War breaks out in the Caucasus
posted at 11:40 am on August 8, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Russian troops and fighter jets moved into South Ossetia today in response to the Georgian Army’s offensive against Ossetian separatists today. Georgia claims to have shot down two Russian jets, and Russia accused Georgia of a “dirty adventure”. The hostilities broke out after years of tensions between the two nations over a pair of breakaway provinces still in dispute almost 20 years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union:
Georgian troops pushed into the separatist province of South Ossetia Friday, attacking with aircraft, tanks and artillery. The conflict threatens a wider war with Russia, which has peacekeeping troops in the area and began moving reinforcements into the province Friday, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, speaking in Beijing where he is attending the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, said Georgia’s action was a matter of “grave concern and it will certainly lead to retaliatory actions.”
Russian state television showed pictures of a column of tanks and troops that it said was already inside South Ossetia. “Additional reinforcements has been sent to the region to help the peacekeepers prevent bloodshed,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
This conflict was a long time coming, but it started over recent shelling by separatists into Georgia proper. Georgia had announced a unilateral ceasefire in hopes of dialing down the tension in the region. Separatists responded by amplifying the provocation, and Georgia decided to go all out in its response.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili today implored America to become involved in the conflict. Georgia has desired NATO membership, but the alliance has had its reservations chiefly because of this unsettled conflict, but also over anxiety about provoking Russia. Saakashvili told CNN that the new war was “about America, its values”, but most Americans might find it difficult to relate enough to an ethnic and border dispute in the Caucasus to go to war with Russia.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been in limbo since they fought Georgia over their status in the early 90s, with Russian assistance. Georgia has never relinquished its claims of sovereignty over the two provinces, and they have no international recognition of independence or of anything other than Georgian territory. The Russians wanted a UN Security Council resolution demanding an end to the use of force on the part of both the South Ossetians and Georgia, but the US and UK vetoed it — likely as much for retribution over Russian obstructionism on Iran as for support for Georgia.
This war creates even more instability in a region that has served as a crucible for Islamist terrorists and nationalist militias alike. Russia finally pacified Chechnya after years of war, and this violence could threaten the entire region once again. It could also interrupt oil supplies from the Caspian Sea to Europe, which pass through Georgia as well as Ukraine. Russia will also probably cut off natural gas supplies to Georgia in retaliation, forcing Georgia to find alternative energy supplies.
This could get very messy in a very short period of time. If Georgia doesn’t seize South Ossetia outright quickly, then cooler heads need to get involved to push the Russians and Georgians apart.
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The propagandists haven’t disappointed.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 11:42 AM
P.S.
Wow. “You said it”.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Oh, Christ. Look forward to more hostage situations ending very badly with huge casualties.
I think I’d rather live in some areas in the Middle East rather than Ossetia.
MadisonConservative on August 8, 2008 at 11:46 AM
This is long overdue. I don’t think anyone wants to get involve in a shooting war in Georgia, but I hope we can do something to help the Georgians. They’ve been allies for us in the War on Terror, (my brother says the Georgians he met in Iraq were great) and I’d hate to see us abandon them.
Dkshideler on August 8, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Explain.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 11:47 AM
What sort of American involvement is the Georgian president looking for? What leverage to we have with Russia?
Dead Hand Control on August 8, 2008 at 11:48 AM
*do
And I’m asking out of ignorance – I don’t have the slightest grasp on this conflict. Explain it to me like someone is explaining it to Obama right now.
Dead Hand Control on August 8, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Someone should tell Mikheil Saakashvili that we`re a little busy right now.
ThePrez on August 8, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Good questions!
TooTall on August 8, 2008 at 11:53 AM
We have about 150 US military trainers and advisors on the ground in Georgia.
The Russian rationale for their invasion seems awfully familiar…and bogus as well. Sort of a mix of going into the Sudetenland and the phony Polish “assault” that preceded Germany’s invasion of Poland put together.
Have been following this since early morning. The various Russian spokesmen and Russian military officers commenting do not appear to be on the same sheet of music…thus can one actually believe anything coming from Moscow? The “plight” of the Ossetians is a pretext.
