CBS poll: McCain now tied with Obama — after trailing by eight points three days ago
posted at 5:40 pm on September 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
A 48/40 lead after the convention turns quickly to dust. Better still, the new poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, so her speech hasn’t fully impacted yet.
No crosstabs yet, but note well the trends in enthusiasm. Dude, I think she might be … The One.
McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama’s supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain’s. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain’s supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama’s supporters…
Independents in this poll are divided. In the poll conducted over the weekend, Obama had a six-point advantage with this group, but now the lead is three points, 39 percent to 36 percent.
The poll also shows that the majority of Clinton supporters continue to support Obama – 67 percent in this poll, up from 58 percent last weekend.
McCain has seen a similar uptick from white evangelicals since the weekend – 66 percent now, up from 57 percent.
The base solidifies, Hillary voters come home, and it’s a duel to the death for independents. I like these odds, as much as anyone constitutionally incapable of believing in victory can. (We’re still down seven in Gallup!) Kaus offers the Democrats some good advice on Palin going forward; read it and ponder while I go turn the dial of my pessimism meter up from level seven to level eight, i.e. resigned to heart-ache but now hoping for a smaller than expected margin of defeat. Exit question: When does the first creepy cultish poster of Palin emerge?
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »
There is a god, isn’t there?
lorien1973 on September 4, 2008 at 5:41 PM
Ugh. Hopefully long time from now.
Spirit of 1776 on September 4, 2008 at 5:44 PM
WHOA there Allah of the pundits. Becareful what you say…. You shall not make this woman a Saint … yet!
upinak on September 4, 2008 at 5:44 PM
Hillary supporters just cannot support a pro-life ticket… I hope the independents can
Hunt035 on September 4, 2008 at 5:44 PM
EeyorePundit, do you ever see the glass half full?
Disturb the Universe on September 4, 2008 at 5:45 PM
All Bush’s fault.
Del Dolemonte on September 4, 2008 at 5:46 PM
MAVERICK!*-welcome to the surge 2 Barry…..
*on afterburner
sven10077 on September 4, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Uh, oh…I think Allah just went to 9 on the Allahpundit Optimism Scale™.
Would that be Moribund?
flipflop on September 4, 2008 at 5:46 PM
This is going to be such an awesome two months.
eski502 on September 4, 2008 at 5:46 PM
so even if McCain loses, Palin 2012
jp on September 4, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Howard Fineman on MSNBC just accused the McCain campaign of trying to intimidate reporters.
BuckeyeSam on September 4, 2008 at 5:47 PM
GO SARAH!!!!!!
Cicero43 on September 4, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Oh EFF yes. I love me some SP.
krispy on September 4, 2008 at 5:47 PM
That must be sarcasm Allah.
There’s just no way that can be optimism….no way….
FiveWays on September 4, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Thrilling news, bye bye Barry bounce. Michelle needs to measure the Hyde Park mansion for new curtains cause she’s not going to be moving into the WHite House!
clnurnberg on September 4, 2008 at 5:48 PM
jp on September 4, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Yeah, but it’s not time to settle yet!
Disturb the Universe on September 4, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Fineman turned tail and accused Obama’s campaign of protecting him too. I think Matthews is disappointed.
BuckeyeSam on September 4, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Yeah, I hope she doesn’t turn in to our “One”, because that will backfire, the same way it has on Obama. Luckily, she has a resume, and can hopefully benefit from backlash against the media, but I would like to appeal to everyone to not allow us to make her “The One” for our side. We like her, but let’s leave celebrity/deity stuff alone. I was saddened to see a couple of women with watery eyes (though not crying) after her speech last night, because I was so annoyed at all the numskulls practically being slain in the spirit and speaking in tongues at the site of Barry after his speech, including Oprah, who I believe quote “cried her eyelashes off”.
RightWinged on September 4, 2008 at 5:49 PM
The country is still almost 50:50 polarised.
