Fox News poll: McCain leads by three, gains 16 points among independents since last month
posted at 3:44 pm on September 10, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Obama hasn’t lost ground since last month — he was at 42 then and he’s at 42 now — but McCain’s gained six points since, thanks mainly to that surge among indies. If the CW is right and independents are currently overrepresented by conservatives disgruntled with the GOP but sympathetic to its principles, then the convention was a huge success in drawing them back. Current favorable ratings among indies: McCain 67/21, Palin 55/25, Obama 50/39. 40 percent of them say they’re more likely to vote for McCain after the Palin pick versus 31 who say less, again suggesting a rightward tilt. Note the lines here, too, especially on the experience question:
I’m skeptical that voters conceive of experience this way, as a package deal, but no matter. Obviously, Biden’s eternity in D.C. isn’t doing much to help Obama on this point, even with doubts about Palin weighing a bit on McCain (elsewhere, independents say they’re more comfortable with Biden as VP than Palin, 53/31). Besides, she has compensating qualities:
Thus dies the left’s plutocrat meme. In fact, I wonder if the most amazing result there isn’t Palin’s numbers but the fact that McCain trails Obama by only two among independents.
A little more Palinmania for you. I ask again, when will Biden be Eagletoned?
And finally, two questions proving that principles bow to partisanship, at least for a significant minority, in the heat of the election. Doubtless the GOP numbers would look very different if it was a Democrat who was dealing with Palin’s family drama:
The most amazing result not shown above? Palin’s favorable rating among Republicans is 87/5 — which is actually exceeded by McCain’s own split of 94/4, a result that makes me think that particle collider did do something weird to the space/time continuum and we’re now all trapped in some alternate dimension where Maverick has morphed into some Reaganesque conservative standard bearer. In fact, for all the hype independents will get from this poll, the dirty little secret to McCain’s lead is (and has been) that he’s more popular with his party than Obama is with his. Republicans split 88/5 between McCain and The One; Democrats split 9/79. Bear that in mind the next time you stumble across some breathless article about “Obamicans.” Exit question from a resolute pessimist: Are people starting to believe?
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The Mccain rally in Lebanon Ohio has large as well
William Amos on September 10, 2008 at 4:40 PM
Meme is all it was. Sarah is the lady of the people.
94/4 McCain. Heck, if we could convince MB4, alphie, a few Paulbots, and get Dave Rywal to vote from Canada, we might near 99%.
Entelechy on September 10, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Most people are not aware of this, but PA is very much a “Bradley Effect” state. The level of racism there is very high. Obama did not win it in the primaries, and he’s not likely to win it in the general, as the Bradley thing is sufficient to negate the Fraud Coefficient that favors the Democrats in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, especially Philly. Generally the Republican has to be ahead at least 5 points to overcome the Philly Fraud Factor, but not this year. You might want to place a little wager on the side on that one, make a few bucks…
philwynk on September 10, 2008 at 4:41 PM
I don’t want mass suicide on November 5th if Bambi still wins.
Illinidiva on September 10, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Gosh J_H, what did I write…?
It wasn’t a “smear” it was a “fabrication”…!
OK, you don’t like mine; what’s your definition of the McCain campaign’s lipstick fetish,silliness…?
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 4:43 PM
With all the number tossing, I will throw this one out (not that I agree with MSNBC’s take on it) but for the sheer reason they did it with Microsoft Surface…
Very cool!
SkinnerVic on September 10, 2008 at 4:44 PM
McCain at today’s the Fairfax, VA rally:
We don’t work for a party, we don’t work for the special interests, we don’t work for ourselves, we work for you!
Loxodonta on September 10, 2008 at 4:44 PM
“Not a conservative” is not identical to “a liberal”.
I don’t think anyone thinks McCain is more liberal then Clinton or Obama.
But the 80% is a weak argument to claim he is a conservative. He’s not. Those numbers are irrelevant when you don’t factor in skipped votes. Again the best indicator of a Senator’s views are the bills he authors. CFR isn’t remotely conservative. Nor is MCF. And these are signature issue. But hey, he’s got 80%!! It’s laughable.
Anyway, the base is reconciled with him, so no need to lie about who he is.
Spirit of 1776 on September 10, 2008 at 4:44 PM
“Nor is MCF” should be “Nor is McCain-Kennedy”.
Spirit of 1776 on September 10, 2008 at 4:45 PM
With Senator Biden next door…?
“In your dreams:…philw_…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 4:46 PM
Noted
Schadenfreude on September 10, 2008 at 4:49 PM
Yup. They reconciled with him so much that they made him the republican candidate for the election this november. The base voted for him in the primaries, in numbers more than what they cast for Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson, Ron Paul …. etc. But anyway, your obsession with criticizing anyone who tries to correct the record with McCain is noted. As I said, Have a simply WONDERFUL DAY! Buh bye now.
