Russia escalates war into western Georgia
posted at 12:40 pm on August 11, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Russia occupied an abandoned Georgian military installation in the west, on undisputed Georgian territory, as it escalated its offensive in the Caucasus. The move attempted to block Georgia from responding militarily in Abkhazia as well as preventing a further mobilization by Georgia of its armed forces:
Russian forces carried out military operations Monday around the west Georgian town of Senaki to prevent Georgian troops from regrouping there, news agencies reported, quoting the Russian defence ministry.
The reports were confirmed by a Georgian official.
Russian forces “are conducting an operation to prevent firing on South Ossetia and on Russian peacekeepers by Georgian artillery and the regrouping of Georgian forces aimed at new aggression towards South Ossetia,” RIA Novosti quoted a Russian defence ministry official as saying, in a report also carried by Interfax.
Earlier, the Russians disclaimed any intent to invade Georgia. This move not only belies their words but also their motives. It comes close to the Black Sea area, strategic for both nations, and threatens to cut Tbilisi off from its navy.
Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili implored the US and Europe to act in its defense:
Ostensibly, this war is about an unresolved separatist conflict. Yet in reality, it is a war about the independence and the future of Georgia. And above all, it is a war over the kind of Europe our children will live in. Let us be frank: This conflict is about the future of freedom in Europe.
No country of the former Soviet Union has made more progress toward consolidating democracy, eradicating corruption and building an independent foreign policy than Georgia. This is precisely what Russia seeks to crush.
This conflict is therefore about our common trans-Atlantic values of liberty and democracy. It is about the right of small nations to live freely and determine their own future. It is about the great power struggles for influence of the 20th century, versus the path of integration and unity defined by the European Union of the 21st. Georgia has made its choice.
Unfortunately, the Russians can make similar claims with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Unfortunately, the US and EU set this precedent several times over in the Balkans by endorsing and assisting the breakup of Yugoslavia. In those situations, we recognized the independence of ethnic enclaves to secede from their internationally-recognized countries without the general consent of their neighbors. This is especially true in Kosovo, which had been part of Serbia for centuries.
The Russian military attack on Georgia does have parallels to NATO attacks on Serbia in the 1990s, if one accepts the notion that Tbilisi oppressed its ethnic enclaves. Moscow can make those charges and claim just as much moral responsibility to protect Abkhazians and Ossetians from Tbilisi as we did for the breakaway republics in the Balkans, and if necessary they can fake a few atrocities to give it some PR value. We unleashed this diplomatic game, and Georgia gets to pay the price.
That doesn’t mean we can just throw up our hands and leave the Georgians to the tender mercies of Vladimir Putin. Even forgetting the strategic value of Georgia, the nation supported us in Iraq when most nations couldn’t be bothered, and we owe them our support now. The flights delivering their troops back to Georgia send a message to Moscow that we will not stand idly by while it rebuilds its empire in the Caucasus. We need to find other ways to sting Putin, especially economically, for his adventure.
But we shouldn’t pretend to be shocked at Russia’s convenient support of nationalism in the Caucasus after our own convenient support of it in the Balkans.
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Gee whiz. Russia never went to the UN for approval. I am sure we will see non-stop outrage on the left…oh, never mind.
GogglesPisano on August 11, 2008 at 12:42 PM
There’s a good photo essay at this Turkish source.
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 12:43 PM
Likewise, the leftists shouldn’t be supporting Russia in this enveavour (as they are) without likewise supporting the right of Israel to defend its borders…
Skywise on August 11, 2008 at 12:43 PM
This is so important that Obama’s got an emergency text message out to George Clooney!
Cicero43 on August 11, 2008 at 12:44 PM
…except that our actions were not in the interest of adding land to our name. Russia’s are. The Soviet machine was down for maintenance for a few years after ‘91, and it returned in full force when an ex-KGB leader took the reins.
MadisonConservative on August 11, 2008 at 12:47 PM
The trouble is that we need Russia’s “help” in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat. The Russians know this. That’s the trouble of multilateral engagement (also of Appeaser Condi Rice’s abandonment of the requirement that Iran stop enriching uranium before we’d talk to them).
The State Dept. “realists” who now seem to control Rice will no doubt make this argument, and say that we must let the Russians “have” Georgia in exchange for their “help” on Iran.
Just like the odious James Baker told Syria (nod, nod, wink, wink) that it could “have” Lebanon in exchange for Syria’s “help” in not getting involved opposing us in Desert Storm.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Blame Bush!!