I still think that Americans really don’t like being talked down to and that is largely why Bush beat the Goracle and Kerry. Bush wasn’t anyone’s favourite but at least he didn’t condescend overtly. Obama-Biden simply reek of condescension (clinging to guns and god….and worse) and I think it will be their undoing. That is part of the genius in McCain’s pick of a ‘hockey mom’.
Daresay the leftists know this which is why Palin is catching such an inordinate amount of flak.
Ares on September 4, 2008 at 5:49 PM
And the reporters have been doing what? Beating up on a child and lying through their teeth. If McCain sticks it to them good for him!
clnurnberg on September 4, 2008 at 5:49 PM
And Tony Rezko is going to be in no position to help them buy another house.
Disturb the Universe on September 4, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Oh, by the way… I’m liking this poll, because I’ve long considered CBS’s polls to be the most liberally biased in most cases (for example, they always tend to somehow get the “all time low” approval rating for Bush that is a point or so lower than the others). For them to be showing a tie is really something, IMO.
RightWinged on September 4, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Can’t wait to see the numbers in gallup and rasmussen on saturday.
I love polls. Much like Rove.
lodge on September 4, 2008 at 5:50 PM
What do you expect? Obama’s had a tough week so far.
-
4 more years of the same-
Change you can believe in-
Change we need- The sea began to rise… a little too much in New Orleans but not enough for him the play the Katrina card some more.
-
John McCain just doesn’t get itAll he is left with is, “I have more experience because I have been running for President longer…”
Damiano on September 4, 2008 at 5:51 PM
And Tony Rezko is going to be in no position to help them buy another house.
Disturb the Universe on September 4, 2008 at 5:50 PM
clnurnberg on September 4, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Sarah Palin: Kickin’ @SS and takin’ names baby!!
nickj116 on September 4, 2008 at 5:51 PM
I can’t say when, but I’ll bet it’ll be a hockey stick being stuffed through the Obama “O”.
BuckeyeSam on September 4, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Libertarians are coming home to the GOP post-Palin speech.
The Libertarian Vice-Presidential candidate Wayne Root just warmly praised her speech as a “performance for the ages,” and is a hairs-width away from an outright endorsement.
We’ve got it up at LR blog.
Never before in the history of the Libertarian movement has something like this happened.
ericdondero on September 4, 2008 at 5:52 PM
[reposted from dead thread]
Hey, fellow HotHeads, this headline on Drudge is harshing my Palin Buzz:
PALIN RAISES MONEY — FOR OBAMA! **Exclusive** Obama scores $8 million since Palin’s speech from over 130,000 donors – on pace to hit $10 million by the time John McCain hits stage, campaign says… Developing…
What do you make of that? $8M/130K = average of $61.54 per donor, although there are probably some big-money donors in there balancing out the $5s and $10s from the college students’ allowances.
Are these people who were on the fence, saw Our Sarah’s speech, and said, “She’s not offering me anything, I’ll go with Obama”? Or are they Obamafans who saw the speech and are now terrified that The Big O won’t be coasting to victory, after all? (That would be my preferred scenario, but I can see the other one, too.)
Cheer me up here, quick, before I go curl up in the cellar next to our beloved blog proprietor!
(Speaking of whom: AllahP, where’s your tip jar? I owe you and Ed big time for all the hard work you’ve been doing.)
Mary in LA on September 4, 2008 at 5:52 PM
We still have the uhh..uhh..uhh..uhh..uhh..debates yet to go, still plenty of time for Baracky to further showcase his vapidity.
Bishop on September 4, 2008 at 5:52 PM
That sounds awfully low. I’m enthusiastic enough for three people.
Adding songs to my Ipod Palin playlist…”Another One Bites the Dust” followed by “Barracuda”…
Nosferightu on September 4, 2008 at 5:52 PM
They’re too busy making slutty .GIFs of her. Rather tasteless, but typical moonbat tactics.
