Putin puppet to Bush: We’ll “guarantee” South Ossetia’s autonomy
posted at 12:37 pm on August 14, 2008 by Allahpundit
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A declaration of independence. Ante up!
President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia said Thursday that Russia would act as an international guarantor of the two pro-Russian enclaves at the center of the crisis with Georgia, and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov said that Georgia’s territorial integrity was “de facto limited because of the war.”
Together, the comments offered a sharp retort to President Bush’s insistence a day earlier that “the sovereign and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected.”…
According to Reuters, he said: “Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the U.N. Charter,” adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”
“One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state,” Mr. Lavrov said, The Associated Press reported.
The White House sneers that it’s little more than “bluster.” Is it? Not only are they reportedly massing armor in Georgian territory but they’re wrecking military installations, including some of the airfields which, presumably, the U.S. needs to fly in humanitarian aid — despite Bush’s warning yesterday to Russia not to “interfere” with relief efforts. Gates reiterated this morning that the U.S. expects Russia to honor the ceasefire agreement, but isn’t that what they’re doing? As Ed noted earlier, that quirky provision granting them “additional security measures” gives them de facto carte blanche; according to a senior U.S. official quoted in the Times piece, the language “would allow the Russians to do almost anything.” Hence their ability to occupy not only Gori but the port of Poti even as they’re supposedly in the process of pulling out.
McCain made some suggestions yesterday about next moves but doubtless this is headed for the UN for a deal on the two provinces. Exit question: What form will the final “compromise” take? Will Russian troops redeploy to just outside the provinces so that they’re not technically occupying the territory but are casting a large enough shadow that they might as well be? Or will the UN actually permit them to stay put while sending a force of international peacekeepers in a token show of oversight that’ll amount to absolutely nothing if Russia decides to get aggressive?
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Any situation in which that phrase is employed is positively dangerous.
MB007 on August 14, 2008 at 12:42 PM
The fox graciously agrees to protect the henhouse.
Cicero43 on August 14, 2008 at 12:48 PM
I still say we need to send a Navy Task force up the Bosporus to sit off the port of Poti. A single carrier and escorts along with an attack sub or two would be enough.
I have no doubt that the Ukraine would allow us to base out of there, and the Black Sea is not so large that we cannot fly sorties across it and smash the Russian army to bits.
Hell. I’m thinking we down several dozen of their jets and the Russkies will back down. Right now they think we are all talk. Wreck some hardware and they will back off.
The ONLY thing a bully like Putin understands is force. I say we give him a bloody nose.
wearyman on August 14, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Or, in less euphemistic words:
We own it. It is ours. We won.
MadisonConservative on August 14, 2008 at 12:51 PM
The UN once again becomes even less relevant.
This is between the US and
RussiaThe Soviet Union, and Georgia is just the prelude to the Ukraine being invaded.Hening on August 14, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Yep and the UN peacekeepers in between the Israelis and Hez’ballah are so good at keeping the Hezb’allah from provoking actions. Yeah….
mjk on August 14, 2008 at 12:53 PM
You don’t understand. The Russian people need living space. This is Russia just asserting its right over land that was originally theirs anyway. yadda, yadda, yadda. Who is Hitler in this generation again?
mjk on August 14, 2008 at 12:54 PM
And the giant oil pipeline to Europe that just so happens to run through the henhouse. I liked Krauthammer’s take on this: the gloves need to come off with the Russkies. Kick them out of G8, boycott their Olympics in 2014, admit more of Russia’s border states to NATO… We should also be equipping the Georgians. That territory is as mountainous as Afghanistan, which severely limits the usefulness of Russian armor. Keep the Georgian army supplied and maybe send in some insurgency advisors on the fly, and they can give the Russkies all manners of fits until we can get this resolved.
Outlander on August 14, 2008 at 12:55 PM
wearyman on August 14, 2008 at 12:51 PM –
This would be following a Putin-esque desired scenario almost to the letter.
