Zogby: Obama’s summer swoon
posted at 10:25 am on August 5, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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John Zogby usually has good news for Democrats, but not so for Barack Obama. According to his latest polling, conducted last week, Obama has not just lost his overall lead but has lost ground in core demographics he cannot afford to lose. Obama lost ground among women, young voters, and 26 points among Catholics:
Barack Obama has lost ground among some of his strongest bases of support, including young people, women, Democrats and independents, according to a new ATV/Zogby poll.
The Illinois Democrat has also lost some support among African-Americans and Hispanics, where his lead over Republican John McCain has shrunk, and among Catholics, where he’s lost his lead.
In other words, he’s fallen back across a broad front of the electorate. Most dangerously, he lost a combined total of 36 points in the 18-29 demographic. He still leads by 11 points, but young voters had been the second-most loyal base of his energy — a dangerous base under any circumstances, and one proving to be just that in 2008. McCain pulled within five points of Obama among women, and now leads Obama among Catholics by 15 points after having trailed by 11 earlier.
Zogby also says that Obama lost ground in the Latino and African-American community. Maybe McCain’s appearances at the NAACP and the Urban League had an impact. McClatchy doesn’t give the numbers, and I’d suspect that the movement was small, but that’s still significant. If Obama loses much ground in either or both demographic, he’s toast.
What happened? Zogby blames it on the European Tour. While Obama got adulant coverage from the American media, McCain punctured holes in his self-inflated balloon, and it has had an effect. He has made Obama look inexperienced and unready, and against all odds, voters actually paid attention.
This, of course, is August, and the general election is a long way off. However, these trends look very troubling not just for Obama but for the entire Democratic Party. It looks like both have run out of gas in this electoral cycle, and that may not just be a metaphor. If the Democrats and Obama offer nothing but populist platitudes and obstructionism on developing American oil production — and American jobs — this summer swoon may only get worse in November.
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He’s lost support among African Americans, Hispanics, Whites, Independents, young people, and Catholics. Other than that he’s doing fine!
amerpundit on August 5, 2008 at 10:28 AM
The real fun part is that the 30 and younger crowd won’t turn out and vote! They NEVER DO!!!
sabbott on August 5, 2008 at 10:28 AM
Keep talking Obambi.
fogw on August 5, 2008 at 10:29 AM
Obama’s big problems have been his gaffes. When he was running against GaffeTastic Hillary, his gaffes weren’t as bad, so they weren’t as noticeable. Now, with McCain being very careful about what he says, Obama is an audience of one, and now people are paying attention.
I think McCain’s energy ad had a big impact as well. Obama’s response has been horribly weak, and his ad is amatuerish at best.
But all this can change once the conventions roll out, and then the debates hit.
Nethicus on August 5, 2008 at 10:33 AM
More importantly, keep talking off script. I love it when he gives his version of townhall meetings. They’re gaffe-tastic!
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 5, 2008 at 10:33 AM
The 08 makeoverfest of Obama as the image of JFK.
I fully support Obama in the mold of “Ask Not What the Government Can Do For You” JFK.
But we all know Obama and his team only copy the vaneer of JFK, the essence is completely lacking.
Sir Napsalot on August 5, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Nancy Pelosi isn’t helping Obama’s cause with her ridiculous refusal to permit a vote on drilling. Her arrogance reminds people that Obama has similar characteristics. Like John Dean was the Republican Party’s friend in ‘04, Pelosi mouth is serving the same purpose this go around. The show, “Last Comic Standing” has nothing on the Dem Party.
Syd B. on August 5, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Don’t worry. The Messiah will get his bump after the convention. The love-fest will continue and he’ll return to darling status. It will drop, precipitously, when we get to the debates (and if the House Republicans keep up their fight!).
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 5, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Catholics found out clownbag here supported allowing infants who survive a botched abortion, to suffer and die of exposure.
Being pro-choice is at least arguable. This is not.
Typical far left politician, who has been led about by the nose his entire career.
His speeches mean nothing. He is owned by lunatic groups such as NARAL ann MoveOn.org.
NoDonkey on August 5, 2008 at 10:35 AM
I think that when the analyses are done after John McCain is elected, the European Tour will be identified as the “Moment” the Obama candidacy started to falter and decline. Grandiose stagecraft is for the movies, or Superbowl halftimes, or the upcoming Olympics. It is not what pragmatic, everyday Americans want in their President.
RushBaby on August 5, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Yes. I never understood the adulation of his ‘eloquence’.
