Russians pulling out of Georgia; French cease-fire attacked
posted at 8:10 am on August 14, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The Russians are going, the Russians are going … back into South Ossetia. Georgian government sources confirm that Russian tanks have re-entered Gori today to facilitate the withdrawal of forces from Georgia, clearing unexploded ordnance and retreating in a disciplined manner. Meanwhile, a new report casts the French peace proposal as a clumsy failure that gave Russia a context to march on Tbilisi:
Russian tanks have returned to the Georgian city of Gori, but only to help facilitate the pullout of their forces, Georgia’s Interior Ministry says.
Explosions heard in Gori Thursday were the result of Russian troops clearing unexploded ordnance, the Interior Ministry said.
Earlier, it said Georgian police had begun returning to Gori as Russian forces moved out.
The police would establish positions and checkpoints and try to keep law and order, the Interior Ministry said. Their return to the city was negotiated with Russia Wednesday.
Why did the Russians keep pushing towards the Georgian capital after the signing of the cease-fire with Mikheil Saakashvili? The French cease-fire turned out to be a surrender of Georgian sovereignty, giving Russia the right to claim a peacekeeper role throughout the entire nation and not just in the two breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazai. Nicolas Sarkozy played the role of Neville Chamberlain, according to the New York Times:
It was nearly 2 a.m. on Wednesday when President Nicolas Sarkozy of France announced he had accomplished what seemed virtually impossible: Persuading the leaders of Georgia and Russia to agree to a set of principles that would stop the war.
Handshakes and congratulations were offered all around. But by the time the sun was up, Russian tanks were advancing again, this time taking positions around the strategically important city of Gori, in central Georgia.
It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.
Why would Sarkozy agree to surrender Georgian sovereignty?
“I think it was presented as, ‘You need to sign on to this,’ ” the official said of Mr. Sarkozy’s appeal to the Georgians. “My guess is it was presented as, ‘This is the best I can get.’ ”
For anyone who studied the Munich summit of 1938, that sounds depressingly familiar. Rather than stand firm on behalf of an ally, France pushed them into a false peace agreement that essentially surrendered to an aggressor. At Munich, the tanks had not yet rolled across the frontier, allowing the fantasy of peace to give it a patina of victory for France and England for the six months before Germany rolled over the rest of Czechoslovakia.
Obviously, the cease-fire agreement did not chase the Russians back into South Ossetia. So what did? The unexpectedly strong American response is most likely responsible for the Russian reconsideration. George Bush went from oddly passive in the first hours of the crisis to angry within days. His order to start military airlifts to provide, ahem, “humanitarian” aid to Georgia probably took Russia by surprise. The EU move to kick Russia out of the G-8, where they don’t belong anyway, may also have gotten Putin’s attention.
It looks like the Caucasus will return to status quo ante, but only for a while. Like it or not, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have had de facto independence for at least a decade, and they have a strong military partner in Russia. Under similar circumstances, Kosovo got its independence recognized. Serbia wasn’t strong enough to hold Kosovo, and Georgia won’t be strong enough to hold these two provinces, either. I’d guess that an international negotiation will result in Tbilisi losing the two provinces within a year.
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It was not and is not up to the French to save Georgia. It is up to the United States of America. We are the super power. We are the ones the Georgians look to. The Georgians had 2,000 (a lot for their population) helping us in Iraq, not helping the French someplace. This was and is a test of us far more than it was and is of the French.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 1:01 PM
+2
To me, anyone using the word “fascist” these days gets tuned out. Libs in this country don’t have a clue what that word really means and/or implies.
Grow up, Hippies. Just because someone doesn’t agree with your pie-in-the-sky utopian dreams, doesn’t make them fascist. You wouldn’t be able to be hippies if you actually lived in the country you seem to imagine we are.
tickleddragon on August 14, 2008 at 1:04 PM
The French have been solid allies of the Russians for decades. Letting the French broker a BS ceasefire was stupid.
