Ukraine enters the Caucasus fray
posted at 11:00 am on August 10, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Ukraine delivered a diplomatic bombshell across Russia’s bow today, escalating tensions in the region over their invasion of South Ossetia. The Kiev government announced that they may bar the Russian Navy from using their ports in the Crimea as part of its effort to maintain neutrality. Moscow had negotiated leases through 2017 with Kiev, and needs the ports to support its war on Georgia:
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said the deployment of a Russian naval squadron to Georgia’s Black sea coast has the potential of drawing Ukraine into the conflict.
“In order to prevent the circumstances in which Ukraine could be drawn into a military conflict … Ukraine reserves the right to bar ships which may take part in these actions from returning to the Ukrainian territory until the conflict is solved,” said the statement which was posted on the ministry’s Web site.
The Ukraine government didn’t need a reminder of how Russia treats its former satellites when they get too independent, but they’re certainly learning from the Georgian example. Ukraine’s move makes it clear to Vladimir Putin that Russia will pay a steep political and military price for their adventure in the Caucasus. It also sends a signal of support to the beleaguered government in Tbilisi, which can use all the friends it can get at the moment.
Russia seemed surprised at the statement. Their defense minister called the warning “quite unexpected”, but it follows normal diplomatic protocols. Any nation providing military support for a belligerent during an armed conflict is a de facto belligerent themselves, unless they cut off that support. Ukraine’s action isn’t just expected but a normal response for any nation wishing to remain at least neutral.
Russia may gain South Ossetia and Abkhazia in this grab, but Putin has let the mask slip. Former Soviet republics will learn to to fear Russia and to gravitate to the West for protection — as long as we stand firmly for Georgia. Fortunately, the Bush administration is now following John McCain’s lead on this issue and sending exactly that signal.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 Next »
The timing of this whole event, strongly indicates it was cleverly planned. He very well might look at Bush and think he is tied up with other projects. I don’t doubt that at all, but I believe Bush understands that is part of the risk run in fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq. As far as not getting anything done wrt to Russia, again I refer you to Bolton’s book which should put that fear to rest. It is more fair, I think, to say, that we are adversaries in some aspects and allies in others.
Spirit of 1776 on August 10, 2008 at 2:09 PM
IF the US and Georgias neighbors take a stand, Russia will be humiliated and set back. It could cause regime change there. If we punk out, act like Euro-weenies (or almost as bad, US liberals) and let Russia do what it wants, we will have that war eventually anyway.
We need to start flying CAP over Ukraine now, and then Georgia. Turkey will have a role too, if they haven’t sunk too far down in the Islamic crapper.
Better to engage Russians in Georgia now than to let this crap continue. Russia, the muslisms and the Chinese all do not respect restraint, just strength.
Spartacus on August 10, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Understatement of about the last 50 years.
MB4 on August 10, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Here’s a map of the region. Just zoom out and and take a look.
Oldnuke on August 10, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Which is precisely what the Press Secretary will often do, though in different words. Like “I’ll get back to on that” or “The President will speak on that later today/tomorrow”. She does that with some frequency.
Spirit of 1776 on August 10, 2008 at 2:10 PM
“/sarc on… sort of…”
Hmmmm… reading comprehension problems today? Or are you so personaly invested that you prefer not to even try?
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Do you all forget so soon?
Russian military planes have been going into our airspace for a few years now. Of course the MSM won’t cover it.
Just a couple weeks ago, 2 Russian military planes were in Alaskan airspace.. aka the United States.
They have also been doing fly over on our Naval ships.
The Russians, for whatever reason, are looking to pick a fight. Why not pick on the smaller splinters so the bigger dogs can come in and help. The only thing is that Russia wasn’t expecting the other splinters to ban together…. so SURPRISE!
So what will Mother Russia do now?
upinak on August 10, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Bush is a weak president just that events have weakened his and our position. I think the only real point of disagreement between us is whether Bush got snookered or not. As you said in your post Putin is going to act in his and what he sees as Russia’s best interest. He’s no fool but he is a cold blooded, highly motivated, charismatic leader in almost total control of his country. Unlike Hugo Chavez he’s dangerous.
Oldnuke on August 10, 2008 at 2:16 PM
We agree. Even on the point of having one point of disagreement :)
Spirit of 1776 on August 10, 2008 at 2:19 PM
Chavez is the poodle that Putin likes. You stroke his ego you get what you want. Only problem is Chavez has sympatic rage syndrom… and will go off without licking the master first.
