her party, which looked like it couldn’t lose this year, into a minority in the House.
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Never thought I’d say this…….Bless her pea-pickin’ liberal heart.
Rovin on September 12, 2008 at 3:20 PM
Oil rigs and refineries are in the Gulf of Mexico.
Because modern methods and upgraded technology have prevented ecological disasters in the Gulf, its geographic vulnerability to hurricanes, jeopardizing source and delivery, makes another good argument for drilling for oil and gas in multiple sites where there are proven, plentiful reserves.
onlineanalyst on September 12, 2008 at 3:20 PM
Aww.. you know you’d hit it.
fossten on September 12, 2008 at 3:21 PM
Hope springs eternal in the human breast
Kini on September 12, 2008 at 3:21 PM
don’t hit women, even ugly ones.
right4life on September 12, 2008 at 3:22 PM
Hey, Dems! Why wait until November? Let the bloodletting begin!
CK MacLeod on September 12, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Nice thought.
I think it’s time for another Newt-like “Contract With America,” featuring as many of McCain’s friends from both side of the aisle… starting with Joe Leiberman.
If McCain/Palin can hold in the polls, he needs to “ask for the order,” and say, “America, if you give me a filibuster-proof House and Senate, in four years, I’ll give you…”
* Voter / Election reform
* A balanced budget
* A tax cut, and major tax reform (dare I say a flat tax?)
* Privatization of non-essential gov’t services
* Open-checkbook accounting at the Fed/State levels
* Reinvention of American Manufacturing
* A five-year plan for energy independence
* School choice
* Term Limits
* Immigration enforcement (with reform afterwards)
* A national mandatory military/public service program
* A thriving democracy in independent Iraq
* Victory in Afganistan (and maybe Iran)
(We’ll leave off the part about the 2-3 new anti-abortion Supreme Court Justices)
VastRightWingConspirator on September 12, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Screencap:
fossten on September 12, 2008 at 3:24 PM
B/c here in Louisiana, we enjoy welfare so much.
TheHat on September 12, 2008 at 3:27 PM
Energy exploration should be giving the Democrats a colonoscopy right now and I see no reason why Republicans should be joining a gang-of-political-cover to help the Democrats pull their bacon out of the fire.
Nancy wanted this issue, let her own it!
moxie_neanderthal on September 12, 2008 at 3:28 PM
No, I just didn’t want to get banned.
Tazz 55 on September 12, 2008 at 3:28 PM
Because Bushco wants to destroy Louisiana – - especially New Orleans. Everytime a hurricane heads there, Bush sends his secret police out there to plant explosives on the levees, with the hopes of flooding the city once and for all.
Rick on September 12, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Somebody has got to start running some ads showing Obama, Pelosi, and Reid all together, ready to tax and spend and regulate (and whine) and do nothing practical on reducing our dependence on foreign oil, etc, etc.
rgeaste on September 12, 2008 at 3:45 PM
I sent an email to Rick saying I agreed and this is what I received.
Rick is no longer available, he has been transferred to a location where he will be re-introduced.
He regrets making an inference that President Bush wishes Louisiana to be detroyed. Viva la USA…
right2bright on September 12, 2008 at 3:47 PM
No coattails involved: skirttails!
michaelo on September 12, 2008 at 3:49 PM
It will be so so sweet to see the Democratic wolves fall on Pelosi if they lose the House.
Lehosh on September 12, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Screencap: “Thank you, Ms. Pelosi. I’m finished injecting the BoTox. How do you feel? Can I get you some chicken and waffles on the way out?”
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 12, 2008 at 3:53 PM
Soviet style 5-year plan?
No, thank you.
It is not governments role to reinvent manufacturing. Governments role is to stay out of the way and let the free market reinvent it.
Birch Barlow on September 12, 2008 at 3:55 PM
It’s popular to point to Pelosi’s decision & it’s certainly the straw that broke the camel’s back. Still, I wrote about John Hofmeister’s confrontation with Democrats as giving Republicans a spine to fight for increased drilling.
LFRGary on September 12, 2008 at 3:55 PM
With a Republican house, I doubt an amnesty bill would ever make it to McCain’s desk. Republican House candidates should start running on immigration enforcement: screw what McCain says.
jaime on September 12, 2008 at 3:59 PM
Could the GOP retake the House?
KentAllard on September 12, 2008 at 3:59 PM
I don’t care what you people say: I refuse to be optimistic.
