Byron York: Looks like it’s down to Lieberman and Pawlenty
posted at 9:14 pm on August 21, 2008 by Allahpundit
I’ve been talking to more people about the veep thing, and the picture I get is this: McCain is sitting in front of a console with a switch with two positions: GAMBLE and PLAY IT SAFE. If he moves the switch to GAMBLE, he picks Lieberman…
Still, Romney is an unquantifiable here. I mentioned yesterday that if McCain were to pick Ridge, “it will be because he likes him personally and believes Ridge can win Pennsylvania.” Now, it’s not clear to me that McCain will make the choice based on whether a veep could carry a particular state, but if he did, I’ve been told, there is a feeling that Romney has a pretty good argument to make that choosing him would help quite a bit in Nevada and Colorado, with their significant Mormon populations.
A pro-choice Republican group is releasing a poll tomorrow showing that nearly 70 percent of party members don’t regard abortion as a litmus test for VP and only 1 in 10 say they’d be less likely to vote for McCain if he goes pro-choice with the pick. Um, given the fact that the race is within the margin of error, shouldn’t the headline there be that a potentially game-changing minority would be less likely to vote for him? Did I miss a national poll somewhere showing McCain with a 15-point lead over Obama, sufficient to justify kissing off a double-digit swath of the base? One of the things people don’t seem to understand about the Lieberman rumors is that it’s not just about abortion, which, after all, is an issue over which the president has little control, let alone the vice-president. It has to do with Maverick prioritizing his own mavericky leanings over the wishes of the base yet again, even though they’ve forgiven him virtually everything else he’s ever done to antagonize them — amnesty, CFR, the gang of 14 — in the interests of defeating Obama. If, between Jindal, Palin, Pawlenty, and Romney, he can’t find a talented VP in his own party who’s at least square on the one issue above all that matters to social cons, how can they trust him? They’re not asking for a major concession here. He should be able to make it.
Beyond that, is there some strong pro-Lieberman contingent out there among independents? I assume McCain thinks Joementum would appeal to Hillary supporters, which may be true or may not be (I haven’t seen any poll measuring the extent to which their constituencies overlap), but the issue isn’t whether Lieberman would bring in some Clintonites. It’s whether he’d bring in more in swing states than McCain would lose among the base in red states. The fact that McCain’s considering him makes me wonder if he doesn’t suspect his momentary parity with Obama is fleeting and that he needs, as York says, to do something dramatic to bust through the 45 percent ceiling he’s been stuck at. Which, in turn, makes me wonder if Pawlenty’s not the big winner from the Saddleback forum the other night: The going theory is that McCain’s home run there reassured social cons enough to let him get away with a pro-choice VP, but he may have done so well that he now thinks he can bust 45 percent without any extra help from the veep (especially with the debates coming up), which allows a safe choice instead of the gamble.
Meanwhile, The One has reportedly been wrestling with a gamble/play it safe scenario himself. Stephanopoulos thinks the pick could be announced … on Friday night?
Blowback
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I saved this from the other day as reference material. Accurate?
Connie on August 21, 2008 at 10:20 PM
Wouldn’t be prudent.
Reagan wasn’t a democrat when he ran for President though.
MB4 on August 21, 2008 at 10:21 PM
Spanish is one thing…but do we have to learn German too?
sulla on August 21, 2008 at 10:21 PM
The CNN- Obama link is interesting reading, if just for the comments. I came away thinking are Rush and Sean and others REALLY sure he won’t choose Hillary?
They’re a noisy bunch for sure on message boards (other than HuffPo and Kos where I think they’re not allowed). She could be the shock his cardiac arrest campaign is needing, and he may capitulate as long as he gets to ride in the front I think. Better than not being in the car at all.
Marcus on August 21, 2008 at 10:23 PM
He’s not very conservative, but look at who he’d be running with. His stances on the global warming sham and ANWR are basically identical to McCain’s. Both are (for the most part) fiscally conservative, with Pawlenty better on illegal immigration than McCain.
I’d like to see a solid conservative (and no, Mitt isn’t either) as the VP pick, but I don’t see McCain picking someone with significantly different political views.
Hollowpoint on August 21, 2008 at 10:25 PM
Only that one German word. All the rest will be in Spanish.
