Rasmussen detects … a one-point bounce
posted at 12:00 pm on August 28, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll finally has some good news for Barack Obama. After the selection of Joe Biden, Michelle Obama’s profession of love for America, and an enthusiastic endorsement by Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama finally got a bounce. The bad news? It’s just one point:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%.
Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s update is the first to reflect the convention period–just over two-thirds of the interviews were completed after Michelle Obama’s speech on Monday night.
Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average–shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.
So far, this convention has been a bust for Obama, but that could change … slightly. Overnight polling by Rasmussen finds that three-quarters of Democrats say the convention has helped heal the divisions in the party. Hillary’s speech was seen as helpful to Obama by 84% of Democrats. Note, though, that the dissenters are not overlappers; the ones who think Hillary’s speech didn’t help are likely to be the fierce Obama partisans, while the Democrats who think the convention fell short on healing are likely to be Hillary supporters.
Over the next two days, Obama’s number may rise a point or two, but that still only puts him back to last’ week’s level of support. Meanwhile, as Rasmussen points out, McCain will own the spotlight for the next week, starting tomorrow with his announcement of running mate. With the convention hammering Obama’s lack of experience and judgment and McCain’s lifetime of service to the country, the doubts that have begun to form in the minds of voters about Obama will get strengthened. The GOP will probably have a more positive focus on themselves, in contrast to the dreary whining that has overtaken the Democratic convention for the second cycle in a row.
Time is running out for Obama’s explosion of support and second wind. If the convention fails to deliver a boost that puts him back in June territory, a collapse is almost inevitable.









Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Dead Cat Bounce
flyoverland on August 28, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Unity!
/sarc
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 28, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Zeus frowns upon this foolish fellow Rasmussen. Where is his virgin daughter or niece that Mighty Zeus can impregnate to show his deispleasure with this bringer of bad news.
Prepare the lightning bolts!
YellowDawg on August 28, 2008 at 12:04 PM
‘Splat’ I like the sound of that:-) Cute.
eaglesdontflock on August 28, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Which pundit do I remember saying if he didn’t get at least a 10 point bounce after the convention to tell him to quit measuring the curtains? I’d like to think it was Karl Rove (write it in stone) but I think it was take-it-with-a-grain-of-salt Dick Morris.
Marcus on August 28, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Honestly, this convention has sucked. The Clintons so far are the only memorable speakers. Everything else was bland and weak. They did a better job in 2004 (even though they lost, ha!).
…Then the columns, my god, hahaha, what were they thinking?
DanStark on August 28, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Maybe they ought to have some more cameramen arrested and intimidate a few more reporters. That ought to win the people over.
JammieWearingFool on August 28, 2008 at 12:08 PM
If Obama and the Dems message is so on target, so reflective of what every real American simply has to believe…all the wonderful Hope and Change stuff…why is Obama not enjoying a 15 or 20 point lead over that evil McCain and those damned GOP robots?
coldwarrior on August 28, 2008 at 12:09 PM
If Obama and the Dems message is so on target, so reflective of what every real American simply has to believe…all the wonderful Hope and Change stuff…why is Obama not enjoying a 15 or 20 point lead over that evil McCain and those damned GOP robots?
coldwarrior on August 28, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Meanwhile word on the McCain VP front is that next week McCain and the VP will go to Detroit Michigan to campaign.
Make of that what you will.
William Amos on August 28, 2008 at 12:09 PM
1 point is a modest bounce? I’d say its the same bounce a wet sock would make. Well you know those Dems, when life gives ya lemons they’ll make Lemonade, and if life gives them $h1t they’ll just lie lie lie.
Rbastid on August 28, 2008 at 12:11 PM
I think it’s too early to see a bounce or not. Wait till after the speech from the mount tonight. Over the weekend perhaps.
All of this, of course, depends on McCain not completely screwing up his VP pick. Which, as you know, is a very real possibility.
lorien1973 on August 28, 2008 at 12:11 PM
I agree with DanStark this convention has sucked. And here I sit with all this popcorn….
HawaiiLwyr on August 28, 2008 at 12:12 PM
As much as I want to see a politically neutered Obama ride off into the sunset, I’d give it a day or two after his Jesus At The Temple Speech to gauge things. Plus, I’m not entirely convinced the RNC won’t screw things up horribly on the other end, not to mention that we still haven’t dodged the Lieberman for Veep bullet.
We’re not out of the woods until November!
ErikTheRed on August 28, 2008 at 12:12 PM
The DNC will be in full panic mode by a week from tomorrow!
