Rasmussen: Women shifting to McCain
posted at 10:10 am on September 6, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows little overall movement in the topline numbers today, with two-thirds of responses coming after Sarah Palin’s blockbuster speech at the Republican convention. McCain trails now by one, and still by three when leaners are included. However, Rasmussen detects a movement in a key demographic that could spell disaster for Barack Obama:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46%. …
As McCain has begun to chip away as Obama’s convention bounce, most of his gains have come among women voters. Obama still leads 51% to 44% among women, but that seven-point edge is just half the fourteen point lead he enjoyed last Tuesday. McCain leads by three among men, little changed in recent days.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.
Two key shifts here are enthusiasm and women. The Democratic convention did not produce a significant enthusiasm bounce for Obama, but one appears to have developed for McCain, who needs it more. Women have apparently responded positively to the selection of Sarah Palin to the ticket, and McCain has halved the gender gap with a third of the respondents still having not heard her speech Wednesday.
The overall numbers for Obama’s bounce didn’t develop until Tuesday of this week, four days after the end of the convention. Rasmussen warns against reading too much into the topline numbers until Tuesday or Wednesday. The hesitancy in the numbers could also be the result of the deluge of smears and innuendo that hit Palin earlier in the week, and which only got debunked at the end of the convention or later.
McCain’s foundational numbers have begun to sharply improve since the Palin selection, and especially since her speech. He appears ready to get a significant bounce coming out of the convention, but we’ll have to wait a little longer to see if it arrives.
Blowback
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It’s ladies night….
RobCon on September 6, 2008 at 10:13 AM
Good news.
canne on September 6, 2008 at 10:13 AM
tick-tock, tick-tock…..
here it comes.
sven10077 on September 6, 2008 at 10:14 AM
The Sun (UK)
Even the Brits are taking notice.
RobCon on September 6, 2008 at 10:14 AM
I predict Palin will win over more men for McCain than women.
She will attract hunters, fisherman, Union memebers, snowmobilers and a few guys mumbling in the voting booth, “She’s HOT.”
Elizabetty on September 6, 2008 at 10:15 AM
I’m hoping she can inspire those unlikely to normally vote – disaffected by Washington – into voting for this ticket.
lorien1973 on September 6, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Kos headline on November 5th——”PALIN STOLE ELECTION!”
Rovin on September 6, 2008 at 10:19 AM
And Palinmania takes to the polls!
TheNolan on September 6, 2008 at 10:20 AM
But, but…they had rock stars and fireworks!
Disturb the Universe on September 6, 2008 at 10:21 AM
It seems clear (at least to me) that if McCain had gone with Romney or Pawlenty – that is, a safe pick – that Obama would have a solid 5-7+ lead, if not more. And I’m sure that more middle-class female voters would have slowly, over time, migrated back to the Democratic ticket. Palin still gives McCain a chance to win them over.
It’s still a big gamble; but it’s one that increasingly looks like a smart one given the alternative.
As I’ve said before, I hope they’ve hoped up a IV unit and are giving Palin those briefing books. She has to be near-perfect. If she gets the name of the Minister of Sewage for Pago Pago wrong, she’ll be hammered.
SteveMG on September 6, 2008 at 10:21 AM
Rachel Maddow, speaking on MSNBC during post-MCCain speech round-up, stated that a representative of Jews for Jesus had spoken in Sarah Palin’s Wasilla church recently with her in attendance. According to Maddow, during that event the speaker indicated that Israel deserved being bombed by terrorists because Jews had not converted to christianity. Chris Mathews immediately asked Maddow for her source. She stated that her source was Politico.com.
Since when is it considered good journalisms to quote one web site as a source for a story? Aren’t national journalists supposed to independently confirm two sources on a story?
Where has this smear gone since Thursday night? I read the NYT story up top in the headlines..no mention of this supposed statement by Jews for Jesus though they do confirm that the group did speak in the Wasilla Bible Church. Also, no mention of Palin attending.
Ms. Maddow owes her viewers a retraction or needs to site further sources.
