US: Pakistani intelligence behind attack on Indian embassy
posted at 8:00 am on August 1, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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This story should stir the pot between the Pakistanis and the Indians. According to American intelligence services, the July bombing of India’s embassy in Afghanistan was masterminded by the ISI, Pakistan’s own intel service which many suspect of aiding radical Islamist terrorists in the FATA. The attacks killed 54 people, and the news puts more pressure on the Gilani government to take action against its own spy service:
The conclusion was based on intercepted communications between Pakistani intelligence officers and militants who carried out the attack, the officials said, providing the clearest evidence to date that Pakistani intelligence officers are actively undermining American efforts to combat militants in the region.
The American officials also said there was new information showing that members of the Pakistani intelligence service were increasingly providing militants with details about the American campaign against them, in some cases allowing militants to avoid American missile strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas.
Concerns about the role played by Pakistani intelligence not only has strained relations between the United States and Pakistan, a longtime ally, but also has fanned tensions between Pakistan and its archrival, India. Within days of the bombings, Indian officials accused the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, of helping to orchestrate the attack in Kabul, which killed 54, including an Indian defense attaché.
Earlier reports had acknowledged that the CIA went to Pakistan last month to complain about the ISI and its support of terrorists. The New York Times gets more detail now on exactly what the US delegation told Islamabad. Not only did they produce evidence of the ISI leadership in the Kabul attack, but they also informed Pakistan that the ISI was leaking details of planned American attacks to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Moreover, these are apparently not the actions of a renegade group within the ISI. The Islamist assistance comes from the top levels of the organization. This development was taken seriously enough that President Bush chose to personally address it with Prime Minister Gilani during his visit to the US this week, demanding to know who is in charge at the ISI.
India has already enough reason to be unhappy with Pakistan without this information coming to light. Renewed fighting this week in Kashmir stemmed from skirmishes with the same insurgents who attack Afghanistan on the other border. India believes that the Islamists have grown strong enough in the region to fight a two-front guerilla war, and with ISI backing, that certainly makes sense.
If Pakistan cannot control the ISI, the US and India may have little choice but to fight a border war in areas where the Gilani government refuses to establish its sovereignty. Islamabad may not like it, but the coordination between the US and Pakistan will likely have to end for these kinds of strikes in order to protect operational security. Either the Gilani government has to start taking its responsibilities seriously and bring the FATA and the ISI under control, or they will have to suffer the consequences.
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Interesting.
So, if Pakistan has lost control of its’ equivalent of what, the CIA, the DOD? my next question is what access the ISI has to the nukes?
One conclusion I disagree with, Captain, is that a border war may become necessary. Getting into a shooting war with Pakistan seems like a Bad Idea.
Wouldn’t just parking a bunch of troops on the borders to the tribal areas with specific orders to do nothing cause the Pakis to do the same thing - and perhaps having enough of the Paki army in the tribal areas would help enough….
Mew
acat on August 1, 2008 at 8:06 AM
Even though this all sounds probable, I have a hard time believing much of anything the CIA says now.
rhombus on August 1, 2008 at 8:16 AM
Ed, not really. Look in India it’s common knowledge, and except for our secular liberal establishment no one has really illusions about the pathology of land of pure. But the problem remains same, for present the consensus in India is we can not fight a war with Pakistan owing to nukes. Pakistani establishment knows this, and hence it will continue with terrorism against India.
It is somewhat similar to attack on Don Vito Corleone, Don knew it was Barzini, however the situation remained such that no retribution was possible. When it came it was swift.
Trust me, when it comes for Pakistan, it will be same.
But there was never any control on ISI in the way US or India has over its apparatus. I have said this many times here but will repeat, but in Pakistan it is military establishment, which includes which is the ultimate authority over state. To find an answer it is important to gain knowledge about power struggle between diff power centers viz. Military, Bureaucracy, Landed aristocracy, Tribal and Religious authority.
Gaurav on August 1, 2008 at 8:18 AM
Do you have any idea how big that boarder is?
we need to add the ISI to the list of terrorist groups… just like the Revolutionary Guard is to Iran…
BadBrad on August 1, 2008 at 8:22 AM
with us, or against us .
trailortrash on August 1, 2008 at 8:39 AM
Well, how many American and Afghani troops do you imagine it would take to patrol 1400 miles of Pakistan-Afghanistan border, most of which is Himilayan mountains, above 5,000 ft in the air. Imagine running a 10 mile race in Denver….every day, and you’ll have an idea how the US military would have to perform. How many folks would it take to cover that border? We do such a bang up job here on the Southwest border of the US with lots of local police and border patrol, and many sympathetic US ranchers, that hundreds of thousands of illegals cross it every year.
Plus, how is the Pakistani Army going to fight its way into these places to secure the border. They aren’t omnipotent and they would be fighting their own tribes in most cases. That’s sure to go over well, ain’t it? It seems most of the border police belong to the local tribes anyway.
Let’s all just snap our fingers, place hundreds of thousands of troops on the borders and wait for bin Hidin and his donkey to show up. Meanwhile our guys “do nothing”, including training, lose their edge, waste our money, and pretty much feel they aren’t contributing much to the general welfare of the country.
