Russia violating the cease-fire?
posted at 9:30 am on August 13, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Hours after publicly agreeing to a cease-fire with Georgia and supposedly pulling their troops back to their peacekeeping stations, Russian tanks continued to advance and fire on Gori, which has already taken the brunt of the fighting. Western journalists confirmed fresh smoke rising from an abandoned military base, and dozens of Russian tanks going in the wrong direction for a retreat:
Russian tanks have moved into the central Georgian city of Gori in apparent violation of a new ceasefire agreement, according to Georgian officials and eyewitnesses who reported black smoke rising over the town.
Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili charged that as many as 50 tanks had rolled into town and were “attacking Gori.” Russian military officials denied any fresh incursion.
Eyewitnesses, including western journalists, said they saw at least 10 Russian tanks in the city. It was not clear what they were targeting, but smoke was rising from the general vicinity of a recently built military base.
Constructed to NATO standards, the base had been abandoned by Georgian troops on Monday when they pulled back to Tbilisi to bolster defenses around the capital.
The cease-fire keeps Georgia from maneuvering its military within its own territory. In return, the Russians agreed to withdraw back to their peacekeeping positions with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It appears that the Russians want to destroy any facilities Georgia in tactically advantageous positions for their own defense before honoring the cease-fire.
The terms of the agreement aren’t all bad for either nation. Georgia didn’t get the unqualified recognition it wanted for its sovereignty in the two disputed provinces, but Russia agreed to international peacekeeping forces rather than remaining in place. That is a rather large concession, considering the military stranglehold Moscow had on Tbilisi, and apparently still has.
Why did the Russians back off? Peter Finn’s excellent analysis in the Washington Post gets it right. The Russian action threatened its economic interests, and as the rhetoric ramped up from the US and especially from Eastern Europe, Moscow began to have second thoughts. They have gone much farther than the US could ever have in demonstrating why Poland, the Czech Republic, and other states along Russia’s western frontier would need a strong missile defense. Five presidents of Eastern European nations traveled to Tbilisi this week in a very public rebuke to Vladimir Putin and support for Mikheil Saakashvili.
Russia failed in another, entirely predictable manner as well. If they wanted to depose Saakashvili, their efforts failed utterly. The Georgian president now enjoys massive popularity for defending his nation and refusing to knuckle under to Moscow. Politically, he is stronger than ever, and Putin just demonstrated to an entire new generation of Georgians why they need the West and why they can’t trust the Russians.
Later, though, Saakashvili will have to answer for his stumble into Russia’s hands with his attack on the South Ossetia capital of Tskhinvali. Putin and Medvedev clearly wanted a reason to attack Georgia, and their support for the separatists in these regions are well known. Why give them the cassus belli they sought with an attack on a city, rather than just strikes on separatist positions as they had conducted before?
Nevertheless, the Russians are once again trying to provoke Georgia into open warfare with their violation of the cease-fire in Gori. The world needs to keep holding Moscow accountable, and Western journalists need to keep reporting the truth in Georgia.
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If the Russians new that quality AMERICAN missiles were in the hands of Georgian defenders, I think that would make them significantly less bold in any further territorial advances…
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 11:26 AM
That and a little military experience in shaped IED charge development…
Skywise on August 13, 2008 at 11:28 AM
I agree. The Europeans hate us so much why should we get involved. The countries closest to Georgia should help too. Not a peep out of Turkey, Spain….France is stepping up, but no troops to send.
becki51758 on August 13, 2008 at 11:28 AM
That is GREAT news!
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Observe, leftists will only volunteer as human shields when the opposing force is America.
Why?
Because deep down, even leftist bastards know that America is the only civilized military force in the world. We do our best not to hurt innocent civilians.
In other words, the left knows that everything they broadcast to the world about America is a big fat lie.
Human shields still needed in Georgia, lefties. This time it’s real.
Anyone?
Bueller?
jeff_from_mpls on August 13, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Ed, I think you are misreading Putin, and it is part and parcel of our administration’s thinking that there is leverage here.
We have no leverage. Putin does not care a wit about economic interests or their standing or relationship with GW or the world. It is Oil, they got, we have to have it and are willing to pay a ton for it. Soviet / KGB dreams of pre-cold war domination. By the way, Georgia will be toast.
Know your enemy. The prime minister will be deposed or killed.
Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 11:29 AM
I will bet you $20 that Sarko will soon have troops in Georgia.
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 11:30 AM
hmmm..I’m not a betting person. I have no luck. ;)
becki51758 on August 13, 2008 at 11:32 AM
This is what Blackwater is for. Calling Eric Prince!
With zomg D3ltA! really protecting Shakashvili.
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 11:32 AM
a capella on August 13, 2008 at 11:11 AM
Javelins and Stingers in conjunction with more Green Berets are force multipliers that will allow the Georgians to bleed the Russians very badly. They will make it very expensive for the Russians to achieve their political aims. Think quagmire.
elduende on August 13, 2008 at 11:32 AM
I know I have posted this before, but I feel compelled to post it again.
In addition to his other amiable characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and they are all out sons-of-bitches, barbarians, and chronic drunks.
- George S. Patton
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Tell that to Garry Kasparov.
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 11:35 AM
I know I have posted this before, but I feel compelled to post it again.
In addition to his other amiable characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and they are all out sons-of-#itches, barbarians, and chronic drunks.
- George S. Patton
I hate having to put a “#” in his words, but some filter won’t let it through otherwise.
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 11:36 AM
That statement shows a painful level of ignorance.
BadgerHawk on August 13, 2008 at 11:36 AM
You make a very good point, and I really do hope you are right. I don’t think you are, but I hope you are.
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I understand your point of a coordinated effort. IMO, giving the Georgians the means to prolong the conflict also gives Old Europe more wiggle room to avoid becoming involved. I believe Germany was instrumental in denying Georgia NATO status. They did that because they didn’t want to engage in case this happened. The more effective the Georgian resistance, the more Old Europe can claim it did the right thing and avoid being involved. I see no benefit in allowing Russia to carpet bomb cities as retaliation for Georgian resistance activity. They don’t mind killing innocents.
a capella on August 13, 2008 at 11:37 AM
MB4:
I see you have done the math on troop percentages in Iraq as well. Georgia has nowhere near the per capita wealth we do, and yet they were right there next to us in strong numbers in Iraq. We can’t leave them out to dry.
BadgerHawk on August 13, 2008 at 11:38 AM
His whole post showed a level of trust in America’s enemies that boggles the mind.
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 11:38 AM
But what do you think about the last part “Do you think that Bush offered the Georgians anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and they said “Oh please no”? Shouldn’t they have some say, at least as much as we on Hotair have?
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 11:41 AM
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I hope I’m right too. All depends on how the Russians react to our arrival and then in the next few days/weeks to the pressure we exert to get them out of Georgia completely. It could still turn ugly but at least we’ve drawn that proverbial line with this action. Whatever else happens Georgia won’t go down all alone.
elduende on August 13, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Yea, I can’t figure him out lately. He’s been posting here for a long time and I never pegged him as even remotely unhinged until this conflict started. I’m pretty sure he’s going to make a stupid response to my calling him ignorant too, but hopefully he’ll see this and just withdraw for the day.
BadgerHawk on August 13, 2008 at 11:43 AM
I agree. And if Russia had honored the truce (which they haven’t) I’d be reluctantly agreeing with you. But now you’ve got one democracy attacking another one that happens to be allied with us and *helped us* with Iraq. Defending our friend is a good thing.
Skywise on August 13, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Plus we need to put a visible presence into Ukraine.
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 11:46 AM
I’d also like to edit a comment TA made in one of the headlines:
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Yes, I understand all that. I’m just saying that quagmires get a lot of civilians killed and Russia needs to be brought up short in her long term ambitions regarding the other parts of New Europe and energy monopolization. That will best be accomplished in the long run by a united front. I’m not opposed to supporting the effort,…not so sure about having our guys actively involved in the fighting. This latest move of having our people there on “humanitarian” missions is a good move. It forces Russia’s hand, but they are very good at chess.
a capella on August 13, 2008 at 11:49 AM
One C-17? ONE???
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 11:49 AM
First of all, how is Iran a Democracy with a theological authority overseeing the nation? Secondly, as I said, if Russia is a democracy, how is the person who is no longer President still running the country? How was Garry Kasparov allowed to be pushed out of the race thanks to the FSB threatening banquet halls not to rent to him in order to avoid him having the required event to announce his candidacy?