MB4 on August 21, 2008 at 10:25 PM
McCain is not a Democrat either, in fact so far as I know he never has been one. And Lieberman is not a Democrat either, just ask any Democrat.
I think it would be a bad idea to pick Lieberman. I like and respect him, but there are other jobs for him. I have no idea if Byron York knows what he is talking about or not, but I think it might be a good idea to just kind of wait and see what happens before we attack.
Terrye on August 21, 2008 at 10:25 PM
Well he sure seems to play one on TV.
MB4 on August 21, 2008 at 10:27 PM
I am, ahem, unlucky to live in Brad Miller’s district.
SouthernGent on August 21, 2008 at 10:27 PM
How about Charlie Crist? He’s a level headed Governor in good standing.
SoulGlo on August 21, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Can we PLEASE get a President who looks for the best, brightest and most qualified people for positions rather than rewarding the loyalty of their friends and sycophants?
EJDolbow on August 21, 2008 at 10:28 PM
MB4:
That is ridiculous. Just because you don’t like the guy does not make him a Democrat. Last time I looked you don’t get to call those shots. You do not get to decide who is and is not a Republican.
Left up to you the number of people who could actually be called Republicans would only amount to about 5% of the population. And you could kiss the White House goodbye forever.
Terrye on August 21, 2008 at 10:30 PM
In good standing with whom?
Crist’s personal life could be a serious liabilty.
EJDolbow on August 21, 2008 at 10:30 PM
But schadenfreude is such a great word. Like the feeling that overcame me when Algore won the popular vote bu lost to Bush–Schadenfreude.
BryanS on August 21, 2008 at 10:31 PM
I like Joe, but my favorite Dem will always be Zell Miller.
eanax on August 21, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Part of politics is the acquisition and wielding of power. For some politicans, that’s all it is. For others, that’s part of it. So, no.
JiangxiDad on August 21, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Most of the things you can list, that look bad on Pawlenty’s legislative record, are because he supported an unfortunate (blocking) legislation in place of something totally disastrous–legislation that the Democrats were trying to push down Minnesota’s throat. Note that Pawlenty has about 70 vetoes under his belt too, only one overridden. When you’re the Republican Governor of a bluish state, sometimes you actually have to choose flawed over broken. Them’s the choices.
RBMN on August 21, 2008 at 10:34 PM
RBMN:
True.
Terrye on August 21, 2008 at 10:35 PM
You just made JetBoy’s day.
sulla on August 21, 2008 at 10:37 PM
McCain/Kennedy
McCain/Feingold
McCain/Lieberman
Nancy Pelosi is an effective leader and an “inspiration to millions.
- John McCain
I respect Speaker Pelosi. I think she’s one of the great American success stories.
- John McCain
We talk about Hillary Clinton and her inspiration to millions of Americans. Speaker Pelosi has been an inspiration as well” in a role that is in many ways more powerful than the president.
- John McCain
I again want to emphasize my respect for the former vice president’s leadership on this issue [Global Warming] and his continuous leadership.
- John McCain
Need I go on? Of course not. I rest my case. McCain is guilty as charged on all counts.
MB4 on August 21, 2008 at 10:44 PM
OK, we can leave that in too, but not many exceptions left as to what has to be in Spanish in another generation in America del Norte.
MB4 on August 21, 2008 at 10:46 PM
Charlie Crist? You have got to be kidding me. He looks like a week old corpse with a bad mortician’s makeup job.
MB4 on August 21, 2008 at 10:48 PM
Here’s Lieberman’s page at the On the Issues site.
It contains such info as:
There’s also this little problem:
INC on August 21, 2008 at 10:56 PM
MB4:
Oh My God, he said he respected Nancy Pelosi???
The man has been in the Senate a long time, he has worked with Democrats over the years on several bills. Believe it or not, most Americans actually believe that we send people to the Senate to work on bipartisan bills for the people of the United States. They do not think it is or should be all about partisan zero sum politics where everyone just spits in everyone else’s eye.
You know something? Kennedy has worked on a lot of bills with Republicans, does that make him one?
You do not even support the war anymore, do you think that most Republicans would agree with that? I don’t.
