Bounce: Six-point swing for Obama in Gallup
posted at 3:04 pm on August 28, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Nonsense, says Marc Ambinder. A true bounce lasts weeks; after three days, all we can call this is a blip. It’s true that they’re still tied in Rasmussen, but…
The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention “bounce” that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades. There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening’s high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night’s speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night’s speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night’s lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.
Last night was the strongest thus far and tonight will be even stronger, so if he’s already picking up points from Hillary nuts coming home and middle America warming to Michelle O, he’s in good shape. Especially given the bad vibes surrounding the GOP convention: There’s a hurricane on the horizon, pro-choice VPs in the mix, and an enthusiasm gap guaranteeing that the most of the airtime will be devoted less to building up McCain than tearing down The One. My hunch is our best-case scenario for mid-September is McCain still stuck at 45 but with Obama’s bounce destroyed by GOP attacks. Exit question: Too pessimistic?
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No, not too pessimistic.
PBoilermaker on August 28, 2008 at 3:07 PM
This certainly isn’t the best news, but it’s not the worst either. Regular Democrats, in years where the GOP is assumed to have a good chance, gets about a 5% bounce. This is a year where the GOP’s not supposed to have a snowball’s shot in hell and Obama’s only managed to get a 6%, as Ambinder says, blip.
Obama’s lost more than that in a single week before.
amerpundit on August 28, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Too pessimistic.
elduende on August 28, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Oh noes! We’re done, stick a fork in us. The Messiah truly is the Son of God.
El_Terrible on August 28, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Off-topic, but the two-headed baby died.
pseudonominus on August 28, 2008 at 3:10 PM
It all hinges on who McCain picks for VP.
Which I think is stupid b/c up until recently nobody gave $h!t who the VP was.
Lance Murdock on August 28, 2008 at 3:10 PM
If The One’s gets another 3 or 4 points following his speech tonight we could be in some trouble. The Republican convention could get swallowed up by a major disaster in the gulf too. This whole election cycle has been nuts though, and it’s impossible to predict anything with a lot of accuracy.
BadgerHawk on August 28, 2008 at 3:11 PM
heh….remember “we need 15%”
2 well handled hurricanes during convention week will trump this bounce.
sven10077 on August 28, 2008 at 3:11 PM
It’s impossible for any reasonable person to be too pessimistic about much of anything this election.
progressoverpeace on August 28, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Definitely too pessimistic.
keepinitreal on August 28, 2008 at 3:12 PM
The degree of pessimism depends on who he chooses for vice president. If he goes temporarily insane and chooses Lieberman, I expect he’ll drop into the lower 40s only to climb back up when people realize that Obama is inexperienced.
I think the six percent may indicate some Democrats, er, coming home to roost after the beginning of the convention.
Slublog on August 28, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Might as well not even hold an election now. After all, polls mean everything.
fossten on August 28, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Ronald Reagan is divine. Right?
That would make this man your messiah.
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Remember folks, in 2004, the media was good for about Kerry +15%. What about this year? 20%? More?
Hoodlumman on August 28, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Big deal.
By the time the Republican Convention is over, Obambi will be at least 5 points down.
From which he will only go down.
Bank on it.
NoDonkey on August 28, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Wait for the debates, we will gut him and Scranton like fishes.
Cardiganfox on August 28, 2008 at 3:15 PM
Linkplz.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on August 28, 2008 at 3:15 PM
If he doesn’t pick Romney, he will not win. I don’t care how many houses he has.
RedSoxNation on August 28, 2008 at 3:17 PM
You’re wrong!! BLASPHEMY!
He IS a god.
ZEUS!!!!
YellowDawg on August 28, 2008 at 3:17 PM
He should be up by 12 not 6, that is the news. Very seldom is it this close, they have news 24/3. If they can’t 10 points out of that they are in for really bad times.
Let’s wait till after the Republicans next week.
It is 6-5 in the first set and it is our serve.
right2bright on August 28, 2008 at 3:17 PM
YOu know, for a while there, I was altering my opinion of Bill Clinton slightly and beginning to give him some credit for his time in office. Still have to do some of that—but when I saw and heard both Clintons throwing themselves on their swords ostensibly to unify the Democratic Party–my first and last reaction was/is: What’s in this for them? They both hate Obama, no mistake. So why? Why sacrifice themselves for a Party that has screwed them over big time. Bill, at least, could have sat this one out–instead he waxed eloquent. Why? Why?
jeanie on August 28, 2008 at 3:17 PM
1. Can’t change the weather, but Jindal is on the case;
2. Pro-life VP pick likely;
3. Folks at the convo are, by definition, mostly McCain supporters. And they will be able to talk about McCain’s accomplishments (preferably focusing on those conservatives like, though with dashes of reformy Maverick for the middle) as a contrast to The One’s lack of accomplishments.
