Will cell phones rescue Barack Obama?
posted at 5:01 pm on September 8, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Barack Obama’s sudden decline in the polls have some of his supporters, and even some of John McCain’s backers, wondering whether the nosedive accurately reflects popular opinion. Obama’s strength comes with younger voters, they note, and younger voters use cell phones more often as a substitute for land lines — and pollsters don’t call cell phones. The implication is that Obama may be underrepresented by these polls and is performing stronger than people suspect.
Well, anything is possible, but as John Kerry can tell you, building hopes on massive youth turnout usually sets a candidate up for severe disappointment. The supposed flood of new voters never arrived in 2004, when passions against the Iraq War ran much higher on college campuses than it does now. Adding Joe Biden to the ticket certainly didn’t impress younger voters, either; 39% of the younger demographic said they’d be less likely to vote for Obama with Biden on the ticket, while 31% of them said they’d be more likely. At the same time, in the same demographic, 50% said Palin was the right choice for McCain, while 36% said no.
If this concern had merit, we should have seen Obama overperforming against polling during the primaries against Hillary Clinton. He had a solid grip on the youth vote throughout all of the polling, after all, while Hillary appealed to older voters. Yet in state after state, Obama underperformed against polling predictions. Only in North Carolina in the last three months did he overperform against polling expectations, and North Carolina was already a gimme for Obama. Clearly the cell-phone issue didn’t underestimate Obama’s strength, as pollsters were busily overestimating it in state after state.
Polls have varying value as predictive models, but they’re better at reflecting trends. No matter what anyone wants to think about cell-phone users and ObamaNation Gen-Xers, the trends all look bad for Obama this week, and the internals look especially weak.
Update: Who are cell-only voters? More like us than people think — only a lot less likely to vote.
Blowback
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People didn’t suddenly all switch to cellphones in the last two weeks.
snickelfritz on September 8, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Slackers. They won’t vote anyway.
pseudonominus on September 8, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Why won’t pollsters call cell phones?
eea on September 8, 2008 at 5:06 PM
There is an article here https://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/21222/ that describes the Obama internet organization. Mostly it shows how they were able to pack the caucuses.
pedestrian on September 8, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Speaking of polls . . . have you noticed that when the outcomes favor McCain there is no headline reporting that fact in the majority of the mainstream media publications. Instead, they put their fingers in their ears, scream loudly and ignore the unpleasant outcomes.
rplat on September 8, 2008 at 5:07 PM
They are and they do. Relying on mythical cell phone voters not being counted is the last cry of a doomed ticket.
lorien1973 on September 8, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Quick! Somebody notify pollsters know about the invention of cell phones so that they can factor that into the results.
aunursa on September 8, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Pew Research on cell phones and Presidential polls (July 2008 update):
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/901/cell-phones-polling-election-2008
dtestard on September 8, 2008 at 5:08 PM
yes yes certainly…..
the millions of…ok well it is not millions of…..them…well not really.
Poll-takers worry a lot about this. A recent study indicates that polling results aren’t yet affected very much. We’re not so sure.
The most common kinds of public opinion polls long have been conducted by calling a random sample of residential phones. This was OK when nearly every home had a phone, but in recent years a growing number of people, mostly young adults, have decided to use only a cell phone and do without a separate landline in their home.
It’s possible to include cell phones in a poll sample, but it’s expensive, difficult and seldom done. That means a growing number of cell-phone-only persons are generally not included, and their opinions are not reflected in the results we commonly see published.
How big a problem is this? A study published in January by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press concluded that results of a poll including cell-only respondents were “virtually identical” to those based only on calls made to landlines. That’s reassuring, but we remain skeptical.
Pew commissioned two polls, one in October and one in December of 2007, which together included 2,596 interviews conducted by calls to landlines and 841 interviews conducted by calls to cell phones, using a sample drawn from a national database of cell phone numbers. And of those reached by cell phone, 312 people said their mobile phone is the only one they use.
