Democrats and Independents should take a second look and remain wary of any Republican from Alaska.

There must be something in the water up there…?

First Stevens, then Murkowski and now Palin…?

Perhaps most of these shenanigans and skullduggery is just now being investigated and coming into clear view…?

“Power to the People.”
J_Gocht on September 9, 2008 at 2:12 PM

But Chicago… clean as the driven snow….

CC

Other than the one Gallup poll, McCain is ahead at most by five, tied in one and losing by one in one other.

At this time last year, the worst poll for Bush had him up by four.

jim m on September 9, 2008 at 8:41 PM

Bush was also an incumbent, which is definitely worth a few points.

The race is definitely McCain’s to lose at this point.

At this time last year, the worst poll for Bush had him up by four.

Also, the Gallup article makes note that whoever is ahead after the conventions shake out invariably wins, and if Obama retakes the lead, he’ll be bucking history.

Not saying things won’t change, but it looks damn good for McCain. Especially when Obama moves to capture the woman vote by calling Palin a pig.

Bottom line: McCain/Palin’s numbers are overall nowhere as good as Bush’s were (apart from one of Gallup’s poll) and he barely won by 1.5% at the end.

CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 – 9/22 Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV) 9/20 – 9/22 Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV) 9/17 – 9/21 Bush +3
NBC News/WSJ (787 LV) 9/17 – 9/19 Bush +4
Zogby (1066 LV) 9/17 – 9/19 Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV) 9/14 – 9/18 Bush +3
ARG (LV) 9/7 – 9/21 Bush +1
CBS News (1048 RV) 9/12 – 9/16 Bush +9
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 – 9/15 Bush +14
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/12 – 9/15 Bush +4
Pew Research (725 LV) 9/11 – 9/14 Bush +1
Harris (867 LV) 9/9 – 9/13 Kerry +1
Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 – 9/10 Bush +6
IBD/TIPP (674 LV) 9/7 – 9/12 TIE
Zogby (1018 LV) 9/8 – 9/9 Bush +4
Time (857 LV) 9/7 – 9/9 52% Bush +11
AP/Ipsos (899 LV) 9/7 – 9/9 Bush +5
FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV) 9/7 – 9/8 Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post (LV) 9/6 – 9/8 Bush +9
Pew Research (745 LV) 9/8 – 9/10 Bush +16
CBS News (909 RV) 9/6 – 9/8 Bush +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV) 9/3 – 9/5 Bush +7
Newsweek (1,008 RV) 9/2 – 9/3 Bush +11

Amie Parnes reports from Lebanon, VA:

Obama poked fun of McCain and Palin’s new “change” mantra.

“You can put lipstick on a pig,” he said as the crowd cheered. “It’s still a pig.”

“You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change. It’s still gonna stink.”

“We’ve had enough of the same old thing.”

The crowd apparently took the “lipstick” line as a reference to Palin, who described the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull in a single word: “lipstick.”

Otherwise, both parties are not much different. More of the same. Little nibbles of difference around the edges.

Stop the madness in DC; that’s the message they’re sending, and we hear it loud and clear.

JudetheFossil on September 9, 2008 at 2:45 PM

Then there’s this out of Florida; not the best news ,for sure!

“Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are tied at 48 percent in a new Rasmussen poll conducted Sunday and released late Monday.
Before both parties held their conventions, an August Rasmussen poll showed McCain with a 46-43 lead in Florida.”

I hear Sarah won’t be going to Florida, how come…?

In fact, Republicans didn’t shift much at all, trans-convention.

Well, yes and no. McCain’s support among Republicans is significantly more solid than it was a month ago (see the Rasmussen crosstabs). That’s not shift, granted, but it is strengthened support — and Obama’s soft support are potentially McCain voters.

In fact, Republicans didn’t shift much at all, trans-convention.

That’s because there’s a lot of ‘pessimistic’ people within the GOP that are still sore about McShamnesty. I suppose some of them will stay home on Nov. 4th.

There will be those too, mainly on the West Coast, who will get into their cars after work and turn on talk radio. Once home they’ll turn on MSNBC, CNN, or Fox. A sudden sense of panic will wash over them as they realize that they’re acting like angry drunken sailors and walking a fine line of suffering a major hang over the likes they won’t be able to get over for more than 4 to 8 years. They’ll vote before 8PM guaranteed.

My guess? It’s going to be an attack on Obama’s and the Democratic establishment’s ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This is a political scandal of epic proportions and it ALL will hit Democrats if the Republicans have the nerve to get the facts out.