Iran may want to stop the nuke program soon too. Their master.. aka Putin, might think they are whining and cut them off either way.
upinak on August 10, 2008 at 2:19 PM
In a lot of aspects, I’m inclined, unfortunately, to agree. However, one thing you’ve got to remember as a Cold War era veteran (like I am), is that we think differently from the politicians. We think in terms of just getting into the fight and doing what we have to, to win. We care very little about the fallout of said fight, unless it’s radiologically, chemically or biologically contaminated, and even then, with MOPP suits, we can continue fighting. Politicans see everything in shades of political fallout. While we both see a war with Russia (still viewed by myself as the USSR and the Evil Empire) as being one of the most (if not the most) grave military undertaking possible, even over a fight with China, we (servicemen and politicians) worry about different things. We worry, primarily, about fatalities and casualties, because they’re the people that stand in front of, beside and behind us. Politicains worry about the same thing, but primarily in terms of poll numbers, Zogby ratings, and political backlash. Asking ANY politician to commit us (the forces) to a possible fight to the finish with the Russians is a tall order that most that are regarded as sane just couldn’t bring themselves fill.
I agree with you, too, but to dismiss what was really an honest strategic criticism about the state of our leadership as liberal whining is not accurate (at least not in his case). We are faced with the dilemma of forces fit and ready to fight and kill Russians, but politicians that are deathly afraid to actually let them off the chain, for fear of their poll numbers falling, and losing the power of the CinC. Bush’s lambasting by the liberal media and subversive organizations like Code Pinko and MoveOn.org have probably scared a lot of politicians off.
Now, dude. Come on. Everybody in the forces knows there’s a running battle between the Navy and the Air Force as to which can be the most liberal branch of the US Armed Forces. Now, if you said you were throwing back a USMC or USA mug, that‘d be different…
Virus-X on August 10, 2008 at 2:20 PM
And then, of course, the Federal Reserve Board had to go ask their dual masters at the GSE’s and China what they thought.
MB4 on August 10, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Pay close attention, people… This is how the dogs of war are loosed. I think this will widen.
Claypigeon on August 10, 2008 at 2:22 PM
C’mon, really now. That’s rich, as though the Bush administration had nothing to do with the timing of its press releases that was in the works to support Georgia because of W’s love affair with new Democracies compounded by Georgia’s loyalty to the USA/GWB when world opinion was contrary to our interests. GW is passing the baton to McCain who stepped up to homeplate with the correct measure of Presidential substance.
That Obama floundered with the fish is what must be perpetuated daily in every conversation.
maverick muse on August 10, 2008 at 2:24 PM
The first and public statement from official Washington has always been a statement for calm, and the notice that the State Department was talking to the parties involved.
It was the same thing that everyone did when Iraq invaded Kuwait. That by the way was George H. W. Bush. It was the same thing that Reagan’s administration did regarding the Sandinista invasion into Honduras. Ronald Reagan didn’t jump on the Television and announce that the Military was on the way in and round up the ponies we’re going to war.
He spent a long time working through the State Department talking to the people who were fighting.
It’s what everyone does. If the cops come across an argument in progress, they try to seperate the two people, and then calm things down to find out what started this, and what happened.
Only in Captain Ed land does the breaking news result in the demand that we issue a strongly worded statement.
OK Ed. Let’s say we play it your way. What happens in real life? We issue the strongly worded denouncement of the event and demand in no uncertain terms that Russia pulls back.
Russia tells us where to stuff it. Then we try and talk to the parties about what started this in order to find out what the hell is going on. Russia again tells us to stuff it, we’ve already taken sides. No we swear we’re neutral and just trying to find a peaceful settlement.
In the meantime Georgia wants to know when we’re moving our troops into the area to help them from this unprovoked attack.
Yeah Ed, that’s a great way to do diplomacy. Where may I ask besides fantasy land does this technique work? Perhaps you should read a book called “The Guns of August.” World War I was the result of ignorance, stupidity, and unrestrained rhetoric in public and diplomatic statements. The Kaiser’s big mouth, the French’s big mouth, the Russians, all of them were running off at the mouth demanding that someone else do this or it could be war.
It was War. A horrible miserable disaster of a war. Some twenty million people died in that war, which could have been avoided, if people would have controlled their damn mouths and stopped rattling the sabers.
The Governments who fought the war in order to keep the populations behind it used propaganda. Often making up reports of horrible atrocities, and there were more than a few real ones, to demonstrate how they were fighting evil and needed the people to stay with the Government.
Strong statements may be appropriate, but only once you know what’s going on, and have tried quieter diplomacy.