Russia was a democracy for a few years while Boris Yeltsin did his best to keep people from starving. An ex-KGB agent came in, ordered the poisoning of pro-Western leaders of the former Soviet satellite states, ordered irradiation of anti-Putin writers, ordered military aircraft to violate Western airspace, and prepared for the hibernation of the USSR to end.
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 11:51 AM
That would be about like an American President sending Custer a few more troops. Oh dear lord.
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Cut the crap. You’re not fooling everyone Miss.
JiangxiDad on August 13, 2008 at 11:55 AM
too many Americans think this none of our business and has no effect on us or our liberty, the idiocy of the America First protectionism is back.
jp on August 13, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Of course Putin is calling the bluff. Now we get to see those “New Europe” guys push back. It doesn’t need to be our face put on the effort for a while yet.
Yes, you could make a case that Bush’s early weakness with Putin (looking into his eyes blah blah) made this situation worse. I absolutely believe that Bush’s weakness in 2004 made the Iraq situation much worse. If he and the administration hadn’t gone all “hearts and minds” before the enemy was defeated, well …
So now perhaps it’s harder to get Putin to believe he’s going to pay serious consequences for this action. Just because something’s hard doesn’t mean you quit. And NEW Europe is up in arms (as they well should be) and working on the scene. We cannot pull the rug out from under them like they are little children, or incompetent employees or something.
And do any of you really, really think tha Putin gives a rat’s ass about the lives of Russian military members? So our jumping in half cocked militarily would still be stupid. Bush chose to NOT return the military to the cold war, Reagan administration size. We are still over 250,000 active duty folks down from then. We just don’t have massive force projection capabilities on short notice.
6 months? That’s a different story.
And if we send a force into the Black Sea thinking that Putin is going to blink, and he doesn’t … which, honestly, I doubt he will …
You people really want to go to war with Russia, unilaterally, on a landmass that is contiguous with their nation?
funky chicken on August 13, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Careful MB4, those troops had Gattling Guns with them. Unfort for Custer’s men, he despised them.
Reminds me of a quote I heard during BCT: Sir, Custer’s Quote is as follows: Oh $hit, where’d all these Indians comes from!
TheEJS on August 13, 2008 at 11:56 AM
a capella on August 13, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Don’t worry too much about the political angle, now that we’ve drawn a line the Euros will start to come on board diplomatically. Unfortunately the military line had to be drawn very fast or this whole thing would have become a fait accompli.
I can almost guarantee our military forces that have been in country have been involved in the fighting since the beginning. They are probably one of the major reasons the Georgian armed forces are still intact and viable.
elduende on August 13, 2008 at 11:56 AM
One is in the air and on it’s way now. The aid will be vigorous and ongoing.
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 11:57 AM
What the #uck are you talking about?
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 11:57 AM
pretty much, and he has Americans willfully turning a blind eye to it and History itself. Sick.
jp on August 13, 2008 at 11:58 AM
I think Putin just got put on notice by Bush to get the hell out of dodge.
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Awesome.
BadgerHawk on August 13, 2008 at 12:00 PM
I sure hope so. If he has maybe, since I can’t vote for McCain or Obama, and Barry Goldwater is dead, I will write his name in.
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Russia is a democracy.
I rarely cite wikopedia because it is so often inaccurate, but regarding a brief look-see of the Russian 2008 election that elevated Medvedev to the Presidency, and Putin to the Prime Ministry, here is something to read and then look at the “internals” and the backdrop against which this election was held in a nutshell. [Best to check out the references and citations.]
wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_presidential_election,_2008
Medvedev got 71% of the vote. Many candidates were ruled out of the running by a federal election commission, controlled by Putin, or had impassable roadblocks put in their way. Those that were allowed on the official ballot had no chance at all of garninering more than a very small percent of the vote. Zyuganov, representing the old Communist party; Zhironovsky, representing a hard-core nationalist front, Bogdanov, a democrat, but more close to reform-communism than anythnig else. But what comprised that 71% vote? A little research and reading will show that like most things
SovietRussian, the Potemkin Village is still very much alive and well. Most observers wrote this election off as a total farce.How does this have anything to do with Georgia? A good deal. It demonstrates that Putin, liumited to two terms as President, could not change the Constitutiion and make himself President for Life, as he wished. Medvedev was/is nothing more than a shill for Putin. The real power rests with Putin. Knock away the props that hold Putin up, and Putin falls. Money seems to be the common denominator of those props.
coldwarrior on August 13, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Georgian government sites cyberattacked days before conflict?
