Florida: McCain up 7
posted at 9:15 am on August 27, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Barack Obama would dearly love to flip Florida, and his selection of Joe Biden may have had some designs on seniors in the Sunshine State. If so, the latest polling from Strategic Vision can’t make Obama very happy. In a survey of 1200 likely voters, John McCain leads Florida by seven points in a three-way race with Bob Barr, his largest lead in the state thus far, 49%-42%, with Barr getting one point and eight percent undecided.
Real Clear Politics shows that the race had been tightening in Florida until three weeks ago. In July, McCain and Obama had been tied for two weeks and Obama had gained significant momentum. Now all of that has disappeared, and Obama has slid all the way back to where he was after Hillary’s withdrawal from the race in June. This tracks closely to national polling, where Obama has slid catastrophically since clinching the nomination.
The survey has other interesting results. Floridians used to have strong opposition to off-shore drilling, but no longer. They now strongly support it, 62%-27%. Democrat Bill Nelson gets better job approval ratings for his Senate work than Republican Mel Martinez, 55% to 48% respectively. Charlie Crist remains popular as governor, but not as a potential McCain running mate. He has a 59% approval rating as governor, but only 34% favor McCain adding him to the ticket, with 52% opposed.
Florida can come out of the toss-up category and go back into the red-state column. If Obama hoped that Barr would impact McCain in the south, he’s going to be disappointed. Given that this survey took place during and after the Biden selection, it looks like that was a bust as well.
Blowback
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Heh every “too old” joke Messiah the Lightworker “gets help with” hurts him as much in Florida as McCain implying Barry is Urkel would McCain in Harlem.
sven10077 on August 27, 2008 at 9:17 AM
Maybe all of those “McCain’s too old!” cracks are taking their toll.
You’re a pup there at 72.
NoDonkey on August 27, 2008 at 9:19 AM
Makes me wanna move back to Fl. where my vote will count. Living in Delaware, I might as well stay home.
Tony737 on August 27, 2008 at 9:23 AM
I can see it now… we are all going to be up extremely late on election night. Waiting for the friggin’ hanging chads to be counted again.
http://thepajamapundit.com/
thePajamaPundit on August 27, 2008 at 9:23 AM
Is it time to throw Biden under the bus in favor of Madam Clinton? The dims have no loyalty even to themselves.
volsense on August 27, 2008 at 9:23 AM
It’s gonna be Crist…mark my words.
I just don’t get that polling. Crist as veep would hand-deliver Fla. to McCain for sure. And that Gallup poll, who are they asking, Floridians? Republicans?
JetBoy on August 27, 2008 at 9:23 AM
“You are young, my son, and, as the years go by, time will change and even reverse many of your present opinions. Refrain therefore awhile from setting yourself up as a judge of the highest matters,” – Plato.
Akzed on August 27, 2008 at 9:23 AM
New Obama campaign song: Slip Sliding Away
Disturb the Universe on August 27, 2008 at 9:25 AM
Yeeehaw is eating crow for breakfast in Denver today.
Just how far will Dean’s hate speech take him down?
maverick muse on August 27, 2008 at 9:25 AM
You’re a pup there at 72. – NoDonks
Yeah, there’s some seriously OLD people living in Miami … but their PARENTS live in Tampa!
Tony737 on August 27, 2008 at 9:26 AM
Noooooooooooooooooooooo!!! You have my permission to dine at Harry’s Savoy Grillif you vote. No vote, no supper.
Akzed on August 27, 2008 at 9:26 AM
Disturb the Universe
Glad you second the motion.
Funny thing, how absolutely appropriate the lyrics are throughout, not merely in title only.
maverick muse on August 27, 2008 at 9:27 AM
I know how you feel. But we might be able to elect Charlie Copeland and get him in the governor’s office in 2012. And I swear, I just might pull the lever for Tom Gordon, even if he is a crook.
BigD on August 27, 2008 at 9:27 AM
But why pick Crist if he doesn’t need him to win Florida (as RCP polls are showing)? By that logic, he picks Pawlenty.