Rogue Traveler on August 11, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Well, Bush is busy putting sunscreen on hotties, while Putin has flown home to deal with a major crisis.
Katrina, take two.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Russia has now made it clear that its intention isn’t independence for a people. It’s goal is invading and taking Georgia.
amerpundit on August 11, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Sadly, this is largely about oil.
moxie_neanderthal on August 11, 2008 at 12:51 PM
This has a repeating history back to the Balkans and even further back to the Sudatenland…..it seems one big circle ever ongoing. Saw Bush’s interview last night…does he honestly think his ’stern condemnation’ means a damn thing to Putin? Pootie looks at us and sees games, elections, financial woes and a military overstretched. This could well evolve into one HUGE problem which the MSM, and sadly this Administration, is relegating to 30 second sound bite blurbs….and then on to the ‘One’ and the Olympics fun! Shameful!
dustoffmom on August 11, 2008 at 12:51 PM
I opposed bombing Serbia and i sure as hell oppose bombing Georgia.
Russkies never had a problem with “atrocities” when they wiped out ‘their’ separatists. How many civilians they killed in Grozny? 50,000? 100,000? What kind of moral ground do they have? How stupid can the left be to take the moral equivalence stand here?
Aristotle on August 11, 2008 at 12:52 PM
There are some fascinating comments on Youtube from Russians about how CNN and the West is making all of this up. Russia just felt it was time to kill some civilians and remind the world what a bunch of barbarians they still are. They retreated like a virus back in the 90s, and are back to trying to infect the rest of the world with their own brand of Soviet terror.
Russians love to boast about their defeat of Nazi Germany, but forget about the part where they were allied with them until Hitler attacked Russia.
Hening on August 11, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Give me a break. Bush talked to Putin about this in China.
—
Georgia sent troops to Iraq. Even considering that a stable ME is in everyone’s interest, we still owe them something tangible for that support.
Spirit of 1776 on August 11, 2008 at 12:53 PM
When Russia absorbs Georgia back into mother Russia, what exactly will the price for aggression be?
An independent, solvent, America would have a great deal more influence.
Speakup on August 11, 2008 at 12:54 PM
Putin sees a country of fools sitting on huge oil and oil shale reserves that they will not develop because of crackpots like Nancy Pelosi who are “trying to save the planet.”
Oil is a strategic commodity, and anyone concerned with its strength on the international stage needs all it can get first from within its borders.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 12:54 PM
Vladamir Putin needs to sleep with the fishes. He is a tyrant and a troublemaker and his continued existence is a threat to the West.
Sydney Carton on August 11, 2008 at 12:55 PM
good post Ed, and I agree with it mostly. But I still don’t think we owe Georgia anything. We should have done the Iraq and Afghanistan thing ourselves. I’m not big on ‘coalition’ fighting when we can do just fine on our own. They chose to help. . . that’s that.
And Russia is occupying those military bases in Georgia STRATEGICALLY to protect their troops in Ossentia. America is the only country that fights war by handcuffing its troops with artificial lines that America can’t cross but the enemy can. Israel does this and I support it.
They may be trying to annex Georgia, but the taking of this base doesn’t support that notion. It is a tactic to protect Russian troops in the fight. . . something I wish America would do in the FATA region in Pakistan. . . but we won’t because we don’t understand what WAR means anymore.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 12:56 PM
After which, Putin flew home and had his troops cross from Ossetia into Georgia itself. Talking to Putin didn’t stop his tanks.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 12:56 PM
.
Further to that, if the Russians were concerned about oppressed peoples, they would not be blocking relief to those in Darfour.
Think_b4_speaking on August 11, 2008 at 12:56 PM
I wonder if Georgia became America’s best buds in Iraq just to play the card now. It seems groups smaller than Georgia (South Ossetia) don’t have the right of self determination like the Georgians do. Go figure.
BL@KBIRD on August 11, 2008 at 12:57 PM
This is larger than oil. It’s about NATO, missiles, M.A.D, influence, trade and mostly – sea ports. Everything besides the official reasons of “liberating” a “people” numbering as a small village at best.
Aristotle on August 11, 2008 at 12:57 PM
What’s real important in this crisis is:
What does George Clooney think about the whole thing???
Putin is trying to put Russia back on the map as a superpower. This is a blatant land grab to solidify Russia’s stranglehold on the oil in the Middle East and in parts of Europe. And the sad part is, he’s going to succeed. Because the UN doesn’t care and everyone else is too busy cheering for the suddenly completely innocent Chinese.
mjk on August 11, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Wow. That was awesome! With reconstructive skills like that, I sense a bright future for you over at TASS.
