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Huge: 20-point shift towards McCain among white women since last month in new ABC poll

posted at 6:20 pm on September 8, 2008 by Allahpundit
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He’s still down one overall among registereds and up two among likelies, but Gallup pegged white independents last week as the only demographic group where there’s still a major gender gap and thus room for movement. And now, maybe, here it is. ABC doesn’t break down white women by political affiliation, but the 20-point swing is split almost evenly between Obama losing points (nine) and McCain gaining (11). Can’t be only conservative white women who are responsible for that.

To what or whom do we owe this happy reversal, I wonder. The left has been telling us for 10 days how insulted women are by Maverick’s very cynical pick of our token yokel with two X chromosomes, so it surely can’t be her. Hmmm.

I say again: Hmmm.

Views of Palin are highly partisan, as noted in an ABC News poll last Thursday, and registered voters in this survey divide evenly, 47-45 percent, on whether or not she has the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president. Nonetheless she does inspire personal affinity in her peer groups. Her high 67 percent favorable rating among white women goes higher still, to 80 percent, among white women with children at home. And 71 percent of white mothers say the pick makes them more confident in McCain’s decision-making as president.

McCain’s also gained 18 points in enthusiasm and leads Obama by 69/24 on the C-in-C question, proving that not all of this is Palinmania. Oh, and the favorables/unfavorables? Palin 58/28, Obama 58/36.

Don’t look now, but Maverick’s suddenly up two in Colorado as well. Exit question: Hey, you know who I bet is enjoying this even more than McCain is?


Blowback

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Comment pages: 1 2

I hate this photo of Palin, she looks like the incarnation of Peggy Hill.

AP, get a new one, please.

trailboss on September 8, 2008 at 6:21 PM

Those polls also had bogus weightings that favored the Dems as well, so the reality should be even better for McCain than the polls indicate.

blue13326 on September 8, 2008 at 6:22 PM

LOL, SARAH PALIN…I wonder why.

VOTE McCain * Palin 2008

byteshredder on September 8, 2008 at 6:22 PM

AP, that is the scariest frigging photo of Hillary I have ever seen.

She looks like she’s about to swallow my soul.

Well-Armed Lamb on September 8, 2008 at 6:23 PM

I hate this photo of Palin, she looks like the incarnation of Peggy Hill.

Funny. That’s the same reason why I like that particular photo so much.

SteakRules on September 8, 2008 at 6:23 PM

The surge is working.

fusionaddict on September 8, 2008 at 6:23 PM

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAUGH!!!

Curse you Allah! CUUUURRRRSSSE YOOOOOUUU!!!

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 6:24 PM

White women kick ass.

Tengripundit on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM

allah I posted this at Ace’s site also.

I think both you and Ace are missing the big data point in the story.

that Obama only gets 48% experience to Gov. Palin’s 47% the Americian people have made the connection that their #1 is no better than our #2. McCain’s decsion of picking Gov Palin far from taking the “experience card” off the table brought it right in the face of all americians in a way that ads never could. It is telling that the data point is buried at the bottom of the story.

unseen on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM

Bill and Hillary are dancing the czardas.

Shhhhh, don’t tell the DNC, though.

Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM

trailboss on September 8, 2008 at 6:21 PM

What do you have against Peggy Hill?

PappaMac on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM

To what or whom do we owe this happy reversal, I wonder. The left has been telling us for 10 days how insulted women are by Maverick’s very cynical pick of our token yokel with two X chromosomes, so it surely can’t be her. Hmmm.

Funny.

Spirit of 1776 on September 8, 2008 at 6:28 PM

Hey, you know who I bet is enjoying this even more than McCain is?

Hmmm, possibly!

upinak on September 8, 2008 at 6:28 PM

OH NOOOOZZZ!!!! THEY’RE STEALING ALL THE WHITE WOMEN!!!!!

BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 6:28 PM

I told you so!

mad saint jack on September 8, 2008 at 6:28 PM

I sell propane and propane accessories..

LOVE ‘King of the Hill’..

DaveC on September 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM

Seriously, AP… frickin’ put a warning up before doing something like that.

Texas Rainmaker on September 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM

Exit question: Hey, you know who I bet is enjoying this even more than McCain is?

All good and well, Allah, but where is the needle on the Despair-o-Meter™?

ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM

Palinmania

Here to tell you–I’m now the victim of a personality cult.

Hey Allah, where’s my cartoon of Barry asking if it’s too late to dump Biden?

HelenW on September 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM

Seriously, AP… frickin’ put a warning up before doing something like that.

Texas Rainmaker on September 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM

Seconded for necessary emphasis!!

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

Do i have to say it?

R A C I S T S ! ! !

lorien1973 on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

Hmmm, does Oprahama have something to do with this?

Sorry MSM and Baracky, but there are far more women living in small towns across the U.S. than there are living in high-rise condos; you picked the wrong demographic to slander.

Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

look for biden to have health problems that will require him to step down soon. Joe Eagleton biden will be quitely resting at his home to revocer more quickly

unseen on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

You should have put a content warning before that Hillary picture .. damn ..that’s scary.

redrock on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

I had a feeling this was going to happen after watching Palin’s first speech in Dayton. I thought, “man, this woman pushes every button on the keyboard.”

rsrobinson on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

Hey Barry “typical white women” have had enough “sweetie”.

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

You need to put a sound bite of “The Cackle” with that picture of the wicked witch, er Hillary.

Oldnuke on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Yuck! I wonder if any bats live in that cave she calls a mouth?

That picture is scary!

winemkr on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Funny. That’s the same reason why I like that particular photo so much.

SteakRules on September 8, 2008 at 6:23 PM

My name is PeggyHill.

I’m really much more a fan of Bill Dauterive.

trailboss on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

White women kick ass.

Tengripundit on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM

LOL! If McCain wins, I guarantee you won’t be saying that when Hillary has all those voters in 2012.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM

Actually that is kind of a scarey image in my head.

upinak on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

given the internals, I don’t see how its that close unless they oversampled some of Obama’s key demographics

jp on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Guys,
Sorry for butting in on this thread like this, but I just finished something we’ve been waiting for.

No Charge.

Over.

1GooDDaDDy on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Governor Sarah Palin is a one woman SURGE!

I wonder if she has swayed any of the Hamas or Hezbolah kids working on Obama-bin-Biden’s campaign?

I think Hugo Chavez is still firmly in B. Hussein’s camp.

TheSitRep on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Those polls also had bogus weightings that favored the Dems as well, so the reality should be even better for McCain than the polls indicate.

blue13326 on September 8, 2008 at 6:22 PM

The methodology section says they oversampled African Americans (211 out of 1133 people), weighted to their correct share of the national population. I guess that has something to do with voter turnout.

BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 6:33 PM

I like this pic

http://pageoneq.com/images/lead/sarah_palin.jpg

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:33 PM

given the internals, I don’t see how its that close unless they oversampled some of Obama’s key demographics

jp on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

See above. They did.

BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 6:34 PM

makes sense given Obama’s pathetic attempts going after Palin

jp on September 8, 2008 at 6:34 PM

Some of the state by states are out now

Tuesday, September 09

Race Poll Results Spread

Pennsylvania Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
Ohio Rasmussen McCain 51, Obama 44 McCain +7
Florida Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie
Virginia Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 47 McCain +2
Colorado Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Washington SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4
Virginia SurveyUSA McCain 49, Obama 47 McCain +2

Monday, September 08
Race Poll Results Spread
Michigan PPP (D) Obama 47, McCain 46 Obama +1

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:34 PM

sell propane and propane accessories..

LOVE ‘King of the Hill’..

DaveC on September 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM

“Yes. No. Maybe. I dunno. Whatever”

juanito on September 8, 2008 at 6:35 PM

No Charge.
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Come on now, Barracudas don’t wear glasses.

Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 6:35 PM

yeah, African-American’s are not 20% of the voting population. not even close….geez.

so that, adjusted would mean that the real numbers are closer to Gallup probably and the other polls

jp on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:34 PM

I was waiting for AP to post those. Thanks.

BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

Bill and Hillary are dancing the czardas.

Shhhhh, don’t tell the DNC, though.

Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM

Czardas???? Entelechy are you a fellow Magyar??!!!

J.J. Sefton on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

1GooDDaDDy on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

A little refinement and it’s a bumper sticker. Good job!