Perhaps this would help understand what we are up against.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 12:57 PM
The Airborne Death Laser that Capt. Ed discussed earlier needs to be deployed to the Black Sea Region right away. I’d like to see Vladimir Putin become Vladimir “Poof”in.
innominatus on August 14, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Noose tightens around Tblisi.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 14, 2008 at 1:02 PM
I haven’t heard any comments from the Senate or the House members on this. Only the two candidates. Anyone heard anything from the Congress? Or are they too scared?
ultracon on August 14, 2008 at 1:02 PM
Sec. Defense Gates has already announce that the US will not use military force.
rockhauler on August 14, 2008 at 1:06 PM
ultracon on August 14, 2008 at 1:02 PM
JiangxiDad on August 14, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Putin may be a master gamesman, but games don’t work against a .50 cal bullet fired from an A-10’s nose cannon. Putin is COUNTING on us NOT doing anything. This is the exact reason why we need to SMASH his forces, and fast. Frankly he wouldn’t expect it, and would run back to Russia, leaving the Georgians to mop up the so-called “seperatists”.
a HUGE show of force and a sound bloodying will go a much longer way to convincing the Russians we mean business than all the words in the world.
For crying out loud, this is RUSSIAN hardware we are talking about here! Outdated and antiquated paper tanks that we passed technologically 20 years ago! a phalanx of striker (or is it stryker?) APC’s could beat these guys. Let alone several wings of our best Air Superiority fighters, a wing or two of A-10’s and several C-130’s of handheld anti-tank and anti-air weapons.
I mean, this isn’t the 1950’s and 60’s. We can beat these guys HANDS DOWN. WHY are we sitting around doing nothing while our supposed ally get’s carved up?
wearyman on August 14, 2008 at 1:08 PM
What a great time for the United States to be without any effective Leadership and essentially no Government at all.
ronsfi on August 14, 2008 at 1:09 PM
I just listened to the press conf with Sec Gates and the Gen in charge of the aid to Georgia.
Gates said he did not see any reason for military action in this circumstance because it is a humanitarian mission. The Gen put to rest a lot of those reports in the media about the destruction continuing. He said there is movement of the Russian forces to get into the formations to move out of the country and there is evidence they are doing that. He said the Port at Pori was not damaged and was not blocked by the Russian ships but probably those wanting to enter the port did not do so because of the fighting. He said the air fields appear to be in tact. So sounds like a lot of the reporting is based on interpretation or second hand info. Kind of like we saw in Iraq.
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Anybody read the later Dune sci-fi books?
When the Bene Gesserit was attacked or thwarted, they would send the same three-letter message to their enemies:
You will pay
A “Punishment Banquet” was tailored to each enemy, depending on the circumstances. I say to adress this Russian attack on one of our allies, we reply with a measured response, then with a stinger: besides re-building the Georgian military and basing troops there, we also install an ABM missile sheild, the same one the Russians are so upset over in Poland.
Russia, You will pay.
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 1:18 PM
In happier news, Iran and Russia are snuggling closer together in bed. Hope no one forgets to turn off the light.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 14, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Yep. Part of his “strategic assesment.”
Where are the real men willing to do what’s right?
davidk on August 14, 2008 at 1:18 PM
They’re on vacation.
MarkTheGreat on August 14, 2008 at 1:19 PM
A-10 “nose cannon” fires 30mm shell, not .50 cal bullet.
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 1:20 PM
My understanding is that the training and dedication of the troops and pilots is not the hottest either.
MarkTheGreat on August 14, 2008 at 1:21 PM
The war in Georgia is lost.
–Harry “No Stones” Reid
davidk on August 14, 2008 at 1:21 PM
OK.
davidk on August 14, 2008 at 1:22 PM
We’re going to have to kick the Russians out of Georgia, we may as well get to it.
Maxx on August 14, 2008 at 1:28 PM
wearyman on August 14, 2008 at 1:08 PM –
In a perfect world…yep, indeed, I’d like to see, love to see, the Russian Army chewed to bits on battlefield after battlefield, all the way to downtown Moscow.
But, let’s look at the realities. We can do nothing militarily in Georgia, today, other than provide recovery assistance and a bit of training, and modest resupply to Georgia without the express permisison and cooperation of many many players, and this does not include Russia.
While we slept off our congratualtory bacchanal after the Wall came down, and the USSR became a 70-year footnote in history, there were quite a few in Russia who saw things differently, but were ignored, as we lulled ourselves into believing that the Cold War was over, no more enemies to fight, the end of history, and all that…
Methodically, a junion KGB officer, who served in dresden…not berlin, not Frankfurt, not Munich, worked his way up, building alliances, sometimes with the devil himself, often times with the devil himself, first to develop an inner circle, then to reward that inner circle as he pushed Yeltsin out, and then poushed supporters of Yeltsin out, and one by one replaced them with trusted confidants. Was he trying to revitalize Communism? No. He detested Communism. The KGB officers I encountered had a word for believers in Communism…chernozhopa…black asses…a reference to the Jesuits..the Believers.
