Still bouncing: New Gallup gives McCain five-point lead over Obama
posted at 1:38 pm on September 8, 2008 by Allahpundit
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This is the three-day tracker, not the daily snapshot, which has him up 50-46 among registered voters. Yesterday’s tracking poll: 48/45, with the pessimism meter fidgety at level nine.
No movement today on that. Not until he hits 50.
That [six-point bounce] is slightly better than Barack Obama’s four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points…
McCain’s current 49% share of the vote is his best performance in Gallup tracking to date. His five-point lead is his best since early May, when he led Obama by six points (48% to 42%). Obama has led throughout much of the campaign, and has led nearly all of the time since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.
CNN has it dead even at 48, but McCain now leads by one in the poll of polls. Zogby, meanwhile, is apparently claiming that McCain’s bounce started during the Democratic convention. Exit question: What can we safely conclude from the Gallup poll? It’s impossible to parse how much of the bounce is from Palin versus McCain; the buzz and public curiosity about her is obviously helping, but reaction to her speech was fully incorporated yesterday whereas McCain’s only finally landed today, with a two-point net gain. Isn’t the real lesson here simply that Obama’s supposedly epochal speech from Mt. Olympus wasn’t that epochal? 75,000 people in the stands to witness the apotheosis — and he’s five points down a little more than a week later. Keep smiling, Messiah.
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Sorry. My first gaffe.
Mcguyver on September 8, 2008 at 2:15 PM
*HEADEXPLODES*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:16 PM
Here’s another HuffPo meltdown: We’re Gonna Frickin’ Lost This Thing.
Warning: the text is not as cleaned up as the headline.
Terrie on September 8, 2008 at 2:17 PM
in the debates, just talk about how Obama got Biden’s son a Million dollar Pork Earmark and note the Maverick’s excellent record and that Obama/Biden are for more of the same corruption
jp on September 8, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Styrofoam Greek Obama dolls….
(sorry- I don’t know when to quit)
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:18 PM
I guess it’s tough to *eat* in that condition.
forest on September 8, 2008 at 2:20 PM
I would say, let’s not. But if it was done, after Axelrod was out there saying that McCain botched the biggest, most important decision of the campaign (Palin), then it may speed the meltdown.
Leopold Stotch on September 8, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Or Torricelli!
lorien1973 on September 8, 2008 at 2:21 PM
I’d rather push an Obama-Toricelli meme.
MarkTheGreat on September 8, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Do the Dems REALLY believe that?? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH….
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:21 PM
dang HuffPo is full of lunatics
jp on September 8, 2008 at 2:21 PM
He wasn’t Zeus. It wasn’t a deliverance. What it was, compared to the usually boring McCain, but who was pretty positive in his acceptance speech, bitterness and victimhood. Not the time/place for that. Add that ‘glorious’ backdrop and the country went “what’s all this?” Then came Sarah and answered “Styrophoam columns”.
Oddly I don’t care too much about polls, especially this year, because probably people will lie more than they usually do. At the same time I don’t like it when McCain is ahead too much because it instills fear.
I believe Berlin was the beginning of the downfall for Obama. Russia/Georgia was then the definitive moment. Palin is overshadowing a great deal of those two. The country had opened its eyes to Berlin and Russia and went “holly sh*t”.
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Speaking of Obama associations, Pat Dollard has a classic vid of Father
PflegerPhlegm worried that someone has stolen his show.RMCS_USN on September 8, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Let’s please keep the pessimism meter going… Please, please, please. It seems like J Mac’s speech was very well received, but this is still a weak economy, the unemployment numbers are high, and the President is still very unpopular. This is still a Dem. election to lose.
Illinidiva on September 8, 2008 at 2:22 PM
You know….this would be the perfect time to troll the waters of the nutroot sites…….
…just sayin…..
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:22 PM
I think McCain’s pick of Palin not only helped because of her appeal for the ticket as a whole, but it helped the public’s view of McCain himself. They thought he was just this boring old white guy who was going to pick another boring old white guy, and when he picks this fascinating woman, it makes them think “maybe I should take a second look at this guy.” And apparently they’ve liked what they’ve seen.