This is time for targeted strikes, covert missions, and money thrown at the tribes to convince them that TVs and new cars will show up when they get rid of Wahhabiism. The target needs to be the madrassa. Remove the indoctrination and let time change their views. A lot of time. I don’t know how you get rid of Wahhabiism without showing the people the difference between life under radical Islam, and life under something more moderate. That’s gonna require some hard times (beheadings, killings, bombings, rapes, etc….) from the terrorists (which they invariably do when threatened) and for the local populace before they get the general idea. Right now they all think they have to support the Taliban to get to Heaven. Unless you show them that living a good life is what gets them to Heaven, they will always choose to kill, rape, pillage, plunder, and burn to get there.
Until we are ready to keep up the pressure on Pakistani tribal society for a long time (years), moderation ain’t gonna happen. Lots of their tribesmen need to die when opposing us, and be enriched when they help us. And that’s gonna take time that Americans just ain’t willing to spend without a WMD attack as the motivator. Until we are really hurt again, the status quo is the best we can expect.
Subsunk
Subsunk on August 1, 2008 at 8:54 AM
Hence the attack on the Pakistani Embassy in Afghanistan. Red herring.
OldEnglish on August 1, 2008 at 8:57 AM
Thanks for your info. Yes we know the military controls the state. But what kind of connection, if any, does ISI have over Pakistan’s nukes?
JiangxiDad on August 1, 2008 at 8:58 AM
Really bad situation. I don’t know what kind of access the ISI has to the national nuclear arsenal, but if they’re anything like the KGB, they’ve got, pretty much, exclusive access. India can’t be laughing this off, and I hope they’ve got an awful lot of lotion, because those nuclear trigger-fingers must be getting awfully itchy. An intelligence agency that’s rife with islamofascists and their sympathizers is a very dangerous thing, and I think it’s time we start targeting more individuals with Hellfire missiles.
Virus-X on August 1, 2008 at 9:00 AM
It may be time to let slip the Special Forces and the CIA against the ISA.
Bring in the Indian Intelligence service and make an example of the leadership of the ISI. A few Hellfire missiles from the new Reapers, a couple of well placed rifle shots, and I suspect the survivors might get the idea that retirement would be a good thing.
And if you want to get really nasty, go after the families of the ISI collaberators as well. (Something for the Indians to take care of)
Covert wars of this type are especially nasty.
evilned on August 1, 2008 at 9:06 AM
Well, I don’t think there ISI controls the nukes. But I will be very much surprised if it is under full civilian control either.
I think to make any sense in Pakistan, US should
1. Make peace with tribal.
2. Weaken the religious stranglehold.
Gaurav on August 1, 2008 at 9:07 AM
Who in the CIA or intelligence community is leaking this stuff?
When Gilani was here, someone leaked to the press the story that ISI was infiltrated with Taliban supporters.
I don’t doubt it’s true; but the timing was clearly meant to embarass the White House.
SteveMG on August 1, 2008 at 9:21 AM
the coordination between the US and Pakistan will likely have to end for these kinds of strikes in order to protect operational security
No, no, no! Feed ‘em false information, at least til they wise up. Getting the insurgents to act on bad but tasty information may help in drawing them out into the open in large numbers. Then the usual sorry for dropping a couple of JDAMs on your side of the border, so sorry disclaimer.
I R A Darth Aggie on August 1, 2008 at 9:47 AM
Good post Ed, the problem is that this has been going on since before 9/11. I suppose it is better late than never that we actually realize who our enemy is. India would have told us right off how we might need to proceed in our conflict with Islamic militants.
ThackerAgency on August 1, 2008 at 10:01 AM
That is actually the best way to go about it. Instead of telling them what you know, don’t share intelligence or share false intelligence. Tell them you will be conducting operations in one area but do it in another area.
That’s fighting fire with fire. . . I like your thinking.
ThackerAgency on August 1, 2008 at 10:02 AM
Paying tribute to the land of the pure not working out? Keep looking for moderates, I’m sure they exist. Perhaps they are in the tribal lands.
BL@KBIRD on August 1, 2008 at 10:18 AM
Being that India and Pakistan are in a “cold war” I don’t find this that surprising.
DanStark on August 1, 2008 at 11:33 AM
It’s been painfully obvious that Pakistan (and not just the ISI) has been playing the West for awhile now. Reading them the riot act and otherwise talking sternly to them is unlikely to have much effect. Organizing an attack against India suggests that the ISI is confident that it can thumb its nose at the West with impunity. Also, given the nature of the political balancing required in Pakistan, it is probably unrealistic to expect the government of Pakistan to rein the ISI in (just as it was unrealistic to expect Musharraf to do so previously). Obviously, this sort of behaviour from an “ally” is not acceptable and calls into question whether they really are an “ally” (unless you work for the State Dept.). Presumably, the best way to proceed is a) cut the Pakistanis out of the loop, b) make a big show of developing a much closer alliance with India, and c) act against the ISI directly.
pussum207 on August 1, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Good. President Bush, despite his commitment to fighting the war, kept making friends with the absolute worst people possible. How many times do “allies” like the Pakistanis and Saudis have to betray him and secretly support our enemies before he realizes that he has only one friend in the Middle East, and that’s Israel? If Bush has to be bapped in the face with a newspaper now and then to help him come to that realization, I’m all for it.
R. Waher on August 1, 2008 at 2:50 PM