Zogby: Palin may have neutralized Obama’s convention bounce
posted at 9:47 pm on August 30, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The euphoria has finally worn off, leaving a hitherto pessimistic blogger in full-blown panic mode over a complete wild card being slapped onto the table. Tossed about in a roiling sea of heart-ache, he reaches for the thinnest, weakest plank of hope within his grasp: A Zogby poll.
Has it come to this, my friends? Convincing ourselves that everything’s going to be okay with data harvested by a guy who blew the California primary by 23 points?
With this I bid my last shred of credibility farewell.
Republican John McCain’s surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate – some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama’s historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination – has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows…
The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties – Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama’s Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain’s increases to 92%…
Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit – as 87% said it would help, and just 3% said it would hurt.
Asking if Palin helps or hurts the ticket seems like a reasonable proxy for asking whether you’re more or less likely to vote for it, in which case these numbers don’t square with Gallup’s. The margin there was only +7 overall and +9 among women. I don’t know about those GOP numbers, either. The phenomenon of Palinmania means they’re not wholly out of the realm of possibility, but … only three percent think she’ll hurt the ticket with her resume as thin as it is? I know we’re cocooning to some extent over the past 36 hours, but man, that’s some extent.
Exit question: Acknowledging that hard drugs are illegal and therefore shouldn’t be used, couldn’t one make a moral claim that using them while watching the vice-presidential debate to avert a nervous breakdown is better on balance for society?
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Sweet!
flyawaybird on August 30, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Read it and weep.
Borislav on August 30, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Zogby? Grab it and run like hell.
I’m right behind you.
Repeat after me: Sarah, Sarah, Sarah….
SteveMG on August 30, 2008 at 9:52 PM
McOwn/Palin ‘08.
OBurnout/Biden is toast.
You sir have been McOwned.
BKennedy on August 30, 2008 at 9:52 PM
You’re going to need it.
Use the “necessity defense” when they arrest you.
SteveMG on August 30, 2008 at 9:53 PM
J-Mac is crazy…like a fox.
jgapinoy on August 30, 2008 at 9:53 PM
If you check the previous poll, from Aug 24, Zogby had it Obama 46, McCain 44, so it’s not like those polls are out of whack from others.
Gallup is behind, as it did not show the Obama bounce from the convention for 2 days.
If McCain isn’t even or ahead by the debates, though, it’s gonna be a long season.
lorien1973 on August 30, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Scotch will suffice…in sufficent quantity.
ManlyRash on August 30, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Go ahead and teleologically suspend the crap out of the ethical on that one.
Weight of Glory on August 30, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Strange numbers for a suicidal pick.
Purple Fury on August 30, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Again, Obama/Biden got played by Johnny Mac, a man they claimed was too old. They got Played. To which, I say, HA!
:)
mjk on August 30, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Excuse me, near-suicidal.
Purple Fury on August 30, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Correct me if I’m wrong but I think Zogby leans to the left also…I recall many of my fellow conservatives during the 2004 election always knocking his results because most of the time they trended to Kerry!!
This is good news regardless!
Albertanator on August 30, 2008 at 9:55 PM
I tend to ignore polls unless they all start pointing in some direction. I’ll wait for more.
DanStark on August 30, 2008 at 9:56 PM
McCain seems to be rubbing off on you Allahpundit.
/you were wrong
//it’s okay
///we still adore you
carbon_footprint on August 30, 2008 at 9:56 PM
Yeah, in the opposite direction!
SouthernGent on August 30, 2008 at 9:56 PM
When Zogby has a Republican ahead, you know the Republican is ahead.
Red Cloud on August 30, 2008 at 9:57 PM
She can bring home the bacon,
fry it up in the pan…
Ok, I may be showing my age here.
macblanegirl on August 30, 2008 at 9:57 PM
You know what we need? A montage!!! Call up sly stalone and lets cut a youtube viral video stat…
ninjapirate on August 30, 2008 at 9:57 PM
Her neutralizing effect is awesome to behold!!
hisfrogness on August 30, 2008 at 9:58 PM
“Suicidal pick,” indeed.
Krauthammer is the next person who could benefit from the wonderful effects of a stiff drink. Or two.
wise_man on August 30, 2008 at 9:58 PM
SARAH!
This news made me happy enough to donate even as I was securing my papers for the storm.
sven10077 on August 30, 2008 at 9:58 PM
And make you never forget you’re a man!
carbon_footprint on August 30, 2008 at 9:58 PM
pelosi was on a digg/cnn video feed during the convention where she was asked about legalizing drugs. She said just give the dems a few more years and they will be able to try and do that but it wouldnt be any time soon.
