Russia still in Georgia despite agreement to leave
posted at 9:30 am on August 17, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
The Russians aren’t leaving Georgia despite having signed an agreement with Georgia to fall back to military positions established on August 6th before fighting erupted in South Ossetia. President Bush warned of long-term consequences from Russian failure to honor their commitment and declared American support for Georgian sovereignty, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Meanwhile, NBC reports that the Russians have looted Poti and have tank battalions creeping towards Tbilisi:
Bush told reporters at his Texas ranch that Russia took “a hopeful step” earlier in the day with an agreement to cease hostilities and pull back its forces. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed the deal at the Black Sea resort of Sochi after meeting with Russia’s Security Council, according to a Russian news agency.
But Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said later that “extra security measures” were necessary before any troops could be removed — a stance that U.S. and Georgian officials said was at odds with the French-negotiated agreement.
Russia tried offering a strange and weak rationale for their presence:
Nogovitsyn also said that Russian troops had left the Georgian cities of Gori and Poti but were operating nearby. “Our units are on the outskirts of Gori now, where large arsenals of Georgian weapons, including 15 tanks, have been discovered,” he said.
Yes, how strange it must be for Georgia to have tanks — in its own country! Gori is part of Georgia proper, not South Ossetia, although it is the largest city near the breakaway province. Gori also houses a major military base, which given the events of the last fortnight, seems a smart bit of logistics.
Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev have tried stringing this out as long as possible, seizing on every possible pretext to remain in place. Condoleezza Rice refuted their interpretation of the Sarkozy-negotiated cease-fire, claiming that notes taken during the meeting showed Russian agreement that it meant their withdrawal. Rice accused them of reneging on their promises and negiotiating in bad faith, escalating the diplomatic rift between Washington and Moscow.
Rice will meet with NATO this week in a pointed demonstration of Atlantic unity on the issue of Georgia. The West needs to follow Eastern Europe’s lead and present a strong, united front against Russian imperialism in the Caucasus. One strong step would be to offer NATO membership to Ukraine as an answer to Putin’s adventurism. The more likely action from the Brussels meeting will be a statement of enhanced interest in Ukraine’s membership, which would either signal the Russians to back off or to create another pretext for invasion there.
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The devil went down to Georgia.
The Russians are ignoring a cease fire?
I am shocked…shocked.
RobCon on August 17, 2008 at 9:31 AM
Whats the score on cease-fires,is this
the 2nd,3rd,or 4th breach!
I did a little intel work last night,
other than a Ruskie bomber flying over
the U.S.S.Nimitz at a height of 2000ft
over the deck,there has also been 8
incidents of airspace breach over Alaska!
On Sept 5,2007,F-15′s scrambled to intrecept
six Russian bombers near Elmendorf!
And,they violated Japanese airspace!
So all along,USSR,has been busy testing
and seeing what the response would be!
And so far in Georgia,the USSR is getting
the same answer!
From Hannitys webpage.
http://forums.hannity.com/showthread.php?t=532961
canopfor on August 17, 2008 at 9:48 AM
Need some force over there, or it’s not going to hold.
Spirit of 1776 on August 17, 2008 at 9:55 AM
I read this morning that Russia has a leased navel port in the Ukraine on the Black Sea. The russian’s are paying 93 million a year to lease the port. Things should get real interesting soon. Especially since Russia is refitting their
navy by building 5 or 6 new carriers.
2theright on August 17, 2008 at 9:58 AM
I hope that the Russian thugs have liberated hordes of Windows 98 programs, VHS tapes of Jane Fonda workouts, and Cher cassette tapes from the Georgians.
Uncultured barbarians.
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 10:00 AM
Ramparts and sentries? Huh.
Weight of Glory on August 17, 2008 at 10:03 AM
Need some force over there,or its not going to hold.
Spirit of 1776 on Aug 17,2008 at 9:55PM.
Spirit of 1776: Iran and Syria are watching with great
interest,to see what the West will do!:)
canopfor on August 17, 2008 at 10:04 AM
This points up the need for missile defense systems more than ever. Pelosi and Obama have fought the systems and now thanks to them we are at a point of no return. The Roosky military is in sorry shape, but their ace in the hole are their nukes. They can do what they damn well please knowing that the West is not going ot push back to much. Somebody call Hussien’s chief diplomatic consultant, Madeline Notsobright, and see if she has any suggestions.
JonRoss on August 17, 2008 at 10:05 AM
I must have missed something ? And my desk top is also coal fired. But it does what I need it to do. I feel really inadequate.
JonRoss on August 17, 2008 at 10:09 AM
True. And some of us in the West are watching to see what the West will do :)
Spirit of 1776 on August 17, 2008 at 10:13 AM
Now, look, folks, I think you’re getting ahead of yourselves here. I mean, has the UN met yet? How many resolutions has it passed? None? Seventeen to go, then.