As a lawyer, he is practiced in the art of delivery. Give him a summation, or a carefully crafted political speech, and he is in his element. Once that insulating layer is stripped away, he is immediately revealed as being spectacularly clumsy and inarticulate.
A very shabby specimen.
LimeyGeek on August 5, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Are you saying he’s a Tom?
Naughty. Naughty!!!!
SlimyBill on August 5, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Just on the white, liberal, Democrat plantation.
Now let him just eat his waffle.
NoDonkey on August 5, 2008 at 10:43 AM
How funny would it be if Mile High stadium (or whatever it’s called this week) is empty when he gives his acceptance speech?
crazy_legs on August 5, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Very succinctly and nicely put. I think after his defeat in November, he should seek a nice cushy, prominent professorship back at Harvard. I think he’s temperamentally more suited for academia than for politics. It would be a better showcase for his style than politics as well.
As a politician, he’s just “brought”. As a professor, he could really bring change.
RushBaby on August 5, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Couldn’t agree more.
The European Tour was Obama’s Mission Accomplished moment.
fogw on August 5, 2008 at 10:46 AM
I watched the most popular worldwide catholic news show, The World Over last night and they slammed president Ubama big time for half the show…probably by today they will find out that president ubama’s catholic support is at right around 0%..besides the few phony abortionist catholics like teddy kennedy etc.
SaintOlaf on August 5, 2008 at 10:46 AM
If you don’t count suits, it will be.
Syd B. on August 5, 2008 at 10:47 AM
This is catastrophic.
Obama the empty suit is losing Olbermann’s KEY demographic group! You know, the one he barely beats O’Reilly in…?
After all that coddling Keith does and it’s going to waste. Is he hoping to land a Tony Snow position?
originalpechanga on August 5, 2008 at 10:47 AM
I’d blame Kirsten Powers. . . has she ever supported a winner? But really, I’m going to say it’s the energy issue. African Americans are struggling at the pump too. When Obama to say ‘inflate your tires’ when we all know we can get more oil if Congress allows it, most people (african americans included) get pretty mad.
ThackerAgency on August 5, 2008 at 10:48 AM
I hope Obama has some really long coattails–and he drags the Democratic Congress out of power in November.
backwoods conservative on August 5, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Another very underplayed element is the virtual disappearance of President Bush from the scene. Obama’s Hopenchange shtick works best when he has the foil of the unpopular Bush to play off. Bush hasn’t given it to him.
Obama’s foil now is John McCain and he is not measuring up. The voters are getting a good chance to test both of these men as potential Presidents. They see John McCain being a humble, straight-talking guy going face to face with voters in small town hall meetings, facing hecklers, answering critics, standing up to a hugely biased media establishment, and offering serious proposals to respond to voters’ concerns about high gas prices. Then they see Barack Obama jetting off to Europe in a tricked out 747, pulling out a faux Presidential seal, talking a bunch of platitudes to a crowd of Germans while dissing our troops, and telling people to inflate their tires to save gas.
Barack Obama is simply an unserious man in a very serious time.
rockmom on August 5, 2008 at 10:49 AM
The Emperor has no clothes.
TooTall on August 5, 2008 at 10:50 AM
I also think his $1000 voter bribe proposal, taken from “big oil” profits is being seen for what it is, complete with the taxpayer being tagged down the line with higher prices to make up the cost to the oil industry. Since that just started recently, the impact on voting patterns probably hsn’t maxed yet. That is a point McCain needs to hammer.
a capella on August 5, 2008 at 10:50 AM
That, and perhaps most of the African-Americans are beginning to realize that Obama has more in common with the liberal white elite than he does with them.
carbon_footprint on August 5, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Fantastic analysis.
carbon_footprint on August 5, 2008 at 10:51 AM
I still don’t understand what the Obama camp thought that Tour was going to accomplish. Having Obama pose in the doorway of No. 10 Downing Street, or get his photo taken next to Sarkozy and Merkel was supposed to give Obama “foreign policy credentials”? Only a grade-schooler would believe that staging silly photo ops with world leaders somehow qualifies Obama to be a world leader himself — and grade-schoolers can’t vote.
And what was the point of having Obama give his “citizen of the world” speech to a bunch of screaming Germans? The only American voters that was likely to impress were the same Susan Sarandon/Sean Penn-type lefty crowd that’s already in Obama’s pocket anyway. Every other voter was sure to be turned off.
Maybe there was some brilliant strategy that mis-fired, but I still don’t see it.
AZCoyote on August 5, 2008 at 10:52 AM
This is most certainly not helping Michelle Obama’s Children.
Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!!!
