Russians pulling out of Georgia; French cease-fire attacked
posted at 8:10 am on August 14, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The Russians are going, the Russians are going … back into South Ossetia. Georgian government sources confirm that Russian tanks have re-entered Gori today to facilitate the withdrawal of forces from Georgia, clearing unexploded ordnance and retreating in a disciplined manner. Meanwhile, a new report casts the French peace proposal as a clumsy failure that gave Russia a context to march on Tbilisi:
Russian tanks have returned to the Georgian city of Gori, but only to help facilitate the pullout of their forces, Georgia’s Interior Ministry says.
Explosions heard in Gori Thursday were the result of Russian troops clearing unexploded ordnance, the Interior Ministry said.
Earlier, it said Georgian police had begun returning to Gori as Russian forces moved out.
The police would establish positions and checkpoints and try to keep law and order, the Interior Ministry said. Their return to the city was negotiated with Russia Wednesday.
Why did the Russians keep pushing towards the Georgian capital after the signing of the cease-fire with Mikheil Saakashvili? The French cease-fire turned out to be a surrender of Georgian sovereignty, giving Russia the right to claim a peacekeeper role throughout the entire nation and not just in the two breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazai. Nicolas Sarkozy played the role of Neville Chamberlain, according to the New York Times:
It was nearly 2 a.m. on Wednesday when President Nicolas Sarkozy of France announced he had accomplished what seemed virtually impossible: Persuading the leaders of Georgia and Russia to agree to a set of principles that would stop the war.
Handshakes and congratulations were offered all around. But by the time the sun was up, Russian tanks were advancing again, this time taking positions around the strategically important city of Gori, in central Georgia.
It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.
Why would Sarkozy agree to surrender Georgian sovereignty?
“I think it was presented as, ‘You need to sign on to this,’ ” the official said of Mr. Sarkozy’s appeal to the Georgians. “My guess is it was presented as, ‘This is the best I can get.’ ”
For anyone who studied the Munich summit of 1938, that sounds depressingly familiar. Rather than stand firm on behalf of an ally, France pushed them into a false peace agreement that essentially surrendered to an aggressor. At Munich, the tanks had not yet rolled across the frontier, allowing the fantasy of peace to give it a patina of victory for France and England for the six months before Germany rolled over the rest of Czechoslovakia.
Obviously, the cease-fire agreement did not chase the Russians back into South Ossetia. So what did? The unexpectedly strong American response is most likely responsible for the Russian reconsideration. George Bush went from oddly passive in the first hours of the crisis to angry within days. His order to start military airlifts to provide, ahem, “humanitarian” aid to Georgia probably took Russia by surprise. The EU move to kick Russia out of the G-8, where they don’t belong anyway, may also have gotten Putin’s attention.
It looks like the Caucasus will return to status quo ante, but only for a while. Like it or not, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have had de facto independence for at least a decade, and they have a strong military partner in Russia. Under similar circumstances, Kosovo got its independence recognized. Serbia wasn’t strong enough to hold Kosovo, and Georgia won’t be strong enough to hold these two provinces, either. I’d guess that an international negotiation will result in Tbilisi losing the two provinces within a year.
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From the link -
“U.S. officials said their two planes carried cots, blankets, medicine and surgical supplies — but the Russians insinuated that the United States, a Georgia ally, might have sent in military aid as well. U.S. officials rejected the claim.”
This is what sickens me the most. How hard would it be to have some anti-tank missiles in those shipment as the chance to get them in with the returning from Iraq Georgians was apparently thrown away.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 6:49 PM
I posited several days ago that this was Bush’s Churchill v. Chamberlain test. A couple of days ago I, apparently mistakenly, was leaning to Churchill, now I seem to have no choice other than Chamberlain.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 6:52 PM
Sigh, missing my point.
Putin’s actions were pretty predictable based on past actions, and Russia’s paranoia. Its like flashing a wad of cash in a bad part of town… the guy who robs you is wrong, but you are still pretty stupid for putting youself into that position…
This is a VERY bad time for this to blow up… we’re overstretched and Russia can really hinder us if they go into active opposition mode… whether its the UN, Iran, Afganistan, or Pakistan, or even Venezuela… they can really gum up the works for us…
We essentialy went out and picked a fight, while we were already in another fight… not smart on our part… and not neccesary to US interests either. Georgia would not have been invaded if WE were not supporting them in such an obtrusive manner. The Administration either was not worried about Russian responses, or as I believe, Bush misread Putin from the start (the whole looked in his eyes meme).
OH, and just FYI, I’m a coldwarrior meself… actually been in the Black Sea…
Face it, Russia is still in the big leagues… while the Bush Admin has been beating up on wimps… the Bear slept… so now Bush poked it in the dang eye and woke it up… not smart.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 7:02 PM
And now it would very much appear that although Bush was in for a penny, he is not up for a pound.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 7:06 PM
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 6:49 PM –
This has been a new game since last Wednesday. We are losing control of the ball.
