The obligatory “McCain leads Obama for the first time” post
posted at 11:40 am on August 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Let’s cherish these moments while we can.
A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters…
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends).
McCain got out in front of him on drilling and now Obama’s playing catch-up, so the numbers on energy are easily explained. But what about that amazing sudden shift among unaffiliateds? Barnett floats a self-sabotage theory, that the Berlin speech was so underwhelming and anticlimactic as to spark an “emperor’s new clothes” backlash among centrists. That’s wonderful if true, since his alleged rhetorical brilliance is the miracle most frequently cited as evidence of the Messiah’s political divinity, but I don’t buy it. For one thing, it doesn’t jibe with the fact that 55% thought the speech was good or excellent and only 18% thought it was poor; for another thing, the Berlin speech was already a few days old last week when McCain and Obama were dead even among affiliateds. A delayed reaction this pronounced seems unlikely.
It has to be the ads. Like Barnett says, the election is essentially Obama versus Not Obama. It’s hard to pump Not Obama up but not that hard to deflate Obama, especially if the lion’s share of unaffiliateds are centrist conservatives disaffected with the GOP and taking a hard look at the Democrat. For more on that, see Nate Silver’s op-ed today about the electorate’s leftward shift, producing a “median voter” this year who’s more receptive than usual to a true-blue liberal but held in place for the time being by the appeal of McCain’s own centrist maverick-iness. The strategy behind the ads, I take it, is first to demystify Obama by making him faintly ridiculous and then (hopefully) to take David Freddoso’s advice and frame him as a politics-as-usual machine Democrat considerably further left than even that new left-ish median voter. (If you’re wondering how Obama plans to counter, guess.) Makes sense, except … a 15-point swing, from dead even to 52/37, thanks to nothing more than a couple of goofs comparing him to Paris Hilton and Charlton Heston in “The Ten Commandments”? I just don’t buy it. Maybe that dishonest “troops” ad had more effect than anyone thought.
As always, alternate theories are welcome. Exit question data: The same Rasmussen poll puts the electoral college at Obama 273, McCain 227. Gulp.
Update: Headlines comments imported.
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dare we hope???
homesickamerican on August 4, 2008 at 9:34 AM
Nope.
lorien1973 on August 4, 2008 at 9:35 AM
well, i am “keeping hope alive”, because it’s the only option for me…
i have been abroad for 12 years and am finally moving back to the US next month. i don’t wanna have to leave again if mccain loses!
homesickamerican on August 4, 2008 at 9:39 AM
Sounds like it’s time to start giving away $1,000.00 to everyone.
Marcus on August 4, 2008 at 9:41 AM
I have been saying to friends for weeks that “Obama does not wear well”.
The more of him you see and hear - the less you are impressed.
Hillary had this figured out - only too late.
jake-the-goose on August 4, 2008 at 9:41 AM
I really have no use for polls, but it is fun to watch the lefty bloggers freak out when a poll comes out with McCain gaining on Obama or running even with Obama (or ahead). They, as usual, claim conspiracies or ‘only republicans polled’ or the ever retarded ‘nobody called me’.
They are already beginning to build up in their mind that they will have been cheated if somehow McCain pulls this off.
I hope McCain wins just so I can watch the lefties in this country go all ape-sh*t in November (and years to come).
cntrlfrk on August 4, 2008 at 9:45 AM
Turd or vomit- you make the call.
Valiant on August 4, 2008 at 9:45 AM
That’s based on states where he currently leads. He’s fallen 9 points in the last week and is going down in crucial swing states.
Not everything is disastrous.
amerpundit on August 4, 2008 at 9:48 AM
LOL. He runs those ads promising a “$1000 tax credit paid for by Big Oil”. Guy thinks he fu*king Robin Hood or something.
malan89 on August 4, 2008 at 9:49 AM
I thought the choice was “Turd Sandwich or Giant Douche”…
Swinehound on August 4, 2008 at 9:50 AM
True sign that America is Racist to the core, well, at least the “White” folks are.
After Juan Williams piece I was going to write something about when McCain gets his first lead, what will happen. I guess now the racist attack dogs will be out in full force.
WoosterOh on August 4, 2008 at 10:00 AM
The trend continues …
Tony737 on August 4, 2008 at 10:04 AM
This socialist douche is going down. He’s afraid to appear on the podium with McCain and someone besides leftist journalists asking the questions.
But that will end in the debates. He’s going down.