All in good time, eh?
OldEnglish on August 17, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Right, who’s going to make them?
You and how many divisions?
Sir Napsalot on August 17, 2008 at 10:19 AM
Not for nuttin’, but what is the glorious UN doing about this?
JetBoy on August 17, 2008 at 10:20 AM
I’m a Macintosh computer enthusiast, showing the usual snark, intolerance and vigor of a small cult member. Nothing personal, I assure you.
The long answer is that the Russians are looting, pillaging, and then burning Georgian property. The average Russian thug thinks of physical objects as goods to be acquired. The real money, and the basis for US wealth, is intellectual property. Our society thinks of ideas that others pay money for. Think Hollywood movies, merchandizing, bundled financial products like mortgage payment streams, soap operas and reality shows on TV, and chemical materials / drug development.
We need to put lots of liquor stores in place in front of likely Russian invasions.
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 10:24 AM
The link I’ve got above from Hannitys site,
has other links as to what Putin has been
busing doing,and talks about the what if’s
of missisle shield deployment!
Since I’m one to shrug off the Russians,
its good to go back over the last year or
so,to see exactly what the USSR was busy
threatening about!
canopfor on August 17, 2008 at 10:27 AM
Merkel makes a fist (supports Georgian NATO inclusion).
And this:
There may be a bit of fight left in Old Europe.
Emphasis “may”.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 10:30 AM
We need to put lots of liquor stores in place in front
of likely Russian invasions.
NaCly dog on Aug 17,2008 at 10:24AM.
NaCly dog:Brilliant idea,but this is urgent!
Whats needed is a Dr.Evil plan,how about
airdropping vodka,and hookers,that should
slow them done a bit while Georgia regroups!
Haha:)
canopfor on August 17, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Oh, let’s pray so.
emailnuevo on August 17, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Surely, that’s for the UN, in their infinite wisdom, to decide, isn’t it?
After all they are the acknowledged experts, aren’t they? At least, they seem to think so.
OldEnglish on August 17, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Putin is kicking himself he did not do this 5 years ago.
Merkle and Sarkozy have more grit than those who cam before them recently in France and Germany.
RobCon on August 17, 2008 at 10:47 AM
Why haven’t the Russians reached the Armenian border?
They have the forces in place to do so. They’ve had numerous opportunites to push south, envelop Tblisi.
No strategic air campaign. No consolidation of the advanced line, and battlefield preparation for advancement beyond that line. No movement of follow-on forces. No pursuit of Georgian forces back to and beyond Tblisi and Kutaisi.
Why not?
Audacity on the battlefield just isn’t there. Even by their own normal movement scales, Russian should be consolidating on the Armenia border. Should be clearing out pockets of resistance around Tblisis, Poti, and Kutaisi after sweeping over a significantly smaller force. Only 200 tanks in the Georgian inventory when this thing started. Only 15 combat capable aircraft. No Georgian air defense to speak of. Little Georgian capable artillery, just a battalion or so. Half the troops the Russians have committted to this battle. This thing should have been over, a fait accompli.
Why?
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 10:55 AM
Like I said before, it’ll be another 12 years before we see any real change ‘on the ground’ in Georgia via the UN route.
Sir Napsalot on August 17, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Too funny.
First off, Ukrainian soldiers in NATO is more an attack on NATO than on Russia.
Secondly, as I have said many times Russia of course has no business occupying Georgia and should withdraw. Not because some impotents in Washington demand that, their strength has been shown in Iraq. But because what’s the point really?
Thirdly, it’s clear that Ukraine would be invited to NATO regardless. It’s not like if Russia did nothing in Georgia, Ukraine wouldn’t be in NATO ever. I mean a “threat” is by definition something that one can avoid by complying. Which brings me to my initial question which I asked few days ago.
What good did the US voluntarily do to Russia in the last 10 years? The Russian motivation to comply with the US demands is… what?
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 11:18 AM
Here’s a broad review of the military campaign by Russia: StrategyPage.
Two key grafs:
And:
Spreading Russian spin? Boy, I’ll say.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 11:18 AM
Precisely so. That was the point I was trying to make with my poor attempt at sarcasm. In effect, nothing of any substance will happen. The Ruskys will leave when they’re good and ready, and not before.
OldEnglish on August 17, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Sorry, you’ve been making this same argument now since the Russians invaded Georgia.
The US and West have provide billions in assistance to Russia, low interest loans, technical assistance, trade assistance, et cetera to help the country get on its feet.
The fact that the Russia mafia misused those funds tells us more about the people running that country than it does about Western and US motivations.
The same kleptocracy that stole much of the assistance we provided is now trying to steal its neighbors.
We provided the help. They misused it.
Who’s to blame?
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 11:22 AM
CW, I really hate to say this, but Freevillage at 11:18 AM may have given an answer. Loss of Ukraine to NATO would necessitate the finding of a new naval facility in the Black Sea.