Diplomacy is the art of slowing things down and giving the participants time to cool off and think. Good to know McCain isn’t suited for that isn’t it?
Snake307 on August 10, 2008 at 2:25 PM
No, I think, and for more than the last 50 years, that it’s way more like, but hey, it’s just the grunts and the jarheads.
MB4 on August 10, 2008 at 2:26 PM
I don’t think he’s actually trying to pick a fight with us Upinak. That would be stupid and Putin is not stupid. Remember the discussion about brinksmanship last night. This is exactly that or the beginnings of it. Those things you mentioned above are probes orchestrated to test our resolve and guage our reactions and our capabilities and response times. They need this to plan their moves. Putin had a good teacher.
Oldnuke on August 10, 2008 at 2:26 PM
One thing I firmly believe is that in a situation like this Obama would be a disaster. Not only that but unlike Kennedy I don’t think he’d be able to turn it around and salvage the situation.
Oldnuke on August 10, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Thanks for posting that link! Very informative background. This appears to be clearly Russian aggression. From your link about Immediate Response Exercises:
Impecible timing Putin has!
Texas Gal on August 10, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Funky Chicken, Rumsfeld gave great advice for the post Iraq/Afg world. If anything he was wrong about the war in Iraq, numbers-wise. But I think that had more to do with the strategy then anything else. As Cheney said, the provisional was a complete waste of time, and debaathification and disbandment is Crocker’s, don’t lay those mistakes on Rumsfeld.
But it is unlikely in extreme I think that the US population is going to be eager for another nation-building project like Iraq. I think most people want to win, but they don’t want to do it again.
Which means, Rumsfeld’s military will be the military of the future. The ability to get in, strike terror cells, get out, will be of utmost importance. Ironically, we will have a great old school military mind exactly one administration after we can’t use it.
Spirit of 1776 on August 10, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Maybe God is testing Bush as he tested Chamberlain. Wait and see.
MB4 on August 10, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Agreed, sometimes diplomacy is too slow to impact the situation… and it also only works if both sides are open to some negotiation…
Russia was in the drivers seat on this one. They HAD to have been prep’d and ready for this. You don’t just supply and move 2 Brigades at the drop of a hat. It takes planning and logistics to do so. Even pulling out an already existing OP plan takes time, as you have to adjust it to where the enemy is… strengths and such…
That they moved 2 Brigades that quickly? From a Peacetime standing? They HAVE to have been massed and supplied sitting on the border… which is a provocation in and of itself.
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 2:36 PM
True but one thing irks the hell out of me. If Putin was so damn smart, why is he letting the russian military aircraft annoy not just us but other countries? China, Korea, Japan, Serbia, Parts of India and Pakistan.
Makes me wonder if they are trying to be little bees or flies and who is going to swat at them. The U.S. has been by escorting them back… but what about the other countries? Haven’t heard anything on what they have or haven’t been doing.
upinak on August 10, 2008 at 2:38 PM
I’d suggest y’all take some time to read the link that was put up by ganeshpuri89 on August 10, 2008 at 12:30 PM
This appears to be premeditated by Putin.
Texas Gal on August 10, 2008 at 2:39 PM
I dunno, time will tell, but this whole thing kind of seems like it’s have some parallels with the thirties.
MB4 on August 10, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Putin has been premeditating for years, which includes the election of his puppet. Nothing this man does surprises me anymore.
upinak on August 10, 2008 at 2:40 PM
I can’t believe I am agreeing with you on this. But you and I are thinking the same thing.
It has a 30’s feel for sure. But the genocide of the splinters makes me wonder.
upinak on August 10, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Well one of us must obviously be drunk!
MB4 on August 10, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Hmmmm… is this also a messege about the radars of Missle Defense going into Eastern Europe?
Basicly, we can slap you down faster than the US will help you?
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 2:47 PM
nope coffee is about all I am drinking, to sick to want anything else.
But then if we have a nice war.. coffee will either be on a memory or on those damn little ration cards like Germany still has.
upinak on August 10, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Romeo I said this on another thread, but you don’t remember when Ft Greely got defensive missiles here in Alaska and Russian and Putin raised holy hell about them. They stopped grumbling and got ticked out and raised hell about the missiles going into Poland now.
This isn’t including the offensive missiles in Hawaii or on Kodiak Island either.
Makes ya wonder doesn’t it.
upinak on August 10, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Because he’s got to know the same things about any other potential adversaries. This stuff was so common back in the day that we took it for granted. They did it, we did it the Chinese did it (they weren’t very good at it then).