Jaibones on August 4, 2008 at 10:06 AM
Rasmussen is obviously racist for pointing this out. Obama finds this, ahem, troubling.
fourstringfuror on August 4, 2008 at 10:09 AM
Hope and Change
If McCain starts to look envitable, some conservatives will start listening to Barr in ‘protest’ and could tip it back.
jp on August 4, 2008 at 10:15 AM
Can McCain keep from exploding into a huge lead before the Dems get a chance to nominate Obama?
Keep your fingers crossed.
Dusty on August 4, 2008 at 10:20 AM
The Dims still don’t have any real choice; it’s either nominate Obama, or face a party meltdown.
If we’re really lucky, and Obama is down in the polls at convention time, we might get to see both at once!
NeighborhoodCatLady on August 4, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Choice of “turd or vomit” as the poster above asserts, is easily solved with a vote for golden nugget Bob Barr.
ericdondero on August 4, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Regardless, these poll numbers are very good news for downticket Republican candidates for Congress, particularly those running in marginal seats.
ericdondero on August 4, 2008 at 10:35 AM
So if McCain wins the popular vote, but loses in the electoral college - can we all get “not my president” bumper stickers?
kc8ukw on August 4, 2008 at 10:38 AM
barr’s foreign policy/national security stance is myopic given realities. part of his big problem, could appeal to Paleo’s though.
jp on August 4, 2008 at 10:39 AM
god, i hope so!
homesickamerican on August 4, 2008 at 10:39 AM
What an awesome idea guys! Bob Barr!!! He’s a much better outlet for us all after Ron Paul’s nomination was stolen by Captain Amnesty! I’m with you!/
wise_man on August 4, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Polls are racist!
koolbrease on August 4, 2008 at 10:44 AM
… some conservatives will start listening to Barr … - J.P.
What if Mac chooses Barr as his running mate?
Tony737 on August 4, 2008 at 10:52 AM
I notice Her Majesty has requested her name not be placed for nomination at the convention. Her newly found shyness means they will have to beg her if it comes to that. Smart move. She keeps her skirts clean and exacts revenge at the same time if the planets align right in Denver. Good times ahead, especially when it is her best interest for Barry to lose to McCain this cycle.
a capella on August 4, 2008 at 10:55 AM
Anybody but McCain or Barry O. The choices include Barr and Baldwin.
Valiant on August 4, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Barr is too good an American to accept the VP slot from McTraitor! He knows what he has to do, and he’s doing it quite well. Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root will win this november!/
wise_man on August 4, 2008 at 10:59 AM
Got to get stronger glasses! Almost missed your sarc tag. :)
OldEnglish on August 4, 2008 at 11:15 AM
Shouldn’t that be Obama does not DRILL wells?
Dr. Charles G. Waugh on August 4, 2008 at 11:18 AM
On the flip side, if Obama starts to look like a lost cause, some liberals will start looking at McKinney and the Greens in protest, and could tip it back.
MarkTheGreat on August 4, 2008 at 11:47 AM
No matter which one wins, I’ll be spending all my time fighting their liberal policies.
Valiant on August 4, 2008 at 11:48 AM
I wonder what Hillary’s thinking right now.
Cicero43 on August 4, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Wrong - Anyone who votes for Barr in this election is anything but conservative.
NoDonkey on August 4, 2008 at 11:49 AM
A few months ago who would have thought we’d be giddy as school girls over McCain getting ahead in the polls?
It feels like we’re going into a marriage with a spouse who’s got issues.
On the other hand it will be so nice to go against McCain and his lame ideas once he’s elected president, considering the unthinkable alternative.
Mojave Mark on August 4, 2008 at 11:51 AM
I forgot this jackass is Barr’s running mate!
He’s got a stone-cold lock on the VP slot! All his picks are free this weekend if you just call 1-800-IMASHAM
Anyone voting for Barr in this election should have their right to vote revoked, as they are clearly mentally incompetent.
NoDonkey on August 4, 2008 at 11:51 AM
The press cannot keep ignoring the fact that Obama has absolutely no record whatsoever (well, he directed state funds to several failed housing programs), is pumped-up with self-regard, is basically an orthodox lefty, has no ‘base’ other than liberals, African-Americans and journalists, and has already flip-flopped on about six major issues - with probably more to come (I await his ‘developing’ energy plan, which could more accurately be described as copying McCain’s offshore drilling proposals).
Obama cannot win - don’t underestimate the common sense shown by ordinary Americans (by ordinary I mean not sad losers like us who follow this stuff year-round).
Martin on August 4, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I don’t think so.
tgillian on August 4, 2008 at 11:52 AM
The come back “GAL”, I don’t care if she requested that her name not be put in… Think about the super D’s…this is giving her all kinds of ammo for Denver… scary thought!!
jerrytbg on August 4, 2008 at 11:54 AM
WOW.