OldEnglish on August 17, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Ifwhen Ukraine joins NATO, the status of the Russian leases at Sevastopol, and Nikolayev naval bases and naval shipyard (where the Moskva and Kuznetsov and a host of other capital ships have been built) will have to change. The Russians also “lease” a few airfields in Crimea. The Russians “lease” Ukrainian heavy airlift aircraft, unavailable in Russian inventories. All of this will be denied Russia when NATO membership is conferred.Germany was the stumbling block to Ukrainian membership at the Bucharest NATO meeting. Seems that stumbling block may have been removed.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 11:28 AM
DoD News Briefing with U.S. EUCOM Director of Logistics and Security Assitance
Release Date: Aug 16, 2008
Transcript
Texas Gal on August 17, 2008 at 11:29 AM
The UN is taking this very seriously. They are thinking about setting up a meeting to look into the possibility of perhaps sending the dreaded strongly worded letter to the Russians.
rbj on August 17, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Texas Gal on August 17, 2008 at 11:29 AM –
Thanks for the link.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 11:35 AM
I read Elie Wiesel’s book “Night.” And in it he described the attitudes of the adults when their city’s, their neighborhoods, and their homes, where invaded by the Third Reich. I’ll paraphrase it like this.
When they invaded the city the men were sure they meant them no harm. When they invaded their neighborhoods the men were sure they meant them no harm. When they were evicted from their homes the men were sure they, again, meant them no harm. And when they were herded into columns, made to stand for hours in the heat, only to be prodded into cattle rail cars, the men were optimistic that they were being relocated to better living quarters. Not even when they arrived at the concentration camps, and separated from family, did the men want to see the horrors that awaited them.
In no way am I equating the two conflicts. However, someone has to yell STOP to all these naive news outlets who report on Russia as if they can be trusted. They’ve constantly lied, but this time they might can be trusted? That’s crap. Russia is not to be trusted. Period.
coffee260 on August 17, 2008 at 11:36 AM
OldEnglish on August 17, 2008 at 11:27 AM –
Novorossiysk, a Russian seaport on the Black Sea, in Krasnodar, on the Azov, has been in the process of expansion based on the assumption that Ukraine may not renew the leases to Sevastopol and Nikolayev, among others. From my understanding from various sources, the expansion of Novorossiysk is woefully behind schedule, but presently affords the Russians the sole major facility on the Black Sea to anchor the Black Sea Fleet. Poti and Batumi are Georgian former Soviet naval bases, a lot smaller than Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, but allow for the dispersal of the Black Sea Fleet and forward basing as well.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Drudge linking to a report that Ukraine is offering anti-missile satellite facility to US.
JiangxiDad on August 17, 2008 at 11:44 AM
What a mind-boggling useless organization. I forgot…Russia is on the Security Council. ‘Nuff said I guess.
JetBoy on August 17, 2008 at 11:49 AM
I think we need to be cautious about pushing back too fast, too far and that we send a signal to Moscow that there’s a way out of this building confrontation.
Russia is (crudely put) paranoid; but even paranoids have enemies.
My guess is that Putin’s (yes, Medvedev’s the titular leader) approval ratings are somewhere near the 200% range about now.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 11:50 AM
JiangxiDad on August 17, 2008 at 11:44 AM –
New Europe is fully cognizant of the threat. Getting Old Europe on board is their task. “Old Europe…have a seat, l’me ‘splain somethin’ to you…”
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 11:52 AM
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 11:50 AM –
I wouldn’t go to the bank on that 200% thingie, not just yet.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 11:53 AM
From what I’ve read (yeah, Russian sources), the populace there just overwhelmingly supports this action.
Okay, the low 150%s.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 11:56 AM
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 11:50 AM –-
As for pushing Russia, if Georgia and the “Ossetia Question” becomes yet another Chechnya politically for Putin, pushing may be one of the set of options available to the West to pull the rug out from under Putin. He has put the farm on his recovery of the Near Abroad. If he can’t produce, he faces losing the farm.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Thanks very much for the info, CW. A mine of info, as usual.
OldEnglish on August 17, 2008 at 12:00 PM
I wondered the same thing several days ago, in an older thread.
I believe the answer is logistics. Russian tanks burn up a lot of fuel. One major choke point in supply is the Roki tunnel. Having 2-3 rail lines (no real ports) to supply a multi-division force is a reach. To a lesser extent, the remaining Georgians seem to be digging in in front of their capital. Plus the US has resupply troops on the ground in front of the Russians.
This is also the pattern for Soviet/Russian operations. Starting in 1943, a Soviet offensive would take ground, smash all before it, then halt for resupply. The final Soviet offensive in Germany, in Feb-April 1945, halted 100 miles from Berlin, as the Red Army leaders let the troops rape, loot, kill, and rape. See Ivan’s War by Catherine Merridale.