I hope the past three years of concentrated US military training of the Georgian armed forces enables them to do some real damage to the consistently poorly trained and led Russian armed forces, thus forcing the Russians to reconsider their ill-timed rumble in Georgia. The cumbersome Russian command structure and doctrinal ossification hasn’t imporved at all since the Soviet days. They are still a Third World country…just have a huge army, an army of dubious loyalties up and down the chain of command, and at the tip of the spear, mostly thugs in uniform.
If Russia had any hope of dealing with Europe, having any credence in Europe, as they have been trying to do for the past many years, this pretty much ends that.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM
LOL
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 11:56 AM
I’m trying to remember what approach Russia uses towards separatists within their borders…
BadgerHawk on August 8, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Go Georgia!
And you all be careful out there.
tree hugging sister on August 8, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Underlying all of this is the stature of the Russian military inside Russia, and the role of the SVR[formelry KGB]. Neither are much liked on the street in Moscow, but both still weild enormous power within the post-Putin government. This invasion of Georgia would seem to be a nod to the Russian military, thus shoring up their loyalties inside the Kremlin.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Such thoughtful analysis coming out of freevillage today.
BadgerHawk on August 8, 2008 at 12:01 PM
From the fox report
I believe the US was heard responding
Rbastid on August 8, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Exactly. Or any country trying to keep a breakaway region. Whether Ossetians are separatists or fighters for independence is determined by a mix of your biases plus your hopefully educated understanding of the situation there.
Personally I think Ossetia should remain a part Georgia, as it is best for everybody including Russia. That being said, Ed’s “analysis” is propaganda and lies. The conflict has been on the burner for tens of years now. “Ossetians shelled Georgia” is the lamest of excuses, one ironically that’s been tried before. Not that Ed would know anything about it.
What’s most ridiculous in Ed’s piece is his approval of (IN HIS WORDS) refusal of the US and UK to call for a cease fire simply because they don’t like Russia’s policy towards Iran. Wow, people will die so that… uhm… who will learn their lesson?
When nutcases like Ed later call for “saving human lives” in one region or another, it’s instructive to remember what value they truly put on them.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 12:06 PM
I question the…. What’s this? Olympics Games? Must… ignore… war… watch… sports…
Seixon on August 8, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Almost perfect analogy. There are Russians in Georgia(S. Ossetia) that Moscow wants to protect or bring back into the fold of the empire. It’s BS and a land grab. Another attempt to bring a piece of the old empire back together…build a new one, whatever.
Then you have a democracy on your southern border trying to join NATO, the european union, and moving crap loads of oil through the country. They are supported by the US polititians, and until just recently (like a week ago) were purchasing US and Isreal weaponry.
Oh, and the lovely paradox to the Russian move here is they support and arm the sepratists in Ossetia.
Oh, and a Democracy full of Christians is not going to be supported in too many circles around the world.
sunny on August 8, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Oh, thank goodness. Atlanta’s safe. It’s the *other* Georgia. Whew!
Grantman on August 8, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Grantman on August 8, 2008 at 12:07 PM –
I have to wonder if there was mass confusion in the Peach State this morning when this story hit the televised news. Have visions of that old Alan Arkin movie “The Russians Are Coming, the Russians Are Coming” being played out all across the state.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 12:10 PM
You’re doing a heck of a job, Condi.
pseudonominus on August 8, 2008 at 12:14 PM
But Putin has a beautiful soul!
carbon_footprint on August 8, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Much better. You’re defending your opinion, and (gulp), I’m sort of agreeing with you.
BadgerHawk on August 8, 2008 at 12:15 PM
This has been a long time coming. From spies, bombs, and hard words, the war is finally here. Hopefully this will end soon.
DanStark on August 8, 2008 at 12:19 PM
No, you are handing out propaganda and lies.
I have read stories and seen photos of Georgian homes hit by rockets coming out of “Ossetia”.
pseudonominus on August 8, 2008 at 12:20 PM
This caught my eye:
Exit Question: Who wants to bet US Military Advisors are working out of this airbase?
TheEJS on August 8, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Doesn’t our very own Freevillage live in Russia?
carbon_footprint on August 8, 2008 at 12:21 PM
What the hell are you going on about? Slant Ed’s words much? Show me anywhere in Ed’s post about that where he shows, as you put it, approval of the US and UK to call for a cease fire.
Ed’s exact words were
He is certainly speculating as to why the US and UK vetoed it, but that’s a far cry from stating his approval of it.
Good greif, get a grip.