It’s the karmic curse. I won’t do it. Until November 5th, I’m gloomy Gus … assuming an Obama landslide and Democratic gains in the House and Senate.
On November 5th, however, should I be proven wrong, I plan to stay drunk until Christmas, giggling happily all the live long day.
The Democrats losing Congress already would be truly epic fail. And so very schadenfreudilicious.
Professor Blather on September 12, 2008 at 4:05 PM
Am I allowed to HOPE FOR CHANGE? yes! Asked and answered!
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Which reminds me about how much I’m looking forward to McCain’s first state of the union address — when Sarah Palin snatches the gavel away from Nancy Pelosi (in the house chambers) and SMACKS her in the face with it.
My collie says:
CyberCipher on September 12, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Take a lot more than that…i think…
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 4:11 PM
Notice how the trolls avoid threads like this?
They’re busy kneeling before the Porcelin God, offering up their leavings in shuddering heaving surges
I love saying, “I told you so” but will not explicitly do so here, but…….If McCain runs AGAINST CONGRESS he will not only make his victory more certain and larger, but will push through slim but real majorities in both houses of Congress
He needs to turn Palin loose on Congress, to the same effect
Janos Hunyadi on September 12, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Ed, you really have to stop using that screen cap. Our IT guy is getting cranky ’bout the monitor replacements.
(Conversely, I could make sure I am not drinking anything when I click on HotAir. Nah, that would take personal responsibility…oh yeah!)
kybowexar on September 12, 2008 at 4:18 PM
From the moment of her selection…I have felt and stated the very same…STEVE…UNLEASH HER!!!
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 4:22 PM
PLEEEEEEEEEEASE let Nancy be blamed for this debacle, and have to retire in disgrace.
marklmail on September 12, 2008 at 4:23 PM
On topic – if the Republicans did take the House (please Lord, let it be so) They might do a better job of it with the president of the Senate ready to ride heard on anyone who gets out of line.
Doubt it would happen, but it would be truly nice to have a Congress legislating, an President who actually acts like an executive, and a Court that is judging – not legislating.
Our high school gave us copies of the Constitution when we were freshmen (Fort Worth, 1982). Perhaps it would help if the good citizens would read the thing occasionally.
kybowexar on September 12, 2008 at 4:23 PM
Stating more precisely. Whatever minor gaffes she may be involved in will be negligible to the positive impact she will have on those millions of us who already identify with her.
I’ve said this before, she didn’t get to be Gov. because some high powered political operatives were behind her… in fact THEY were against her…and she still won…
This woman is the most powerful political force the GOP has seen since Reagan…and I dare say…possibly …in the past century…You go girl!!
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 4:37 PM
As someone who is a Redskins fan, I can bet you big money that not too many people are missing Heath Schuler. The only thing missing would be Heath’s passes to wide open receivers.
bossk92 on September 12, 2008 at 4:42 PM
He and Sarah need to run against the entire Congress, from the left to the right.
Entelechy on September 12, 2008 at 4:47 PM
YES!!! I will SCREAM this with my last breath!
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 4:53 PM
+13
Right_of_Attila on September 12, 2008 at 4:54 PM
There’s one thing about HA that I can always count on — either the subhead for the story will make me laugh out loud, or the pic chosen will do it. Pelosi’s mug here does just that. What an eee-dee-yot! Epic FAIL coming this way soon indeed!
notta_dhimmi on September 12, 2008 at 4:55 PM
I think the fact that the Democrats did not keep one single promise they made has something to do with this.
Terrye on September 12, 2008 at 4:55 PM
Drill Baby Drill! Drill Baby Drill!
Egfrow on September 12, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Take this initiative to the mat. Encourage ten friends to vote. Take back The Hill. Take over State legislatures.
Mr._Chumpo on September 12, 2008 at 5:35 PM
Obama sure is delivering on Hope and Change!
Take back The House ‘08!
SuperCool on September 12, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Your supposition couldn’t have anything to do with the fact that, despised and slandered as he is, even by his own base of Republicans, George W Bush has never struck out at his enemies or his so called allies in his own party, and simply continues to persevere against all the whining and handwringing lack of guts in the Republican leadership, that led to the Republican brand being damaged, could it? That he is just tougher and more correct than anyone else who comments and spouts their BS opinions about how misguided the strategy was, or how poorly executed the tactics were? Because I haven’t seen any FDRs or Winston Churchill’s who demanded unconditional surrender of our enemies and total Victory for our side from anyone other than W in the last 7 yrs. That goes for supposedly tough R’s and so called experts on warfare who don’t wear the uniform anymore.
