Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error
posted at 1:24 pm on September 7, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Based on a huge sample, too, one-third of which was polled on Thursday before McCain gave his well-received acceptance speech. This is the first Gallup tracker to be conducted entirely after Palinmania on Wednesday night. Result: A three-point bump since yesterday.
Oh my.
McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.
Blogger’s pessimism meter: Now set to level nine, i.e. expecting a heart-stopping finish in which we lose narrowly but congratulate ourselves on making a race out of a campaign we should have lost by 15 points. That’s the highest level since February 2003. Exit question: What if McCain hits 50 percent tomorrow? Will the pessimism meter actually reach the mythical, long-rumored but never conclusively proven to exist level ten?
Update: Pop quiz. Which wingnut stooge said this?
Suddenly, Palin and John McCain are the mavericks and Barack Obama and Joe Biden are the status quo, in a year when you don’t want to be seen as defending the status quo.
From taxes to oil drilling, Democrats are now going to have to start explaining their positions.
Whenever you start having to explain things, you’re on defense…
As for Palin herself, she is going to be very, very effective on the campaign trail, especially if McCain’s people can figure out how to gently keep her from getting into confrontations with the press.
If she can answer questions like she handled herself at the convention, Palin will turn out to be the most interesting person in all of politics, and the press will treat her like they treated Obama when he was first discovered.
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Final solution. Nice.
Editor on September 7, 2008 at 2:01 PM
Heh. He makes a good point, Allah.
Blake on September 7, 2008 at 2:02 PM
tru2tx on September 7, 2008 at 1:59 PM
Forgot to mention I’m female too.
Another scary gun totin’ member of the fair sex. ; )
tru2tx on September 7, 2008 at 2:03 PM
It’s AP.
If McCain wins, CVS will have to open up two new pharmacies in his neighborhood just to supply the pyschotropic drugs he’ll need.
SteveMG on September 7, 2008 at 2:03 PM
This could be good.
BallisticBob on September 7, 2008 at 2:03 PM
You must be new here.
Purple Fury on September 7, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Governor Palin has invigorated this campaign with a burst of optimism. The enthusiasm is infectious and will result in more foot soldiers on the ground. Since her arrival, I more often sense victory than doubt it. And as a worrier myself, that feels so wonderful.
Please, may I have some more?
Loxodonta on September 7, 2008 at 2:04 PM
I promise not to mess with Texas…
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Reminds me of the Republican nominee race…
d1carter on September 7, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Look for the attacks on McCain, Palin, and Republicans in general to get much nastier, quickly.
I hope John and Sarah start reminding people that for the past two years the more-corrupt-than-ever House and Senate have been controlled by the Pelosi – Reid Democrats. We need to remain the change agents.
JudetheFossil on September 7, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Meanwhile, here’s the 20-point headline on the front page of the Seattle Times website:
No mention of the Gallup numbers. Maybe the editors are too busy beating their heads against the wall to update the page? CUT OUT THE SMEAR TACTICS, IDIOTS. IT AIN’T WORKIN’.
fiatboomer on September 7, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Uh huh. Put down the pipe.
Lehosh on September 7, 2008 at 2:06 PM
zmzlina, you magnificent bastard. The best image of the ‘08 campaign yet.
horatio on September 7, 2008 at 2:06 PM
And move away from the keyboard.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 2:07 PM
It’s an optimism scale labeled pessimism :) 1 is like morbidly depressed landslide lose, 9 is like close loss, good show.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
I can’t help it…and I’m sorry to be a buzzkill, but that speech, that moment, by McCain reminds me of the speech by the general in Mars Attacks! right before the alien shrinks him and squashes him with his foot.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Sorry for the multiple post. The werent showing up on my screen. I thought they were disappearing
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
I think we are watching Mrs. Al Smith Goes to Washington. In his column today, the elegant wordsmith William Safire refers to Palin as a “happy warrior.”
That is why she reminds so many of us of Reagan. Optimism breeds optimism and beats down the nattering nabobs of negativism.
