Crux Australis – Welcome, I was deployed to the desert with some of your guys last year. Awesome bunch of folks. Hope you enjoy the conversations here. Curious, what are the more popular blogs for Australian politics?

If Obama runs into money trouble, or even SEEMS TO BE running into money trouble, the response FROM HIS SUPPORTERS will be, “you dumb .” Then his money troubles snowball.

To a raving lefty, the silver lining will be that no future candidate would DARE decline public financing.

“It was Obama’s Waterloo.”

Just remember, those of you on the left, what Margaret Thatcher said: “The problem with socialism is you eventually run out of other people’s money.”

That gurgling sound you hear getting louder is the Obama campaign rapidly circling the drain…

Brother can you spare some CHANGE?

We need to recirculate the 2006 exchange in correspondence between Obama and McCain to remind people that Obama doesn’t honor his agreements, number one; number two, that he was against change before he was for it.

Jennifer Rubin makes (another) interesting point: experience-poor Obama has touted his campaign as proof of his executive abilities:”Well, my understanding is that Governor Palin’s town of Wasilla has, I think, 50 employees. We’ve got 2,500 in this …

I don’t think McCain is in danger of winning the popular vote and then losing the electoral college. Obama is most likely going to have landslide level wins in Illinois, New York and California (3 states with large cities), which will keep the popular vote close. McCain has most of the smaller states and much of the south already. Right now there are really maybe 8-10 states which will be fought over, and most were (D) states last election

Rasmussen had some post-convention state polls up last night:

OH McCain 51 Obama 44
VA McCain 49 Obama 47
FL McCain 48 Obama 48
PA McCain 45 Obama 47
CO McCain 46 Obama 49

McCain absolutely NEEDS Florida to win, so the tie there could be trouble, and McCain might need to spend some money and time there. PA is close, and could be flipped if McCain could win the Philly suburbs. Philadelphia is heavily Democrat, but a high turnout in conservative areas (northeast and central PA, the Pittsburgh suburbs) plus the Philly suburbs could win it for McCain.

Gallup also had some McCain support numbers by region:

East 44%
Midwest 46%
South 58%
West 44%

While it’s unclear which states are included in each region, the 44% “East” number could include landslide losses (for McCain) in NY, NJ, and MA but a possible win in PA. The “Midwest” number probably includes Obama-strong IL, but McCain might be running well in OH, MO, and MI, while losing MN and WI–it would be helpful to have the Obama number and the undecideds.

McCain will probably win the entire South, with only FL and VA in doubt. But this 58% could include a big lead in vote-rich TX, and might hide weakness in FL.

The 44% support in the “West” probably includes a big loss in CA, which probably drowns out whatever is happening in other states, although McCain is likely to win a landslide in AZ. The crucial Western states are CO, NV, and NM, with CO being the most important.

This same Gallup poll also shows McCain winning independent voters 52-37, which could flip the Electoral College to McCain if they are in the swing states.

cjs1943 on September 9, 2008 at 11:11 AM

I’d have to guess the Dem interior designers got to the color-wheel first? “Red is just such an angry color…it just says angry angry angry all over it. Blue? Well, that’s just such a happy color!”

One thing that I find strange is:

in Australia Red=liberal and Blue=conservative

imagine my consternation the first time I delved into US politics. lol

Crux Australis on September 9, 2008 at 10:44 AM

I know, takes some adjusting. Same with the whole “Labour” versus “Conservative” Party things in England — opposite of what you’d think they meant, I beieve (and Ireland, Democrats are the Conservatives, to get even more confusing).

One thing that I find strange is:

in Australia Red=liberal and Blue=conservative

imagine my consternation the first time I delved into US politics. lol

Crux Australis on September 9, 2008 at 10:44 AM

As I understand, it used to be that way in the US as well (definitions of libral vs. conservative aside), with the Democrats as red and the Republicans as blue. There is a website around somewhere that still graphs things that way.
I’m told that the change happened around the same time the press jumped into bed with the Democrats (did Hollywood start color coding bad guys as red and good guys as blue somewhere around then? Or maybe it has something to do with military friend-or-foe coloring?)

Any other Aussies on Hotair?

Crux Australis on September 9, 2008 at 10:15 AM

In spirit and in (some) family, let me put it that way. I’d be living on a sweet blueberry farm in Coff’s Harbor as I write this if I had my druthers.

Welcome to Hot Air, I hope you’ll frequent the place.

One thing that I find strange is:

in Australia Red=liberal and Blue=conservative

imagine my consternation the first time I delved into US politics. lol

Crux Australis on September 9, 2008 at 10:44 AM

I’ve always been dumfounded by this also. When I think of red, I think of socialists/communists. That should be the color of the donks, not blue.

“announcer voice” “Right back where he started….Judgement to lead?”–sven10077 on September 9, 2008 at 10:53 AM

Rudy! imitating Obama will always bring me a chuckle.

“Should I vote yes? Should I vote no? I can’t decide!”