CNN poll says — dead even

posted at 7:00 am on August 25, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

And it comes after Joe Biden’s addition to the Democratic ticket, too. CNN’s latest polling shows that Barack Obama has lost a seven-point lead since July — and that’s among adults, not registered voters or likely voters.  What happened?

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominees, with an equal amount supporting his Republican opponent, McCain.

“This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain.” …

Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters — registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee — are now backing Obama. That’s down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they’ll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.

The final choice of Biden seems to have dispirited the Clinton die-hards.  CNN’s internals say that Biden himself isn’t the issue, although he’s hardly generating enthusiasm, either.  Instead, Obama’s selection means that they have to face that Hillary won’t be on the ticket in any capacity.  The fact that Obama never even bothered to vet Hillary doesn’t help, either.

Now every major poll shows Obama losing his lead, and at least one — Zogby — shows McCain leading.  Zogby polled likely voters, though, which CNN did not.  They polled “adults”, normally the most sympathetic sampling for Democrats.  If Obama can’t show a lead with this sample, the Zogby poll looks less like an outlier and more like an accurate diagnosis of how voters see the race.

Obama needs a big bounce from the convention, but he only has hours to generate it.  John McCain will announce his running-mate the day after Obama’s acceptance speech and will own the weekend news cycle, especially since he’s very unlikely to botch that rollout as Obama did.  The Democrats find themselves in a tight corner, and with fewer allies every day.


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And CNN usually polls 40% or more Democrats, too. McCain’s looking good.

fossten on August 25, 2008 at 7:03 AM

Still a ways to go, but I feel a momentum shift taking hold.

p40tiger on August 25, 2008 at 7:07 AM

Only way we can snatch defeat from victory is nominating Jeb Bush for veep.

sven10077 on August 25, 2008 at 7:07 AM

Real Clear Politics flipped back the electoral (no toss ups) map back to Obama and Kristol is in the New York Times telling McCain to choose Lieberman.
Some liberal is on liberal MSNBC blaming the liberal media for “drooling over Obama” and that’s why he’s not ahead in the liberal polls.

Weird times.

Marcus on August 25, 2008 at 7:07 AM

Good morning Ed,

I’m listening to you weekend shows now and wanted to send you Christmas card over the Biden selection. Great show.

I’d wish you a great week, but that’s already a given. Look forward to the shows during the week.

Canadian Infidel

Canadian Infidel on August 25, 2008 at 7:10 AM

“Obama’s been over-sold. We’ve made our expectations too high for him.”

-liberal on MSNBC continuing his theory Obama has been “smothered” by too much liberal media love. It’s Olbermann’s fault!

Marcus on August 25, 2008 at 7:14 AM

I believe that between the two of them, they have locked up the plagiarism vote.

golfer1 on August 25, 2008 at 7:17 AM

WooHoo! Just as I’ve been thinking for awhile now :-D Thanks, Allah, for a great way to start the day.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on August 25, 2008 at 7:18 AM

Real Clear Politics flipped back the electoral (no toss ups) map back to Obama and Kristol is in the New York Times telling McCain to choose Lieberman.
Some liberal is on liberal MSNBC blaming the liberal media for “drooling over Obama” and that’s why he’s not ahead in the liberal polls.

Weird times.

Marcus on August 25, 2008 at 7:07 AM

RCP is working overtime to be “the smartest guys in the room” and their bread is still buttered bt Time Magazine….

I trust them as much as Mullah Zogby these days.

sven10077 on August 25, 2008 at 7:19 AM

Pray for a McGovernesque rout in November. It will tell the Dems and the world that America is not going lightly into the great European-Socialist-Defeatest void.

Rod on August 25, 2008 at 7:19 AM

Sorry, meant to thank Ed!

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on August 25, 2008 at 7:19 AM

Obama needs a big bounce from the convention, but he only has hours to generate it. John McCain will announce his running-mate the day after Obama’s acceptance speech and will own the weekend news cycle, especially since he’s very unlikely to botch that rollout as Obama did. The Democrats find themselves in a tight corner, and with fewer allies every day.

Oh c’mon. Do you really think the coverage of McCain will outshine the “chosen one?” The msm gave obama more coverage when he was on vacation in Hawaii than they did McCain…

rbb on August 25, 2008 at 7:20 AM

What happened? russia invasion, BHO flip flops, moves to the center, BHO lack of intelligence experience is starting to be seen. McCain has been doing less populism speeches and more national security speeches. Pelosi is also IMO hurting BHO. People understand that if BHO wins then Pelosi and Reid will have unlimited power. I think that scares the Americian people. I know it scares me.