DrW on September 6, 2008 at 10:21 AM
Oh heck, the Kos crowd has already decided that we are going to steal this election. Now they are saying that Goc. Palin is impeachment insurance when John McCain is implicated in the Bush War Crimes. I kid you not.
rockmom on September 6, 2008 at 10:22 AM
This election is not even going to be close.
x-wing on September 6, 2008 at 10:24 AM
SteveMG on September 6, 2008 at 10:21 AM
Steve-I agree, but the MGen of the Alaska NG says she is a very quick study-I have all the faith in the world she will be ready..
Static21 on September 6, 2008 at 10:27 AM
DrW on September 6, 2008 at 10:21 AM
Going after her chuch only invites the reopening of the Rev. Wright controversy. And doesn’t Palin have an Israeli flag in her office?
Disturb the Universe on September 6, 2008 at 10:28 AM
I don’t trust any of these polls- they all seem to be run/sponsered by Dem’s. What are the most, (if any) legit polls? What I do know for sure is that women I know, who have NEVER had a decent thing to say about any Republican, love Sarah Palin! Why is there no talk of women who are going to vote for McCain/Palin not because she’s a woman, ala Hillary, but because they so completely dislike Obama?
anniekc on September 6, 2008 at 10:29 AM
If Oprah continues to shun Palin, I bet that even more women will flock to the McCain ticket.
m064404 on September 6, 2008 at 10:30 AM
Squealing pigs of liberal media are getting louder and louder. Wonder why?
saved on September 6, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Great story under headlines. Don’t mess with those small town, bible-hugging gun-clingers.
Disturb the Universe on September 6, 2008 at 10:32 AM
I’ll bet a lot of Obama supporters are lying to the pollsters.
Notice how the whole conversation is about Palin vs. Obama? Biden’s fallen off the map.
John the Libertarian on September 6, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Even if the story is true, I fail to see how it’s relevant to anything. Palin is not the pastor of her church, she is merely a member. She is not responsible for the opinions or statements of individuals who speak to the congregation.
This is just another example of the increasingly desperate attempts by the liberal media (of whom Rachel Maddow is one of the most pathetic examples) to smear Palin.
AZCoyote on September 6, 2008 at 10:34 AM
m064404 on September 6, 2008 at 10:30 AM
And her ratings drop.
Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
Disturb the Universe on September 6, 2008 at 10:34 AM
And styrofoam Greek Columns!
JohnnyD on September 6, 2008 at 10:37 AM
I was one of those folks who was going to vote against Obama. That kind of attitude makes it really easy not to bother to vote at all. Now I will happily vote for the Republican ticket and may even put a sticker on my car window. I have never done that. Minor new experience.
Cindy Munford on September 6, 2008 at 10:39 AM
It’s been over a week since Governor Palin hit the stage.
Think of the massive resources that the democrat party has directed to destroying this candidate. You’ve got the Soros cash, the Larry Flynt pervert brigade, the left wing freakosphere, and of course, the shameless democrat shills in the lame duck media giving their unethical campaign contributions to the democrat party with every word they grunt.
After all this, what do they have to show?
Jack Squat, that’s what.
Time is running out, and democrats are only going to get more reckless and more obscene. Think of the next 59 days as a prolonged Wellstone Funeral!
jeff_from_mpls on September 6, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Yes, to some extent. However, the media have unwittingly partially immunized her by throwing out so much trash already, that has been proven untrue and exposed their bias. So, even if she makes a legitimate stumble, I think it won’t be particularly injurious, because by now, everyone knows the media is out to get her. They have impeached themselves, and I think the general voting public will be quite forgiving. Another example of unintended consequences.
a capella on September 6, 2008 at 10:43 AM
….. for being outed as a lying POS?
Again?
Why should (she) start now?
wise_man on September 6, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Gretchen Wilsons Baracuda http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxLuT1ZvOj0
Tazz 55 on September 6, 2008 at 10:45 AM
I didn’t even know Pago Pago had a Minister of Sewage.
Mr. Wednesday Night on September 6, 2008 at 10:48 AM
But the latest polls I’ve seen still show something like 60% of the public has no opinion about Palin. She’s still a blank slate.
If she makes a mistake, the press and the Democratics (but I repeat myself) will jump on it and the latenight comedians will run with it as far as possible.
