Still bouncing: New Gallup gives McCain five-point lead over Obama
posted at 1:38 pm on September 8, 2008 by Allahpundit
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This is the three-day tracker, not the daily snapshot, which has him up 50-46 among registered voters. Yesterday’s tracking poll: 48/45, with the pessimism meter fidgety at level nine.
No movement today on that. Not until he hits 50.
That [six-point bounce] is slightly better than Barack Obama’s four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points…
McCain’s current 49% share of the vote is his best performance in Gallup tracking to date. His five-point lead is his best since early May, when he led Obama by six points (48% to 42%). Obama has led throughout much of the campaign, and has led nearly all of the time since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.
CNN has it dead even at 48, but McCain now leads by one in the poll of polls. Zogby, meanwhile, is apparently claiming that McCain’s bounce started during the Democratic convention. Exit question: What can we safely conclude from the Gallup poll? It’s impossible to parse how much of the bounce is from Palin versus McCain; the buzz and public curiosity about her is obviously helping, but reaction to her speech was fully incorporated yesterday whereas McCain’s only finally landed today, with a two-point net gain. Isn’t the real lesson here simply that Obama’s supposedly epochal speech from Mt. Olympus wasn’t that epochal? 75,000 people in the stands to witness the apotheosis — and he’s five points down a little more than a week later. Keep smiling, Messiah.
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MAVMENTUM!*
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 1:40 PM
obama whining that mccain stole his change theme isn’t helping him.
nor are his flip flops on near every issue he originally based his presidency on.
lorien1973 on September 8, 2008 at 1:42 PM
I hate polls.
People just need to ignore polls (positive or negative) and make sure they actually vote McCain/Palin in November (and get as many as possible to do the same).
This is no time for a breather.
PBoilermaker on September 8, 2008 at 1:42 PM
“National polls aren’t important.” – Obama-sama
Not the tune he was singing a few weeks ago, eh?
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 1:43 PM
It takes several days past an event for the full bounce. Even 40 millions is only a fraction of the electorate. It takes a few days for discussion to spread among people who didn’t see it for them to change their opinion.
pedestrian on September 8, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Guess it is time for bho to send the wife out again to get the base back in line. MO does have a way with words.
L
letget on September 8, 2008 at 1:44 PM
My very poll oriented liberal friend is crapping bricks right about now.
bj1126 on September 8, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Good news. Hopefully Obama makes some huge mistake on O’ in the next few nights to compound his defeat.
lodge on September 8, 2008 at 1:44 PM
With this kind of surge with Palins announcement, he may want to start naming some conservative men and women to potential Cabinet positions. Keep the fire burning.
roninacreage on September 8, 2008 at 1:44 PM
DX: Barackanemia
TX: Take 1 Joe Biden and throw under the bus. Repeat as needed.
bloggless on September 8, 2008 at 1:44 PM
What it shows is that most of the people voting for Obama were in the stands.
They can have the polls, I will take the Momentum…
right2bright on September 8, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Yep, the Baracky Campaign apparently doesn’t care about national polls any longer.
Gawd, not only are the wheels off the bus, the damn thing tipped-over and is screeching down the road on its side.
Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 1:45 PM
This is like Rocky IV when Balboa’s corner man tells him “you cut him, he’s bleeding, he’s human” after he gets a good shot in at Drago’s face. THE ONE has been exposed.
D0WNT0WN on September 8, 2008 at 1:45 PM
The only poll that matters is in November, we’ll meet at dawn*.
*I’ll bring the donuts
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 1:45 PM
any internals on CNN poll? I’m waiting for an AP/Ispos poll showing Obama winning still and of course be heavily skewed to dems
jp on September 8, 2008 at 1:45 PM
I have two friends who tend to lean dem and both of them “love” Governor Palin and will be voting for McCain. One of them was previously for BO.
bloggless on September 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Second look at Hillary?
Dash on September 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM
So is one of the guys in my office.
BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Agreed. I’d prefer Obama stay a few points ahead for the next months/weeks until the election. But these numbers are what they are. Even with higher sample sizes, they are nothing more than a ‘man on the street’ interview. Interesting on their own, but not an accurate accounting of the 120+ millions of people who are going to actually cast their votes.
wise_man on September 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Polls mean everything. When you’re ahead.
Now they are meaningless. Just ask anyone in the media and the Obama camp. Redundant, I know.
roninacreage on September 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Agreed.
NTWR on September 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM
I remember in 2004, the RCP avg. ended up being dead on
jp on September 8, 2008 at 1:47 PM
You think Biden’s sitting with his back to the wall everywhere he goes now?
Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Let’s not get too complacent, though. Keep working all the way through election day.
BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 1:47 PM
I’d much rather start looking at battleground states. Let’s be honest folks — this comes down to essentially this year’s “Big 12″ — NH, PA, VA, FL, OH, MI, WI, IA, NM, NV, CO, MN. John wins all of those he can even lose one other ‘04 state. John wins the right 8 or so of them he just has to hold to the rest of the ‘04 states.
/let’s do this thing!
Buckaroo on September 8, 2008 at 1:48 PM
I figured they were keeping him in his cage until they got wherever they were going for the day.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 1:48 PM
The like a 20 point lead in conservative numbers. Can’t wait for the October surprise.
Tommy_G on September 8, 2008 at 1:48 PM
His pants….”Change” he can believe in…..
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 1:48 PM
It seems to have been Maverick’s speech. It was on CSPAN last night and it actually seemed to age a bit better (like fine wine). I don’t think that the pundits (or junkies) liked it because it wasn’t very flashy and Johnny Mac is never going to be a good speaker. But it really was very authentic.. It really was about who McCain was as a person and what he believes. And the ending of course was very, very moving.
Illinidiva on September 8, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Remember Ronald Reagan in 1984: Run like you’re 10 points behind. It’s good to be encouraged, and it’s nice for AP stop with the compulsive pessimism, but there will be more ups and downs before Election Day. Getting too high with this just makes the downs all that much worse.
Tommygun on September 8, 2008 at 1:49 PM
I heard Jon Voight mention there is something about to be released that links Obama to Ayers more so than already.
there has to be some sort of 527 ads coming down the pipe at Obama with all the dirt on him.
jp on September 8, 2008 at 1:49 PM
He just installed Kevlar hair-plugs.
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 1:49 PM
He can’t even fill a town hall up in Green Bay, in my beautiful hopefully soon to be red Wisconsin.
BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Obama’s speech was not memorable and was not brilliant, contrary to what the lapdog media claims…
Seixon on September 8, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Right about now, Michelle is firing up her broom.
bloggless on September 8, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Now Allah- don’t you go all optimistic-in-the-pants on us…..
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 1:51 PM
If the lead keeps growing, will we be able to dub this a “flubber” bounce?
AverageJoe on September 8, 2008 at 1:51 PM
I heard Obama’s trying to get McCain to fall for the “you vote for me and Ill vote for you” trick.
Chuck Schick on September 8, 2008 at 1:52 PM
What’s the guess on which issue obama will give up next?
.
Missile defense?
Taxes?(whoops, he already did that today)
Public Financing? ( he could try this, since its too late)
Earmarks? A million bucks a day obama? (he’s trying to do this now)
Abortion?
.
darn, how will be move to the right next?
shooter on September 8, 2008 at 1:52 PM
I figured they were keeping him in his cage until they got wherever they were going for the day.
Must be the same one in which they hold Michelle; where is that America-loving patriot lately?
“Kevlar hair plugs”? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 1:53 PM
They must think I’m stupid.
AverageJoe on September 8, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Naw, Biden’s in a good old fashioned plastic cage… MO’s is titanium….
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 1:54 PM
darn, how will be move to the right next?
shooter on September 8, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Baracky is planning on dumping Biden and nominating Ann Coulter.
Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Allah,
My only concern and pessimism surrounding a meteoric rise of a McCain/Palin supernova win on Nov. 4th, is the impending need to publicly finance the elite/libtard’s psychiatric counseling and stabilization and such as would bankrupt our economy…
I just saying…
Mcguyver on September 8, 2008 at 1:55 PM
MOOSE-MENTUM!
gridlock2 on September 8, 2008 at 1:55 PM
It will be interesting to see what a prolonged McCain bounce will do to Obama’s fundraising. If the leaners diminish and the true believers are all that remain, those donations could come at a high price.
rw on September 8, 2008 at 1:55 PM
What’s so surprising? Once he was basically assured of the nomination he started losing primaries to Hillary.
rbj on September 8, 2008 at 1:56 PM
Somehow, I don’t think he is.
4shoes on September 8, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Over at kos they have a poll post “panic edition” (his words not mine). He’s claiming that the state polls show a lead in electoral votes…funny thing is he’s using the state polls from over a week ago to make his case.
equanimous on September 8, 2008 at 1:57 PM
When Obama was up by eight in some of these daily polls I said it was a non-issue so I have to stick to that re. McCain. There will be ebb and flow but I still expect McCain to settle in at 53% when it counts, in November.
grdred944 on September 8, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Regarding the Pessimism meter:
I realize the implications, if this trend continues, of having to accept a likelihood that McCain will win in the election. When a vast majority of indicators point to a McCain presidency and the shards of pessimism that are clung to become so irrelevant that entertaining them borders on irrational, there is still one thing that can provide solace for you.
McCain is a liberal.
hisfrogness on September 8, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Landslide……
I am betting even Kennedyshire goes for Maverick.