Imentioned Dresden because the Dresden Residentura was not devoted toward the West but was devoted to rooting out enemies of the State within the DDR, to include members of the DDR government and Party. A perfect training ground for someone who would later perform the same function in Moscow as his own free agent.
Putin thinks outside the box. And he has been very very successful at doing so. he has stacked the deck in his favor inside Russia. He has used the West against the West. He has used world opinion against world opinion. He has played our game far better than we played. And he had no Congress, no prattling public, no rabid gotcha media nipping at his heels.
It has taken years to understand Putin. it has taken a few years to put a lot of pieces together.
But, getting many many our our finest killed in a minor scrimmage before the big game…
Time to take a breather and honestly look at what and who we face. It isn’t all about the Russian Army. It is deeper than that. It isn’t about our ability to destroy Ruissian hardware with our hardware. It goes beyond that.
Why devote all our efforts towards hitting Putin’s strengths, accomplishing little in the near term, while allies and former allies, and other nations decide it just ain’t worth the effort as they see us bang our heads against the wall time and time again…?
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Every time I see Putin I think he should be wearing a suit and holding a silenced pistol.
He reminds of that game “Hitman” for some reason.
TheUnrepentantGeek on August 14, 2008 at 1:34 PM
TheUnrepentantGeek on August 14, 2008 at 1:34 PM –
And you wouldn’t be far from the truth at all. His game, though,is for real.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Thanks. It’s always such a downer when facts get in the way of a thread full of rumor and warcries.:) Oh, well.
a capella on August 14, 2008 at 1:36 PM
I keep hearing about Putin’s intimidating pecs, yet the only time I ever saw him barechested (several years ago) he had a pair of crab-eye, flying banana manboobs – like a guy who overdosed on Avodart. Seriously, did he buff up or are you just melting cheese on my brain?
whitetop on August 14, 2008 at 1:36 PM
What a bold, some might dare say reckless, statement by the Speaker of the House. As soon as it is conveyed to the Russian troops on the ground, you can bet that they’ll be beating a path back to Russia proper.
Now’s the time to recognize Chechnya’s independence. (If only they didn’t have the pesky Islamic fundamentalist problem). Maybe Dagestan and Ingushetia as well (apologies for misspelling).
And you know, there’ve been rumors that a number of Chinese have been moving into Siberia. What with the Russian population decreasing and China at 1.4 billion . . . what was that someone said about forgetting about territorial integrity. . .
rbj on August 14, 2008 at 1:37 PM
That was the point of the Bene Gesserit “Punishment Banquet”: not an immediate knee-jerk riposte, but a measured response aimed at bending the Enemy to your will.
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 1:39 PM
You should go to 4chan more often; the Leave Bond to mememe photo with Putin with eyepatch as an Ian Flemming type villian was spot on!
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Sorry a capella. My mistake.. I’ll refrain from presenting the facts in the future.. :)
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Don’t forget that hot Russian economy is a one trick pony just like Venezuela. Mad Vlad made a huge gamble with this,..I don’t think he’ll survive the long term effect. This is just the opening series of moves. Russian warm port shipping is also at risk.
a capella on August 14, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Trust me.
MadisonConservative on August 14, 2008 at 1:49 PM
You should be locked up for typing that. ;)
TheUnrepentantGeek on August 14, 2008 at 1:51 PM
A little conflict response analysis would seem prudent.
Putin must go. That is the overriding goal. Unless one is a total dupe, this is pretty much in agreement?
How to go about it? Insitgate multiple wars in far away places, trying to maintian logisitcs and supply trains across swaths of the globe that we do not, cannot control? Instigate multiple wars that we have no control over the outcomes?
Involve ourselves and most of the world in one great war? [Not totally ruled out, but face it, today, with what we have right now, not in the pipleine, but what we have on hand right now? Maybe not such a good idea. Most of NATO's military forces are long since mothballed if not tossed away altogether.]