Also, you posted
. I think it’s rather classless of you to start name-calling the bloggers on their own site. Disagreement is fine, acting childish really isn’t.
Nineball on August 8, 2008 at 12:22 PM
Our very own freevilllage lives in Boston but he is a Russian native and he’s very interested in Russian politics including his involvement in the Libertarian movement there.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Fair enough. I apologize for that.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 12:24 PM
TheEJS on August 8, 2008 at 12:20 PM –
They are there. It is also the base where Georgian airborne and special operations forces stage out of.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 12:30 PM
some decent analysis from Wretchard
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2008/08/08/trouble-in-the-caucasus/
The Bear is still smarting from the Kosovo breakaway in Bosnia and Western influence on how that turned out.
Has anyone else noticed the unforeseen consequences and domino effect of the breakup of the Soviet Union? Now, the countries which wanted out from under the Soviet thumb are themselves being fractured by cultural, religious, and ethnic interests. That part of the world seems to be reverting back to tribal status if it continues.
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 12:31 PM
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 12:31 PM –
Just finished reading Gorbachev’s Perestroika and finishing up reading Yeltsin’s The Struggle for Russia. Read them years aog, thought a new reading would be enlightening, looking at the current state of affairs in Russia.
You are not all that far off the mark. 70 years of conquest and forced subordination, and the disintegration of the privleged apparatchik and nomenclatura classes in Russia has had devastating effects on current Russia. These classes have now become the revanchists the former Communists used to decry at every opportunity. Add to that the neo-nationalists, and this attack on Georgia makes more sense…they need a strawman to rouse the slumber of the people of Russia.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 12:39 PM
My area of Russian expertise is wholly on the other side of that country, so the Caucauses are not my cup of tea. I’d rather we stay out of this right now – this is something that’s been going on for years.
Never will understand why we say Georgia instead of Gruzya. It’s not that hard to pronounce, really.
Anna on August 8, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Why did you come to the U.S. freevillage?
So you can persecute Christians, insult people and be a nuisance in general?
Why not take your Christian persecuting,atheist butt back to russia where you belong? I’m sure your comrades could use your help in the war on georgia.
SaintOlaf on August 8, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Human nature is the same all over. I find it interesting that Georgia doesn’t want to relinquish territorial rights to South Ossetia now, when they felt the opposite about their right to sovereignty when they originally broke off the USSR. It never ends. Now the smaller countries are themselves becoming smaller and each parent country doesn’t want to allow it. There is no simple answer but I do know the potential for world conflict escalates with each split, particularly when one throws Islam and oil into the mix.
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 12:55 PM
They can have Georgia, but if the Rooskies touch Florida Bush had better do something.
Akzed on August 8, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Hey Mr. Barak JFK Obama.
You just got back from Berlin showing that you are a Cold War hawk 20 years after the war ended.
Are you ready to be all JFK and stick with the Georgians?
RobCon on August 8, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Given that the ruble and the Moscow stock markets are in a tumble since the announcement of the Georgian invasion, seems that the capitalists in Russia aren’t all that sanguine with Medvedev and Putin’s latest exercise in flexing Russian muscle.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 12:59 PM
I don’t see any conection with Kosovo to be honest. Sure some politicians in Russia don’t like the fact that they “lost” there. We’ll see if the West truly “won” though. But more importantly, it’s not like Russia has decided to retaliate by biting off a random piece of other country’s territory.
I would say there are two things that need to be understood about what’s going in the former USSR. People there universally didn’t like Communism. That much is clear. What is not clear and what is absolutely false to assume is that they always liked the substitute in the form of nationalism. The problem with nationalism is that you need a homogeneous nation. Which a lot of those Republics aren’t. So when Ossetians are invited to celebrate the revival of Georgian national identity, many of them go: uhm, what does it have to do with us?
80% of South Ossetia residents are Russian citizens. Are they all Russian nationalists? No. It’s much more beneficial to hold a Russian passport because you can travel to Russia, which is much larger and much better off economically. What Georgia should have done years ago is lay off their nationalistic rhetoric and say something like: look, we aren’t gonna let parts of the country chip away. That’s not an option. But let’s work out a reasonable way forward which would include close economic ties with Russia, them being by far the biggest player in the region.