On the other hand, if she comes through with a solid, substantive performance, the benefits will increase that much more.
My guess is that she’ll either come out spectacularly good or flop completely. Or shakily, and it’ll be portrayed as a failure.
The press is just itching so say, “We told you so” and use any failure to buttress their argument about the importance they play in the political process.
Much to win; much to lose.
SteveMG on September 6, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Explains why Obama went crying to Hillary.
I am a little surprised that Hillary is getting involved at this point. If Obama loses, she can run again in 2012 and won’t really have to worry about Obama as an opponent. If Obama wins, she is locked out until at least 2016,facing a likely base ready for a change from the Democrats.
And if Hillary jumps onto the anti Palin bandwagon, she is going to run a genuine risk of alienating those that supported her this year. She will be branded as a sell out.
Jim M. on September 6, 2008 at 10:49 AM
I was at a BBQ the other day and we were talking about this. Everyone was stating how invigorated they were now to vote for John McCain all because they love Palin (it ranged from she is hot, but mostly followed up with how smart she is) and they were all wanting to vote McCain/PAlin now, happily! I will for the first time volunteer at the local Republican office and put up yard signs, etc. Happily!
akerralls on September 6, 2008 at 10:49 AM
I just got back from the grocery store, and all I saw was Sarah Palin at the checkout. She was on at least 4 magazines, I’m not even sure what they all were.
It’s an all out blitz to marginalize her.
reaganaut on September 6, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Maybe the message of America is an evil, broken country isn’t appealing to anyone besides Michelle Obama and the liberal media.
trs on September 6, 2008 at 10:51 AM
Hey, I had a conversation the other day and my recollection was that the race really tightened up over the way Democrats acted at Wellstone’s funeral. I see some others remember it that way too!
When good folks see the hatefulness of the Democrats on display it has to make you pause and say is that what I want to be a part of?
petunia on September 6, 2008 at 10:54 AM
Very good! Another smear exposed!
petunia on September 6, 2008 at 10:57 AM
As for the delayed reaction, I know it’s a constant trial for political junkies, but 60 – 70% of the people who will vote, and a even larger proportion out of a Registered Voter sample, will not have watched Palin’s speech. They actually have lives, or would rather watch ROADHOUSE on a movie channel than view the most interesting political major debut in recent history. Same goes for the McCain speech, of course.
Many among those who can be moved will be moved not by news coverage, but by word of mouth and peer pressure from people who did watch the speech, or by intuitive reactions to spots and snippets. Since human beings are 97% water, they tend to go with their local flow.
CK MacLeod on September 6, 2008 at 10:57 AM
She’s still has a lot of debt, doesn’t she? She’s just selling out.
If she does run in 2012, this needs to be brought up. I fail to see how she can court women voters at all, if she does this. Not only did she stick with the prevert ((C) Archie Bunker) in chief for political reasons, she helped slander the women he abused.
Then again, I never could fully understand the liberal mind.
reaganaut on September 6, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Sorry, it was me. Got it from some British journalist living here.
Using the term “journalist” extremely loosely.
SteveMG on September 6, 2008 at 10:58 AM
I wonder how many nanoseconds it will take for the Left to declare that McCain/Palin cheated and stole the election.
GT on September 6, 2008 at 11:01 AM
I was a bit concerned about what would happen if Bush won & Kerry lost. As it turned out, not much.
This time …. I don’t know.
wise_man on September 6, 2008 at 11:02 AM
a capella on September 6, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Is this another “Rove, you magnificant bastard” maneuver?–Get the sharks to overextend and lose their credibility. Instant teflon!
In any case, there is still work to do. Those percentage points won’t disappear on their own. McCain has gone high, which means risks. They have to follow through. He has energized the party, etc. The base needs to work.
To the believers out there: Pray for health for them and their families, and for Palin being the quick study we know she is.
We can do this!
Tommygun on September 6, 2008 at 11:03 AM
Jim, you don’t understand the mysteries of the human intellect.
Hillary will stand up on the stage in pantsuit attire, and she will say whatever words the Obama campaign has loaded into the teleprompter. She’ll mimic the arm movements and facial expressions of the textbook orators. And yet, somehow, a different message will be communicated. How can this be?