Not that the New Europe folks needed the reminder, but perhaps we Americans still do….remember Chirac telling them all to shut up? Sarko is better than Chirac, but he’s still French. Coming here to make a nice speech before congress doesn’t change that fact.
funky chicken on August 14, 2008 at 1:11 PM
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 1:01 PM –
Sarkozy went to Moscow not as President of France, but as President of the EU. Minor legal and diplomatic difference.
But, yes, it is up to the United States, not just to support Georgia in as thorough and rational way as we can, but also to get off the dime and get the “West” and industrialized Asia as well, to come to grips with a totally new phenomenon in town.
We have a threat…a really really big one, one that makes the jihadists seem like a minor irritant…and as yet, we have dozens and dozens of people, politicians, the “West” in general, going off, mostly half-cocked, in hundreds of directions as a resuslt of this past week’s events.
It does not lend to solutions. Not one bit.
But it does follow a pattern that Putin seems to have anticipated. Misdirection, maskirovka, all part of the Putin program.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 1:11 PM
.
I was thinking of the move as putting the capital farther from the Chinese, who feel that Kazakhstan is a ‘lost province’ ala Russia and Ossetia, though your earthquake scenario makes sense as well. Last time I was there, there was a lot of whispered talk, with glances eastward.
Think_b4_speaking on August 14, 2008 at 1:12 PM
Fox has multiple LIVE reports, right now, that Russia is NOT pulling back, but have advanced… destroyed more ships… and are damaging military bases and airfeilds…
This operation is following an old concept from the Middle Ages, called the punishment RAID… Russia will pull back once they have inflicted enough damage on Georgia to make it clear that they have no defense… Fear works folks…
And I might add, this is the EXACT same tactice I have advocated against Iran… you don’t invade to keep, you invade to knock down its military capability, and economy, and then leave… and if they don’t learn, you do it again…
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 1:16 PM
While Georgia is still a sovereign nation, Georgia should be requesting large amounts of American reconstruction aid to repair all the damage that was done by the sons-of-#itches, barbarians and chronic drunks with no regard for human life, otherwise known as the Russians. The United States should then send in large numbers of Army Engineers, who would of course bring with them large numbers of Army Infantry to “talk to for company”, who would of course bring in large numbers of Army Artillery and Armor, to “talk to for company”.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Agree. At least it didn’t take Sarko 4 or 5 days to realize that what was happening in Georgia was serious business.
There are two take-aways from this episode, for me:
1-Putin is aggressive as hell, and cannot be counted on for anything; and
2-the present team, on our side, is not up to the job any more. In this I include not just the CIA but the policy makers including specifically Secretary Rice, our resident Russia expert, and, regretably, President Bush.
james23 on August 14, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Which is also the model we should have used for Iraq.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Sarko stepped into a vacuum left by the inexplicable absence of the leader of the free world.
james23 on August 14, 2008 at 1:22 PM
This will eventually end up with Georgia being flanked by two Russian puppet territories with chronic border fighting as the puppets try to chip away. In the long run, Putin will lose more than he gains.
a capella on August 14, 2008 at 1:26 PM
OK, not a Russian appologist, but folks are not looking at this whole situation from their viewpoint at all…
Tell me, what would be Americas response if Russia, or China, suddenly started equiping, training, and arming Mexico? Actualy had “military advisers” there? And was negotiating for permanent Radar installations? And was negotiating with multiple Central and South American countries to enter a Pact with them?
We won the Cold War… and just like the WW1 Allies after WW1, pushed too hard and set up a confrontation later.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 1:33 PM
I quoted the whole thing because it is a brilliant strategy.
What do you think Prince Harry was doing in France before Agincourt? He wasn’t trying to conquer it, not with his small troop numbers. It was a Revanche raid.
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Bush was trying to get the Europeans to step up. This is in their back yard, after all, and it is their oil pipeline at stake. And we’re just a little busy at the moment. It was not out of bounds for the U.S. to give the Euros a couple of days to make their move. Of course, the French whipping out the ever-ready white flag should not be a surprise to anyone.
aero on August 14, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Well said. This fact is ignored far too often.
macummings on August 14, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Not the best example as Mexico does not need any help in invading the United States. They have got tens of millions of invaders here all ready without needing any help at all from the sons-of-#itches, barbarians and chronic drunks with no regard for human life, otherwise known as the Russians nor from the Olympics cheating Chinese who try to poison our pets.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Fred weighs in!
