NBC poll: 23-point swing towards McCain among women 18 to 49
posted at 8:24 pm on September 9, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Similar to ABC’s data yesterday, although that was limited to white women and this is all women within the age group. You’d think the shift would make for a huge surge overall. ‘Tain’t so. Last month Obama led by three, this month he leads by one. Within the margin of error.
One significant shift in the poll is among women. Back in August, Obama was leading McCain by 14 points. Now his lead is just four points.
And just a month ago, McCain trailed Obama by 20 points among women ages 18 to 49. Now the Arizona Republican leads by three points.
The pollsters attribute these shifts primarily to McCain’s pick of the Alaska governor.
“The Palin factor is remarkable,” said Newhouse. “She has clearly added an excitement factor. There is no question about that.”
CNN also sees white women defecting to McCain, although that trend began before the conventions, not with the Palin announcement. I wonder, which age demographic of women is Obama winning to maintain a four-point lead? Older voters of both sexes tend to break towards McCain, don’t they? Women 49-65, maybe?
Another money detail from the Journal’s companion piece: A clear majority are “comfortable” with the idea of Palin as VP and a 34/25 plurality say she’s more likely to get them to vote for McCain than less likely. Double-digit boosts for him this month in enthusiasm and “change” messaging, too. Like I’ve been saying since the pick was announced, she’s not a play for the middle (Hillary voters on balance say they’re less likely to vote for McCain because of her than for him) but a play for the base: “Nearly six in 10 Southern voters now favor the McCain ticket, up from fewer than half in August.” Exit quotation:
Politics aside, Sen. Obama and Gov. Palin emerged in the poll as the most desirable dinner dates. Asked who they would most like to have dinner with, 40% picked Sen. Obama. Gov. Palin was second with 33%. The white men finished last: 15% want most to dine with Sen. McCain, and for Sen. Biden, it was 7%.
She’s vastly more popular than Biden among undecideds, too. Still, only seven percent for dinner with Joe? This Joe?
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Go back and look at the Palin threads BEFORE August 29th. You’ll see a comment there where I TOLD you that women of child bearing age made the difference in 2004, and that McCain needed to pick Palin to attract those women – because they would make the difference in this election as well.
My collie says:
CyberCipher on September 9, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Isn’t that 50% of the “youth vote”???
mad saint jack on September 9, 2008 at 8:28 PM
From my previous post on a different Hotair thread:
“I predict a bounce for the McCain bounce! Women represent more than 50% of the electorate and their voices will be heard during the next few days.
Nelsa on September 9, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Nuff said!
Nelsa on September 9, 2008 at 8:29 PM
No, no. It’s “Yoots”.
Weebork on September 9, 2008 at 8:30 PM
I can say my two voting daughters and wife are snug in the McCain camp now. Shweet.
Patrick S on September 9, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Biden might bore you to tears, but at least he wouldn’t eat you out of house and home. He’d be too busy talking.
Wethal on September 9, 2008 at 8:30 PM
I call it the “Lifetime Channel” voting bloc.
newton on September 9, 2008 at 8:31 PM
So, we’re down by 1? What happened to being up by 10? Oh, that’s right…polls suck.
flipflop on September 9, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Yutes.
Wethal on September 9, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Driving home from work, I saw a big yard sign that read
“Women for McCain”
This was along Rt 2 in Lincoln, Massachusetts.
fluffy on September 9, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Okay- if NBC is reporting this, then I don’t trust it AT ALL.
FiveWays on September 9, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Hey Barry….how do you like that lipstick?
sven10077 on September 9, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Two words, Bradley Effect.
jukin on September 9, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Is this the new “welfare queen”?
greggriffith on September 9, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Too bad for Obama that Oprah probably would not now have him on to try to boost his poll numbers. She’ll protect her brand before she’ll do anything more for Obama.
Wethal on September 9, 2008 at 8:32 PM
That’s the youth vote to McCain!
lorien1973 on September 9, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Barack-O the zero is finished, he may as well hang it up now. No, I’m serious. If he has lost a substantial percentage of women and he has, its over.
Maxx on September 9, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Your “pigs” comin’ home to roost, Messiah?
MrScribbler on September 9, 2008 at 8:34 PM
I didn’t know Obama picked his running mate yet.
frankj on September 9, 2008 at 8:34 PM
McCain leaps ahead in NC
RALEIGH (WTVD) — In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.
Loxodonta on September 9, 2008 at 8:36 PM
He’s got to be TRYING to lose this thing. Seriously….
FiveWays on September 9, 2008 at 8:36 PM
The full poll: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080909_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf
D0WNT0WN on September 9, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Yes, it does give a whole new meaning to “when pigs fly,” doesn’t it?