*refrains, due to possible bad connotations*
Grue in the Attic on September 4, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Hey AP,
How in the world have you not started a thread on this article?
This has to be the most damning article on Obama ever written. Heads will be exploding all over DNC HQ after they read this.
BTW, I walked into my county Republican office this morning and gave $100 to the party for the first time in my life. (I also told the nice lady not to give one thin dime to that RINO #@(*& Gordon Smith). That’s how much Palin kicked ass. She was wonderful. Wait until the polls show her impact in the next few days. Bathtub Boy will be pissing himself.
Agent of the Cross on September 4, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Hmm. Rezko is from Syria. Notice a pattern here?
Disturb the Universe on September 4, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Yes.
nickj116 on September 4, 2008 at 5:53 PM
I hope someone points out tonight that McCain was elected and Obama was selected (by the Super Delegates). I have not heard anyone mention this yet.
jerseyman on September 4, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Never, most likely. Any picture of SARAH’CUDA suffices for us quietly chant U-S-A, U-S-A to ourselves. The ARCTIC FOX needs no icon.
ManlyRash on September 4, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Argh, I screwed up the quote!
Hey, fellow HotHeads, this headline on Drudge is harshing my Palin Buzz:
What do you make of that? $8M/130K = average of $61.54 per donor, although there are probably some big-money donors in there balancing out the $5s and $10s from the college students’ allowances.
Are these people who were on the fence, saw Our Sarah’s speech, and said, “She’s not offering me anything, I’ll go with Obama”? Or are they Obamafans who saw the speech and are now terrified that The Big O won’t be coasting to victory, after all? (That would be my preferred scenario, but I can see the other one, too.)
Cheer me up here, quick, before I go curl up in the cellar next to our beloved blog proprietor!
(Speaking of whom: AllahP, where’s your tip jar? I owe you and Ed big time for all the hard work you’ve been doing.)
Mary in LA on September 4, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Chris Mathews just bashed oBambi on C-Span as being unable to cross the aisle and compromise in a country that currently has a system that is in need of compromise. He contrasted that with John McCain, the man who is known for reaching across the aisle and will.
This is coming from bambis thrill up the leg home boy. Man things are changing!!!!!!!!
eski502 on September 4, 2008 at 5:54 PM
That is correct. I saw HuffPo commenters begging each other to donate.
lodge on September 4, 2008 at 5:54 PM
I was teary-eyed last night after her speech. I was so happy that I have someone respectable to admire in politics as a woman and mother I could not help myself. It wasn’t what she was saying, it was what she’s doing merely by being there.
Anna on September 4, 2008 at 5:54 PM
It might be a few days before we really see the results in polls like Gallup. It took several days for Obama to get his bounce. Also McCain is going on tonight. It might be that picking Palin will inspire more people to watch him too. And that might help.
It will interesting to see what the polls say next Monday and Tuesday.
Terrye on September 4, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Superb – Markos likening Obama to Jesus…this proves that only leftists understand irony.
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/4/162029/0439/39/586772
Ares on September 4, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Neither is Kwame Kilpatrick, Detroit mayor, another big supporter.
BuckeyeSam on September 4, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Don’t call her The One. She is Sarah Palin, Governor and moose hunter,
Enoxo on September 4, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Poll taken AFTER THE SPEECH???
marklmail on September 4, 2008 at 5:55 PM
I’m not going to worry too much about polls, good or bad. the media is working for Zerobama, don’t forget that…
These people have gone through hell to tear down our nominees and we just better keep fighting whether we’re down by 10 or up by 10.. Fight On!
El_Terrible on September 4, 2008 at 5:56 PM
The only polls that really count are the donations and the votes in November.
jerseyman on September 4, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Anna:
I think that is why so many African Americans are voting for Obama.
Terrye on September 4, 2008 at 5:56 PM
They were people who were scared- because if you read the rest of the Drudge headlines you learn that McCain’s camp hasn’t even been able to count the numbers of support from last night. Its to bad he has to go to public financing.
