Huge: 20-point shift towards McCain among white women since last month in new ABC poll

posted at 6:20 pm on September 8, 2008 by Allahpundit

He’s still down one overall among registereds and up two among likelies, but Gallup pegged white independents last week as the only demographic group where there’s still a major gender gap and thus room for movement. And now, maybe, here it is. ABC doesn’t break down white women by political affiliation, but the 20-point swing is split almost evenly between Obama losing points (nine) and McCain gaining (11). Can’t be only conservative white women who are responsible for that.

To what or whom do we owe this happy reversal, I wonder. The left has been telling us for 10 days how insulted women are by Maverick’s very cynical pick of our token yokel with two X chromosomes, so it surely can’t be her. Hmmm.

I say again: Hmmm.

Views of Palin are highly partisan, as noted in an ABC News poll last Thursday, and registered voters in this survey divide evenly, 47-45 percent, on whether or not she has the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president. Nonetheless she does inspire personal affinity in her peer groups. Her high 67 percent favorable rating among white women goes higher still, to 80 percent, among white women with children at home. And 71 percent of white mothers say the pick makes them more confident in McCain’s decision-making as president.

McCain’s also gained 18 points in enthusiasm and leads Obama by 69/24 on the C-in-C question, proving that not all of this is Palinmania. Oh, and the favorables/unfavorables? Palin 58/28, Obama 58/36.

Don’t look now, but Maverick’s suddenly up two in Colorado as well. Exit question: Hey, you know who I bet is enjoying this even more than McCain is?


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Comments

She IS racist. and it makes her feel so BIG to be FOR a black man. Almost like wearing a badge to prove that she is not a racist person…no matter who the man really is.
I could be wrong….wish I was….sad any way I look at it.

bridgetown on September 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM

if the nation has a plurality or majority vote based on willful ignorance we deserve everything we get….and Orca was an agent of that delusion.

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 6:55 PM

poll on issues

However, the Democrats still have a slight advantage on the most important issue to voters: the economy. The struggling economy, which is considered very important to 79% of Likely Voters, has consistently been the top issue of election 2008. This month, the Democratic Party is trusted more by a 46% to 43% margin to handle the issue. Though the Democrats still hold the advantage, their lead has slipped from twelve points in the last survey.

This month, the GOP pulled ahead on the issues of Iraq and National Security. Last month, the Democrats held a nine-point lead on the issue, which is considered very important for 61% of voters. Now, the GOP leads 47% to 43%. The Republicans enjoy the biggest advantage on National Security, an issue very important to 69% of voters. On this issue, the Republicans have a 50% to 40% advantage.

September marks the second straight month that the GOP has held a modest lead on taxes, an issue very important to 57% of voters. The Republicans now have a 48% to 46% lead on the issue.

Democrats continue to hold solid advantages on their party’s strong points, such as health care, education, and social security. The democrats have increased their advantage on abortion from a seven-point lead in August to a twelve-point lead this month.

On government ethics and corruption, the Democrats lead 39% to 34%. This issue is considered very important to 63% of voters.

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:56 PM

bridgetown on September 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM

Sadly, that is what you’re left with when the person in question gets their voting criteria off something other than the candidate’s policies… I know the feeling my friend (although my troublesome contact is voting for BO for different reasons)….

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on September 8, 2008 at 6:57 PM

It’s the validation for algore’s 2000 strategy of keep counting til you win. If we can get Rossi to win, I don’t see why McCain couldn’t.

Good point. I don’t know what side of the state you’re on, but for this Westerner going to the East side in late July and seeing the billboards proclaiming, “Don’t let Seattle steal this election” was heart warming.

Editor on September 8, 2008 at 6:57 PM

McCain-Palin 2008

Palin-McCain 2012

profitsbeard on September 8, 2008 at 6:59 PM

Still, they better get the ‘Cuda up here to stump for McCain and Rossi.

For real. Speaking of Rossi, he’s going to be on with Hugh Hewitt today. Pretty excited about that.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 6:59 PM

Allah, try putting that picture of Sarah Palin that you have at the beginning, and put it next to that picture you have of Hillary Clinton above……………….