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 12:04 PM
No argument from me there. I’d say Putin has easily established an oligarchy if not a dictatorship in action… But it still is, technically, a democracy compared to China. You could easily point to examples here in the US about election manipulations too (hanging chads, voting dead, diebold, etc). (Not comparing the two directly I’m just saying we’re not immune here)
Iran does have a Democracy but their “church of england” has direct political power (I believe similar to one of our legislative houses). But Ahmadjihad still has a good chance of losing the next election. (Ironically meaning that Iran’s “democracy” is better than Russia’s “democracy” because the populace still has control)
Skywise on August 13, 2008 at 12:06 PM
I like a field artillery quote better, “If you hear a whoop-whoop on your one side, and then you hear a whoop-whoop on your other side, it is time to bend over and kiss your a$$ goodbye”.
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 12:07 PM
funky chicken on August 13, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Don’t forget we have over 150,000 troops on that very same landmass and only our NATO ally Turkey stands between us and Georgia.
elduende on August 13, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Seems the Russians and the Chinese have put a lot of military effort and credence into the efficacy of cyber-warfare. They don’t have FISA. And, they really don’t care a bit if Oleg or Sui Hui-Chai gets upset that they are being monitored. Cyberspace is one of our greatest stratgegic weaknesses.
coldwarrior on August 13, 2008 at 12:07 PM
True enough, but I doubt that Dinner Jacket’s chances would be in jeopardy were it not for the fact that the Ayatollah pretty much hates his guts.
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 12:10 PM
I just watched Bush announce that Condi is on her way to Georgia via France. Ongoing C-17 transports with vigorous and ongoing aid and US ship on the way to their port. And all aid will be under the direction of the US military. SO I guess that means an ongoing US military presence inside Georgia.
Bush also said that Russia was sinking Georgian vessel at the port.
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Reports: Russian Troops Quit Poti after Sinking Vessels
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 12:10 PM –
A Russian naval task force, led by the Moskva an anti-submarine cruiser that is large and looks like half an aircraft carrier and support ships, landed 3,000 Russian troops in Abkhazia (northwestern Georgia) circa Sunday/Monday, and there are reports that at least four Georgian naval ships have been destroyed, one at sea and three at berth in Poti.
There has been a lot of air activity going into Georgia over the past few days. There are four airfields around Tblisis, one being the international airport, the others primarily old Soviet-era fighter bases. That attack on the GC/approach radar at the international airport was designed to preclude aircraft from entering Tblisi airspace and landing at the airport. Seems to have been fixed.
coldwarrior on August 13, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Ahmadinejad only came to power because the party in power (Reformist and pro-western by Iranian standards) boycotted the elections. The previous President, if memoery serves correctly, won his two elections with an average of more than 85% of the vote. Even with the rigged system, when the people participate the extremists in Iran lose.
BadgerHawk on August 13, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Let’s play Olbermann’s “worst”: Ed not updating this story with Bush’s declaration, CJ at LGF posting Bush’s “newest statement” from yesterday, or the lizards not knowing what a C-17 is/if I can take off from a carrier/using a picture of an M2 Brad while describing an Abrams?
TheEJS on August 13, 2008 at 12:21 PM
should’ve listened to Patton originally, taken out the Soviets after Germany, don’t have any lingering problems with Germany or Japan on this front….why? because of “Nation Building”
jp on August 13, 2008 at 12:22 PM
They have the transcript up now.
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 12:23 PM
And there is a video link at the WH homepage:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 12:27 PM
CW: Maybe someone posted on this point afterwards. (I just now began reading this thread.) But isn’t Russia’s hammer over Europe’s cooperation with its itent the blackmail of withholding oil and natural gas? Didn’t Russia try to bring Ukraine to its knees with the denial of gas?
With winter coming, are all of the European nations at risk from this bullying that either denies energy or charges exhorbitant prices in order to bolster Russian economy?
onlineanalyst on August 13, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Wonderful. Lots of demands and not a word of repercussions for not meeting those demands.