Dave Rywall on August 4, 2008 at 11:55 AM
not disagreeing so much, BUT there is a certain percentage that can fool themselves into this. Remember, the Paultard got away with re-writing GOP and Conservative history to be something it never has been. Murray Rothbard branded Anarcho-Capitalism and Isolationism, err…’non intervenionism”….and the GOP had ‘left its roots’ and he would take us back to “old conservatism”. He got away with it, some bought it. He got away with lying about so much, from Robert Taft’s records, the Constitution and the Founders history……and much of his more radical Libertarian views he learned to hide behind “State’s Rights” which appeals to Conservatives naturally.
jp on August 4, 2008 at 11:55 AM
I think Obama is his own worst enemy, when you just keep shoveling crap, people start to realize, its just crap.
Look at who he has, to hang around with, Daschle, Biden, Axlerod?
Their not doing him any favors in the just crap dept.
Speakup on August 4, 2008 at 11:55 AM
This is not a new counter. It’s been Obama’s counter for almost everything so far. The Dems have been trying to linking McCain to Bush all year. If that’s going to be Obama’s counter punch till November, he might want to try mixing in something else in there. At some point people are going to ask for something more.
terryannonline on August 4, 2008 at 11:57 AM
That’s why it’s so important to confront those who claim that the “conservative” thing to do this fall is to, in effect, place Barack Obama in the White House, along with a large Democrat majority.
All for the demonstrably incompetent Barr’s vanity. He renounced everything he did as a Congressmen, and now he’s encouraging efforts that would result in Obama’s election. Just reprehensible.
NoDonkey on August 4, 2008 at 12:00 PM
I thnk we can start writing the obituaries for Hope and Change now. Obama’s only chance to turn this around is to quickly become Mr. Generic Democrat and go populist. We’re already seeing the beginnings of it with the $1000 giveaway plan. It will be cemented with an inside-the-beltway pick for VP, either Bayh or Biden.
rockmom on August 4, 2008 at 12:03 PM
I believe it is Obama fatigue, with people just getting sick of hearing about the supposed political messiah day after day. McCain isn’t as much winning as Obama is losing ground with the populace. If this trend continues, and Obama’s share plummets, be sure to except him to announce his VP and go on a “Change for America” tour showcasing the “new leadership.” It’s only a matter of time.
DanStark on August 4, 2008 at 12:05 PM
Oh c’mon, you’re smarter than that. It’s not the “same Rasmussen poll.” Rasmussen’s electoral college estimate (”balance of power calculation”) is based on state polls and much other data, some of months old or entirely backward-looking in other respects.
CK MacLeod on August 4, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Oh, this isn’t a momentary blissful occurrence…It’s the shape of things to come. Still sayin’, the Obama campaign is on the road to self-destruction. By November, McCain should be sitting pretty with a comfortable lead.
JetBoy on August 4, 2008 at 12:07 PM
This is better for McCain too, Rasmussen had McCain with much bigger hurdles then this. With more states coming back into play everyday McCain only needs a few states to completely shift the balance of power.
Rbastid on August 4, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Agreed. And it’s the “undecideds” that have been heavily leaning towards McCain. But give the Maverick’s campaign some credit…even I’m pleasantly surprised at the effectiveness of it.
JetBoy on August 4, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Exactly. When you think about it the big fight between Hillary v. Obama was for nothing. They both try to keep their feet in both sides of the position. They aren’t very different.
terryannonline on August 4, 2008 at 12:11 PM
MadisonConservative on August 4, 2008 at 12:12 PM
I fully agree. I think a lot of conservatives were waiting for Golden Boy to run out of steam. He’s a lightweight, folks. There’s nothing to fear from an empty suit. Just watch the ship sink.
MadisonConservative on August 4, 2008 at 12:13 PM
I don’t have so much an alternate theory as much an addition to what has been said. Most Americans haven’t been paying that much attention but some of what has been going on has to have seeped into their subconscious. The picture of all the people with their hands over their hearts and Obama standing there like a refusenik, some of Michelle’s nasty remarks as well as her whining from Hyde Park about those mean student loans, Jeremiah Wright’s hate for America, and a few other things are sitting there just waiting to be reawakened by the refusal to visit the troops or the out of body experience of a presidential candidate taking his full campaign to Berlin. Americans don’t like that kind of thing and it just brings up all the other bad memories.
snaggletoothie on August 4, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Eh. That’s meaningless until October. I still expect McCain to take Pennsylvania. That “guns and Bibles” crank the Prophet Barack made in San Francisco will come back to haunt him.
irishspy on August 4, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Obama is going to win. It’s almost a sure thing. The historical and economic factors matter more than the polls.