Energy plan also is hurting BHO.

unseen on August 25, 2008 at 7:22 AM

Oh c’mon.

I agree. The only way McCain “will own” the weekend news cycle is the media tearing apart whomever he chose. They’ve already counted the number of houses for McCain/Romney.

Marcus on August 25, 2008 at 7:25 AM

Oh ya,CNN’s poll,Liberals playing fast and
loose with their poll numbers!

I hope CNN added Obama’s 8 other states in
the poll numbers!

And I hear Hillary is flippinzee/flopponzee
on her delegates,I guess she’s back tracking
on releasing them,butta boom butta bing!haha.

canopfor on August 25, 2008 at 7:25 AM

I have been seeing signs that the B.O. Lovefest is starting to lose steam, except for the creatures of Hollyweird who still feel he is sent from whatever the gods that Barbara Streisand tell them to pay homage to or wherever. I think as more and more honest-to-goodness thinking people take a good long hard look at this Chicago Democratic Machine-bred politician and what he really stands for, his numbers are going to get lower and lower.

A really good place to start is to look at all the Hope and Change he has brought to Illinois in the time he has served as U.S. Senator. Here is a hint: he hasn’t brought any.

pilamaye on August 25, 2008 at 7:32 AM

A really good place to start is to look at all the Hope and Change he has brought to Illinois in the time he has served as U.S. Senator. Here is a hint: he hasn’t brought any.

pilamaye on August 25, 2008 at 7:32 AM

or the fact that back when Messiah the Lightworker was merely a Rabbi(ie ‘community organizer’)he did not do a very good job of actually um uh u, y’know lifting his chosen areas of operations out of uh um hum poverty…..

If in deference to Molly Ivins Dubya is all Hat and no cattle, Barry is all crap and little nitrate….

sven10077 on August 25, 2008 at 7:35 AM

Wow! If CNN is showing a dead heat, you know BO must be hurting.

guitarplayer on August 25, 2008 at 7:38 AM

Obama can’t get even must a “dead cat” bounce?

I thought this was supposed to be a sea-change year, where Republicans would be cast into the out darkness for untold generations?

Yes. It must be the race thing. What other explanation can there be … after all, no less an authority than the Senator from Delaware said that Obama was clean. And articulate.

So he has that going for him.

tryptic on August 25, 2008 at 7:41 AM

I’m happy it didn’t happen, but Obama made a big blunder in not selecting Hillary although I understand his rationale. That would have been the combination the Dems needed to possibly win the election.

“Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain”.

iamsaved on August 25, 2008 at 7:44 AM

This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month

I just love CNN’s concise analysis.

davidk on August 25, 2008 at 7:47 AM

I just love CNN’s concise analysis.

davidk on August 25, 2008 at 7:47 AM

This just in water’s wet….

sven10077 on August 25, 2008 at 7:49 AM

Yeah, but what about the German vote?

Pablo on August 25, 2008 at 7:53 AM

Yeah, but what about the German vote?

Pablo on August 25, 2008 at 7:53 AM

or the other 6 new states?

sven10077 on August 25, 2008 at 7:56 AM

MSNBC still has BO up by 3 points. I think that if they ever showed a tie (let alone McCain leading), it would cause poor Chris Matthews’ head to implode.

guitarplayer on August 25, 2008 at 7:57 AM

“Obama’s been over-sold. We’ve made our expectations too high for him.”

Marcus on August 25, 2008 at 7:14 AM

Here in Massachusetts, the MSM didn’t realize until after he was elected that Deval Patrick’s campaign slogan of “Yes We Can!” never really stated the “what” it was that would be accomplished if he were elected. They finally came to realize that it meant little more than “yes, we can elect him” and nothing more.

For Patrick the honeymoon is over and the MSM is treating him like any other promise-nothing-do-nothing politician.

Obama’s “Change We Can Believe In.” is no different. It means absolutely nothing and promises nothing other than “elect me.”

Thankfully, though, there is a difference between Obama and Patrick: the public is finally catching on to the emptiness of his campaign before he’s actually elected.

Rod on August 25, 2008 at 7:59 AM

The ball will soon be in McCain’s court and when it is he needs a slam dunk VP choice to break the Dem’s bounce. John Bolton maybe?

Browncoatone on August 25, 2008 at 8:01 AM

Yeah, but what about the German vote?

Pablo on August 25, 2008 at 7:53 AM

or the other 6 new states?

sven10077 on August 25, 2008 at 7:56 AM

Isn’t that 7 new states? The 57 unites states?