…………… 40 point bounce!

Seven Percent Solution on September 8, 2008 at 7:00 PM

Btw, the Seattle PI wrote that she may be coming to WA on Sept. 24th. Scant on details though.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 7:01 PM

Great time for The Chosen One to refer to white women voters as RACIST. Funny, they weren’t RACIST when they were indicting a preference to him. Wonder when the MSM will do a story about the rampant BLACK RACISTS (90%) who are voting for Barry, and many openly admitting it’s because of race.

GarandFan on September 8, 2008 at 7:03 PM

Nurse Ratched………a warning please!

try again later on September 8, 2008 at 7:04 PM

Good point. I don’t know what side of the state you’re on, but for this Westerner going to the East side in late July and seeing the billboards proclaiming, “Don’t let Seattle steal this election” was heart warming.

Editor on September 8, 2008 at 6:57 PM

Rossi is well organized out in Port Angeles and Sequim. Yeah, not a lot of votes, but then every vote will be needed to thwart the will of Seattle.

fiatboomer on September 8, 2008 at 7:04 PM

The big problem now is going to be the inevitable “Palin Burnout Syndrome”; sure to hit the shelves before November, given all of the 24/7 overkill.

I’m still optimistic, though.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:05 PM

The best chance for Washington is if the election goes bad early for the dems and they lose within the first few hours.

Might cause the western dems to stay home.

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 7:07 PM

PUMAs Attack!

DelD on September 8, 2008 at 7:07 PM

And when the Messiah loses, will other things explode?

ManlyRash on September 8, 2008 at 6:47 PM

Er.. caves…no wait…entire mountainsides in Pakistan?

My collie says:

We proudly welcome the Taliban and Al Qaeda to our new artillery test practice firing range.

CyberCipher on September 8, 2008 at 7:08 PM

The big problem now is going to be the inevitable “Palin Burnout Syndrome”; sure to hit the shelves before November, given all of the 24/7 overkill.

I’m still optimistic, though.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:05 PM

I doubt it….peeople will tune out the 3 minutes of hate on their own.

Bambi fatigue is because of the fellation he recieved for 2+ years based on a teleprompted speech he has never lived up to.

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 7:09 PM

The big problem now is going to be the inevitable “Palin Burnout Syndrome”; sure to hit the shelves before November, given all of the 24/7 overkill.
I’m still optimistic, though.
hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:05 PM

Eight weeks, after slogging through a cavalcade of boring GOP contenders for the last year and a half? No burnout for me.

Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 7:11 PM

The best chance for Washington is if the election goes bad early for the dems and they lose within the first few hours.

Might cause the western dems to stay home.

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 7:07 PM

It could also have the opposite effect. I wasn’t going to vote in 1996 — but when they announced Bill Clinton the winner BEFORE the polls closed in Washington state, I rushed to my polling place to vote for Dole/Kemp. I HATE being told that my vote doesn’t count.

CyberCipher on September 8, 2008 at 7:12 PM

Heard on Fox News this morning that McCain is even trying to put Cali into play for Nov. hired the guys that put the governater in office

tee866 on September 8, 2008 at 7:13 PM

I’m in Lacey mostly surrounded by military and ex-military (like myself). There’s plenty of votes here and south down to Vancouver. I really need to start getting out there and doing everything for Rossi/McCain. I just hope none of my friends who live in Olympia get hurt in the bonfires come Nov 5th.

hump1201 on September 8, 2008 at 7:13 PM

UW and Seattle are lost causes, my friend. McCain needs to rock the vote east of the Cascades to win WA.

I could get some work done at UW, trust me. ;-) Unlike many others, I ain’t afraid to be a Conservative.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 7:15 PM

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 7:09 PMsven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 7:09 PM

I hope you’re right, Sven, and I agree somewhat. However, I can see no good coming from the constant microscopic, neon-lit attention being showered on the Palins at this time.