Remaking America.
As for the Polls the RNC hasnt even had its convention. The Palin effect will take at least a week to kick in. Right now its all buzz but even Obama mania took time to take off.
Obama is the old news we have the new news.
William Amos on August 30, 2008 at 9:58 PM
Gov. Palin will wipe the walls with Biden. Relax.
SWLiP on August 30, 2008 at 9:58 PM
Hey, what’s not to like about interactive online polls?
Just ask President Paul.
JammieWearingFool on August 30, 2008 at 9:59 PM
Allah:
I wouldn’t trust Zogby with counting the fingers on his hand.
however stop stressing bro.
And out of curiosity why does the experience question damage Palin but not Obama?
elduende on August 30, 2008 at 9:59 PM
Zogby gets discredited by Daily Kos in 5, 4, 3,
carbon_footprint on August 30, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Save the montage video for if/after she kicks Biden’s ass in the debates… before hand might look kind of bad…
ninjapirate on August 30, 2008 at 10:00 PM
There there Allah.
It’s not so bad.
McCain has salvaged at least three votes in my family that he had otherwise lost.
My informal polls tell me that she is going over very well in fly-over country the more we learn about her. Not just w’GOPers either.
She’s much better than her critics are making her out.
They will later regret underestimating her.
edgehead on August 30, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Palin gets smeared as badly as Quayle did.
Who won in 1988?
Karl on August 30, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Rasmussen has Obama up by 4, Gallup up by 8 and Zogby has McCain up by 2. So who the hell knows what the true numbers are? I remember after Obama’s big European trip he went from up 9 to a tie in a week. Seems to me that we just keep covering the same territory over and over.
I have no idea how Palin will do in the debate, but she does not seem to have a problem with public appearances and public speaking. She interviews pretty well. And Biden can be such a blow hard, maybe the Dems should be doing some panicking of their own. Joe is not exactly predictable.
Terrye on August 30, 2008 at 10:01 PM
She’s energized he base like none other. That will vastly outweigh the concerns. And hey, if not, she’ll be ready for 2012 (maybe).
It's Vintage, Duh on August 30, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Exactly. I have a great, great feeling that Gov. Palin is going to kick Biden to the curb (as in American History X) just like I have been predicting JSMc is going to kick Barry!
carbon_footprint on August 30, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Looks like you picked the wrong week to give up sniffing glue…
</Airplane!>
sulla on August 30, 2008 at 10:02 PM
“Exit question: Acknowledging that hard drugs are illegal and therefore shouldn’t be used, couldn’t one make a moral claim that using them while watching the vice-presidential debate to avert a nervous breakdown is better on balance for society?”
AP, wtf? the veep debate is in October. saracuda will have had two months of being on the trail [and proly ENJOYING IT] whilst the over/under on greasy joe huge gaffes by then is what, 4?
/why r we even keeping alive this meme that the woman has never faced hostile questioning before, or worsre, presume she’ll sutomatically fail at it?
Buckaroo on August 30, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Zogby is unreliable, but usually in the sense that it shows Democrats doing better than they actually are. It’s like a Daily Kos poll.
amerpundit on August 30, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Yay! Someone else remembers that. I think it’s fitting for our VP to be, because she has it all.
macblanegirl on August 30, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Exit answer; Just smoke the ganja Allah. You gotta figure if she blows it, which is unlikely, but if she does Obambam will push legislation to make it a misdemeanor at worst and free for all more than likely.
Griz on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
So Biden knocks her around a bit. By that time McCain will have slaughtered Obama twice and afterward he will do it a third time, and the election will be over. Why are people so worried about this?
rockmom on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
I am going to take all the good news I can get because I am sure the drive-bys are going to make sure the good news is as scarce as they can make it.
HawaiiLwyr on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
“When Zogby has a Republican ahead, you know the Republican is ahead”
AMEN!
:-)
Buckaroo on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
From what I can tell Gallup is from the 24th. Zogby was today and Rasmussen is from today.
Zogby likes to oversample younger voters and non voters. Rasmussen likes to rely on likely voters.
It seems Palin may have touch a cord with younger voters. That is the break down I want to see by age.
William Amos on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
I will back her Pac to the 9s in the event of a defeat…
The Russians sold us Alaska because they knew one day Sarah Palin’d have a problem with Tyrrany.
sven10077 on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
I think this is the first time I’ve ever disagreed with Charles Krauthammer.
Star20 on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
Steady, Allah; it’s only politics. We’ll let the hurricane pass, the convention make the nominations official, then look at the polls.
