Crisis: Russia digs in within Georgia, threatens response to Poland “beyond diplomacy”; Update: Russia freezes ties with NATO?
posted at 3:45 pm on August 20, 2008 by Allahpundit
Consider this an early warning that the conventions might not be the big news story of the next two weeks.
A ranking Russian military official today said Moscow plans to establish 18 long-term checkpoints inside Georgian territory, including at least eight within undisputed Georgian territory outside the pro-Russian enclave of South Ossetia…
“The president ordered us to stop where we were,” he said. “We are not pulling out and pulling back troops behind this administrative border into the territory of South Ossetia.”
The plans appear to violate the terms of a French-endorsed cease-fire deal signed late last week by the presidents of Georgia and Russia. It called for both countries’ troops and allied armed groups to move back to their positions before hostilities between the two countries’ troops led to a Russian military incursion early this month into the staunchly pro-U.S. Caucasus Mountain nation.
Russian officials insist they may keep troops along the South Ossetian-Georgian border as well as within Georgia proper as part of a peacekeeping mission begun in the 1990s.
They’ve already built one checkpoint 30 miles outside Tbilisi, according to the AP, and are working on three more in west-central Georgia. Curiously enough, the sob story (and ultimatum) issued this morning by Russian FM Sergey Lavrov didn’t mention anything about a sustained occupation. As for the screaming red-fonted banner on Drudge warning of a reaction “beyond diplomacy” to the new U.S.-Poland missile deal, the article itself is excruciatingly vague — but Condi Rice’s reply was not. Taunting the bear:
Such comments “border on the bizarre frankly,” Rice said, speaking to reporters traveling with her in Warsaw.
“When you threaten Poland, you perhaps forget that it is not 1988,” Rice said. “It’s 2008 and the United States has a … firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland’s territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it’s probably not wise to throw these threats around.”…
Speaking to reporters traveling with her, Rice said, “the Russians are losing their credibility.”
For good measure, NATO’s secretary general sneered that the threats are “pathetic rhetoric.” How smart is it to mock a country that’s jonesing on military victory and already proven it’s willing to spit on a ceasefire it agreed to just days ago? The U.S. and EU seem awfully confident that Russia’s not going to escalate this any further, with Bush insisting this afternoon that Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia and that western powers will work together to ensure the country’s integrity. The only problem: Russia’s already called an emergency meeting of the Duma for Monday to decide whether to formally recognize the provinces as independent, even though, as the Telegraph notes, they’ve agreed to a raft of UN resolutions over the past 10 years recognizing that the two are part of Georgia. What’s the west’s plan if its bluff is called? Notes WaPo, drily, “Bush did not specify what, if anything, the United States and its allies would do to uphold Georgian sovereignty…”
I have no answers, but find myself wondering how long it’ll be before ambassadors start getting recalled and what a week-long “3 a.m. moment” will do to Obama’s message during the Democratic convention. Exit question: How likely is it that the two provinces, occupied and encircled by Russian troops, will “vote” for independence instead of annexation by Moscow?
Update: To recap, then, we’ve got saber-rattling with Poland, hunkering down in Georgia, the emergency Duma meeting, and now this. I hope someone in a position of influence is considering the possibility that they’re not bluffing.
Blowback
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Come on, Steve. The West just had a kniption fit over the prospect that someone would FINALLY take on Iran. No one can even think of threatening not to buy oil from Russia, and if they do, Russia can react on the ground. It’s just a question of who wants to push it further. The Soviet economy was smaller, in comparison to the West, than the Russian is now. Russia can push things as far as they want. I don’t see anyone, or anything, stopping them. Condi will write a them a note IN ALL CAPITAL LETTERS!
Like I said, we can’t even deal with Iran. Just look at how we have let Iran dance around us and then multiply that by 10000. The West needs to snap out of it and come back to reality. This should have happened on 9/12 …. but it didn’t. This is the second major wake up call.
progressoverpeace on August 20, 2008 at 4:42 PM
Nichevo,
Indeed. Heckuva job, Condi!
Mike Honcho on August 20, 2008 at 4:43 PM
I’m pretty sure ‘drunken’ is in there.
carbon_footprint on August 20, 2008 at 4:43 PM
It’s already started.
Rick on August 20, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Ah, yeah. The whole argument I’ve heard over the last couple of years that the Russians were going to “help” us with Iran…um, sorry but it always sounded like bullshit to me. Kinda like how our friends in China were going to help with Sudan/Darfur and North Korea.
funky chicken on August 20, 2008 at 4:44 PM
We don’t need Poland to defend us, or anyone else, really. But that doesn’t mean we can’t defend our allies. You are totally against the idea of allies in general, aren’t you?
For what it’s worth, I’m all for the US acting here, all alone if need be–to exercize our ‘bidding on the world’. But you want us to just piss off the rest of the world and tell them to go hang? Man, that’s just stupid. Poland, Czech, etc–they have interests that are ours. Freedom, free trade, etc. They are closer to people that are evil and want to take that away from them.
I’m sure you think that the US was wrong to confront Japan before WWII, right? Answer that please–the US brought WWII on ourselves by standing up and getting in the way of Japan’s aggressive empire building and rape of the Far East. Isn’t that your view? If we had just said, “screw it” and let every country do whatever they wanted, as long as the US wasn’t attacked–the world would be better?
Buddy, I have news for you. The Axis would have won. And how long until the Axis started playing on the Western Hemisphere? Monroe doctrine begone! Until at last, the world would have been the Axis and the US. Think we could have fought them off then? Not a chance.
Same thing now.
