Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error
posted at 1:24 pm on September 7, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Based on a huge sample, too, one-third of which was polled on Thursday before McCain gave his well-received acceptance speech. This is the first Gallup tracker to be conducted entirely after Palinmania on Wednesday night. Result: A three-point bump since yesterday.
Oh my.
McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.
Blogger’s pessimism meter: Now set to level nine, i.e. expecting a heart-stopping finish in which we lose narrowly but congratulate ourselves on making a race out of a campaign we should have lost by 15 points. That’s the highest level since February 2003. Exit question: What if McCain hits 50 percent tomorrow? Will the pessimism meter actually reach the mythical, long-rumored but never conclusively proven to exist level ten?
Update: Pop quiz. Which wingnut stooge said this?
Suddenly, Palin and John McCain are the mavericks and Barack Obama and Joe Biden are the status quo, in a year when you don’t want to be seen as defending the status quo.
From taxes to oil drilling, Democrats are now going to have to start explaining their positions.
Whenever you start having to explain things, you’re on defense…
As for Palin herself, she is going to be very, very effective on the campaign trail, especially if McCain’s people can figure out how to gently keep her from getting into confrontations with the press.
If she can answer questions like she handled herself at the convention, Palin will turn out to be the most interesting person in all of politics, and the press will treat her like they treated Obama when he was first discovered.
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Even CBS news which had Obama up by eight now has them tied
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:27 PM
C’mon, AP, get with the walk.
SteveMG on September 7, 2008 at 1:27 PM
The real indication of a Palinmania, not just a fad, is when NRA picks up an influx of women memberships.
Not the hairdo or glasses, etc.
Sir Napsalot on September 7, 2008 at 1:27 PM
And they havent made an ad of Biden’s drunken “Villages” performance. Thats worth 5.
Chuck Schick on September 7, 2008 at 1:27 PM
Eeyore.
Not if she keeps the west in play, and can flip an Ohio/Pennsylvania/Virgina in the process.
Purple Fury on September 7, 2008 at 1:28 PM
I think you gut the “pessimism meter”, turn it over and use it as a shot glass.
Guardian on September 7, 2008 at 1:28 PM
Allah, are you going to have a pulmenary? Please don’t!
upinak on September 7, 2008 at 1:29 PM
So this doesn’t include the full impact of McCain’s speech, which, bizarrely, was very well received.
DaveS on September 7, 2008 at 1:29 PM
“should gut”
Guardian on September 7, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Allah, peace be upon you… For realsies. :D
Vatican Watcher on September 7, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Prediction: McCain hits 51 in the Gallup and Rasmussen traching by Tuesday. And if they poll congressional preference between the parties again they will see a significant narrowing of the gap there. As a result, things REALLY start to get ugly. Us Weekly? Ha! You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
D0WNT0WN on September 7, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Exit question how long till Huffpo and DailyChaos or DU start plaining their unarmed revolution ?
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Well nap, I am NOT a member of the NRA. But I seriously thiking about becoming one… even if I have to hold my nose.
upinak on September 7, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s a 10 point swing in 4 days
Dudley Smith on September 7, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Awesome!
Now we’ll get to see the Obambi campaign become increasingly unhinged and fall all over themselves. Hopenchange and Whole Foods lefties ain’t gonna get the job done now, fellas. PANIC! PANIC!
fiatboomer on September 7, 2008 at 1:30 PM
man up beta boy :)
windansea on September 7, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Just saw the video of Axelrod with Chris Wallace.
If that’s the best his ‘chief strategist’ can do, Obama’s in real trouble.
Time to hit Barry on his opposition to FISA methinks – haven’t heard much about that yet.
EnglishMike on September 7, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Well I’ll assume that’s the editorial “we.” Since there were many of us never at all onboard with your belief in Barry.
Many of us, in fact, were quite vocal that sooner or later he’d fold like a lawn chair and would go down to a McGovern-sized beating.
Myself among them, I’ll admit that prediction was probably wrong. I’s say it’s more likely to wind up that Barry makes election night 1972 look like a nail-baiter.
Typhoon on September 7, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Racists!