Compared to other polls listed at RCP, it’s barely the outlier — SurveyUSA had McCain +6. So whoever they polled, it’s similar to the sample group of the others.
LastRick on August 27, 2008 at 9:28 AM
no way
no how
noBama
sulla on August 27, 2008 at 9:28 AM
Now, Now, Now! Just wait until Bubba gives his thundering endorsement tonight! That will push Obama over the top!
sabbott on August 27, 2008 at 9:29 AM
Florida won’t be all that close, and they don’t need Crist to win it – look at the demographics.
Vashta.Nerada on August 27, 2008 at 9:29 AM
Folks in Florida appreciate the gravitas of the DNC double aneurysm VP. Biden’s playing the Totentanz but can’t make it to the final cadence.
maverick muse on August 27, 2008 at 9:29 AM
Members of the Boomer, Silent, and Greatest generations proliferate the great state of Florida. They all know what sacrifice means. I think they are all talking about Obummer and have concluded that they can sacrifice a little longer to keep the American way rather than elect an empty suit who will destroy that way of life. Is that distant rumble the potential beginning of a landslide?
HomeoftheBrave on August 27, 2008 at 9:30 AM
Didn’t we have a story here last week about Obama pulling out of a lot of red states “just during the convention?” I think I remember Florida being in the list. I guess Obama’s internal polling predicted this outcome.
If he is going to run away every time he gets a bloody nose, he’ll be lucky to take Illinois and Delaware in the general.
Kafir on August 27, 2008 at 9:30 AM
We love McCain here in Boca Raton…and where I work in Fort Lauderdale…and where I hang out in Miami! This makes me so happy.
FLcapitalistthug on August 27, 2008 at 9:31 AM
Romney/Copeland 2012!!!
Akzed on August 27, 2008 at 9:31 AM
Not quite, they live in St. Pete.
MarkTheGreat on August 27, 2008 at 9:32 AM
key is the Rust belt
jp on August 27, 2008 at 9:33 AM
Poll in New Mexico last week had McCain up 5
jp on August 27, 2008 at 9:33 AM
It’s McHurriCain formin’ on the horizon!
RushBaby on August 27, 2008 at 9:33 AM
Keep an eye on Pennsylvania instead. If that goes red, it will be a long evening for the One.
Vashta.Nerada on August 27, 2008 at 9:34 AM
One of the things you will find in Florida is that many of those supposed old people, including myself, are extremely active individuals. I deal with people who are old enough to be my parents and they are alert, active and still enjoying life.
Many of us have our retirements invested and anyone who would tax our retirement to the degree that Obama states by going after capital gains only serves to hurt us. We also have children and grandchildren that we do not want to see suffering because Obama wants to transfer money from those who work to those who do not.
dtrumpet on August 27, 2008 at 9:35 AM
He’s far ahead in Old Mexico too. It’s a runaway.
Darksean on August 27, 2008 at 9:39 AM
He-he-he-he-he….
Wipe Out!!!!!
Hening on August 27, 2008 at 9:39 AM
wonder if the moonbats will hesitate bussing in illegals to polling places this year based on that fact???
sven10077 on August 27, 2008 at 9:40 AM
The two numbers make sense. Crist is a popular governor and it seems those polled would rather see him remain governor than join the McCain ticket.
If I were the Lt. Governor, I’d wonder why so many people didn’t want me to take the top spot. :-D
Slublog on August 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM
I think this country’s gonna get a Bic Mac Attack this November!
Gods, I hope I didn’t jinx it!
Sekhmet on August 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM
His pompous attitude, campaigning to the world instead of Americans and vacationing in Hawaii as commies stomped Georgia will make his defeat that much sweeter.
Alden Pyle on August 27, 2008 at 9:43 AM
no thanks necessary…just doing what we can down here in S.FLA to defeat Marxism!
elduende on August 27, 2008 at 9:44 AM
You have my permission to dine at Harry’s Savoy Grill if you vote. No vote, no supper. – Akzed
Where’s that located? Do you work at / own this place? I’d love to spend my money at place owned by a fellow HotHead! We could have a Delaware HotHead Association meetings! WOOO HOOOO!