4. Too optimistic? Probably. Team McCain got its adverising act together, but whether they can properly plan a convention remains to be seen.
Karl on August 28, 2008 at 3:17 PM
72 hours of good behavior by the Obamas will be soon be forgotten, as the press really digs into Ayers, Wright, Rezko, McPeak, etc. The Dems are slowly realizing that they fell for Kennedyesque smooth-talking and style… with nothing in the way of substance. (Russia’s invasion of Georgia proved that.) It’s McCain’s race to lose… and we’ll know within 48 hours if he’s going to, when we see his VP pick. (Hope it’s Mitt!)
VastRightWingConspirator on August 28, 2008 at 3:18 PM
Romney spent millions, a record amount, and couldn’t get traction. Why would he now?
right2bright on August 28, 2008 at 3:18 PM
I would be very worried if he was not ahead at all. I would then suspect the polls. I WANT McCain to be down going into election day; this will, hopefully, energize our side to vote.
carbon_footprint on August 28, 2008 at 3:18 PM
It will all hinge on the debates…
Wyznowski on August 28, 2008 at 3:19 PM
I personally think that Obama’s speech tonight will create a backlash. It might be obscured by the start of the Republican convention but it will happen. It happened after the Berlin trip and this is, by all indications, much worse in terms of hype and rock star image.
Kronos on August 28, 2008 at 3:19 PM
What they say publicly (to keep in good graces) and what they do behind the scenes are two different animals for the Clintons.
Hillary’s only chance of being president is if Obama loses…her only chance, she and Bill will not squander that chance.
right2bright on August 28, 2008 at 3:21 PM
Hey, did you guys see the new york times story today that casually reveals that Obama’s classmates were mocking him for being a celebrity even back in law school? Very funny, and it should be a bigger story!
AdrianG on August 28, 2008 at 3:21 PM
Exit question: Too pessimistic?
You? That’s a rhetorical question, right?
Vashta.Nerada on August 28, 2008 at 3:22 PM
Off-topic but what the heck is up with the *eats*
pseudonominus on August 28, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Also, semantically, Ambinder is wrong.
A “bounce” suggests something that comes back to earth due to gravity. A “bounce” is temporary.
The issue is whether this is a the start of a “boost” that defies gravity.
Karl on August 28, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Jeanie, Hillary didn’t fall on her sword. She glaringly omitted a very important statement. She knew McCain was running ads with footage of her dissing Obama, and she could have put that to rest once and for all with a strong statement. Instead, she sailed straight past it.
She’s going to vote for McCain herself. You watch – her goal is the White House. Single term McCain gets her another shot. Double term Obama does not.
She didn’t sacrifice jack diddly.
fossten on August 28, 2008 at 3:25 PM
If McCain spites the conservatives with a lib VP pick he can kiss this election goodbye.
Maverick ?? – Bah
defendfaithandfamily on August 28, 2008 at 3:25 PM
You’re obviously just jealous that ObamaZeus overthrew you.
phronesis on August 28, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Obama’s speech will be excellent tonight. He will talk to his people and they will respond. This will be a great night for him. This is a pep rally, they always do good, this is the wedding reception.
However, the honeymoon is soon over, and as pointed out by others, he now has to face the news media, the people, the debates. He can no longer hide, he cannot stand, nor his past (what little there is) stand the scrutiny of the public.
right2bright on August 28, 2008 at 3:26 PM
The bounce is probably because McCain can’t decide who is running mate is going to be.
chb03c on August 28, 2008 at 3:26 PM
More like Loki.
Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on August 28, 2008 at 3:28 PM
I’d be surprised if Obama holds less than a 10-point lead over the weekend.
McCain doesn’t have a running mate yet. It’s 2 on 1, plus the media.
A recent Rasmussen poll found that McCain was liked by 55%, Obama by 54%. McCain needs to stay above the fray to stay well-liked, while his VP increases Obama’s negatives.
We have to turn the man-god act against himself.
The houses thing is hurting McCain still. The attack has two aspects to it: accusations of greed, and accusations of being out-of-touch. McCain has already defeated the greed angle by pointing out the facts. McCain needs to talk to truck drivers, waittresses, factory workers, unemployed people, and demonstrate for America that he is “one of us.”
indythinker on August 28, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Long time reader, first time commenter.
Yes, you’re being too pessimistic. Is Obama now the clear favorite because one out of a zillion polls has him up by 6? This daily temperature taking on the status of the race means jack. Although I guess it’s fun to analyze, I dot know. Only one poll matters, and that’s on November 4. McCain will win because of the racists. Hate to win that way, but that’s what’ll probably happen.