Dems are scared, and donating. And if I’m not mistaken that average amount is high for Obama- which means its the richies donating not the normal folks.
eski502 on September 4, 2008 at 5:56 PM
none yet.
eski502 on September 4, 2008 at 5:57 PM
If McCain loses, there will be no 2012.
Palin euphoria aside, we’ve got an election to win. This one REALLY matters.
Damiano on September 4, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Allah, you’re scaring me… how the hell do you find this crap: http://obeygiant.com/post/obama ?
lionheart on September 4, 2008 at 5:57 PM
The OneThe RIGHT One.
And she’s hunting for some oBambi!!!
eski502 on September 4, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Take a deep breath.
It’s one poll.
We’re at the *beginning* of the campaign, not the end, and there’s a long way to go.
ClintACK on September 4, 2008 at 5:59 PM
um, google image search?
eski502 on September 4, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Mary in LA on September 4, 2008 at 5:54 PM
It’s the Obamamaniacs freaking out, throwing good money after bad.
Disturb the Universe on September 4, 2008 at 6:00 PM
So, apparenlty bambi will admit the surge worked on O’Reilly tonight.
eski502 on September 4, 2008 at 6:01 PM
That is a superior piece!
Spirit of 1776 on September 4, 2008 at 6:01 PM
As long as you don’t think she’s going to cause sea levels to go down and the planet to heal… and as long as you didn’t see a light come down and reveal her as “The One”, etc. Then you’re okay!
RightWinged on September 4, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Guys, I think AllahPundit makes a great point. AP is approaching this with the right idea. Keep your expectations at a medium level, don’t deify Palin, and just wait as the campaign rolls on. It’s great to get caught up in the rapture of things, but y’need to remember that we need to spend our energy on the campaign trail instead of in stadiums, worshipping the big ZERO.
So, let’s temper our enthusiasm, but do everything we can tangibly in this world to kick ass for Senator McCain and Governor Palin.
Sakaki on September 4, 2008 at 6:02 PM
SARAHMENTUM, baby !!!
Always Right on September 4, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Obama is finding out what the moose feels like.
Cicero43 on September 4, 2008 at 6:03 PM
What is the over/under on when the ‘wailing and gnashing of teeth’ starts because ‘The One’ has been defiled by the real world?
silverfox on September 4, 2008 at 6:03 PM
Thank you Nick J. for the article!
Tony737 on September 4, 2008 at 6:03 PM
It’s been a while, but. . .
AP is SO in the tank for the ‘cuda
Wind Rider on September 4, 2008 at 6:04 PM
I just got back from picking up my little guys from school and heard this on the car radio.
I let out a great big “Woo Hoo” in the parking lot of the school.
I also heard that the poll was taken before the ‘Cuda speech.
Wait for the new numbers come in in a few days time.
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on September 4, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Oh come on now Eeyore.
“You never backed away from anything in your life! Now fight! Fight! Fiiiiight!”
ElectricPhase on September 4, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Right now Obama is beginning to realize he chose the wrong Veep. He has a liberal Quayle.
right2bright on September 4, 2008 at 6:05 PM
The jury is still out.
TheSitRep on September 4, 2008 at 6:05 PM
I said respectable! Unless you were referring to the woman and mother part… maybe I phrased that wrong. I was trying to imply that I’m a bit more prone to crying than say, a man, or a woman without kids (I never cried before I had kids). I probably missed a comma in there. Hard to type while eating soup.
Anna on September 4, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Okay, someone with skills has to put a rack on Obama…
right2bright on September 4, 2008 at 6:06 PM
And yeah, RightWinged, I firmly believe that Sarah, while very good-looking and appealing, remains a mere mortal like the rest of us small-town folk.
Anna on September 4, 2008 at 6:07 PM
The fund raising is of little concern to me. Did you see the frantic, desperate email that his campaign sent out to his email list (begotten from his text message farce)?