Looks like Hilpatine’s big speech is driving more PUMAs away from >O< instead of towards Him! haha
Tony737 on August 27, 2008 at 9:46 AM
I would have said “Obama has slid badly,” so that if he continues to slide, I’d have words to describe the worsening of his condition. Really, Ed, I wish I didn’t have to stay on guard when I read your posts.
Kralizec on August 27, 2008 at 9:47 AM
Most in Florida are republicans and they like having low taxes and no income tax. Go figure if Obama is in power.
Also, I went on vacation in Southern Florida and the Cuban Americans in Hialeah and Miami absolutely love McCain and loathe Obama’s socialist ways. They are really riled up for this election as well as the young Cuban Americans. They really like McCain.
jencab on August 27, 2008 at 9:47 AM
The One will soon announce he plans to part the waters in the gulf to allow drilling there without the possibility of an oil spill.
flyoverland on August 27, 2008 at 9:49 AM
sabbott on August 27, 2008 at 9:29 AM
Now, Now, Now! Just wait until Bubba gives his thundering endorsement tonight! That will push Obama over
the topa cliff!That’s much more like it.
Laura in Maryland on August 27, 2008 at 9:51 AM
Florida can come out of the toss-up category and go back into the red-state column.
There’s no point in taking it out if we might have to put it right back.
Let’s see if McCain’s lead lasts before we declare this election to be won already.
daryl_herbert on August 27, 2008 at 9:54 AM
You really think that’s the reason? In any event, I wish McCain would just get it over with, and announce already! I can’t take any more speculative rumors.
JetBoy on August 27, 2008 at 10:06 AM
Well, I live in Boca Raton, and at age 41, I consider myself a “pup!” :) I also believe Crist is exactly the WRONG choice for VP. If McCain is already 7 points ahead in the state, what’s the rationale for choosing RINO Crist?
Dariaanne on August 27, 2008 at 10:07 AM
I’m a 44 year old registered independent living in Florida and voting anti-Marxist(for John McCain!!!) All the lefties I know are voting the same way….No one wants a Marxist.
adamsmith on August 27, 2008 at 10:09 AM
The Dem convention seems to be helping maverick than his ads. Is there any way they can hold a second one?
Sounds like a great idea, but Harry’s is out of my league. After my last fill-up about all I can handle is La Tolteca or the Claymont Steak Shop.
dinobalz on August 27, 2008 at 10:10 AM
It’s gotta be all them racist blue dog democrats. It can’t be they oppose the messiah on the issues.
roninacreage on August 27, 2008 at 10:11 AM
In the past, the Obama has endorsed a 15% tax on the value of 401Ks.
MarkTheGreat on August 27, 2008 at 10:12 AM
O! :
“I don’t know how we could have lost our lead in Florida???”
Michelle-ma Belle :
“Now Barry, you know who’s fault it is…”
Together :
THE JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSS
RocketmanBob on August 27, 2008 at 10:13 AM
As a Floridian resident, it’s good to see some signs of good judgment – both in the McCain/Obama polling and the views of Crist as a VP. Best thing to do is to keep Crist here where he can do the least harm and then retire him at the next State election.
reagan2010 on August 27, 2008 at 10:15 AM
That’s more likely
MarkTheGreat on August 27, 2008 at 10:15 AM
Adamsmith,
You must be right, because I’ve noticed lots of McCain bumper stickers on cars (seen a few for Obama, but more for McCain). I’m also happy to report that most of the seasoned adults in my office (as opposed to those just out of college) are voting Republican. We have serious issues with McCain, but recognize the dangerous world we’re living in and would prefer to entrust our security to someone who actually understands the nature of evil (KGB, Islamic terrorism, etc.). While I will vote McCain though, my involvement in local GOTV efforts depends largely on his VP choice. I am praying he makes a good one (Palin, Kasich, Romney, Sanford or Pawlenty).
Dariaanne on August 27, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Sounds like a great idea, but Harry’s is out of my league. – Dino
I’ve never even heard of Harry’s, is it a fancy schmancy place? We could always hold our meetings at Taco Bell! :-)
Tony737 on August 27, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Oh yeah, and if any HotHeads are ever on my plane (SWA) they get FREE DRINKS!