The point is that if social conservatives or immigration hardliners or whoever had gotten behind someone and supported him, then they might not be complaining today. But they didn’t, they just whined about everyone and then when McCain won they got mad. That is not anyone else’s fault. No one stopped them from voting, or giving money or anything else. They did not get behind Fred! like so many on the internet were sure they would. They did not rally around Romney until it was way too late. They did not like Huckabee, but he actually came in second.
And my guess is that they will do the same thing next time. They will squabble among themselves, let someone else pick the nominee and then complain about the choice.
I would have supported the nominee, even if it had not been McCain.
Terrye on August 21, 2008 at 10:57 PM
Charlie Crist?
Have to agree with EJDolbow on August 21, 2008 at 10:30 PM
obladioblada on August 21, 2008 at 10:58 PM
What outstanding reasons not to vote for McEvil Old Man McTraitor in the republican primaries.
I sure hope that your efforts fail, and McCain is elected. We’ll have at least four years of you and the all democrats in very foul moods. This would make me so very happy.
wise_man on August 21, 2008 at 10:58 PM
As far as Crist goes, I have yet to see a self-identified conservative Floridian comment favorably on the web about Crist and think he’d be great as Veep.
INC on August 21, 2008 at 10:58 PM
I hate to say it……….he needs Romney now.
Not only can he get the mormon vote out west, buthe might push Michigan over. If Michigan swings, that could also help a swing in neighboring Minnesota where the convention is being held. Wins in those to states would guarantee McCain’s victory, and Romney is his best bet for that.
I also think Romney is a lot more capable of hitting the stump in rural PA and such than Pawlenty or Liebs. He’s also a much better attack dog than either of the two.
Couple that with Romney’s bank, network, and economic skills and he’d be a huge asset.
eski502 on August 21, 2008 at 11:01 PM
I will put my 2 cents in here…
WTF!?!?!?? They, by definition, are definitely not conservative, and I was under the impression that the republican party was the party for conservatives.
Sure the RINO party is out there, but there is no way I accept those into my party! GO AWAY!
This is the reason to put together a true conservative party and get out of the GOP.
lsutiger on August 21, 2008 at 11:03 PM
I’m scratching my head over this. There’s been a lot of people who’ve been saying they’re not voting for McCain and not just those who make a point of saying they’re pro-life.
INC on August 21, 2008 at 11:06 PM
clarence thomas
custer on August 21, 2008 at 11:08 PM
INC:
John McCain has voted with his party 88.3% of the time and yet a lot of people do not think he is a Republican.
Terrye on August 21, 2008 at 11:09 PM
lsutiger:
There are pro life and pro choice people in both parties. It just depends on whether or not you are one issue. My Congressman is Brad Ellsworth, blue dog Democrat and he is prolife. Rudy is prochoice.
Terrye on August 21, 2008 at 11:11 PM
McCain has take a few well deserved hits on economic matters and a *load that weren’t deserved. I think that Romney would be very good for him. I really wish the role of VP could be expanded, and McCain would be able to make Romney point man on the economy or something to that effect. Even if he just made it his mission to travel, observe and speak on positive and encouraging ‘glass is half full’ types of messages. That and offer solutions. Hopefully, McCain learned his lesson with the unfortunate comments from Graham that supplied so much material for the left to use against McCain.
wise_man on August 21, 2008 at 11:11 PM
That’s kind of a misrepresentation of the perfect storm that got McCain the nomination.
There were a number of tipping events-the two that stand out to me were Joe “squish” McQuaid of the Manchester Union-Leader endorsing McCain in NH and McCain coming to Florida and playing the veteran card to all the military and downplaying his illegal immigration stance. The make-up of the early primaries was a huge factor–NH is a semi-closed primary and SC is an open primary. Without that I daresay we wouldn’t be talking about McCain as the nominee.
INC on August 21, 2008 at 11:12 PM
My much bleeding heart HR director was leaning toward McCain today. That may be a bad thing, but over the two evils (a oversaid statement – I do not believe McCain to be evil), anything is better than an Obama white house.
lsutiger on August 21, 2008 at 11:14 PM
Terrye, most people acknowledge McCain has the Republican designation after his name. The problem is that at crucial points they’ve been upset he didn’t have the Conservative designation in his thinking.
INC on August 21, 2008 at 11:14 PM
Let me include myself in the “they”.