The researchers reported little difference between the results from the landline-only sample and the larger group of both landline and cell phone users:
Pew: When data from both samples are combined and weighted to match the U.S. population on key demographic measures, the results are virtually identical to those from the landline survey alone. Across more than 100 political and attitudinal questions on the surveys, including cell phone interviews does not change the results by more than two percentage points in the vast majority of comparisons, and in only one comparison is the difference as large as 4 points.
In particular, there is no evidence that the polling in the Democratic and Republican nomination contests is biased by the fact that most polls rely only on landline interviews.
The above is from “Annenburg” btw I find the faith in cell phone users being one big voting bloc to be…”comforting” as long as it ain’t my guy counting on it.
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 5:08 PM
I don’t know, most of my friends and I only use our cell phones…and we are in our upper 40′s (yikes, that looks ugly in print).
ihasurnominashun on September 8, 2008 at 5:08 PM
It’s also not just the youth that have abandonded land lines. In fact, not many of my friends here in Los Angeles have land lines. We’re all mobile communicators!
hisfrogness on September 8, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Drudge is just taunting Obama now….
Obama’s verbal slip fuels his critics: ‘My Muslim faith’…
Says he considered joining military after high school…
Says could delay rescinding tax cuts…
Says was too flip on abortion question…
On Palin: ‘You can’t just reinvent yourself’…
LOL
lorien1973 on September 8, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Young people don’t vote. Never have, never will. Might as well count on bigfoot’s vote… if he weren’t dead and frozen in some hillbilly’s freezer.
frankj on September 8, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Of course, now the polls are wrong, but they were dead-on when Baracky held a comfortable lead.
Will the libs EVER accept that there isn’t some Rovian cabal out there which is making people disappear, hijacking voting machines and fencing-off minority neighborhoods, that perhaps their message and their candidate just…well…suck?
Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Add in the cell phone factor, subtract out the Bradley effect. It’s a wash.
Kafir on September 8, 2008 at 5:10 PM
As always, I blame Bush.
Mr_Magoo on September 8, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Oh no!
Obama’s calling in the American Idol voter brigade!
“Change- you can text message”
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Properly conducted polling, including startified sampling, can yield good predictive results. Your strata include representative amounts of each age group, ethnic group, etc. So done correctly, the use of cell versus land lines is not an issue. Just make sure you have the right number of the “yute vote” in your sample. This goes back to an old Literary Digest poll that predicted a Repubican would beat FDR. The sample for the Literary Digest called folks with telephones, and left off those too poor to have a phone, thus missing FDR’s base and strength. That doesn’t happen when you properly adjust and conduct polls. The Literary Digest is no longer published.
65droptop on September 8, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Does the polling take into account all of those racist Clinton supporters that I read about on DU during the primaries?
rw on September 8, 2008 at 5:11 PM
With the trends looking good for McCain, isn’t there a greater risk of McCain-Palin underpeforming? It would be a shame to see them lose because their supporters stayed home thinking the polls indicated it was a lock.
Is it worth risking that BHO won’t be the One that finally gets the youth vote out? Gen-Xer’s seem to be a very active generation.
“Better to overestimate your opponent than….”
Perfesser on September 8, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Exactly what is the reason they say that pollsters do not call cell phone numbers? How do they know if a phone number is a landline or a cell number? Do they actually eliminate cell numbers from their call list, or is it that their call lists are obtained from lists of telco landline directories?
With the introduction of phone number portability some years ago, there has been many landline numbers assigned to cell phones as many people have switched to cell phones as their primary phone. I would say this is most likely to be the trend with gen-x crowd.
So how do the pollsters eliminate cell numbers from their call lists?
AverageJoe on September 8, 2008 at 5:11 PM
I swear they were making this same case four years ago. Kerry and the Cellphone Voters were going to sweep Bush decisively out of the White House.
I’m amazed at the short memories sometimes.
Kensington on September 8, 2008 at 5:11 PM
“CAN WE YES” YES WE CAN WHIP HIS ASS!
amex on September 8, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Drudge is just taunting Obama now….
Hehehe, look at that pic of Baracky on Drudge, he even has the head tilt going though it sort of resembles my mutt when I tease him with the dog whistle.
Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 5:12 PM
My thoughts exactly. Though having grown up in both the working class Northeast and South, I’m thinking the Bradley effect might prove to be the more potent of the two.
Citizen Duck on September 8, 2008 at 5:13 PM
lorien1973 on September 8, 2008 at 5:07 PM
To be fair, the only person I have heard mentioning cell phones lately is Ed in this post.
Cell phones aside, I am a bit skeptical about the 10-point lead and 1% gap in party ID, but the trend is certainly encouraging.
DaveS on September 8, 2008 at 5:13 PM
My concern with Barry and the cell phone is what a good job he had done getting his database built up. iPhones have special “countdown to election day” icons to ensure no bambi supporter forgets when to vote, and his vp announcement was a great idea to get in direct comm with those who live and die by texting.
On critical dates: deadline to register to vote, days of rallies, election day itself, you can bet there will be multiple reminders to get out and do whatever he commands.
JustTruth101 on September 8, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Maybe he can get the pollsters to start text messaging their questions to our nation’s young adults at 3 in the morning, the way the Obama camp did with their Biden announcement.
jon1979 on September 8, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Of course they didn’t.
regardless of the so-called “cell phone factor,” what counts at the moment is the movement in the polls – which is not going to be affected.
But I also don’t buy the notion that only Barry’s crowd uses cell phones, and are thus unreachable. I think it likely that many more McCain supporters are cell-phoned. And it is certainly not only the younger people who are becomming more and more cell-phone-connected, this crosses age lines.
seanrobins on September 8, 2008 at 5:13 PM
These hip, savvy, 21st century whipper snappers are not exactly the most trustworthy, come election day. A large percentage of them will simply not vote as soon as they realize that they can’t text in their ballot.
GulfCoastBamaFan on September 8, 2008 at 5:13 PM
I noticed some Moonbats on a message board crowing about how Microsoft is allowing people to register to vote on their Xbox 360s. The Moonbats were sure that this was ingenious strategy.
I thought about pointing out that, unless these same people were going to be allowed to actually vote through their Xbox 360s, it wasn’t likely going to make a bit of difference. But then I realized that I don’t want them to think about that, so I didn’t.
When you make registration too easy, it seems to me, it only makes it more likely that the new registrant won’t make the minimal effort to actually show up at the polls and vote.
Kensington on September 8, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Howard Dean was saying the same thing when his poll numbers dropped. I hate to break it to the Obama campaign, but I think that pollsters actually know what they are doing and they know full well that a lot of people use cell phones. In typical political fashion, when a politician likes a poll, they speak glowingly of it. When they don’t, they find an excuse why the poll doesn’t work.
mike volpe on September 8, 2008 at 5:14 PM
My wife and I only have cell phones, and we’re both voting for McCain. McCain will be the first Republican my wife’s ever voted for also. She’s the daughter of two teachers from Chicago which makes it even more awesome.
BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Is it just me, or is Obama sounding more and more angry, more sarcastic, more strident in his speeches?
At a time when he should be encouraging the indpendents to move toward him, he seems to be driving them away merely on tone of voice.
As for the cell phones.
When a political party has to depend on quickcall lists for a “flash mob” to get potential voters to show up, it surely sends the message that voting is merely entertainment.
When voting is viewed by citizens as mere entertainment, this country is lost.
coldwarrior on September 8, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Judging by the HuffPo piece earlier… not in this lifetime. ;)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 5:16 PM
Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t you need a credit history to have a cell phone? That doesn’t really desctibe Obama’s base.
BuckNutty on September 8, 2008 at 5:17 PM
Coldwarrior –
This is new territory for him. He’s not used to having to work for something, and he can’t hide the gall. Isn’t it delicious?
Kensington on September 8, 2008 at 5:17 PM
Ed,
The presumption that cell phone users are underrepresented held true in the 2000 election. No more. Gallup at least uses both landline and cellphone numbers to gather a sample. So in 2008 that nugget no longer holds.
If you want, go to Gallup’s website and you will find that they state they gather both.