Star20 on August 28, 2008 at 12:12 PM
Hey, Ed, look at this:
http://www.whitehousemuseum.org/floor1/portrait-jfk.jpg
Then look at Drudge.
Marcus on August 28, 2008 at 12:12 PM
CHANGE!!
(1 + point )
skree on August 28, 2008 at 12:13 PM
Thats not a bounce…..it’s a splat!
grapeknutz on August 28, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Marcus,
He IS the Second Coming!
Star20 on August 28, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Which means it is probably Romney. But the news next week won’t be about the Republicans, it will be about the hurricanes. . . that’s right, there are TWO now.
But who cares? We have a convention to celebrate.
ThackerAgency on August 28, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Maybe he will get a Britney bounce after tonight:
Brat on August 28, 2008 at 12:17 PM
…………… $!
Seven Percent Solution on August 28, 2008 at 12:18 PM
I’ve seen more bounce after dropping a 45 pound Olympic plate at the gym.
Obama better fly out of the gate during his speech tonight or he is in some serious trouble; another load of his changey hopey and people are going to drop away even more than they are now.
This is substance time and there isn’t anything there.
Bishop on August 28, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Maybe he should throw himself under the bus… couldn’t hurt the #s.
Mr_Magoo on August 28, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Why doesn’t he just raise his arms to the storms of Gustav and calm the waves?
flyoverland on August 28, 2008 at 12:20 PM
I’m pretty certain Papa Barack (President-for-Life) will pick up 10 points after his show tonight.
People will react to the high-flown babble, especially after the MSM elevates it to the level of Moses’s tablets.
After all, those “leaders” of the past Obama emulates won elections, too. Just don’t ask how.
MrScribbler on August 28, 2008 at 12:21 PM
@Ed
I hope like hell you’re right! I don’t want to see the GOP put on a pantywaist display like the Obama camp.
coldshot on August 28, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Well then, $20+ million well spent Dems. Nice job.
Waterboy on August 28, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Bubba: “Hillary is supporting Obama. That makes 2 of us.”
Well, that’s 2 votes…
Mr_Magoo on August 28, 2008 at 12:21 PM
That ain’t a bounce, it is a skip.
Elizabetty on August 28, 2008 at 12:22 PM
I knew it was just a matter of time before his numbers would soar…one point, and he will get 2 or 3 after tonight…then McCain will get his bounce from the VP pick, and we are back to even steven.
That sucks for Obama, he should be up by 8 points.
right2bright on August 28, 2008 at 12:22 PM
All Hail Caesar Obamacus!
thedudesblog on August 28, 2008 at 12:23 PM
There’s going to be a bigger bounce after his speech tonight. I’d like to hope he’d perform poorly, but that’s not going to happen.
And between the hurricanes in the gulf and the naturally biased media coverage (Ron Paul Revolution!!!!!), I’d say we still have a long way to go.
BadgerHawk on August 28, 2008 at 12:25 PM
I expect some bounce after tonight’s Hopeychange Spectacular. Especially if the costumes are cool and they have pyrotechnics and stuff.
Gilda on August 28, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Oh Man!
Good catch though!
upinak on August 28, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Sad, but true. And since the candidate has been chosen (just not announced yet), I sure hope McCain made a wise decision. Still, it is enjoyable to witness a “splat” and not a bounce for the obamessiah. We have to find pleasure in whatever we can this election season.
Dariaanne on August 28, 2008 at 12:28 PM
No kidding. It’s been 3+ days of Dems acting like the US is Zimbabwe or Central African Republic.
I wonder how they’ll work in the latest 3+% economic growth reported for the last quarter today? Oh wait, it doesn’t matter because there is a single mom in Kalamazoo, Michigan who can’t go to bingo because of rising fuel costs. What the hell is wrong with these people.
Every single EU country plus almost every other country on the planet would KILL for a 5% unemployment rate.
I agree, the Republican convention should and better focus on the overwhelmingly positive aspects of the country including the ecomony. I think folks are ready to hear something different about the economy besides has supposedly shitty it is (according to CBS, etc). People respond to positive thinking. Let the media crow on and on about the “…yes, but” until they’re blue in the face.
Waterboy on August 28, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Hopenchangen Weltkaiser
Rule of thumb, twink pro-agenda.
1% follow the bouncing ball.
maverick muse on August 28, 2008 at 12:28 PM
I find this, to be much more interesting and telling:
Obama Still Lags McCain as Leader, Commander in Chief
August 28, 2008
John McCain has an edge over Barack Obama in the public’s eyes as a strong and decisive leader, and while 80% of Americans say McCain is able to handle the job of commander in chief, only 53% say this about Obama.