Oldnuke on August 10, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Heh, I said the same thing earlier. May have been in another thread. Deja-vu.
Oldnuke on August 10, 2008 at 2:53 PM
Yeah, sad part is that in some ways they are correct to view us as a threat…
160 countries in the world, and we have troops in somthing like 130… thats a scary stat.
NATO getting closer… and closer… and almost directly on their border… and NATO was founded to combat the Soviet/Russian state…
Huge Military industrial complex… spend more on “defense” than almost the a lot of other countries combined…
Want to put “defensive” systems in countries VERY close to their borders…
And have INVADED two countries in the last few years, including one which sits on their border….
Looking at it from their viewpoint, I’d be concerned too (not agreeing with em, just pointing out how things may look to them..).
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 2:57 PM
FLASH
ITAR-TASS: Russian Navy sinks Georgian missile cruiser in Black Sea after coming under attack.
ganeshpuri89 on August 10, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Well we are all in good company then.
That was the excuse the Kremlin wanted. Immediately, a tank brigade from Russia’s 58th Army (the butchers of Chechnya) crossed the international border into Poland – sorry, I meant Georgia.
- Ralph Peters
MB4 on August 10, 2008 at 3:15 PM
I’m speaking of this particular incident. If you read the articles at that link you will see we had joint military exercises inside Georgia along the border of SO. Russia mounted their own military exercises on the other side of the border with about 8,000 Russian troops.
Russia repaired a railroad leading out of Georgia in the Abkhazia province. Issued Russian passports to the residents. Withdrew the engineers that repaired the railroad. A citizen of that province was accidentally killed by an anti-tank mine.
Our exercises ended July 31 so Putin gives a week for us to get our SF out of there and then all hell breaks loose.
And yes, William it does appear that Georgia has some concerns about a president Obama!
Texas Gal on August 10, 2008 at 3:21 PM
Saw this… its a Missle BOAT, not a cruiser… They’ve only got TWO of em, one Russian built, one French with Exocets…
I highly doubt they were attacking the Russians… probably find out they were either in port, or were trying to defend their own waters… Russia did declare a blockade.
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Thanks ganeshpuri in case anyone is interested.. here is a link:
ITAR-TASS
Texas Gal on August 10, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Why is Georgia attempting a stupid attack like that? One ship against the entire BS russian fleet seems kinda stupid.
Darth Executor on August 10, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Just guessing based on prior experience with the Sovs… but…
Missle boat probably left port and was in its own territorial waters. ROE was to just defend. Russian Navy saw it manuvering, and since their ROE are more open, sunk it. The missle boat in question does not even have any anti missle defenses… once painted (radar) and a decision is made to fire… its toast.
Georgia probably did not understand that this is now not just about one breakaway region, but a war of Regime change… as came out during the UN debate (not stated, but when asked, they did not deny it).
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 3:36 PM
Barack Obama needs to educate the Russians and Georgians on how warfare is incompatible with the “Aloha” spirit.
Mike Honcho on August 10, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Russia will do the same thing they have ALWAYS done: divide and conquer.
The Soviet Union has spent 80 years keeping their neighbors perpetually locked at each other’s throats. They stayed in by keeping everyone too busy fighting each other to unite against their common enemy.
Note that the Ukrain didn’t say they’d deny Russia use of the Harbor unless they withdraw. They said they’d let Russia use the harbor again as soon as “the military action is ’solved’” – I.E., as soon as Russia wins. Sounds more like one puppy yapping for attention than a pack of dogs turning on their former master.
logis on August 10, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Not so scary when you consider that the majority of those troops are marines guarding embassies. My guess is that by that measure something like 100 nations have troops in the US.
Dawnsblood on August 10, 2008 at 3:56 PM
He’s not afraid of any of them.
Numbers have nothing to do with it. Some people are terrified by America’s military power; and some people are comforted by it – and wish to God we had more.
logis on August 10, 2008 at 4:08 PM
You may want to research this a bit… I’m not counting embassy personel.
Heck, until this popped I didn’t even know we had Spec Ops troops in Georgia… not suprised by it, but sure didn’t see it in the news much.
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 4:18 PM
I was really trying to point out how this could appear to a non American…
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 4:19 PM
That is completely nonsensical. Don’t lump (Eastern) Europe in with Europe even thought they’re on the same continent? The continent is called Europe. The people who live on it are called Europeans.
aengus on August 10, 2008 at 4:25 PM
Relax. Nobody gives a rat’s ass whether or not you really hate America.