Winebabe on August 5, 2008 at 10:53 AM
I’ll go out on a limb and predict Obama will never get most of those people back. Obama started out as a cipher with New Age pretensions — he was something “above” a pedestrian politician. Since nobody knew much about him, everyone could fill in the gaps with what they wanted most in a candidate. It also didn’t hurt that he’s black, giving anxuious white voters a chance to demonstrate their racial good faith and open-mindedness by supporting him.
Obama’s problem is that now he’s filled in those gaps with the truth. And it isn’t pretty. Turns out that instead of a New Age messiah, Obama is uninformed, fatuous, stupendously arrogant, and he has remarkably poor judgment in choosing his associates. He clearly regards “the World” as a more important audience than provincial Americans — mostly monolingual “bitter clingers.” Add to that a paper-thin resume and an undeniably wrong opinion on the handling of the war in Iraq, and suddenly there are not many gaps left to fill in with something attractive.
The mass mocvement away from Obama is because people have gotten to know the real Obama. The real Obama is not likely to change much between now and the election, so those who have left his camp are unlikely to ever return. And it’s only going to get worse as more voters start paying attention as the election gets closer.
A year from now, we’ll all be wondering how we ever took Obama to be so formidable.
Cicero43 on August 5, 2008 at 10:54 AM
I wouldn’t be surprised if the DNC puts on a free show (or something of equal crowd-drawing power) before the speech. I haven’t seen anything in the local news about that, but seeing what he did in Germany (free concert/free brats) and in (Virginia? free Decemberists concert), that kind of stunt is just screaming to be pulled again…
jwehman on August 5, 2008 at 10:54 AM
I’m a “young person.” I have quite a few friends who are McCain supporters. Once colleges start up again, you’ll see us out more in force. The Republicans do need to start targeting us better though–they always seem to assume all under-30 people vote Democrat. I’ve been polled 4, count ‘em 4, times by the Democratic Party of Virginia in the past month and asked to help with Democratic campaigns, but I’ve never gotten a phone call from the Republicans. We young people want to help–remember that!!
Yossarian on August 5, 2008 at 10:55 AM
As most are. What’s the best way to expose a charlatan? Take away his script.
The best lawyers are the ones who can speak well and think of their feet. Seems like Obama has the first one down, and is still working on the second. And, like most lawyers out there, he also has the personality flaw of being an egocentric ‘I’m better than you – yeah, you – hang on, sweetie, I’ll get to you in a moment’
superior attitude who condescends to other people. You know the type. They are smug, and they like to abuse their power.
And there is a way to go after these sorts of people too.
wise_man on August 5, 2008 at 11:00 AM
I registered to vote the day I turned 18 and have voted every election since then
offroadaz on August 5, 2008 at 11:09 AM
It’s funny how the ‘heads’ on msnbc can’t figure out why Obama’s tire inflation remarks have resonated with Americans. Jonathan Alter observed that the GOP is ‘Carterizing” Obama, and that Carter had a serious and wide ranging energy plan back in the 70’s. I didn’t realize that msnbc had changed it’s format from farce to comedy.
DrW on August 5, 2008 at 11:11 AM
Gas prices aside, people understand how many jobs will be created once drilling is given the green light.
The Dhimmicrats have hooked onto a losing horse.
davidk on August 5, 2008 at 11:14 AM
I doubt the dems could do that. They are already $10Million in the whole on the convention. They are trying to have a big production, that they will not have anything left to run against McCain in the fall
ConservativePartyNow on August 5, 2008 at 11:15 AM
With his views on abortion being what they are I can’t believe Catholics or Evangelicals would ever want him in office. They were probably will to overlook the abortion thing when they thought he was perfection. Now that the cracks and warts are starting to show, time to abandon ship.
UnEasyRider on August 5, 2008 at 11:15 AM
I meant
They are already $10Million in the
wholehole on the conventionConservativePartyNow on August 5, 2008 at 11:16 AM
Right now we’d have to say his formidable veneer exists because he’s set records raising money and the media doubles as the Twelve Disciples. Money and media, what more can a modern politician hope for?
JonPrichard on August 5, 2008 at 11:20 AM
I just wonder if Obama is going to look like a serious enough liability that the super delegates will jump ship and nominate Hillary.
Highwayman on August 5, 2008 at 11:20 AM
McCain must nail Obama on the drilling issue as fast and as hard as he possibly can, before Obama has time to weasel further out of the Pelosi position.