There is a tipping point beyond which anything becomes too much, and the media is well on the way to overdoing the Palinmania thing already.

I hope this results in a positive outcome, but with the fickle American psyche, anything is possible.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:15 PM

I talked to two women this weekend who had supported Hillary. One is now solidly for McCain and can lucidly explain her reasons. The other, who admitted she didn’t know much about Obama, adamantly insisted she would not vote for McCain. Asked why, she could only babble incoherently about the war.

Disturb the Universe on September 8, 2008 at 7:15 PM

I’m in Lacey mostly surrounded by military and ex-military (like myself).

Very cool. I lived in Maple Valley until I moved down to Seattle about a week ago. We need to make sure everyone we know gets registered to vote, especially if McCain’s only down four.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Okay Allah- now you’re just freaking me out.

Please post something doom and gloom…..

FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 7:17 PM

McCain should start to hammer congress. It will increase his positives and start to shift the playing feild more.

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 7:18 PM

Okay Allah- now you’re just freaking me out.

Please post something doom and gloom…..

FiveWays on September 8, 2008 at 7:17 PM

Priceless.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:21 PM

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:15 PM

Screwed up the tags, again.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:22 PM

Should be:

sven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 7:09 PMsven10077 on September 8, 2008 at 7:09 PM

I hope you’re right, Sven, and I agree somewhat. However, I can see no good coming from the constant microscopic, neon-lit attention being showered on the Palins at this time.

There is a tipping point beyond which anything becomes too much, and the media is well on the way to overdoing the Palinmania thing already.

I hope this results in a positive outcome, but with the fickle American psyche, anything is possible.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:25 PM

Eight weeks, after slogging through a cavalcade of boring GOP contenders for the last year and a half? No burnout for me.

Bishop on September 8, 2008 at 7:11 PM

“Me three too neither”, personally, but I hope the swing voters see it the same way. It is not a given.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:29 PM

Can watch Sarah adn John’s Missouri speeches here

William Amos on September 8, 2008 at 6:41 PM

i watched the Missouri rally. Sarah Palin has improved considerably in her stump speech delivery. The text is fresh and she hardly looked down at her notes.

scrubjay on September 8, 2008 at 7:30 PM

We’ve already got one of the entertainment magazine nightly bullshit celebrity shows calling them “The Palin Bunch”.

It’s a long time ’til November.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:32 PM

Palin/The Unknown Comic Allahpundit 2012!!

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:37 PM

Btw, the Seattle PI wrote that she may be coming to WA on Sept. 24th. Scant on details though.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 7:01 PM

Here’s what I’ve got so far:

• On Wednesday, Sept. 24th, Gov. Sarah Palin will headline a lunch fundraiser in Bellevue. It will be a “McCain/Victory” fundraiser and invite is not printed yet, but I am told tickets will run $500/per person. A great event to attend if you are thinking of making a contribution to the campaign.

ihasurnominashun on September 8, 2008 at 7:39 PM

Now that’s change we can believe in !!!

RocketmanBob on September 8, 2008 at 7:41 PM

I will admit (on the positive side) that it’s loads of fun watching Obama impale himself while trying to stem the tide of the Palin popularity overwash.

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:42 PM

A 95% vote for Obama by blacks: some would call this racist.
A 20% increase for McCain by white women after Palin joins the ticket: would this be sexist?
Gotta love politics based upon identity vice, you know, something of substance. We certainly deserve what we get in November.

Send_Me on September 8, 2008 at 7:47 PM

OBAMA 08

EXPERIENCE YOU CAN LAUGH AT!

hillbillyjim on September 8, 2008 at 7:48 PM

On Wednesday, Sept. 24th, Gov. Sarah Palin will headline a lunch fundraiser in Bellevue. It will be a “McCain/Victory” fundraiser and invite is not printed yet, but I am told tickets will run $500/per person. A great event to attend if you are thinking of making a contribution to the campaign.

That’s awesome, but they need to have a rally here too.

nickj116 on September 8, 2008 at 7:53 PM

Someone help me with this:

McCain is up 51 to 40% in Ohio according to Rasmussen.