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 12:58 PM
The Russian move west tells us what we really need to know about this conflict.
They could not put in more troops until they were able to secure a second Line of Supply across the mountains. Looking at maps there are only three major Roads from the North… Two through mountain passes in Ossetia, and one on the coast. This move is there to support the coastal supply line… which they are already securing by moving troops into the NW seperatist region…
According to reports Russians currently have about 20K troops in Georgia… which is about all you could supply along two mountain roads using their technology… securing the coast road will allow them to supply more troops…
Look for another 20K troops to enter the battlespace in the next 72-96 hours.
Romeo13 on August 11, 2008 at 12:59 PM
From NRO Corner. But the Euros are too wussy and need Russian oil and gas. That’s why they vetoed Georgia’s membership. Putin put on the screws.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 1:00 PM
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 12:58 PM
so you expect every country to fight wars as incompetently as America does and give the enemy a safe base?
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:01 PM
.
I don’t think so. This type of activity has been going on along the southern borders of Russia for hundreds of years. I think it has more to do with the Orthodox vs muslim conflict, as this region is part of the historical religious border.
Think_b4_speaking on August 11, 2008 at 1:01 PM
What were you wanting him to do? Put Putin in a hammerlock? Don’t minimize him with that silly suntun lotion stuff. He is over supporting our athletes and met with both China and Russia. In today’s world he can do the job from anywhere, pretty much.
The President of the US is probably the most powerful man in the world, but he’s not Superman. Let’s stop acting like if he snapped his fingers, this would be over.
Spirit of 1776 on August 11, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Not to mention the part where the NAZIs were kicking their ass all over the place and would’ve wiped them out if it wasn’t for US material (and eventually, military) support.
Darth Executor on August 11, 2008 at 1:01 PM
What’s with the moral relativism? I can recognize the difference. Can’t you?
ronsfi on August 11, 2008 at 1:02 PM
Sigh…RUSSIA WILL NEVER HELP WITH IRAN OR THEY WOULD HAVE YEARS AGO!
GogglesPisano on August 11, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Do you really want to live in a world where every ethnic group numbering 60,000 people or less would have the right of “self determination”? I sure would not.
Aristotle on August 11, 2008 at 1:04 PM
From Blackfive
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 1:04 PM
Putin is blaiming Georgia for attack Russia
William Amos on August 11, 2008 at 1:04 PM
UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE
ABC radio news just reported that Russian forces have enetered the Georgian village of Gori.
So, what is your excuse for this, ThackerAgency?
pseudonominus on August 11, 2008 at 1:04 PM
Supporting a military ally in a fight for its independent existence or supporting a volleyball team? Which picture should the world (including Georgia and Russia, and all the threatened border countries see?).
Appearances matter.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 1:06 PM
Just to transfer some of my comments onto this thread:
My first question upon hearing about this incident is did we give Georgia the green light to attack Ossetia or did they do this on their own?
It could be a compromise with Russia on Iran. Back in the early days of the GWOT, there were whispers in the press that we would give the Russians Georgia in return for better cooperation with the GWOT. We may have let this ally burn to appease another, Israel, with regard to Iran. To follow this hypothetical, regardless of if we left them out to dry on purpose or not, we would have to at least make it look like we disapprove. It’s kind of the opposite of the April Glaspie incident with Iraq where we downplayed our response to invasion, here with regards to Georgia we may have inflated our assurances to them in order to complete a compromise with Russia, but once again this is just one possibility.
LevStrauss on August 11, 2008 at 1:06 PM
Not on Georgian land they don’t. The Georgians allowed them to settle there after they were chased out of their lands by the mongols. Their gratitude was expressed through willing collaboration with the Soviet Union and raping Georgia of its land so it can give it to the real “Great Satan”.
Darth Executor on August 11, 2008 at 1:08 PM
“Sadly, this is largely about oil.”
Enough of that stupid left wing mantra. It doesn’t matter what it’s about, the real issue is that it is reminiscent of Hungary in the 50s and the Sudetenland in the 30s. We have a major dictatorial military power overrunning small democracies and that should scare the hell out of anyone with even half a brain. The dumb ass, narcissistic politicos had better get their heads out of their collective backsides before we all suffer a similar fate.
rplat on August 11, 2008 at 1:08 PM
I read the first two sentences of your mumbo, and thought “This guy must be a Troother/Paultard”. And then i clicked your blog link.