Hening on September 8, 2008 at 1:57 PM
If the leaners diminish and the true believers are all that remain, those donations could come at a high price.
rw on September 8, 2008 at 1:55 PM
$20 campaign donations can take a hell of a bite out of a lib’s part-time Cinnabon™ paycheck.
Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Every time you do that, it cracks me up. I picture Tony Shalhoub in Galaxy Quest eating on the descent to the planet, with that strange smile on his face.
beatcanvas on September 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
TV viewers: “Is it me, or is the Emperor naked?
The linked story notes that the CNN poll has ahd few undecideds for months. This is something many poll-readers do not sufficiently notice. Different polls put different amounts of pressure on respondents to commit. And I suspect the more pressure you put on for a definitive answer, the closer the numbers will be in general. (and that cuts both ways)
Karl on September 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
He is the nutroots and media’s creation not the donk grassroots(except one small slice).
Consequently sans a huge mistake by McCain there was no “there” there.
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Obama reached his peak of popularity well before Hillary conceded the race. His “bitter clinger” comment, Rev. Wright and the first reports about William Ayers began causing working class Dems to rethink the whole Messiah thing. Obama’s inability to carry key states like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania confirmed that. McCain made it worse with a brilliant series of ads that effectively depicted Obama as an object of ridicule. The Dem Convention stabilized his fall, but only briefly.
Now that the conventions are over I expect Obama’s decline to not only resume, but accelerate. Palin’s pick as VP has created more contradictions in Obama’s argument than even a once-fawning press can ignore, and it has given working class Dems a place to go. Obama’s stuttering, hesitant efforts to rationalize his positions and his whiny complaints about the Republican meanies are like acid on his celebrity facade, but right now he’s got no better strategy. (Palin as Cheney II? Oh, brother.) Also, the lumpen presence of Biden on the ticket also serves as moonbat buzzkill and the hair plug vote is too small to counterbalance the loss. When the press and Obama’s youth supporters began sensing a loser, they’ll drop him.
I know that anything can happen between now and November 5, but at this point I’d put my money on a full scale collapse of the Obama campaign by Election Day.
Cicero43 on September 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
LOL!!!
Comment from The DailyKos:
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Hey, let’s push a Biden-Eagleton meme.
Vyce on September 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
That was a funny movie. Not quite the reference I was making, but hey I’ll roll with it. :)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 1:59 PM
Holy sh!t, you posted that right when I was posting my dumb Eagleton joke.
But now I have to sit back and laugh uproariously at the irony of the nutroots considering Eagletonning their candidate after spreading the Eagleton meme for Palin just last week.
Vyce on September 8, 2008 at 2:00 PM
I’m sorely disappointed in Allahpundit. I was expecting the long-delayed 10.
Baphomet on September 8, 2008 at 2:01 PM
Where’s J_Gocht, I wonder? Curious if he’s still ranting “It’s only a matter of time before Maverick dumps her”… ;)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:02 PM
ESKIMOMENTUM!
wildweasel on September 8, 2008 at 2:02 PM
He’ll be at 10 after a McCain/palin win in November.
PBoilermaker on September 8, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Also, I would again urge everyone to look at the RCP average chart. Again, not the lines for each candidate, but the chart of the gap. Obama has been trending down since late June, with only the World Tour and the Convention interrupting that trend.
He got nominated as a new kind of pol, then started running in the general as the same ol’ kind of pol, which revealed him as an empty suit.
Picking Biden = old politics
Boilerplate convo speeches = old politcs
Now he claims he will go negative (as the MSM has already been doing)? More old politics.
Camp Obama has not quite figured this out.
Karl on September 8, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Can someone explain something…
Obama was up about 2 before his convention… last week Gallup had him up 8 or 9
Then came the RNC and we have McCain up 5. Erasing Obama’s bounce and creating a lead.
How is McCain not that at least double the bounce of Obama?
Chuck Schick on September 8, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Allah will go 10 on Wednesday, after the election. No sooner.
beatcanvas on September 8, 2008 at 2:05 PM
I agree with those that caution not to get too cocky and that polls aren’t everything.
However, unfavorable polls can cause panic and depression on the Obama side, especially when they’ve held the lead for so long and don’t know how to get it back. Panic leads to mistakes and plummeting morale depresses turnout.
Obama can’t afford any mistakes right now and he can’t win without high turnout among blacks and young people. If they begin to give up on him, it’s all over.
Missy on September 8, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Noooooooo. Biden’s perfect. He was picked because of Obama’s poor response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia, even though he cuts against Obama’s change theme. At this point he’s basically a non-factor. We get to ignore him and fight two on one.
BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Clearly endemic racism. No other explanation.
LimeyGeek on September 8, 2008 at 2:05 PM
CNN doesn’t give much info, and says they just polled ‘adults’. No breakdown on Party ID of who they sampled, given
jp on September 8, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Comment from The HuffPo’s:
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Oh, absolutely. That British tranny at the MTV awards told me this.