The RCP electorial map for Ohio is in the Democratic Side

Can someone help me understand this? Will the dead rise up from the Cleveland grave yards and help Obama take the state?

Agent of the Cross on September 8, 2008 at 7:54 PM

Someone help me with this:

McCain is up 51 to 40% in Ohio according to Rasmussen.

The RCP electorial map for Ohio is in the Democratic Side

Can someone help me understand this? Will the dead rise up from the Cleveland grave yards and help Obama take the state?

Agent of the Cross on September 8, 2008 at 7:54 PM

Its colored red and says McCain is up by an average of 1.3 overall.

Where is it on the Dem side?

Chuck Schick on September 8, 2008 at 7:58 PM

The swing state this year is Colorado. Johnny Mac MUST win that state in order to become Pres. I believe that he will win Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, but the Rass. poll shows him down in CO and that is a must win for him.

Illinidiva on September 8, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Here’s a jewel from the WaPo article on the latest poll standings. Give them credit for including these numbers in their coverage.

Palin gets more tepid reviews, however, on the question of whether she has the experience necessary to assume the presidency if that became necessary — only 47 percent of voters think she does. But experience remains a sizable obstacle for Obama, at the top of the Democratic ticket, as he remains stuck around 50 percent on the question of whether he has the experience required to serve effectively in the White House; voters now divide 48 to 48 percent on his qualifications.

However, notice Palin’s 47% is “only,” while Obama’s 48% is “around 50 percent.” Otherwise a good paragraph.

Maverick/SarahCuda ’08

glendower on September 8, 2008 at 8:14 PM

My family has been in Colorado since 1870, but if it goes blue, I’m moving to Alaska!
kirkill on September 8, 2008 at 6:52 PM

You have good reason to be concern. I spend a lot of time in your beautiful state and the big money liberal are trying to take control. The old timer I know are not at all happy.

try again later on September 8, 2008 at 8:14 PM

Views of Palin are highly partisan, as noted in an ABC News poll last Thursday…

OK, Democrats are switching over to the Republican ticket in droves – and that makes them “partisan”?

I suppose anyone who views Palin favorably must also support the Republican ticket.

So anyone who supports the Democrat ticket whether it’s for six generations or they just switched yesterday is “non-partisan”.

logis on September 8, 2008 at 8:19 PM

White women kick ass.

Tengripundit on September 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM
LOL! If McCain wins, I guarantee you won’t be saying that when Hillary has all those voters in 2012.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Tell you what Terry, I assume you are a Hillary supporter. If McCain decides to step aside and let Palin run in 2012. It very well could be Palin vs. Clinton. AS a fellow “white woman” I think we both win there. 2012 the year a woman of one kind or another breaks through that glass ceiling!

petunia on September 8, 2008 at 8:20 PM

I am a white woman from a rural area and I like Sarah Palin. I think she has a lot more idea about what life is like for average Americans than someone like Joe Biden. Or Obama.

Terrye on September 8, 2008 at 8:26 PM

The math is simpler than what is being presented. Bush got 48% of all women in 2004. Women that were for McCain are not abandoning him now that he picked Palin. There are still about 20-25% of Hillary voters that will probably move to McCain. Bush did not get these ladies in 2004. Assume half the remaining undecideds (8%) are women.

McCain/Palin push the 60% mark on women when all is said and done. No one will go out on a limb like that but you know that is what is going to happen. Team Obama knows it and that is one reason they have been sh&tting bricks since Plain’s speech.

grdred944 on September 8, 2008 at 8:32 PM

That pic of Hillary… YIKES!!!!

All that’s missing is the red lightsabre.

Yakko77 on September 8, 2008 at 8:40 PM

The swing state this year is Colorado. Johnny Mac MUST win that state in order to become Pres. I believe that he will win Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, but the Rass. poll shows him down in CO and that is a must win for him.

Illinidiva on September 8, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Colorado was a Democratic target. That’s why the convention was there. But CO is easily off set by WA.