Dr. Dog on September 8, 2008 at 5:17 PM
Once again, the media is attempting to make the news, not content to just report it.
RobertInAustin on September 8, 2008 at 5:17 PM
W lost two elections by polls’ reckoning.
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 5:18 PM
You could eliminate them by removing numbers that have npa.nxx’s that belong to mobile carriers. I imagine that the polling outfits are not eliminating the numbers but are beginning with a source that does not include them, directory listings. If the polling companies are buying their call lists, then cell TN’s should begin to creep into the lists as those without landlines are using their cells as contact numbers for various purposes.
rw on September 8, 2008 at 5:18 PM
i was talking to a friend who’s a dem but voting mccain this time around and she mentioned the fact that pollsters don’t call cells when polling. i’m 32 y.o., a lawyer, and i only use a cell and i have a # of friends who do the same. i’m no slacker and neither are they so this may have more of an effect than people first think. it’s not just college students that only use cells.
anna on September 8, 2008 at 5:18 PM
No. They’re constitutionally incapable of that kind of self-reflection, insight or humility. They’re self-image as the only smart people is just too precious for them to give up. It’s amazing, and it just seems to get passed down from one clueless generation to the next.
Kensington on September 8, 2008 at 5:19 PM
I can also tell you that these survey’s have quota’s and the first person they ask for on the phone is the youngest male voter that is registered to vote.
They look for the young. first.
Now I don’t discount that some of this could have an effect, but in the search to ask the questions this is what happens.
Noelie on September 8, 2008 at 5:19 PM
To vote for Obama, send a text to 65432.
If it’s any harder than that, the youth ain’t gonna bother.
Okakis ’08!! (As seen on IMAO)
innominatus on September 8, 2008 at 5:20 PM
A side note to the cell phones: How much money will his text messaging cost the people who signed up to get his advance notice of VP selection? If he starts a text message deluge he could pi**-off more people than he may think.
digitsiam on September 8, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Man… they are going to be pissed on Nov. 6th when they learn that text message votes don’t count.
This argument is absurd. A random sample is a random sample. The medium used to get random samples is irrelevant.
If idea this were accurate, Obama would have had no bounce.
Damiano on September 8, 2008 at 5:21 PM
Chicago has technicians to make sure that registered nonvoters “vote” when needed.
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 5:21 PM
I haven’t had a land line since 2001 and I’m 27 and have voted in every election since 2000. My mother hasn’t had a land line since 2004. We’re both staunchly conservative.
bj1126 on September 8, 2008 at 5:22 PM
“My concern with Barry and the cell phone is what a good job he had done getting his database built up. iPhones have special “countdown to election day” icons to ensure no bambi supporter forgets when to vote, and his vp announcement was a great idea to get in direct comm with those who live and die by texting.
On critical dates: deadline to register to vote, days of rallies, election day itself, you can bet there will be multiple reminders to get out and do whatever he commands.
JustTruth101 on September 8, 2008 at 5:13 PM”
I think it’s a genuine concern. I had not thought of that risk…can McCain & Palin come up with a way to counter it? Us Repubs are already “likely voters”, so getting us to vote is not as big of a deal?
Maybe we can find a way to change the text from Obama into a brown note on their cell phones.
connertown on September 8, 2008 at 5:22 PM
The Grassroots Ron Paul organizers were saying the same thing… the seven percent polls aren’t accurate cause we have so many youthful supports with no land lines… pollsters don’t call them…
we all know the results
Jim T on September 8, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Good point. I grew up in Chicago and love Chicago, but the corruption is persistent and undeniable. Electioneering at the polling place is one of the most routine transgressions. I’ve never been to a polling place that didn’t have Democrat goons laying it on thick right outside the door.
Kensington on September 8, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Serpent-head (James Carvelle) once said that there is a nickname for candidates who rely on the youth vote:
They are called “Losers”.
kurtzz3 on September 8, 2008 at 5:25 PM
I’m 28, only have a cell phone and will not be voting for obama bin laden
jp on September 8, 2008 at 5:25 PM
And right under those headlines, Drudge has in bold red print:
USATODAY POLL: MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…
Awwww…
Loxodonta on September 8, 2008 at 5:26 PM
Ah, cell phones for the dead.