Show force and strength in those places where we can best do so? A good move, generally. Getting all the necessary players to operate off the same musical score is going to be difficult but not impossible. December’s NATO meeting has on its agenda Ukraine’s admission to NATO. This is a must. Accepting Georgia’s membership can be addressed at that time, also. How about Kazakhstan? We have already had joint NATO-Kazakh exercises, and perhaps it is time to push up Kazakhstan’s membership as well.
This is going to be costly.
Energy indpendence is a key element. A crucial one at that.
Oil is the lifeblood of Putin’s regime. It is also one of his weaknesses.
Can the Western world go without for a short period in exchange for a better economy afterwards? I beleive it is not only worth the risk but a necessary key element.
Removing Putin and Russia from access to foreign capital…western currency…another key element. Are we willing to enter recession as we close markets to Russia? is Europe?
Pushing for the total economic collapse of Russia…acknowleging that many many Russians will be reduced to a Biafra-like existence for a short while, perhaps several years…terrible but necessary…may offer the impetus for Russians themselves to finally end Putin’s reign. Yeltsin was almost there…but could not cut off the nomenclatura and former apparatchiks from their power and perks altogether. Putin has rescinded all of Yeltsin’s advances, imperfect as they were. The power elites in Moscow, the “siloviki” are beholden to Putin for their wealth and lifestyle. The Russian on the street has nothing but contempt for most of the “siloviki.” We can use this.
The Russian Armed Forces? Pretty enemic…a far cry from 1980. But, Putin has promised to put more equipment more weaponry in their hands. The Russians are also introducing a volunteer army, for the first time in Russian history. But this new volunteer army, much like the current prevelent conscript army deopends on brutality to maintainthe lower ranks and bribes to maintain the flag ranks. We can use this.
Perhaps, this time, we can push to do what needs to be done [apologies to Lenin for stealing a line.] that by our concerted combined actions vis-a-vis Russian and we ferret out Putin’s weaknesses and exploit them.
Shah’mat! Checkmate. The King is dead.
But..just like on this blog…just as we see in Washington, and in capitals across the world…getting all necessary players on the same musical score at the same time is going to be one hell of a tough row to hoe.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Georgia’s territorial integrity, therefore, is limited because it was invaded. If this stands, it is a new interpretation of international law which will gut the Charter of the United Nations (to the extent that it stood/stands for anything anyway).
If a state can lose its right to its territorial integrity because it has been invaded, what do any of the UN Articles regarding non-use of force, protection of sovereignty and peaceful resolution of disputes mean?
Blaise on August 14, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Blaise on August 14, 2008 at 2:02 PM –
Face it. The efficacy of the UN is well over.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Problem is that from THEIR viewpoint WE are the threat.
We were busy creating an ally right on their border, and arming and training it… and trying to put it into NATO, an organization whose very existance was anti Soviet/Russia.
Add in that WE have invaded TWO countries in the past few years.
Add in that WE are trying to put missle defense systems closer and closer to their border, when the ONLY real defense thay have against US are missles…
Face it, to them WE are trying to consolidate Power on an international scale… and the US, being a Democracy, can change its policy very quickly to really silly things… We ARE an irrational country. We are destroying our own economy due to irrational energy policies, and have funded our overseas wars through borrowing…
Not a Russian appologist by any stretch of the imagination, but we HAVE pushed them very hard… so they have finally responded.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Oh yeah, P. Bush made Putin blink.
Johan Klaus on August 14, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:06 PM –
Russia has been “responding” since Yeltsin was voted out of office. Long before we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq.
No, I do not view you as a Russian apologist. Your posts have proven otherwise quite well.
But, what you have presented is chatter and noise, not you, not at all, but the Western world, and the useful idiots among us, and in the middle of that chatter and noise the intel has to be ferreted out. This devil’s advocate approach is a vital necessity, lest we embark on a counter revanchist Russia strategy and lose sight of our goals and the means to obtain those goals.
As for energy independence, for the U.S. and for Europe, it is now well elevated to a national security threat than to be the tired old ecological house of cards. [Thank you, Goracle, for that one.]
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Well, heres a question, what was our response in the 70’s and 80’s when there was Communist support for countries in Central America? Did we not very effectivly express that the Monroe Doctrine was still in effect?
We were trying to put a NATO ally on their BORDER. Thats NATO, an organization whose very existance was to combat/defeat the Soviet/Russian empire.