I predict AP’s pessimism will slide gradually southward, exactly proportionate to Obama’s poll numbers.
Terrie on September 7, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Strange…it made me think of Winston Churchill’s “We shall never surrender” speech.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I refuse to register with the NY Slimes – even if it means missing an article by Safire.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Yep.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 2:12 PM
You know who Obama reminds me of? Bush/Cheney!
Vote for change: McCain/Palin 2008!
Loxodonta on September 7, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Is it true Palin shot and killed then field dressed a moose on stage at the end of her speech? :-)
Chimpy on September 7, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Heh, I never realized it before, but the speech from Mars Attacks is basically the same speech as Churchill’s. I’ll admit I’d never heard Churchill’s speech before. Blame the liberal education system.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 2:15 PM
I hate to post a link to the Kos Kiddies but you have got to see their comments. They are flipping out! Good fun.
IrishEi on September 7, 2008 at 2:16 PM
This election cycle is the last hurrah for the MSM. Many newspapers and TV news programs will not exist in 2012. If they don’t get their man in this year, the Left might have lost their final opportunity for a socialist takeover.
That’s why the MSM is “all in”; it doesn’t matter if they lose whatever credibility which may remain. They’re not gonna be around to deal with any blow back.
kuhio on September 7, 2008 at 2:17 PM
How many retarded things did Obama say in this one interview?
my muslim faith
palin is cheney/bush
i’m not so sure about the bush tax cuts now
i could give her a run for her money on the court
lodge on September 7, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Hooooooooooooooooooly crap.
Sounds like they’re getting ready to throw themselves over a cliff.
Sweet!
BallisticBob on September 7, 2008 at 2:18 PM
The Real-Deal vs the Elite-Snobs. Look out.
TinMan13 on September 7, 2008 at 2:18 PM
This is funny…
Air Force 0- custom seats, chrome spinner rims, custom paint… but not suitable to fly twice this year.
http://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2008/09/06/obama,_entourage,_switch_planes
Damiano on September 7, 2008 at 2:19 PM
It was reading the Seattle Times front page as I walked to my paper route that turned me into a conservative during the Carter years. I hope they continue in the tradition.
DarkCurrent on September 7, 2008 at 2:19 PM
unreal
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 2:19 PM
The comments from that Kos link are certainly a nice little shot of irony:
Yeah, pal. I’m sure Barry’s ad team will get right on that one. Here’s another:
And on Obama’s “my Muslim faith” slip:
Slublog on September 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Wow. From Willie Brown.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
That ain’t nuthin’. I have an 18th level Community Organizer!
Benjamin9 on September 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Peaking too early. Call me nervous.
Limerick on September 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
No…I’ll blame you. That kind of ignorance should be outlawed.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Is there anything Allahpundit is optimistic about? Mets, maybe?
Karol on September 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
After the convention? I’d be worried if there wasn’t a bounce.
And who said peak :) might keep going up. You’ve seen the crowds.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 2:23 PM
They’re done because the hippie college profs are OLD, retiring, and dying. The new ones either go agnostic in politics in the classroom, are more balanced, or, believe it or not, more right.
College isn’t the indoctrination centers they once were. Students have more information than just the MSM at their fingertips, therefore the ‘party line’ is obvious, and easy to ignore.
But they are done. Ratings, circulation, etc. being down means dig the hole.
TinMan13 on September 7, 2008 at 2:23 PM
NPR game show, “Wait, wait.. Don’t tell me!” yesterday: the host said Palin shot & field-dressed an ACLU-member.
Purple Fury on September 7, 2008 at 2:24 PM
My apologies to Allah. I have made negative posts here a few times about his pessimism. I said some nasty things and I was wrong.
I too am starting to feel some pessimism about this. It feels too good to be true. I hope Palinmania will hold up for 60 days, but it is a little too much too soon.
Sorry Allah.