By spotlighting Obama’s eventual reversal drilling, McCain could expect to disillusion and de-energize further Obama’s radical base.
petefrt on August 5, 2008 at 11:24 AM
McCain … now leads Obama among Catholics by 15 points …
This only shows that Catholics are RAAAAAACIST!
Tony737 on August 5, 2008 at 11:24 AM
I guess the “hopeium” effects are wearing off.
Claypigeon on August 5, 2008 at 11:53 AM
rockmom, you rock!
Right_of_Attila on August 5, 2008 at 11:55 AM
What?! But Doug Kmiec was going to lead the parochial and benighted Catholics into a new enlightenment!
What.Happened?!
Jaibones on August 5, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Rock solid.
Jaibones on August 5, 2008 at 11:57 AM
In the Wizard of Oz, the scarecrow hoped for a brain and was afraid of fire. It seems he had to settle for a Harvard degree, instead.
Right_of_Attila on August 5, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Pelosi = Lemming
Whoever decided Obama should do Europe before he did the convention deserves thanks. The convention was needed to create Obama. Now they have to do re-create Obama.
Obama Does Europe – The Movie
Tonight on the Humor Channel
Carterizing can only be self inflicted by the self absorbed
As I recall Carter couldn’t either
Gas trumps all
Don’t feed my paranoia.
The original choice of a black radical, islamic raised, national anthem and flag eschewing, Rev. Wright loving Candidate was so bizarre I periodically sense it was staged to re position Hillary as a moderate with mainstream American voters. It is still so unreal I cannot shake the intuition the super delegates were set up to make a ’surprise’ bolt for Hillary at the convention, by which time voters will be grateful for the (bait and) switch.
Bill Clinton’s anger at and rejection by the Obammies has a Sister Souljah quality.
The clinker in this paranoid fantasy is the reality that the DEM machine cannot reject a black candidate once he/she has been showcased
DEM machine = Lemming
entagor on August 5, 2008 at 12:26 PM
The ego trip across Europe was a major blunder. The exact demographic Obama lost huge to Hillary- white working class- is going to look at that stupid spectacle with disgust. The polls don’t lie when it comes to overall trend.
My favorite poll- Obama is losing ground in Florida after spending $5 million there to McCain’s $0
Chuck Schick on August 5, 2008 at 12:30 PM
You can’t hide an empty suit forever. Obama will go down as the most arrogant and naive candidate to ever run for the presidency. He stands for nothing at the same time he stands for everything. By the way, where is Michelle?
volsense on August 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Trust me when I tell you that most lawyers who don’t spend much time in a Courtroom have a difficult time remembering their name much less making a cogent argument I don’t recall BO having any courtroom experience so his experience at presenting speeches is purely political – and most likely learned by watching Rev. Wright.
HawaiiLwyr on August 5, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Besides all of the secret bags Obamination is carrying, his main problem has been, foot in mouth disease. He’s race baited, lied, and changed positions so many times, that one can’t keep count.
ALL of that Middle Eastern Arab money, and he still can’t get his foot out his mouth!
byteshredder on August 5, 2008 at 1:16 PM
This is all very interesting, but remember, this is John ZOgby we’re talking about here. He’s been wrong in the past.
However, the recent trends in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls show similar movement, so maybe it is for real.
Gee, I sound like Jean-Claude Kerri!
Del Dolemonte on August 5, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Is he planning on having a rock concert as a warm up act again?
MarkTheGreat on August 5, 2008 at 1:25 PM
“Is he planning on having a rock concert as a warm up act again?”
Yes, as the headline act for this flash in the pan, one-hit wonder whose act is already getting old.
NoDonkey on August 5, 2008 at 2:15 PM
The Dems could easily fill up the stadium with a huge, rompin’ rock concert in Denver – regardless of being in debt. Springsteen would just do it for free in order to get the Messiah elected!!! In keeping with the Dem convention green theme, there will be, however, no free beer and bratwurst, only Evian and arugula.
marybel on August 5, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Thank God I wasn`t drinking aything when I read that. Or else I`d be cleaning it off the screen.
ThePrez on August 5, 2008 at 4:04 PM
Told you…all along I prayed that we would face Obamamessiah. Billary would have been impossible. Now for the most fun lets hope that the Democrats nominate Hillary because they have figured out that Messiah is toast. The Black vote will evaporate and we might get the Senate back…weeee this is a fun election cycle.
PierreLegrand on August 5, 2008 at 5:22 PM
Wow, he’s dropping faster than Bill’s pants…
Kevin71 on August 5, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Then get out and volunteer. Remember, WE are the ones WE have been waiting for…
Kevin71 on August 5, 2008 at 8:34 PM
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