Aristotle on August 11, 2008 at 1:10 PM
According to Drudge, the Georgian forces are now retreating to defend their capital. Not the capitol of South Ossetia, the capital of Georgia, Tbilisi. This is a full scale invasion and regime change to a Russian puppet state.
Next up: Ukraine?
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Russa has 20,000 troops in Georgia approximately 48 hours after this war started. They have strategically placed their ships on the coast with 48 hours. They have routed the Georgians, within 48 hours.
Anyone with a brain should be able to figure out that the Russians were mobilized and waiting to invade Georgia in the slightest pretext.
I also think it’s clear that Russia wants to either annex Georgia or occupy it with a puppet government, like the Soviet Union did to its eastern european states. They want control of the oil & natural gas pipelines that run through Georgia proper, to cut off Western access to the oilfields of the Caucus region.
This was a planned, premeditated attack on Georgia by Russia, for the express purpose of destroying the pro-western stance of Georgia and denying the West access to oil resources outside of Russian control.
It is effectively an attack on the West.
Now, it might be that in the short-run, America cannot stop Georgia from being invaded in whole. And we don’t want to directly attack Russia. But I would do everything in my power, as President, to deny Russia a victory here, in the short term and in the long term. And while it’s imagry and perception, I am flabbergasted of the contrast between Bush’s enjoyment of the Olympics and the scenes of destruction from our democratic ally Georgia. Bush should immediately fly to Washington, dispatch Cheney to Georgia, Rice to Russia, and tell everyone involved that America is not to be messed with and that Russia’s attack on Georgia imperils American interests and that we will do everything to see that they retreat with their tails between their legs.
If we throw Georgia to the wolves here, it will not only destroy (not damage, but destroy) our influence in other developing democracies in the region, it will also deny us to the oil that Georgia has been happy to provide, deny us a link to the Western regions of Iran, deny us pivotal access to a strategic area of the world, and it will also show us to be utterly incapable of acting against a strong power. Do you think China or Iran won’t notice that?
Sydney Carton on August 11, 2008 at 1:12 PM
And let’s not forget that there was that other factor known as the weather that put a damper on the Nazi progress. Very poor tactical decision by Nazi Germany to attack when they did. Germany was marching through Russia quickly, and likely would have defeated them if they hadn’t bogged down.
Rick on August 11, 2008 at 1:13 PM
Why do they need our permission to protect their own territory from the most insidious political entity in the history of mankind?
Darth Executor on August 11, 2008 at 1:14 PM
A new “Red Dawn.”
Rick on August 11, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Precisely. Every bit as mature as the call to send a couple of squadrons of US fighter jets over to Georgia to provide them an Air Force.
New Europe’s leaders are standing up, and Finland is helping them too. Our role is to support them in those efforts. The 24/7 news cycle cannot dictate our military’s strategic behavior.
And the Bush “chat” with Putin looked pretty strong on Bush’s part to me when I saw the video.
Of course, why would Putin fly home? Isn’t he retired? (yeah, eyeroll).
funky chicken on August 11, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Lev Strauss So this is Israel’s fault too?
funky chicken on August 11, 2008 at 1:15 PM
1948 – War Of Independence – Russia supplied weapons to the Armies attacking Israel. (too bad they lost)
1967 – 6 day War – Russia Supplied weapons to Syria, Egypt, and Jordan (too bad they lost)
1973 – Yom Kippur War – Russia supplied weapons to Syrian and Egypt (too bad they lost)
Syria’s Nuclear technology
Iran’s Nuclear Technology
You think that crap fell out of the sky? Idiot.
mjk on August 11, 2008 at 1:15 PM
I’m not shocked by Russia but I don’t see the parallel between what Russia is doing and what the US and EU supported in the Balkans. Unless of course, you believe that Putin actually supports independence in the 2 break away provinces. That would be like giving the fox the benefit of the doubt while he sits on the roof of the hen house.
Texas Gal on August 11, 2008 at 1:16 PM
From the London Times. Now Russia is demanding that the Georgian leader resign.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 1:17 PM
You seem thrilled at the prospect of throwing the US into a war against Russia. Maybe you should curb your enthusiasm for a moment. I thought that is what this was about.
As I said, just because America fights wars with handcuffs on doesn’t mean other countries will. If we fight, Russia knows that we will allow them a safe haven in Russia even if we do defeat them and beat them out of Russia. America certainly won’t go into Russia and take bases or strongholds. Hey even after Iraq we had a hard time with the concept of clear and HOLD. It took 4 years of floundering before we realized that war was ugly.