There comes a point where Realpolitic must override what your beliefs and desires… Bush pushed Russia way too hard… they are now pushing back.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:19 PM
Since I’ve been admonished for bring the facts into the fray on the other thread, I’ll offer the link here. On C-Span this morning. The Defense Dept briefing with Sec Gates and Gen Cartwright link and then the Brooking Inst. panel discussion was interesting as well.
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 2:20 PM
If you look at Russia, everything of importance is centered on Moscow. Moscow is the key element. There are no highways comprable to anything in the West outside of Moscow, and to a small extent St. Petersburg. There are no major highways connecting Russian cities and their inductrial areas. Antiquated raillines, certainly, but these, even these, are few and in disrepair. Heavy airlift…mostly in the hands of the Unkraine, thank you, Yeltsin, for that gift. The infrastructure of Russia after all these centuries of being bound by its geography is another weakness we can exploit.
Shut down Moscow, we shut down most of the rest of Russia. Stop sending technologies for mineral and oil and gas extraction, and the money flow stops. Disrupt Moscow through civil strife in Moscow, and effective government control over the rest of Russia becomes unhinged.
Putin’s Russia is not invulnerable.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 2:21 PM
About the only thing Rootin’ Tootin’ Putin will guarantee at this point is to leave a big smoky hole in the ground where South Ossetia and Abkhazia used to be.
pilamaye on August 14, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Time to bring him back to Crawford for more barbeque.
labrat on August 14, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:19 PM –
As much as it pains me, of all people, to say, but the Cold War is over.
How were we able to confront Communism in Latin America, et al, with force? Easy. There was this principle on the part of US foreign policy towards the USSR called linkage. It was an essential element in detente. Soviet behaviours in one part of the world had an impact on our behaviours toward the USSR in many other parts of the world. The Soviets knew they could act with impuntiyu in certain parts of the world, they also knew that in other parts there was a threshold they could not pass, lest they lose gains made in other key areas. The Monroe Doctrine at that time was merely a legal pretext for public consumption.
The end of the Cold War brought an end to linkage and detente. But our goal today should not be containment, nor detente, though linkage can play a very large role in our new goals and efforts.
All the models and gaming of the Cold War are no longer generally applicable to the present counter-Russia matrix.
Did Bush push too hard? Jury is out on that one. But, Germany, by refusing Georgia’s request to join NATO in such a public fashion, that, certainly, without a doubt, signalled to Putin that NATO would not go to the brink.
It is a vastly different NATO today than existed in the 50-80’s. The “new” NATO nations have a grip on the realities. Most of the “old” NATO countries are still trapped in the past.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I’d agree with you as far as US foreign policy went, but what were the Russians thinking?
They still have the concept of Near Abroad… ie THEIR Monroe Doctrine Area…
Germany stopped Georgia from entering NATO because they understood that… they still have large amounts of people who worked with the Russians, and know how they think.
Bush, and his blind faith in Democracy, and self determination, is creating problems all over the world.
Face it, when we had AMERICAN Spec Op forces doing joint excercises on the RUSSIAN border??? How do you think we’d respond if MEXICO was doing joint Ops with Spetznaz in our border Region?
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:47 PM
And you know what else I wonder coldwarrior? It seems that the latest proposal that was presented to SO and Georgia for resolution of their conflict (some say was a pretty good deal) was crafted with the assistance of Germany and it was Germany who I understand was the most vocal about Georgia getting the invite to NATO because of the unresolved conflict. I’m wondering which came first? And was it because Putin knew that Germany would object to NATO unless the proposal was accepted or was it the case that SO was considering the proposal, if it was as good as is being said, that Putin decided to jump now?
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 2:50 PM
When should we expect to see Leningrad and Stalingrad on maps again?
Rick on August 14, 2008 at 2:54 PM
We have had Spec Ops doing joint exercises in Kazakhstan for several years, and the Kazakhs have participated in joint NATO exercises as well. They are in line for NATO membership. A few years away, but in line nevertheless. Have they been attacked?
As for Mexico…the Mexican Army has entered and fired upon US citizens and border patrol officers dozens of times over the past few years….and our response has been? Zip.
Could there be Spetnaz in Mexico right now? I wouldn’t rule it out, not one bit. Could they be working in conjunction with Mexican military? Can’t rule that out, either. And our response is? Zip.