But, for the love of God, please stop using the word “point;” you desecrate it.
logis on August 10, 2008 at 4:27 PM
If ya don’t like the way I write? Too bad. I’ll answer posts directed at me thank you… don’t need your help.
And please explain, with your great intellect, how in the heck you desecrate a word? Or, by misuse, did you just desecrate… desecrate?
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 4:39 PM
“Strong statements may be appropriate, but only once you know what’s going on, and have tried quieter diplomacy.
Diplomacy is the art of slowing things down and giving the participants time to cool off and think. Good to know McCain isn’t suited for that isn’t it?”
Strong statements backed up by nothing gives the ratbags more time to take ground and kill more people. Of course the Russians would want to talk once they move the goal posts or, more appropriatly, the border a little. Until the next time they want to move the border.
davod on August 10, 2008 at 4:46 PM
Shocking as it may seam, the NY Times is covering this in a timely fashion.
jerrytbg on August 10, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Someone commented in another blog that it is time to sabotage Russia’s energy sources. I do not think the US or NATO should do anything but someone might want to think about doing it.
davod on August 10, 2008 at 5:03 PM
And exactly what are those signals? Hush-Hush negotiations?
It also seems that the wonderful editors here at Hot Air are foregetting who invaded who. South Ossetia declared their independence in 1992 after winning a rebellion against Georgia. Because no Nation within the U.N. has recognized South Ossetia’s independence, that doesn’t mean their independence doesn’t exist. In fact under the U.N. charter for the recognization of new Nations, South Ossetia fits perfectly by the standards outlined in that charter. After all South Ossetia’s are not Russian they’re Ossetian.
I highly doubt the Georgians were really just that dumb to think that going into Tskhinvali was going to be a a walk in the park. For their sake somthing else has to be going on here. Maybe it was the escalating cross-border confrontations with Russian troops, but whatever it was, the only other option is that they were just that dumb.
PresidenToor on August 10, 2008 at 5:32 PM
But, but we have to send the USAF into battle! On somebody’s side, before we even know all the background and details, because there are terrible pictures on TV!
Really, I’ll say it again. It is sad to see folks supposedly of the right, and supposedly veterans act like George Clooney when he called for us to intervene militarily in Darfur. To Clooney’s credit, at least we would only have been starting a war with Sudan.
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 5:52 PM
More likely the Russians orchestrated this …contrary to what the Emperor says.
They were too ready and quick to respond.
Anybody that has any knowledge of logistics in the military sense….
well…this was 101…and it ain’t over yet.
jerrytbg on August 10, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Second time you’ve made that type of comment.. Want to see my F’n DD214? Want pictures of me in Uniform? Want the letters I sent my Mom after the barraks blast in Beirut in 83???
Just a hint here… Romeo13 was my callsign when I was doing Boarding Ops in the Gulf During Desert Storm….
You’re arguing like a Liberal, not condending with the view, but insulting the source.
Bah, done…. your not worth trying to convince, you are way too emotionaly involved in this situation.
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Putin is well aware that our country is divided as a nation and one half will definitely go against our country’s best interest. Putin dealing with Obama is like a pit bull fighting the Easter bunny. Putin was looking for an opening and he got it. The leftwing will use fear and hate to magnify the possibility of a war with Russia to sway the election.
volsense on August 10, 2008 at 6:57 PM
PresidenToor on August 10, 2008 at 5:32 PM –
South Ossetia declared their independence. OK. Who recognized tthem as an independent nation? Just Russia. So, IF they are independent, why did Russia over the past several months issue Russian passports to Ossetians? Minor point. But it goes to the heart of this current situation deeply.
Russia’s policy toward the Caucausus dates back to Tsarist times. Divide and conquer. Nail the upstart immediately to show other potential upstarts the folly of their ways. Not much has changed on that front, even after 70 years of Soviet rule and nearly two decades of new-Russian rule.
Second, thoough not mentioned by you, is what constituted Russian “peacekeepers?” Were they regular Russian Army or UN-sanctioned peacekeepers? Or, were they, as evidence over the past couple years has shown, merely former Russian army dischargees who decided they liked living there and more or less formed their own “peacekeeping” units? Armed bands of military trained thugs are not exactly the sort of “peacekeepers” one gives credence to. We’ve been through that in the former Yugoslavia, Karadjic’s “peacekeepers” come to mind. They kept the peace in Srebernica quite well. They are still exhuming bodies killed by these “peacekeepers.”
Russia had this invasion planeed for at least the past several months. From the logistics side alone, there is ample proof of this. It was not and is not merely a response to Georgia’s sudden crackdown on anyone. It is a pre-planned act of war.