The Dean on August 28, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Hot off the copy machine from the DNC Public Relations rep, here is this evening’s Schedule of Events:
7:00 pm OPENING FLAG BURNING
7:15 pm PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE TO THE U.N.
7:20 pm Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST
7:25 pm NONRELIGIOUS PRAYER AND WORSHIP – Jesse Jackson & Al Sharpton
7:45 pm CEREMONIAL TREE HUGGING – Darryl Hannah
7:55 pm Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST
8:00 pm HOW I INVENTED THE INTERNET- Al Gore
8:15 pm GAY WEDDING PLANNING – Rosie O’Donnell
8:35 pm Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST
8:40 pm OUR TROOPS ARE WAR CRIMINALS- John Kerry
9.00 pm MEMORIAL SERVICE FOR SADDAM AND HIS SONS – Cindy Sheehan and Susan Sarandon
10:00 pm ANSWERING MACHINE ETIQUETTE – Alec Baldwin
11:00 pm Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST
11:05 pm COLLECTION FOR THE OSAMA BIN LADEN KIDNEY TRANSPLANT FUND – Barbra Streisand
11:15 pm FREE THE FREEDOM FIGHTERS FROM GUANTANAMO BAY- Sean Penn
11:30 pm OVAL OFFICE AFFAIRS – William Jefferson Clinton
11:45 pm Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST
11:50 pm HOW GEORGE BUSH BROUGHT DOWN THE WORLD TRADE TOWERS – Howard Dean
12:15 am TRUTH IN BROADCASTING AWARD- Presented to Dan Rather by Michael Moore
12:25 am Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST
12:30 am SATELLITE ADDRESS – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
12:45 am NOMINATION OF Barack Hussein Obama- Nancy Pelosi
1:00 am Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST To Obama
1:30 am Ted Kennedy PROPOSES A TOAST To Hillary Clinton
1:35 am Bill Clinton asks Ted Kennedy to drive Hillary home
DavePa on August 28, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Just remember guys, in 2000, Algore was trailing Bush by 17 points before the convention, and pulled to within a dead heat after his convention. This year, The One is LEADING McCain by 1-2 points, and will get some kind of bounce.
The real question is, will McCain be able to not only neutralize The One’s lead, but actually pull AHEAD of The One in a national poll?
Outlander on August 28, 2008 at 3:33 PM
pwnt!
pseudonominus on August 28, 2008 at 3:35 PM
NEWS FLASH!!!
Wikipedia says Kay Bailey Hutchinsen is McCain’s veep pick!
Wiki is never wrong!
pseudonominus on August 28, 2008 at 3:40 PM
Word of advice to the GOP:
1.)Talk up McCain, dont even mention Obama.
2.)Talk about actual issues, and be conservative while doing so.
3.)For God’s sake, show some nuts!
TheHat on August 28, 2008 at 3:41 PM
VERY SERIOUS PROPOSAL
Whatever happens – hurricane, Lieberman, Hurricane Lieberman, whatever – can we please all agree not to refer to any speech at the Republican Convention as a “home run” or as “hit out of the park,” and to deride mercilessly any pundit, blogger, or commenter who employs that cliche?
CK MacLeod on August 28, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Bet on Kay Bailey Hutchison.
I hope Obama stays up around 4 points until election day.
Entelechy on August 28, 2008 at 3:42 PM
My source is not Wikipedia.
Entelechy on August 28, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Yes – too pessimistic.
6 points after the non-stop fellatio this clown has gotten from the media is nothing (and even without the media’s “lip service” it’s still not a big bounce).
McCain’s pick will have some bearing, but overall, McCain has to begin hammering his vision while the surrogates hammer the prince of peace — and remember, he (O) hasn’t broken away from anyone in this race.
D2Boston on August 28, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Texas will be competitive?
Entelechy on August 28, 2008 at 3:44 PM
What really grieves me about such polls is that so many people are moved by the showboating at conventions. All I had to do was Spend 10 min on a candidates web site to make my choice. How hard is that?
Hochmeister on August 28, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Kay Bailey Hutchison is pro-abortion…according to wiki:
Hutchison is against outlawing abortion. She also believes that the decision of the United States Supreme Court in Roe v. Wade was appropriate and secures a constitutional right, and that it should not be overturned.
sorry I had to quote wiki, but there it is
pseudonominus on August 28, 2008 at 3:51 PM
No question that last night was by far the weakest with slow Joe droning on and on, gaffe after gaffe, lie after lie. Now, tonight may be different. I’d expect a bump in the polls tomorrow but obviously the Gallup poll is the outlier with all the rest showing a statistical tie.
Capitalist Infidel on August 28, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Polls are like movie trailers.