Soviet troops putting down rebellions in E. Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, and Russian troops in both attacks on Grozny in the mid-90′s had similar problems with maintaining a fast tempo.
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 12:04 PM
There is a vocal opposition to Putin within Russia, citing just one example. An opposition that pre-dates the Georgian Excursion.
One has to wonder how this Putin-esque Georgian thing really sits with the Russian people. Vast sums of money stolen from the Russian economy, previously accepted domestic political processes terminated by Putin, vast sums of money spent on the military at the expensise of basic consumer requirements within Russia, a growing very rich, very elite power class encouraged by Putin. Since he has not forced Saakishvili out of Tblisi, after several public announcements by Putin and Medvedev and others to that effect, and is now not necessarily bogged down in Georgia, but engaged in sitzkrieg after a failed blitzkrieg…one really has to wonder what Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov in Moscow is thinking right now.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 12:06 PM
The conscripted Russian peasant-soldiers are just kickin’ it, old school. Used to be, that looting was a standard right for soldiers, since pay is usually minimal. Old navies (the military forces, not the clothing stores) were really good at this, as the entire ship’s crew got a share of the profits from any ship captured.
Frozen Tex on August 17, 2008 at 12:07 PM
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 12:04 PM –
Losing tempo is how campaigns are lost, wars are lost.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Yeah, I have a friend in Russia I spoke to the other day…he said there is a lot of concern over what the US and Americans are thinking of Russia after the Georgian conflict especially.
JetBoy on August 17, 2008 at 12:11 PM
2theright on August 17, 2008 at 9:58 AM
Apparently despite the lease of the port, the Ukraine is going to require that Russia get permission to enter their waters. For what it is worth.
Cindy Munford on August 17, 2008 at 12:14 PM
With the cost of diesel and gas, they are waiting for American oil companies to start drilling and increase refining capacity.
saved on August 17, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Agree. The last prize money paid in the US Navy was in 1946? for a capture by an Omaha class CL led surface group in WWII.
But modern, effective militaries try to limit the looting. Unit cohesion can be lost very quickly with looting.
Ralph Peters wrote about that as a minor subplot in in his novel Red Army, but he also wrote that the Soviet won in Germany.
During the 80′s my defense plan for South Korea involved supermarket warehouses between the DMZ and Seoul. I guess it’s even more relevant today.
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Nationalism has many suitors.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 12:20 PM
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 12:19 PM –
The idea of putting Wal-Marts between the ROK-blocks and downtown Seoul does have a good bit of merit.
I worked the NK target for several years. P’yongyang a couple times boradcast video of “riots” going on in Seoul and Kwangju to show how bad the South Koreans government was. What they didn’t count on was the the rioters were better clothed than the average NK, and the videos showed hundreds of store fronts with an abundance of consumer goods showing plainly in the videos, and the NK on the street saw allof this and looked around his own neighborhood. Since then, they have pretty much gone back to using still photography instead of videos when harping on the nasty South Korean regime.
(OK cw, enough of that…back to Georgia.)
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 12:25 PM
An effective PR campaign would be to paint the Russians in Georgia as uncultured thugs. This is a hot button issue. Show the Gori bank robbery tapes.
Get lots of interviews of how the Russian troops stole from Georgians.
And then place more ads in Russia about how our highly compensated geeks are caring, loving spouses that put the woman’s happiness first. And they don’t drink as much. And have big houses with their own car. And American males live into their 70′s.
American geeks need Russian women. Hit Russian demographics hard.
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Soviet dissidents once explained how the Communists used to show American gangster movies to the public to illustrate how corrupt and decadent the US was. But the dissidents said that the movies showed these criminals being given trials and lawyers and they marveled that in the US even “bad guys” had so many rights and liberties.
Mirabile dictu, dialectical materialism meets the law of unintended consequences.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 12:31 PM
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 12:27 PM –
Almost married (well, really really considered it) a Russian woman…after my divorce, of course. Wonderful lady. Smart. No, truly brilliant. Made me look like a putzing fourth-grader with her intellect. The beta-male inside of me just couldn’t handle that. Her take on Russian men? Drunks. A cultural imperative, she said. Which is why, with her doctorate in mathematics, she got out and headed West.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 12:33 PM
No, loans aren’t help. That’s investment. There was no help to Russia. There was investment and bribes of Russian officials. Nobody gave money to “Russia”. You can’t give money to “Russia”.
So keep threatening… with nothing.
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 12:45 PM
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 12:45 PM –
So, what sort of “help” did you have in mind that we, apparently, haven’t provided?
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 12:53 PM
This is what we need to be focusing on politically right now. Of course education is a wonderful thing, but we can’t count on getting Joe sixpack to understand that he’s being lied to dozens of times a day when he keeps hearing the media refer to Russian efforts to re-form the Soviet Union as “Peacekeeping.”