As for
smugglingprovision of ammunition…surely one of the planes landing in Georgia should have been so outfitted, along with other supplies.The tempo is being set by the Russians. We are slow to respond. Thus, we should not respond, but act, and let the Russians respond. Take possession of the ball…keep possession. Once again, we have an opportunity to unite a good healthy portion of the world behind a common effort toward a common threat, and we are dithering and dropping the ball time and time again. Yes, we need a firm holding action in Georgia, but we also need to be rapidly and with all due effort marshall the countries and forces onto a singular sheet of music…and damn soon. Poland has taken a gamble this afternoon, Ukraine is about to do likewise. The Baltic states have put their neck on the block…and we dither. Shameful.
The goal? Putin must go. We have the means, and if we get countries other than “new” Europe behind us we can do it. But this dithering? Shameful.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 7:08 PM
It was within a generation that the West, led by America, took them from World Superpower to almost third world status by a combination of economic and political manuvering…
I disagree. Their downfall was mostly predicated by their confiscation of information. The Soviet Union fell at the advent of the personal computer. The Soviets just couldn’t keep up with the western world while continuing to restrict information.
As for the current topic at hand, the Georgians will be thrown under the bus by the west. Hell, they already have been with France talking them into a cease fire treaty that says nothing about the sovreign nature of Georgia.
I would just like to remind everyone the SO and A are sovreign portions of Georgia and Russian meddling in these territories for over a decade is what has brought this thing to a head. The “separatists”, funded and armed by Russia, fire some missles into Georgia proper and, when Georgia retaliates the cry goes out; war crimes!!! Does that remind you of anywhere else on the globe???
I think Georgia is screwed…
As an aside, the Washington Post published an Op-Ed by the pres of Georgia today. Last time I checked there were 350 comments. I read all of them and they are running 25 to 1 in favor of Russia… I find it amazing but, that is what public opinion is.
Georgia is lost. My advice would be for the U.S. to rally round Ukraine in order to stop the juggernaut.
Babs on August 14, 2008 at 7:12 PM
I heard today that we took 14 flights to transport 1800 Georgian troops back home. That’s like about 130 per flight. Why so many? Don’t we have bigger planes than that, or would that mean any equipment that bought in was also taken out too?
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 7:14 PM
You really think we have the power, political or economic, to dictate to Russia?
You know, those guys who still have nukes? who is on the security council? who supplies Europe with much of its oil and Naturual Gas?
Especialy when China will not get invovlved, and they can rely on states such as Syria and Iran?
And especialy when we do not have our own house in economic order?
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 7:16 PM
Military planes? not really… at least not any that could land on those airfields… we usualy “lease” airliners to fly large numbers of troops in and out of theatre… wouldn’t want to send airliners into a potential Fire fight…
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 7:19 PM
Wow.. then that must have been really nerve racking for the Russians to have that many military flights coming in and having to be sure not to hit any of them. ;)
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 7:22 PM
Yes, it is very sad when the small bread cats are braver in standing up to the Bear than the big breed cat who is suppose to be, and once was, the Lion.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 7:23 PM
We still have nukes too and our missiles will probably all work if it came to that (theirs, not so much), which I don’t think that it will. If we are so paralyzed because they have nukes we might as well ask them if the want Georgia, USA too.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 7:30 PM
coldwarrior,
“Guess he had better fashion sense than his old man.”
Maybe he just didn’t want to have to put 800 different patches on all his uniforms.
My son has one more year of NROTC, then on to flight school.
exhelodrvr on August 14, 2008 at 7:32 PM
The personal computer? The Soviet Union fell before there was even much use of personal computers.
As to the rest of your comments, I can’t disagree with much of them.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 7:40 PM
MB4 -
I don’t know what your history is but, I was using a personal computer and swapping all kinds of data in college in 1980!
Yeah, they were a tremendous pain in the neck but, the personal computer played a big part in university study way back in 1980.
I stand by my statement as information was freely swaped way back in 1980-90 in the western world while the Soviets were still controlling every piece of info coming into their countries. The insistance over the next ten years of continuing to control information threw the Soviets back by at least a decade. They were unable to compete with the west. It is my opinion that is why they went down.
Babs on August 14, 2008 at 8:01 PM
Mainframe IT.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Hard to comprehend a professional army made up of drunken, undisciplined louts. No wonder their system doesn’t allow much independent problem solving in the lower ranks. Guess I’m a bit spoiled by the high quality of our guys/gals.
a capella on August 14, 2008 at 8:04 PM
I just heard SecDef Gates say on the radio news that the United States would not use any military force.
As far back as I can remember no American President, or someone speaking for him, has ever publicly ruled out force.