Vanceone on August 20, 2008 at 4:44 PM
Bush: All Hat and No Cattle.
Putin: All Tsar and no Pooty.
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 4:45 PM
In a way it’s kinda nice that Putin got tired of wearing his friendly mask. He should have kept it on for 3 more months or so, just to try to help Obama get elected.
funky chicken on August 20, 2008 at 4:46 PM
We Wanted International Help on Ground.
– Saakashvili
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 4:47 PM
This is long, I apologize in advance…just can’t say it in one-liner or two.
Russia has a negative military growth rate, twice ours. Russia has a negative population growth rate, -800k per annum over the past decade. It’s economy is entirely dependent on foreign purchases of crude oil and natural gas. GDP growth is negative overall.
[Overall stats on Russian military can be found here.]
Russia’s military training time is low. It’s flight time per pilot is low. Has no real heavy asirlift capability. Has a disfunctional Navy. Has largely disfunctional air defense systems. It is the process of restructuring the armed forces, but Russia’s move to a volunteer Army is very slow, and has met roadblocks. Military infrastructure within Russia is on par with most Third World nations. Russia, to placate non-Russian nationalities and ethnicities within Russia, has had to “allow” a number of Russia sobordinate “republics” to establish and train their own armed forces based on nationality and ethnicity. The loyalties of these forces cannot be assessed, but generally, the cannot be banked on by Russia. Russia has had to spend enormous amounts of money (taking away from other civil and military needs) to recover, refit and maintain a much smaller force (to include nuclear) left over from Soviet days. Its ability to move from military innovation to full-scale preoduction of new systems is extremely low. Russia has a senior officer corps more in line with the old Tsarist days than under the Soviet Union, perhaps closer to old American Mob Boss days. Is still using “lessons learned” from Afghanistan as instructional material in its ground forces schools and academies. it relies on brutality in the junior ranks for unit cohesion and bribes at the upper ranks for loyalty and command cohesion. Most of the decision-makers within Russia, to include the military command structure, are or have been selected by Putin on the basis of former KGB or current FSB/SRV/GRU ties. [This has an impact on the Russian professional officer corps.]
Are they a threat? Yes. No question about that.
But, blustering statements and threat must be assessed with an eye on capabilities.
Two weapons in the Russian inventory that can cause havoc. Nuclear forces, and crude oil/gas.
Two biggest weaknesses? The Russian economy and economic structure; Putin’s personal control of the decision-making process within the Russian command structure. If the Russian economy can be stressed successfully capabilities suffer. If the power-elites around Putin can be fractured, impoverished, or if Putin cannot provide promised results, Putin loses control over his fiefdom.
It is just now getting really interesting.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 4:51 PM
NATO or no NATO membership,
Georgia is an ally of the USA.
The US will not abandon our
strategic ally in need of defense.
What exactly has been the purpose of maintaining US troops and installations in Germany if not to counter Russian aggression? So the Russians started a war. Why act as though we have no contingency plans for such aggression?!
Condi Rice, manners and mannerisms and words only go so far. Remember the old nursery rhyme:
Sticks and stones may break my bones,
but words will never hurt me.
Guess how that translates in Georgia right now!
Get our ass in gear.
Get NATO up to speed.
Hanky panky wishy washy Nice Guy BS is deplorable,
gawking while our ally is raped and decapitated,
EVERY BIT AS BAD as the Mean Bully attack scenario
if we’re to presume any international integrity.
maverick muse on August 20, 2008 at 4:51 PM
THE PEACE-AT-ANY-PRICE PERIL
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew to Brussels to huff and puff, but NATO isn’t about to blow Putin’s house down.
In an act of breathtaking daring, NATO ministers even put down their teacups and agreed to term the Russian invasion “disproportionate.” Boy, Putin’s scared now.
Meanwhile, Russian troops and their mercenary auxiliaries remain on Georgian soil – and the West doesn’t have a single means of moving them [actually, of course it has, but ... .. .. ....].
Putin believes in force. Just because we don’t share his values doesn’t mean he’s going to see the light. (Imagine a President Barack Obama pitted against Putin – the Left’s new messiah would be gobbled up in one bite.) [Like George W. Bush has done anything but yak]
Putin doesn’t think we’re naive fools. He knows it.
– Ralph Peters
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Yes, but the GOP bigs told us that GW Bush was Mr. Perfect. He did OK on the foreign part of the 9/11 response until about 2004 when he decided that the Iraqis were all about hearts and minds, and they had the same motivations as your average American citizen.
He also should have started a MAJOR domestic energy production initiative on 9/12/01 … but was either too beholden to our “friends” in Saudi Arabia, or to his “friends” in the GOP congress who wanted nothing but feeding at the trough for a few years, and certainly couldn’t be bothered to put in the hard work that a major war footing would have required.
BUT, like you said, we are getting a second wake up call. Let’s focus on reacting to this one appropriately. That means electing Senators like Bob Shaffer in CO and Steve Pearce in NM, along with good candidates for other offices across the country. And not handing the White House to Obama.
funky chicken on August 20, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Can we get the Boeing 737 with the Laser thingy over Russia anytime soon?
jdog on August 20, 2008 at 4:53 PM
Many schone fraulein and much grosses bier. That’s about it I guess.
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 4:56 PM
The Russian component is from the 76th Guards Motor Rifle Division (top notch outfit). The rest of the forces are actually mercenaries in the employ of a Chechen crime family. These are the folks you see having great time shooting at civs and reporters, and walking around drunk. The Russian soldiers are in the background, doing the real task of the operation which is to dismantle the Georgian military capability.