BuckNutty on September 7, 2008 at 2:24 PM
We don’t elect presidents by national popular vote. We elect them by electoral vote, and McCain still trails in electoral votes. Were the election held today, McCain would probably lose Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Ånd if he loses those states without off-setting gains elsewhere, he loses the election.
Your pessimism remains justified, AP.
paul006 on September 7, 2008 at 2:24 PM
I think its safe to say that Barry peaked a lot sooner
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Thats not a clear indicator either. For example the last Colorado poll that they did was Aug 26th at the start of the GOP convention. Some of those states haven had polls in awhile
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 2:26 PM
Barry peaked two months before his convention IMHO….
he drove the car backwards through the finish line while the tranny burnt, and coasted into the next race leading only because the McCain car was not even started….
Barry is toast barring a huge gaffe.
sven10077 on September 7, 2008 at 2:27 PM
A speech used by McCain in an early commercial. McCain has actually been consistent in his ideas without always using identical language – makes me think he really believes these things he says, he isn’t just a politician pushing for votes. Like a WSJ editorial said, he’s a patriot, and even his faults can almost been understood in that light.
kc8ukw on September 7, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Correct RCP’s electoral count has not moved in a week and a half due to a paucity of polling.
sven10077 on September 7, 2008 at 2:28 PM
I think the determining factor will be why Palin was embraced. If it’s simply due to her ‘newness’ then Palinmania will be a fleeting fad. If people connect with Palin because they feel she shares their values, those voters will stick with her regardless of what the media says.
Slublog on September 7, 2008 at 2:28 PM
This might cheer some up.
ITs the last poll done on Michigan on August 26th
Barry 43% McCain 41%
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Only the Libtards use Affirmative Action even for the White House. How freaking absurd!
txdoc on September 7, 2008 at 2:32 PM
It’s true that McCain still trails in electoral votes based upon poll results taken before the Republican convention. I bet McCain will lead in Electoral Vote projections once state poll results from after the convention are factored in.
Loxodonta on September 7, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Mr. Manly, I’m with you, but there was no registration necessary.
Terrie on September 7, 2008 at 2:33 PM
OMFG…you are right! The Kos Kidz are totally freaking out.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 2:34 PM
McCain- Palin WILL win Colorado!! I went down to my local headquarters to pick up some yard signs. They were all out will have new ones in a week or so. The lady said that she had a list of 200 people wanting McCain-Palin yard signs!! They have never had a waiting list for yard signs before.
build the wall on September 7, 2008 at 2:35 PM
I didn’t suggest that the results couldn’t change. But I did suggest that a) until we see them change, AP’s pessimism is justified, and b) polls of national popular vote are not the proper barometer for gauging the outcome of the election.
paul006 on September 7, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Ooooh. Poster #12 is having some major indigestion. “F Palin. F her family”?????? Class acts all the way. There’s going to be the meltdown for all ages if M/P win. I hate to think how bad it could really be. Or maybe they’ll just pull the window shades in their basements and open another bag of Cheetos.
hoosiermama on September 7, 2008 at 2:36 PM
With these numbers, I hope someone thought to send Andrea Mitchell a get-well card.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Allah, if you want to feel better go there and read the comments. The Kos Kids are totally freaking and don’t know what to do about Palin. They can’t agree on whether to attack her or to ignore her. They are losing their minds.
CanadianGuy on September 7, 2008 at 2:36 PM
I have never registered either, but when I absolutely must read a NY Times article, I am always able to access it through Google News. I just pulled up the Safire article that way. Haven’t read it yet, but it looks good.
Loxodonta on September 7, 2008 at 2:37 PM
If Obama will delay or not “rescind” (love that word the press used) the Bush tax cuts if we’re in a recession, then that will also put a “delay” on most of his legislative program including national health care.
Because without the revenues of the “rescinded” tax cuts, Obama won’t have the money to pay for all of his other new programs. After all, he’s said that the funding for his initiatives comes from the tax cuts.