Here’s the ironic part. Ask every moron in this thread who “supports” Georgia and is in favor of being “tough” with Russia and ask them how many Georgian products they have bought… uhm… EVER. I have. I have done so recently. The fact is that I have helped the Georgian economy more than 99% of local “Georgian allies”. Why? Well, firstly most of self-proclaimed hawks here are primarily into “pass me another hamburger — I’m so in the middle of an existential struggle, I’ll need a nap later on” kind of wars, wars that require no effort on their part.
But secondly and more importantly, geography is a bitch. Small countries in the vicinity of Russia do deserve and should fight for their political independence. But there will never be economic independence from Russia. They need to abandon this war mentality and behave like businessmen who hold their own but are perfectly willing to happy to negotiate and generally be friends. I don’t see it happening in Georgia, I don’t see it in Ukraine either. So far the stupidity of the leadership of these countries matches quite well the idiocy of Russian foreign policy.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 12:59 PM
*yawn* bite me.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:00 PM
Well now I can’t ever visit the homeland.
Caucasia
Dr Evil on August 8, 2008 at 1:03 PM
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 12:55 PM –
The former Soviet Union was comprised of over 250 identifiable nationalities. Georgia’s change of heart, if you will, regarding not now wishing Ossetia becoming independent has a lot to do with the numerous non-Georgian nationalities living in Georgia. Even if most Ossetians hold Russian citizenship, they are not all Ossetians. If Georgia allows the Osettians to break away, then significant portions of Georgia may do the same, as will significant portions of Ossetia, and any numnber of other nations and autonomous regions. This would certainly have a ripple effect all over the Caucausus, a very dangerous ripple effect at that. Dozens and dozens of fiefdoms, kingdoms, splinter “republics” suddenly emerging all over the region.
Pluralistic democracies, such as our own, seem to work better in the long run, affording generational homogeneity time to dilute the ethnic and religious sharp distinctions, such as we have in the Caucausus, and in the Balkans, and in the Near East.
BTW – ALL Georgian troops in Iraq have been recalled back to Tblisi.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 1:08 PM
I wrote a long response to you. It doesn’t go through. I have no idea what’s happening. Maybe it’s been considered spam and waits for an approval. We’ll see.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:09 PM
You will note that no European country has the Malkins to lift a finger to help this small 88% Christian country.
The euros value is dropping FN cowards..
TheSitRep on August 8, 2008 at 1:13 PM
So far, I haven’t heard of many Iraqi schools being taken over with hundreds of children inside them and explosives rigged everywhere. The viciousness of the likes of Shamil Basayev makes even douchebags like Zawahiri seem like amateurs.
MadisonConservative on August 8, 2008 at 1:14 PM
I don’t see any conection with Kosovo to be honest. Sure some politicians in Russia don’t like the fact that they “lost” there. We’ll see if the West truly “won” though. But more importantly, it’s not like Russia has decided to retaliate by biting off a random piece of other country’s territory.
I would say there are two things that need to be understood about what’s going in the former USSR. People there universally didn’t like Communism. That much is clear. What is not clear and what is absolutely false to assume is that they always liked the substitute in the form of nationalism. The problem with nationalism is that you need a homogeneous nation. Which a lot of those Republics aren’t. So when Ossetians are invited to celebrate the revival of Georgian national identity, many of them go: uhm, what does it have to do with us?
80% of South Ossetia residents are Russian citizens. Are they all Russian nationalists? No. It’s much more beneficial to hold a Russian passport because you can travel to Russia, which is much larger and much better off economically. What Georgia should have done years ago is lay off their nationalistic rhetoric and say something like: look, we aren’t gonna let parts of the country chip away. That’s not an option. But let’s work out a reasonable way forward which would include close economic ties with Russia, them being by far the biggest player in the region.
Here’s the ironic part. Ask every moron in this thread who “supports” Georgia and is in favor of being “tough” with Russia and ask them how many Georgian products they have bought… uhm… EVER. I have. I have done so recently. The fact is that I have helped the Georgian economy more than 99% of local “Georgian allies”. Why? Well, firstly most of self-proclaimed hawks here are primarily into “pass me another hamburger — I’m so in the middle of an existential struggle, I’ll need a nap later on” kind of wars, wars that require no effort on their part.