The next major move in Georgia by the Ruskies will be to take over the operation of the oil pipeline, for it’s protection and to stabilize the world oil market, of course.
The Ukraine can fight back, so they’re way down on the list. However, there is always Estonia, Latvia, etc…
Putin is pushing to create another “Soviet Bloc”, this time bringing the Middle East under it’s protection. The first brick in the wall is Syria. Iran is the centerpoint, with Pakistan currently ready for harvest now that Musharaf is gone. All that remains is Iraq.
The next big play for the West will come from Turkey, and this will really decide the issue. If they fold, the Middle East will be lost to russian organized crime. If they buck up and move combat units towards Georgia, the Ruskies will either have to withdraw or start shooting.
BobMbx on August 20, 2008 at 4:58 PM
I take it back what I posted weeks ago.
I’m GLAD we have those tank buster cluster munitions. I think they should be loaded onto every EU airplane post haste.
Techie on August 20, 2008 at 4:59 PM
The most unintentionally funny post in the thread.
Thacker apparently has never glanced in the general direction of a history book.
Go ahead, Captain Usually Right. Tell us: at what point in history has it been a good idea for one powerful nation-state to let a rival threaten the sovereignty of other nation-states and let that threat go completely unchecked?
Forget the little country swallowed up. Let’s go with your amoral worldview and decide we don’t care, and that our sole motivating factor is pure self-interest.
(And just to keep it interesting, let’s not even bother tackling your laughable assertions about what may or may not be in our self-interest. Let’s stick with your neo-Buchananite perspective).
So tell us, O Wise One, when in history – and you can have all of history to choose from – has it turned out well for the other global or regional power when they ignored the hegemonic advances of another.
Forget WWII. You can go back a few thousand years, if you like. Just find us a good example.
Take your time.
While you’re looking, count how many times it didn’t turn out so well.
And let me thank you in advance for my laugh of the day. Honestly. That was just rich.
Professor Blather on August 20, 2008 at 5:00 PM
Recall the infamous Russian winters. Whatever military achievements made must be accomplished during summer in time to entrench before winter. And so it goes.
With or without NATO, the US alliance with Georgia must be respected by the very President who begged for international help and got it from Georgia. AT LEAST tit for tat. Otherwise, to stand by gawking while our ally is raped and decapitated is no better than being the bully aggressor. There is no “nuance” to the attack and invasion of Georgia’s sovereign territory by Russia. To require ineffective hollow “nuance” in response is sheer stupidity and moral depravity.
maverick muse on August 20, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Are you referring to the all out sons-of-#itches, barbarians, and chronic drunks with no regard for human life, otherwise known as the Russians?
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:02 PM
MB4:
Just because there is no mushroom cloud over Moscow does not mean that Bush is all hat and no cattle. In fact if that were true I can think of a lot of things he could be saying right now to reassure the Russians, and he isn’t doing that. In fact Condi Rice is calling their behavior bizarre.
I don’t know what the future holds, I do not think that most Americans want to see a military confrontation with Russia however. That does not mean we do nothing.
I know that Europe needs their oil, but Russia needs their markets too. And how does Russia back down from this threat against Poland? If not, what do they do? Georgia is one thing, Poland or for that matter the Ukraine are something else.
Putin can believe in force all he wants, but thus far the only force he has come up against is Georgia’s 29,000 man army.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:03 PM
Well said.
Obama is a child … and not a very smart child, at that. I’m still hoping that normal Dems snap out of it, soon. Summertime’s almost over …
progressoverpeace on August 20, 2008 at 5:04 PM
I hope someone in a position of authority has been preparing for this worst case scenario all along. No one from the beginning of this thing should have trusted that Russia intended to keep any agreements at any point. Russian thugs only respect one thing, brute force. We need to engage them and kick them out of Georgia.
Maxx on August 20, 2008 at 5:05 PM
BobMbx:
If you look at the history books, Russia and Turkey have had issues before. That goes way back.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:07 PM
You may want to clue Europe in on that plan. Germany is heavily dependent on Russia’s pipeline for natural gas, and without the Tiblisi (BTC) “pipelines for peace,” and planned extensions to supply gas to Europe (there’s two of them, oil and gas, built by British, US and other western interests), just how does Europe replace Russia’s gas?
Nichevo on August 20, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Pardon my lack of concern over just how unseemly it must feel to rain on the Russian Victory Parades. We handled the Soviet Union when they were much larger during the Cold War, and we have advanced. They have not. Their armed forces are a bunch of thugs who have never come up against an enemy force close to their equal, but they are still a second rate military. Even the European Union can take them if they will only get their back up.
Russia will be difficult to counter, but not impossible. Actions which are not strictly military invasions take place under more glacial conditions…. Slowly and yet Irresistably. Russia’s days in Georgia are numbered. They may be numbered in the months or even years, but they are done nonetheless. It took us a full month to be able to go after the Taliban after 9/11. Since the urgency is less now, what makes us think something immediate must occur. It took us 6 months to get forces and actions sufficient to throw Saddam out of Kuwait. Why must the US military act NOW without thought, planning, or operational security?
Allah, you are as impatient as a journalist always is in these matters. It is time to cajole action out of reluctant allies…. but not to question the need for such action.
The Russian bear will be removed, probably thru international pressure brought to bear over many months. Let’s all take a comfortable seat and see how this turns out. Shall we?
Subsunk
Subsunk on August 20, 2008 at 5:08 PM
In proportion to it’s population Georgia put almost as many troops in tar baby Iraq as we did. They didn’t do it for themselves, they did it for the U.S. (or for Bush). He owes then – BIG TIME.