INC on August 21, 2008 at 11:16 PM
you realize at the time mccain said that the house repubs were in a knock down drag out w/ pelosi over multiple issues? he wasnt asked directly, he threw it in as part of an answer. it wasnt necessary and it cuts the legs out from under our congressmen. also his “broken” ad, where he says he’ll “battle big oil”, comes out while repubs are skipping the break and on the house floor daily calling for a vote on drilling. and john didnt find time to stop in and offer support. why should any repub support him when all you get are stabs in the back? as for joe for veep, no, no fucking way! too many good people have worked way too hard for the republican party for him to do that. this is the kind of thing that causes people to leave, just stay home or even form a 3rd party. and it will be john mccain’s fault cause he wouldnt support the party he supposedly is part of.
chasdal on August 21, 2008 at 11:20 PM
We managed to get his amnesty plan defeated!
dominigan on August 21, 2008 at 11:21 PM
If he picks Lieberman, the convention should usurp that choice and pick Romney. What could McCain do about it. In the distant past, the guy who came in 2nd became the VP candidate. So why should it be any different today.
Paul-Cincy on August 21, 2008 at 11:23 PM
The problem with a Lieberman or Ridge VP pick is that it sends a clear message to the base (particularly social conservatives) that McCain doesn’t care what we think. That’s the wrong message to be sending to a group of people who already feel like we’re having to hold our noses to vote for him because of his stances on CFR and shamnesty.
He said the other night at Saddleback that he believed that life began at conception, and that his administration would have pro-life policies, and be a pro-life administration. How does picking a pro-choice VP square with those statements?
If McCain truly believes what he said the other night at the Saddleback forum, then picking a pro-choice VP should be as unthinkable as picking a cut and run on the war VP.
Jim C
JimC99 on August 21, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Actually, I think you need to look a little deeper…
So, considering the 100 senators, of which just over half are Democrats, McCain came in 47th place as a conservative. Yeah… 47th place… less than a handful of points away from being rated a Democrat. And I should feel all warm and fuzzy that he’ll represent my conservative beliefs…?
dominigan on August 21, 2008 at 11:36 PM
It’s not that people don’t think he’s actually a Republican (it’s apparent that MB4′s 10:27 comment was snarky hyperbole for rhetorical effect), it’s that McCain has spent the better part of the last 8 years building his “Maverick” persona with the help of an all-too-willing media corps.
The general feeling of the guy is based on his public image over Bush’s terms — namely, that he was the one leading the (for lack of a better term) insurrection(s) in the Senate Repub. ranks, often on issues and/or policies that were stridantly supported by the Republican/Conservative base. His decisions to cross party lines to oppose issues important to the Republican base have rightly left many in that base cool to and wary of McCain.
Harpazo on August 21, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Well said
Harpazo on August 21, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Wasting your breath.
I’ve laid the same information out for the McCainiacs several times, even going into greater detail and specifics. It is ignored.
If you include the House, there are actually 9 (if I remember correctly… could be just 7 or 8) DEMOCRATS that have HIGHER ACU ratings (in a few specific years)than McCain, and two Dem Reps that have higher lifetime ACU averages.
I’ve always had an issue with the ACU ratings anyway… everything is given equal weight, regardless of importance. For instance, if you not only vote for, but actually write and sponsor a law that is absolutely unconstitutional… (like say…, hmmm, maybe… McCain-Feingold)… you can offset it by voting against a bill to give a thousand dollar grant to some crappy ‘artist’ to do a display in the Hart Senate Office Building. It’s all same-same to the ACU.
LegendHasIt on August 21, 2008 at 11:59 PM
Senators are there to represent the states. People elect Representatives to the House to represent them (hense their title!). Welcome to Civics 101… and you just failed your first test.
Name those bills.
Seems like a baseless accusation. While you may try to scare us by claiming that Obama will pull out and place our military in harm… I bet he would flip-flop at the earliest opportunity… he does on most other issues, and has already reversed many of his statements on what he would do in Iraq.
There is some truth here. We did get behind people… but it was spread out over several… while the moderates only had one candidate. So yes, the RINO’s candidate won because our votes were spread out over several candidates. It’s important to note here that McCain never broke 50%… his support was in the 20′s and 30′s… which would seem to me that he should be catering to the conservative base instead of giving us his middle-finger.