NoFanofLibs on August 25, 2008 at 8:10 AM

A strong, conservative veep pick could turn this election into a massive landslide, but if McCain drinks his Dr Jekyll potion, turns into The Maverick and picks a pro-choice moderate, we could have a real nail-biter.

pugwriter on August 25, 2008 at 8:13 AM

Well, as far as party unity goes, The Chicago Sun Times is reporting this morning that Illinois State Senate President and B.O. mentor Emil Jones called Chicago political consultant and Hillary Climton supporter Delmarie Cobb an “Uncle Tom” for hetr continuing to support Clinton. Jones has since denied he called Ms Cobb this, but anyone who knows Emil Jones and his track record can pretty much figure Ms Cobb is telling the truth. That being the case, this may be just a taste of what may be coming up later this week.

pilamaye on August 25, 2008 at 8:16 AM

it would cause poor Chris Matthews’ head to implode.
guitarplayer on August 25, 2008 at 7:57 AM

Or, another part…

bikermailman on August 25, 2008 at 8:19 AM

Wait, I think it probably did already….

/eewwwwwwwww

bikermailman on August 25, 2008 at 8:19 AM

While I’ve come around to voting for McCain, aided by his impressive showing at Saddleback, I am waiting to see who he chooses for VP before volunteering any time with the local campaign. Since I live in South Florida, it has been heartening to see McCain bumper stickers on lots of cars, but I just hope he doesn’t blow all of this good momentum. Joe Lieberman would be great in a cabinet position, i.e. Homeland Security, but I don’t understand why a conservative like Bill Kristol is pushing him for VP. The same is true of Ridge, who’s not only a RINO, but dull as dishwater. And for better or for worse, if McCain is trying to “distance” himself from President Bush, why choose Ridge?

I’m hoping for Palin, Romney or Kasich.

Dariaanne on August 25, 2008 at 8:20 AM

This just shows the absurdity of the hype surrounding the VP pick. The VP pick now only goes to prevent the base from leaving. Just don’t pick a ‘Quayle” is the new standard.

steveyahoo on August 25, 2008 at 8:24 AM

McCain-O-Mentum!

rightallthetime on August 25, 2008 at 8:31 AM

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominees, with an equal amount supporting his Republican opponent, McCain.

Oh, I see.

carbon_footprint on August 25, 2008 at 8:31 AM

No bump for Biden pick…no surprise. Just another example of BO’s failing leadership and poor judgement.

jbh45 on August 25, 2008 at 8:38 AM

I just noticed something interesting…

CNN has apparently ditched their polling comparison on their politics home page. I’m not sure when this happened, but as of a few minutes ago, the head to head graph with Obama/McCain pictures (usually prominently displayed in the center of the page) is gone.

I guess now that they can’t fudge Obama being ahead anymore, they decided not to show anything.

Damiano on August 25, 2008 at 8:43 AM

. . . and another poll said McCain was 5 points ahead . . . and another poll said that Obama was 2 points ahead . . . etc., etc., etc. These media polls are mathematical garbage and have the predictive value of a carnival fortune teller.

rplat on August 25, 2008 at 8:43 AM

It’s a little too early to lend that much creedence to polling on The One’s uninspiring veep pick. It is telling that he can’t pull better national numbers but they don’t care about national numbers, they only care about Ohio, VA, PA, CO and Michigan. The rest of the states are pretty much set.
Remember, the only reason Kerry isn’t running for a second term is a few hundred thousand voters in Ohio were too stupid to vote for him.

His numbers will be higher right before the Repub convention and we’ll get nonstop coverage of that even though it’ll be just as useless.

newbee on August 25, 2008 at 8:50 AM

A month from now, the strain of Obama having Biden as a drag on the ticket will start to show-he might start smoking in public again.
Obama should have picked a Governor for Veep, one with actual administrative instead of debate experience. Going one step back, if the Dems had chosen a Governor instead of a Senator,
they could probably have beaten McCain handily.
I expect a 20 point lead for McCain in most unbiased polls within a month, especially if he does a better job than Obama at choosing a Veep.

Doug on August 25, 2008 at 9:05 AM

There is no doubt that McCain has pushed this race to even. Every poll measured against itself has McCain coming up and Obama falling. The Obama camp expected to be ahead by 6-8pts going into there convention. Reality has set in. if Obama can’t unify the DEMS behind him he won’t win.