However … … … waiting ….. waiting … …
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:09 PM
I agree. I don’t have any faith in the current administration to deal with this problem adequately. More likely they will continue to escalate their rhetoric while Russia responds with action, invading another country and another.
Bush/Rice: You think you can invade Georgia? Well… we’re going to put a couple interceptor missiles in Poland in a few years, so take that! :P
Russia: Invades Poland
Bush/Rice: Oh yeah? You’ll pay for that… in a couple of years we’re going to put our interceptor missiles into the Ukraine instead. Take THAT!
Russia: Invades the Ukraine
Bush/Rice: You’re really asking for it now! We’re thinking that, perhaps, just maybe, we’re going to revoke your limited role in NATO! Ha ha, you’re on the ropes now, maybe, if we decide to follow through!
Russia: Freezes role in NATO, withdraws from G8
It’s embarrassing and dangerous. Gates removed the possibility of military action off the table in the opening days of the conflict. What an idiot! This could only have further emboldened Russia by confirming their analysis that America is a paper tiger. Our inaction against Iran started the ball rolling and our reaction to the Georgia invasion has only given it a big push.
FloatingRock on August 20, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Vlad’s grip on power is related directly to the needs/demands of his elite inner circle. It is my impression those needs are primarily financial. Vlad is presently riding the bucking bull out of the chute and wagering he can stay on for the full 8 seconds. As you say, their system is vulnerable, he knows it and has made his bet,..but it is a big one.
a capella on August 20, 2008 at 5:10 PM
You do realize that the US didn’t declare war on Japan until they attacked us. They were wreaking havoc in Asia long before that and we didn’t care. Are you one of those the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor people?
the Revolutionary War.
ThackerAgency on August 20, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Mark Steyn quoted a recent statistic that 70% of Russian women have had an abortion. I don’t know the source of the statistic, but given the Russians extensively documented population crunch, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility.
That’s bad news for Sting (and probably for the rest of us). Apparently the Russians don’t “love their children too”.
Mike Honcho on August 20, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Interesting article from the Turkish Daily News from last January.
Turkey needs that oil pipeline [Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)] as much as Western Europe. If it is cut, or taken over by Russia, Turkey stands to lose.
Turkey supports Georgia. Will Turkey support military efforts to stabilize Georgia and push back the Russian invasion and apparent dismemberment of Georgia?
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Somebody needs to watch “Red Dawn” a few more times….
LimeyGeek on August 20, 2008 at 5:14 PM
You must, therefore know that there are two means of fighting: one according to the laws, the other with force; the first way is proper to man, the second to beasts; but because the first, in many cases, is not sufficient, it becomes necessary to have recourse to the second.
- Niccolo Machiavelli
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Bush is calling the Bear’s bluff, thats what should have happened 3 decades ago and the Bear doesn’t have the teeth now it had then, which was a fraction of what the paranoiacs here thought they had.
Putin is in a great position to goad us into making a mistake or throwing sand to make us blink and Putin doesn’t want to be the first Russian leader to fail at the US-Russia brinkmanship game so he’s going to take it to the limit, maybe he’ll pound his shoe on the podium but Putin knows well the insanity of trading push for shove.
I say show me the river slick.
Speakup on August 20, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Secret operations are essential in war; upon them the army relies to make its every move.
- Sun Tzu
If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near.
- Sun Tzu
Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
- Sun Tzu
You have to believe in yourself.
- Sun Tzu
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:23 PM
You better hope they are because if they’re crazy enough to actually cross the line in Poland, Vlad gets “The Warning”, and I’m not talking a “strongly worded letter” here, I’m talking “13 Days in October”.
Suddenly, who Queeg or Obambi are going to pick as running mates doesn’t seem so important right about now…
SuperCool on August 20, 2008 at 5:23 PM
You were pretty slow on the draw, MB4
pseudonominus on August 20, 2008 at 5:26 PM
“Putin doesn’t want to be the first Russian leader to fail at the US-Russia brinkmanship game…”
Speakup on August 20, 2008 at 5:19 PM
But Putin will not be the first…
Stalin failed over Azerbaijan and Iran in 1946-47; over Berlin in 1948-49.
Khrushchev over Berlin in 1961 and Cuba in 1962.
Breshnev over a number of Third World adventures in which the USSR threatened to ratchet up the lethality, 1970′s and 80′s.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 5:26 PM
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:23 PM –
“There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.”
Julius Caesar Act 4, scene 3, 218–224
We’ve missed that tide quite a number of times over the years, too busy arranging deck chairs or trying to re-write the passenger list.
I beleive it is now time to cast off…
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 5:32 PM
You do realize that the US didn’t declare war on Japan until they attacked us. They were wreaking havoc in Asia long before that and we didn’t care.
We did care.
Before they attacked us, we had already reacted to their aggression in Asia with sanctions and a Navy buildup in the Pacific.
sandberg on August 20, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Floating Rock:
Bush has already done more to deal with Iran than any previous administration. And he has told Putin to back off, which is not something any American president did when the Russians took over eastern Europe in the first damn place.
I honestly do not know what people expect.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:38 PM
And floating rock, if Russia invaded Poland and the Ukraine in the last couple of days it is news to me.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:39 PM
For those of you who don’t think that Russia will use nuclear weapons if we DECLARE WAR on Russia (something that never happened during the Cold War), please note that Russia’s greatest military victory was against Napoleon when the BURNED MOSCOW TO THE GROUND THEMSELVES.