The wheels are coming off the campaign bus. I guess if you run over so many people, that’ll happen.
SteveMG on September 7, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Yep.
That’s why when I see people post that it’s going to be a landslide for McCain, I just shake my head.
BallisticBob on September 7, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Well, there’s always that to factor in.
Can’t stop grinning. MICHIGAN???
hoosiermama on September 7, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Unless Palin does something truly awful the base, which is dying to turn out, will.
Obama is in a box- go to the center and piss off the base, stay left and see the moderate and GOP base solidify.
To use a WWII metaphor, Palin was the Panzers smashing through the Ardenne forest when nobody was expecting it and trapping Bambi- he has no good place to go.
jjshaka on September 7, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Real Clear Politics has it Messiah 46 and McCain 45.2. That is without three major polls reporting for Sunday. What everyone is losing sight is that the undecideds are breaking fast and furious for McCain. If he goes over 50 then this race can be in the bank.
Obama will go nuclear and the press will once again launch into a death match against McCain but once the voters make their decision McCain will have to be found with a dead sheep in his bedroom to lose this.
Jdripper on September 7, 2008 at 2:42 PM
The election is only in the bank if McCain/Pallin win the Electoral College on November 4. The enthusiasm is great, but there is still a lot of real work to do.
Loxodonta on September 7, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Palin is doing interview with ABC.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Perfect. Get her front and center, batting away the latest idiotic claim (that they’re hiding her). Don’t overexpose her, but put her in position to connect when the drilling ban showdown in Congress draws nearer.
CK MacLeod on September 7, 2008 at 2:50 PM
“if McCain’s people can figure out how to gently keep her from getting into confrontations with the press”
Exactly the wrong strategy. She’s prettier, smarter and more down to earth. She’ll kick the press’s ass and Americans will love her for it.
She’ll be let loose once she’s boned up of the issues.
Basilsbest on September 7, 2008 at 2:52 PM
On the issues
Basilsbest on September 7, 2008 at 2:53 PM
Where does this idea come from that she isn’t boned up on “the issues” (whatever those are)? I suspect from the same netherworld where “she came out of nowhere!!” first appeared.
If I’m dimly aware of most issues, I don’t know why she wouldn’t have something to say…
Lehosh on September 7, 2008 at 2:55 PM
The same Willie Brown who predicted that Colin Powell would appear at the Dems convention. Oops.
I recommend y’all read his column that AP linked to above. He gets Palin’s everywoman appeal.
Terrie on September 7, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Obama and the Dems have been building up their machine in each state level for a long time now.
The ‘base’ is energized and volunteers are just coming in during and after the RNC. Even if McCain is leading at this point, the Republican ‘get out the vote’ is way behind.
Sir Napsalot on September 7, 2008 at 2:57 PM
I don’t know how we’re going to lose narrowly when Obama’s not the candidate.
Jim Treacher on September 7, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Has anyone laid money on Obama deep-sixing the Clooney Switzerland fundraiser?? Oh the agony. Do they keep alienating flyover country, or try to galvanize the nutroots base? Hmmm.
hoosiermama on September 7, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Obama’s team will be somewhat of a liability to his bank book (and thus his advertising).
I wouldn’t get too worried about gotv. With the return of social cons, some of that is alleviated.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 3:00 PM
What college do you go to? Mine’s as left as they come (student wise), without any teacher doing liberal preaching and the only one that has tries to stay pretty balanced (and fails, but I appreciate the effort).
Darth Executor on September 7, 2008 at 3:00 PM
If Obama loses Ohio and Virginia, he MUST win Colorado, Michigan, and New Mexico. McCain should spend a bit of time in Iowa, but Iowa looks a bit out of reach re: ethanol.