Tomorrow, after church, several of us are getting together to pop some caps, sight the deer rifles in the do some lamb shish kabobs.
Zorro on August 30, 2008 at 10:05 PM
Said it before I could. Bastard.
ManlyRash on August 30, 2008 at 10:06 PM
Nice…but let’s wait and see what Rasmussen says before we get too excited.
keepinitreal on August 30, 2008 at 10:06 PM
Don’t forget. Last week when Zogby first had McCain ahead by 5 points, both Gallup and Rasmussen later came out showed McCain ahead also (CNN had them tied). Maybe Zogby isn’t that far off?
BJ on August 30, 2008 at 10:06 PM
Let me elaborate on why I think that Gov. Palin is going to wipe the walls with Biden in the VP debate. I’m a litigator, and have spent a fair amount of time watching people argue in court. I think that I have learned how to judge advocacy skills based on a few second of hearing someone speak. Gov. Palin has advocacy skills in spades. She speaks clearly, plainly, with the right amount of inflection and with economy of language. She is obviously very bright, and knows her stuff.
She is gonna KILL Biden.
SWLiP on August 30, 2008 at 10:07 PM
SARAH’CUDA
ManlyRash on August 30, 2008 at 10:07 PM
C’mon, lighten up a bit. There’s no reason to toss out euphoria and start sinking into dark negativity. Let the whole thing absorb into the public consciousness for awhile. At least a couple of weeks. Look at it this way, sure the Zogby polls are unreliable but when they include Republican candidates vs. Dems they are reliably anti-Republican. A push of any size toward McCain is very positive.
If you look at the so-called ‘big’ news reported all over that Obama ‘held’ his 8-point lead in the Gallup poll, a rolling poll that included Obama’s commandments from Mount Olympus and one evening after the Palin announcement you’ve got to be feeling pretty good. Why? Because that poll shows a dead stop of Obama’s momentum from the previous rolling poll, ending the day before the speech that showed the same number. In effect, the rolling data showed continued momentum and then the last day a rollback of that momentum.
So lighten up, quit reaching for the bottle or hard drugs (unless you’re just celebrating the holiday weekend) and have fun with this run.
JonPrichard on August 30, 2008 at 10:07 PM
Picture Joe Biden in a moose costume.
I find it rather easy, actually.
profitsbeard on August 30, 2008 at 10:08 PM
I’m starting to worry that Allah isn’t going to last the week.
bnelson44 on August 30, 2008 at 10:08 PM
Hmm
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Aug 30
Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men.
William Amos on August 30, 2008 at 10:08 PM
Dear AllahPundit: I apologize if this is inappropriate, especially for a newbie, but I suggest that instead of sedation, you take a healthy dose of the answer to the following questions:
What makes a King out of a slave?
What makes the flag on the mast to wave?
What makes the elephant charge his tusk,
in the misty mist or the dusky dusk?
What makes the muskrat guard his musk?
What makes the sphinx the seventh wonder?
What makes the dawn come up like thunder?
What makes the Hottentot so hot?
What puts the “ape” in apricot?
Loxodonta on August 30, 2008 at 10:09 PM
Truth be told, the more pleasant thought is his hair-plugged head mounted over the fireplace. *sigh* Yeah, yeah, I know. I take it back, lest I sound like a Kos Kid.
ManlyRash on August 30, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Interesting observation. I do hope that Snob and Smug slip up at some point. It wont happen when they are on prompter, or being interviewed by a friendly “journalist” such as Olbermann. So that leaves the town hall debates and Biden & Palin.
By the time that eventually gets here, Palin will have been exposed to weeks and weeks of public savagery of herself, every single thing she ever did or said in the past and possible humiliation of her family. By democrats and “journalists.” I wish her the best and hopes that she can keep from slipping herself. Not because she is weak, but because of what I suspect is going to happen.
wise_man on August 30, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Hmmmm….
bnelson44 on August 30, 2008 at 10:12 PM
After Obama takes his drumming come Sept. he may take to the drink.
35 years from now he’ll be the ol’ senate drunk, ala Teddy.
TheSitRep on August 30, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Guy’s and gal’s….
Just wait until the debate between Plain and Biden.
When Palin is done handing Biden his hair plugs, then you can all start reading tea leaves and calling the psychic friends network.
Everyone, until then, just calm you collective asses down.
Palin!
I am as excited as y’all.
RobertInAustin on August 30, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Ok, Hillary got 18 million votes. What was the break down of those votes? I’ll write off the die hard abortionists. But a significant number of Hillary voters are more commonly known as Reagan Democrats and they have far more in common with hunter/fisher Palin than with the effete Obama. Palin will pull in the blue collar, union voter. Obama is toast.