Bush has said many times that military force was not ruled out in dealing with Iran, even though it’s looking less and less likely and maybe well he has never intended to.
Actually stating that military force is ruled out, which presumable it has been, is worse, much worse that ruling it out in private.
This would seem to me, at this time anyway, to be Bush giving Putin the green light to continue raping Georgia.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 8:09 PM
MB4 – I know for a fact that U.S. destroyers are currently steaming into the Black Sea…
A U.S. destroyer is the most lethal boat on the planet…
Give it a week and the fleet will be there.
It will be interesting to see what the soviets, er, Russians do then…
Babs on August 14, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 7:16 PM –
“You really think we have the power, political or economic, to dictate to Russia?”
Yes. But with caveats. We have the great potential power politically, militarily and economically to take Putin down. Potential, that if not asssembled soon, and damn soon, will be lost pretty much forever.
Never in any of my posts said it was going tobe easy. And not being Geroge Tenent, I’ll never say its a slam dunk…in fact I have said quite a few times a tough row to hoe in front of us.
But the alternative? Get eaten away by a series of small wars, see allies crushed and all we can offer is words of support, then find that our dependence on foreign energy is a rapidly closing noose around our necks? Find that in one generation all that America has built and stands for is suddenly soemthing for the history books, if they are allowed to be printed. Not a legacy I want to leave my grandkids.
We knew in 1942 that we’d have to invade Europe and take out Japan…that was the gist of the intitial operations orders.
Getting to a point where we could actually begin to implement those orders didn’t come until late 1943, and 1944. Things were different then. We had time, we had resources, we were on a war footing, mobilized, and crafted allegiences as we needed them. But, it was an uphill struggle until we crossed the Rhine and a struggle right up until August 45 when we were licking our wounds and burying our dead on Okinawa. The same goals in mind.
This dithering around, playing into Putin’s strengths, while Putin plays with allies fears…not a game plan I want to take out of the book.
Common sense in America got lost in academia. We need a few good NCO’s out there with a full and complete understanding of Tsar Putin and the New Russia, with a keen eye on hitting him at his weak points and setting the stage for his removal by his own people, with impetus from us and our chosen course of action along the way.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 8:20 PM
I would prefer to be less pesimistic, but it’s probably just more smoke and even if not it will probably be “a day late and a dollar short”.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Hmmm… as a retired NCO myself, my biggest challenge was reigning in Junior Officers, especialy butterbars, who had no conception of what they were getting into.
“IF” Russia decides to side with the Jihadists, and other anti America elements in the world (such as Venezuela), it will create a sitaution that I don’t believe we have the economic or political will to win quickly… it adds to an already bad situation that we find ourself in.
Heck, we can’t even project enough power to stop Iran from getting Nukes… and you want us to confront a Nuclear Power?
Nighmare… Russia, who has suitcase Nukes (I personaly know this) hands said nukes off to rougue states and Al Q and then declares that they were “stolen”….
Russia hand Scientists over to Iran to help their program… along with a few “plans”…
Russia is NOT the main enemy of the Jihadists, and my decide that the enemy of my enemy is my allie…
And I still maintain that we picked this fight through our own actions… laudible as our intentions may have been, in a real Politik kind of world they were stupid.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Ret. Navy here… no Fleet can sustain Ops in restricted waters against Land based Air… Even a FULL three carrier task group only carrys 150 or so planes MAX… Russia can put up many times that number if they forward stage… we are playing in their backyard…
A few destroyers (which I’ve served on) while lethal, cannot stand in the face of both Land based Air, and Surface to Surface missles…. not even counting submarine assets…
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Here’s the transcript. I watched the briefing.
The MSM is using a soundbite. You can watch the briefing on the C-SPAN online channel too.
I think Gates was referring to just as you asked above, he did not have military equipment on the planes with humanitarian aid. Evidently Russia has been complaining about that and accusing us of doing just that. The gaggle of reporters did laugh after he said it like it was some kind of inside joke or something. He referred to this situation. Later a reporter asked him just that question you ask and he responded. You’ll see it in the transcript or the online video.
There was a lot of information at that briefing about the details.
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 8:57 PM –
I doubt the Russians will “side” with the jihadists…this is one of their own homeland security issues. They leveled Chechnya, twice, and a lot of Chechen jihadis went to Iraq or Afghanistan to die there, but the at home jihadi threat in Russia is very much alive, and has grown, a lot.
Economic warfare as we shore up and train new Europe, and get old Europe off the dime, economic warfare plays to the weakest link in Putin’s Russia. We need to freeze Russian assets here in the US. Europe needs to do likewise. We need to lift ALL restrrictions on domestic oil exploration and production immediately. We need to work with our financial allies to shut down the free flow of cash to Russia. We need to forbid US or allied companies from doing business in Russia or with Russian “allies.” We need to get the G-7 fully on board for the long haul.