MadisonConservative on August 13, 2008 at 12:28 PM
What the Ruskies heard: I’ve
alsodirected Secretary of Defense Bob Gates to begin ahumanitarianmission tothe people ofGeorgia,headedby the United States military. This mission will be vigorous and ongoing. A U.S.C-17aircraftwith humanitarian suppliesis on its way. And in the days ahead we will use U.S. aircraft, as well as naval forces, to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies.BTW thanks TG. Been waiting for a transcript of the speech.
TheEJS on August 13, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Welcome!
Yep that’s what I heard too! That along with SUPRISE .. we’re already in the air and on the way.
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 12:34 PM
onlineanalyst on August 13, 2008 at 12:27 PM –
Hence the importance of the three oil/gas lines crossing Georgia to the Black Sea or the Turkish Med port. Shutting down or expropriating these piplelines by Russia will cut off Turkmenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan from access to the West, and force them to route all oil/gas into Russia for linking up to the “Friendship” pipeline built in the 1980’s. It is this pipeline that presently carries most of the oil and gas Europe has been buying.
Will this make for a cold winter in Europe? Yes. But, France, for example, is the largest nuke energy producer in Europe. It can distribute that energy to other parts of Europe, make a profit along the way as well. We, here, well, most of us, finally realize how dangerous dependency on foreign energy is…maybe this Georgian excursion on the part of the Russians may tell Europe clearly, that all their talk about alternative energy sources really really makes sense from a national security perspective as well as an ecological one.
coldwarrior on August 13, 2008 at 12:37 PM
DEBKA – Bush orders US Air Force-Navy humanitarian airlift to Georgia
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the strong military actions a furious US president George W. Bush ordered Wednesday, Aug. 13, after seven days of Russian-Georgian warfare, amount to a bid to break the sea, land and air blockade Russia still maintains against Georgia in violation of the EU-brokered ceasefire.
The first direct US-Russian military clashes in Georgia are now possible if the Russians fail to give way when challenged by US air transports and vessels heading for Georgia. For seven days, Russia has exerted exclusive mastery of Georgia’s skies, sea and land routes.
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 12:46 PM
Won’t matter. Russian tanks can be in Tiblisi in an hour unopposed whenever they want.
The prime minister will simply ask for a flight out.
Putin knows GW is bluffing, regardless of what the Ruskies heard. Putin has already played this out and we will not engage. We should, we won’t.
Soon enough we will be delivering ‘humanitarian’ aid to an officer of the KGB.
The Russians will not buy this ‘meals on wheels’ posture. They have been planning this for too long and will have anticipated it.
Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 12:53 PM
And you can’t run your car or heat your house on bread.
dominigan on August 13, 2008 at 12:56 PM
dominigan on August 13, 2008 at 12:56 PM –
Well, technically you can. Just not a cost effective efficient method. You can derive alcohol from bread. Dried bread burns.
[But, I understand your point.]
coldwarrior on August 13, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Bush may be bluffing. However, if you “read between the lines” DEBKA seems to think that he is not bluffing. Maybe Bush is bluffing but Putin won’t take the chance that he is not, then we will never know if Bush was only bluffing. Maybe Putin thinks that he is bluffing and forge ahead and then we will all find out that Bush was bluffing or will all find out that Bush was not bluffing.
Wait and See.
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 1:03 PM
You know, I don’t think Bush is bluffing.
So, what will the Russians do? Fire on the C-17s? Try to sink one of our warships?
The Russians have overplayed their hand- they thought Bush would do nothing.
They were wrong.
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 1:06 PM
GW needs to look 60 days out and aniticipate Russian motives.
He then needs to proactively direct US foreign policy accordingly.
Currently, GW is predictable and reactive to Putin’s gambits. He is KGB for pete’s sake.
Assume there is no relationship. There is none. Russian foreign policy at this point is simply propaganda. Putin has correctly predicted that GW is slow to act, tentative, and mired in State Department mush and concerns about what the left will say in a political year.
Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Rich Lowry posted at NRO’s “The Corner” yesterday (8/12) the following information from Fred Kagan:
Updates can be found in the link provided in the above squib.
It looks as if Russia is playing hardball/hardass. Perhaps concessions have been made since August 12 in light of the pressure of the Baltic States.
onlineanalyst on August 13, 2008 at 1:11 PM
We’ll know in a few hours if the Russians want a war with us. say a prayer that they don’t. If they do they will lose badly.
elduende on August 13, 2008 at 1:12 PM
I hope you’re right and the Russians realize it. IMHO President Bush isn’t much on bluffing.