How many American lives is Poland worth? 150, 200 million?
For the poster pointing to our GDP as a reason we will win the ‘long war’. That’s just further incentive for Russia to launch nuclear weapons. What do you think nuclear strikes on LA, Chicago, New York, and DC would do to our GDP? I bet our GDP would go down a lot farther than their GDP would and even the playing field.
I don’t like what Russia is doing. But our FEDERAL government is elected and in place to protect AMERICANS.
Everyone talks about equating this to WWII, but we didn’t start fighting WWII until AFTER WE WERE ATTACKED. Why is the bar in such a different place now?
ThackerAgency on August 20, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Let’s keep in mind that it is a lot harder to be tough when you are actually making the calls than it is to talk about being tough on a blog. Different entirely.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Machiavelli warned that one must be as a Fox to avoid traps and as a Lion to scare off wolfs (or bears).
Bush has shown by Iraq that the is not a Fox and by Russia that he is not a Lion.
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:44 PM
Thacker:
Who said we were going to declare war on Russia? Thus far it is the Russians who are doing the threatening and invading.
It is ridiculous, we are either war mongers or pussies, depending on the point of view of the accuser.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:44 PM
Why is the bar in such a different place now?
Because 70 million people died in World War II, so next time we’d like to nip the problem in the bud before it comes to that. Obviously.
sandberg on August 20, 2008 at 5:45 PM
We do have a policy of preemption. The precedent has already been established.
But, war by other means offers much more possibilities at a far lesser cost than hitting the beaches.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Everyone talks about equating this to WWII, but we didn’t start fighting WWII until AFTER WE WERE ATTACKED. Why is the bar in such a different place now?
Because when you are talking about countries the size of Russia/Soviet Union or China by the time they attack you many millions of people have lost their lives.
We are facing the Soviet Union again. We should have known that they hadn’t gone away because no one was purged…indeed a former head of the most feared organization in the Soviet Union is the head of the criminal enterprise. Putin.
If we can keep this between soldiers they haven’t a chance…they are just a bunch of targets. If it escalates to missiles we have to hope that the same incompetence that drives their military drives their missile forces. All along knowing that if even one missile hits we are in deep shit.
Dangerous times…but whether we want it or not war is coming.
PierreLegrand on August 20, 2008 at 5:48 PM
MB4:
I know you are the smartest person on the planet and all that, but Bush has succeeded in Iraq, despite the armchair generals and critics back home. In fact one of Russia’s biggest clients was Saddam Hussein. He bought 57% of his military hardware from the Russians. The Russians were there when we into Iraq. If Saddam had been allowed to stay in power and the efforts to maintain the no fly zones and sanction regime had gone by the wayside..who do you think Saddam would be supporting in this little crisis?
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Yes
and yes
Not permanent but coalitions nevertheless.
Oldnuke on August 20, 2008 at 5:49 PM
Putin has just “nuked the fridge” with his threat on Poland.
Putin is acting like every megalomaniac dictator of a powerful nation in the last 80 years. He wants results in his lifetime.
Hitler went early. The Ger. military planned on war in 1943 at the earliest.
Saddam Hussein attached Kuwait months before we downsized our military in a very large way.
Putin didn’t wait for President Obama. Or a stronger military.
What is tonight’s pizza delivery count at the Pentagon? Bill Gertz call your paper please.
I can’t see Condi bluffing Putin, or goading him. I hope the US has a good plan. Every relevant Ops officer should be very busy right now.
Not that I trust the DIA I & W guys to be any help.
NaCly dog on August 20, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Taking over northern Georgia without serious opposition is not the same as threatening a NATO member like Poland or a large neighbor like the Ukraine.
Pootie would be wise to take North Ossetia and Abkhazia outposts and call it quits.
Really a stupid move by a stupid man.
If Russia’s not-too-great economy fails, or the West tanks its stock market and the ruble, the plutocrats will put one into the back of his head.
TexasJew on August 20, 2008 at 5:50 PM
And MB4:
What exactly is this lion stuff? Are you saying that the United States should have gone into Georgia with military forces? I don’t know about you, but if we have to get into with Russia I would prefer it was a time and place of our choosing, not theirs.If we go in there without support from the Turks for instance, things could get complicated. The Russians are right there, we are not. That does not mean we are helpless, but there are logistics to take into account.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Sorry EJS, I didn’t see your post before I threw in mine. I didn’t take up three pages but seems we were thinking along the same lines.
Oldnuke on August 20, 2008 at 5:53 PM
And besides, when Bush was a lion in Iraq a lot of the people who initially supported the invasion turned on Bush. So much for being a lion. I guess that lion thing is in the eyes of the beholder.
Terrye on August 20, 2008 at 5:54 PM
That threat works both ways and our nuclear forces are in a much better state of repair that are those of the Tsarist forces.
First they came for the Georgians, then they came for the Ukrainians, then they came for the Poles, … … … … … then they came … then they came … .then they came .. then they came …
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Lion? More like a Cowboy and he was never a Fox on Iraq. Never. Therein has been the problem.
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 5:57 PM
TexasJew on August 20, 2008 at 5:50 PM –
The Russian stock markets have been tanking since the Georgian invasion, ands dropped at an accelorated pace following yesterday’s NATO foreign ministers meeting. The Russian ruble is tanking as well. The Russian black market is trying to snap up US dollars.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Lion? More like a Cowboy, and then a stubborn mule and he was never a Fox on Iraq. Never. Therein has been the problem.
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 6:00 PM
It would be wise to listen to MB4. We have entered a period of leadership and courage. Diplomacy is only a fool’s tool now.
