Russian Army Within 15 Miles of Georgia Capital

Wed, Aug 13, 2008 at 12:07:16 pm PST

Several news organizations have reported that the Russian military is now within minutes of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.

elduende on August 13, 2008 at 2:07 PM

We gamed this out a LOT during the Cold war, and the dynamic is how deep into the Black sea you go…

If you stage your carriers near Turkey, they still benefit from Air Force Assets there, while having the ability to project power over the battlespace… key is that a Lot of Soviet/Russian fighters had very short ranges… they were built as shorter range interceptors, vice longer range multirole fighters… kinda like the difference between the ME 109 and the Mustang in WWII… Mustang could range over most of Germany, even from Britain… ME109 didn’t even have good loiter time over Engalnd in the Battle of Britain, even from bases in France…

So, old battle plan was to extend the range as much as possible to keep as much of Soviet Air at the edge of its operational envelope…

But that still takes about 3 carriers in mutual support to be able to keep enough CAP up to do both defensive, and Offensive Ops…

Not a good idea, but its not a new idea by far.

Actually I’m hoping they put nothing bigger than destroyers in there because the Black sea is going to be a bitch to fight in if things get ugly.The problem is no so much their decrepit Navy like you pointed out but the Russians can sortie airpower by the buttload out of southern Russia and the Crimea.

I think that our Navy, if fired upon, will fire back. I am hoping that the C-17’s have an escort.

MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 1:34 PM

Naval wise, Russian ships are pretty much toast as soon as the fighting starts UNLESS we don’t send in at least 4 Aegis/Burkes… or have no air cover at all.

They’ve got enough assets to put a lot of missles in the air, but most are old fly high type missles, that are easily shot down by our Standard missles… they have a few sea skimmers, but not many.

Essentaily its 70s technology against todays bleeding edge state of the art Teck… only way to take away the technological edge, is with a huge advantage in numbers.

Now, if they have staged forward, they do have a lot of Land Based Air with the legs to get invovled in anything around the Black Sea…

Real current problem is that none of the current stealth tech aircraft fly off of carriers… so we’d be fighting a generation back from our best available technology.

MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 1:39 PM

BTW – excellent quote!

Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 1:28 PM

I’ve read a few of your musings here and it’s clear to me you have no objectivity where Bush or members of his administration are concerned.

However, he’s dead and Sergei is a great guy of Russian descent. I value his perspective more than anything.

Sergei said it absolutely best.

Entelechy on August 13, 2008 at 1:28 PM

Well I thing that Patton said it best!!!

In addition to his other amiable characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and they are all out sons-of-#itches, barbarians, and chronic drunks.
- George S. Patton

I think that our Navy, if fired upon, will fire back. I am hoping that the C-17’s have an escort.

MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 1:34 PM

Ditto. The bluff is only so good as the rules of engagement.

Do you think we will have permission to engage? I think not.

Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 1:18 PM

I think that our Navy, if fired upon, will fire back. I am hoping that the C-17’s have an escort.

I don’t think I can actually recall a time in the last 8 years when Bush was bluffing.

Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 1:17 PM

I guess you have to parse ‘bluff’. 7 days on Georgia, years on Iran, years on Bin Laden……I could go on and on, and now denying Israel weapons?

My definition of bluff is – stating forcefully and defining a Bush doctrine after 9/11 regarding American policy toward countries and terrorists and then dithering for years regarding same.

violating the cease-fire

Seems like lawyer-eze for: “Hey, they’re freeakin’ killing people over here!”

Wait and See.

MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 1:03 PM

I agree. However, we have been communicating for permission to transfer Georgian troops from Iraq, and Putin will simply no longer grant ‘humanitarian’ flights at ‘this’ time, given the ‘instability’ or ’safety’ in a ‘war zone’.

Do you think we will have permission to engage? I think not.

The Russians have overplayed their hand- they thought Bush would do nothing.

They were wrong.

pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 1:06 PM

I hope you’re right and the Russians realize it. IMHO President Bush isn’t much on bluffing.

From Fred Kagan:

Russia has announced a unilateral ceasefire because its operations have achieved their aims.

Medvedev and Sarkozy have drafted a document that encapsulates all of Russia’s demands in return for a ceasefire—but not a final settlement, which must still be negotiated. Sarkozy is discussing that deal with Saakashvili right now.

So the situation on the ground now legally is that there are two unilateral ceasefires, although the Georgians claim that Russian forces continue their attacks, and the Russian military has laid the predicate for those and further attacks in public statements today. The Russian military has also made plain that if a formal ceasefire agreement is not reached, then Russian forces will not withdraw from Ossetia or Abkhazia.

The Russian military has clearly stated that the objective of its operations was to reduce Georgia’s overall military capability so that Georgia could not again conduct an operation similar to the one it launched in South Ossetia, and for that reason has been attacking targets throughout Georgia.

Russian leaders repeatedly say that they will not deal with Saakashvili.

The Russian Attorney General has announced that Russian law permits the trial of Saakashvili for crimes under the Russian Federation Criminal Code.

The Russian Foreign Minister has called for an investigation of Georgian war crimes and the punishment of those ultimately responsible by international tribunals, and has said that Russian citizens victimized by Georgians will be bringing individual actions in appropriate European human rights courts.

The Russian aim is to force Saakashvili from power, preferably using international legal maneuvers (a la Milosevic), but possibly using Russian law instead or in addition.

The Russians are maintaining their excessive forces in South Ossetia, and continuing to control Georgia’s airspace and conduct periodic attacks in a flagrant effort to compel an immediate Georgian agreement to their armistice terms, conveyed by Sarkozy.

Russia will not permit South Ossetia and Abkhazia to return to Georgian control, and will move one way or the other to have their independence recognized, and probably soon.
You can read these updates in their entirety here.

Updates can be found in the link provided in the above squib.

It looks as if Russia is playing hardball/hardass. Perhaps concessions have been made since August 12 in light of the pressure of the Baltic States.

He then needs to proactively direct US foreign policy accordingly.

Currently, GW is predictable and reactive to Putin’s gambits. He is KGB for pete’s sake.

Assume there is no relationship. There is none. Russian foreign policy at this point is simply propaganda. Putin has correctly predicted that GW is slow to act, tentative, and mired in State Department mush and concerns about what the left will say in a political year.

Putin knows GW is bluffing

You know, I don’t think Bush is bluffing.

The Russians will not buy this ‘meals on wheels’ posture. They have been planning this for too long and will have anticipated it.

So, what will the Russians do? Fire on the C-17s? Try to sink one of our warships?

The Russians have overplayed their hand- they thought Bush would do nothing.

They were wrong.

Putin knows GW is bluffing

Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 12:53 PM

Bush may be bluffing. However, if you “read between the lines” DEBKA seems to think that he is not bluffing. Maybe Bush is bluffing but Putin won’t take the chance that he is not, then we will never know if Bush was only bluffing. Maybe Putin thinks that he is bluffing and forge ahead and then we will all find out that Bush was bluffing or will all find out that Bush was not bluffing.

Wait and See.

Well, technically you can. Just not a cost effective efficient method. You can derive alcohol from bread. Dried bread burns.

[But, I understand your point.]

You can’t eat oil.

MarkTheGreat on August 13, 2008 at 10:15 AM

And you can’t run your car or heat your house on bread.