SouthernGent on September 7, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Guys, I just went to McCain/Palin’s campaign website and watched the end of Mac’s speech again, from about 42:00 on. Granted, for someone who tries to be a tough guy, I can be a bit of a sap. But the emotion stirred up watching this humble man, who can’t raise his arms is beyond my ability to describe. If enough decent Americans just see this speech, I can’t imagine how they could vote against our ticket.
mikeyboss on September 7, 2008 at 3:05 PM
You have to hand to McCain for running a brilliant campaign. Though not my dream choice on policy. this is the most genueine ticket I have ever been old enough to vote in. Go Johnny go.
RE: Pessimism meter. Crank it up to eleven or we’ll jinx it: http://tinyurl.com/5sdtyw
Hochmeister on September 7, 2008 at 3:15 PM
A visual representation of Obam poll numbers.
equanimous on September 7, 2008 at 3:18 PM
Very nice.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 3:20 PM
That’s the funniest thing I’ve read all day — from SFGate, no less.
The press has dug itself a position (Obama adoration), and it will fight like hell to defend it, with whatever it takes, including following the insanity of the Obama/Axelrod/Sullivan/Kos slime machine — if anyone doesn’t get that after this week, they really need to clean the windshield.
Nichevo on September 7, 2008 at 3:22 PM
Behold the power of SARAH-CUDA!
She is:
Melting-down the Democrats-
Melting-down the Media-
Grabbing the attention of average Americans-
Because she IS an average American-
And flushing out the nay-sayers from the Republican Party-
Now I ask you all-
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE?
FiveWays on September 7, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Oh yes-
And most importantly:
The SARAH-CUDA-
has dealt a serious blow to the terminal pessimism of Allah!
Now go ahead-
Tell me there’s no God.
FiveWays on September 7, 2008 at 3:27 PM
I remember when Allah used to be the funniest guy on the net, no joke.
The Allahpundit site was BRILLIANT.
Are those posts archived anywhere? I had to keep from guffawing at work a number of times.
NoDonkey on September 7, 2008 at 3:33 PM
What would you expect if the race is “winners vs. whiners”?
cthulhu on September 7, 2008 at 3:35 PM
I’m thinking more the President’s speech in Independence Day: “We will not go quietly into the night…”
Count to 10 on September 7, 2008 at 3:39 PM
As for Palin herself, she is going to be very, very effective on the campaign trail, especially if McCain’s people can figure out how to gently keep her from getting into confrontations with the press.
They don’t need to keep her away from the press. I think part of the strategy is let the press build it up until she finally does then she will hit another home run. I think people are going to be very surprised on how well she carries herself with the press, just like everyone thought her speech wouldn’t be very good, ater all she is a hick from Alaska. Being that I am resident of Alaska I think that is a good thing. Admittedly she may need a little brushing up on issues and McCains background and positions, but she is the kind of person who thinks very quickly and smartly on her feet.
Sven on September 7, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Can’t we just blame you?
FiveWays on September 7, 2008 at 3:44 PM
I’d rather you didn’t. But if you do, don’t expect me to care. I have Irish blood in me and I’ve never once given a rat’s ass what a Brit ever thought. Did Churchill’s speech win the war? No? Then get off my back.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Balloon o gram. She and Mr. Greenspan would appreciate it. In many different ways…
trailboss on September 7, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Idnit a little early to looped on Jameson’s?
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Ugh! After going to KOS and underground, my Curser needs to take a shower!
Neocon Peg on September 7, 2008 at 3:49 PM
…Leaving out the fact that revenues will actually go down if taxes go up again.
Count to 10 on September 7, 2008 at 3:51 PM
It’s an optimism scale labeled pessimism :) 1 is like morbidly depressed landslide lose, 9 is like close loss, good show.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Thank you. I’m new here too.
Moxie on September 7, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Ugh! After going to KOS and underground, my Curser needs to take a shower!
Neocon Peg on September 7, 2008 at 3:49 PM
I hear ya, I went to take a look too and now my keyboard smells funny and my monitor is oozing slime.
Bishop on September 7, 2008 at 3:53 PM
You haven’t closed a deal until the check clears the bank.
Business 101.
TheSitRep on September 7, 2008 at 3:55 PM
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