Dudley Smith on September 8, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Good to have you back with us, Dave. Any suggestions for Barry on what to do? Is Hillary really gonna come out full bore for him and save it? Does he need to clarify his position on the effect of increased taxes on the economy? Should he spend less time fundraising? Should he buy a hunting license in flyover country? What sounds good to you?
a capella on September 8, 2008 at 2:23 PM
All good points! John Kerry’s crown for flip-floppin’ is getting passed onto Obama faster than a Burger-King chef.
Pelosi and Reid should be working on their own personal EXIT STRATEGIES—-something they both should be good at.
Rovin on September 8, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Obama’s draw has always seemed to me to be glamor, having people see him as great because everyone else seems to. It is strong, but brittle. If it breaks, it has no spring back.
I hesitate to sound too optimistic, but we could be looking at Obama in free fall.
Count to 10 on September 8, 2008 at 2:24 PM
The comments from the DailyPos and HuffPoo are incredible. The rats are wildly slush-skiing. Derision has set in. If they lose in Nov. they will be incurable.
Invest in furniture stocks, couches in particular, and in psychology/psychiatry, now. Bets are pretty good.
Naively, they believe that Hillary would accept a VP slot. If I’d be her, should I be asked, if Biden misteriosly falls ‘ill’, I’d show them the biggest finger, of course behind the curtains.
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Curse you for that image.
Vyce on September 8, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Nice to see Joe Biden isnt feeling the effects of his old Vietnam war wound
William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 2:25 PM
The Obama Surge has clearly failed.
He needs to pull-out ASAP.
It was a campaign built on lies.
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Let’s settle down. McCain/Palin being ahead is just great as far as I am concerned. There are, however, those Rep. voters who will stay home because they will think McCain has got it won.
It aint over until Obamara cries racist America and the riots begin.
The only numbers that count are those in November.
BobK on September 8, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Also, invest in Canadian diapers.
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 2:25 PM
I even hate myself for that one….
FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 2:26 PM
If McCain/Palin’s numbers go up at all tomorrow in Gallop’s three-day tracker, the real lesson here will be that Senator McCain’s acceptance speech was not just a “bloop double,” as some blogger referred to it.
Loxodonta on September 8, 2008 at 2:27 PM
You are missing the big point in the polls though. The model currently being used is based upon Democrats being much more enthusiastic about their candidates. The gap between those who identify themselves as Democrats and Republicans is now down to one. This weekend adjustments will be made evening out the playing field if those numbers of party identification remain the same.
With severe over polling of Democrats versus Republicans, John McCain has taken the lead. Can anyone say tsunami?
Jdripper on September 8, 2008 at 2:28 PM
I wish he would dump Biden to have Hillary come on board…then after he dumps Biden, Hill gives him the finger and says see you in 2012!
SDarchitect on September 8, 2008 at 2:29 PM
There’s a growing group of us who hate you too. :)
Okay, so… finished the HP article. No wonder the Lefties are so far out in left field… they MUST live in some kind of fantasy world. I seriously don’t understand how any intelligent adult can believe half the stuff that blogger wrote.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:29 PM
DeweyWins on September 8, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Wow they really are upset. I don’t remember panic setting in when Obama got his bounce. I expected it. Did the other side not think McCain could get a bounce?
I am not getting too excited until the end of this week if the numbers hold up…. YIPEEEEEE!
I also want some new state polls and since those aren’t done as often it probably would be better to wait until the end of this week for them.
My guess is that Palin works really well in the West. She is the epitome of the fronteer woman most of us out here grew up admiring. Our pioneer greatgrandmother’s were that kind of tough! But me I’ll take a year to recover from having a baby. GEEEZ I thought her type was gone.
petunia on September 8, 2008 at 2:30 PM
So that Obama interview with George S, it seemed to go horribly for Barry. How much of an impact will that have? This is traditionally when people start really tuning in, right?
hump1201 on September 8, 2008 at 2:30 PM
McCain/Palin need to hit the Congress hard. They’ve been ranting against Washington in general, the GOP, Obama and even Bush 43. They need to direct their ire against the Congress, with special emphasis of who’s leading it. Make Pelosi/Reid the punching dolls.
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 2:30 PM
If the Democrats get less than 25% of the vote, then they are no longer automatically placed on the ballot each year. They have to go out and sign petitions like everyone else.
We can use this to entice those who might be inclined to stay at home on election day.