If only we had an authoritarian regime, one leader in control of all means of defense and produiction and economy and who could rule by diktat. We don’t. Russia does. We are hamstrung…and for good reason, perhaps. Russia has no such restraints self-imposed.
Blind faith in democracy is actually working. John Lewis Gaddis, a former professor of mine, now at Princeton, has written a good deal on this Bush-Wilsonian ideal and the impact it has had and is having across the world. Blind faith in democracy is not what precipitated the present Georgian crisis. Our blindly not seeing the pieces fall in place [within Russia] over the past four or five years…that is what precipitated the present crisis.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Putin is a Russian gangster who has been in the role of a world leader. The mask is off, and he is seen as a bullying, terrorizing gangster with no respect for international law.
He still would probably like to be seen as the world leader, which is why the suggestions in Krauthammer’s article today were good: kick Russia out of G7, NATO coalition, etc. No gangsters allowed. Act like a world leader, and we’ll treat you like one.
On the other hand, he is wounded, but not dead, and a wounded bear is a nasty creature to deal with. As galling as it might seem, the West has to find some way for him to save face in some very minimal way, while making it clear that he can’t try this again (Without the element of surprise, he can’t, and I would expect the asleep-at-the-switch analysts at the CIA are now watching Russian troop and naval movements a little more closely.)
Here’s where they need to be careful on what might be seen as concessions (I fear another Condi Rice “I’m ‘hopeful’ the
LebaneseRussians will keep their commitments” statement.) This has bogged down from the blizkreig that Putin apparently intended, and damaged him as the one who could be trusted to “influence” Iran. The Baltic states have stood up to him so far, and his BFF Bush is pissed at being double-crossed. Texans don’t like being double-crossed.So far Bush & Co. have been holding firm, and McCain has been tag-teaming them. Putin can read polls as well as anyone, and needs to be calculating what it would be like to deal with a US president who had 5 years experience in the kind of prison the KGB used to run.
(By the way, pushing “drill here, drill now” in the US will also help clip Putin’s wings, as his adventures are financed by petrodollars. I hope the GOP wakes up and starts running ads on how low gas prices deprive Iran and Russia of money to fund terror.)
Wethal on August 14, 2008 at 2:59 PM
I think Putin jumped now because he had a historic opporunity to act while we are overstretched, and distracted.
Face it, our own internal political stupidity has put our economy into both a credit, and Energy cruch. We’ve had to bail out major banks recently… and our Dems won’t let us get the energy we need to run our own economy… add in an election… and TWO foreign wars without any increase in the military?
Our own policys make us much weaker than we should be. He saw this, and acted.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 2:50 PM –
Putin has inside information in Germany. Sources with access. Germany is one of Russia’s essential elements of intelligence on their overall intelligence collection plan.
Putin decided to jump now, in my opinion, because his intel showed him clearly that most of the rest of the world, and especially the U.S. and Europe were on vacation. Simple as that. August has been an annual shut down government time in Europe for decades. The Olympics providing cover didn’t hurt either. One thing. Did you notice that of all the world leaders sharing time at the Olympics, there was only one Prime Minister? Putin? Maskirovka in action.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Wethal on August 14, 2008 at 2:59 PM –
I agree pretty much to all you posted…except Putin is NOT wounded. The heads of the Russian Air Force, however, are wounded and a few may be haeded for that great gulag in the sky as a result of their bungling of air missions over Georgia. A Tu-22 shot down by an army that had no organic air defense assets and a hopelessly antiquated air force? At least ten, by accepted figures, Russian aircraft shot down by that same army and antiquated air force? Four days of sorties to hit a clearly visible radar installation on a mountain top overlooking Tblisi? An installation with NO air defense around it?
No, Putin is not wounded. He is however, regrouping, applying “lessons learned” and probably fast.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Nope, Putin didn’t have the money to do it until he got his Petro dollar pipeline in place… he didn’t have enough hard currency to even maintain his fleet until recently… Now, however, he is sending a messege about his “Near Abroad”…
Putin is into Machiavelian Real Politik… and needs to be thought of in that way….
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:06 PM
I don’t disagree with you on that Romeo. One of my biggest angsts about our system is that we change every 4-8 years which effects our foreign and domestic policies while most of the world around us does not! I wish we had a way to solve that problem. As far as the current situation, some of it is because of our capitalist nature and we take the good with the bad, some of it is the polarization of political parties, but I do not wish for a parliamentary system of government to replace our 2 party system.