But this is pretty simple: The Russians have told all of their neighbors that if they make any attempt to build air DEFENSES, Russia will invade their country. We only have about 2% of the media, but this is a message we can still get across.
logis on August 17, 2008 at 12:54 PM
Please, when I use the word “Russia” I’m talking about various government and private entities or enterprises.
Loans aren’t help? The US and West was simply supposed to give them a blank check? And then go into Russia and setup the institutions to distribute the money?
In essence, then, you’re arguing that unless we went into Russia and took control of the country and distributed free money and food, we weren’t helping? Were we supposed to run the country?
Lordy.
How about technical assistance? Our technicians/experts going to Russia and training Russians how to establish a stock market and banks and legal system, et cetera?
That’s no help?
Item:
Who is to blame for that failure?
You have an odd definition of help.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 12:56 PM
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 12:56 PM –
When Gorbachev lost the USSR, there were less than a handful of Russians on the ground inside Russia who had any actual real experience with capitalism…wages and earnings, productivity, finance, market forces, etc..
Jeff Sachs was the most notable economist with a huge portfolio who tried. There were others, most provided by private American businesses.
Given that almost ALL Russians in decision-making positions were there solely because of their having been former apparatchiks and nomenclatura, in essence not being in those positions because of expertise but because of former Party loyalities…the “old” could not, would not, relinquish control to any sort of real free market, subject o market forces and not protected by Russian government interventions.
Thus, the ineptitude and corruption…and the failure of our efforts, and Russian “efforts” to advance Russia from state-economy to a free market.
The Russians, as do many many on the left, here in America, do not comprehend that the free market is not a market that guarantees success. It guarantees failure…unless one understands that market fully.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Yes, but the failure lays at the feet of those corrupt and inept Russian figures and not at our feet.
We made efforts – e.g., low interest loans by the IMF that were guaranteed with US dollars – to help the Russians transition from the command economy to a free market.
We provided technical assistance and other non-monetary aid to the country.
Freevillage, for some unfathomable reason, thinks all of this assistance wasn’t “help.” I’m not sure what he thinks it is.
Or, more important, what he thinks we should have done. Take over the entire country? Go there and take control of the various institutions and ministries and run it ourselves?
We neither had the capacity or the resources to run the country.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 1:10 PM
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 1:10 PM –
Yes, the failure is at the feet of the Russians, solely.
A paradox, isn’t it? Help is not help. By not taking over the country we allowed the country to fail? But had we taken over the country we’d be imperialistic exploiters?
The free market does not work like that. No guaranteed outcomes. None. I asked freevillage, but no response, as to what constitutes “help” in his vision.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 1:14 PM
I don’t have anything in mind. I have said as much. I don’t think the US should provide any help to Russia. I don’t think it would be good for Russian if they did.
My point is very simple. When you threaten somebody with something, there must be a way to avoid that. Like, I can tell you do this or else I’ll crush your scull. For the threat to yield any effect, you must actually believe that I’m capable of delivering it AND I will not do what I threaten to do if you comply with my demands.
We know that Gorby at some point was promised no expansion of NATO. The West simply lied. The NATO expanded despite the promise. Note how I’m not discussing whether the expansion of NATO is generally good or bad (it’s good). I’m saying promises by the Western government are worth nothing.
Nowadays, we have a similar or worse situation. In the sense that… what is bad that you promise not to do? Or what good would you do if Russia complied? Why would Russia believe the US anyway? What in the past suggests that they should? The US policy towards Russia is driven by the imperative “Russia = evil”. It’s not about communism, it’s not about bad foreign policy. It’s about “Russia – amoral nation, Russians are drunks etc”
Russia should behave solely out of its own self-interest. Which doesn’t dictate that they occupy as many countries. It dictates that they hold their own and let others do the same. At any case, it’s pointless to pay attention to those who simply despise the Russian people. Expecially when they are largely impotent anyway. In the time that it took Russia to beat Hitler, they can’t even win the War in Iraq. Let the US talk sh1t but do the right thing.
No, unfortunately I’m not sure that Russia will do the right thing. It’s a big problem. But again listening to haters isn’t a solution to this problem.
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 1:21 PM
His argument – which is basically true – is that the country didn’t have the structure to use much of the assistance we gave them.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, elements/remnants of the KGB and Russia mafia filled the vacuum and siphoned off or stole much of the aid.
True.
But we also tried to create alternatives to these groups; we trained technicians and others to develop alternative means of running the country. We provided material and technical help to the Russian people and government.
The fact that the enterprise was so enormous, so costly, so difficult doesn’t mean we didn’t try to “help” the Russians make that transition.
I’m not sure what more we could have done. We didn’t have the ability to literally take the nation over a la the British in India. Even if we did, the backlash would have been enormous.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Terrific.
We’ve gone in circles for three hours.
Our “promises” to Gorbachev ended when the Soviet Union did.