Wethal on September 9, 2008 at 8:36 PM
This is like watching a truck filled with kittens plow into a busload of kindergartners in slow motion.
Chuck Schick on September 9, 2008 at 8:36 PM
So there is some not-old-but-not-young category that still goes for Obama? Boomers?
Count to 10 on September 9, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Racism!
(Get used to it. If Obama goes down we’ll never hear the end of it.)
Hannibal Smith on September 9, 2008 at 8:38 PM
The gamble’s working, AP. Admit it. Had he gone with a “safe” pick, he’d be well behind. In fact, he’d be finished.
May still turn out poorly (there, I gave you your daily fix), but McCain had to make it.
SteveMG on September 9, 2008 at 8:39 PM
B.O.’s totally uncalled-for “lipstick on a pig” comment may have just cost him the election.
If I were a woman in the Democratic Party and heard my candidate make a comment like this, I would be charging over to the other side like my pants were on fire, and I would not look back!
I think we are just starting to see the trickle of women starting to be won over by McCain. Very soon, that trickle will become a rushing torrent.
pilamaye on September 9, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Man you guys think MSNBC is in the tank for Obama should see CNN right now.
Have the political videos are anti Palin. The other half talk about how Obama is going to easily defeat John McCain in November.
William Amos on September 9, 2008 at 8:40 PM
The “Lipstick on a Pig” comment will be worth another 2% or 3% for McCain/Palin.
gmoonster on September 9, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Check out McCain’s latest ad on education.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVLQhRiEXZs
MyriadScreed on September 9, 2008 at 8:44 PM
CBS Poll
Poll: Uncommitted Voters Move To McCain
CBS News Poll Finds That Voters Who Were Unsure Last Month Are More Likely To Have Settled On Republican Ticket
William Amos on September 9, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Anyone see the recent Obama rallies, the parts they show on TV, the excitement bloom has left the room, as well as the crowd size.
tarpon on September 9, 2008 at 8:44 PM
According to the NBC/WSJ Poll Hillary Clinton’s favorable rating is above Obama or McCain.
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080909_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf
D0WNT0WN on September 9, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Bear in mind, this is before the “lipstick on a pig” comment…
Let’s see what his post “lipstick on a pig” numbers amongst women look like.
SuperCool on September 9, 2008 at 8:46 PM
Get lost troll.
fogw on September 9, 2008 at 8:46 PM
A clinton/palin ticket would win a landslide then eh?
sven10077 on September 9, 2008 at 8:47 PM
I’m 26-year-old single career woman and am love with Palin, so it’s true. Of course, I was going to vote for McCain beforehand but now I’m just really happy to do so. She definitely represents me :)!!
I think that the NBC poll is probably weighted incorrectly (like the Gallup poll – Johnny Mac’s not 10 points ahead); McCain seems to be a few points ahead of Obama and many iffy states (MT and NC) seem to be coming home. I do think that McCain is the one ahead though because Team Barry seems to be on the defensive.
Illinidiva on September 9, 2008 at 8:47 PM
Biden is such a tool.
WisCon on September 9, 2008 at 8:47 PM
Hey, Barak “Feeldoe” Obama, next time say……..
…….. you can pay me later.
Seven Percent Solution on September 9, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Hey, that was clever! You should have come back with an “under the bus” reference.
fiatboomer on September 9, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Thanks. Very good ad. Powerful.
Loxodonta on September 9, 2008 at 8:49 PM
Are you Chuck’s girlfriend?
fogw on September 9, 2008 at 8:50 PM
It’s only going to get better after McCain starts hammering out his policy per his speech: education is the civil rights issue of this century. Lots of moms are going to be tuned in for that now.
Spirit of 1776 on September 9, 2008 at 8:51 PM
I think it will just serve to further anger the PUMAs. “Why didn’t he pick her?!?!” Combine that with calling Palin a pig. I think the female backlash is building. Not peaking.
D0WNT0WN on September 9, 2008 at 8:51 PM
But, I thought Obama didn’t mean anything by the lipstick on a pig comment????
HAS he EVER used it before? Or did Sarah’s speech that blew his running mate out of the water do it?
STAND UP JOE!!
originalpechanga on September 9, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Whoa! What was that for?
I was talking about Obama/Biden’s candidacy.
Chuck Schick on September 9, 2008 at 8:51 PM
There’s Joe Biden summarized in less than 10 words.
Mallard T. Drake on September 9, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Where all the white women at ??
redrock on September 9, 2008 at 8:51 PM
McBrilliant. McBrilliant. McBrilliant.
Ronnie on September 9, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Heh. Notice some of the comments there.
Ah yes, the news media – that ever-reliable arm of the BusHitlerBurton Military Industrial Complex.