But secondly and more importantly, geography is a b*tch. Small countries in the vicinity of Russia do deserve and should fight for their political independence. But there will never be economic independence from Russia. They need to abandon this war mentality and behave like businessmen who hold their own but are perfectly willing to happy to negotiate and generally be friends. I don’t see it happening in Georgia, I don’t see it in Ukraine either. So far the stupidity of the leadership of these countries matches quite well the idiocy of Russian foreign policy.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:14 PM
So there’s a Georgia-Mart up there in the People’s Republic of Massechusetts? Otherwise, I’ve seen nil for Georgian products, or know where to find them.
MadisonConservative on August 8, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Belmont Club has a good post and comments on this issue.
exhelodrvr on August 8, 2008 at 1:20 PM
Yes, I understand that and in fact it reinforces my point. However, the desire of groups to become ever smaller and less heterogenous doesn’t seem to go away over there. I guess, in a way, we are seeing the same type thing here with special interest groups becoming louder, more aggressive, and more uncompromising. It is worrisome.
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 1:20 PM
Hmmm…so you are involved in the libertarian movement in Russia, but instantly drop all such ideology when it comes to supporting “Mother Russia” when it goes about bullying small neighbors and crushing freedom.
Curious.
pseudonominus on August 8, 2008 at 1:20 PM
And what in your educated estimation is the dominant religion of the Ossetians?
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Posting something twice doesn’t make it any more or less true. It’s just annoying and self-aggrandizing.
MadisonConservative on August 8, 2008 at 1:21 PM
LOL.
Hopeless.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:22 PM
They were given those papers to prepare an alibi for Russian
agression.
pseudonominus on August 8, 2008 at 1:22 PM
It didn’t go through. And there was no message saying what was going on. I apologize but I wasn’t sure if I should have waited or tried again.
At any case, the admins can delete one comment.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:24 PM
OK. :)
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Ha ha, I don’t know but if they are Muslim, I say let the Russians whack’em.
Enlighten me.
TheSitRep on August 8, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Thanks. I’m inclined to agree with you,..for the first time ever.:)
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 1:27 PM
I think it’s the beginning of a beautiful awakening for you. Keep reading my posts. There’s hope (and change).
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:28 PM
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:14 PM –
It is my understanding that less than 4% of what Georgia exports arrives in the United States, tea and wine being products that are more frequently seen in American specialty shops or high-end stores. Great wines, by the way.
But, with such a low threshold in America economic impact, it certainly makes Georgia very very low on the list of “important” nations here in America.
In context of larger issues, not just Georgia herself, I think a good case can be made for the Russians to stop, now, today, and rethink their policies in the region, policies that will have debilitating effects on Russia’s standing in Europe and certainly here in the US if they chose to ignore demands to stop.
One would hope that those around Medvedev and Putin have more common sense than what they are demonstrating…but, then, again, they wouldn’t be around Medvedev nor Putin if they held more rational views.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Okay, seriously…I’ve never seen a more conceited post than this on HotAir. Please tell me that was glib.
MadisonConservative on August 8, 2008 at 1:31 PM
From one socialist state to another.
Johan Klaus on August 8, 2008 at 1:31 PM
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 1:20 PM –
Worrisome? If it doesn’t keep us awake at night, then we are not paying attention.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 1:32 PM
I’ll be happy to read them if you’ll stop your incessant baiting. Otherwise, no. It does get old and detracts from your sensible offerings..
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 1:35 PM
But, do you condemn communism?
Johan Klaus on August 8, 2008 at 1:36 PM
If you want to know how this affects us directly, here’s how:
Georgia calls back troops from Iraq amid fighting
TBILISI, Georgia – Georgia’s president says the country is calling home its troops from Iraq amid heavy fighting in the breakaway province of South Ossetia.
Georgia has 2,000 troops serving with the coalition forces in Iraq, making it the third-largest contributor after the United States and Britain.
BohicaTwentyTwo on August 8, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Let’s send Michelle Obama to ask each side how this helps Michelle’s children.
And Code Pink can go over and picket.
Problem solved.
NoDonkey on August 8, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Barak speak.
Johan Klaus on August 8, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Elaborate on this. What SPECIFICALLY did Russia lose by engaging in this conflict, for instance? Like, what good for Russia was destined to happen in the observable future yesterday, which isn’t now to happen any time soon?
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Well, I can’t recall a time when I tried to bait, and there’s certainly no offerings. This is just a board, it’s not like our opinions affect public policy.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Does Russia have sovereignty over Georgia.