The Russians announced they “had to” go into Ossetia to protect Russian citizens. [Those "independent" Ossetians who somehow held recently-issued Russian passports.] So, in order to “protect” independent Ossetians/Russian citizens they bomb Poti, Tiblisi, and civilian targets all across Georgia.
Medvedev and Putin need some sort of foreign threat right now, as the Russian economy (other than the super-rich oligarchs) are scrabbling to get basic necessities together for yet another tough Russian winter. The gap in incomes in Russian society is sharp and distinct. Most arer living at or below the poverty level, even by former Soviet standards. The Medvedev/Putin government has fallen back on one of the most over used pretexts to get Russian public opinion behind them.
On the Georgian side…that oil pipeline is their lifeblood. Their desire to join NATO obviously has economic implications beyond military implications. The possibility of Georgia joining the EU also has ramifications. Seems more of Europe, other than Ukraine and Latvia, should be voicing all sorts of concerns right now, and taking concrete steps to freeze Russian assets, prevent Russian use of their territories, and soon. They’ll be next, otherwise. Their silence is chilling. Their lack of response is disturbing. They should indeed be asking themselves…who is next?
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 7:12 PM
“That is completely nonsensical. Don’t lump (Eastern) Europe in with Europe even thought they’re on the same continent? The continent is called Europe. The people who live on it are called Europeans.”
(a European writes) Europe is essentially Britain, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Austria, and the little countries such as Luxembourg and Monaco etc. The Eastern nations are theoretically and technically and geographically part of Europe, but really they are an alien concer, “far off countries about which we know little”. The impression I get is that my government doesn’t give a toss about Georgia, and the same is true of France and Germany. It is East.
Apeking on August 10, 2008 at 7:35 PM
Yep, Russia has been interfering for years in their former bloc nations.
Does everyone forget what happened to Yushchenko?
Well, it depends on how this plays out, but I’d say Taiwan, as soon as the Propagana Olympics are over.
I heard the basketball announcer this morning say he got goose bumps when he heard the Chinese fans singing their national anthem with such pride.
reaganaut on August 10, 2008 at 7:39 PM
Progaganda*
reaganaut on August 10, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Roger Simon at pajamasmedia:
The USA can’t run in guns blazing to every global conflict. We simply don’t have the force structure to do it, and our forces are a lot smaller than they were during the Cold War. Sadly, we are still using Bill Clinton’s active duty military in many ways …
Rudy Giuliani was the presidential candidate who actually put a number on the number of active duty troops we need to add to the military. It’s one reason I like him so much–straight up no BS, with numbers even.
I’ll go google to find his exact statement from one of the debates.
The Poles, the Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians, and Ukrainians are right there and have the most experience with Putin and his cronies. It’s best to let them take the diplomatic lead right now.
I remember George Soros was heavily involved in Georgia in the 90s. Could this conflict be related to his actions there way back when? dunno, but it’s likely that this is another reason to not elect his pupil Obama.
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 7:45 PM
Georgia revolt carried mark of Soros
Article Comments MARK MACKINNON
From Wednesday’s Globe and Mail
E-mail
November 26, 2003 at 2:03 AM EDT
Tbilisi — It was back in February that billionaire financier George Soros began laying the brickwork for the toppling of Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze.
That month, funds from his Open Society Institute sent a 31-year-old Tbilisi activist named Giga Bokeria to Serbia to meet with members of the Otpor (Resistance) movement and learn how they used street demonstrations to topple dictator Slobodan Milosevic. Then, in the summer, Mr. Soros’s foundation paid for a return trip to Georgia by Otpor activists, who ran three-day courses teaching more than 1,000 students how to stage a peaceful revolution.
Last weekend, the Liberty Institute that Mr. Bokeria helped found was instrumental in organizing the street protests that eventually forced Mr. Shevardnadze to sign his resignation papers. Mr. Bokeria says it was in Belgrade that he learned the value of seizing and holding the moral high ground, and how to make use of public pressure — tactics that proved so persuasive on the streets of Tbilisi after this month’s tainted parliamentary election.
In Tbilisi, the Otpor link is seen as just one of several instances in which Mr. Soros gave the anti-Shevardnadze movement a considerable nudge: He also funded a popular opposition television station that was crucial in mobilizing support for this week’s “velvet revolution,” and he reportedly gave financial support to a youth group that led the street protests.