MadisonConservative on August 14, 2008 at 1:44 PM
The Russians were in South Ossetia before this all happened. Not the best of circumstances certainly, but not a new development.
The larger problem of course is rather or not the rest of Georgia can survive. I do think the US needs to stand with them, but I just do not think most Americans are prepared to fight a war with Russia to that end.
But if our people are there, it might complicate things for the Russians at the very least.
Hopefully we will know more in the near future.
Terrye on August 14, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 1:16 PM
absolutely spot on! I’ve also been harping on this with friends. Not only this tactic viable it is legal since it is enshrined in nothing less than our Constitution where it is called the “punitive expedition”.
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 2:04 PM
MB4:
The situation we have with Mexico is not even remotely the same. My grandparents were Okies back in the early 30’s. They went to California to work the camps in the Dust Bowl. They left a couple of years later and moved back to Oklahoma. There were Mexicans working there then and that is over 70 years ago.
That is not to say we should open the border to all and sundry. I am sure way too many people took advantage of the situation and came up here to do more than just pick fruit. But this can not be called a military invasion. Not the same thing at all.
Terrye on August 14, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Holy mother of God!
Did I call it a military invasion?
No, and it doesn’t have to be thanks to so many politicians in this country, and you know who there are, and that is perhaps the most sickening point of all.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Yep, and with Iran, it could be an extended Air Campaign against military and economic targets…
Take out every bridge, pipeline, oil facility, and declare Iranian Ports Free Fire zones… and they’d sue for peace very quickly.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Actualy, you didn’t get my point…. which was what would AMERICA do about it?
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:23 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Not only would they sue for peace but there would not be a “next time” with them or frankly any other country for a long time after such punishment.
Object lessons are something that should be brought back into the realm of the military instrument and it would not be needed as often as it is.
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Terrye on August 14, 2008 at 2:04 PM –
Maybe not a military invasion of a classical type…but a fifth column nonetheless. There is also a major drain on our economy, limited funds gonig to deal with a problem that should not have been allowed to arise in the first place. Legal immigration is a perfectly fine thing, one of the strengths of the U.S.. But illegal imigration…another horse of quite another color. I have witnessed MS-13 within a few miles of our Nation’s Capitol. I have wtinessed it in Detroit, in Cleveland, and in a few other midwest American cities…MS-13 gets here not by legal means but by illegal crossings of our border…and if things get tough, I doubt that they will go along with the American way…thus tying up manpower, money, and resoruces to deal with a threat that should not have been allowed to be here.
In the military we develop force-multipliers. Illegal immigrants can be seen from a military perspective as force-depletors.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Yep, shades of Linebacker II during Viet Nam… Gen. Giap said in his memoirs that it was the ECONOMIC impact of that bombing which brought North Viet Nam to the peace table.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Actually, I did get your point, but I had other things on my “agenda” and you gave me an opportunity and thanks for doing that.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 2:41 PM
As for Iran…it is a distractor from larger issues, but nevertheless, we should clear a path, remove roadblocks, to Israel’s ability to hit Iran, and provide necessary support in conjunction with Israeli plans and targetting. Let them hit the nuke facilities…we can take care of quite a number of other targets. Unfortunately, if we wait too long…could be way too late.
This will, however, totally upset the apple cart in both Iraq and Afghanistan, for the short term, perhaps longer. And perhaps all across the Middle East. Surely Russia will provide aid to Iran and Syria, perhaps unleash Syria to dutifully try try again vis-a-vis Israel. And the jihadis will rearm and be revitalized…
Nothing about any of this is going to be easy or cost free.
And we cannot let this Iran thing distract us from ultimate goals. Hitting Iran is not an end…it is very much a beginning of another “Long War.” Defining that Long War, now there is something way above my pay grade.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 2:47 PM
From Trackbacks
What the H are they smoking over at “American Pundit”?