Here is a link: http://gretawire.foxnews.com/2008/09/04/email-reaction-from-sen-obama-campaign-to-gov-palin-speech/
Yeah, he can drum up cash from alarmist morons… for now. Hillary did the same as her ship sank and she ended up bankrupt.
Damiano on September 4, 2008 at 6:09 PM
I’m a guy and I felt that way, I was so proud of our party to place someone like this on the ticket. No offense to Dole, Bush, and others, but we don’t need a worn tire that has been retreaded. McCain barely makes it, and he may not have even made it with any of the “same old white men”.
right2bright on September 4, 2008 at 6:10 PM
I read that in a whole different way…I’m gonna have nightmares.
ElectricPhase on September 4, 2008 at 6:11 PM
First post in a Allahpundit thread. Thats what I call guts!!
Hey, where is the thread talking about the MSM going after Sarah Conner’s… opps I mean Sarah Palin’s church affiliations. We havent had a religious thread in a while.
AverageJoe on September 4, 2008 at 6:11 PM
Me too! I was wondering why they’d want to add extra boobs to the boob himself.
Anna on September 4, 2008 at 6:12 PM
OMG! MCCAIN IS GOING TO WIN!
Dave Rywall on September 4, 2008 at 6:12 PM
What an optimistic statement. Allah must be ill. Staying up too late?
bnelson44 on September 4, 2008 at 6:12 PM
More and more I think that Obama is going to fade badly because he peaked way to early.
In truth, the longer primary season hurt Obama for the general election. He was a relative unknown who used good planning and wins in all the caucus states to build up an insurmountable delegate lead that allowed him to eliminate Hillary without anyone really taking a close look at who he really was. There was a reason Hillary stated the comeback, and it wasn’t just that Obama plays poorly in the Rust Belt.
In truth, Obama works best if he’s not vetted, which is part of why we see very few personal stories about him from the Drive-by-Media. They already know that the better people know The Chosen One, the more likely they are to vote against him.
The problem is that it leaves him very open to exactly the kind of attack that Gov. Sarah Palin is able to dish out freely. Sarah Palin is not going to attack him on race, and trying to make her attack seem racist will only backfire. There is a reason that the MSM has gone so ape over her, she’s poison to Obama, especially if she can win the hearts of conservatives and the GOP base (which she has). It then becomes a battle over conservative democrats and independents. Obama has always poll poorly with both groups and is likely to fade fast as these groups now have a dynamic speaker with real credentials to compare against.
I think that’s why we see the 12% drop in the enthusiasm of Obama’s supporters while McCAin gets a 10% increase. The bloom and the shiny are gone and more and more people realize that the Obama is a empty suit.
Of course, there still will be the attempt to link McCain with Bush (which is what my very liberal father is counting on) but the MSM has already realized that while the story plays well on HuffPo, Daily KOS and DU, that dog just doesn’t hunt in middle america who have heard too many tales of how McCain bucked Bush and the GOP.
I don’t like McCain’s positions on many things, but his selection of Palin definitely changed the game. If this helps him lock in Ohio, and makes him competitive in Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, (especially if he can win the last 2) the election won’t be close even if Obama manages to landslide NY and CA.
mvargus on September 4, 2008 at 6:13 PM
I keep seeing this statistics and realizing I don’t have much context for them. And I’m too lazy to go looking.
Would you mind, at least once in a while, tossing out comparisons to where Kerry/Bush were at the same point in 2004?
Cheers.
Professor Blather on September 4, 2008 at 6:15 PM
They have to report all the funds raised, they don’t have to say which day they actually received it. They don’t have to report the exact day they received it. They did that awhile ago to make it look like they had a big take when running against Hillary.
So they held back some gifts to undercut the Republican convention.
Good strategy because people like Drudge fall for these gimmicks every time.