Howard Cosell on August 25, 2008 at 9:07 AM

McCain is up 5 in New Mexico

PRESIDENT – NEW MEXICO (Mason-Dixon)
John McCain (R) 45%
Barack Obama (D) 41%

apparently Barr is pulling 11% in New Hampshire, or McCain would be up there too.

jp on August 25, 2008 at 9:19 AM

Wooo Hoooo

As Michelle Obama said….I’m feelin’ proud of my country. ha…..even though it’s really difficult to believe ANY polling.
I think the media WANTS a horserace…if Obama were too far ahead….ratings would fall….

bridgetown on August 25, 2008 at 9:23 AM

The first of many dumb questions from a newly registered Englishman and long-time fan of this site:

What’s a PUMA? (referenced in the headlines link for this post).

Anyway, the comments on the CNN story are a hoot – Obamaniacs turning on Hillary supporters and CNN with equal savagery.

Here’s the first one, unedited:

just what cnn wanted to report.anything negative on Obama cnn likes.I do not understand why not report negatives on McCain there are
out their if you would work as hard on McCain the American people
would be shocked.Please something positive on Obama there is plenty ou there in America.Thanks in advance.

I’m thinking that maybe the commenter is a product of Obama and Ayers’ failed attempts to socialize reform the Chicago schools system.

It goes downhill from there.

EnglishMike on August 25, 2008 at 9:30 AM

Anderson Cooper looked like his boytoy had gone straight when he announced the results of this poll last night.

Great moments in sports.

rockmom on August 25, 2008 at 9:39 AM

What I love is that it is always “presumptive Democratic presidential nominee” for Obama, and the Nominee for McCain.

Presumptive because there is that thought in the back of everyones mind, but now, very likely he will be.

WoosterOh on August 25, 2008 at 9:43 AM

What happened? russia invasion, BHO flip flops, moves to the center, BHO lack of intelligence experience is starting to be seen. McCain has been doing less populism speeches and more national security speeches. Pelosi is also IMO hurting BHO. People understand that if BHO wins then Pelosi and Reid will have unlimited power. I think that scares the Americian people. I know it scares me.

Energy plan also is hurting BHO.

unseen on August 25, 2008 at 7:22 AM

All that is true, but I also think that the recent drop in gas prices plus the Olympics have a lot of Americans feeling better about America than they did a few months ago. McCain’s “Country First” ad theme tied right in with the Olympics as millions of Americans cheered on their countrymen, and watched famous athletes like Kobe Bryant and Kerry Walsh gushing about how great their country is.

In addition, Geoge Bush has become “the man who wasn’t there.” Obama is flailing wildy at an invisible man and starting to look stupid doing it. This election is about him and John McCain, period. And that ain’t good for him.

rockmom on August 25, 2008 at 9:45 AM

Whats a PUMA?

EnglishMike on August 25, 2008 at 9:30 AM

Party Unity My @SS

Hilliary supporters that are not for party unity because of how Hilliary was treated.

WoosterOh on August 25, 2008 at 9:47 AM

EnglishMike

P.U.M.A. means Party Unity My Arse as used by Hillary Supporters. They are not seduced by the Obamanation and are ready to take their fight for their candidate to the floor of the Convention if need be.

It is also a pun referencing cougars, a demographic term used in America for the aggrieved women in their 40s and older (soccer moms) who strongly supported Sen. Hillary Clinton’s bid for the Presidency and/or support her the Vice Presidency as a default position.

eaglewingz08 on August 25, 2008 at 9:53 AM

Thanks guys.

I prefer @ss – arse sounds a bit too quaint.

EnglishMike on August 25, 2008 at 9:59 AM

This whole thing is playing nicely into McCains hand.
I think more and more people are going to feel that Obama is too risky to take a flyer on in turbulent times given his left-wing policies.

jjshaka on August 25, 2008 at 10:05 AM

Maybe the blogs will have more influence for this election cycle for the RCP and the repubs and McCain.

Necromancer on August 25, 2008 at 10:30 AM

McCain deserves some of the credit for the poll numbers. The more I watch him the more he seems like a very masterful and stealthy politician (without seeming like it).

danjrussell on August 25, 2008 at 12:52 PM

Mav should pick Palin and give the nutroots something to really wring their hands about…

RocketmanBob on August 25, 2008 at 1:15 PM

McCain deserves some of the credit for the poll numbers. The more I watch him the more he seems like a very masterful and stealthy politician (without seeming like it).

danjrussell on August 25, 2008 at 12:52 PM

Well he does have experience in this sort of thing. Can Obama say the same?

Browncoatone on August 25, 2008 at 2:00 PM