Vyce on September 8, 2008 at 2:07 PM
A POLL SAYS MCCAIN IS AHEAD
OMIGOD MCCAIN IS GOING TO WIN
Dave Rywall on September 8, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Way too early. Early October leaves far less time for the media to come up with the big fat lies. A “desperate media” campaign should also begin to maginalize their fabrications that will certainly materialize. Rather-gate TWO will pop up from the boys at MSNBC even in their non-anchor positions.
Keep hammering Obama’s plans to bankrupt small businesses, (those grossing 200k) that will bleed employment growth. And the only drilling Obama plans is the whole in our pocketbooks.
Rovin on September 8, 2008 at 2:09 PM
That we still have to vote to cinch this thing.
Mr_Magoo on September 8, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Oh I’ve been checking the nutroots out today-
they’re at DEFCON4 levels.
They’re giving meltdowns a bad name. LOL!
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:09 PM
What does a moonbat cling to when he’s feeling bitter?
Cicero43 on September 8, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Awesome. I am glad you are on our side now Dave.
carbon_footprint on September 8, 2008 at 2:09 PM
A relative of mine was at the Obamathon in Denver and said The Speech was just a big list of giveaways, and everybody was talking about it. “How in the hell is he going to pay for this” was the talk of the night.
People tuned in to McCain to hear McCain after he signaled his true politics by choosing Palin. They liked what they heard. I sure did. I identified with the story of his transformation in Hanoi. Many of us too were somewhat broken after 9/11–I sure was–and rediscovered our love for our country. He put into words what we felt in our hearts.
“We don’t hide from history. We make history.”
Amen, John.
PattyJ on September 8, 2008 at 2:09 PM
QUICK LAME RETORT
HA HA I’M CLEVER
LimeyGeek on September 8, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Lol. That’s why, for a lefty Canuck, you’re ok in my book.
BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 2:10 PM
One thing to keep in mind:
Don’t read too much into tomorrow if there’s a drop (There probably will be). The day after McCain’s speech he got a +7.8 and the past two days it’s been a little below +3.0. Tomorrow the 7.8 won’t be included in the tracking so it’ll dip a little, either to a 2 or a 3.
Typhonsentra on September 8, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Gosh Drywall! That’s what your fellow libtards are saying!
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I guess that should have been the whole hole?
Rovin on September 8, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Dave is approaching critical mass!
Explosion imminent!
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:12 PM
We don’t need these polls.
Obama okay for drilling
Obama okay with tax cuts
Obama okay with the surge
The dems internal polling, which is more accurate then any of these (since they pay big-time for these things) obviously states, “YOU ARE OUT OF STEP WITH THE PEOPLE”.
Just look at his reaction.
If he (Obama) felt his numbers were strong, we wouldn’t shift these major issues.
They are in trouble, too many issue shifts too quickly…and Pelosi and Reid know it. The heat is on.
right2bright on September 8, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Alphie? Oh, Aaaallllpppphhhiiieeeeee?
Seven Percent Solution on September 8, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Oh look who it is.
Davey, we’re not saying “OMG A POLL SAYS MCCAIN’S AHEAD VICTORY IS OURS” we’re just noting that in about 10 days worth of time, Obama went from up about 8 points or so to now down by 5, and trending data over the last few weeks hasn’t been kind.
Doesn’t mean that he still can’t or won’t win, but surely even in your little nutroots heart (or whatever you people have passing for one) you’d understand that it hasn’t been a good couple of weeks for the guy. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a deck so thoroughly stacked in the guy’s favor to win the White House, and yet he still can’t seem to put away a guy who he should be beating handily by double digit points.
Vyce on September 8, 2008 at 2:13 PM
That’s ok-
I can patch Drywall…..
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:13 PM
This just in ……..
Gallup polls CNN anchors and reporters.
100% say they are registered independents with a teeny-tiny, ever-so-small and insignificant leaning towards Obama.
fogw on September 8, 2008 at 2:13 PM
conspiracy theories.
rw on September 8, 2008 at 2:13 PM
…in other news…
HotAir.com has reached the 1 millionth + blog hit mark on the day after Lipstick Pitbill’s speech.
Where’s Allah on the Donald Trump-o-meter?
Mcguyver on September 8, 2008 at 2:14 PM
No drywall you mean:
when barry is ahead barry is winning, when McCain is ahead Barry is winning because of cell phones….
glad drinking that turpentine didn’t kill you Barry will need as many illegal votes as he can get so come south to a swing state.
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 2:14 PM
All caps really underscores the panic, doesn’t it folks?
Chuck Schick on September 8, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Polls are nice, and Mac’s got the all important momentum, but need to build on it…Keep working.
Spirit of 1776 on September 8, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Inflatable Obama dolls….
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:15 PM
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