George W Bush didn’t damage the Republicans. They did it themselves by throwing him overboard when Dhimmicrats became the party of Defeat and Retreat, and R’s let George take the fall, because he was a big enough Man to do so for them, without complaint. That infuriated Rs because he wouldn’t defend the positions he took well enough to suit them, so they joined the other side in condemning him. Some allies to have, eh? I’d rather have the Poles and Australians on my team than the Rs any day, if that is how they support a decision to go to war.
Leadership, TRUE leadership, doesn’t take us (as a herd) where we all want to go. It takes us where we hate to go, but must go anyway, to survive, and to keep our Honor and Integrity intact. To protect our own citizens and change the world into a place which refuses to sanction homicide bombings of innocents and allows the Saddams and Kim Jong Il’s and Ahmedinejad’s of the world to terrorize and kill their neighbors, their own people, and us too.
Republicans lost their Honor and Integrity when their “leadership” threw the President under the bus, and agreed with a Dhimmicratic conjecture that he was a war criminal and a fop who was pursuing a failed war, a failed strategy, and making things worse rather than protecting us at all costs to himself.
Now the jihadis are dying in droves, THEIR “base” is losing heart because you cannot defeat a determined American Military, (so stop trying, idiots), and an example of hope and civilized conduct of warfare and an example of better civilized society thru democracy has been made because of the excellent judgment and perseverance of the United States Military, and our President George W Bush. If Sen McCain had been President, I doubt he would have done too much differently, and I can assure you, he would have been demonized just as W has been.
It ain’t about who is leading us now and whether we are going in the correct direction. It is about who is taking the jihadis side in every argument and working against American interests in every single case before us today.
There is a reason they are called Dhimmicrats. They would rather live as dhimmis under Islamist tyranny, than see a Republican President be correct and lose their power to his party. And that is all the last 7 yrs has been about. Dhimmicrats….Cowards of the Country. End of story.
Subsunk
Subsunk on September 12, 2008 at 5:48 PM
HEAR HEAR !!! Well said subsunk !!!
golfer39 on September 12, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Please, not with a picture of Pelosi headlining this thread…Puuuleeeese!
right2bright on September 12, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Question still remains; will the Republicans be able to make up for the 11 million more registered Democrats out there before November 4th?
Will Mc’s recent new amnesty ads swell the ranks of registered Republicans? I hear tell there are at least 12 million illegal’s out there, can we pull them in to register Republican?
Sarah Palin has definitely infused the campaign with new enthusiasm.
Yet I have just read on other recent HA posts, how many are slamming their checkbooks closed and holding their noses whilst voting GOP despite the amnesty issues.
To me at least; this doesn’t appear to be a very positive attitude or atmosphere in which to influence new voters to register…?
I know if you’re a Democrat you must be registered, I’m going to assume it’s the same on the Republican side…?
Right?
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 6:20 PM
Sorry, I’m waiting for Hurricane Ike (I’m in Houston) and I didn’t have time to read through all the comments. I am supporting William Russell via my contributions and I am a Texan. I’m getting a lot of campaign material regarding him. Russell is a great choice vs. Murtha. Help me get Murtha out and Russell in! Russell could not campaign before August because he was still military. Help me to get him elected by your votes and your dollars.
Neocon Peg on September 12, 2008 at 6:25 PM
I’m stealing that and running like hell with it.
Thanks!
Yakko77 on September 12, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Subsunk on September 12, 2008 at 5:48 PM
++++1000000000000000
tee866 on September 12, 2008 at 6:28 PM
Unlike Senator McCain…
Representative Jack Murtha has been a veritable hero for veteran’s causes and a true leader when it comes to assistance for disabled veterans, fighting to improve the VA’s dismal performance under the Bush administration and advocating for expanded educational and home loan benefits
Semper Fie, Jack…!
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 6:39 PM
Subsunk on September 12, 2008 at 5:48
How right you are on Bush. I predict real history (not written by leftist liberals) will portray Bush as one of our greatest presidents.
docdave on September 12, 2008 at 6:40 PM
This is how Senator McCain has possibably become the only real hero our brave troopers and veterans can count on when the chips are down…!
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Pfft! Idiot!
Neocon Peg on September 12, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Peg are you a cat lover…?