It is George W. Bush who is suppose to be the Leader of the Free World, not Nicolas Sark-whatski, even never minding a number of other things such as the fact that George W. Bush has been the President of The United States of America for almost 8 years and Nicolas Sark-whatski has been President of France for a little over a year.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Amazing thing is that as the capabilities to punish have become more antiseptic the will to use them has diminished. Requiring messier interventions. Why this inverse relationship do you think?
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 2:58 PM
I’ve only been sucker punched [physically] once in my life. The SOB shook my right hand and nailed me with a left hook that broke my nose and put me on the floor.
Seeing a smiling Putin shaking hands with a smiling Bush in the Olympic Stadium just prior to the Ruskies, little Georgia expedition brought the olde incident to mind.
Come to think of it; I believe Putin’s a southpaw too.
Misdirection indeed…!
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Its an American thing… IMO…
We’re a very weird culture… we tend to hamstring ourselves from using our own power.
We could easily be an Oil EXPORTER, but hamstring ourselves due to “environmental” concerns (even though we would drill clearner than any other country).
We send Billions to fight Aids in Africa, when our own hospitals are going bankrupt because of the Federal mandate to treat illegals…
We could stop Iran in a hearbeat, with very little loss, but we’d tick them, and others off…
We are so worried about being LIKED, that we don’t worry about being RESPECTED… and do stupid things because of it.
Stems from how we choose our Leaders… its a popularity contest… therefore they think everything should be a popularity contest.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Good point.
silverfox on August 14, 2008 at 3:23 PM
And to expand on my own point… this Presidential election is a perfect example of this…
People REALLY LIKE Obama, even though he hasn’t done a dang thing in his carreer, except be LIKED…
People RESPECT McCain much more, and he has much more experience… but some of his natural allies (Reps) don’t aggree with some of his stands on issues…
So Reps, who will vote on issues, may not vote for McCain… while Obama being likeable, may very well get elected by those shallow voters who will vote on that alone…
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:27 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Well whatever it is we don’t maximize our capabilities and it ends us costing more in lives, treasure, and credibility.
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:27 PM
you’re right. and I know that an Obama as CinC would be an unmitigated disaster that would exacerbate all we’ve discussed before. talk about not maximizing potential! how about criminal neglect of our potential!
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:13 PM –
I have to agree. The public angst demonstrated over things that haven’t happened yet is way out of line with the realities. Ever since Mogadishu, the game plan from the politicians has been…we’ll “fight” but we can’t let any of our guys get hurt.
My son just re-enlisted for another hitch in the Marines, my youngest son. He did a tour in Fallujah. Actually enjoyed it. So, I am not one to be callous about committing US forces willy-nilly. Wasn’t too fond of it when I was in uniform, either.
But, if you do not want to use it…either disband it…or find alternative means to resolve conflicts with a lot of folks who do not agree with our PC touchy-feely American way of life.
Tattoos and dew rags was pretty much the uniform of the day for most of the
SovietRussian soldiers in Georgia…thugs. Touchy feely types? No. But they’ll touch you. And you’ll feel it. But as effective soldiers on the ground, other than armed thugs with little to no discipline?In my travels overseas over a few decades working for the Man, I found that we are respected most when we say what we are gonig to do and then do it and do it well. We are not respected when we dither and fret and then do little or nothing. Respect in international relations is far far more valuable than being liked or loved.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:35 PM
Thanks for the link. I liked the end:
silverfox on August 14, 2008 at 3:44 PM
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:35 PM
look no further than the Arabs. they respect force and power while they disdain the weak and cautious.
nothing less than lefty Thomas Friedman wrote about this in “From Beirut to Jerusalem” in a chapter called “Hama Rules” which describes the way Hafez al Assad put down a salafist rebellion centered arounf the syrian town of Hama. needless to say he erased the twon and everything that lived around its periphery and guess what no more salafist threat (to this day)
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 3:53 PM
A civilization in transition, from Type 0 to Type I [our present condition] might carry a strong risk of self-destruction since there would no longer be room for further expansion on the civilization’s home planet, similar to a Malthusian catastrophe.