The world respects Russia because they know Russia will do what it has to. The world doesn’t respect America because America won’t do what it takes other than make a show of ’shock and awe’. Why haven’t we done anything about Iran yet? Why won’t we ever?
Anyway, I’m glad you wet yourself over the idea of WWIII and think it’s a glorious thing. I personally don’t think that Georgia is worth WWIII over.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Don’t forget we have our very own ethic group, some of which, claim our Southwest, and what about all the other ethic groups we import. It’s not like populations of Muslims, once they reach a certain size, have ever been shy about demanding autonomy. How long before they figure the U.S. is plenty large enough to be carved up. We gleefully opened a kettle of worms Kosovo.
DFCtomm on August 11, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Excellent analysis and comments on The Belmont Club.
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2008/08/10/what-next/#more-124
Take particular note of the message Cheney delivered.
a capella on August 11, 2008 at 1:19 PM
So tell me your opinion, did we give Georgia the green light to attack Ossetia or not, because there lies the answer? That answer in conjunction to our response will help us clear the air because right now the fog of war has too many unanswered questions.
But your response is just the usual unintelligent drivel that makes your name so ironic. Aristotle would have found a much better way to respond, your response is rather vulgar and childish.
LevStrauss on August 11, 2008 at 1:19 PM
you guys sound like the moonbats who scream that Bush should have panicked on 9/11 and sprinted for AF 1 and then zoomed straight back to the White House before we even had a full accounting of what was happening. sorry.
The administration is engaged. It’s not “Brownie” on the ground this time. Tragically, past reliance on cronies and idiots has made Bush susceptible to these concerns, but it’s best in this situation for him to stay put right now. Bush 41 is with him over in China, and they are spending lots of time with the Chinese leadership. Sure, lots of it is social….but Bush 41 has deep ties to China and we need to keep them off Putin’s side in this thing.
funky chicken on August 11, 2008 at 1:22 PM
I would imagine that ThackerAgency would categorize the taking of Gori as merely a “tactical redeployment” meant to protect their right flank.
And the coming siege of Tbilisi? Why, that’s simply an insertion of “peacekeeping forces” meant to prevent the ethnic cleansing taking place in South Ossetia.
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 1:23 PM
If flying a relative handful of troops back to Georgia is the only thing that the United States is doing of any substance then it shows that the United States will come very close to standing idly by though.
MB4 on August 11, 2008 at 1:23 PM
RIght now if I was the US I’d go to Ukraine and Poland and East European nations and ask them if they want Missile Defense and to join NATO now
William Amos on August 11, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Bosnia before that…
funky chicken on August 11, 2008 at 1:25 PM
No it is just a possibility. If my hypothetical is right, it is not Israel’s fault, just a consequence of how foreign policy is conducted. Other powers use the same tactics. Client states are as useful as their benefits, if it benefits us to screw one over to accomplish a bigger objective and appease another or merely retain a bigger objective for ourselves we do it. I don’t think there are any other powers with client states that would not do so. Look at the Cold War, there were lots of secret dealings, that is how Geopolitics is conducted. If we gave Georgia the green light to invade, which makes the most sense to me at this current moment, and if we sit back and watch, then what other conclusions are there to draw other than some agreement was made with Russia. We aren’t going to sit back and watch them burn after giving them a green light for no benefit, if so then some heads surely should roll.
LevStrauss on August 11, 2008 at 1:26 PM
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 1:23 PM
again, what do you want us to do? We haven’t even engaged the Sudan yet and they aren’t a nuclear power. What do you suggest? Should we redeploy our men from Iraq? Afghanistan? Maybe we should send over our B1 bombers to bomb them back to the stone ages. . . wait a minute. . would we bomb Georgia (where Russian troops are) or Russia to force them to retreat to defend?
This isn’t our war. Do I approve of Russia doing this? No. Am I willing to do something about it? No.
This is mostly like a kid in a store throwing a tantrum in front of his parents. Would I like to spank the kid and tell him to straighten up? Sure. . . but I’m not the parent. It’s not my fight.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:27 PM
dustoffmom on August 11, 2008 at 1:30 PM
According to Drudge, the Russians now control a majority of the territory of Georgia itself and are advancing on the capital.
Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Allow me to repost the comment I added over at the Belmont Club. And with all due respect, I would be interested to hear your reply.
So at what point does an all-out assault on a staunch ally become “significant” to the U.S. and worthy of more than a State Department news conference?
Today? Next week? Next year? Never?
The lesson our present allies can take from this is; it might be a good time to re-think your strategic plans in the years to come.