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 7:01 PM
The cover picture scared me. Now I ‘ll have to sleep with the lights on.
Irenaeus on September 12, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Exceptional post SS! Now can you explain to our Dhimmi friends how fire melts steel?
Rovin on September 12, 2008 at 7:16 PM
No matter how…they still won’t believe it! lol!
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 7:19 PM
You mean the pathetic human excrement that accused Marines of murdering innocent civilians in cold blood?
And it’s Semper Fi …..not Fie oh-most derelict one.
Rovin on September 12, 2008 at 7:39 PM
Just checkin’ to see if you were a Jughead, Jughead…? :)
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 7:52 PM
ahhh…read my lips…GO away…
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 8:03 PM
It’s “Semper Fi, Mac“, not “Jack”, and I’m pretty sure that J_Gocht hasn’t earned the right to say “Semper Fi” to anyone.
Neither have I, as a matter of fact. But my mother has — USMC WWII, 86 years old, still sharp as a tack. And she’s voting for McCain, for course! :-)
Mary in LA on September 12, 2008 at 8:05 PM
You idiot! It’s “Jarhead”, and you’re not allowed to say that unless you’re one too.
On second thought, please, please, go up to a Marine in a bar and call him a Jughead. Or a Jarhead, even.
Mary in LA on September 12, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Rovin’s only answered one of three questions correctly so far jerrytbg. :)
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 8:07 PM
It’s never over till it’s over!
JellyToast on September 12, 2008 at 8:16 PM
Mary you got ‘em both, right!
The second question was to know it wasn’t Jughead…!
The third and final answer was to know it was Jarhead…!
I still have to wonder to this day… what your dear Momma would have done if I had told her she wore ARMY BOOTS…! :)
Oh nooo…!
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 8:19 PM
My mom is proud to have worn Army boots. She enlisted in the Marines, and after the war she went to OCS and was commissioned in the U.S. Army, where she served the rest of her career.
The actual boots are in the top of her closet in case she needs them, right next to her service revolver. Did I mention she was a sharpshooter?
Mary in LA on September 12, 2008 at 8:23 PM
He can’t respond….he’s (((((shakeing))))) in his slippers! LOL!
jerrytbg on September 12, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Gosh Mary, all I can say is, I sure stepped into that one…!
Next time you see your Momma, give her a Semper Fi and a big Hooaah from an olde soldier that respects most officers on general principles but especially if they’re carryin’ a lead slinger…! :)
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Roger that! ;-)
How “olde” are you, if you don’t mind my asking? WWII vintage, or more recent?
Mary in LA on September 12, 2008 at 8:43 PM
US Army Special Forces, Vietnam, 1962-1966.
J_Gocht on September 12, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Getting back to the topic.
This situation, in which the Republican Party may re-take Congress also opens another can o’ spew.
Cindy Sheehan is actually running against Nancy Pelosi. Not that anyone expects Mrs. Pelosi’s minions to elect Cindy, but just think what that means.
SeniorD on September 12, 2008 at 10:04 PM
I’d love to see St Cindy of absolute moral authority in a smackdown cage match with Nancy Stretch Pelosi.
But the Republicans have to get really agressive about the economy and energy, and point out how two years of Democratic rule has put the economy in the tank (I know its still growing but that doesn’t get through) when Katrina and 9/11 couldn’t.
Iblis on September 12, 2008 at 10:50 PM
That picture on the front page looks like she is Dr. Evil’s sister.
Someone needs to photoshop her pinky up by her soup coolers.
91Veteran on September 12, 2008 at 11:09 PM
You must not forget that Republicans must win by 20% in order to offset the MSM lies and the Dem’s election fraud.
TimothyJ on September 13, 2008 at 1:23 AM
A useless comment, but….
Looking at the picture of Blinky just…
Well, between that face and a 1/3 approval rating compared to the Great Satan GWB…I dunno how to reach another conclusion.
Forget about her personal mission to save the planet, as if a decisively ignored role model could figure THAT problem out…
Harry Schell on September 14, 2008 at 2:58 AM
There is another way to look at this as well. I think a lot of the folks who have “slammed their checkbooks shut” will come around as the election gets closer and it because truly unbearably painful to contemplate an Obama Presidency. All that means is that while Obama has already wrung his base dry of contributions, McCain may have some possibilities left to get funds if he is savvy enough to tap it.
Hawthorne on September 14, 2008 at 8:36 AM
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