Montana on September 7, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Pour it on! Fighter Pilot vs. Community Organizer – rat-tat-tat-tat! Flop sweat panic time for the Donks!
Bruno Strozek on September 7, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Don’t worry. We’ve already scheduled a NYC Meat Wagon to park outside your building on standby for resuscitation.
Blake on September 7, 2008 at 1:31 PM
LOL. I’m hoping for a bigger bounce for McCain, record levels of pessimism must be reached.
Theworldisnotenough on September 7, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Whaddaya mean, your pessimism meter doesn’t go to 11?
Gotta take the short-term view for now. Just sit back and enjoy the panic that’s about to ensue.
NeighborhoodCatLady on September 7, 2008 at 1:31 PM
The “special sauce” in the polls isn’t cutting it anymore. Add in the Bradley Effect, and McCain is above 50%.
Stay on the offensive, never let up! The Obama team doesn’t know how to play from behind.
alflauren on September 7, 2008 at 1:33 PM
We are going into MOPP level Alpha!
Allah might BLOW!
upinak on September 7, 2008 at 1:33 PM
This ain’t over and we all need to assume they’ll cheat 1-3% points.
The last poll is the one that matters, we’ll meet at dawn.
sven10077 on September 7, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Keep the powder dry…but keep your muskets cocked.
This is one.
Wednesday will determine of it is a drift or a trend when the others come in.
If it is a drift…we gots lots of work to do.
If it is a trend…we gots lots of work to do.
It ain’t a done deal yet…
[Party at Ed's on Victory Night!! AP's buying!!]
coldwarrior on September 7, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Just sprinkle a few drops of the magic elixir, New Castle, on his lips and he’ll be just fine.
Theworldisnotenough on September 7, 2008 at 1:33 PM
I feel pretty much the same way. Frankly…I kinda don’t want to win this year. Its a masochistic streak in me. I have enough curiosity for the collective orgasm the media will have if Obama wins and what Olbermann will do when he can’t complain about the Prez or congress, as well as how all of the other liberal bastions will react. I think Obama and a Dem congress could ruin the country, but I think the policies they want to enact are inevitable sooner or later.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Given how unhinged the left has gotten over Palin, I’m almost afraid to see what they’re going to be like when the polls don’t go their way.
Slublog on September 7, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Finally, AP has found a soulmate.
You two would make a nice couple.
(kidding, now, just kidding)
SteveMG on September 7, 2008 at 1:36 PM
A decent reversal in all the polls in one week. Expected somewhat coming out of the RNC. Just imagine the reaction if there were no bounce.
Instead, this will be largely ignored and the attacks on Palin will intensify. They’re all in and there’s no going back.
JammieWearingFool on September 7, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Please link to LGF (you’ve got to check it out)
Obama:”My muslim faith…” until corrected by George Stephanopoulos.
Sir Napsalot on September 7, 2008 at 1:36 PM
We’ve got 60 days. Three debates, one VP debate, and a seriously pissed off media currently residing in Barack Obama’s colon.
So much can change in just a few days. I think AP is moving up the pessimism meter to 9 too soon …
zmrzlina on September 7, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Obama’s reaction: ahhh ugh ummmm ah ah butt but ah ugh
John Doe on September 7, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Also, if Obama screws up good enough it will open the country up to a glorious conservative revolution led by Palin that I don’t think will happen if the media gets to convince everyone the whole world sucks for another 4 years.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 1:36 PM
This is great news. The state polls usually lag a bit behind the national polls as well. I expect to see a flurry of state polls coming out. Colorado, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Mexico should be at the top of the list.
SouthernGent on September 7, 2008 at 1:36 PM
LOL. I’m heading to Kos and HuffPo right now to catch the meltdown.
lodge on September 7, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Have you spoken with Allah about filling in for him the week the next iPhone model comes out? ‘Cause you coulda fooled me.
fiatboomer on September 7, 2008 at 1:37 PM
C’mon bitch. Man up. You don’t have to gloat, but don’t be so fragile like your alter ego over at the Atlantic. Snap!
Froggy on September 7, 2008 at 1:37 PM
What to do with the pessimism meter?
Stand up stand up, stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable here. We’re Americans, and we never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.