Why? He is not “one of us.” He is a US Senator, which makes him among the most exclusive country clubbers in the World.
The man’s wealth is not a problem for me since I am a capitalist hog. But he tried to cast Obama as an “elitist” when he is one himself. Lame.
Save the craptastic, surrogate race-baiting, useless class warfare for the left. McCain is a warrior. We are at war. Nuf said.
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Wiki? as soon as someone tells me they read it in Wikipedia I do the “talk to the hand” thing…… wiki?…. too funny.
MNDavenotPC on August 28, 2008 at 3:59 PM
Obama’s elitism has nothing to do with wealth.
Ronnie on August 28, 2008 at 4:02 PM
Your nuanced perspective is likely lost on us little people.
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Exactly – it’s about attitude. The poorest Liberal can be an elitist snob just from a belief in their own superiority.
DerKrieger on August 28, 2008 at 4:08 PM
And Donald Trump can be a man of the people just because he has the right “attitude.” What planet do you live on? Certainly not a capitalist one.
Grow Fins on August 28, 2008 at 4:13 PM
does a 6 pt. jump in a 3-day rolling average poll mean the most recent day’s numbers are even more in favor of Obama than the 6 pts?
toenail on August 28, 2008 at 4:15 PM
Zeus will shine the light. So let it be written. So let it be done.
Ronnie on August 28, 2008 at 4:15 PM
You do understand that there is nothing according to wikipedia. Wikipedia is an aggregate source of personal submissions by random, everyday, wannabe knowitalls. The community interactivity fosters a relatively high rate of accuracy, but is not infallible.
“According to wikipedia” is not a strong citation. One would need to know the actual author of the article. Also, when posting links to wikipedia, they should be timestamped since the site can be modified at any moment by contributors.
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Do you really believe the press will dig into any of that? You are far more optimistic of the press than I. I think it will all be glossed over, per MSM SOP.
batter on August 28, 2008 at 4:18 PM
No way too pissy AP, in fact if it is Pawlenty I think it may get worse.. Need some pop to get things going and break the 45-46 range, hopefully the GOP convention will be the usual tight machine roll out it is infamous for.
saus on August 28, 2008 at 4:19 PM
OT
What conservative message boards/social networks do people like?
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 4:19 PM
Where praytell does all of the information come from about these subjects if not original reporting by MSM journalists?
Please advise as to where I will find original reporting from the right as opposed to running commentary on these issues. I think the right needs to be grooming many more sensible journalists. Please let me know whom you like for consistent info gathering.
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 4:23 PM
He who has the last convention swings best? We’ll see.
IMHO, we’ll swing best with a Mitt. ;-)
Christine on August 28, 2008 at 4:28 PM
I remember the 2004 election. It seemed like Kerry was ahead every single day, even less than a month before the voting. Polls are worthless.
Speedwagon82 on August 28, 2008 at 4:29 PM
I hope a crane falls on Pelosi, Reid, and BOTH Obamas.
marklmail on August 28, 2008 at 4:32 PM
Classy.
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 4:49 PM
Substitute their names with those of your favorite family members. Enjoy the thought, loser.
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 4:50 PM
Too pessimistic.
surrounded on August 28, 2008 at 5:01 PM
What conservative message boards/social networks do people like?
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 4:19 PM
Roundandbrown.com
I keed. Or not.
Bishop on August 28, 2008 at 5:10 PM
I hope McCain does buck conventional wisdom and pick someone that’s really gonna shake things up. If he picked Lieberman he would pick up enough moderate Democrats to put him over the top.
jonezee on August 28, 2008 at 5:18 PM
if he picked Lieberman he would pick up enough moderate Democrats to put him over the top.
jonezee on August 28, 2008 at 5:18 PM
I wanted to laugh but I realized I might collapse and die from stomach cramps.
Gain a few moderate democrats and lose how many millions of conservatives who are already a bit suspicious of McCain? I agree, that would shake things up, it would shake Obama right into the White House in a landslide.
Bishop on August 28, 2008 at 5:23 PM
68 days remaining, this election has just started. McCain need to stay close, there will be more dirt on this arrogant prick. It out there, a self-centered pretentious annoying person like him……… its there.
try again later on August 28, 2008 at 5:29 PM
bootay
The Race Card on August 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM
Allah Dude,
Yes, you killed my buzz with this commentary. Maybe you need a pick me up. Mine for the day is imagining Obama arriving on a cloud float to center stage at Invesco.
EyesOpen on August 28, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Heheheheheheh!
OldEnglish on August 28, 2008 at 9:10 PM
I think you are a big pussy who gets his thong in a knot and wrings his hands every time one of these democtats opens their mouths…
DWMT4867 on August 28, 2008 at 9:53 PM
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