And we wouldn’t be expanding NATO if Putin and his thugocracy hadn’t been going around for the past decade threatening nuclear war, killing journalists, threatening a cutoff of oil and gas, and arresting the political opposition.
Act like he wants to be a member of the civilized world and he’ll be treated accordingly.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 1:26 PM
He left out the numerous times UK airspace was violated by Russian bombers, and that fighters were sent up to scramble.
MadisonConservative on August 17, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Imperialist!
logis on August 17, 2008 at 1:32 PM
Are you a zombie? Do you speak English?
How will Russia be treated? What does it mean “accordingly”? What will change relative to now?
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 1:34 PM
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 1:21 PM –
But Gorby, as you put it, is not an actor in the present scene. He relinquished this when he lost the USSR to Yeltsin’s Russia. He is merely a Russian from Stavropol who once in a while publishes an editorial or two.
There as NO expansion of NATO to the Near Abroad prior to Yeltsin. When the Near Abroad declared their own independence it was not done because they loved being part of the USSR or even part of Russia. They were recognized by other independent nations across the globe. As independent nations thay can enter into any sort of treaties they wish. We did not force any of them to become part of NATO. They asked, and after they met the criteria, some were accepted, others still have not been accepted. This is how independent states interact with each other.
So…promises made to a nation that does not exist anymore [the USSR] have to be kept long after that nation has vanished from the face of the world? Guess we have to recognize all the old treaties made with all the nations of the world that no longer exist. Wonder how Germany would take that…we had trade treaties with the DDR.
You argumentation is specious on that issue.
Russia should behave solely out of its own best interest. Yes. All independent nations should and do.
Pointless to pay attention to those who simply despise the Ruissian people?
I, sir, do not, have never, despised the Russian people. Much of my education in affairs of the world was provided to me by Russian people, among others, and that extends to my favorite dishes and music, and art, and literature. It is my not despising the Russian peeople that led me on an adult career path that worked to enable Russians to be Russians, not serfs of a Milovan Djilas’ described New Class.
[As for not winning the war in Iraq...you really have to pay attention, but your inclusion of that in your counter-argument is nothing but a distractor.]
I’m not sure Russia will do the right thing, either.
My hope is that Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov and his friends, nmeighbors and others will take their Russia back on their own…and topple the siloviki and Putin in the process and rid Russia of all the remnant apparatchiki and former nomenklatura. I would hope for a Russia envisioned by Solzhenitsyn, among others, free. dedicated to their own culture. Dedicated to a morality that has been absent in Russia for a century. But that isn’t going to happen unless and until Russians on their own stand up for Russia and Russians.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 1:41 PM
The fact that this term is relative to you after the man just invaded another country and attempted to take it over, leveling a major city in the process and killing untold numbers of civilians as well as members of the press, says volumes. You see no problem with Putin becoming a modern-day Genghis Khan.
MadisonConservative on August 17, 2008 at 1:42 PM
How about: cutting off loans, technical assistance, favorable trade agreements, entry into the G-7, finding alternative energy sources, aid in helping Russia dismantle its old nucear arsenal, et cetera, et cetera…
Not to mention military agreements with the “near abroad.”
If you think the West doesn’t have leverage over Moscow, you’re fooling yourself.
Frankly, your “Mother Russia must be defended” act is getting old.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 1:43 PM
There was a day when I believed in Russia, and helping. No more, and never again. The Russian people had a chance to free themselves and didn’t. That chance will never come again. The West was ready to help but not ready to do it for them. In retrospect I’m happy that not more dough was completely wasted. Quit insinuating that it’s the West and America’s fault. It all rests on the feet of the Russians. Period.
I agree with you that the Russians likely will not do the right thing, because they never have.
There are always exceptions, and not all Russians are bad. In fact, some are incredibly smart. They, however, do enforce the rule, which is that the Russian people, for some odd reason, don’t want to free themselves. First surfs, then subjects, then commies, then…whatever the state in the last 15+ years has been…then here they are. Not much hope, unfortunately. This makes me more sad than anything, for them, for us, for the world.
Russia could have been great, really great again, a partner in world leadership. It blew it, but only with the will and support of their own people.
Entelechy on August 17, 2008 at 1:48 PM
:)) Here’re facts.
1. It’s up to the West to decide if they want to support other countries joining the NATO.
2. The West said the NATO would not expand.
3. The West lied.
I don’t argue that they were legally prohibited from lying. It was within their rights to lie, and they chose to lie. My point is: Russia should remember that the West will lie if they think it’s to their advantage. Russian can’t take their word. It’s worth nothing.
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 1:50 PM
I am seeing a pattern here, one that is not at all unique.
I have seen it sitting in the Russian Tea Room in New York, and similar cafes in Paris, San Francisco and other cities, over the years. This pattern is so very similar to the circular argumentation of the old “Whites” the escapees and emigres from Tsarist times and their children. It boils down to their speaking in tongues, as it were, denying the realities of the present, harking back to faded and ancient glories of their aristocracy, and in their perfunctory argumentation, circular as it well is, they are fullfilling their role.