And each hour that goes by is another hour Russia has to strengthen its tactical situation. We are dropping the ball on this BIG time.
I propose some form of direct intervention by our military. It appears that you do not. I can respect that opinion, but would like to know why you feel that way.
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 1:30 PM
I don’t think anyone wants a war with Russia. But I will not accept Russia invading a democratic ally of the United States for its own imperial purposes to gain access to oil. I also will not accept the re-emergence of the Russian empire.
We could destroy Russia tomorrow with one flight of B-2 bombers using conventional weapons. Russia has no airpower in response to ours and while they might be able to hold the ground, our airpower in combination with Georgian ground forces would wipe out the Russian army. If it came to a shooting war, America would kick Russia’s ass, even if we decided to be proportional in our response and only attacked military targets.
The world does not respect Russia, though it might fear them. Russia, as of today, has no international clout apart from its force and its control of natural resources. People respect America because they know America is the only one that can stand up to this aggression. You sound like someone in 1939 who thinks that the World respects Germany. In case you’re not clear: democratic people do not like tyrants, period.
And your insistence that America has no business with Georgia shows how ignorant you are of the strategic implications of the region, and how potentially America needs Georgia in order to be in a position to do something with regards to Iran.
Sydney Carton on August 11, 2008 at 1:32 PM
HuffPo comment section is always good for a laugh:
Quoting studies already discredited, pushing conspiracy theories, and having no grasp of world history. Nice place you’ve got there, Arianna.
amerpundit on August 11, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Anyone have a link to a ‘personal’ blog out of there? I’ve been looking this morning but mostly find ‘peace&love’ type things or ‘news’ sites. Would like to read what ‘average’ Georgians are thinking/saying.
dustoffmom on August 11, 2008 at 1:33 PM
After looking at supply routes and such for a bit, from a strictly military standpoint?
There is not squat we CAN do.
Unless Turkey gives us overflight rights, or Ukraine gives us bases, we can’t even enter the battlespace with Airpower.
Naval Assets will not enter the Black Sea… its too constricted for our deepwater Navy… and Carrier assets sitting in the Med have the same overflight problems.
We don’t have the ability to put in troops or supplies as we have no secure supply lines. We do have supplies in Turkey, but the aggreement we have with Turkey is that those are for Iraq.
So, key to us doing anything except bitch, pretty much depends on Turkey.
Now, Turkey may not want a suddenly militant Russia sitting on its Northern Border… so it will be interesting to see what THEY do…
Romeo13 on August 11, 2008 at 1:34 PM
wccawa, I feel that way because America gains NOTHING by getting involved here. America risks losing men, machines, and money without gaining anything. Would I support defending GEORGIA (the American state with Atlanta as the capital), YES.
We gain ZERO by intervening here. This isn’t our fight. Are they an ally? Yes. . . but this isn’t our fight. I don’t want to pay for someone else’s war just to get us involved in a possible nuclear contest that becomes our fight.
The founding fathers warned against military alliances. They are a bad idea. They always have been a bad idea.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:34 PM
The almost financially “bankrupt” and energy dependent United States is going to do that to a Russia that is awash in oil, natural gas, etc.? How?
Russia’s foreign reserves climb to $406.6 billion
MB4 on August 11, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Holy smokes…..do you mean this? Yes, they are an ALLY! What in the hell do you think NATO is about? If our allies can not depend on us we indeed stand alone! Not ever a good thing.
dustoffmom on August 11, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Earlier, the Russians disclaimed any intent to invade Georgia. This move not only belies their words but also their motives.
Not that anybody believed them … well, ‘cept maybe Jimmy Carter.
Tony737 on August 11, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Then lets do that. Lets rid the world of the Russian juggernaut once and for all. People here want to fight, but they don’t want to fight. And with the push of a button, Russia can get rid of all of it’s nuclear arsenal on American soil – still.
Even your advocation of intervening is only to fight up to the border with Russia. Russia will just launch from Russia unless we attack them in Russia.
I would rather be feared. America was only feared after detonating the nuclear bomb. Now America is the joke who can’t apologize fast enough for our military success and might.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Our chickens are coming home to roost?
Sorry. Couldn’t resist. But you’re sounding very much like a cynical foreign policy realist of the Kissinger-Baker school right now, Ed. There’s a heckuva difference in these situations: in Slovenia, Bosnia, and Kosovo, we were defending people fighting a bloodthirsty Serbian fascism. In Georgia, Russian actions show that their excuses about protecting the South Ossetians are nothing more than a badly shredded fig leaf. The core of this crisis is that they have invaded a loyal democratic ally of the United States and are trying to replace an elected democratic regime with a puppet. This is not equivalent to the breakup of Yugoslavia, it is Hungary and Czechoslovakia all over again.