But in this case, I think it’s more than that with Putin. He basically has created a situation that will assist McCain into the WH when he could have waited just 3 months. I doubt that our economic situation or political stupidity will improve in 3 months.. ;)
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 3:07 PM
It goes beyond that – - we’ve looked the other way since the mid 90s everytime they did something “questionable” while insisting that they were our ally. It’s no secret that they miss being the Soviet Union – - Putin’s made reference to that being the worst thing that’s ever happened. Little by little, while we’ve been distracted by other things, the Russians have put together their plan to be considered a super power again. Which brings us to today.
Rick on August 14, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:06 PM –
Money. Oil. Two terms that are vocally disdained hated by the Left, used as perjoratives against the Right. Yet these two hold the key to dropping Putin into the dustbin of history.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Rick on August 14, 2008 at 3:07 PM –
You understand. Now expand on that. Brainstorm it a bit more.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Gates did say this morning that there has been traditionally exchange in fire between SO and Georgia during August for some reason over the last few years. That might have also given cover.
Yes I did notice that Putin was the only PM in China.
I have to say I wish I was a fly on the wall when Hu heard that Putin had used his shinning moment on the world stage as cover!
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 3:12 PM
You want Angst? Just imagine the wolfish grip on Putin’s face is Obama wins the WH.
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 3:13 PM
If you have time you might watch the briefing with Gates at that link on C-SPAN. He does make a reference to Putin’s statement about that Feb year ago and how it raised the ire in Washington.
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Hu? Hu’s on first.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
The Chinese element…an unanswered vital question.
If China is successful in the Kazakh connection, what will Russia do? China poured well over a billion dollars into Turkmenia in the past year or so. To build infrastructure, mostly. But also to show Chinese presence in central Asia. Much as I hate to admit it, even consider it, China hold one of the keys to unlocking Putin’s regime. But, getting China to work for other than their own ends…hmmmm…that should keep the “experts” awake all night for quite a while.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:16 PM
His reputation as a world leader who would be entitled to participate in matters such as the G8 (to which he wouldn’t belong it it hadn’t been for Bubba Clinton’s sucking up to a fellow lefty), and the official liaison office that NATO has allowed Russia, is wounded, or damaged.
Putin wanted to be seen as the guy that the US and Europe could “work with” – on issues such as Iran. No one really works with a gangster – that implies a freedom of choice gangsters don’t allow. But he’s shown there’s no difference in tactics between Soviet Communism and Russian national imperialism.
I agree that someone had some plans that were screwed up by the Russian military, and I wonder how many “vacancies” there suddenly are in the Russian military heirarchy.
As far as the Russian military screw-ups go, someone over at NRO posted a good explanation: Russia has been buying fancy hardware, but the training is poor. The pilots haven’t been hitting their targets because they’ve had what the US/British/Israelis would consider woefully inadequate training time.
And you’re right – Putin is smart, and a quick learner, and is trying to figure out what he can do.
Trouble is the whole world is watching now. The TV crews are in, the bloggers are blogging, and the pictures go up on the internet of Russian atrocities in Georgia.
Wethal on August 14, 2008 at 3:18 PM
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 3:13 PM –
I’d imagine he’d be happier than Kasparov winning the International Chess Tourney. [Of course, Kasparov is one of the most vocal anti-Putin Russians on the present stage.]
An Obama win in November would sure make things a lot easier for Putin.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:18 PM
You’re looking at it from the viewpoint of an American.
Even if McCain is elected, over Obama (who would be a wimp) he will still have both houses of Congress controlled by the Dems… which is a recipie for International Policy gridlock.
Add in that he sees BOTH Pres candidates embracing economic and border policies that will KILL the American economy and thus make us a Paper Tiger? (Cap and trade stuff).
I don’t think he really cares which is elected… long term America is in for a tough time either way.
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 3:20 PM
Questions about the future will include China and lessons they will learn from this.
moughon on August 14, 2008 at 3:22 PM
Wethal on August 14, 2008 at 3:18 PM –
In the past five years the ratio of combat air time on the part of US pilots to that of training air time for Russian pilots is on something like 2000:1. The Russians can still design them, but they can’t build them, not without Western assistance. Thus Russia has approached India to build the new Russian fifth-generation fighter, their answer to the F-22. India, thankfully, for totally unrelated reasons, has slowed down the contract and hasn’t gotten around to actual full scale production. Another Putin weakness that we simply must exploit.