Consider China, India, Russia and the US today. The messier interventions, you refer to; ameliorates the element of MAD, mutually assured destruction and still allows a pathway to a Type I civilization.
The conundrum remains; Is everyone wise enough to appreciate the situation?
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 3:56 PM
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 3:53 PM —
Spent a bit of time working in the Middle East. The Homs massacre is still something a lot of potential Arab “friends” and potential assets seem to dwell on, as I am sure today, our bailing out likety split from our “station” in Northern Iraq, and leaving behind laptops and discs with operational information on hundreds and hundreds of now-murdered Iraqis who were forming a viable threat to Saddam long long before we ever considered invading Iraq. Thank you, John Deutsch, along with Stan Turner, the worst DCI’s our nation has ever had to put up with.
But to get back to the point…following the strong horse runs across many many cultures.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:07 PM
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:07 PM
I met Deutsch in DC while he was DCI very aloof. Sounds like you’re talking about the fiasco involving Bob Baer.
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM
Russian tanks going further into Georgia, NOT pulling out
MadisonConservative on August 14, 2008 at 4:16 PM
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 3:56 PM
which is why I keep saying J Gocht that you need to give war a chance if you want to reach that Level 1. Imagine how cool it would be to have antimatter bombs that could wipe out all our enemies but yet fit in the palm of your hand. rapture!
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 4:17 PM
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:07 PM
don’t get me wrong I think what happened to Baer was inexcusable and symptomatic of what we’ve been discussing regarding our new found squeamishness.
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 4:20 PM
Shocka!
aero on August 14, 2008 at 4:21 PM
Ewwww… just saw a blurb…
Poland aggreed to put American Anti ICBM missles in Poland…
Countermoves are starting, expect to see a fast track invite to NATO for Ukraine next.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 4:23 PM
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM –
Bob Baer was a small part of that episode. He was one of our best when it came to being able to work in and among Syrians and Lebanese. In my opinion, a class act all the way, too.
Deutsch? Aloof? He had disdain for just about all of the Operations Directorate (the spies/case oifficers/covert ops types). He loved the analytic side, though. Typical college professor type…had his ideas, and if you parroted them, you got good grades. If not…well, a lot of us got out about that time.
He also had a bad habit of leaving classified information, the really good stuff, on conference tables at meetings with other departments and kept a lot of it at home, in his private non-GSA rated office safe, one his spouse had access to, as well.
He was sent over to CIA after one of my personal favorites and “friends.” Jim Woolsey quit. Even as DCI Jim could never get meetings set up with Clinton…wasn’t important to Clinton. Deutsch was sent over to “clean up” CIA of rogue agents and obstructionists by Clinton, after Jim’s departure.
Woolsey, a great guy, wonderful sense of humor, is now the “Green” advisor to McCain. He has some remarkable ideas about generating methanol from a variety of sources, a whole lot more efficient and cheaper than corn ethanol, and has been active in this for years now.
Talk about thread drift….sorry.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:25 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 4:23 PM –
The Poles understand. Simple as that.
Most Americans are sstill pouring over their Exxon road maps of the Peach State trying to find these funny named towns and villages in the news…
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 4:23 PM
Ukraine is probably a done deal because it would take a major move for the Russians to crowd them. When that happens the Russians will have lost the exclusivity of the black sea.
but when the baltics make a move the Russians are going to have another hissy fit.
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 4:29 PM
coldwarrior,
“My son just re-enlisted for another hitch in the Marines”
Thank you to your son.
exhelodrvr on August 14, 2008 at 4:29 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080814/ap_on_re_eu/poland_us_missile_defense
Linky about Poland deal.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 4:29 PM
exhelodrvr on August 14, 2008 at 4:29 PM –
Never thought he’d join the Corps. We are an old Army family going back to WWI-era. Guess he had better fashion sense than his old man. Combat photographer. Saw a lot. He loves it. Listened to too many of the wrong war stories from his dad, I venture. He’s the guy who stands up when everyone else is hunkering down just to get a good shot or some decent video.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:32 PM
Do not equivocate russia with america. Unlike america, russia has no right to worry about stuff like that because they’re the bad guys. NATO was set up to defend the free world from dictatorial aggression. Russia should mind its own business before someone finally gets fed up with them and bombs them so hard they turn into whiny peaceniks like japan or germany.