Well, think of the way a hostage can signal that he is speaking under coercion while reading a script that the enemy has prepared. The little hesitations, the eye movements, the head tilt. These things can’t be quantified.
Or think of Sigmund Freud who, on exiting Vienna after it had come under Nazi occupation, was forced to sign a declaration that the Gestapo had treated him, a prominent Jew, with respect. Doctor Freud famously wrote, “I can heartily recommend the Gestapo to anyone.”
jeff_from_mpls on September 6, 2008 at 11:04 AM
akerralls on September 6, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Thank you!!
Tazz 55 on September 6, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Get her on the campaign trial!
Tommygun on September 6, 2008 at 11:06 AM
Tommygun on September 6, 2008 at 11:06 AM
I know about the legal thing.
Tommygun on September 6, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I just bought 10 of these:
http://www.mccainstore.com/M600-1013.htm
We are only a 4 car family but I am expecting sticker wars.
eyesky on September 6, 2008 at 11:08 AM
McCain needs a slogan for his economic policy.
How about “Lower taxes, and Palin too.”
indythinker on September 6, 2008 at 11:10 AM
I hope this denigration by the left continues.
Sarah Palin is everyMom.
Mom’s are not taking the insults well.
drjohn on September 6, 2008 at 11:17 AM
LOL
drjohn on September 6, 2008 at 11:17 AM
So now the hypocritical smear machine which is helping push along this change in attitudes will kick into high gear. And they will call us stupid. Please, mention Obama’s superior Hah-vahd roots again.
Beagle on September 6, 2008 at 11:21 AM
Perhaps this libtard dyke should have gone to the source itself for the transcript of that event. I have and I can find nothing in the remarks given that day that even remotely confirms her scurrilous charge. If you care to either hear it (or, to save time, peruse the transcript, it’s the third sermon on the list, dated 8-17-08.
ManlyRash on September 6, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Indeed.
And Oprah is going to find out that she is no longer “every woman.”
wise_man on September 6, 2008 at 11:28 AM
C’mon, that’s out of bounds.
Attack her thoughts and views; not her.
SteveMG on September 6, 2008 at 11:29 AM
The Democrats are saying: Sarah Palin is a bad choice for the McCain ticket.
The Democrats are thinking: Damn! Why didn’t Obama select a woman V.P. candidate?
Democrats are saying: She’s a woman, she has 5 children; she won’t be able to care for those children.
Democrat are thinking: Let’s hope no one realizes that Nancy Pelosi also had 5 kids several years ago.
Democrats are saying: Palin does not have the experience needed to be V.P.
Democrats are thinking: Gosh! Obama has NO executive experience and he’s a Presidential candidate.
Everyone is saying: Sarah Palin is just right. Let’s elect her and take America back.
AdrianS on September 6, 2008 at 11:40 AM
In 2016, Hillary would be 69 – almost as old as the “too old” McCain.
SouthernRoots on September 6, 2008 at 11:43 AM
When advertisers come to understand the demographic of the MSNBC audience only includes those interested in creative uses for mayonnaise, recently sheared sheep and getting high, the only advertisers will be Hellman’s, Nair and Zig Zag.
CC
CapedConservative on September 6, 2008 at 11:43 AM
You are correct, of course, and I apologize to Ms. Maddow and to everyone here for my intemperate remark.
ManlyRash on September 6, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Sometimes, maybe even a lot of times, the only risky thing to do is not take a chance.
Count to 10 on September 6, 2008 at 11:46 AM
You, sir (or madame) are a wonderful human being. Just wanted you to know that.
wise_man on September 6, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Clever bastard. Damn, I envy you. *sigh* Blast my slow wits.
ManlyRash on September 6, 2008 at 11:58 AM
McCain knows that the slow consistent torture is the most effective.
Point by point, week by week, Obama slips…and it is torture.
right2bright on September 6, 2008 at 12:01 PM
I think the huge silent majority in the middle has finally had enough of the media and liberal smears of us.
We are tired of being called rubes, rednecks, and yahoos.