Loxodonta on September 7, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Well, everyone is ignoring the elephant in the room. The only reason that this is a close race is because Americans are all a bunch of racists… says the Philadelphia Inquirer:
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20080907_The_American_Debate__It_s_little_discussed__but_Obama_s_race_may_be_decider.html
I hope everyone will join me in soundly thrashing this piece of race baiting trash by emailing the editor.
Damiano on September 7, 2008 at 1:37 PM
In the end, it will depend on who bothers to vote. If the oomph can be taken out of kiddie vote by turning Obama into the clown candidate, we have a shot.
AP’s vote could win the election the election for McCain/Palin.
Connie on September 7, 2008 at 1:37 PM
The fact that McCain’s speech was well received was a shocka in itself.
Illinidiva on September 7, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Didnt take long the call to moonbatism
From the DU
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:38 PM
What exactly is level 10? Expectations of a “tie” a la 2000 where the final decision is up to SCOTUS?
flipflop on September 7, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Connie on September 7, 2008 at 1:38 PM
I’ve made my prediction already: McCain’s going to win this one by at least 8 percentage points. Obama is such an incredibly weak candidate that it’s inevitable. He’ll get his own base, an unusually high percentage of the black vote, and some moderate percentage of independents. McCain will poll unusually strongly among women, win the independents, garner his own base, and steal some blog dog Democrats.
Democrats will have another navel-examining session like the one that followed the McGovern trouncing, and rearrange their party primary rules again, once again ignoring the plain fact that the reason they keep losing is that when the Democratic party gets away from its corrupt precinct roots and steps into the national limelight, it becomes gradually more and more apparent how insane they really are, and how vastly different from the mainstream of American sentiment.
If Republicans can actually produce reform in the coming years, we can win Congress back and make the Democrats into a permanent minority. True reform is the key — the Amerian people will respond to sincere and effective efforts to rid government of patronage, nest-feathering, and power-brokering.
philwynk on September 7, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Don’t be absurd, Allah. If that happened it would mean the singularity, where the matter-based universe of optimism collides with the anti-matter universe of pessimism.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 1:38 PM
I can hear the wails of agony on Bainbridge Island from here.
fiatboomer on September 7, 2008 at 1:38 PM
That’s not actually outside the MoE, which is 2%. That means the true value for McCain support is somewhere between 46 and 50 percent. Similarly, the true value for Obama support is between 43 and 47 percent.
In other words, there is some overlap.
Gabriel Malor on September 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Didnt take long for the call for the moonbat brigade at the DU
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM
2 months is a long time. Anything could happen. It’s a miracle that our team is doing this well in this year. I’m optimistic enough to think that the McCain-Palin team might just squeak through ahead of Obama-Biden by a whisker!
Jill1066 on September 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM
This is a great moment. John McCain has pulled off some great moves in his career and this is one of the best. McCain and Palin in 2008!!
afotia on September 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM
The wheels are cleanly off the bus. Look for more desperation-induced gaffes by The One, who may be facing adversity for the first time in his life.
Cicero43 on September 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM
yeah, well, sorry to give away the ending, but here’s what will happen:
We’ll have ten freaking years of depression but it won’t be Obama’s fault.
It’ll be George Boooooosh’s fault.
Oh, don’t believe me?
Well, just substitute the names Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover for Barry and W.
There are some things you just don’t need to experience to know you’d rather not be a part of.
Typhoon on September 7, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Anyone have Olbermann, Matthews and Sullivan on suicide watch? It would be the humanitarian thing to do.
Karl on September 7, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Okay, let’s be positive for a second. What if McCain wins? That would be so confusing and awesome all at the same time. I wrote this election off (probably like AP) months ago, because I think the shallow, idiotic people in this country would rather let a black guy with high rhetoric into the white house than keep a Marxist out.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 1:41 PM
THe DU is already sounding the call for every trashy rumor they can come up with to be slung
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:41 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6973946&mesg_id=6973946
They’re already having a meltdown at DU.
Enoxo on September 7, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Blogger’s pessimism meter: Now set to level nine, i.e. expecting a heart-stopping finish in which we lose narrowly but congratulate ourselves on making a race out of a campaign we should have lost by 15 points.
