Sarkosy…oh the devil is in the details…may have gone for expediency over content, may have viewed a temporary arrangment as something that could be sorted out later, when cooler heads could prevail, may have quite possibly saved Georgia from a pretty certain annihilation, perhaps viewing a Vichy arrangement as being better for Georgia than a Lidice arrangement. Or he was made a witting or unwitting chess piece in a far larger game.

But I’ll hold off a bit until the details are made public.

As for the devil…

If we view this Georgian disaster as some sort of isolated event, a mere exercise in showing the West that the Russians brook no interventionism from the US, NATO, the EU, perhaps we should view this in a greater context.

This is all about Putin. It is all about Putin’s vision of Russia 100 years ago, 25 years ago, ten years ago, last Wednesday, and tomorrow and decades from now…and how Putin intends to get to his vision of Russia’s future.

He can afford, according to Putin, based on his actions, to sacrifice a quick and certain victory in order to achieve several less quick but nevertheless certain victories.

Putin’s game plan is not dependent on polling, or the four-year election cycle, public opinion, world opinion (so he thinks) or any other factor save for the might and majesty of Mother Russia united under Vladimir I, Tsar of all the Russia’s.
Once we understand that tiny little detail…the rest falls into place quite easily. Only then, can we start to deal with the beast with any hope of success.

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 8:34 AM

rbj on August 14, 2008 at 8:36 AM –

You hit on a point to often missed or ignored. If the Russians/Putin demand that Abhazia and South Ossetia be recognized as independent sovereign states…then let’s take a look all across not only the Near Abroad, but within Russia itself…should there be sovereignty for the Adyge, the Adzhars, Altaians, the Bashkirs, the Buryats, of course, the Chechens, the Cherkess, Chuckchi, Dagestanis, Evenki or all the rest of the over 150 recognized “nationalities” within Russia?

After all, in the view of a logical person, there is a relation, a relativism, a morality, that tells us that you cannot do one thing and then do the polar opposite…

Then again, Putin is not a moral relativist…something the West had better get used to, Putin is Morality under Putin’s New Russia.

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 8:55 AM

elduende on August 14, 2008 at 9:10 AM –

Thank you for pointing that out. Sarkozy was speaking for the EU far more than he was speaking for France.

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 9:13 AM

jeff_from_mpls on August 14, 2008 at 9:12 AM –

We are going to need something in the post Cold War world other than the UN. UN is fine for short term point humanitarian projects. Pretty worthless for peacekeeping, and near nil for major problem solving. And costing us billions in dues to pay for other countries kicking us in the jewels.

I would hope that any alternative of responsible democracies would avoid using the word “League.” Been used before, with terrible results. Besides, “League of Democracies” sounds so Marvel comics.

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 9:21 AM

JiangxiDad on August 14, 2008 at 9:37 AM –

Abkhazi and both Ossetias are deeply involved in the drug trade, going back to pre-Soviet times, and are good mercenaries to have, thugs on call, if you need them.

There are other “importances” for both the Abkhaz and Ossets, but I’ve been called for getting too long winded in my posts of late. Let’s just say that both have their usefulness under Putin.

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 9:44 AM

a capella on August 14, 2008 at 9:38 AM –

The three oil lines that cross Georgia presently carry about 1% of the world’s oil and gas. Not a heck of a lot in the larger picture.

But look at the geography. Central Asia is dependent on the Moscow Route for just about everything. This pipeline affords Azerbaijan, Turkmenia, Kazakhstan, an alternative route to Western markets [and hard currencies] something Putin would like to shut down.

The “real fun” may begin if/when the Chinese finish their infrastructure out to the Dzungarian Gate and are able to tap into Khazakh oil and gas from the East (and afford an alternative to Azerbaijan and Turkmenia as well.)

Then there is Afghanistan…the only low altitude pass from Central Asia to the Indian Ocean runs right through Afghanistan.

If you were Tsar, what would you do?

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 9:52 AM

Think_b4_speaking on August 14, 2008 at 9:51 AM –

Thought the North Koreans held that distinction? Maybe it is just for the C-note.

In any case, yes they have been at it (”counterfeiting in the Kavkas”) for quite a while.

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 9:55 AM

onlineanalyst on August 14, 2008 at 11:34 AM –

Only Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as “independent.” At the same time, they provided as many as they could with Russian passports.

Inconsistent? On the surface. But look at the changes in Russian jurisprudence and at their recent declarations regarding their full desire to use Russian military forces to protect “Russian citizens” anywhere around the world, and to militarily oppose any nation which insults the person and the dignity of the Russian people abroad. They have also declared the Right to arrest, detain, convict and sentence, under Russian Law, any persons who engage in slights to Russian dignity or to the persons of Russian citizens abroad.

This is the Tsar’s Law. In 2008.

In the middle of all the Georgia did this and Georgia did that prattle, we are missing the larger picture.

coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 11:58 AM