Your repeated references to the Yugoslav breakup are correct in that they surely reflect Kremlin thinking, but this in no way justifies or excuses* the Russian rape of Georgia, nor does that situation in any way lessen our obligation and need to render all aid short of war to a nation that has been, I repeat, a democratic and loyal ally.
*(To be clear, I’m not saying you’re excusing Moscow. I’ve been reading you for too long to think that. But I have seen others trying to draw a more direct equivalence.)
irishspy on August 11, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Just when you thought it was safe to cast a protest vote, by not voting, against McCain, although I’m not at all sure that inducting former soviet states into Nato is a good idea. Nato consists of our team, and European cheerleaders, who have been weakened by years of dependence on us for their security. Somebody que up the Bonnie Tyler, cause were definitely holding out for a hero.
DFCtomm on August 11, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Neither. We establish air superiority then bomb roads to kill their supply lines and have the Georgian army lay siege to S Ossetia with our bombers targetting any Russian soldiers or vehicles who attempt to leave the area (both to retreat or to advance further). I can assure you that if we can use sattelites to catch a hobo pissing in the bushes, we can bomb Russian troop concentrations without bombing all of Georgia. After we’ve ballslapped them enough Russia will be more than happy to negotiate, we get to humiliate their stupid asses while America raises her reputation and fear of American air superiority will strike like a dagger in the hearts of our enemies everywhere.
On a personal level, I’m completely disgusted with your willingless to let a loyal ally burn because it’s too inconvenient to help. In that respect you’re no different from a liberal or a ronulan.
Darth Executor on August 11, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Some months ago, when Kosovo’s declaration of independence was recognized by most Western European countries and the United States (and, after a delay, Canada)I remember writing a comment (here or maybe on CQ) that this was a mistake. For starters, I didn’t like the idea that the UN was involved in the breaking up of sovereign states, but also it opened up a possibility for Russian mischief in Georgia. And so, here we are.
One thing that is clear now is that any role the United Nations ever had as an organ for the preservation of international security, law and order is is a thing of the past. While the Security Council may, in the future, serve as a round table for the drafting of “agreements”, which will do no more than ratify the facts on the ground (as permitted by the “Big Five”) it can do nothing to enforce international law opposed by any veto holder. As a consequnce, its role as a creator of international law ought to be eliminated.
The situation in Georgia has exposed the UN for what it is.
Blaise on August 11, 2008 at 1:40 PM
I can understand the tactical reasons you list, but have you given any thought to the long-term strategic cost to the U.S. in doing nothing here?
Go to a map. Find all of our so-called “allies” from the Baltic to south Asia. Erase the alliances we have with them. What do you see?
You are happy to throw Georgia under the bus. I get that, although I am slack-jawed to know that anyone could be pleased with themselves for saying so.
At the very least, we should very publicly announce the insertion of air assets over Georgia. We (and by we, I mean us AND our ally, Georgia) need to quickly re-claim air superiority. At that point, this things ends. And quickly.
But this is NOT a tactical scenario well-suited for weeks of UN deliberations, speeches and press conferences. What you are witnessing is blitzkrieg being waged on a very staunch ally of the United States, and a country being overrun in hours. I, for one, would support the wholesale defense of that ally.
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 1:41 PM
It’s not only that, either. What is to stop Russia from doing this in other countries with resources that it covets? Or other countries with strategic value.
If Georgia didn’t have an oil pipeline and resources that are beneficial to the west, Russia wouldn’t care about South Ossetia at all.
This is a huge test for the west, and I’m not confident we will pass.
reaganaut on August 11, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Not even necessary. They are getting a nice, up close and personal wake up call. They are responding well so far. We need to support them, but not come stomping in to take over and thus brush them aside like they are idiots or incompetents. They aren’t…..
It’s also nice that Obama and Richardson have chosen to show folks that they are either on Russia’s side or both too stupid to understand the whole UN Security Council veto concept. That fact won’t be lost on our friends in “New Europe” and hopefully won’t be lost on the American electorate.