Starlink on August 20, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Going Cossack, it’s the new rage:
1) The US harasses Venezuela enough for them to light up one of our aircraft.
2) We attack with full strength.
3) We systematically destroy all defensive systems and positions.
3) We remove all Soviet weapon systems, vehicles and munitions and ship them home as ‘trophies’.
4) We decide to broker all oil production with peacekeepers that are in country.
Hening on August 20, 2008 at 6:00 PM
turkey’s not gonna get involved beyond telling us we can’t use our bases on their territory to start hostilities with Russia.
funky chicken on August 20, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Let me tell you what else I’m worried about: I’m worried about an opponent who uses nation building and the military in the same sentence. See, our view of the military is for our military to be properly prepared to fight and win war and, therefore, prevent war from happening in the first place.
- George W. Bush
Bush used to be so much smarter many years ago.
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 6:02 PM
How many lives will inaction cost? The Bear now has a taste for blood and only the foolish would think he will stop eating.
Maxx on August 20, 2008 at 6:03 PM
Pardon my lack of concern over just how unseemly it must feel to rain on the Russian Victory Parades. We handled the Soviet Union when they were much larger during the Cold War, and we have advanced. They have not. Their armed forces are a bunch of thugs who have never come up against an enemy force close to their equal, but they are still a second rate military. Even the European Union can take them if they will only get their back up.
Russia will be difficult to counter, but not impossible. Actions which are not strictly military invasions take place under more glacial conditions…. Slowly and yet Irresistably. Russia’s days in Georgia are numbered. They may be numbered in the months or even years, but they are done nonetheless. It took us a full month to be able to go after the Taliban after 9/11. Since the urgency is less now, what makes us think something immediate must occur. It took us 6 months to get forces and actions sufficient to throw Saddam out of Kuwait. Why must the US military act NOW without thought, planning, or operational security?
Allah, you are as impatient as a journalist always is in these matters. It is time to cajole action out of reluctant allies…. but not to question the need for such action.
The Russian bear will be removed, probably thru international pressure brought to bear over many months. Let’s all take a comfortable seat and see how this turns out. Shall we?
Subsunk
Subsunk on August 20, 2008 at 5:08 PM
funky chicken on August 20, 2008 at 6:06 PM
“Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty.” – Thomas Jefferson
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Russia will be difficult to counter, but not impossible. Actions which are not strictly military invasions take place under more glacial conditions…. Slowly and yet Irresistably. Russia’s days in Georgia are numbered. They may be numbered in the months or even years, but they are done nonetheless. It took us a full month to be able to go after the Taliban after 9/11. Since the urgency is less now, what makes us think something immediate must occur. It took us 6 months to get forces and actions sufficient to throw Saddam out of Kuwait. Why must the US military act NOW without thought, planning, or operational security?
subsunk, pitch perfect
funky chicken on August 20, 2008 at 6:08 PM
I have to disagree with you, here, Terrye. Bush started off looking like he was going to do something, but he spent all of his nerve holding the line in Iraq (forced to be longer and more drawn out because Bush demanded that the ROE be kept at an unrealistic level, especialy in light of the fact that we were fighting a tribal culture). His second term was a total collapse, though that was signaled earlier by his about face on Israel with the Road Kill Map. In any event, it was downhill from there, ending in a Clinton-style deal with North Korea and nothing done to stop Iran. Bush never even took the fight from Iraq into Iran when there was more than just cause. We did nothing when the Iranians just snatched the Brits. It’s been weakness from the West all the way, except for the initial invasion of Iraq, which did work and scared the hell out of a bunch of folks, including getting Qadaffi to puke up his nuke desires and help expose the full breadth of the AQ Khan nuke trade. But it was all weakness after that. No one believed that Bush was going to do anything before he left office, for sure, … so Iran marches on. Bush screwed the pooch on Iran.
Yes. Condi almost cursed, even. She’s tough. Come on, Terry, our response has been a joke. A sad, sad joke.
I expected Bush to have left the Olympics when it all started. That would have been nice. Action on the ground from Russia generally calls for action on the ground from the US. If not in Georgia, then against Iran. There are lots of possible reactions, though … substantive reactions. We did none.
progressoverpeace on August 20, 2008 at 6:08 PM
Do you recall those 2,000 Georgians (proportionate to their population compared to ours over 100,000) who were in Iraq?
Do you recall that they were flown back to Georgia to defend their country?
Do you recall how many anti-tank weapons and other nice things that Bush gave them as a thank you for serving in tar baby Iraq to bring back with them?
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Hope dem Russian Jews are snapping up Visas to Israel and the US as fast as possible. Because we all know what happens when Russia goes into a financial depression. Hint: it’s called a pogrom.
I’ve given up on trying to convince Thacker of anything. I suspect that when Russia taking over the Ukraine and massacring everything in creation and Iran is aiming its nuclear weapons at Israel, he’ll still be towing the isolationist line and asking why we should care that other people who aren’t American are dying.
mjk on August 20, 2008 at 6:11 PM
What makes anyone think that if we do so little now, actually basically nothing, that we will do so much more later? That’s like OK I’m not doing anything now, but you just wait … you just wait … you just wait … you just wait … you just wait … you just wait … you just wait..
Things like that should already have been done for God’s sake!!!!
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 6:18 PM
Do you get the feeling that history is no longer taught in our schools? I sure do.
Oldnuke on August 20, 2008 at 6:20 PM
It took repeated prodding from presidential contender John McCain to draw President George W. Bush’s attention from the Beijing Olympics to the fact that Russian forces were overrunning the territory of a US ally.