–Gallup
franksalterego on August 28, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Not good for the One. But great for America
ConservativePartyNow on August 28, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Something tells me that if (God forbid) this storm does hit New Orleans, Bobby Jindal will demonstrate real, solid leadership, unlike his predecessor. Ray Nagin is another story, though apparently his abject incompetence during Katrina was overlooked by the voters (most of whom were probably suffering from media-induced BDS and therefore, neglected to hold the Mayor in contempt for abdicating his duties to his city).
Dariaanne on August 28, 2008 at 12:33 PM
Where did you see this information?
dmarie on August 28, 2008 at 12:34 PM
From your mouth to God’s ears Ed!
elduende on August 28, 2008 at 12:35 PM
Joe Biden’s successful dump.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 28, 2008 at 12:36 PM
When the numbers merely vibrate a little within the margin of error – that ain’t no bounce – that’s noise.
CK MacLeod on August 28, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Since it’s within the margin of error I might consider this a leveling off from a freefall,instead of a bounce. Ask pilots that have been there: when the engines quit and gravity takes control there is usually that brief time when it looks like things might level out and there is some hope. Frequently that period immediately preceeds a death spiral.
Yoop on August 28, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Who do you think created Gustav at just the right time???
HawaiiLwyr on August 28, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Not to worry, several MSM “journalists” are already lining up to jump out of the plane to save weight and The One. God bless ‘em.
Waterboy on August 28, 2008 at 12:40 PM
This is what happens when Hollywood gets involved in politics. This whole things reeks of a Hollywood movie set, complete with detachment from reality.
Clearly, the left coasters can’t separate fiction from fact and get their scripts confused with the real world. I think we’ve put a finger on their frustration–they play all these wonderful parts where the screenwriters make them look good and gives them their outcome and then the Republicans rain on their parade with what is.
eaglesdontflock on August 28, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Slightly off thread, but here goes. I live in Louisiana and this morning on the radio they were announcing evacuation plans for New Orleans. People actually called in and asked who (FEMA or Red Cross) was going to pay for their gasoline to evacuate and who was going to pay for their hotel rooms. Can you believe this mentality? I plan to take care of myself, don’t need taxpayers money to get out of the way of a hurricane.
hilchar on August 28, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Republicans should focus on the fact that despite what anyone tries to say, the USA is still the greatest place to live. I recently read something written by Jay Leno (who is no Bush fan) that basically said how whiny we have become and it is due in large part to the press and their negative spin on everything. Focus on the positive and tell us what you’re going to do to fix the negative.
thevastlane on August 28, 2008 at 12:42 PM
After listening to so many Democratic BS speeches this week, I needed something to cleanse the palate. So I went to YouTube and listened to a real speech.
backwoods conservative on August 28, 2008 at 12:43 PM
Are parachutes provided, or are we talking angel’s wings?
‘A Wing and a Prayer’ comes to mind… I’m not sure why, yet.
Yoop on August 28, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Obama is so stupid, he thinks Messiahs become President. haha
faraway on August 28, 2008 at 12:47 PM
I know what you mean. In the week or so leading up to Wilma in 2005, Jeb Bush and other public officials were constantly holding press conferences, urging people to prepare (i.e. stock up on water, put up hurricane shutters) and/or evacuate if told to do so. The very next day after the storm, people were lining up for water in a Deerfield Beach park near where I live in Boca. The DAY after! It never occurs to some people to take responsibility for their own lives. Publix and Winn-Dixie are everywhere; why didn’t any of them go out and get what they needed BEFORE the storm?
On the other hand, residents in my condo community were out and about immediately after Wilma tore through, cleaning up the areas around their units, washing their front doors, etc. I guess some people subscribe to the victim mentality while others do what needs to be done. But many in New Orleans take victimhood to a whole new level.
Dariaanne on August 28, 2008 at 12:50 PM
I am very concerned that the DNC/NAACP convention in Denver is creating expectation for a new bigger and better welfare state designed to re-distibute the wealth from producers to public hog trough sloppers.
The government can’t even fund medicare, much less a nationwide health system to include crack heads and illegal immigrants.
The government needs to get back to the notion of the “Little Red Hen”. Paying people to be drunk, useless, and stupid is not the key to hope for America, although it may represent hope for the terminally lazy wagon riders.
The truth is that the wagon pullers built this country, and they are the ones that will move it forward.
saiga on August 28, 2008 at 12:51 PM
You can thank the welfare state for that. It is now time for cold turkey and slap these trough sloppers back into the real world. It is truly what is best for them.