Now please - please - somebody prove me wrong.
Because I really don’t know if I can handle a President Obama.
Professor Blather on August 4, 2008 at 12:19 PM
I don’t like it when Obama is a bit behind. It w/b better if he’d be slightly ahead, right into Nov. 04, 2008.
This morning Bill Handel (who was for the war, until he was against it, and who voted for Bush, until he was against him, and who’s got the tingles in his crotch for Obama, no matter what he says) blared about “McCain lost two of his biggest doners, Mr. and Mrs. Hilton, and grampa Hilton”, for featuring their little slut in his ad.
Oh, the agony! I said to myself “Good, sane people will see it for what it is”. It would also be good if McCain focused more on what he’ll do, versus who/what Obama is or isn’t.
Entelechy on August 4, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Watching a lot of motor racing has taught me to wait until the last lap - is over.
OldEnglish on August 4, 2008 at 12:23 PM
What do you think of his willingness to seat the Mich. And Fl. Delegates is about ?
Much to do about nothing? What if he plummets so badly the Dems. Have no choice but to….
The unthinkable….
jerrytbg on August 4, 2008 at 12:25 PM
AP mentioned energy, surely a factor, ads also a factor..
But, unaffiliated voters are the ones where the foreign policy is really going to register specifically Iraq. It has taken some time imho but the iraq success is starting to register with these unaffiliated voters who are most likely to hold a position on the issue that is malleable. Obama defined himself on Iraq, now all of a sudden Iraq is not a quagmire, it is a success. That is damaging imho way more than any ad. His position on the surge was from the outside looking in so absurd at to be twilight zonish, his adamant stand on the issue further made him look mentally incompetent to lead, a stubborn fool is the words I’d use.
Also, Iran. Omaba was defined on his stance for wacky condition-less dialog with dictators, now the Bush camp (State dept really) has extended long feelers, waffled itself on this issue toward Obama’s position and no offense - but the US has been ridiculed by Iran in response. Not only has the waffle not achieved anything, it has made things look worse. I think these two FP issues which Obama chose to define himself on have come up totally flat for him, where as they make McCain look rather experienced, pretty wise.
saus on August 4, 2008 at 12:26 PM
He’s eliminated Hillary in the public eye, as far as he’s concerned. He figures he has little to lose, and a lot of party loyalty to gain by including them.
He shouldn’t be so sure. It’s still possible…
MadisonConservative on August 4, 2008 at 12:27 PM
sorry about mistypes above, I’m on the phone lol
saus on August 4, 2008 at 12:27 PM
This is all great, but alot can happen between now and November.
The only lead I want McCain to have is in the electoral count on election night.
BacaDog on August 4, 2008 at 12:42 PM
and down right scarey…
jerrytbg on August 4, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Now look at what you have don Allah. He is probably pissing on the carpet too.
/sarc
brtex on August 4, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Why scary? I’d far rather have a shot at Hillary being the opponent rather than Obama.
MadisonConservative on August 4, 2008 at 1:05 PM
I remember once reading something about the winning candidate being the “one people would be most comfortable having a beer with.”
In this case, neither….but at least I can visualize McCain having a beer, whereas Obama seems more the type to sip white wine (or to do a little blow, perhaps).
I think his effete snob-ism will be his ultimate undoing, even more than his race or ideology.
Priscilla on August 4, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Not only does McCain’s ad show the emptiness of mere celebrity when it comes to leadership, it hits two real policies. Drilling and raising taxes.
I think Obama’s refusal to ever admit error makes him look risky. He was not wrong on the surger?! He was not wrong about six party talks on Korea versus one on one talks without preconditions that he advocates?! He was not wrong on negotiating without preconditions with Amedinajad?! He was not wrong on drilling?!
Also when he does have to walk back something because it turned out wrong, he does not concede that he had previously taken another position. When he says “As I have always said” you can be sure he is going to have a new position you never heard before.
Haven’t the liberals been screaming that Bush will never admit he was wrong and take responsibility for his mistakes. Surely people who listened to them, must see Obama with exactly that flaw — in spades. (Note Mr. Gergen, this is not a code word. It is a playing card reference in common English idiomatic usage.)
KW64 on August 4, 2008 at 1:26 PM
“I don’t like it when Obama is a bit behind. It w/b better if he’d be slightly ahead, right into Nov. 04, 2008.”
If Obama starts to look like a loser it will be good, because then the desperation will settle in.
Democrats are unhinged lunatics largely as it is, just wait until they believe that their third straight crappy candidate is going to blow the third Presidential campaign in a row.
From the crow’s nest of the HMS Obama - “Iceberg, dead ahead!”
NoDonkey on August 4, 2008 at 1:27 PM
NoDonkey, understood - I also think that it can make the other side lethargic and cocky. I’d rather have my scenario, much as I understand yours. Keep in mind, though, in desperation a snake does strange things.
Entelechy on August 4, 2008 at 1:32 PM
Sorry, Prof., but I can’t prove you wrong.
All I have to offer is my belief that this election will hinge on what happens between now and November with energy prices, and thus the economy, coupled with events overseas in Iraq and the Afghani/Pakistani theater.
Now that some of the “new” has worn off of Obama, some folks are coming back down to earth and realizing that Obama is just another politician, albeit one with some dangerous ideas. So far, he has been his own worst enemy.
All is not lost.
hillbillyjim on August 4, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Allahpundit,
your missing the point. The reason the polls moved is TRUST. It is not the ads. over the last several weeks starting with the campign financing filp and going all the way to today’s partial flip on offshore oil drilling BHO has shown his word can not be trusted. No one believes a word politicians say anyomore. BHO supports THOUGHT that in BO they finally had someone while they might not agree with they could at least count on him following through with his statements. BHO has shown he is nothing but a politician in fact he may be more a politician than any we have every seen. His flips have made Bill Clinton look like George Washington.
Americian were and are prepared to make major changes if the leader is a person they can trust on a fundemental level. BHO has shown he can not be trusted. and those the centerists have moved towards McCain.
the ads just confirm their views that BHO is a crafty politician whoose followers are dumb mind numb cult worshipers.
unseen on August 4, 2008 at 1:37 PM
“I also think that it can make the other side lethargic and cocky.”
They are that way naturally, don’t you agree?
I also think that the closer this race is, the less conservatives are going to want to hear the “Let’s vote 3rd Party!” or “let’s lose another election because we don’t have our ideal candidate”, kind of talk.
That it’s possible to deny Pelosi/Reid a rubber stamp President and that it’s possible to see Democrats wail and gnash their teeth in the street, post-election day, will be a great motivational factor for all real conservatives.
NoDonkey on August 4, 2008 at 1:55 PM
From the start I have wanted the Obama vs McCain matchup…what would be perfect now would be if the Dems startto panic and nominate Billary. Weeeee man would the Dems go crazy. Twould be fun to watch. Almost as much fun will be watching the hallucinations of the Dems after their man Obamamessiah LOSES. Yikes the conspiracy theories will be flying fast and furious.Cannot wait!
We should all be thankful that Obama ran this cycle…we could not have beaten Hillary.
Bring on the Obamamessiah….down the list of fun things is watching the right panic about losing to a Marxist.
PierreLegrand on August 4, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Um… you can wait until the election and see who wins? This is a very testable question, and doesn’t require anyone to “prove” anything.
DaveS on August 4, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Imagine, all of the Islamofascist, Middle Eastern donated millions aren’t helping this creep one iota. I wonder how many dead Arab Obamaciples will be casting absentee ballots …Chicago style?
byteshredder on August 4, 2008 at 3:08 PM
The sky is falling…
Obamamessiah…peaked waaaaay too soon. He is going down…course I predicted he would go down when they first began running up the idea that he was inevitable. A black liberation/marxist winning the Presidency…only if every bad thing the left has ever said about the American Public is true. Its not.
PierreLegrand on August 4, 2008 at 3:22 PM
Allah:
You said that 55% said Obama’s speech was excellent to good. But that is the 55% that actually listened to the man. I think more and more people are bored with his Majesty.
Just plain freaking bored.
Terrye on August 4, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Which Baldwin?
Alec’s looking a bit pasty lately, I wouldn’t go with him.
Rosmerta on August 4, 2008 at 6:40 PM
And Drudge has been headlining Hurricane Edouard all day…
Can you jump a shark in a tank?
silverfox on August 4, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Yeah, losing those particular donors publicly means McCain probably picked up a few thousand votes in middle America.
Kevin71 on August 4, 2008 at 9:42 PM
My theory is that we have two hot issues this time: energy independence and the WOT, and they are connected, and America knows they are connected.
It is critical to be specific on these issues and to acknowledge their connection. Obama is giving us warmed over Jimmy Carter pablum.
PattyJ on August 4, 2008 at 10:40 PM