Why is it OUR problem when the candidate doesn’t support our values? He’s even floating going outside the party, to someone who actively works against the Republican party platform, for VP?????
Are you bragging about having loose standards? I have strong ideals and believe that a candidate should represent those ideals BEFORE I will vote for them.
Yet every time we raise questions and issues about the candidate, WE’RE the ones that are attacked and called names by a bunch of schoolyard bullies. Instead of beating us up, you should be appealing to us… and convincing your candidate to appeal to us. Calling us names… yeah, that’s a sure way to get our support.
I WANT to be able to vote for McCain… but every time I start to lean that direction, he pulls some dumb@$$ stunt to appeal to liberals and stick it to conservatives.
dominigan on August 22, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Nancy Pelosi is not in the Senate. John Cornyn however is and McVain said to him, “#uck you!”
You really need to take your McBlinders off once in a while.
MB4 on August 22, 2008 at 12:06 AM
[sigh] Very true. I suspected the same thing about the ACU ratings since there’s not a lot of detailed information about how different bills are scored.
McCain-Feingold is an abomination. Amnesty should count for -20%, especially based on the effects we’ve been able to observe since our last one.
dominigan on August 22, 2008 at 12:07 AM
You are becoming ever more unhinged and I doubt that you are earning any McCain points either. So sad.
MB4 on August 22, 2008 at 12:10 AM
PALIN
Sir Andrew on August 22, 2008 at 12:53 AM
And on the blog side of this site…we have:
Mark Halperin: Two GOP sources say it’s Romney; Update: NYT says it’s Romney or Pawlenty
lol. People sure are bored.
scotth on August 22, 2008 at 12:59 AM
Yeah, I noticed that too.
It kind of amuses me that people (from RNC big-wigs down to HotAir and FR commentators) think that their preferences, – even with good reasons why- will matter to McCain when the time comes to announce. When decision time comes, it will be a snap decision for the moment, depending on how he feels.
Will he pick a useless mediocrity to try to lose as few ‘independent-moderate-security minded democrats’ votes as possible.
Will he pick a very slightly conservative (that he can bully into mediocrity) as a very slight bone to throw to conservatives?
Or will he throw caution to the winds, pick the guy he really wants; Fellow ‘maverick’ Lieberman? and as is his nature, poke the entire Republican party right in the eye.
He will make his decision based only on what his mood is at the moment of decision… Not for the good of the party, not for the good of the nation… Probably not even for his own benefit.
In the very unlikely event that he picks a REAL conservative with a strong character, I’ll HAPPILY eat my words, and (figuratively) kiss the posteriors of every McCainiac in the place
LegendHasIt on August 22, 2008 at 1:40 AM
I think it’s just more of a sport. The right of summer in a Presidential election year. But when people like Laura Ingram go bonkers over a possible pick, it makes me wonder.
I’ll wait until he chooses a candidate. Rove said that almost all of the media/talking head speculation as to what was going on behind the scenes in 200 regarding Bush’s VP was wrong.
I hope he makes a good choice. But I’ll wait to be ‘outraged’ after he makes it.
scotth on August 22, 2008 at 2:28 AM
Because he’s a bigger liberal then mccain.
peacenprosperity on August 22, 2008 at 8:33 AM
If McCain does not pick Romney I am not voting. Seriously. I decided I cannot stomach McCain and all his bs. I know plenty of other people like me, too.
PoliticallyIncorrectSandy on August 22, 2008 at 9:26 AM
Yeah,
Like “misterpeasea.” He’s also campaigns here against McCain. And in a two man race, and with McCain losing, Obama will be the next president. And you’ve got no problem with that at all, do you? Can’t stomach McCain and his BS. And the choice is Obama or McCain. Must be so much better with the most liberal senator of 2007 becoming president. Than traitor McCain, right?
Ironic, isn’t it.
wise_man on August 22, 2008 at 10:05 AM
And here’s another example of someone who thinks its better to punish McCain and get Obama for 4 to 8 years. Wonderful.
wise_man on August 22, 2008 at 10:06 AM
http://www.nationalreview.com/polls/?poll_id=1&view_results=1
Mr. Wednesday Night on August 22, 2008 at 1:24 PM
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