The US magazine response and Oprah shows this may finally be happening.
Watch out Hollywood when we stop going to yourt trashy movies and buying the DVDs that glorify queers and perverts and denigrate Middle America, Armed Forces etc.
Take America back from the filth and sewage that the porn industry and Hollywood send into our homes. Don’t buy the CDs from the music industry. Boycott sponsors of filthy prime time TV programs.
txdoc on September 6, 2008 at 12:12 PM
Right On! Chinese water torture drop-by-drop and matched by the Big Zero tear-by-tear and whining.
txdoc on September 6, 2008 at 12:16 PM
They had Rasmussen and a guy from Gallup on O’Rielly last night and both of them said the big day to start looking at the numbers would be Monday, and even then, both of them said it could take until as late as Wendsday to get the full picture on how McCain/Palin have come out of the convention. These early signs are encouraging, but not complete. Let’s wait and see what the numbers look like on Monday morning when they release those numbers.
These early number do look pretty good though.
SuperCool on September 6, 2008 at 12:22 PM
SuperCool’s comments from Rasmussen/Gallup are what I have been saying for days. The weekend polling usually skews left — and today’s numbers from Friday are the least reliable. GOPers have better things to do on Friday nights than talk to pollsters; been that way for decades.
Karl on September 6, 2008 at 12:32 PM
In the last week, 42% of likely Obama voters have:
X smoked dope
X contracted a venereal disease
X stolen something
whitetop on September 6, 2008 at 12:35 PM
very interesting numbers. While I think Palin will attract a fair amount of voters…I actually think issues might have something to do with it, perhaps tradiional family values.
I really liked what McCain had to say about school choice, keeping taxes lows, and staying on offense in the war on terror. As a mom, those issues are very important to me.
As someone living in IL…taxes here are sky high..*sigh*
stuck_in_Obama_land on September 6, 2008 at 12:58 PM
My wife is a pro choice Democrat and is voting McCain Palin. She is offended by the attacks on Governor Palin and said she will contribute and is even willing to volunteer.
Well know hope! Change we can believe in.
Mr. Joe on September 6, 2008 at 1:10 PM
It doesn’t bother me that Ms. Maddow chooses to look like an East German shotputter from the 80s whose testosterone level is too high for (her) to compete as a woman. That’s (her) business as long as (she) stays away from my daughter.
It’s this talking head’s shameless sneering condescension that puts (her) in the “insufferable liberal twit” pantheon along with a host of others. Air America hasn’t lost a daughter–MSNBC has gained another SOB, who continue to outnumber their viewers.
horatio on September 6, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Maybe Obama should start saying that he will the the first female president. That sort of strategy seemed to work for Bill Clinton.
Can.Utility on September 6, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Oh, it arrived alright. Palinmania is everywhere. Most of it is very positive. Hearts and minds are changing.
Guardian on September 6, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Absolutely.
Does the MSNBC human resources team throw out every resume that they get that doesn’t have “shameless sneering condescension” listed in the first paragraph of the applicant’s list of credentials.
wise_man on September 6, 2008 at 1:55 PM
The Democrats are saying: Sarah Palin is a bad choice for the McCain ticket.
The Democrats are thinking: Damn! Why didn’t Obama select a woman V.P. candidate?
AdrianS on September 6, 2008 at 11:40 AM
Point One: Hillary’s not available.
Point Two: Joe B. goes in for the operation next Tuesday.
Doug on September 6, 2008 at 2:58 PM
LOL! That conjures up strange mental images. Think we’ll be able tell these two hockey moms apart?
Fortunata on September 6, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Send your Lib friends info about Rezko, Ayers, and Obama’s Socialist ties. Explain how his tax policies will cost them jobs and send our economy into a depression.
marklmail on September 6, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Seems to me that there’s always a time lag before reactions actually show up in the polls. I’m not sure why people seem to expect that a three day rolling poll will be definitve on the third day, when it almost never happens that way. Even when people react strongly to something, it can take awhile for that sensation to settle into an actual position. I can’t imagine that we’ll really know anything particularly reliable till Monday — at the earliest.
JM Hanes on September 7, 2008 at 5:57 AM