MarkTheGreat on September 8, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Does anyone have a list of 527’s for McCain?
Right_of_Attila on September 8, 2008 at 2:32 PM
” We’re coming off the worst eight years in our country’s history. ”
This is from the HuffPo post.
The worst 8 years in the country’s history.
Worse than the depression.
Worse than the 70’s (stagflation and Disco!).
Worse then the Civil War.
These people have lost all sense of reality - It is sad.
AMDG on September 8, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Terrie:
That HuffPo link was great. Just one of the gems.
***I mean it: there is no more functioning press in this country. And without a real press the corporate and religious Republicans can lie all they want and get away with it. And that’s the 51% advantage.
This is one of the 5% who think the media is unbalanced to the right. Later in the article he argues that the internet is 50-50 (even though lefty sites have higher hit numbers and sights like google, youtube and digg are all tilted left). He also argues that the right likes to label those who disagree with them as evil, without noting that most of the vitriol comes from his own side.
Thanks for the link.
BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Exactly. No wonder Limbaugh refers to Liberalism as a mental illness.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Which would include election day- November 4th. Either McCain or Obama’s campaign is going to collapse by the 5th and you heard it here first! ;)
highhopes on September 8, 2008 at 2:34 PM
The key issue is still energy. The Republicans need to run against Pelosi, Reid and the Dalibama.
They need to be blunt and let people know that a vote for Heath Shuler (fir example) is a vote for Pelosi and therefore a vote for high gas prices.
AMDG on September 8, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Maybe true, but, it might not hurt for McCain to associate with possible cabinet appointments, drop some hints, and build the suspense.
Count to 10 on September 8, 2008 at 2:36 PM
I saw that too!
carbon_footprint on September 8, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Not evil, or even stupid - just delusional.
AMDG on September 8, 2008 at 2:37 PM
I think they mostly worry that Europeans didn’t like Bush. They don’t seem to even live in this country anymore.
petunia on September 8, 2008 at 2:37 PM
They don’t seem to even live on this PLANET anymore.
ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 2:43 PM
gotta forgive Dave Rywall, if I was a HuffPo clone, I’d go crazy for some real adult conversation and come over to Hot Air too.
kirkill on September 8, 2008 at 2:45 PM
The American voters woke up and said “Yeah, we want change, but not the Obama kind”.
Obama/Biden “This is a depressing country. Here’s the Gargantuan governmental tit. Suck on it, limitlessly. I’ll exploit the rich to pay for it”.
McCain/Palin “Our country has a few challneges. Here’s how we’re going to fix them”.
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Now, it feels kind of weird to defend Dave, but I have to say he’s nowhere NEAR that bad.
Alphie on the other hand….
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Hey, let’s push a Biden-Eagleton meme.
Vyce on September 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Marines for Mccain on September 8, 2008 at 2:48 PM
A POLL SAYS MCCAIN IS AHEAD OMIGOD MCCAIN IS GOING TO WIN…………./sarc
Fixed it for ya, Dave. I don’t want people to get the mistaken impression you have emerged from the bat cave into the sunlight.
ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 2:48 PM
I spoke with a few Europeans yesterday. They are very depressed. That might be a good indicator of things to come.
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 2:48 PM
I have a job…I have food….I don’t get shot for not mowing my lawn like the little red book says!
Thank God I live in North America!
//Drywall in ‘Awakenings’
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Not hungry?
fossten on September 8, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Unfortunately for Dave, he does live in Canada, which means that if he eats a strip of bacon within 100 feet of a Muslim, he risks being hauled before the Human Rights Star Chamber.
ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 2:55 PM
At that time, after that mental image? Heck no.
Now?
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Personally, I think Jon Voight is right. It’s hard to believe a man like Obama with his relationship with the worse Chicago has to offer, that there not more new coming. Two month before a major election is a very LONG time. Anything can and will happen. Anyone who think McCain/Palin have this election won could very easily be wrong. Hopefully, Wright,Ayers will give us a October surprise.
try again later on September 8, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Barry lied, campaign died.
JimK on September 8, 2008 at 3:57 PM
Maybe people are just tired of Obama.
Terrye on September 8, 2008 at 4:54 PM
I am a right-leaning independent and will NOT be voting for McCain as I thought I would be until he made his VP pick.