I know several Wash people who live and work partime in Alaska. The more remote parts of the state should really relate to Palin. If it is really only 4%? Work it!

petunia on September 8, 2008 at 8:42 PM

AS a fellow “white woman” I think we both win there. 2012 the year a woman of one kind or another breaks through that glass ceiling!
petunia on September 8, 2008 at 8:20 PM

Let’s try something:
“AS a fellow “white woman man” I think we both win there. 2012 the year a woman man of one kind or another breaks through that glass ceiling!”

Send_Me on September 8, 2008 at 8:45 PM

petunia on September 8, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Colorado will come around – they are still in “bounce mode” from the Dem’s convention. Plus you have to consider all the Californians moving to Colorado and voting Dem. However, I think that regular citizens of Colorado will turn to McCain/Palin, especially Palin. Colorado beware the California immigrants! Could change the political demographics of your fine state.

Neocon Peg on September 8, 2008 at 8:50 PM

Send_Me on September 8, 2008 at 8:45 PM

Heh! +1

Neocon Peg on September 8, 2008 at 8:52 PM

Hey, you know who I bet is enjoying this even more than McCain is?

Of course she is. Her only hope of ever getting her part of the deal she made with Bill is for Obama to lose in 2008 so she can “save” the party in 2012. Otherwise- game over for the Clinton Dynasty unless dear sweet dimwitted Chelsea shows some talent and ability not yet in evidence.

highhopes on September 8, 2008 at 8:57 PM

Here is something to make up for that picture of Hillary…………..

Seven Percent Solution on September 8, 2008 at 8:59 PM

I think she has a lot more idea about what life is like for average Americans than someone like Joe Biden. Or Obama.

Terrye on September 8, 2008 at 8:26 PM

Of course she does but why leave McCain out of your comments. John McCain isn’t an average American either. He doesn’t shop for food. He’s married to an heiress not a real working mother. He’s been in Congress for decades….

Let’s be fair here. Obama, Biden, and McCain are all DC insiders with no clue about the real world. You are dishonest if you just focus on one party’s liberal elitist career politicians. The GOP has it’s own disconnected elite liberals.

highhopes on September 8, 2008 at 9:02 PM

Let’s be fair here. Obama, Biden, and McCain are all DC insiders with no clue about the real world. You are dishonest if you just focus on one party’s liberal elitist career politicians. The GOP has it’s own disconnected elite liberals.
highhopes on September 8, 2008 at 9:02 PM

Agreed. Gotta love the fact that 3/4 of these folks running for President are from a Congress with a 14% approval rating. Yep, a “write in” it is for me. I’m not contributing to either of these drama-filled candidates.

Send_Me on September 8, 2008 at 9:10 PM

I love how the poll in the sidebar adds up to 101% – ChrisM on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

They are accounting for the Chicago dead vote. I did see on Fox News tonight that McCain plans to make a serious run at California too. If he can put Obama on offense in states he should win without even trying, then Obama is toast. Also, no way does Obama drop Biden. Hillary wouldn’t jump onto his sinking ship when all she has to do is wait four years.

Kevin71 on September 8, 2008 at 9:44 PM

And that photo tells me Hillary ain’t been flossing.

JonRoss on September 8, 2008 at 6:36 PM

That’s what I said the last time AllahP used this photo. Imagine toothless Hillary.

baldilocks on September 8, 2008 at 9:45 PM

I bet some of it is Cindy McCain as well. The contrast between her and Michelle Obama is 1st lady is quite striking.

SouthernGent on September 8, 2008 at 9:59 PM

Tell you what Terry, I assume you are a Hillary supporter. If McCain decides to step aside and let Palin run in 2012. It very well could be Palin vs. Clinton. AS a fellow “white woman” I think we both win there. 2012 the year a woman of one kind or another breaks through that glass ceiling!