“Allah” as always, snatches Defeat out of the Jaws of Victoy!
You also continually misunderestimate the “Bradley Effect”!
I say that Barack HUSSEIN Obama (PBUH); has to be UP by a Solid 5 Points, at least, on Election Day, to pull this off…….thankfully…..
Dale in Atlanta on September 7, 2008 at 1:41 PM
…We need to be throwing every last molecule of shit we’ve got at McCain and Palin.
Stop paying even an ounce of respect to them. They’ve proved they don’t deserve it.
Demonize them. Dehumanize them.
Stop with the obligatory respectful nods to McCain’s service and time in the Hanoi Hilton and start calling him Wetstart and Songbird.
And the Wicket Bitch of the North already has so many scandals that a hundred million in ads over the remaining weeks of election season should utterly destroy her.
Why do we insist on being the nice guys? That gets our asses kicked by those bullying Rethug pieces of shit every time!
HURT THEM!!! NOW!!!
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Palin on the VP ticket completely removes Virginia from being a battleground state.
AP, what would we do without your trademark pessimism?
Spc Steve on September 7, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Ah…here is the video I was looking for, Allah. You see, you are independent George and the tenth level is relationship George.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Palinmania!
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Miss this one
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Whoever mentioned voter fraud is right. In Pennsylvania, McCain needs about a 4% margin to win. In Florida, about 2%. The only good thing about national polls is that McCain can easily win the electoral college without winning the popular vote nationwide. Shades of BUSH STOLE MY ELECTION (Algore).
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on September 7, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Biden better hire a food taster…and fast!
John Doe on September 7, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Worse than I thought
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Heh. How can you tell the difference between meltdown and a regular discussion at that pit?
Slublog on September 7, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Well said.
OR McCain can open up the borders and create a gigantic disadvantage for us.
marklmail on September 7, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Umm, he takes the oath of office?
He then governs. Mostly from a (roughly )center-right perspective with bits of infuriating left-of-center policies.
Anyway, self-government is the governing of the self. We make our own lives, our own fortunes, our own way. We just want a government that makes the best conditions possible for us to succeed or fail. On or own. No guarantees.
Yes, you can, not yes, we can.
SteveMG on September 7, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Don’t laugh at my math, but approximately speaking the 11% swing in a week to GOP ticket indicates that, so far, the convention has changed the minds of 13 million voters.
I’m assuming 120 million voters on November.
Considering the biggest jump in Gallup poll took place as 2/3’s of McCain Speech being counted indicates that we have some more to go on the good side… and that his impact has been greater than anyone might have predicted. Certainly me.
Shivas Irons on September 7, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Subtle differences, but it’s noticable.
Especially with this post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132×6974394
Enoxo on September 7, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Fun crosstab: the Hispanic gap is back up to 40 points.
omriceren on September 7, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Drunk Report on September 7, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Here’s the magic formula:
McCain can cede the west coast states, New England, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, the upper mid-west (Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin).
If he keeps the south & middle-west, he wins.
Key for McCain: Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado.
According to RCP, he’s up (sometimes by a hair, sometimes by a good bit) or tied in all of them. Palin ought to help in all of these states.
Prediction: 274-264, McCain.
Expect the media to go after her like a pack of hungry wolves. We ain’t seen nothin yet.
Purple Fury on September 7, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Hah! Was watching the Jets-Dolphins game and now Bambi is gonna run to another Democrat stooge ,Letterman, for some latenight softballs.
This guy is pathetic, and I think the people are starting to catch on to this featherweight.
jjshaka on September 7, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Thanks, I think that AP’s pessimism might be just a bit too infective. It meshes with my natural expectations for the worst far too well. I guess to be happy about the US I need to stop reading this blog. But that won’t happen.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 1:47 PM
No reason for pessimism: I predict Sarah Palin will continue to galvanize the US Voters and bring a much larger turn out on election day for the GOP.
Yes, Yes, Obama’s camp will continue the lies and attacks but most Americans are smarter than they think.
katablog.com on September 7, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Nah they don’t get it…Mr. “New Politics” will destroy his administration the more over the top they get.
Their congress has an approval rating of 9-14%, their media6-10%.