He also has a warm relationship with Mr. Shevardnadze’s chief opponent, Mikhail Saakashvili, a New York-educated lawyer who is expected to win the presidency in an election scheduled for Jan. 4. Last year, Mr. Soros personally presented Mr. Saakashvili with the foundation’s Open Society Award.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20031126.wxsoros1126/BNStory/Front/
http://www.osgf.ge/?l=2
Now, if you google soros georgia etc, you will find lots of nutty sites with stuff like “the Jew Soros” and even a LaRouchian thing, all on the front page. Hey, and a Pravda link. Oy vey. Soros is about a Jewish as my dog is muslim, but the loonies are out there.
But I think the Globe and Mail is reputable, and it’s an interesting coincidence anyway.
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Rudy!
http://externalaffairs.citadel.edu/giuliani_commencementaddress07
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 7:58 PM
Rudy, right again:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/02/giuliani-calls-for-troop-surge-in-afghanistan/
January 2, 2008, 2:37 pm
Giuliani Calls for Troop Surge in Afghanistan
gotta love the comments
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 8:02 PM
By the time any real diplomatic solution is even contemplated by the Russians…they will control the greater part of Georgia. At least the parts that are traversable, livable and valuable. We may be seeing the end of Georgia as we knew it…
jerrytbg on August 10, 2008 at 8:17 PM
wow powerline.com is on fire today, and yesterday. if anybody is interested
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 8:35 PM
ugh powerlineblog.com of course
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 8:35 PM
The time for us to have acted is gone and I believe one of the reasons is this. I don’t think the Turks would give us over flight rights. The timing of that
explosionfire is very suspicious at best.The f-15 with conformal fuel tanks, ( if their still using them), has a rather large combat radius with what, 4 extra stations for sparrows. . .The flight time from eastern Iraq to Georgia isn’t any greater than to
Tehran … Ask hubby. We had the capability to pull it off…I think the Turks nixed it.
Hell, they wouldn’t let us stage for Iraq from there. so… don’t worry…
Ah ,to be a fly on a wall somewhere.
jerrytbg on August 10, 2008 at 8:58 PM
The Turks…sigh. My husband has been there and dealt with them many times. They give our guys crap at every opportunity in his experience. He’s never been to Istanbul, but he always kinda does the raised eyebrow whenever he hears somebody waxing rhapsodic about visiting there.
One of our good friends is an A-10 Warthog reservist pilot whose activation orders got cancelled last minute in 2003 when the Turks nixed our going in to Iraq from their territory/airspace. Hey, his wife and kids were really happy anyway.
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Good thing Obama isn’t taking this seriously………
Seven Percent Solution on August 10, 2008 at 9:02 PM
I had that experience with them on numerous TDY’s.
Yes, we’re family…but I’m the crazy uncle in the attic…lol!
jerrytbg on August 10, 2008 at 9:12 PM
Yeah, after further thought, Obama really doesn’t know what we are up against………. he should be an intern.
Seven Percent Solution on August 10, 2008 at 9:13 PM
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4500362.ece
There aren’t the words to convey the anger I am feeling right now…
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 9:27 PM
Yep, one of the BIG problems we had in Iraq was the mistrust of the populace because we TOLD them to rebel during Desert Storm, and then abandoned them to Saddam.
The International community has a long memory, and remembers our betrayal of North Viet Nam, and Iraq, and Lebanon (83)… if we add this to our list, why would any ally trust us?
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 9:36 PM
Romeo13 on August 10, 2008 at 9:36 PM –
Yeah. But have you seen the lineup of the new shows coming up for the Fall TV season? That’s what’s really important. /s/
I’ve worked in some of those “armpit” countries around there world over a couple decades…and when they see us ignore the obvious [such as this blatant pre-planned power and land grab in Georgia] it just makes them all the more easily swayed by whomever is next door with a bigger army, or a tough talking despot. Words. That’s pretty much what this nation is good for anymore. Hence, the anger. Not one move by the treasury to freeze Russian assets here in the US. That’d be the minimum I would have expected. We won’t even do that.
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 9:43 PM
I disagree. Such a war requires that both sides believe they can win. I don’t think Putin believes that the Russian military can win a war against NATO. He’s no Ahmadinejad.
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 9:43 PM
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 9:43 PM —
NATO in 1992, perhaps. NATO in 2008? Totally different. Pretty much neutered.
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 9:47 PM
agreed… we carry ..what, 70% of the load? guess on my part.
jerrytbg on August 10, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Me too. Is this our 21st century Czechoslovakia? I say a swift kick in the yarbles is called for. Paging Code Fink! Cindy Chehan? Berkley corn chunks? Their silence proves that we were right about them. They don’t give a shit about human rights, they just hate America.