Getting any of them to actually engage, be part of the solution, that was another thing altogether.
But talk they did. And did again and again. Totally different lens, totally different reality. Lost, really. Stuck in a mindset of a time that never really existed, does not exist, save to give them a raison d’etre, as they sit in tea rooms and cafes, arguing how many Russian angels can sit on the head of a pin.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Ad hominem following. So unexpected. :)
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 1:53 PM
In a possibly related news development anthropologists have reported that Bears still $hit in the woods.
In another possibly related news development Tsar Vladimir Putin was reported to have had several surgical staples put into his neck after almost laughing his head off.
MB4 on August 17, 2008 at 1:55 PM
Like SteveMG says at 1:43pm, there is much we’ve held off from doing out of our deference to Russia’s concerns. The West has been trying to bring Russia into its group. Russia through its actions have scared all it’s neighboring countries and is giving them and the West a green light to form military alliances. That more than anything will damage Putin.
The Russians have been paranoid that everything the US does for security and defense in europe has been directed at them. Their recent behavior is one way to make that come true.
BryanS on August 17, 2008 at 1:56 PM
When you walk, swim, and fly like a duck, quit whining when we accuse you of quacking.
MadisonConservative on August 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 1:50 PM –
That “NATO lied” meme is getting old. We, America, are not NATO. Seems to be a good number of NATO nations that hasve acted in their own best interests along the way. We are indeed part of NATO, once the deciding member of NATO, but not any more. Those days are over.
Lie? How about responded to changes in a changing world? Stasis in global affairs is found only in textbooks as set-piece scenarios are played.
A Russia has never lied? Never lied to the West? Never lied to America? Never lied to anyone?
If you wish to have stasis then that is your realm, your perogative.
But the rest of the 7 billion or so inhabitants of the globe are in motion. People, countries, respond to that motivity every minute of every hour of every day. Those who choose stasis over motivity normally perish, figuratively or literally.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Ad hominem following. So unexpected. :)
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 1:53 PM
If you actually believe that any dissenting view based on observation of data, actions, is an ad hominen, then you are denying that there is any dissenting viewpoint.
I was not attacking the “Whites” and the old emigres, I was pointing out a simple observed phenomena, and stated so.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 2:00 PM
I don’t understand what this means. Russia should change it policy in Georgia because “there is much we’ve held off from doing out of our deference to Russia’s concerns”?
Is that your answer to my question?
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 2:02 PM
I think that’s largely true. It’s not ad hominem in any sense.
It’s a natural reaction by any people who once held a great empire. Muslims, British, French, et cetera.
Having lost a great empire, no longer a major player on the world scene, it’s understandable that the Russian people (broad strokes, please) take pride in military accomplishments or in thumbing their nose at the West.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 2:03 PM
It’s still true.
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 2:04 PM
My point:
1. The West should do what is best for the West.
2. Russia could never be, and should never be trusted, ever!
3. Russia could have been part of the West, but chose otherwise. Alas, shun it, and beware of it.
In the end I believe the Chinese people will free themselves, and together with the rest of the free world, witll keep Russia in check. It will be a few more years.
In spite of everything evil in the world, I still believe, yes call me naive, that people inherently are driven to be free.
I sincerely wish that freedom for the Russian people too. When they prove me wrong, I’ll gladly eat Herculean loads of crow.
Entelechy on August 17, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Well, freevillage, I had hoped for some sort of actual conversation…but unless you are buying the Stoli and piroshki and zakuski…I’ve other things to do than get caught up in the old tea room endless discussions yet again.
Been real…
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 2:05 PM
LOL.
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 2:07 PM
freevillage is incredibly representative of the Russian soul. Even here he can’t be free. It is a psychology I will never, ever, understand, unless he was little when he left there, or born here. Sorry, but I have not followed his past biography at all.
Entelechy on August 17, 2008 at 2:08 PM
With all of the problems we have on our plate (Iraq, Iran, major deficit problems, credit crunch, gas prices, sluggish economy), the US sure doesn’t need this headache.
Although I guess the argument is the neocons created this crisis to divert attention from those issues.
And elect McCain.
Rove, you magnificent bastard.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 2:09 PM
:)
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 2:10 PM
SteveMG, I’m very grateful for the timing. Better that they revealed their old colors, again, now, than when it’s too late. I believe the world, wussified as it appears, took notice.
Make no mistake that America did, the government and the people. We don’t know the conversations from government to government. I’d love to have listened in. But most importantly, the voters did. If it woul have happened a few months ago it would have been devastating timing.