- Clive Crook
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 6:20 PM
Oh, they teach a thing called history… it just has very little resemblance to what actualy happened…
Cause if you can’t blame the White Male, then it isn’t in the curriculum…
Romeo13 on August 20, 2008 at 6:22 PM
I agree, mjk–Thacker is willing to let Holocaust, version II happen and he’ll smile and go along willingly to let the new Russian bear take over all of Europe, Asia, and probably Africa. In fact, he seems to cheer on Russian aggression. I’m not sure why he thinks that letting murderous dictators have free reign is a dandy idea, because any fool who studies history can tell that eventually, murderous dictators have to be stopped.
And when does Thacker want them stopped? After they have swallowed up the rest of the world, and gotten so big they CAN’T be stopped? sounds like it!
Ladies and Gentlemen, isolationism is equivalent to defeat for America in the long run. Only shortsided fools don’t see that.
Thacker, for a so-called conservative, doesn’t the fact that you and the DailyKossacks have the same line on this topic make you think any?
Vanceone on August 20, 2008 at 6:23 PM
Nero fiddled. Rome burned.
MB4 on August 20, 2008 at 6:24 PM
The crew of the Reuben James might like to discuss that with you…if there are any of the 44 survivors still alive.
Oldnuke on August 20, 2008 at 6:25 PM
Good thing you weren’t president in 1948. Or 1960. Or 1980. I thought conservatives were the only ones left with any balls.
Hope P. Muntz on August 20, 2008 at 6:27 PM
I’m a little late on responding to this one since I had to take my wife to chemo.
Don’t let length deter you. It’s actually because the majority of your posts are fairly in depth that I enjoy reading your responses.
TooTall on August 20, 2008 at 6:28 PM
Oldnuke on August 20, 2008 at 6:20 PM –
If it involves old white men, it sure has tappered off quite a bit. :-)
From my personal observation, having raised five kids to maturity, most schools rarely get past the 60′s, if that, and in more recent years, spend too much time on “issues” related history.
I obtained a degree in secondary education (certified in civics, social studies, world history and American history and geography) after I left DC a while back. Found almost every school system I interviewed with (9 school districts)wanted someone to coach (football, basket ball) and “teach” history as a sideline job.
Taught one year at a inner city school, failed several students, who were thus prevented from participating in sports. Was not re-hired.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 6:28 PM
Oldnuke on August 20, 2008 at 6:25 PM –
October ’41. North Atlantic.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 6:29 PM
TooTall on August 20, 2008 at 6:28 PM –
Prayers going out for your spouse.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Knew you’d get it. Agree with TooTall on your posts. Enjoy ‘em.
Oldnuke on August 20, 2008 at 6:41 PM
I simply do not understand why the Georgians haven’t introduced the Russians to the concept of an IED yet. As we’ve seen in Iraq, they’re not that hard to build, not that hard to emplace and are terrific at shredding both soldiers and their tanks.
If the Russians insist on staying where they are not supposed to be and in rolling around the countryside when they agreed to leave, then it seems to me that more than a few strategicially-placed surprises might give them call to rethink those goals.
One would almost think that Bush has ordered the Georgians NOT to protect themselves.
NahnCee on August 20, 2008 at 6:41 PM
Please calm down. No one is declaring war on anyone.
terryannonline on August 20, 2008 at 6:44 PM
We need to send Georgia a bunch of copies of Red Dawn.
JayDubya on August 20, 2008 at 6:55 PM
NahnCee on August 20, 2008 at 6:41 PM –
“…why the Georgians haven’t introduced the Russians to the concept of an IED yet.’
Something about the Georgian military and national leadership being a bit more willing to operate along the guidelines of Geneva. Second, why give the Russians, and a good bit of the rest of the world, any excuse to label the Georgians as nothing more than terrorists and thugs and have the evidence to prove it?
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Scrap the Geneva protocols.Let’s start fighting on the Communists and Islamofascists terms, release our troop’s handcuffs. To those who say , NO we are better than that…. you never fought a war….. I have….
MNDavenotPC on August 20, 2008 at 7:13 PM
MNDavenotPC on August 20, 2008 at 7:13 PM –
Nothing wrong at all with fighting smart, and small units raising cain, or going after an enemy. But, when we, or any of our allies, start blowing up street markets, or wholesale mine agricultural areas, or booby-trap civilian infrastructure, then we will have descended far deeper than we, who are, indeed, better than that should tolerate.
We have Rules of Land Warfare for a darn good reason. We are a signatory of Geneva and Hague for a darn good reason.
Advocating tossing away these precepts no matter if one fought in a war or not, is unadulterated stupidity.
Besides, the only “Communists” we could fight would be China, Cuba and as of last week, Nepal.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 7:19 PM
Here’s the IED that needs to be introduced:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THZvZ6S4C14
This is an actual engagement (re-enacted). This weapon has been referred to as “The Hand of God”.
BobMbx on August 20, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Syria signs on with the USSR,no wonder Iran,el
Dinnerjacket walks around with a perma-smile,
ear to ear,me thinks Iran has been in co-hoots
all a long with the Ruskies!