Oldnuke on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

I love how the poll in the sidebar adds up to 101%

ChrisM on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

look for biden to have health problems that will require him to step down soon. Joe Eagleton biden will be quitely resting at his home to revocer more quickly

unseen on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

Yeap. Or sometimes known as the New Jersey two step.

And that photo tells me Hillary ain’t been flossing.

JonRoss on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

I LOVE WHITE WOMEN!!!!!!!!!

FU Michelle, you bitter America-Hating Beotch.

marklmail on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

McCain’s only down FOUR in Washington!!! Holy crap! I got some work to do at the UW.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

so that poll is saying that African Americans are 18% of all voters nationwide? ha, its more like 10% correct? or less even

jp on September 8, 2008 at 6:37 PM

The state by state breakdown doesn’t look nearly as encouraging as all the latest polling trends…

BadgerHawk on September 8, 2008 at 6:37 PM

I love a good show….pass the Jujyfruit’s please.

PappaMac on September 8, 2008 at 6:37 PM

I look at hillary and all I can think of is the WHite Witch in Narnia

jp on September 8, 2008 at 6:39 PM

FU Michelle, you bitter America-Hating Beotch.

WTF? Someone needs a smackdown…

Sacwannabe on September 8, 2008 at 6:39 PM

I can’t grab the video (geekless), but here’s a link to our local TV station carrying Palin and McCain’s comments.

See video on the right sight.

Kat_Mo on September 8, 2008 at 6:39 PM

look for biden to have health problems that will require him to step down soon. Joe Eagleton biden will be quitely resting at his home to revocer more quickly

unseen on September 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM

Nope, Barry’s burned his bridges and even if Hillary would relent,I don’t think she could turn Palinmania around in 8 weeks. it’s had enough time to take root. Death spiral trends now for The One.

a capella on September 8, 2008 at 6:40 PM

The movement is mostly in red areas. McCain still has to hammer the battlegrounds

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:40 PM

Michelle Obama is the ANTI-SARAH!!!

marklmail on September 8, 2008 at 6:40 PM

Washington SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4

Whu…??????

I’m think I remember the same sort of numbers from SurveyUSA in ‘04, but it wasn’t close @ the polls.

Still, they better get the ‘Cuda up here to stump for McCain and Rossi.

If Washington is in play, game over, man.

Editor on September 8, 2008 at 6:40 PM

McCain’s only down FOUR in Washington!!! Holy crap! I got some work to do at the UW.

UW and Seattle are lost causes, my friend. McCain needs to rock the vote east of the Cascades to win WA.

rsrobinson on September 8, 2008 at 6:40 PM

1GooDDaDDy on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Are those kawaski glasses??

Static21 on September 8, 2008 at 6:41 PM

I wish I could get inside Hillary’s head to know what she plans this election time.

AbaddonsReign on September 8, 2008 at 6:41 PM

What the hell kind of country is this where I can only hate a man if he’s white?

Hank.

trailboss on September 8, 2008 at 6:41 PM

To what or whom do we owe this happy reversal, I wonder. The left has been telling us for 10 days how insulted women are by Maverick’s very cynical pick of our token yokel with two X chromosomes, so it surely can’t be her.

My collie says:

The people on the left have confused women with b*tches — which is something that I would NEVER do. After all, I’m an expert on b*tches.

Collie’s canine persepctive aside, AllahPundit needs to come clean. Many of us TOLD AP that McCain should pick Palin. More than once. In several threads. BEFORE August 29th. I suspect that he was laughing at us, at that time. So how’s about an admission, AP? We were right — and you were, well, pessimistic, at best. What will you say if McCain wins by a Reaganesque margin in November?

CyberCipher on September 8, 2008 at 6:42 PM

Jesus, Allah, that picture of Hildog gives me the frights!

David Combs on September 8, 2008 at 6:43 PM

LOL! If McCain wins, I guarantee you won’t be saying that when Hillary has all those voters in 2012.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Unless something very unfortunate happens, Sarah will be at the top of her ticket in 2012. Hillary will have all her negatives and no positives at that point. It remains to be seen just how bitter and divided the liberals will be at that point.

pedestrian on September 8, 2008 at 6:43 PM

What will you say if McCain wins by a Reaganesque margin in November?

CyberCipher on September 8, 2008 at 6:42 PM

Hot Damn!!!