That poll also mentioned McCain’s support among affluent and non-affluent voters. Uh oh, Dems.
fiatboomer on September 9, 2008 at 8:52 PM
Don’t trust the polls to much..
Get out and organize, and get people registered.
Donate, and help.
Chakra Hammer on September 9, 2008 at 8:52 PM
Heh. Touche.
fiatboomer on September 9, 2008 at 8:53 PM
Has someone else already brought up the Alec Baldwin reference?
D0WNT0WN on September 9, 2008 at 8:53 PM
Folks, snark should have been used.. DON’T CRY SEXISM IF IT ENDS UP MAKING YOU BETA… right now Team Obama are waiting for an overreach so settle down with the Outrage! while not letting him off the hook.
ninjapirate on September 9, 2008 at 8:46 PM
The best response is not to go emo, the best response is to bang Sarah’s tipjar.
Then after we kick his ass in nomvember and the riots from his team’s temper tantrum die down to send his frickin’ office cheap lipstick in bulk.
You do not beat a guy by outshining him, he’s too good at it and we ain’t got the time.
You beat him by taking the toy he wants, and frankly the office ain’t a toy.
Let’s keep the adults in charge….
5,10,15,20,50 bucks whatever bang Sarah’s jar.
sven10077 on September 9, 2008 at 8:52 PM
sven10077 on September 9, 2008 at 8:54 PM
Up, Chuck! UP,CHUCK, UPCHUCK!
kcfrommt on September 9, 2008 at 8:55 PM
When you talk smut like this …….
…… you come across like a troll.
Come up with a better analogy next time.
fogw on September 9, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Im so confused, how can the polls have Obie in a lead and some polls have Mccain w/5 points or higher?
Mercy4Me on September 9, 2008 at 8:55 PM
I am growing weary with these polls. I am confident in McCain, but the media is in the tank for Obamination and there must be some kind of tactic they are committing here.
jencab on September 9, 2008 at 8:55 PM
You’re right, there won’t be a word in the dictionary that isn’t racist after Obama loses. The liberals will be screeching racist from every mountain top. That’s all they got.
Maxx on September 9, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Lipstick on a pig? WTF? Is Obama trying to lose the election? Because that just may have cost him huge.
Geronimo on September 9, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Yes sir!
Chuck Schick on September 9, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Alec Baldwin calls his daughter a “rude, thoughtless, little pig” :
http://www.break.com/index/alec_baldwin_message_for_his_daughter.html
Will Obama be on the View soon? I doubt it. He is incapable of apologizing or even admitting an error. He will bleed out for a while on this one.
D0WNT0WN on September 9, 2008 at 9:00 PM
There are many many factors, like who paid for what poll and what result they wanted. Polls…. can’t trust them. But they will become more accurate within a few weeks of the election because no polling agency wants to get it way wrong and lose their credibility.
Maxx on September 9, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Mac’s gonna beat Zer0bama like a Bulgarian women’s ice hockey team! haha (read the headline section!)
Tony737 on September 9, 2008 at 9:02 PM
OT: Just read at FR that Hugh Hewitt said Bolton has been assigned to Palin’s team? Anyone else hear that?
Connie on September 9, 2008 at 9:05 PM
Please tell me it’s not Erica Hill. (she was good on the Glenn Beck show.)
mad saint jack on September 9, 2008 at 9:07 PM
Yes. And it brought a smile to my face. Condie was assigned to Bush. Bolton has been assigned to Palin. I like the trend line.
D0WNT0WN on September 9, 2008 at 9:08 PM
Wow! I never thought McCain would go THERE, but I’m glad he did. He needs to hammer home the school voucher issue, especially to inner-city parents who KNOW it’s a good thing.
SouthernGent on September 9, 2008 at 9:11 PM
Oh happy day!
Spirit of 1776 on September 9, 2008 at 9:12 PM
Unless she grows the ’stache!
lorien1973 on September 9, 2008 at 9:16 PM
I heard brown-noser, Bill O. say today, “we know most black people will vote for Obama and white racists will not vote for him,” Applying logic to this statement would it then imply that blacks voting for Obama (for no reason other than race) are black racists because they will not vote for McCain because of his race? Some people will do anything for ratings.
flyoverland on September 9, 2008 at 9:16 PM
Who wouldn’t want to eat dinner with an average, albeit smart guy from Scranton?
Fuquay Steve on September 9, 2008 at 9:16 PM
I think Obama will end up losing more women. I am a woman and he lost me a long time ago.
Terrye on September 9, 2008 at 9:16 PM
This is the death knell. Women are the key demo for Dems to have in order to be electable. Obama is most definitely NOT The One.