Never again should we pay to promote uselessness.
saiga on August 28, 2008 at 12:55 PM
The democrats spend billions to encourage victimhood. Ignorant and useless people are easier to control and lead by the nose with a check.
saiga on August 28, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Greatest movie line of all time (Animal House):
“Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son”
Waterboy on August 28, 2008 at 12:58 PM
After you factor in the error margin I’m sure he got nothing at all out of this two-bit theatrical extravaganza and all those sour old has been politicos that surrounded him.
rplat on August 28, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Looks like he’ll be coming out tonight in a beard and toga afterall.
Chuck Schick on August 28, 2008 at 1:13 PM
If only Leni Riefenstahl were here to document The Triumph of the Will redux
Was Germany a test run? Germans are good for crowd scenes
Will Obama Triumph? Some plastic bounces, some don’t
entagor on August 28, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Ever been to a wedding where the parents of groom/bride are divorced, both in attendance? Everyone is there, everyone makes nice, but all feel the tension in the air. That was this convention.
Doug on August 28, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Yeah, but in retrospect, can we all agree that we’ve been somewhat suckered by the Dems? I mean it made people tune in, etc. Chalk one up for the Dark Side. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Waterboy on August 28, 2008 at 1:27 PM
Just. Wow.
RushBaby on August 28, 2008 at 1:28 PM
Louisiana Hot Heads
Please keep posting news. This may just be the only place that people around the country will be able to get your info and perspective.
RushBaby on August 28, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Even a dead cat will bounce if you throw it hard enough.
mwdiver on August 28, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Republicans should focus on the fact that despite what anyone tries to say, the USA is still the greatest place to live. I recently read something written by Jay Leno (who is no Bush fan) that basically said how whiny we have become and it is due in large part to the press and their negative spin on everything. Focus on the positive and tell us what you’re going to do to fix the negative.
thevastlane on August 28, 2008 at 12:42 PM
Is this what you are talking about?
Jay Leno on President Bush (Surprising)
Jay Leno wrote this; it’s the Jay Leno we don’t often see….
As most of you know I am not a President Bush fan, nor have I ever been, but this is not about Bush, it is about us, as Americans, and it seems to hit the mark.
‘The other day I was reading Newsweek magazine and came across some Poll data I found rather hard to believe. It must be true given the source, right?
The Newsweek poll alleges that 67 percent of Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is headed and 69 percent of the country is unhappy with the performance of the President.
In essence 2/3 of the citizenry just ain’t happy and want a change. So being the knuckle dragger I am, I started thinking, ‘What are we so unhappy about?”
A.. Is it that we have electricity and running water 24 hours a day, 7 Days a week?
B.. Is our unhappiness the result of having air conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter?
C.. Could it be that 95.4 percent of these unhappy folks have a job?
D. Maybe it is the ability to walk into a grocery store at any time and see more food in moments than Darfur has seen in the last year?
E.. Maybe it is the ability to drive our cars and trucks from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean without having to present identification papers as we move through each state?
F.. Or possibly the hundreds of clean and safe motels we would find along the way that can provide temporary shelter?
G.. I guess having thousands of restaurants with varying cuisine from around the world is just not good enough either.
H. Or could it be that when we wreck our car, emergency workers show up and provide services to help all and even send a helicopter to take you to the hospital.
I.. Perhaps you are one of the 70 percent of Americans who own a home.
J.. You may be upset with knowing that in the unfortunate case of a fire, a group of trained firefighters will appear in moments and use top notch equipment to extinguish the flames, thus saving you, your family, and your belongings.
K.. Or if, while at home watching one of your many flat screen TVs, a burglar or prowler intrudes, an officer equipped with a gun and a bullet-proof vest will come to defend you and your family against attack or loss.
L.. This all in the backdrop of a neighborhood free of bombs or militias raping and pillaging the residents. Neighborhoods where 90% of teenagers own cell phones and computers.
M.. How about the complete religious, social and political freedoms we enjoy that are the envy of everyone in the world?
Maybe that is what has 67% of you folks unhappy.
Fact is, we are the largest group of ungrateful, spoiled brats the world has ever seen. No wonder the world loves the U.S. , yet has a great disdain for its citizens. They see us for what we are. The most blessed people in the world who do nothing but complain about what we don’t have, and what we hate about the country instead of thanking the good Lord we live here.
I know, I know. What about the president who took us into war and has no plan to get us out? The president who has a measly 31 percent approval rating? Is this the same president who guided the nation in the dark days after 9/11? The president that cut taxes to bring an economy out of recession? Could this be the same guy who has been called every name in the book for succeeding in keeping all the spoiled ungrateful brats safe from terrorist attacks? The commander in chief of an all-volunteer army that is out there defending you and me?