….can you here me now……
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Obama worked less than 2 days per week in the Illinois senate
ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 5:27 PM
….can you
herehear me now……Palinmania’s got me woozy…
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 5:27 PM
First of all, census data never lies and all census I have read in the last four years indicate that the population is getting older, not younger. It is going towards more women, married with children. People over the age of 30 are more likely to vote and people over the age of 45 are twice as more likely to vote than the 18-25 range. Last, people over 55…you get the picture
The Obama campaign tried to gear itself towards these demographic realities and one, long held myth of the 1968 elections: that a mobilized youth could help overcome deficits in any of these categories. But, this ain’t 1968 and there is no draft. They keep forgetting that. And, the war isn’t quite as unpopular as Vietnam. We were attcked.
But, back to the other campaign demographics, trying to attract the 45-55+ crowd is why Obama’s campaign (and Obama himself) have tried to put his political and rhetorical style in that of JFK and Martin Luther King, Jr. Even if those people were extremely young or not born at all at the time of these men’s lives, they are the children of those ages. They imbibed those mythologies. Yet, they also lived through the fall of the USSR, the 90′s and Billy Jeff and actually being attacked on 9/11 with real war over a long period of time.
They have married, have children, have mortgages, work regularly, try to make a better life for their children, and pay A LOT of taxes. They are more business savvy then their parents because they are more often managers that work in business service related work or in finance than their parents who were most often laborers in factories or other manual work.
The Democrats have wrongly assumed that the JFK/MLK marketing would trump the rest of the demographics’ history.
Finally, they were aiming at the “wal-mart moms” in the 25-35 demographic. The problem is, they were off target and hit the urban women with family who cares more about inner city day care. Wal-mart moms don’t live in $1 mil mansions or worry about whether they can spend $10,000 on a summer camp. They are trying to figure out how much money they have to buy school clothes and make dinner. They worry about how to pay their medical bills, but usually have at least 1 insurance plan through one or more spouses working. They aren’t necessarily excited about the government taking over their health care choices.
I could go on, but I think that pretty much explains the problem with Democrat evaluation of the demographics. Most of their analysts are apparently from urban coastal communities. They need somebody who can actually figure out how to read demographics and not put their own pie in the sky mythology/ideology on what they are seeing.
That was the same problem they had in 2004, but maybe worse. They simply do not get the politics of the commons.
I call it, the beer factor.
Kat_Mo on September 8, 2008 at 5:27 PM
It occurs to me that “voting” might actually have a different meaning when you’ve grown up on reality TV.
You mean I can’t vote as many times as I can hit redial in an hour?
petunia on September 8, 2008 at 5:29 PM
I don’t think we have to worry about new technology making polls less reliable, they were just as unreliable before the new technology.
And with the new technology of the CERN Atom Smasher about to fire up, the world is going to end on Wednesday anyway.
Loxodonta on September 8, 2008 at 5:32 PM
At first glance I thought this blog-post was about the Obama campaign’s massive call-list. Remember, they plan to text message their minions to remind them to vote in November.
More to the gist of the article, my wife and I only have cell phones – no landline. And we ain’t votin’ Obama.
dugan on September 8, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Another teentsy-weentsy problem:
Gallup accounts for the cellphone issue in its polling, as even Nate at 538 acknowledges.
And Gallup currently has the worst numbers for Obama.
Karl on September 8, 2008 at 5:33 PM
My brother who is 69 this year tried to convince me that the Obama administration was going to be just like JFK!
I didn’t want to be quarrelsome. So I said quietly that I didn’t think that was a good thing.
Don’t underestimate the nostalgia vote of old wannabe hippies from the JFK generation. (My brother actually sold insurance back then.) They always think the young still think that stuff is cool.
petunia on September 8, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Can you hear me now?…NO OBAMA!..not now,not EVER!
christene on September 8, 2008 at 5:36 PM
I’m a 43 year old cell phone only voter and would never even consider voting for Obama. How’s that fit with their stats?
