Much as it pains me to dismiss an ally like Georgia, and agree with much of the sentiments regarding Putin’s ambitions, I have to agree with SteveMG.

We were simply outmaneuvered here. We committed ourselves to an alliance with Georgia we could not enforce, and one we do not have immediate access to, but Russia does. Putin picked his target carefully, and conducted a classic Sudetenland approach, and did so under ours and Georgia’s notice. South Ossetia is about 2/3rds ethnically Russian, and they want to break away to join North Ossetia (although not Russia – the Ossetians want their own splinter republic). Georgia since the fall of the Soviet Union has considered South Ossetia and Abkhazia part of itself, but in fact both areas are functionally independent. However, as they are also the only central asian Soviet breakway to put themselves into order and go for democracy, we backed their efforts. Recently that included a visit from Bush, and a fair bit of military aid and training – they then eagerly volunteered troops to serve in Iraq. What better place to get Georgian soldiers true combat experience and cement themselves in the affections of the US?

As they grew more powerful militarily though, the South Ossetians and Abkhazians have become increasingly restive; both fear that a more powerful Georgia would seek to reassert control over them, and the Georgians have made their intent clear in those regards. The Georgians cannot simply allow South Ossetia and Abkhazia to secede, because it would shatter their country and sense of identity, while the South Ossetians and Abkhazians have been functionally separate for a decade, and have no desire to submit again.

It was a perfect setup: Putin makes sure Russian passports and ID become common as grass in both regions, and provide weapons to South Ossetian guerrillas. Russia further encourages the South Ossentians to more boldness – and they’ve been striking targets outside of their borders for some time now. The Georgians can’t afford this, nor tolerate it, and retaliate. Russia manages to strong-arm the UN into allowing them, as a “neutral third party” to deploy peacekeepers into South Ossetia. Now we come to a few weeks ago, where the Georgians decide they’d had enough provocation, and belief they’re strong enough to seize South Ossetia and pacify it for good (the Georgians are democratic and allies – but don’t let us be deluded into thinking they take the same view of “pacify” as we do). They probably are right, but they bank on their US support to keep the Bear at bay.

They’re wrong. Putin understands that we literally cannot intervene directly, so he takes fullest advantage. At the first attack on South Ossetia, Russia’s government goes up in arms over civilian casualties (as though they gave a flying shat when they leveled Grozny), many of whom are technically Russian citizens, according to their passports. What’s more, Russian peacekeepers are killed. By this time, Putin has already had a pair of mechanized brigades on the border just waiting for this – on cue, both roll into South Ossetia to “restore peace against Georgian aggression”. The Georgians, overconfident in their capabilities, attempt to hold their gains, and get plastered. Their artillery however is firing from outside the Ossetian border – so Russia says to the international community, “terribly sorry, but looks like we’ll have to secure a ‘buffer’ to preserve peace.” Cue the continued advance.

In one ten-year maneuver, Russia has reconquered part of a former satellite, made the US eat crow, and given his country a short, victorious war… which he’ll need to ensure support for his next military adventure.

And the US can’t do anything about Georgia. Logistically we can’t deploy troops there remotely as quickly as Russia can, and we can’t provide our insurmountable airpower so long as the surrounding nations decide they don’t want us staging from them. They live a lot closer to the Bear than we do. Also, don’t underestimate what the Russian military is capable of: I see people here bringing up Iraq as an example. Don’t. The Iraqis in both wars fought with Arab tactics, not Russian doctrine (an Arab tactics involve a lot more ululating and a lot more spray-and-pray, and a lot less skill), and were fielding outdated Soviet export models (which have nothing on the T-72’s and T-80’s Russia can field, just as export M1’s have nothing on US operated Abrams’).

I suspect Bush is already looking to the next round: eastern Europe. Russia has already built a pipeline directly to Germany, bypassing Poland via the North Sea (which enables them to destroy Poland’s economy without antagonizing the rest of Europe, if need be). The Ukraine is on the list, but it’s large, and the Western part is decidedly anti-Russian… they also have a considerable leftover nuclear arsenal, and the Ruskies know it. So Bush is pushing ahead with the missile defense shield (useless against a full Russian salvo, but enough to poke a thumb in their eye).

We cannot logistically support Georgia. But we sure as hell can support eastern Europe.

E1701 on August 18, 2008 at 8:30 PM