Tony737 on August 27, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Watch for Michigan to start showing some silimar trends in the older demographic poll numbers.
The *gun-grabbers,inc*, aka Obama/Biden/08, will be looking at a November election date that falls 11 days before the big State of Michigan Holiday(s), aka The First Week of Deer Camp.
You will have all those old-timers having to ‘uncling’ from their guns, that they are sighting in, cleaning, and dreaming about, long enough to go cast a vote.
(Anybody know when the gun deer hunting seasons open in Penn. and Ohio?)
I predict the NRA is going to unleash a torrent of money during October targeting (pun intended) the hunting traditions of the older generations of Americans.
Yoop on August 27, 2008 at 10:26 AM
Glad to see you guys are paying attention down there. Reduce government waste rather than raise taxes! Keep up the good work Florida!
Mr_Magoo on August 27, 2008 at 10:33 AM
If Obama loses the dead vote, he’s toast.
Anyone know of a reputable zombie poll?
Bishop on August 27, 2008 at 10:43 AM
That would be funnier, if there wasn’t a legitimate threat of huge voter fraud in November.
Vashta.Nerada on August 27, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Every electiion we get breathless accounts from the media on how the Democrat nominee is going to “compete in the red states”.
This stuff is getting so predictable – both that the media reports news as it would like it to be rather than as it is and that Democrats can’t compete in red states, at least not when it comes to Presidents.
Congressmen can pretend they’re conservative and squeak by as Democrats in red states, but that’s a lot harder to pull of nationally. That many people are not that stupid.
NoDonkey on August 27, 2008 at 10:45 AM
It’s the pregnant chads that you should be the most concerned about. Makes you wonder what folks handling the ballots were up to…
JohnAGJ on August 27, 2008 at 10:46 AM
PJ… They can count their chads but the outcome nationally won’t even be close this time.
CliffHanger on August 27, 2008 at 10:53 AM
Don’t think he doesn’t know it. That’s why he has all his ACORN
fraudsters. . . er, I mean “community organizer trainees,” out there working overtime.Think about that every time you hear an Obama spokesperson boasting about the superiority of Obama’s “ground operations.”
AZCoyote on August 27, 2008 at 10:53 AM
heh “Underground”
I’m Joe K. Daver and I approve this message!
sven10077 on August 27, 2008 at 10:55 AM
All of them were on Bruce B. Downs yesterday!!
I hope this trend hold true. I am not seeing may McCain bumperstickers (but I live near the university which leans/tilts/falls over left). Most of the people I know at church are voting for McCain, which just shows that polls are right about people who attend weekly religious gatherings (not to leave any faith out) are more likely to be for McCain. The gym is mixed between Obama and McCain pretty much on racial lines. Work is pretty solidly McCain, with several very loud voices (who do more harm than good to their cause – hehe) raised constantly for Obama.
talking_mouse on August 27, 2008 at 11:11 AM
That looks better…
Vashta.Nerada on August 27, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Oops, you beat me to it, Sven
Vashta.Nerada on August 27, 2008 at 11:24 AM
He has that approval rate because liberal democrats like his liberal policies (taking hundreds of thousands of democrat voters off the tax rolls permanently, giving felons back the vote, increasing state regulations on industries, etc.) and the 52% opposition for his becoming vp is because conservatives don’t like him. I’m not as worried about mccain choosing him as I was a few months ago but if by some chance mccain does pick crist that will cost him Florida.
peacenprosperity on August 27, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Wrong, see above at 11:26.
peacenprosperity on August 27, 2008 at 11:32 AM
It’s cost Obama $5 million and counting for that Florida drop, so show some respect Ed.