NTropy on September 8, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Yeah thats right I remember reading the article about Obama ahead in the polls and he was “suprised” that he was not further ahead…and thought maybe it was because his base used cell phones…and were not home to get call from the pollsters…..right….everyone saw that article …right….hello…anyone…..is this thing on?(LOL)
GOPGryphon on September 8, 2008 at 5:41 PM
Don’t underestimate the nostalgia vote of old wannabe hippies from the JFK generation. (My brother actually sold insurance back then.) They always think the young still think that stuff is cool.
Don’t get me wrong, my parents are leaning heavily towards Obama for that reason. But, as I talked about in the “beer factor”, two things happened that tarnished that mythological comparison to JFK:
1) Invesco Field. I’m serious. My parents were like “WTF?”
2) They attacked Sarah Palin’s family
Those two issues put a damper on it, though may not have totally swayed it.
My parents also, though, want national health care. largely because they are older and are on fixed incomes so even Medicare doesn’t quite cover everything and they struggle. They are also ticked off at Matt Blunt for reducing Medicaid drug coverage in this state.
Second, the McCain with 7 houses add really hit them and took a bit of the “McCain is like us” shine off.
That is your report from fly over country
Kat_Mo on September 8, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Don’t try to reason with me on this one. If I’m ever going to stay up late at night, it’s because of this.
My personal pessimism meter is stuck at 7.5. Yes, below Allah’s.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on September 8, 2008 at 5:45 PM
“Don’t cell me, bro!”
SlimyBill on September 8, 2008 at 5:45 PM
Is it too late for a Fairness Doctrine for cell phones?
flyoverland on September 8, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Oh GAWD. Here comes the YOOT myth again. We’ve been waiting for this fantasy to become reality for about 40 years now.
Only half of the young democratic voters actually get off their lazy ass to vote – and by the time they’re old enough to get any sort of work ethic half of them have switched to being Republicans.
thareb on September 8, 2008 at 5:47 PM
No, properly conducted polls, the ones that were structured properly, DID call the election. If you mean the exit polls, those were certainly not properly conducted. But the best pollsters did call 2004 correctly.
And you will recall in 2000 the race was too close to call, and in fact, Bush lost the popular vote, not the electoral vote.
So yes, when done correctly (and when paid for) the results are very valuable. You see lots of polls, but the ones to pay attention to are “likely voter” polls, as these cost much more to conduct. The LV status is independently verified from registrar records — these are costly and not often paid for by news outlets. The candidates rely on them, though. And they are very predictive.
65droptop on September 8, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Try the clear liquors.
…worked wonders for Allah…..
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Kat_MO, I think your parents live next door to me.
Flyoverland
flyoverland on September 8, 2008 at 5:48 PM
I believe this year youth will vote in droves. That doesn’t mean their “love” will win, but we shouldn’t assume they’ll do what they always did, get drunk and have more sex.
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Thanks, but I’m partial to beer.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on September 8, 2008 at 5:49 PM
There is also an explanation that they kept pushing for these mystical ‘cell phone youths’.
On election day to create havoc at pollig places (long lines near closing when they bus people around).
Or day after, when the youth votes never materialize, they could call foul (voter suppression or some such) and demand recount after recount, while some ballot boxes accidentally being ‘discovered’.
Sir Napsalot on September 8, 2008 at 5:51 PM
AHA! I think we’ve found the problem!
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 5:52 PM
I haven’t seen this mentioned(admitedly I scaned) but one thing I’ve noticed among the people I know is that those that rent use cell phones those that own use landlines. Plus with “internet telephone” landlines might be making a comeback.
Don Carne on September 8, 2008 at 5:52 PM
I’m 27 and have a land line, but I almost never answer it. Most people call me on my cell anyway, but I don’t answer numbers I don’t recognize on the caller id.
SCGOPgirl on September 8, 2008 at 5:52 PM
I have been told new voters aren’t calculated when considering likely voters, thus skewing the results.