Darth Executor on August 14, 2008 at 4:33 PM
Ralph Peters of NY Post was up on your site and now it is down.
Best commentary on Putin yet. We have been out-bluffed and out maneuvered.
Admin better get ahead of the curve. Fox reporting 100 tanks on move to second largest city in Georgia. Status quo is untenable.
Gates and Rice should quit warning about relationship. They sound like immature school children who don’t get it. Putin does not care. Do they think this was planned overnight???
Starlink on August 14, 2008 at 4:35 PM
Ditto…..may not be true, but cease fire is so badly botched that tanks could roll into Tiblisi and still be within the framework.
Starlink on August 14, 2008 at 4:37 PM
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:25 PM
I met Woolsey once while he was DCI too. CS has suffered and the nation as a result from the squeamishness of the politically correct. Clinton and his 1995 reform was a disaster can you imagine Obama? Anyway way off topic…
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 4:39 PM
Starlink on August 14, 2008 at 4:35 PM –
Col. Peters along with Leon Aron and Frederick W. Kagan, are some of my favorites regarding Putin’s Russia.
Krauthammer may have the podium as a pundit, but he gets his best stuff from these guys.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:39 PM
History does not repeat itself.
But it does rhyme.
Sefton on August 14, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Starlink on August 14, 2008 at 4:35 PM –
There’s a link I posted over on the Putin thread…buried there somewhere…think I linked it to a “devil” comment, where the Peters article can be found.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Excuse me, but Russia is a nation state who has a very long history of being invaded, from both East and West. They have legitimate security concerns based on that past history. This permeates their worldview, and not understanding that worldview leads to situations like what is happening now.
It was within a generation that the West, led by America, took them from World Superpower to almost third world status by a combination of economic and political manuvering…
They ARE paranoid… but just because you are paranoid, it does NOT mean that people are not out to get you…
We are pushing their parnoia buttons… and then seem suprised that they (over) react…
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 4:42 PM
Paranoia is a weakness that can be exploited to our advantage if we approach it right, and carefully. There is a historical record of this going back generations.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:46 PM
LOL :)))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Unbelievable.
P.S. Those interested in the topic know what I said few days ago. So I will not bother reiterating.
freevillage on August 14, 2008 at 4:49 PM
Whoa genie, olde boy… My point was you gotta give peace a chance.
Isn’t it about time you started growing hybrid tomatoes, exotic orchids or take up kayaking?
Just a thought; perhaps, not so much…!
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 4:50 PM
The Army Corps of Engineers will also need to store lots of rockets in Georgia for ‘fireworks’, to remind them of the 4th of July.
Right_of_Attila on August 14, 2008 at 4:50 PM
Very true, if you are a Machiavelian type… instead of a politician who got there by being popular… our government is not really suited to a long term coherent international policy which would be able to take advantage of Russia’s paranoia… instead of being suprised by it overreacting to “our” moves.
Next up? Russia vetos any possible Iran sanctions, and sends more nuclear help to Iran, and starts funneling money and arms to “Nationalist” elements Pakistan (read Jihadists).
Pretty predictable at this point.
Oh, and China? sits back and is inscrutable, while laughing up its sleeve.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 4:52 PM
There’s an underlying betrayal, deep on a number of levels, and it begins with the opposition led by the German’s(Merkel) and the French(Sarko) to deny both Georgia’s and the Ukraine’s entrance into Nato last April:
Yea, the other day they all stood-around in a show of support for Georgia but give them a few weeks it’ll be, “Georgia? I know of no country called Georgia. The Ukraine? Yes, yes, we think we remember something, vaguely.”
Sarko & Merkel are better than Chirac & Schroeder but place any faith or trust in them? No way!