Even if they “win” at this rate they’ll lose.
sven10077 on September 7, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Funny thing is at the DU they were warning McCain to get a food taster because James Dobson was going to kill McCain to install “The wicked witch of the North”
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Shite. Damn your hide, Mr. Amos! I was all set to post that very same comment. :-)
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 1:49 PM
nice…
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Interesting view from Carolynn Glick re the backlash against Palin:
That’s a little incoherent to me but I think the fundamental point is sound.
It also point out, as a sidebar, which “tribe” Sullivan belongs to.
For all of his talk about being “conservatism of doubt”, Sullivan is – stripped down to the essentials – a man of the emotional left. Perhaps not philosophical or ideological left; but emotional left.
And as Glick argues, he must bring out the politics of personal destruction when the contradiction between his stated belief and his actual behavior is exposed.
SteveMG on September 7, 2008 at 1:50 PM
William Amos on September 7, 2008 at 1:49 PM
That’s par for the course when dealing with lunatics.
Ryan Gandy on September 7, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Me$$iah: “Thanks for the save George, um uh uh I think that uhm we should only ah question the faith of er uh women from uh ah siberia/east….uhm y’know?”
sven10077 on September 7, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Allah, I hope you can get out of “every silver lining has a cloud” mode. Remember what Rush says, “Conservatism — works every time it’s tried.” The selection of Sarah Palin is proof.
scrubjay on September 7, 2008 at 1:53 PM
BREAKING NEWS!!!
Obama says:
“Those Bush tax cut things, well… they aren’t such a bad idea for now.”
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/07/obama-recession-could-delay-end-to-bush-tax-cuts/
How much room does he have under that bus?
Damiano on September 7, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Gonna’ need a bigger bus.
(yeah, Jaws)
SteveMG on September 7, 2008 at 1:55 PM
It doesn’t matter if McCain is up now, the polls will soon show Obama back in the lead. Wouldn’t we all be better off to ignore polls?
BOYCOTT THE POLLS!
m064404 on September 7, 2008 at 1:56 PM
They are terrified of her and for good reason. They always hated Bush for his religious inclinations, but when it came to religion he was a johnny-come-lately who worshipped at mainstream churches.
Arctic Fox is the real deal – she has been evangelical since birth and actually, indisputably, believes in the Christian faith.
And this terrifies them because, essentially, they are, at best, atheists and, at worst, anti-Christians. Keep in mind that these are people who have very serious, very deep, God issues.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 1:56 PM
Blasphemy against “The Wholly One”!!!
Bicyea on September 7, 2008 at 1:56 PM
I am confused. The pessimism level goes up as we get better news?
poljunkie on September 7, 2008 at 1:57 PM
I refuse to trust the polls. Play as if there’s two minutes left in the fourth quarter and we’re down by 6. Don’t play to hold on to a win, play to win, keep hammering Senator Zero.
Can we verify that he actually had a 143 days of work experience before declaring his run for the Presidency? “143″ should quickly become a theme this month, turning him into a child compared to McCain and Palin.
El_Terrible on September 7, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Oh man, I’m in tears reading the DU. And 1/3 of these people hadn’t seen McCain. He could go higher. The flag thing and this muslim thing might get some traction too.
lodge on September 7, 2008 at 1:58 PM
But…but…but…I thought higher taxes were supposed to be better for the economy? Another shameless flip flop by Obama.
jimmy the notable on September 7, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Thank you, Dale. I was just going to write about that myself. We can’t trust the poll numbers for Obama.
Good question, Karl, one that begs another. Which of these three will be the first to describe the Palin poll bounce as a jiggle?
Terrie on September 7, 2008 at 1:59 PM
Hey upinak – I became an Endowment Member at the NRA convention in Kentucky this year and it didn’t hurt a bit.
They really are the good guys about gun safety, laws, keeping government off our weapons. C’mon and be a member!
tru2tx on September 7, 2008 at 1:59 PM
I uh uh uhm uh reeally need the job and it has ah ah always been my uh position that uh uh uhm these tax cuts are uh uhm a good way to uh uh….
sven10077 on September 7, 2008 at 2:01 PM
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