Is that true?
powerpro on September 8, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Skate boarders don’t answer the phone while skateboarding…
right2bright on September 8, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Beer is dear-
But Liquor is quicker-
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 5:54 PM
This is BS spin. If it were true then he wouldn’t have crashed in New Hampshire or elsewhere.
If anything the youth were over assumed in the primaries and were the responsibility of his underperforming- as well as the folks who made racial decisions when answering the polls.
One thing we should take from the primaries is add 3 points to Barack’s opponents.
eski502 on September 8, 2008 at 5:55 PM
I have nothing but a cell phone and got called for a poll just the other day so they do use them,still can’t figure out how they got my new number I’ve only had it a week but they called lol I just think people are tired of Obama and it’s starting to show,by the way huffpo is going nuts saying the reason Obama is doing badly is….wait for it… the press… it’s in the tank for McCain lmmfao.
tee866 on September 8, 2008 at 5:56 PM
“…building hopes on massive youth turnout usually sets a candidate up for severe disappointment.”
When are the Democrats going to realize that young people talk a great game, but don’t turn out in large numbers on Nov 4th.
OLD people vote, and the Democrats have gone out of their way to insult McCain (and older people by extension). It isn’t helping their cause.
GarandFan on September 8, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Kat_MO, I think your parents live next door to me.
Flyoverland
Heh. I get that sense. They struggle a little with the tax issue. We had a discussion about me preferring to help pay for their expenses than being stuck with a lifelong government, money pit forever and on to the great-great grandchildren, but they are only somewhat impressed by that argument.
Kat_Mo on September 8, 2008 at 5:59 PM
The cellphone argument was a favorite of Ron Paul supporters, and I know at least three hardcore Obama disciples who cracked jokes at Paul supporters using cellphones as an excuse just 5-6 months ago.
Ironic.
Paradol Ex on September 8, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Wonder if Rove is plotting a nationwide cell phone service outtage from Monday midday to late Tuesday, some time in early November? Might be the way to go.
Jaibones on September 8, 2008 at 5:59 PM
I use my cellphone lots, but when the power goes out, sometimes for days at a time, it’s nice to have that long cord, no base, plugged into the wall.
kellyjane on September 8, 2008 at 6:00 PM
But what about all the McCain believers who are too stupid to use phones. Aren’t they undercounted? (Channeling Obama’s “they think you’re stupid” quote.)
AverageJoe on September 8, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Be sure and clean up when you’re done.
*doesn’t eat*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 6:04 PM
I live in S. Florida and am rapidly approaching geezerhood. It didn’t take me long at all to figure out that:
1. Unlimited minutes
2. Unlimited text
3. Free long distance
4. Complete portability
hmmmm… why is it I need the land line?
Dropped faster than Obama dropped his grandmother…
What’s the big deal? I know many, many people in my age range that no longer see the point in a land line. They also see no point in Obama.
When they begin to include cell phones, they also need to add a magic device the will secretly tell them if the person is lying (Bradley Effect). They are right about the polls being wrong…. probably between 10 and 15%.
CC
CapedConservative on September 8, 2008 at 6:08 PM
It wasn’t an issue when Obama was leading by a big margin in the polls, but now, all of a sudden it’s an issue. My ears are already hearing the ‘count every vote’ mantra again.
vcferlita on September 8, 2008 at 6:11 PM
I tell every survey that calls my house I am Voting for Obama! If the slackers think he is going to win they will stay in their basements
GatewayMac on September 8, 2008 at 6:11 PM
I agree, it’s a plausible theory but the evidence from the primary election just doesn’t bare it out.
Dollayo on September 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
I’m not worrying about the young vote.
davidk on September 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
No, you don’t need a credit history to have a cell phone. There are lots of so-called throw-away cell phones, sold under brand names like Tracfone. Anybody can buy one at Wal-Mart, then buy a card to add time to the phone as needed. They’re very popular with drug dealers and other criminals who don’t want to leave a paper trail behind.
AZCoyote on September 8, 2008 at 6:15 PM
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