At the same time, we need to pay attention to our own defense needs and requirements.
We need to pump up the volume of RFE/RL and VOA.
There are other measures short of war that can be taken…really don’t want to post a litany of them…I’ve been eating up HA bandwidth like a drunken computer junkie of late.
But the point is, going to war, conventional war, is not the first best option. It should be the last best option.
Time is not on our side, however, and this needs to be driven home to America and Europe and the G-7 and all other players who are not part of the Putin planet.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Problem with your whole scenario is that America does not even control our OWN banks, let alone banks in foreign nations.
Without a total rewrite of the West’s economic law, government CAN’T force true economic warfare… and I for one do NOT want to give our political class that much more power.
Even if the West could decline to do business with Russia (somthing that is patently absurd given the amount of oil and Nat Gas they send to Europe), there are now enough banking assets it China and other nations that don’t like America to see them through.
Remember, their trade balance is in their favor right now, while our is just the opposite.
Would be nice if we could do it… but total economic warfare from the West is not feasible.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 9:55 PM
In wartime, as we have seen under FDR (I know, bad example, but the only one at my fingertips) the executive branch can do many things otherwise not usually acceptable. We did a few things with economic warfare in the 80’s and very early 90’s against adversary nations that worked very well. They never knew what hit them until well after.
This is war.
The sooner the dunderheads in DC understand this the better off we will all be.
If there isn’t a presidential Finding on the DNI’s desk by tomorrow morning regarding economic warfare and other means short of war to tackle the Putin problem, then we may as well enjoy the ride, spend what we can, and be prepared to tell our grandchildren how it was when America and being American actually meant something.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Fine, get Congress to declare war? and we can do somthing…
But creating a totally unconstitutional power grab beyond what is already in place for the WOT???
Not worth loosing our soul and American ideals of Freedom over Bush mismanaging the situation in Georgia.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 10:23 PM
We didn’t declare war during the entire Cold War. We “fought” smart. We need to “fight” smart today.
As for American banks and businesses, there are already laws on the books, which, if used judiciously (sp?) can be applied effectively.
Getting the G-7 in line is not impossible in the present setting.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 10:42 PM
Back to page 1 of this interesting thread (which I’m not supposed to be reading—preparing for trip), but CW has been hinting around at “not necessarily literally” for a while now.
Decapitation of an enemy, or potential enemy, is always an option. But I suspect that the resurgence of the Russian bear, fueled by nationalized oil and gas and the huge runup in prices, is not dependent upon one man. Putin may have consolidated much power, but he undoubtedly represents widespread sentiment in the hierarchy, and maybe among the common people as well. If something happened to Putin, like as not there’s another waiting in the wings.
We missed our chance, if chance it was, to pour salt on the ashes of the Soviet Union, and destroy any likelihood of its resurrection. But that has never been our way.
When Secty. Gates said we will not intervene militarily, he spoke the truth. We will not tempt a nuclear ICBM power into over-reacting, period. There may be a line we will not let the Russians cross (Ukraine? Poland?) but Georgia is surely not it.
CW’s strategy of pursuing economic ‘warfare’ is probably the only viable alternative, but how successful can that be while Russian is Europe’s main supplier of energy?
There is one wild card, and that is China. Not so long ago Richard Nixon went to China in the hopes the Chinese would become a counterweight to the Soviets. They could still (or again), and that might in turn take some of the worry out of the growing Chinese threat in the Pacific.
MrLynn on August 14, 2008 at 10:53 PM
No! Definitely not China! The price would be too great. Taiwan would be gone within a year, and Japan would be assailed mercilessly.
We must not use China at all, we must contain them – they are the real 800 pound gorilla.
OldEnglish on August 14, 2008 at 11:16 PM
MrLynn on August 14, 2008 at 10:53 PM –
My contention has been and remains that “Sha’mat!” against Putin (and the “siloviki”) must come from within Russia. Our policy would be to set the stage.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 11:37 PM
Ah, so you are saying that the key words here are “in this situation”?
If so, then I got ya.
MB4 on August 15, 2008 at 5:52 AM
Easier said than done, methinks, especially with Europe now on the Russian teat.
/Mr Lynn
MrLynn on August 15, 2008 at 7:13 AM
Difficult indeed, but seems like a few Russians inside Russia, opposition to Putin, tend to see my use of economic warfare to topple the Putin Dynasty as something the West should do.
Kasparov’s comments in the WSJ are in line with a good part of what I have been trying to get across since last Thursday. Pay particluar attention to the last few paragraphs.
coldwarrior on August 15, 2008 at 10:55 AM
Yes, I think it’s important to hear all the words that are said especially in situations like this because all the words have meaning.
Texas Gal on August 15, 2008 at 11:38 AM
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