No, I’m not a Hillary supporter. We will see. We don’t know who will win 2008 yet.

terryannonline on September 8, 2008 at 10:07 PM

If this holds up for the election, I will have been wrong about the gender gap and Palin, and I’ll be very happy. We can win this thing I think.

indythinker on September 8, 2008 at 10:55 PM

Ma, quick! Lookee here!!! B*gger me, I jus’ dropped ma gun!
*spits stream of arugula juice*

Fortunata on September 9, 2008 at 12:23 AM

I hope that McCain does come to CA. California is over half Democrats. Not really sure, seems like it. He should, that would bounce a lot. So many closet Republican’s. Sarah is wonderful. She is real. Hillary is fake. Hillary could care less. Hillary is totally fake. We all are human though. I think Palin has very clean dirt. They can’t even get any. The Democrats are going bonkers! I will truly hope that McCain and Palin takes the White House. Don’t want our Country to be a Socialist Country. That is what has been happening for years. A Ideology, and it has been working. We need A change but most of all. They need to clean out Washington. This is ridiculous. I hope we seen things sooner. Then the Democrats will have to start doing their work. Boy, that would piss them off. Any way I am rambling off.

sheebe on September 9, 2008 at 12:36 AM

AS a fellow “white woman” I think we both win there. 2012 the year a woman of one kind or another breaks through that glass ceiling!
petunia on September 8, 2008 at 8:20 PM
Let’s try something:
“AS a fellow “white woman man” I think we both win there. 2012 the year a woman man of one kind or another breaks through that glass ceiling!”

Send_Me on September 8, 2008 at 8:45 PM

(Corrections don’t show)

What glass ceiling was that again? Oh I see you were a Romney supporter! Me too! But that ceiling is firmly in place and isn’t going anywhere in this generation.

And sure the Palin/Hillary thing is identity politics that’s the vogue this year didn’t you get the memo?

But as a Romney guy I would bet that protecting traditional marriage is an issue you care about?

Ask yourself with Obama’s ties to Marxists and people like Reverend Wright, Rezko, and Bill Ayers–just how corrupt of a Supreme Court do you want? There are 3 very liberal judges about to retire… they would have already if Bush wasn’t Presdent.

Someone is going to get this issue before the Supremes. The states don’t agree and someone will want their name on a law.

So a write in isn’t going to help our society. This is a year when you’ll just have to buck up.

petunia on September 9, 2008 at 1:12 AM

Seven Percent Solution on September 8, 2008 at 8:59 PM

Oh, thank you, thank you. My acid reflux was getting to me.

On an aside, the major movement from the PRC to other states is mostly Republicans. We are getting tired of the idiots running the commune. The only positive piece of legislation passed here in the last 50 years that I’ve been here is prop 13. Now they are circumventing that as they don’t have enough pocket money. As for the Republicans that do move to other states, most of them have been beaten soundly about the head and shoulders that they will probably will not even register to vote, they just want to be left alone. If you want a reason for this, just look what we got for a Governor.

N4646W on September 9, 2008 at 1:23 AM

Humm, maybe things are looking up, was just informed by my child bride that the prison union wants to start a recall of our illustrious Gubernator. “Hunter, Hunter”

N4646W on September 9, 2008 at 1:28 AM

Will the dead rise up from the Cleveland grave yards and help Obama take the state?

Yes, with help from ACORN.

electric-rascal on September 9, 2008 at 2:44 AM

This reminds me of a famous line from Blazing Saddles….

manfriend on September 9, 2008 at 9:00 AM

I could be wrong….wish I was….sad any way I look at it.

bridgetown on September 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM

My sister made a similar appeal to me to support Barry Zero. She said that since I was so dead set against racism (which I am), I should support Obama because he is black.

I didn’t even know where to start with that one. I wound up saying that Obama is so opposed to everything I stand for that race never enters the picture. Kind of fudging the point, but I doesn’t do to start yelling at one’s family.

gridlock2 on September 9, 2008 at 11:17 AM

Let’s note that some of these poll numbers indicate much more than the usual, expected “convention bounce.”

glendower on September 9, 2008 at 11:46 AM

uh-oh, where’s Oprah, oh wait a minute…

gr8inferno on September 9, 2008 at 1:16 PM