TooTall on August 13, 2008 at 1:12 PM
I don’t think I can actually recall a time in the last 8 years when Bush was bluffing.
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 1:17 PM
I agree. However, we have been communicating for permission to transfer Georgian troops from Iraq, and Putin will simply no longer grant ‘humanitarian’ flights at ‘this’ time, given the ‘instability’ or ’safety’ in a ‘war zone’.
Do you think we will have permission to engage? I think not.
Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Seems like lawyer-eze for: “Hey, they’re freeakin’ killing people over here!”
cntrlfrk on August 13, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Sergei said it absolutely best.
Entelechy on August 13, 2008 at 1:28 PM
I guess you have to parse ‘bluff’. 7 days on Georgia, years on Iran, years on Bin Laden……I could go on and on, and now denying Israel weapons?
My definition of bluff is – stating forcefully and defining a Bush doctrine after 9/11 regarding American policy toward countries and terrorists and then dithering for years regarding same.
Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 1:28 PM
Wait… I thought they obeyed Obama’s edict from Hawaii.
Chuck Schick on August 13, 2008 at 1:31 PM
I think that our Navy, if fired upon, will fire back. I am hoping that the C-17’s have an escort.
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Ditto. The bluff is only so good as the rules of engagement.
Starlink on August 13, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Well I thing that Patton said it best!!!
In addition to his other amiable characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and they are all out sons-of-#itches, barbarians, and chronic drunks.
- George S. Patton
MB4 on August 13, 2008 at 1:39 PM
MB4, I agree with Patton, and regret forever that he wasn’t allowed to flourish and finish his job. I might have been born into freedom.
However, he’s dead and Sergei is a great guy of Russian descent. I value his perspective more than anything.
Entelechy on August 13, 2008 at 1:45 PM
I’ve read a few of your musings here and it’s clear to me you have no objectivity where Bush or members of his administration are concerned.
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 1:47 PM
BTW – excellent quote!
TooTall on August 13, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Naval wise, Russian ships are pretty much toast as soon as the fighting starts UNLESS we don’t send in at least 4 Aegis/Burkes… or have no air cover at all.
They’ve got enough assets to put a lot of missles in the air, but most are old fly high type missles, that are easily shot down by our Standard missles… they have a few sea skimmers, but not many.
Essentaily its 70s technology against todays bleeding edge state of the art Teck… only way to take away the technological edge, is with a huge advantage in numbers.
Now, if they have staged forward, they do have a lot of Land Based Air with the legs to get invovled in anything around the Black Sea…
Real current problem is that none of the current stealth tech aircraft fly off of carriers… so we’d be fighting a generation back from our best available technology.
Romeo13 on August 13, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Romeo13 on August 13, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Actually I’m hoping they put nothing bigger than destroyers in there because the Black sea is going to be a bitch to fight in if things get ugly.The problem is no so much their decrepit Navy like you pointed out but the Russians can sortie airpower by the buttload out of southern Russia and the Crimea.
elduende on August 13, 2008 at 2:07 PM
We gamed this out a LOT during the Cold war, and the dynamic is how deep into the Black sea you go…
If you stage your carriers near Turkey, they still benefit from Air Force Assets there, while having the ability to project power over the battlespace… key is that a Lot of Soviet/Russian fighters had very short ranges… they were built as shorter range interceptors, vice longer range multirole fighters… kinda like the difference between the ME 109 and the Mustang in WWII… Mustang could range over most of Germany, even from Britain… ME109 didn’t even have good loiter time over Engalnd in the Battle of Britain, even from bases in France…
So, old battle plan was to extend the range as much as possible to keep as much of Soviet Air at the edge of its operational envelope…
But that still takes about 3 carriers in mutual support to be able to keep enough CAP up to do both defensive, and Offensive Ops…
Not a good idea, but its not a new idea by far.
Romeo13 on August 13, 2008 at 2:45 PM
I sure hope y’all are watching Condi’s press conference!
Texas Gal on August 13, 2008 at 3:25 PM
BREAKING:
pseudonominus on August 13, 2008 at 3:32 PM
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