DerKrieger on August 30, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Well put. And apropos.
ManlyRash on August 30, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Me too. Feels kind of weird, doesn’t it?
IrishGirl17 on August 30, 2008 at 10:13 PM
This will cheer you up Allah
from rasmussen
Indicative of the low opinion most voters have of Congress were the findings in another survey earlier this week of members of the leadership’s own party. Just 37% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while 51% have an unfavorable view of her. One-quarter (25%) of Democrats rate their view of the San Francisco Democrat as Very Favorable, but 14% see her in a Very Unfavorable light.
The news is even worse for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who is viewed favorably by 22% of Democrats and unfavorably by 41%. Six percent (6%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable
William Amos on August 30, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Nice. Sarah could imagine Biden as Bullwinkle complete with the voice – and that would help keep things in the right frame of mind as to how to not let mister “I have a higher IQ than you” bully her.
wise_man on August 30, 2008 at 10:15 PM
HA!
funky chicken on August 30, 2008 at 10:16 PM
Yes, it does. Kind of a WTF sort of moment. Krauthammer is ordinarily good and perhaps this is brain fart that will pass. Unless, of course, he is right.
In which case, Allah and I will be doing speedballs.
ManlyRash on August 30, 2008 at 10:16 PM
Yep! Polls on average give dems 6-8 points.
TheSitRep on August 30, 2008 at 10:16 PM
The foregoing quote is from an Instapundit reader. Glenn closes his post as follows:
Terrie on August 30, 2008 at 10:16 PM
I always wonder about those polls. Do they ask things like how likely were you to vote for Sen. McCain before and how likely are you to vote for him now? I had already decided to vote for him and many other Republicans had as well, but some were doing so grudgingly. Now it sounds like many of the grudging folks are more enthusiastically willing to support McCain. I’m not convinced that McCain needed to take such a big risk. He’s essentially rolling the dice on Gov. Palin standing up to the immense pressure she’ll be under as a relative unknown in her first national campaign. So far so good, but I think he was going to win with a safe pick. His campaign had done such a great job of pointing out what a totally unprepared person Sen. Obama was that I think Sen. McCain would have won narrowly with a more tame pick like Gov. Pawlenty.
Jill1066 on August 30, 2008 at 10:17 PM
He’s got mine now, and I have a friend who told me she, her husband, and five or so members of her extended family who were going to sit it out are now going to vote for Palin, er, McCain/Palin.
This pessimism from Allah, Krauthammer, and others is starting to drag me down, though, as are the despicable attacks on her last pregnancy from the kos knuckle-draggers. Ever the optimist, though, I consider the fact that she has energized the base, which helps, and neutralized the Messiah’s big speech. She’ll show everyone in the next couple months why she’s ready for this job…its a gamble, but if he can get the base plus some independents (which he is now), I think its worth it. Consider if he had picked Pawlenty…would anyone even be talking about it? No…McCain wouldn’t have collected millions in donations (including from first-timers like me), and the base would be ho-hum about it from now until November. Would he have moved people like me from staying home to going in? I doubt it. Same with Romney, plus you have to consider the evangelical problem he would’ve had (not that it would’ve been right, obviously), though I would’ve liked that pick. Liebs/Ridge? Disasters. Loved by moderates and the lib media, but the base would’ve stayed home big-time.
I’m trying to be realistic about it, but honestly I think its worth it…
changer1701 on August 30, 2008 at 10:17 PM
Yep. Send Todd out to have a beer with the guys at the union halls in PA. PA goes to McCain/Palin.
funky chicken on August 30, 2008 at 10:17 PM
True, Zogby isn’t worth spit. RCP is always pretty solid though. Their average has Obama ahead by 3.9%.
That’s it. A whopping six point convention swing (at most). The thirty eight million people watched Obama’s acceptance speech obviously weren’t terribly impressed.
It’s the Obama campaign that should be panicking. McCain must feel like Tom Coughlin going into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLII.
Mike Honcho on August 30, 2008 at 10:17 PM
Allah, I have two things to tell you:
1. I checked, and you have Sarah’s permission. She didn’t try to pull a Bill Clinton, and neither should you. Just do it. But, if you do that, you may regret being too impaired to fully appreciate how thoroughly she impales Joe Biden. So, I recommend you save the RD until after the debate, with Plan B being that you can dive in during the debate if you begin to feel anxious.
2. Don’t trust any Zogby polling, ever. That said, forget the polls today. Wait a few weeks, after some interviews, stump speeches, and (with any luck) a prime time convention speech. Things will be moving our way, in a big way.