We’re getting jerked-around and doing nothing but going, ‘yup, yup, yup.’
Earlg on August 14, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Whose paranoia, cold?
John McCain’s and the nose-holding right’s?
alphie on August 14, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Yes Germany is soooooooo close to electing another NAZI and Japan just surrendered all political power to their emperor. Give me a break. They got “invaded” after they made a deal with the devil and split europe between the two of them. I’m glad they got invaded and brutalized by Hitler because most of them deserved it. The only reason why they have “legitimate security concerns” in the first place is because they keep pissing off the free world with their utter corruption and unwarranted brutality.
A very shrewd move. It’s a pity we didn’t keep our boot on its neck.
In general, yes, but in this case people are out to get them because they’re still the evil bastards they were 20 years ago. It’s their own damn fault and nobody else’s.
Who’s surprised? I’m not surprised one bit. I expect nothing short of uninvited political domination of small defenseless countries and brutality after brutality from them. Far from being surprised, I’m merely having my opinion of Russia confirmed over and over and over. I used to think my grandmother was just bitter and paranoid about Russia when she laughed at the idea that they’re not really the communist soviet union anymore. Turns out the old lady was right and I was the fool.
Darth Executor on August 14, 2008 at 4:53 PM
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 4:50 PM
LOL!
elduende on August 14, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Sorry, I was going back a lot further than just WWII… check WWI, Napoleon, Mongols… it goes on and on… they’ve got a LONG history, and unlike us here in America, actualy teach that history in their schools. Nationalism is alive and well in Russia right now… and we’re starting to see its results.
We poked the Bear. It swatted back at the closest thing… and now with the Poland deal we’re pokeing it again… gonna be interesting to see what THEY sway at next.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Russian security concerns I think gives Putin more credit for historical reflection than he is due. It assumes a victim status and then demands empathy.
Hitler played this theme all during the 30’s,… Germany’s plight after WWI, victim status as a result of the Treaty of Versailles, and the resulting need for ‘lebensraum’.
I don’t buy it or ascribe to it. Putin is cold, calculating KGB and is playing from a nationalistic deck for Soviet grandeur supported by oil revenue. He never could be trusted, it was sheer folly on our part to do so, and he is mouthing the ‘victim’ ideology for the EU’s benefit. If only we are allowed to have a ‘buffer’ we will be peaceful.
‘Buffer’ is the constant refrain. Of course everyone on his border understands what ‘buffer’ means. Do not be fooled. He has coldly calculated this. We are making the same mistakes that led to WWII. Chamberlain empathy revisited.
Starlink on August 14, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Kind of like putting suntan lotion on one of your kids while the other one is stuck in a burning building.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:15 PM
My point is more to why he is doing things… the mindset of the culture which he represents, and currently is supporting his views, and actions.
IMO he would have been happy to play in his “Near Abroad” if we were not activly promoting them becoming our allies…
Now this whole thing is about to escalate to the point of open opposition, instead of behind the scenes Gentleman manuvering.
UN is enough of a snake pit without ACTIVE Russian opposition.
I don’t think Bush understood the Russian mindset, and pushed them hard enough to now actively support our enemies (vice the passive support of the last few years).
Like I said earlier, look for ACTIVE support of Jihadist and Iranian interests from the Russians.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 5:15 PM
I sure hope that those all out sons-of-#itches, barbarians, and chronic drunks with no regard for human life, otherwise known as the Russians, don’t make it all the way to Augusta, Georgia, a nice little city as I recall.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Augusta GA… LOL… was at the Fort there for a bit for school in the way early 80s… lets see…
Wonder if my favorite bar, the Whippin Post is still there… LOL…
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Ain’t that the truth…!
When I came back after four years in SE Asia, I thought everyone that wasn’t carrying a purse was personally assigned to kill me.
PTSS, gets even those that aren’t Russian.
Women have definitely had a very positive influence in my life.
Thanks Hon!