Did you hear how bad the President is on the news or talk show? Did this news affect you so much, make you so unhappy you couldn’t take a look around for yourself and see all the good things and be glad? Think about it……are you upset at the President because he actually caused you personal pain OR is it because the ‘Media’ told you he was failing to kiss your sorry ungrateful behind every day. Make no mistake about it.
The troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have volunteered to serve, and in many cases may have died for your freedom. There is currently no draft in this country. They didn’t have to go. They are able to refuse to go and end up with either a ”general” discharge, an ‘other than honorable” discharge or, worst case scenario, a ”dishonorable” discharge after a few days in the brig.
So why then the flat-out discontentment in the minds of 69 percent of Americans?
Say what you want but I blame it on the media. If it bleeds it leads and they specialize in bad news. Everybody will watch a car crash with blood and guts. How many will watch kids selling lemonade at the corner? The media knows this and media outlets are for-profit corporations. They offer what sells, and when criticized, try to defend their actions by ‘justifying’ them in one way or another. Just ask why they tried to allow a murderer like OJ. Simpson to write a book about how he didn’t kill his wife, but if he did he would have done it this way……Insane!
Turn off the TV, burn Newsweek, and use the New York Times for the bottom of your bird cage. Then start being grateful for all we have as country. There is exponentially more good than bad. We are among the most blessed people on Earth and should thank God several times a day, or at least be thankful and appreciative.’ ‘With hurricanes, tornados, fires out of control, mud slides, flooding, severe thunderstorms tearing up the country from one end to another, and with the threat of bird flu and terrorist attacks, ‘Are we sure this is a good time to take God out of the Pledge of Allegiance?’
Jay Leno
skibabe on August 28, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Gallup has O up by 6 in daily tracking. I predict there will be a bounce. But McCain has been brillant at keeping it pretty low. That Hurricane could really hurt the Rs though. And we are just not as likely to get the TV audience. Unless there is something planned that I don’t know about.
petunia on August 28, 2008 at 1:55 PM
skibabe:
That is amazing. I think a lot of people feel like Leno but are just afraid to say so.
Terrye on August 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM
petunia:
I saw that too. Gallup had McCain up by one a few days ago. But then again they had Obama up by 9 during his European vacation only to see that fall to a tie within a week.
I have to admit, I wonder about these tracking polls.
McCain’s people said they were expecting a bounce of about 15 for Obama.
As for TV audience, I read that the Convention has had lackluster viewership. That might be one reason the bounce has not been higher.
Terrye on August 28, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Yeah, Rasmussen seems to usually be a day behind Gallop on these things. The bounce will hit by tomorrow or over the weekend.
Given the hurricane, maybe the One actually IS hurling lighting bolts from Mt. Olympus. Crap luck… idiot builds his temple in an outdoor stadium and the Republicans get stuck with the hurricane.
Damiano on August 28, 2008 at 2:05 PM
While it’s spot on, it isn’t Leno. But then, it doesn’t need to be Leno to be true.
Pablo on August 28, 2008 at 2:12 PM
skibabe on August 28, 2008 at 1:52 PM
That’s the one.
Pablo on August 28, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Yeah, I had my doubts about it when I read the email, should have checked it out first.
thevastlane on August 28, 2008 at 2:26 PM
The McCain campaign predicted a 15 point bounce assuming that the Hillary crowd threw in the towel and joined the Obama Nation. The big test will be the poll on the Wednesday following the Republican convention which will reflect both bounces and the weekend talk show analyses.
The unfortunate thing was that the press simply did not refute some of the clear falsehoods put out last night that will continue to to hurt in the polls for days. Any falsehood or even debatable item put out by McCain’s convention will be highlighted and tortured in the media.
But whining does not help. I think the McCain campaign has been quite competent in the last month and if he can pull this election out, it should prove more management ability than he had been given credit for and a lot more than Obama has demonstrated in his campaign inthe last two months.
KW64 on August 28, 2008 at 2:42 PM
I am really scared. I actually feel sick. I’m scared because the polls show that Obama leads by 5. I can’t beleive this nobody could actually win. This guy who hangs around with very bad characters. He could really ruin this country. He has nothing to prove leadership nor good judgement, and people are being caught up in the hype. There are enough stupid people in this country to get this man elected.
Mercy4Me on August 28, 2008 at 3:35 PM
If it was Dick Morris then I think instead of taking it with a grain of salt I’ll take it out to the backyard and shoot it.
OneGyT on August 28, 2008 at 7:43 PM