SimplyKimberly on September 9, 2008 at 9:20 PM
lol, um, thanks for the image
Spirit of 1776 on September 9, 2008 at 9:23 PM
The bigger news is that Ol’ Joe said “God love ya”
malkinmania on September 9, 2008 at 9:25 PM
On the contrary, this will make no dent in the adoration of the lib airheads on the View. And if Hasselbeck tries to speak out against this, she will be shouted down by her cohosts. The airheads will happily spin this (or try to) toward Obama’s favor.
ErinF on September 9, 2008 at 9:35 PM
I thought the analogy was fine in the first place. The image made me laugh.
Blarg the Destroyer on September 9, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Yeah, you’re right. Truckloads of dead kittens and busloads of dead children. Funny image. Really Funny.
Welcome aboard, nutcase.
fogw on September 9, 2008 at 9:46 PM
Well hang on I have another funny/gaffe from biden from another speech. Have to convert video
William Amos on September 9, 2008 at 9:51 PM
I don’t imagine it’s all for the sake of McCain/Palin. I think a significant percentage of it is just a growing righteous hatred of an elitist condescending mainstream media, who tells voters how stupid and racist they are if they don’t worship at the feet of the Chosen One.
RBMN on September 9, 2008 at 9:53 PM
While we are waiting for William…………
………….. get out the popcorn.
Seven Percent Solution on September 9, 2008 at 9:54 PM
What dopes. Everyone knows you’re supposed to yell “Chocolate!”
fogw on September 9, 2008 at 9:59 PM
Bolton’s priming Palin, eh?
That’s gonna be one ugly VP debate.
Can Biden “tap out” at some point to avoid permanent injury?
Is there a provision for standing 8 counts?
Will Biden have a corner man to throw in the towel for him?
Can the moderater stop the debate due to excessive bleeting?
SuperCool on September 9, 2008 at 10:00 PM
I’ve been studying (and blogging) for almost six months promoting Palin.
I totally had it pegged that the MSM and leftists would try to crucify her and her family just like Clarence Thomas and that it would totally backfire.
What totally shocks me though is how the leftist MSM and blogs STILL have not figured it out yet. They are even more hateful than I could have possibly imagined. It’s like a critical mass situation.
By the way, I also had it pegged that little Piper and Trig would capture the hearts of Americans and the fact that Trig has DS would be a minor factor to.
However, even though I was praying he’d pick Sarah due to her being the most like him and best help to campaign, I didn not think McCain had the balls. He is one brave man, I have no doubt.
Sapwolf on September 9, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Bolton is prepping Palin? Really?
Cool! Anybody that pisses off the punks at the UN has got to be a half-way decent coach.
Good Luck!
Sapwolf on September 9, 2008 at 10:25 PM
23 points,thats humongus,gigantic!
There must be a whole lot of Hunting,Hockey moms,who
have husbands,that ‘real men straddle snowmachines’that
either ride for enjoyment or competition!
Hey,who knew that the Palin Family,did both!!
Like I said before Sarah Palin has locked up almost
all snowy and colder upper American States!
And Besides,i really don’t know the numbers,but Sarah’s
voters identify with her,and vice versa,for some inexplica
ble reason,women who are in the North always seem to be in
charge,and for me,thats A-Okay!!:)
canopfor on September 9, 2008 at 10:29 PM
if there was any chance of an Obama affair scandal, now it would destroy him with remaining fence sitting women
jp on September 9, 2008 at 10:30 PM
I can’t wait for da SarahCuda smackdown on Biden/Gaffer
at the debate,it’ll be awfully unwise of Biden to go up
against a Hemi’SarahCuda!!!Me thinks!Hehe.
I hear that,so far only 1 VP debate
and 3 Presidential debates are scheduled?
canopfor on September 9, 2008 at 10:35 PM
I’m sure a certain oven mitt wearer isn’t feeling enriched by Palin’s candidacy.
GO SARAH!
sloopy on September 9, 2008 at 10:52 PM
It is absolutely and patently true … POLLS SUCK!
Having said that, just look around; see for yourself the excitement and the new energy the Honorable Governor of Alaska has brought home. Sarah Palin is “The Obama Effect” on STEROIDS! She alone beats the failing Obama with her pinkie. Pun intended.
People, men and women, from every corner of the United States are enthused about John McCain’s selection. It’s historic for Republicans and for some very queer reason it’s poison for a few of the Democrats.
Nevertheless, energy drinks are optional now with Sarah McCain’s honesty, her smile, and feminine drive. She is the joy and thrill conservatives have to keep Barack Obama at bay; awake and sleepless at night.
God Bless America! Let’s begin the SURGE AGAINST OBAMA.
AdrianS on September 9, 2008 at 11:11 PM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 46% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 47%.
Oops. Two polls in two days showing Obama with a statistically insignificant one point lead.
The McCain/Palin bounce is ending.
jim m on September 10, 2008 at 9:45 AM
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