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 4:55 PM
No, we like McCain so much more now BECAUSE he surprised with the McBrilliance of picking Governor Palin.
JustTruth101 on September 10, 2008 at 4:55 PM
Correct is the wrong verb. Redefine is the word you are looking for.
Thanks, I will.
Spirit of 1776 on September 10, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Just between you and me, Loxo_; you’re much to learned and wise to believe any of that.
As for Virginia, I believe the Saint is wasting time there; those darn elitist Yankees are turnin’ my dear, olde, Virginny blue, dammit…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 4:59 PM
The best you can manage by way of a snarky response is a cheer for the United States. There may be hope for you yet.
ManlyRash on September 10, 2008 at 4:59 PM
As the 23,000 cheering voters who turned out to see Palin and that old guy amply demonstrated. At that rally she turned Obama’s earmark attack back on him and left him pretty bloodied. I suggest you check out one of the latest threads. Heh heh heh….
ManlyRash on September 10, 2008 at 5:03 PM
This is like Schrödinger’s pig instead of the cat. She’s in the box and it’s 50/50. What will you observe Allah, is she alive or is she dead? I feel you weakening AP. You’ll be optimistic in no time flat.
Sultry Beauty on September 10, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Manly my man. I don’t know what to say my son…?
With you; I’m darned if I do and damned if I don’t…!
If I put you back in my will; will you reconsider…?
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 5:09 PM
When Obama goes down in flames, I wonder if they’ll rename it The Obama Effect? Brobama?
Kafir on September 10, 2008 at 5:09 PM
No, it’s correct. He tried to redefine what McCain is. Into “not” a conservative. And that’s factually inaccurate. If McCain’s ACU score was 50%, then you could say “half.” And he’s more than ‘half’ a conservative. While he’s not “100%” conservative, 80% is closer than 100% than it is to 50% or 0%. To say that McCain is not a conservative, is not ‘correct.’ It is wrong. In other words, ‘incorrect.’
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 5:11 PM
You have the same blinders on that the media does. They don’t think they are liberal because they think they are right (as in correct) and therefore they think they are moderate and the conservatives are far-right crazies.
A 51% percent rating wouldn’t make you a conservative, it merely marks how the votes have lined up.
You think McCain is correct and thus a conservative. He’s not. He voted enough on the bills that he bothered to vote for to give him a 80% rating. Big whoop. For the billioneth time, the best indicator of a Senator’s views are the bills he sponsors. The signature bills are most certainly not conservative. Sorry, to disappoint you.
Spirit of 1776 on September 10, 2008 at 5:15 PM
People love that McCain chose Palin almost as much as they love Palin herself because it shows that McCain was telling the truth when he said he was a maverick. That’s what the high numbers come from.
Oftentimes we choose the candidate who is the least offensive liar; this time we have a serious choice. By picking Palin, he said, I get it.
After the gluttonous spending and the apologetic governance and the LBJ-style warmaking, perhaps, just perhaps, we are returning to our founding principles. All that’s left is to pray that that is true.
PattyJ on September 10, 2008 at 5:18 PM
Who’s she?
She of the “bridge to nowhere”…?
She who was “fer it” before she was “agin’ it”…?
She who then took all the earmark money anyway…?
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 5:18 PM
And you make crap up that doesn’t exist.
I quoted a post on hotair that quoted a site that calculated ratings based on votes.
And you are – again – using your opinion based not on fact to make things up that aren’t true.
Kindly don’t make up things out of thin air or pull them out of your arese to define what I think.
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Wizened one, can I run my posts past you first; for a spelling and grammar check…?
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 5:22 PM
Fortunately for us all, McCain’s bill are accessible online @ thomas.loc.gov, so I don’t have to, even if I wanted to. Which, for the record, I don’t, I’ve never been one to mis-represent.
And it’s not just my opinion. The Supreme Court agrees with me.
Spirit of 1776 on September 10, 2008 at 5:24 PM
That’s… “arse”.
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 5:25 PM
I apologize profusely for not spelling and grammaerizizing my comments to your satisfaction, J_Gocht.
*bows humbly.*
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Does the supreme court also say that McCain is not a conservative? If so, then that is just so FRIGGIN awesome. My day is now totally made.
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Damned all around, JG. Not a good corner to back yourself into.
ManlyRash on September 10, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Absolutely. Conservativism is rooted in the preservation of our founding documents and principles. Unfortunately with McCain they have had to step in to strike down parts of legislation that negates those documents and principles. But hey, he’s an 80%!!eleventy!1
Great! Enjoy the rest of it.