It is too in my face the constant pics of Barracuda with the moose she killed.
I wonder if it felt strange at all to Palin, a hunter, having an animal-welfare-ANTI-hunting advocate writing her BIG debut speech?
http://www.matthewscully.com/sportsman_politics.htm
http://www.matthewscully.com/matthew.htm
Maybe Sarah Palin can learn something very valuable from this great speech writer and merciful man, Matt Scully, about being kind and compassionate to God’s creatures!
One example of the extreme cruelties of hunting:
Anchorage Daily News
Caribou slaughter leaves calves stranded
Published: July 29th, 2008
”Hunters from the villages of Point Hope and Kivalina are suspected of massacring more than 100 caribou and leaving at least half of them to rot on the tundra earlier this month, according to Alaska Wildlife Troopers.
Calves were left stranded, some still trying to suckle milk from the decomposing cows two weeks after the slaughter.”
There is a photo at the Anchorage Daily News of a caribou calf as it stands by its DEAD MOTHER! This is SICK and anyone who condones hunting and its inherent cruelties is creepy, including Barracuda!
http://www.adn.com/wildlife/story/478088.html
Shelby on September 8, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Somewhere, a junior senator from NY is cackling. :)
ThePrez on September 8, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Animals taste good…
they have a distressing habit of not committing suicide so I can be harmonically pure on eating them….
I reflect on the injustice of it all for about two bites….about once a decade………skewed multiple times to my first decade….skewed to the first half of the first decade….
sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 5:30 PM
I worked with Danish company and used to get an earful about how the rest of Europe hated America. This was in late 2000, and I was naive. I argued with them about how much the USA has done and sacrificed for Europe, and probably seemed like a real dolt. They were right, Western Europe doesn’t like, us so boo-freakin’ hoo.
Hening on September 8, 2008 at 5:35 PM
I think I mentioned this here before. Psychoanalyzing Barry, it’s starting to become apparent to me that he wants to lose. I read those Asia Times articles, and, while I wouldn’t bet the house on them, they make sense to me.
mr.blacksheep on September 8, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Isn’t this like the 18th, or 19th time you’ve posted the same blurb, or a variation thereof, on different HotAir threads within the last 4 days? What gives? Are you disappointed or frustrated that no one is responding to it, so you post it *again* and *again*??
RD on September 8, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Wow. Eastern or Western Europeans?
I know at least one American living in [Western] Europe, a lifelong Democrat, who will now be voting for McCain/Palin, after seeing the Real Deal on Wednesday night. (Not to mention Obama’s utter inappropriateness, and the treatment of Hillary by both the party and the media.)
RD on September 8, 2008 at 6:12 PM
I’m calling a Moby here.
BillH on September 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
Well, you *know* how it is will all those emanations and penumbras. (Or is that only here, stateside?) Anyhow, smells yummy!
RD on September 8, 2008 at 6:15 PM
Mao’s little red book?
electric-rascal on September 8, 2008 at 7:46 PM
Yeah baby! Punch away, place the blame squarely with them and OBummer for growth in unemployment, which is caused by price hikes, which is rooted in higher energy prices (due to excess regulation of energy companies).
Hammer home that the plethora of OBummer tax increases will fall on businesses, that will just result in price increases, more inflation, more job losses.
Point out that their tired class-envy rhetoric will no longer persuade anyone. Expose the Democrat lust to debauch the nation and usher in full-blown socialism!
Reminder: OBummer interviewed on O’Reilly tonight and two more nights (first interview show was Friday). I hope Bill has a set and asks him the tough questions!
electric-rascal on September 8, 2008 at 8:01 PM
Lame guys! It’s just killing you that non-liberals like myself and Repub speech writer Matt Scully are exposing the evils of hunting.
Hey did I mention Matt’s got a great article on this subject?
http://www.matthewscully.com/sportsman_politics.htm
Check it out–it just might catapult you outta the caveman days….
Shelby on September 9, 2008 at 12:09 AM
Okay, so I was warm.
:-D :-D :-D You crack me up.
Hey did I mention it must take a lot of effort to appear casual? (Less so in the modern day of cut & paste, I imagine.) A shame no one’s tuning in, though. What’s *wrong* with these fellow comrades-in-arms of yours?
RD on September 9, 2008 at 8:23 AM
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