NBC poll: 23-point swing towards McCain among women 18 to 49
posted at 8:24 pm on September 9, 2008 by Allahpundit
Similar to ABC’s data yesterday, although that was limited to white women and this is all women within the age group. You’d think the shift would make for a huge surge overall. ‘Tain’t so. Last month Obama led by three, this month he leads by one. Within the margin of error.
One significant shift in the poll is among women. Back in August, Obama was leading McCain by 14 points. Now his lead is just four points.
And just a month ago, McCain trailed Obama by 20 points among women ages 18 to 49. Now the Arizona Republican leads by three points.
The pollsters attribute these shifts primarily to McCain’s pick of the Alaska governor.
“The Palin factor is remarkable,” said Newhouse. “She has clearly added an excitement factor. There is no question about that.”
CNN also sees white women defecting to McCain, although that trend began before the conventions, not with the Palin announcement. I wonder, which age demographic of women is Obama winning to maintain a four-point lead? Older voters of both sexes tend to break towards McCain, don’t they? Women 49-65, maybe?
Another money detail from the Journal’s companion piece: A clear majority are “comfortable” with the idea of Palin as VP and a 34/25 plurality say she’s more likely to get them to vote for McCain than less likely. Double-digit boosts for him this month in enthusiasm and “change” messaging, too. Like I’ve been saying since the pick was announced, she’s not a play for the middle (Hillary voters on balance say they’re less likely to vote for McCain because of her than for him) but a play for the base: “Nearly six in 10 Southern voters now favor the McCain ticket, up from fewer than half in August.” Exit quotation:
Politics aside, Sen. Obama and Gov. Palin emerged in the poll as the most desirable dinner dates. Asked who they would most like to have dinner with, 40% picked Sen. Obama. Gov. Palin was second with 33%. The white men finished last: 15% want most to dine with Sen. McCain, and for Sen. Biden, it was 7%.
Breaking on Hot Air