And the fact that the leader of Georgia is a Soros man gives me some pause. If you google it you will find lots of crazy, but I found a reputable news article about it in the Globe and Mail from 2003. If anybody is interested, I’ll go find it again.
funky chicken on August 11, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Georgia is not a member of NATO. The Sudan can’t depend on us. Israel can’t depend on us (see Hezbollah, Iran), but you want us to get in a fight with the only country capable of wiping American civilians out over GEORGIA?
fantastic. . . we have a bunch of military geniuses here. I’d join the military but I don’t want to fight for other countries. I want to fight for America. We only fight for other countries, never for ourselves. We won’t have military superiority forever and nobody will help us. . . Georgia won’t.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Check out the pipeline map. Russia will soon control this, and not only squeeze the Europeans on the oil, but also the former Soviet republics (independent for now…) that have the oil for
tributefees.Wethal on August 11, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Stop putting words into my mouth, you creep.
You are no better than the KosKids.
pseudonominus on August 11, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Poland along with most of the Iron Curtain nations are in NATO already. It’s mostly the nations that used to be a part of the Soviet Union that need the membership.
Darth Executor on August 11, 2008 at 1:43 PM
I’m with you. Peace in our time…time? Eff it! Let’s Roll!
ronsfi on August 11, 2008 at 1:43 PM
If that is anything like true, rather than an exaggeration by Drudge, then the Russians must have been planing and positioning troops and equipment for this for quite some time. And our CIA never noticed? Supposedly anyway, we can not even move several thousand troops and their equipment out of Iraq to Kuwait per month.
MB4 on August 11, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Therin lies the problem I think….we’ve been the ‘hero’ for so long now, like it or not, and suddenly we’re percieved as the paper tiger and Russia is more than happy to take all advantage of that. If we don’t do more now we might just relagate ourselves to back seat driver for a very long time to come.
dustoffmom on August 11, 2008 at 1:44 PM
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 1:41 PM
we’ll have to agree to disagree. If you want to fight a war with Russia, then fine, let’s fight. I don’t want to fight a ‘war’ by letting Russia retreat behind the borders the second America might happen to get an upper hand in the fight.
To me a former Soviet State (not even 20 years ago) is not worth American resources at all.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:44 PM
I’m fairly certain that was the reason America stayed out of the Nazi thing too. But hey, what’s 72 million people dead when it ain’t our fight anyway…..
Isolationism and diplomacy with thugs leads to heartache and death on an unprecedented scale. But hey, let’s try it again!!!!
mjk on August 11, 2008 at 1:44 PM
That was exactly my point yesterday. Back when you were saying it would be “easy” and we were betrying an ally by not doing it.
funky chicken on August 11, 2008 at 1:45 PM
How about fighting for Liberty? For all.
ronsfi on August 11, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Yeah, I’m sure Russia will be more than happy to start a nuclear war over South Ossetia. What are you, retarded?
Darth Executor on August 11, 2008 at 1:47 PM
You would be a lousy, lousy friend.
Isolationism doesn’t work. See: History, World, 20th century.
wccawa on August 11, 2008 at 1:47 PM
I don’t need friends. Russia doesn’t need friends. America shouldn’t need friends, but we treat the world like romper room.
ThackerAgency on August 11, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Chickens roosting? Probably not, just the nasty reality of international power, what the Froggies used to call “fort mayne.” We may be able to keep Russia from doing everything they’d like – and Europe should be real happy about that – but that does NOT make the opposite proposition true. We cannot force Russia to do anything, such as not stomping on their former subject nations. We do not have the power, in real political/military terms, to force the outcome we would like.
Never did, “superpower” or not.
Azerbaijan, take note. I’d class you as “next on the hit parade”, personally.
mojo on August 11, 2008 at 1:49 PM
We have worked diligently to place ourselves in this powerless position for years now. Congratulations! We have finally reached our destination.
DFCtomm on August 11, 2008 at 1:50 PM
I’ll be your friend. We all need friends.
ronsfi on August 11, 2008 at 1:50 PM
I was thinking the same thing yesterday, but then I got out a map.
You can’t run an air campaign without bases… soooo…
We have air assets in Germany, but they would have to fly over multiple countries to reach the battlespace.
We have Air in Iraq and such, but we have to fly over Turkey, and thus would need both Iraq’s and Turkeys permission to fly combat sorties from there.
Carriers would be toast in the Black Sea… and so would have to fly over Turkey or Syria, to reach the battlespace…
We could stage out of Georgian bases, but we have no line of supply into Gerogia except by air… which would limit our response AND need overflight from Turkey or others….
We’re hamstringed unless we can get aggreements from other countries to LET us get to the battle zone.
Romeo13 on August 11, 2008 at 1:50 PM
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