Johan Klaus on August 8, 2008 at 1:41 PM
I have no way of verifying but the news is reporting that the United States advisers left the base a few days ago.
TooTall on August 8, 2008 at 1:42 PM
What’s this? A random question hour?
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:43 PM
You’ve got to be effing kidding me.
Law of the Jungle, eh?
pseudonominus on August 8, 2008 at 1:45 PM
So this is just a board, but don’t you dare ask questions about the topic at hand.
Riiiight.
MadisonConservative on August 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Well I feel saver with Bush in charge then if BHO would be. just another reminder that the world is a dangerous place for onthejob training
unseen on August 8, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Morning everybody. Welcome to the game “Let’s see who knows s^%$&t about what’s going in South Ossetia?” First question:
- What kinda flag is that below the Russian one? And how come Russian troops have these weird letters on their helmet?
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:49 PM
The McCain campaign has weighed in unambiguously.
Bugler on August 8, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Their Christian…just like Georgia.
sunny on August 8, 2008 at 1:50 PM
It would appear that the BEar has come out of its hibernation. thanks in large part to the dems energy plan, russia has become a major player in the energy field increasing it’s wealth and using that wealth to increase its power. russia has over its history always had a expansionist streak.
Now they have the wealth again to see it happen. Add in the nuclear weapons and the BEAR is again a problem.
Thanks dems! I was so missing living under MAD.
unseen on August 8, 2008 at 1:51 PM
First, the tumble of the ruble in Moscow and the selling going on at the Moscow stock exchanges. Russia needs foreign investment. Badly. This war is not gonig to encourage that sort of thing, especially.
Russia has been trying to put on a nice face re Europe and the industrialized countries of South and East Asia [other than China] and this sort of action takes the smile off that face for many who still remember the Soviet Union.
Russia has been trying to exercise control over her former states regarding NATO membership, and this action today is not the sort of thing to demonstrate that Russia is benign in her desire to not have former Soviet-states join NATO.
This action may bring to the fore the distinctions among Russians regarding nationalism a la Zhironovski, or Medvedev and Putin’s attempts to establish Russia as a super-power again. Each has its own perils. Zhirinovski’s appeals to Russian nationalism can be accepted to a grewt degree by many in Russia without a thought to a prponderant nomenclatura and apparatchik ruling class. But, Medvedev and Putin, both are products of that nomenclatura and apparatchik class….and still have arranged around them many many hold-overs from the former Communist regime. There is not a lot of love in Moscow for either…and certainly no desire to be pulled through the backdoor to that sort of regime that ruled Russia and the other republics for 70 years.
Lastly, given the effect of the Afghan War on the population at the time [though not so much on the military leadership of the time], and the ongoing effects of the long long war in Chechnya, how are Russians on the street viewing yet another war, one that promises all the wonderful side effects of both Afghanistan and Chechnya had the average Russian on the street?
I’m just ruminating, freevillage, just thinking out loud.
Russia showing Eurrope that Russia today is still the Soviet Union with just a simple name change, surely isn’t going to buy them allies in the West?
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 1:52 PM
You obviously have some perspective many of us don’t and it has some value. If you contually present it in an adversarial manner you lose credibility and present as a troll just making mischief, so there is a knee jerk response and the discussion becomes one of insult exchange. It serves no purpose when you could have a more receptive audience for someone like yourself. I know you understand what I’m saying. Why not try being a little less confrontational and more people will take what you say seriously, rather than blow you off?
a capella on August 8, 2008 at 1:52 PM
That never went away.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Well, what’s the right thing to do here? I’m not sure. And if you don’t think Russian intransigence has caused and has the potential to lead to many more deaths than the Georgian situation could do, you can’t been paying attention.
Anyway, it just goes to show that amoral nations don’t mind the hypocrisy that comes with supporting separatists fighting their neighbors and fighting the separatists in their own territory. Not that they’re precisely the same types of fighters, but I’d be curious what arguments the Russians can come up with why one type is good and the other is bad.
calbear on August 8, 2008 at 1:54 PM
kthnxbye
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:55 PM
Taken from Malor’s link at AoSHQ:
.
Take what you want from the air raid by the Russians. Historically they’ve been… inept, to put it nicely (Helsinki comes to mind where they bombed the Soviet delegation within the city to kick off the Winter War). While they may not be effective, it was probably done to make a political point to the US.