Russian military training in general, outside of Spetnaz and a few smaller special purpose forces, has been dismal. Still on par with what we saw in the 1970’s Soviet training film Sons of the Fatherland. Basically WWII tactics, as were seen in Georgia, and WWII doctrine pretty much as well.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Haha. I walked in to that one up!
I think that might be one of the avenues to explore how to pit them against each other.
I got quite a laugh out of the Russian minister on CNN saying that they had stopped their advance while I watched the reporter run from the advancement of Russian tanks on live TV!
Of course I am!
I think that what Putin might not understand is that Americans might be paper tigers is some aspects BUT the rise of the USSR is not one of them. He must not realize that the baby boomers are the ones who have the memories of safety drills about climbing under your desk and bomb shelters being built due to the nuclear threat of the Soviets.
I don’t think that Putin understands McCain’s relationship with Georgia and that President.
And I have faith in the American economy. We just need to stay on the energy independence drum. I just hope we can stick with it!
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Cancel! Cancel!!
I’m one of those who follows the principle that if you think it it can come true. I keep negative images and energy at a distance as much as possible.. ;)
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 3:41 PM
I’m sure former left wing PM Gerald Shroeder, now a highly paid exec with Gazprom, still has some close government contacts.
a capella on August 14, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Hopes dashed. Condi to present Georgia with French-negotiated cease-fire terms. Russian “peacekeepers” stay in South Ossetia, and get to patrol a 10-km buffer zone inside Georgian territory. No doubt US aid contingent on accepting it. Sigh.
Wethal on August 14, 2008 at 3:48 PM
I’d be just as sure that the organization that Merkel has inherited from Shroeder is just as infected with saboteurs as the one that Bush inherited from Clinton.
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 3:50 PM
“I have a bad feeling about this.”
TheUnrepentantGeek on August 14, 2008 at 3:56 PM
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 3:50 PM –
Merkel I trust, based on what I know of her and her experience. Even if she is a former Ostie (former DDR).
But with reunification, a good number of Osties were melded into various government structures over the years, to include the foreign ministry and defense establishment. Putin was part of the Dresden Residentura, the KGB office, and Dresden was focused on maintaining the loyalty of East Germany and East Germans, and used East Germans who were sent into West Germany. Some of those former links are still active. I no longer have access to a lot of good stuff, and if I did surely would display it here, but it can be safely assumed that within the highest offices of the Bundeskanzlerei and within the German Foreign Office and defense establishment, there are a good number of active and sleeper assets answerable to the KGB/SVR…and thus to Putin.
That Shroeder GazProm thing still rankles a lot of Germans. Other Germans seem to view it as a plus since Shroeder can “guarantee” Russian gas to Germany. Pretty shallow on their part.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 3:58 PM
surely would display it here,
No…surely would NOT…
Been a long day.
coldwarrior on August 14, 2008 at 4:00 PM
Hump! Best laid plans.. and all that! Maybe her relation was looked as a plus as the negotiator of the deal but just like us, insiders probably were aligned with Putin. I heard that deal, but I’ve not found any info on it, pretty much gave SO autonomy and was a much much better deal than Serbia had offered to Kosovo before the declaration of independence.
Yeah I got to see a whole lot of those shallow Germans a few weeks back as they shouted Obama! Obama!
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 4:10 PM
sez Condi:
groan
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 4:19 PM
You left out the Foxtrott Uniform. I know, because you’re a gent!
Entelechy on August 14, 2008 at 4:23 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080814/ap_on_re_eu/poland_us_missile_defense
first counter move… Poland finally agreed to the missle deal, with American support for its military…
Romeo13 on August 14, 2008 at 4:32 PM
Yes.
freevillage on August 14, 2008 at 4:58 PM
In other words “Take it, it’s yours.”
NEVER show weakness to the Russians…
pseudonominus on August 14, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Geeezzzz.. instead of reading the MSM interpretation of what was said, why not read the actual transcript yourself.. all of it.. in context.
Texas Gal on August 14, 2008 at 6:07 PM
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