Sounds like Putin is gambling like a drunkin
(Russian)sailor,and Putin sure is “when push
comes to shove”,pushin and shovin awfully hard!
canopfor on August 20, 2008 at 7:25 PM
The 4th Geneva Conventions were mostly the reaction of an utterly spent, shocked and stunned West, trying to come to grips with the immensity of that conflict and the unspeakable horrors that Germans and Japanese had perpetrated. We signed the Geneva Conventions, declaring illegal many of the tactics we had just used to win that war, for the same reason that people called WWI “The War To End All Wars”. We wanted so much to believe that it would never happen again. But, it was nothing but wishful thinking and no one thought that it had any real applications – anyone who would really follow all those rules wouldn’t be at war, to begin with. The UN was built in the same way, and that institution, too, is now being taken way too seriously (I blame Bush Sr. for that). The West has, lately, convinced itself that its paper world is real. It’s a weird turn, really.
progressoverpeace on August 20, 2008 at 7:31 PM
The hand of God
BobMbx on Aug 20,2008 at 7:25PM.
BobMbx: Nice and Nasty!
canopfor on August 20, 2008 at 7:32 PM
Vergessen Sie nicht, den weißen Wein und das Wiener Schnitzel.
Johan Klaus on August 20, 2008 at 7:37 PM
I expect him to move a significant share of our forces from old Europe to new Europe in order to head off a Russian invasion rather than reacting to an invasion with worthless rhetoric that, for good reason, is utterly unconvincing to the Russians.
Making idle threats with no intention of following through only reinforces an enemies calculation that we are a paper tiger. It’s very dangerous to display ones weakness in such a way. When you draw a line in the sand there must be consequences to those who cross it or else they will develop the habit of crossing our lines with impunity.
FloatingRock on August 20, 2008 at 7:43 PM
progressoverpeace on August 20, 2008 at 7:31 PM –
Don’t wish to derail this thread over Geneva, but these standards are as much for our guys as they are for the other guys. Were the 4th Geneva Accords writtten and signed merely as a kneejerk reaction to the horrors of WWII? In part, yes. But even up to the present day, there are applications of Geneva that prevent us, and our allies, or many other nations, from acting with impunty regarding the wholesale targetting of civilians, or the murder of captured prisoners, or the use of weapons of horrific parameters. The paradox, for the entire Cold War, was that the use of nuclear weapons fell into the category of horrific weapons and also targetted innocent civilians. Whether employed as counter-force or counter-value weapons, any nuclear exchange would be in violation of Geneva.
But, we lived through it and survived. We do have a few nations and movements around the world who have no thought at all about Geneva, or its stipulatiuons…the jihadis instantly come to mind. The horrors of Sierra Leone, or Congo, or Rwanda, or Darfur also instantly come to mind.
But us tossing out compliance with Geneva…what does that accomplish in the larger scheme of things? War is hell. Even in a small unit engagement. No words to describe it, really. But, again, when we stoop to that lower level, willingly go down to the depths of human depravity, well, I hope I am not around.
Arms and train the Georgians. Enhance their special operations capabilities. Provide them with a real air defense capability. Provide them with an armor and armored cavalry capability. Teach them tactics. Provide them with force multipliers. Help re-organize their military. Provide them with their first real military command center and combat command systems. Provide them with channel-hopping communications and sat-coms. Provide them with state-of-the-art medical capabilities. Provide them with combat engineers and training. So much we can and should do…alone or as part of a larger NATO picture.
But, laying our entire strategy for Georgia on conventional warfare doesn’t seem to be the best route to take. Turning the Georgians into an army of thugs and terrorists, by introducing them to the joys of IED’s, for example, doesn’t sit well either.
We can fight this, and assist Georgia to fight this, and New Europe to fight this. And we don’t have to abandon Geneva to do so.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 7:48 PM
Johan Klaus on August 20, 2008 at 7:37 PM
Für mich, werde ich immer den jaeger schnitzel nehmen. Und selbstverständlich ein gut Chiemgau Bier.
coldwarrior on August 20, 2008 at 7:52 PM
Yes. I always point this fact out to people as proof that we have never considered actually following the Conventions in ways that we feel affect our security. But you can’t pick and choose among treaty articles. The existence of our strategic nuclear arsenal clashes with the Geneva Conventions. I’m not in favor of getting rid of our stratgic nukes, so I think it’s better to stop diplomatic foolishness. If our enemies are nice to us, we’ll be nice to them. If they attack our civilians, we’ll annihilate theirs. That’s how war has always been, and the US has always been among the fairest of fighters. But if an enemy is of a tribal nature then we can’t be applying laws of war that are built for individualistic societies, like ours. They just don’t work. The most important part of fighting is having the enemy get the message we are trying to send. The Geneva Conventions don’t allow for that communication, often, which is why we have all these attacks on the US and US interests over the past decades.
We did firebomb 60+ cities in Japan before the nukes ever even got off the ground, as I’m sure you know. Things can get pretty bad in war. It all depends on the other side, really. That’s supposed to be why nations think twice before going into war, especially against a nation that can destroy them at the push of a button. It boggles the mind, really.
That all sounds fine. I would still be pushing hard on Iran, since that has to be done, anyway.
Here, I’m not so much in agreement. Georgians are no strangers to thuggery. I don’t think we could teach them anything about that. The IED’s they can learn about on the internet.
I don’t really take Geneva seriously in any scope. I think that we are as nice as we are able (and often too much nicer than that, which causes its own problems) and that has nothing to do with Geneva. I don’t think Geneva ever had any effect, at all, on US actions, until the SCOTUS decided to cite it (as our nuclear arsenal sits in contradiction to it) and Bush decided to empower it, just as his father did the UN.
By the way, if we followed Geneva, we couldn’t really have any spies or anything that is actually needed for minor security. Better we just let the rest of the world play around with a paper that NONE of them ever respected, either. We should just be ourselves and do what we need to do.
progressoverpeace on August 20, 2008 at 8:10 PM
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