PappaMac on September 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM

Czardas???? Entelechy are you a fellow Magyar??!!! – J.J. Sefton on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

Czardas? Magyar? My grandmother emigrated from Budapest after the fall of the empire in 1918. I can still remember her waving a wooden spoon at me when I was naughty, saying “Meg utlek.”

ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM

Itrade Obambi-51.1 MAVERICK!-47.1

Barry lost 4.6 Mav up 4.5

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM

LOL! If McCain wins, I guarantee you won’t be saying that when Hillary has all those voters in 2012.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Yeah, well, one cycle at a time… ;)

Tengripundit on September 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM

What does the Pessimism Meter register?

jaime on September 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM

Bring out the Blazing Saddles.

Karl on September 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:34 PM

If these are true this is very big. florida looks a little iffy. first time its been a tie and trending towards Obama. however this is saying Ohio is Mcain safe, Pa is trending McCain, VA trending McCain, Washinton trending McCain, same for Co and I would say NC even though it isn’t listed BHO pulled the money out of NC. so now McCain is leading in the EV count and going on offense. the debates will be the next line of defense for Obamam and biden. I don’t see much changing in the next 2 weeks. until then unless Palin messes up th interview which I doubt since the Repub by letting the liberals scream that Palin is afraid of the press over the weekend have made sure it is a highly watched show I think she will nail it.

unseen on September 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM

I hate this photo of Palin, she looks like the incarnation of Peggy Hill.

AP, get a new one, please.

trailboss on September 8, 2008 at 6:21 PM

Hey, even Peggy Hill is better qualified to be president than Obama.

Frozen Tex on September 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM

McCain got game. Obama is lame.

By mid-week we should see more firm polling. But Real Clear Politics has McCain tied in two and leading in the rest of the major polls today, limited to polling taken since Friday.

It ain’t over till its over. But the trends look pretty good right now.

coldwarrior on September 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM

LOL! If McCain wins, I guarantee you won’t be saying that when Hillary has all those voters in 2012.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Yes, they tend Democrat. But this is the first time they’ve had a non-Clinton option. Likely true in ‘12 too.

Spirit of 1776 on September 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM

rsrob,

I agree, this move should have started right after Dayton, because talking to friends she was hitting the Reagan chord the day she was introduced. There was a deep sense of political respect at first listen, and some very smart political people sensed it was not a shallow Obama feeling and went beyond a functional teleprompter and speechwriter.

So if the left saw the same thing, and 2012 defeat flashed in front of their eyes, who ordered the leftist media minions to go destroy her before she can breathe?

econavenger on September 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM

McCain’s only down FOUR in Washington!!! Holy crap! I got some work to do at the UW.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

Dude, if McCain and Rossi both win, I’m looking forward to seeing Bainbridge Island explode like the Death Star.

fiatboomer on September 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM

I’m starting to think that the moment Democratic Primary became a tie, the victor was going to lose in the primary. Barack Obama was going to lose females in the general if he won. Hillary would have probably lost some of the black vote in the general, if she won.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM

so that poll is saying that African Americans are 18% of all voters nationwide? ha, its more like 10% correct? or less even

jp on September 8, 2008 at 6:37 PM

Nah. That seems about right. Keep in mind, white people will be a minority to Hispanics by 2050 and running close to Blacks, according to census projections.

African American turnout will EXPLODE this year also.

Damiano on September 8, 2008 at 6:46 PM

I love how the poll in the sidebar adds up to 101% – ChrisM on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

Probably because the decimals were rounded off and no one bothered to adjust the numbers.

ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 6:46 PM

I’m starting to think that the moment Democratic Primary became a tie, the victor was going to lose in the primary

Sorry I meant general not primary.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 6:46 PM

Here is rasmussens full state by state

However some of those states are still old even pre Democratic convention

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:46 PM

Palin gave much more of her experience as governor in the speech in Kansas City. It was interesting to finally get that out there.

McCain is killing, too.

Kat_Mo on September 8, 2008 at 6:47 PM

African American turnout will EXPLODE this year also. – Damiano on September 8, 2008 at 6:46 PM

And when the Missiah loses, will other things explode?

ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 6:47 PM

I’m no woman, but she does make me shift.