Entelechy on August 17, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Entelechy on August 17, 2008 at 2:08 PM –
Have seen that Russian soul many many times…Мёртвые души…Gogol was right…trapped in circumstance.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Souls that, perhaps, divide the world into Russophiles and Russophobes?
Maybe. We Americans may be rightly accused of that.
And French, et cetera.
As I said, nationalism has many suitors.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Btw, freevillage, I’m very much into ethnic cooking and cook-book collections. I pick one up from wherever I’m at, no matter how small the village, or the city of the world. I do have several on Russian cooking and am very fond of them and the results. Can’t eat them too often due to milimetering :)
Entelechy on August 17, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Remember, wars are never lost by tactics and strategy. They are lost by readiness and logistics. You can have brilliant tactics but if you do not a LOC worth its salt, it is all over. Ditto on readiness.
- MWNN
MB4 on August 17, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Yes. For example, we have a genuine interest in a missile shield in Europe to protect against small nations who may be able to build a capacity for a few missiles they may use to threaten the US and our friends. We have bent over backwards to try to address Russian concerns that the missile shield directed at them. We’ve offered to share with them the technology, offered to allow them to inspect all such installations to have a clear picture of what we are doing.
None of that seems necessary or appropriate now. Now I say we just go ahead with our own self defense needs–Russian concerns be damned. Ukraine and Georgia in NATO, developing alternate energy routes that avoid Russian territory, block Russia from joining the WTO, kick Russia out of the G8, no longer coddle Russia on the public stage as a legitimate and responsible power, boycott the upcoming Olympics in Russia, put economic pressure on state held financial institutions especially those tied to government run companies like Yukos, target their country with new radio free europe style broadcasts to get around Russian media cencorship, etc
The above are all things we’ve held back from doing despite them being methods of advancing our preferences and policies. All the above are options at our disposal and we’ve not used them to date because we did not want to antagonize Russia. When Russia takes it upon themselves to invade their neighbors, however, Russia’s feelings are a little lower priority.
BryanS on August 17, 2008 at 2:16 PM
Good. Much better than my ramblings.
We have lots of foreign policy tools and instruments to use against Moscow. We’ve held back in an attempt to mollify Russian concerns. Some legitimate; some not.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 2:26 PM
BryanS, pretty much everything that you listed would go ahead regardless. And some of that isn’t even bad things. Russia hasn’t been let into WTO for a while now. Furthermore those who suport the harshest course of action against Georgia are vehemently opposed to WTO. They say: please, don’t let us! I support free trade, and I think WTO would be good. But Russia isn’t in WTO now, and your threat is: it’ll be like it is now! Wow, spooky.
Russia will be in G8. Europe will never vote for removing Russian from G8. This isn’t a threat. Plus, I don’t quite understand what is accomplished there. I guess, it’s a status symbol.
Boycotting of the Olympic games will not happen. France and Germany wouldn’t boycott. Hell, the US wouldn’t boycott.
Yukos doesn’t exist. Please update your propaganda brochure.
Radio free Europe?! :) Please familiarize yourself with Echo of Moscow, a strongly anti-government radio station, whose rating is… come on, guess… number one among FM talk radio. Few people choose to listen a state owned propaganda resource like “Free Europe”. But they wanna increase their broadcasting? Fine with me. I’m all for free speech. Even for state propaganda outlets like Russian TV or “Radio Free Europe”.
If you wanna fight propaganda in Russia, I’d suggest investing into cable TV. That way the Russians would have hundreds of channels to choose from.
All in all, I’m not impressed, really. And truly anti-American leaning Russians will be even less impressed.
freevillage on August 17, 2008 at 2:34 PM
freevillage is incredibly representative of the Russian soul.
Souls that, perhaps, divide the world into Russophiles and Russophobes?
Maybe. We Americans may be rightly accused of that.
And French, et cetera.
As I said, nationalism has many suitors.
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 2:14 PM
It is deeper than that. Gogol’s Dead Souls, an alagory of being trapped in circumstance. The Russian soul is not even looking to see a world divided into Russophiles and Russophobes and nationality has little to do with it. There is no action, no motivity…simply stasis…the Russian soul, well, it just is…that’s it. It just is.
Some of the best Russian literature of the classical age is very reflective of this “just is” vein of comprehension, cognizance.
As for Gogol…I much prefer Taras Bulba. Even though he died in the book, defeated, a victim of treason in many ways, the Ukrainian Cossacks, Taras Bulba’s people, stood up and made a damn good fight of it.
coldwarrior on August 17, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Hmm, that’s not Dostoevsky, obviously.
I.e., the conflict within the Russian “soul” between “east” and “west”.
Sound familiar? (cough).
SteveMG on August 17, 2008 at 2:46 PM
There is a reason Yukos does not exist anymore. There was criminal activity and misuse of power to seize Yukos for the financial betterment of Putin and his friends.
A good link is: http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.27367/pub_detail.asp
NaCly dog on August 17, 2008 at 2:46 PM
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