While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 — the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces. The only possible exception to this general pattern occurred in 1980, when Jimmy Carter had a slim one-point advantage after the Democratic National Convention but he and Ronald Reagan were exactly tied one month after Carter was nominated for a second term.

Thus, if Obama regains the lead over the next month, he will be bucking the historical trend. Admittedly, most of the elections since 1964 were not as competitive as this year’s election has been, but even in closely contested election years of 1988 (George H.W. Bush led by just four points after the GOP convention that year), 2000, and 2004 the post-conventions leader usually held that position one month later.

Am I wrong, are is Gallup basically predicting a McCain victory and saying an Obama come-back is a long-shot?

Independent voters do not believe the country’s problems can be solved merely by replacing Republicans with Democrats. They cast a pox on both houses. That’s why they’re independents.

Obama can’t compare to McCain’s record of standing up to (and at times infuriating) his own party. Listening to McCain criticize his party in his acceptance speech (at the RNC, no less) was music in Independents’ ears.

MarkTheGreat on September 9, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Thank you. Why am I not surprised that we hear a skewed figure?

OT. Has anyone looked at Obama’s tax returns (2000 through 2007)? He and his wife had one year (2004) when their AGI was as little as $207K, but that year aside, their AGI figures (rounded) were $241K (2000), $273K (2001), $259K (2002), $238K (2003), $1.655M (2005), $983K (2006), and $4.14M (2007). Yet for 2000 through 2004 Obama and his wife reported $72 of interest income (taxable or tax-exempt) and no dividends.

In 2005, they reported taxable interest of $13,385 and dividends of $2,754; in 2006, taxable interest of $4,590 and dividends of $1,188; and in 2007, taxable interest of $1,442, tax-exempt interest of $45,851, and no dividends.

In February 2005, the Obamas bought two stocks, but they were out of them by November 2005, selling one for a $2,700 gain and the other for a $15,200 loss.

I don’t know about anyone else, but these tax returns seem to demonstrate two people who don’t know anything about personal financial planning and little about the financial markets.

To be fair, the two McCain returns that I’ve seen show AGI figures of $339K (2006) and $387K (2007). He receives a military pension of, I think, around $60K a year that’s nontaxable because it’s been classified as nontaxable disability pay. In 2006, he reported $14 of taxable interest and no dividends. In 2007, he reported $48 of taxable interest and dividends of $74. From the pages 1 and 2 of Cindy McCain’s 2006 return, she seems to be invested in the markets.

I’m not sure which way this information cuts, but anytime Obama is touted as better on the economy I think of his tax returns. I wouldn’t let him run a lemonade stand. McCain may joke about it as a weakness, but I’m much more comfortable with the idea of Republican economic advisers than I am with the idea of Democratic economic advisers. Indeed, I’ve always thought that the expression “Democratic economic adviser” was an oxymoron.

Wow. McCain had been preferred by 40% of independents until the convention. More at Hot Air. Interestingly, McCain has increased his share of Democratic voters from 9% to 14%. He also is maintaining his five point lead in the Gallup……

By choosing Palin as his running mate, McCain chose an “outsider” who did have an admittedly short record of reform, who was relatively unknown to Democrats and the media. The Obama campaign’s efforts to label her as inexperienced have backfired on Obama, and the media attacks on her left people curious to actually hear her, which probably drove up the audience for her speech, who found her likeable, smart, and competent, and good at poking holes in Obama’s claims (she didn’t go after Biden).

Palin’s pro-life record has solidified the GOP base, but she HAS gone after corruption in Alaska, even in her own party, which appeals to independent voters, who had turned away from the GOP in 2006.

If Obama tries to “tack to the middle” now, some of his moonbats might not bother voting, and McCain should jump all over his flip-flops between the primary and general election (they are legion!). Palin can be a very strong advocate on the energy issue, where 60-70% of the voters favor offshore drilling, while reassuring independents that McCain won’t be owned by the oil companies. The one possible weakness that remains is Palin’s lack of foreign-policy experience relative to Biden, but even if she loses that debate, McCain can dominate Obama on that issue.

If Obama persists in trying to bash Palin, he will look weak by comparison–Obama vs. Palin is probably a wash, but McCain will look statesmanlike by comparison. If Obama tries to return to an issues-oriented campaign, McCain/Palin will have to explain the wisdom of a corporate tax-cut, and the folly of Obama socialism, and hopefully Palin will have boned up on Economics 101.

Geronimo on September 9, 2008 at 2:00 PM

When the GOP is the first party to elect a black man/woman to POTUS we’ll be able to put that canard to rest.