Chuck Schick on August 27, 2008 at 11:44 AM
By the way, if hillary had not run for the nomination, all those hill supporters would be rabid for barry right now. If Romney or Thompson had not run for the nomination, all those conservatives who are not happy about mccain winning the nomination would still be unhappy about it. There are more conservatives then the media or even republican leaders realize who are still not onboard with mccain and a wishy washy or really bad pick (huckster, crist, graham, lieberman) might still cause many to write in someone else or skip that vote all together.
peacenprosperity on August 27, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Somebody above mentioned that it’s all in the Rust Belt–and he or she is right. Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
The McCain campaign needs to get McCain some UM, Ohio State, and Penn State football tickets for some September and October home games. Picture McCain and Romney showing up at a UM home game. I live in Ohio, and I could see McCain shaking hands with OSU Head Coach Jim Tressel just before dotting the “I” on the script “Ohio.” Buckeye fans would go nuts. Finally, picture McCain rubbing shoulders with Paterno at a Penn St. home game. And for good measure, McCain might try to swing by a Notre Dame game in South Bend. Too bad, ND doesn’t play Navy until 11/15. There is, however, the ND-Michigan game on 9/13–NBC audience.
Midwesterners love this sh*t. And Obama could never pull it off. The best he could do is throw out the first pitch at a Cubs or White Sox playoff game. And even though he plays hoops, Obama’s the type who would drill the pitch into the dirt 10 feet before the plate.
I love watching the roof cave in on this guy.
BuckeyeSam on August 27, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Go ahead and move FL from “toss up” to “leans McCain”…and keep it there. Obama will not win FL. Period, end of discussion.
Too many pundits look at FL as a gray state, neither red nor blue nor pink nor purple. We’ve had a Republican governor since 1999, and both houses of the state legislature have been dominated by the GOP since the 1994 election.
But for some weird reason, the left thinks that because Bubba won FL in 1996 against a weak Dole, and because Gore came close in FL in 2000 (due to having a Jewish running mate that got the Jewish South FL condo commandos out to the polls; and due to his sycophants in the MSM calling FL early, while the Republican-heavy panhandle’s polls were still open, thus keeping 10-15k of them away from the polls), FL must be some neutral state. It’s not.
crushliberalism on August 27, 2008 at 12:27 PM
There may also be other strong reasons why McCain is ahead in FL right now. I’ll give you a few hints.
1. Hillary won the FL primary, not Obama – of course, delegates who were not counted until the last minute, and only by half. That leaves some people still raw from it.
2. Hillary won the PR primary. Nope, it doesn’t count in the final, but there’s a HUGE Puerto Rican community in FL, especially in Central FL, and we all are citizens by birth. And let’s not discount the Cuban-American community, many of which are citizens – and don’t like Communist affiliations, of which Obama has aplenty.
3. This article in Bloomberg gives me a hint that Obama may not do as well in Miami-Dade county as many Democrats seem to think… If people can give so much grief to one African-American school superintendent, how much more to Obama?
newton on August 27, 2008 at 12:27 PM
To qoute NRA president John C. Sigler: “Telling gun owners to vote for Obama is like telling chickens to vote for Colonel Sanders.”
tgharris on August 27, 2008 at 1:27 PM
“Finally, picture McCain rubbing shoulders with Paterno at a Penn St. home game.”
Paterno is a big Republican, although his son is an Obama supporter. JayPa’s responsible for recruiting in Ohio, which explains why OSU got Terrelle Prior and we get NADA from the Buckeye State.
Here’s a link to a story about JayPa’s blogging:
http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2008/06/23/jay-paterno-hearts-barack-obama-on-company-time/
The comments section is hilarious, Penn State fans are not happy about JayPa’s poor coaching, poor recruiting and poor playcalling and they let him have it on Obama’s blog.
NoDonkey on August 27, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Oh Yeah, swing state lovin!
Not too mention this new Iran Advert out today, seems like it was custom made to twack Obama painfully in Florida, suffice to say I clearly love it..
saus on August 27, 2008 at 1:52 PM
McCain can probably win FL without Crist on the ticket. As others have posted, his VP pick needs to target the Rust Belt: OH, PA, and MI. If McCain wins two of those three, he’ll be President. Romney could possibly deliver Michigan and/or CO, and Kasich would be strong in OH and PA.
Steve Z on August 27, 2008 at 2:10 PM
This does not surprise me. I really did not think Obama could win Florida.
Terrye on August 27, 2008 at 5:42 PM