Spirit of 1776 on September 10, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Yup…the Arctic Fox herself, Sarah Palin…the next vice-president of the U.S.
What cannot be denied is that she killed the Bridge to Nowhere. Even Alaskan DEMOCRATS admit it. While she did not eliminate earmarks etirely, she reformed the process, vetoing half a billion dollars while doing it.
In just three years, Obama requested nearly a billion dollars in earmarks – about a million dollars every working day – with a nice chunk going to his wife’s hospital.
The more you struggle, the deeper you sink.
ManlyRash on September 10, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Three new state polls out today move John McCain a bit closer to Barack Obama in the Electoral College. New Mexico moves from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up,” North Dakota moves from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” and Alaska moves from “Likely Republican” to “Safely Republican.”
Mr_Magoo on September 10, 2008 at 5:44 PM
McCain will have two choices for SCOTUS very soon: Stevens is half-dead and senile, and RBG is said to be about half tumors, half flesh & bones ( no disrespect meant to cancer survivors )
McCain may make his own ‘Stevens pick’ a la Ford, or a find a New Hampshire never-married state appeals judge like Bush 41. But he’ll be good for at least one conservative pick ( almost certainly a woman to replace Ginsberg )
One ‘moderate’ and one real conservative is Far Better than two hard-core and bitterly partisan Leftards ( like Breyer 0 which is what Obama would serve up
advice: don’t try debating with “J_Gocht” : not enough cards in his deck……..
Janos Hunyadi on September 10, 2008 at 5:47 PM
I concur.
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Oh, and I’ve got more than enough crazy people on my own to have to deal with and reply to.
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 5:51 PM
The survey group was 41% Democrat, 34% Republican and 21% Independent. The last poll on party identification, as recently reported on Hot Air, gave a Democrats a 1% lead over Republicans, the closest in four years while this poll has 20% more Democrats in the sample.
Laurence on September 10, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Never mind Wizened One… I was just playing the jerk…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 6:03 PM
You “dah second man”, J_H…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 6:08 PM
*bows humbly.*
(translation: it’s all right.)
wise_man on September 10, 2008 at 6:09 PM
J_Gocht, check out Virginia.
Entelechy on September 10, 2008 at 6:13 PM
If I am reading these polls correctly, I don’t see any poll showing Obama gaining or adding to his advantage. I think across the board, in every state (even Ca and NY), McCain has cut into Obama’s lead or has overtaken him.
If this continues for another couple of weeks, Obama will be forced to defend what was once “his” states. He doesn’t have the money, resources, or time.
His only hope is to slam dunk both the Pres and Veep debates.
right2bright on September 10, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Every line addressed to me, must be linked, Manly…!
I’ve been letting you slide by, way too often.
I mean every line and every statement.
Just like I footnote mine…!
Documentation is the game and links are my second name…!
Understood, my son…?
I prefer the horse’s mouth if you do, on YouTube.com…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 6:24 PM
Hallo, Entelechy. Hogy vagy?
McCain will win every state that Bush did last time, and pick up PA for sure and probably add two of these:
Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon
Grandpa Gocht apparently belives that Vienna is in Hungary, and probably doesn’t know that Austria is not Hungary–because in his day, they were in the same empire
Janos Hunyadi on September 10, 2008 at 6:30 PM
For months I argued with a Puerto Rican friend of mine about the wonder of Obama and the certainty of his eventual triumph.
About three months ago I told him that Obama already had all the votes he was going to get; that he wasn’t going to be able to convince many others to vote for him. McCain, on the other hand, was made to bring in independents (which is why he is widely loathed in these precincts). Looks like my prediction is coming true.
CornFedBeauty on September 10, 2008 at 6:33 PM
Hallo, J_H, I’m fine how are you…?
Jó Szia, J_H…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 6:53 PM
Typecasting’s a real b!tch, idnit?
ManlyRash on September 10, 2008 at 7:42 PM
Have fun.
ManlyRash on September 10, 2008 at 7:46 PM
I have long suspected this. I live in a blue state and commute to work. In 2004 I saw many Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers. I have seen only a few Obama ones.
Disturb the Universe on September 10, 2008 at 7:49 PM
…or woman, for that matter…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Individually, with respect to any future profundities that you may be inspired to emanate or elucidate…!
OK…?
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Mon apologies…if necessary, Wizened One…!
I have the deepest respect for your time, space, circumstance and intellect…!
Thank you so very much; fore your profound topical and intellectual contributions…
Olde soldier sends…!
J_Gocht on September 10, 2008 at 9:12 PM
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