Does anyone know Georgian mobilization plans? Seeing how they’ve recalled some of their best troops (those taking part in OIF), just curious to see if they take take the next step.
TheEJS on August 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Every word of it true. The ethnic geography of the region, and (let’s face it) of a fair chunk of southern Russia, isn’t a can of worms — it’s a 55-gallon drum. There are all sorts of countries in the FSU that have (or until recently had) lots of ethnic Russians. Whether they were there with the permission of the locals is a complicated question, since a lot of internal Soviet migration wasn’t the voluntary kind.
I don’t think we were seeing a nationalist/chauvinist streak in our friend freevillage. He just realizes that suffering and bloodshed are an attracting state in situations like this, and everyone involved should cool off and talk.
DrSteve on August 8, 2008 at 1:58 PM
That requires a detailed response. I need to get out now. Look for it later in the discussion.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:59 PM
The Russians have an attitude, lots of oil too; they’d be much better allies than the old milksops in the EU. Do you think they’d be interested in teaming up with the US if we recognized the former territories of the Soviet Union as their turf? It’s not as though we ‘re giving up anything that we have the means to hold on to.
dhimwit on August 8, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Well based on the geography South Ossetia and Abkhazia would make an effective buffer zone for Russia if what is left of Georgia sovereignty manages to join Nato. Russian paranoia at its best to be sure. Its amazing the number of conflicting reports in the West about who fired first, but I doubt that really matters now. It will be interesting to see if the next few hours/days of fighting see the Georgian military do some serious damage to the Russians or if they themselves get kicked.
Question: If the Georgian airforce really did take down 2-4 Russian aircraft, that would emply Russia does not have complete air superiority and as such why didn’t Georgia take out the Riko tunnel? I would think some degree of forced non-confrontation would be better for Georgians than not.
Blacksoda on August 8, 2008 at 2:01 PM
That never went away.
freevillage on August 8, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Yeah it did. Read up on the stand down of nuclear missiles after the fall of the soviet union. The attempt to destroy missles in the old soviet union and the people that blocked it be lack of funding. Also look at the timeline of the new Russiain power push. It started at the same time the USA got bogged down in Iraq thanks to the antiwar protesters. The rise of the antiwar movement in this country can be traced point for point to the rise of Russia. The KGB is a live and well in this country. Answer, moveon.org, hollywood all have deep ties to comunism and Putin was the high in the old KGB.
unseen on August 8, 2008 at 2:07 PM
But secondly and more importantly, geography is a bitch. Small countries in the vicinity of Russia do deserve and should fight for their political independence. But there will never be economic independence from Russia. They need to abandon this war mentality and behave like businessmen who hold their own but are perfectly willing to happy to negotiate and generally be friends.
?News FLASH somethings are more important than money. Like a little thing called freedom. We in this country use to understand that until the CEO’s sold national soveignity for a buck and a half. Nationalism while dead or dying in the USa is very much alive in China, Russia, India and other places. They will pratice merchantilism for the benifet of thier nation and we will sell thme the means to do so. Marx it appears was right on this point.
unseen on August 8, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Every major antiwar organization/celebrity a product of the KGB? Brilliant.
Blacksoda on August 8, 2008 at 2:13 PM
I hope the past three years of concentrated US military training of the Georgian armed forces enables them to do some real damage to the consistently poorly trained and led Russian armed forces, thus forcing the Russians to reconsider their ill-timed rumble in Georgia. The cumbersome Russian command structure and doctrinal ossification hasn’t imporved at all since the Soviet days.
coldwarrior on August 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM
The Soviet military has generally been a cumbersome yet heavy blunt instrument that can do lots of damage and it should never be underestimated if I’m reading your post correctly. I hope this ends quickly if only to keep the civilian casualties down because as we saw in Chechnya, the Russians don’t even pretend to try to be precise with their military force.
Yakko77 on August 8, 2008 at 2:33 PM
crap, forgot to add the quote text but I think it’s still readable.
Yakko77 on August 8, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Wait one, I’m AGREEING with freevillage? Someone check for a planetary alignment!
All joking aside, good analysis on your part. Regardless of root causes, it’s an ugly situation. I just hope it doesn’t have the same result of ANOTHER ugly little situation in a tiny, economically dependant country in a geographically inhospitable land about a hundred years ago…
Militant Bibliophile on August 8, 2008 at 2:39 PM
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