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Oh please, for the love of God, have some mercy and remove Fredy Kagan from your list.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Consider how our media shape the narrative about the big players. Was it Time that ran the cover story not all that long ago on Putin and what a wunderbar he is for having turned the Russian economy around? It’s too bad that the news (??) weeklies that have the time (Pun aware) to deeply research a subject so often fail to examine beneath the surface.
onlineanalyst on August 14, 2008 at 5:28 PM
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:24 PM –
Fredy Kagan…yes, a bit over the top…but, when you distill it down, and it does take effort, there is substance well worth looking over.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 5:31 PM
The wise man does at once what the fool does finally.
- Niccolo Machiavelli
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:31 PM
Is there anyone, anything, any place or circumstance that President Bush or any of his advisors understand or have understood?
Really! I’m serious!
Name one.
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Here is where we differ……in essence you are an ‘apologist’, (I know you said you weren’t), for a position that because of his historical and cultural mindset, they have the right to ‘defend’ themselves by invading and occupying another country. It is logical nonsense, IMO. I going to kill my neighbor because of my abused childhood. Get a good atty but it is still murder.
Putin, I believe, spends all of his time in a Kremlin situation room with old school KGB and Soviet military, playing poker, looking at maps, devising strategy, and drinking vodka. His culture and historical framework is Soviet hegemony and economic and logistic leverage over regional oil interests. His history is not one of ‘defending the homeland’, but aggression.
You have correctly framed the Soviet premise accepted by the EU and liberals in this country.
My premise of Putin and his actions —— emasculate American influence in the area, take advantage of US military commitments, NATO dithering, EU indecision, UN irrelevancy, and proxy surrogate adventurism by Iran and Syria.
Starlink on August 14, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Fort Gordon, yes I took a 7 week civil affairs course there late summer of ‘71, obviously there would be some on Hotair who would say that I sure didn’t learn much from it. :)
I remember one bar/night club in particular, but can’t remember it’s name at all.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:38 PM
This reflects well on Bush as a world leader, how?
The liberals be damned!
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Well Sgt., I think that there are of at least a couple of Hotair commentators of the purse carrying gender who would like to kill you. Not as many as the number who would like to kill me, of course.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Starlink on August 14, 2008 at 5:34 PM –
Spot on!
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Oh please don’t get me started on Fat Fredy Kagan right now. Maybe later.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:44 PM
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:44 PM –
OK. Yes, he is the guy we used to tie to the playground slide to use as target practice during recess in grade school…but…oh, well…Disregard. :-)
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Fitzgerald: Frederick Kagan’s severe mental confusion
Too late. Sometimes I just can’t help myself.
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:48 PM
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 5:48 PM –
Ouch! Guess he’d best stay away from Middle Eastern topics…it clearly shows. His more recent Russian stuff, distilled, tracks well. Will be a bit more discerning over his writings, even after distillation. :-)
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Agree!
onlineanalyst on August 14, 2008 at 6:06 PM
So given all this psychoanalysis and psychic “fly on the wall” evaluation and insight of what transpires in the KSR. Please cw, at least consider greasing a meet with SecDef, Gates!
God knows; we could damn sure use both the insight and the intel…!
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Has everybody seen this?
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 6:11 PM
Have the Russians gotten to Atlanta yet?
jim m on August 14, 2008 at 6:27 PM
J_Gocht on August 14, 2008 at 6:10 PM –
Have a nice photo of Gates blowing out the candles on a birthday cake I made for him back in his DCI days when he came out to Germany. A sculpted Neuschwanstein castle on a Bavarian mountainside, in 3-D. Haven’t talked to him since right after he left the Agency. Been many many years. I’m sitting in a midwest college town, getting my youngest off to college, looking for something to do now that all the kids are out of the house. The last 12 years of single parenting have taken their toll. Most of my contacts have retired, are retiring or just plain left since the mid-90’s.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 6:28 PM
MB4 on August 14, 2008 at 6:11 PM –
If they are going for Kutaisi, then Tblisi will be cut off from the Black Sea, and they’ll get the piplelines, too.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 6:35 PM
I think its time we took some action to stop the Russians.
dogsoldier on August 14, 2008 at 6:48 PM
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