JudetheFossil on August 30, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Oh ye of little faith:
“Acknowledging that hard drugs are illegal and therefore shouldn’t be used, couldn’t one make a moral claim that using them while watching the vice-presidential debate to avert a nervous breakdown is better on balance for society?”
And miss each and every nuance while Palin hacks Biden apart?
GarandFan on August 30, 2008 at 10:18 PM
I’d just got done commenting in another forum that Steyn & Krauthammer are the two columnists I can never remember disagreeing with…
Purple Fury on August 30, 2008 at 10:18 PM
TheSitRep on August 30, 2008 at 10:12 PM
maybe ala Barney Frank?
elduende on August 30, 2008 at 10:19 PM
Amnesty will resolve this problem for the Dems. Wish we could get this message through to Mac and the WSJ types.
DerKrieger on August 30, 2008 at 10:20 PM
I don’t know about you guys, but I’m pumped up for Palin. For the first time, I’m feeling the inklings to actually go out and volunteer to back up my donations.
p0s3r on August 30, 2008 at 10:21 PM
I wouldn’t trust a Zobgy Poll if it hit me square in the face.
He and his brother’s past history of being in-the-tank for Democrats, plus their ties to Radical Palestinians and even Jihadis, plus Zogby’s famous “call” last election day, that Kerry was winning by something like 7 points, makes anything he does a complete and utter joke.
That said, I think that by Tuesday or so, we’ll see both Gallup and Rassmussen having McCain-Palin in a dead heat with the Obama Bi(n La)den ticket!
Dale in Atlanta on August 30, 2008 at 10:22 PM
The Republican party had to make a bold pick given the fact that they had no chance at winning without it. This is a year made for Democrats to win and if they don’t, I’m watching MSNBC the following day to watch heads explode.
V15J on August 30, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Wait a freaggin tick,that poll is only
for 50 states,I might be stupid here,
but where’s the other 7 states!
There not going to pull this one over
my eyes,piff ya,50 states!
Where’s the results form the other 7?
canopfor on August 30, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Btw, my wife is one of those disappointed Hillary supporters who hates Obama but couldn’t imagine herself voting for a Republican. She’s enthused about the Palin pick and now feels good about voting for McCain!
I suspect that there are many more like her out there.
SWLiP on August 30, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Define “hard drug”.
lionheart on August 30, 2008 at 10:25 PM
Bad news
Geraldo just said on Fox the Palin pick was “brilliant.”
CanadianGuy on August 30, 2008 at 10:25 PM
Thanks. Sometimes humor is the best treatment for worries.
Loxodonta on August 30, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Hey not even the future President of the US can force Sarah to not go her own way
William Amos on August 30, 2008 at 10:26 PM
AP told you all, didn’t we?
Er.. he.
SteveMG on August 30, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Oh noes! Wees is dooooooomd!!#@!!@#$!!!
Loxodonta on August 30, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. But, Geraldo calls it like he sees it. May not agree with him most of the time, but I do every now and then.
RobertInAustin on August 30, 2008 at 10:29 PM
Thanks,
Loxodonta on Aug 30,2008 at 10:26PM.
Loxodonta: Hehe,I thought I would try it with no humour
tags!
Some newbies might think,oh no,Liberals are as
bright as Canadians!haha:)
canopfor on August 30, 2008 at 10:29 PM
I hate to say it, but Charles Krauthammer is just plain WRONG.
rtsidedragon on August 30, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Palin’s thin resume is a feature, not a bug. What is Obama going to do, make lack of relevant experience a campaign issue? I can just hear it now, “We can’t afford to have an underexperienced, 40-something political neophyte one heartbeat away from the Oval Office. We need an underexperienced, 40-something political neophyte in the Oval Office!”
Xrlq on August 30, 2008 at 10:30 PM
I hate it even more to say that Geraldo is (gulp) RIGHT.
rtsidedragon on August 30, 2008 at 10:31 PM
Look, for the first time in my life, I was not going to vote because I do not trust McCain and feel he has screwed with me enough and I hate his position on immigration. I will, however, vote for McCain/Palin.
Blake on August 30, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Think of it like a broken clock. Twice a day it has to be right :)
Noelie on August 30, 2008 at 10:33 PM
I heard that too! I actually had to rewind the tivo to see if that is what he really said!!
I won’t let Gerry’s agreement steal my joy!
IrishGirl17 on August 30, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Geez, get a grip. Like sulla said here’s your solution .
capitano on August 30, 2008 at 10:35 PM
For those Hot/Air crew members,who need a laugh,I present!
Barack OBollywood:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA-451XMsuY
canopfor on August 30, 2008 at 10:36 PM
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