Benjamin9 on September 8, 2008 at 6:47 PM

Man I just checked some of those are as far back as Aug 8th

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:48 PM

Hillary would have probably lost some of the black vote in the general, if she won.

We all know that Hillary would have been smart enough to put Obama on the ticket.

rw on September 8, 2008 at 6:49 PM

And when the Missiah loses, will other things explode?

ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 6:47 PM

bring it on…

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 6:49 PM

Are those kawaski glasses??

Static21 on September 8, 2008 at 6:41 PM

Yip, lifted them right right off a photo of her. I know its not great, I just knocked it out in about 1/2 hour.

Over.

1GooDDaDDy on September 8, 2008 at 6:50 PM

Man I just checked some of those are as far back as Aug 8th

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:48 PM

That’s what I’m saying famous….

I think we’ll know by next week what’s up….

I’ll bet all hell breaks loose at KOOK.

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 6:50 PM

Nah. That seems about right. Keep in mind, white people will be a minority to Hispanics by 2050 and running close to Blacks, according to census projections.

African American turnout will EXPLODE this year also.

Damiano on September 8, 2008 at 6:46 PM

wrong…The census says that by 2050 the sumation of ALL minorities will be a majority. which means that Whites as a subgroup will still be the majority at 49%. Lations, blacks, Asians etc will equal 51% by 2050. Mostly Lations. since the Black cacus is invested in abortion the Black population will contiue to shrink as a percentage of the population. lations are more likely catholic and anti abortion. same for rural whites.

unseen on September 8, 2008 at 6:51 PM

Hm perhaps my state (WA) can be a surpise batleground. We have a HUGE governors race rematch which most of you know about. For those that don’t, read up on the 2004 Gregoire vs. Rossi WA governors race. It’s the validation for algore’s 2000 strategy of keep counting til you win. If we can get Rossi to win, I don’t see why McCain couldn’t. We have a very large military and rural population that could hep bring it home.

hump1201 on September 8, 2008 at 6:51 PM

My family has been in Colorado since 1870, but if it goes blue, I’m moving to Alaska!

kirkill on September 8, 2008 at 6:52 PM

Just wanna point out with hollywood box office recipts in the toilet this week and McCain Palin numbers up all over this is starting off to be one sweeeet week!

PiggieSez on September 8, 2008 at 6:52 PM

The news from Al Anbar, when put in the context of McCain being the main proponent of the surge in Congress, the accompanying pooh-poohing of it by the Democrats, and Obama’s recent flip-flop on it’s success, likely is part of the shift in the McCain C-in-C gains.

exhelodrvr on September 8, 2008 at 6:52 PM

I know a woman…older mid 60s. Fell in love with Obama after reading his books.
The truths don’t matter.
She sputters that Palin has NO EXPERIENCE!
I tell her the facts…..doesn’t matter.
She is intensely Against abortion. I tell her about Obama’s voting record there.
Doesn’t matter.
Closed mind. Locked tight. Nothing is going to change it.
And I’ve been pondering this for weeks. ‘what is wrong with her?’
I think I figured it out.
She IS racist. and it makes her feel so BIG to be FOR a black man. Almost like wearing a badge to prove that she is not a racist person…no matter who the man really is.
I could be wrong….wish I was….sad any way I look at it.

bridgetown on September 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM

Guys,
Sorry for butting in on this thread like this, but I just finished something we’ve been waiting for.

No Charge.

Over.

1GooDDaDDy on September 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM

She looks GREAT in that picture !! All it needs is a tiny BO and Joe swimming franticly out in front of her.

Maxx on September 8, 2008 at 6:54 PM

Hm perhaps my state (WA) can be a surpise batleground. We have a HUGE governors race rematch which most of you know about. For those that don’t, read up on the 2004 Gregoire vs. Rossi WA governors race. It’s the validation for algore’s 2000 strategy of keep counting til you win. If we can get Rossi to win, I don’t see why McCain couldn’t. We have a very large military and rural population that could hep bring it home.

hump1201 on September 8, 2008 at 6:51 PM

Gregoire is just unpopular enough that he could steal it. McCain could win an upset in Washington too, if he or Palin drop by to shore up the high desert, Kitsap, and the Olympic area (Rossi signs are everywhere west of Hood Canal).

fiatboomer on September 8, 2008 at 6:55 PM

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