Look Matt, here is a shiny object…
right2bright on September 4, 2008 at 6:16 PM
considering the speed that the Obama campaign has been pouring through money them making $8 mil in a day means little to me. Obama already announced before his own convention that he had to pull his ads from 7 states. The attached list included VA and FL. From what I hear, he has now given up on FL pretty much completely as internal polling suggests that the retirees down there just refuse to warm to him. If he also gives up on VA, he’s going to make the entire campaign hinge on holding the Rust Belt, and several of those states are ones where Hillary crushed him in the primaries.
mvargus on September 4, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Right_of_Attila on September 4, 2008 at 6:20 PM
Here’s some advice for Mr. Kaus: Do not refer to Trig Palin as a prop. It is beneath you and it makes people very very angry.
Blake on September 4, 2008 at 6:22 PM
I’m a pessimistic, cynical guy at heart myself, but I at least want to believe that McCain / Palin are going to pull this one off.
But I have my own Modest Proposal, and I want all of you Hotheads here at Hot Air to join me on this.
Allah, listen up, it concerns you.
If McCain wins? I want you, Allah, to officially change your name to “EeyorePundit”. Just for ONE day. As a show of good-natured humorous poking fun at yourself for thankfully being proven wrong.
Deal?
Join with me here, my brothers and sisters.
Vyce on September 4, 2008 at 6:23 PM
1st creepy poster: it did, a week ago…
Sarah McCain
Limerick on September 4, 2008 at 6:25 PM
A CBS poll, trust not.
/Yoda
SouthernGent on September 4, 2008 at 6:27 PM
A virtual dead heat (Bush up in some polls by 1 or 2%)…Kerry began losing grounds when the debates started.
Kerry-Bush Comparison:
This was the only poll showing Bush ahead, the rest had them dead heat tied after the convention.
Zogby had Kerry 47% to Bush 43%.
Zogby 2004
right2bright on September 4, 2008 at 6:28 PM
It’s 1988 all over again, baby!!!
Obama = Dukakis
rockmom on September 4, 2008 at 6:32 PM
I like it, Vyce, if AP is willing to go along with it.
I was serious about the HotAir tip jar. It seems to me that AP, Ed, and others have been diligently flying about all this time, gathering the honey, while the rest of us grubs in the hive eagerly drink it down and then sit back expectantly for more! :-)
Mary in LA on September 4, 2008 at 6:33 PM
Your wish is my command:
http://i494.photobucket.com/albums/rr310/damiano777/obamamoose.jpg
Also, for your fund raising entertainment:
http://i494.photobucket.com/albums/rr310/damiano777/GeorgeHusseinOnyangoObama.jpg
Damiano on September 4, 2008 at 6:33 PM
Guys, Sarah’s magic definitely worked.
But keep in mind that Libs are scared of her, and are now realizing that they could lose this Election. In fact, the bucket of Arctic-cold water has chilled them so, that they gave Obama contributions to the sum of $10 million hours after Sarah’s speech.
The Libs HATE her. And they’re not going quietly. They will scorch-earth if they have to. Be warned.
newton on September 4, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Oh please… curb the enthusiasm, dial it back down to something more appropriate, like 3…
The election is a “national race” in name only. It’s really 50 individual WTA races, just ask “I got the most votes of any person who has run for the office” Al Gore.
We’re only Ohio away from President Obama…
Behold and weep tears of joy for Michelle’s children…
elgeneralisimo on September 4, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Why not? Between Jesse Jackson, Michelle ma’bell and what Palin did to him he can’t have any balls left.
Oldnuke on September 4, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Heh heh heh…yes. Suck on it, canuck. Suck it long. Suck it hard. And keep sucking ’till AMERICAN election day.
ManlyRash on September 4, 2008 at 6:41 PM
McCain just has to put in a workmanlike performance- no greatness needed.
A solid speech is so good because it just ratchets up the idea that this is a referendum on BO.
McCain can paint himself as the stable alternative and finish him off in the debates.
jjshaka on September 4, 2008 at 6:42 PM
Yes. Poor old Joe. He keeps hearing a bus revving in the background…
jaleach on September 4, 2008 at 6:42 PM
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »