Hope and change: McCain leads by two in Gallup, Obama down three days in a row in Rasmussen; Update: Polls are underestimating him, insists Pelosi

posted at 1:18 pm on August 26, 2008 by Allahpundit

Joementum!

It’s official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama’s Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week’s standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Meanwhile, the Freepers are passing the new Rasmussen around as evidence that the convention’s a bust because it includes data collected last night. Eh. It’s a three-day rolling average and Michelle O’s speech aired late enough that surely they didn’t bother polling the eastern half of the country afterwards. If she did as well with the public as she did with pundits (even conservatives) we should see be a bump tomorrow. Believe it or not, spouse speeches do matter.

But in the meantime, consider the dull thud of the Biden pick confirmed:

Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters…

Today’s results are the first based entirely upon interviews conducted since Joe Biden was named to be Obama’s running mate.

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.

Here’s Carville on CNN last night arguing that day one was, in fact, a big ol’ bust. This is a dream come true for Hillary, no? She gets her big moment tonight with two major national polls pointing squarely at the idea that she should have been named VP and that she, perhaps, alone can deliver the election to the Dems by rallying the PUMAs. Exit quotation: “She can do it, but that doesn’t mean we have to do it.”

Update: Madam Speaker spins like a gyroscope. Link via Ed who wonders what her logic could possibly be. A reverse Bradley effect? A late surge among young voters? Wishful thinking sparked by looming disaster in an otherwise gimme election?

Nope. Sample error!

The speaker said Obama and the other Democratic presidential candidates “have attracted millions of more voters — first-voters voters and many more voters who haven’t voted in a long time.

“Many of them are not even reachable by these pollsters,” Pelosi said. “These are polls of likely voters. Likely voters are people who have voted in the last two elections, and they are likely to vote again. They are not the universe of people who will vote on Nov. 4.”…

“We will own the ground Election Day,” she said.


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Comments

Attila (Pillage Idiot)

A fist bump, no doubt.

Guess Rush was wrong about the baby bump :p

Fortunata on August 26, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Been caucusing enough cadavers to guarantee something have you?

sven10077 on August 26, 2008 at 2:00 PM

What the dead can’t vote? They have always voted in BH0’s local elections.

Unquiet on August 26, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Chuck Schick on August 26, 2008 at 2:08 PM

You’re killing me! Like a bit of The People’s Cube on Hot Air.

progressoverpeace on August 26, 2008 at 2:16 PM

Hillary will find a way to sabotage Obama so she can run in 2012. If Obama wins then Hillary is out for good and the thought of that no doubt makes her blood boil. She views Obama as a usurper who didn’t have the respect to wait for his turn.

Prediction: Obama loses and Hillary runs against whomever McCani picks for VP. Obama will be over.

DerKrieger on August 26, 2008 at 2:18 PM

What…no love for Obama Bin Biden? I can see the DNC planting “racists” now. Mark my word.

hot-heir on August 26, 2008 at 2:21 PM

Drop it like it’s hot.

CP on August 26, 2008 at 2:25 PM

I don’t know, I think that that monstrous set, all of the MTV-like megatrons and sound effects takes away from the seriousness of what is going on. I’ve never supported Obama, but I consider myself an independent voter, and I’m definitely turned off by the excessive show biz quality of this convention.

It seems more like an awards show than a convention.

Priscilla on August 26, 2008 at 2:12 PM

I’m not saying it as I want it, but really, even the most politically minded people don’t want to sit through two conventions. There needs to be some pazazz to keep the attention of the public and/or the media (who I’m sure aren’t going to give such glowing reviews as they would the DNC convention). Who knows, maybe I’m wrong? I have already read that the set for the Republican convention is already going to be more toned down (there are pictures of the set floating around). Yet it also has to do with the quality of speeches and if their slotted speakers can deliver, that’s the most important aspect of a convention (nowadays, in the past they had a greater role).

DanStark on August 26, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Maybe Obama’s speeches would be better if he could actually come up with an original idea once in a while.

Remember this from Michelle O’s speech last night?

Barack stood up that day, and spoke words that have stayed with me ever since. He talked about “The world as it is” and “The world as it should be.” And he said that all too often, we accept the distance between the two, and settle for the world as it is – even when it doesn’t reflect our values and aspirations.

Remind anybody of a similar speech, from about 40 years ago?:

“Some men see things as they are and ask ‘why?’ I dream things that never were, and ask ‘why not?'” –Robert F. Kennedy.

No wonder the Kennedys think Obama is like them — he’s been re-cycling their stuff for years.

AZCoyote on August 26, 2008 at 2:31 PM

“The Titanic was built by the White Star line. I leave you to make your own Obama joke.”

I suppose the Typical White Star line built Obama’s sinking ship.

Who gets to the lifeboats first on the HMS Obama?

I picture the biggest donors trampling the women and children.

NoDonkey on August 26, 2008 at 2:31 PM

Hillary will find a way to sabotage Obama so she can run in 2012.
.
.
.
Prediction: Obama loses and Hillary runs against whomever McCani picks for VP. Obama will be over.

DerKrieger on August 26, 2008 at 2:18 PM

If McCain were to announce he’s running for one term and one term only, Hillary’s machine will throw every ounce of its weight into seeing Obama defeated, and Election Night will be a drubbing unlike anything seen since Reagan.

SlimyBill on August 26, 2008 at 2:34 PM

I still really don’t get this Biden thing. I was a young college student back in 1987 and I remember discussing the plagarism scandal with my father. As we (he a life-long Dem and me a very typical college lefty) concluded, there was absolutely no excuse for Biden’s behavior and no possible way that he could ever be president.

Given BO’s existing authenticity problem, the revisiting of the Kinnock speech scandal is going to be painful. Hard to believe he’s thought this one through.

Infidoll on August 26, 2008 at 2:35 PM

Speaking of HOPE….After reading about the new storm that seems likely to chug its way into the Gulf of Mexico, I was reminded of Grayson Capps’ “New Orleans Waltz” video, which was shot in and around New Orleans.

In the song Grayson slams President Bush and begs for people to stop complaining about Mayor Ray Nagin (because he’s done the best that he could). But the interesting and relevant moment comes in the last shot of the video when Grayson walks away, leaving an old building on which someone had spray painted, “HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.” The sad thing is that most in the New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward are undoubtedly marching in Barack’s Hope parade.

flyfisher on August 26, 2008 at 2:47 PM

Corporal Cueball T Carville is dead on with his assessment. Although team O! will ultimately get some bounce from the convention, as usual, they got a dead cat bounce from the announcement that Joey B. Kinnock was his running mate!

Now if McCain would only pick Palin…

it would be:
“Rise PUMA’s, come to the MAV side,,,”

RocketmanBob on August 26, 2008 at 2:47 PM

But the interesting and relevant moment comes in the last shot of the video when Grayson walks away, leaving an old building on which someone had spray painted, “HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.” The sad thing is that most in the New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward are undoubtedly marching in Barack’s Hope parade.

flyfisher on August 26, 2008 at 2:47 PM

gold

sven10077 on August 26, 2008 at 2:48 PM

The speaker said Obama and the other Democratic presidential candidates “have attracted millions of more voters — first-voters voters and many more voters who haven’t voted in a long time.
“Many of them are not even reachable by these pollsters,” Pelosi said. “These are polls of likely voters. Likely voters are people who have voted in the last two elections, and they are likely to vote again. They are not the universe of people who will vote on Nov. 4.”…
“We will own the ground Election Day,” she said.

Well, Denial is the first step. Hopefully (not) she’ll reach the second soon. *snerk*

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on August 26, 2008 at 2:50 PM

Theologian Pelosi is now Pollster Pelosi.

How can one woman do so many jobs, so craptacularly?

I would want to play poker with Pelosi since she’s such a rich dope, but I’m sure she would tell me that her pair of deuces actually beat my three jacks.

NoDonkey on August 26, 2008 at 2:52 PM

I have said it before… I’m afraid Pelosi may have a bit of a point WRT what constitutes a “likely voter”.

DaveS on August 26, 2008 at 2:52 PM

Guess Rush was wrong about the baby bump :p

It’s all the anger she swallowed at the Stepford Finishing School.

Still, if there was an announcement like that, maybe Obama wants to make it himself. She would, afterall, being carrying the child of The One.

reaganaut on August 26, 2008 at 2:53 PM

I have said it before… I’m afraid Pelosi may have a bit of a point WRT what constitutes a “likely voter”.

DaveS on August 26, 2008 at 2:52 PM

“Likely voters” are called that for a reason….

Messiah the Lightworker loses the “1st time not in a longtime” types everytime he appears to be just another politico….

as a Republican allow me to say:

“Thanks for picking Biden Barry”.

sven10077 on August 26, 2008 at 2:55 PM

Give a fool enough rope, and they will hang themselves! Obiden=backwards polling numbers! LMAO! 18 million versus 9,000. HOOT!

Is it possible that the entire DNC is armed with shotguns shooting themselves constantly in the foot? Does anyone feel like they are trapped in a constant SNL skit in watching this? I cannot wait for tonight! This is supremely delicious.

Bad news for us is how much does McCain hate the Base? Will he doom us with some radical VP and Gustav might hit NO during our Convention. Oh well, we are going to enjoy this while it lasts.

freeus on August 26, 2008 at 2:56 PM

“I’m afraid Pelosi may have a bit of a point WRT what constitutes a “likely voter”.”

These same polls overestimated Obama’s voters in the primary, so I think it’s not really possible that they are underestimating them now.

NoDonkey on August 26, 2008 at 2:57 PM

This is a very hopeful change indeed!

ronsfi on August 26, 2008 at 2:58 PM

Speaking of HOPE….After reading about the new storm that seems likely to chug its way into the Gulf of Mexico, I was reminded of Grayson Capps’ “New Orleans Waltz” video, which was shot in and around New Orleans.

In the song Grayson slams President Bush and begs for people to stop complaining about Mayor Ray Nagin (because he’s done the best that he could). But the interesting and relevant moment comes in the last shot of the video when Grayson walks away, leaving an old building on which someone had spray painted, “HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.” The sad thing is that most in the New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward are undoubtedly marching in Barack’s Hope parade.

flyfisher on August 26, 2008 at 2:47 PM

Great catch! Hope and Change are just words. Even the poor in the Lower Ninth Ward know it.

Stayright on August 26, 2008 at 3:02 PM

I love the excuse that Dems are underpolled because they have cell phones which don’t get sampled.

Excuse me for a moment, Im going to talk to my mom with the tin can and string phone attached to my windowsill that came with my RNC membership.

Chuck Schick on August 26, 2008 at 3:04 PM

Ha, ha!

– Nelson Munz

Django on August 26, 2008 at 3:05 PM

It’s very much in Hill’s interest to see Obama get a drubbing. Imagine, if he were to lose in a really close result, what’s to stop him running again in 2012? Especially if he spends the next 4 years getting some very public experience. All of this year’s negatives–Ayers, Wright, abortion votes etc– will be old news by 2012, and the Dems have shown that they are shameless at dusting off shop-soiled proven losers like Biden and presenting them as shiny new.

Fortunata on August 26, 2008 at 3:09 PM

Nancy Pelosi=Village Idiot

Winebabe on August 26, 2008 at 3:10 PM

The speaker said Obama and the other Democratic presidential candidates “have attracted millions of more voters — first-voters voters and many more voters who haven’t voted in a long time.

“Many of them are not even reachable by these pollsters,” Pelosi said.

Dems don’t need evidence or good arguments. Assertion equals reality in the fantasy world they dwell in. What’s scary is, for many Americans, unsubstantiated assertion really is good enough in their minds.

Django on August 26, 2008 at 3:11 PM

The lead is temporary.

Wait until the speech on slavery and the oppression of the black man to make white America feel guilty.

Hypothetical: What would happen if suddenly people began saying, “I’m voting for the white guy” the same way blacks said they voted or would vote for H. Obama because he’s half black?

madmonkphotog on August 26, 2008 at 3:13 PM

The dems already own ‘the ground’ on election day, other people know that ‘ground’ as cemetaries where dead people are raised like Lazarus, to vote for straight democrat tickets.

eaglewingz08 on August 26, 2008 at 3:14 PM

Of course Jimmy Gatorboy Cahville is the most disappointed Demo, his sugar momma isn’t on the ticket! DOY!
Bring me that bucket!

Christine on August 26, 2008 at 3:15 PM

The dems already own ‘the ground’ on election day, other people know that ‘ground’ as cemetaries where dead people are raised like Lazarus, to vote for straight democrat tickets.

eaglewingz08 on August 26, 2008 at 3:14 PM

Good evening, I’m Joe K. Daver and I’d like to talk to you about why I am supporting Barack Hussein Obama for Change We Can Believe in! Need.

As a not so recently deceased corpse from 1885 I have seen a lot of politicians come and go from here on the other side of the River Styx and let me tell you I, for one, have NEVER seen a politician like Senator Obama. Being deceased healthcare issues mean a lot to me, and that is why I am in favor of an America that looks more like what could and should be than what is. Now that young whippersnapper John McCain is making a lot of hay over Obama’s history…let me tell you young living man I know something about history and if Obama is overtly tied in with the founder of the Molly McGuiers well you can’t mine for coal without breaking a few eggs….

sven10077 on August 26, 2008 at 3:21 PM

It’s clear that the Democrat fantasy of being able to sell nothing for four days straight is running into problems. Even Carville knows it.

Nanny Pelosi is still trying to figure out where does ‘natural gas’ come from.

tarpon on August 26, 2008 at 3:25 PM

I wouldn’t put much stock in that poll. It’s probably measuring the initial disappointment of the Hillary voters over the Biden nomination. That effect will fade. Figure on Obama being up by 8 to 10 points by the end of the convention, which the MSM will read as a 10 to 12 point bounce.

PackerBronco on August 26, 2008 at 3:28 PM

Hypothetical: What would happen if suddenly people began saying, “I’m voting for the white guy” the same way blacks said they voted or would vote for H. Obama because he’s half black?

They won’t say it. They will just do it — just like a substantial portion of Hillary voters did during the primaries.

The speaker said Obama and the other Democratic presidential candidates “have attracted millions of more voters — first-voters voters and many more voters who haven’t voted in a long time.

If Obama does not go into the second half of October with a minimum 15% lead among likely voters he is cooked. Half of that 15% lead will be liars who will tell the polsters one thing and do another.

grdred944 on August 26, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Better rerun the “I have to vote for Barack” mantra cause it looks like the numbers are receding with the oceans and the light is going out. Let not your heart be troubled, soon we will begin to heal.

It’s almost enough just to see them sweat and slobber… almost.

Mr_Magoo on August 26, 2008 at 3:42 PM

Nope. Sample error!

Russert made the same point last night and I heard that a lot in my poli sci classes. My wife and I are both mid-20’s and only have cell phones. As a result we’ve never been called about anything political/poll related.

But we’re both voting for McCain, so…

BadgerHawk on August 26, 2008 at 3:43 PM

Imagine what the internal polls are telling Obama. Heh.

Wethal on August 26, 2008 at 1:31 PM

I’d be more concerned about his internal bowels. I think he’s starting to percolate.

Mr_Magoo on August 26, 2008 at 3:45 PM

If Obama would just stain someone’s dress, he’d solidify his base in an instant.

hot-heir on August 26, 2008 at 3:46 PM

Russert made the same point last night and I heard that a lot in my poli sci classes. My wife and I are both mid-20’s and only have cell phones. As a result we’ve never been called about anything political/poll related.

But we’re both voting for McCain, so…

BadgerHawk on August 26, 2008 at 3:43 PM

who was the channel?

Russert is dead.

sven10077 on August 26, 2008 at 3:48 PM

DNC fade to black:

“It was an early morning yesterday
I was up before the dawn
And I really have enjoyed my stay
But I must be moving on

“Like a king without a castle
Like a queen without a throne
I’m an early morning lover
And I must be moving on

“Now I believe in what you say
Is the undisputed truth
But I have to have things my own way
To keep me in my youth

“Like a ship without an anchor
Like a slave without a chain
Just the thought of those sweet ladies
Sends a shiver through my veins

“And I will go on shining
Shining like brand new
I’ll never look behind me
My troubles will be few”

Goodbye Stranger (Supertramp)

Mr_Magoo on August 26, 2008 at 3:49 PM

The cell phone argument was made during Kerry’s loss in 2004 – how’d that work out?

I would be surprised if the pollsters hadn’t done anything to compensate for it.

NoDonkey on August 26, 2008 at 4:05 PM

Prediction: Obama loses and Hillary runs against whomever McCani picks for VP. Obama will be over.

DerKrieger

I’ve always thought that the best thing for O’bama to do if he does lose in 2008 is to move back to his old “home state” of Hawaii and eventually succeed aging Democrat Senator Dan Inouye, who is almost as old as Robert Byrd and has been representing poi-land since Teddy Kennedy’s brother was President. It’s the perfect job for him.

Del Dolemonte on August 26, 2008 at 4:12 PM

Russert made the same point last night and I heard that a lot in my poli sci classes. My wife and I are both mid-20’s and only have cell phones. As a result we’ve never been called about anything political/poll related.

But we’re both voting for McCain, so…

BadgerHawk on August 26, 2008 at 3:43 PM

I want in on this seance. Can we invite Reagan?

hot-heir on August 26, 2008 at 4:14 PM

Ultimately I think it works in his favor to finally be behind once in this poll, now the meme about being presumptuous won’t be able to carry through the rest of the election. So long as he can regain a lead in either tomorrow’s or the day after’s polling that is, otherwise it might be a real trend.

Typhonsentra on August 26, 2008 at 4:44 PM

In 2004 the election was “stolen” because the polls couldn’t possibly have been wrong.
.
In 2008 Obama is ahead because the polls couldn’t possibly be right.
.
How ironic.

IRonnie on August 26, 2008 at 5:14 PM

I wonder if people are starting to think of Obama as a polarizing rather than unifying agent? Maybe they are tired of all the angst.

Terrye on August 26, 2008 at 5:22 PM

Russert is dead.

sven10077 on August 26, 2008 at 3:48 PM

His son, dumbsmartass.

BadgerHawk on August 26, 2008 at 5:46 PM

They are not the universe of people who will vote on Nov. 4.”…

That’s right. Obama probably has convicted felons, illegal aliens, basement dwellers, and other assorted riff-raff in his camp. All they need to do is figure out how to get them to the polls… multiple times.

CliffHanger on August 26, 2008 at 5:58 PM

Waiting for Joe Biden’s remarks-

“Why are you talking to me about polls? Those people from Poland are even more stupid than the Indians at 7-11! I know that I have a higher IQ that pollacks.”

Damiano on August 26, 2008 at 6:04 PM

As the week goes by and more folks see O’BamBam hangin’ with the likes of Pelosi, Dean and Biden our boy McCain will be up by 10. McCain will actually get a nice bump from the Democrat’s convention.

Griz on August 26, 2008 at 8:53 PM

Nancy’s right. I’m a Pole and I underestimate him.

oakpack on August 26, 2008 at 9:23 PM

CliffHanger on August 26, 2008 at 5:58 PM:

Obama probably has convicted felons, illegal aliens, basement dwellers, and other assorted riff-raff in his camp. All they need to do is figure out how to get them to the polls… multiple times.

Don’t forget the Deceased-Americans.

JimC on August 27, 2008 at 2:20 AM

Oh my, I am so hoping for a Hillary/Palin catfight of the century in 2012 if McCain picks Sarah and wins in 2008.

Life is good. We guys can sit back and enjoy as they fight for the MAN Vote. Yes!

until we wake up and one of them takes office. :)

Sapwolf on August 27, 2008 at 3:07 AM