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 9:52 PM
We are NATO. Putin would have to be insane.
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 9:57 PM
http://www.georgiaemb.org/DisplayMedia.asp?id=400&from=media
Three years ago, Georgia asked for our assistance. None of this hit the MSM. No surprise there. They were asking for our “good offices” for help, for us to exercise whatever influence we had to help mediate or provide solutions to the Ossetian problem.
Read the announcement by the Georgian Embassy in DC from Oct. 2005. Jump forward to today. Disgraceful.
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 10:02 PM
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 9:57 PM —
We can’t even muster a full combat division in Germany. We have a few skeleton air squadrons, not even whole air wings, attached to NATO. And the Euros, they’ve been steadily cutting back since the early ’90’s.
Russia knows this.
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 10:04 PM
This is very infuriating.
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Here is the latest from the McCain campaign:
So, we have Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Finland, and the US siding with Georgia.
We have Obama waffling and wheedling, and possibly earning a rebuke from some of those “New Europe” folks. And even in Obama’s new and improved, stronger statement he still says the UN can/should/will handle the problem. With Russia on the Security Council.
Help will come for Georgia. It won’t be in the form of a unilateral USAF armada tonight or tomorrow.
And our “New Europe” allies know who is on their side and who is not.
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Quelle surprise…Cuba backs Russia, just like Barry O!
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1030086820080811
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 10:20 PM
True enough but Russia will not risk an all out confrontation with the west. That is if we make it clear that it will be one and what an enormous price they will pay economically as well. If only we had some Teddy Roosevelts instead of Ferris Buellers.
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 10:25 PM
I think this is where McCain wins the election. This is the crucible.
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 10:27 PM
We bought about $8 billion in products from Russia this past year. 28% of it oil and petroleum products. Russia bought about $9 billion in products from us. Cars, nuclear reactors, aircraft and aircraft parts were a promenent share.
Now, IF we had been drilling here…we’d need not buy Russian oil. We could turn off the tap on that $9 billion in exports to Russia as well.
Despite their size, they have an extremely fragile economy. Even if we are talking about such a relatively small dollar figure, the Russians need it. This is where we could/should/can and darn well better, exercise a bit of economic pressure.
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 10:38 PM
I read something about Germany being the arbitrator for an agreement between Georgia and SO for reunification that was recently rejected. So there evidently has been a process underway to resolve their issues.
I agree fc, I see this as an opportunity for the emergence of a New Europe (probably with Merkel and Sarkosy standing with them) that I don’t see Bush missing the opportunity to put together. They won’t have the fire power but they will have the international clout to shut Putin down. I do believe the US Calvary will come to the rescue but it will be strategically planned.
Texas Gal on August 10, 2008 at 10:40 PM
Sarkosy’s office has announced that he has talked to Lavarov (the Russian foreign minister) and Sarkosy is supposed to be in Moscow this week, offering to mediate.
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 10:44 PM
Texas Gal on August 10, 2008 at 10:40 PM
Hopefully Sarko is over his man-crush on The One by now…
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 10:52 PM
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 10:44 PM
Hmmmmm. Russia and France have been closer than France has been to us for several years. Of course a lot of that came from Chirac/DuVillepan/Mitterand. It will be interesting to see which way Sarko breaks on this deal.
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 10:54 PM
And I may have misspelled Dominique’s last name. I’ve never been a fan.
funky chicken on August 10, 2008 at 10:54 PM
Would someone suggest to the Obama campaign that they send Obama over to Ossetia tomorrow so he can show us live and in person how his penchant for wanting to talk to foreign leaders with no preconditions will end all wars, stop all conflicts, and bring on the wonderment of the new day?
coldwarrior on August 10, 2008 at 10:56 PM
I think that was just diplo-speak and my read of Sarkozy’s body language during that presser, he was somewhat pertrubed by the arrogance of Obama.
Texas Gal on August 10, 2008 at 10:59 PM
Mediate? WTF? It’s time to act now. See this is what I mean. People trained in business management are not equipped to handle pressing international crises. When immediate action is required, they schedule several planning sessions. Then meetings to discus and formalize. Then convene group sessions to plan implementation. Then organize the the roll out. Meet to select the team. Meet to schedule the roll out. Then postpone it pending review and further testing. Then cancel the roll out because a new technology has made it redundant. Our Georgian Allies need help NOW!
ronsfi on August 10, 2008 at 11:04 PM
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 Next »